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| I'm not enjoying me either! |
After reports surfaced that AppleTV used a preseason game between Orlando City SC and the New England Revolution to test-drive the broadcast platform, I’d hoped to use that whet the salivary glands before I sat down to write this preview. I can’t find the re-broadcast, sadly, so that’s a whole goddamn preseason of which I saw neither hide nor hair. And I’m still bitter.
FC Cincinnati kicks off its...shit, fifth(!) MLS season next Saturday at home against Houston Dynamo FC – which, to me, gives them a better than even chance of a positive first step into a season that’s somewhere between flushed and drunk with optimism. Most of (the few) things I’ve read and seen over the offseason take Cincy making the playoffs as either a given, or something close enough to that it squeezes out any daylight. And, so, here's where I step in like an uptight father trying to talk his kid past the “indestructible youth” phase. In other words, what's say we start this preview with a splash of cold water?
Let’s start with a fun-fact: Cincy went into the 2022 playoffs tied with Inter Miami CF for the worst defensive record of all the teams that qualified, with 56 goals allowed over the regular season’s 34 games. No less notably, they allowed more goals over the back nine (aka, the second half of the season) at 29 than they did over the first half, when they allowed 27 goals. The latter set of numbers includes the season-opening massacre at the hands of Austin FC, as well as the two heartbreakers against Club de Foot Montreal; taken together, those three losses accounted for 13 of those 27 goals. That’s not to say the defense didn't get the vapors over the 2nd half of the season – it allowed four goals versus New York City FC and at Miami in the second half of the 2022 season – so much as to acknowledge that, outside a glorious late-summer stretch where they kept three clean sheets and kicked the shit out of all comers, Cincy allowed goals at a steady clip throughout the 2022 season.
That’s a long way of saying Cincinnati scored its way into the 2022 post-season. Just three teams scored more goals – and all of them finished in the top two spots in their respective conferences, along with those bastards, Montreal, who scored one goal less than Cincy with 63.
I don’t bring any of that up to shit on last season – particularly not after three God forsaken seasons of lying prostrate at the bottom of Hell and screaming up to an uperturbed heaven. That Cincinnati not only qualified for the playoffs but carried into the Conference Semifinals lands in the galactic/karmic spectrum between the surreal and the miraculous. But, to return to the analogy, consider the above an exercise in reminding my randy teenage son that brakes exist and that it is perhaps wise to tap them now and again...
Now, the rest of this preview will mention Cincinnati here and there, but it’s mostly about sizing up the opposition – i.e., looking at the question of whether or not I see them making the 2023 playoffs by weighing it against some of the more impressive attempts at self-improvement by and among the rest of the teams in MLS’s Eastern Conference. Before looking ahead, let’s check back to where everyone in the East finished in 2022 (with big-picture details for reference; apologies for any typos!):
1. Philadelphia Union (67 pts., 19-5-10, 72 gf, 26 ga, +46)
2. Club de Foot Montreal (65 pts., 20-9-5, 63 gf, 50 ga, +13)
3. New York City FC (55 pts., 16-11-7, 57 gf, 41 ga, +16)
4. Red Bull New York (53 pts., 15-11-8, 50 gf, 41 ga, +9)
5. FC Cincinnati (49 pts., 12-9-13, 64 gf, 56 ga, +8)
6. Inter Miami CF (48 pts., 14-14-6, 47 gf, 56 ga, -9)
7. Orlando City SC (48 pts., 14-14-6, 44 gf, 53 ga, -9)
PLAYOFF LINE_____________________________
8. Columbus Crew SC (46 pts., 10-8-16, 46 gf, 41 ga, +5)
9. Charlotte FC (42 pts., 13-18-3, 44 gf, 52 ga, -8)
10. New England Revolution (42 pts., 10-12-12, 47 gf, 50 ga, -3)
11. Atlanta United FC (40 pts., 10-14-10, 48 gf, 54 ga, -6)
12. Chicago Fire FC (39 pts., 10-15-9, 39 gf, 48 ga, -9)
13. Toronto FC (34 pts., 9-18-7, 49 gf, 66 ga, -17)
14. DC United (27 pts., 7-21-6, 36 gf, 71 ga, -35)
To acknowledge one thing from the jump: despite the fact that many of the teams below the playoff line remained in the mix till damn near the end of last season, I’d call the gap between Orlando and Charlotte a fair drop-off. Or, to rephrase the (surface-level) obvious, all the teams from Charlotte down have more work to do/demons to exorcise than the teams above them. That doesn’t let the teams from Columbus and above wriggle off the hook – especially the ones that stood pat on a shaky hand, or teams that threw out their hand altogether (looking at you, NYCFC) – so much as it acknowledges and accepts those teams had more of their shit figured out. And that includes FC Cincinnati.
Before kicking around the other teams (and hoping Cincy does the same for all of 2023), let’s look at the changes Cincinnati made over the off-season. Perhaps first and foremost, they held on to the league’s fourth-best attacking corps of Brenner, Luciano Acosta, and Brandon Vazquez. That’s a good if not great thing, obviously, even if Brenner winds up leaving mid-season, but it also brings me to a sort of grand theory/guiding assumption I’ve developed over the years – specifically, one tied to the concept of regression. Too often, I think people talk about this or that player “regressing,” but with too little reference to what might be causing it. The critique can land squarely on the chin sometimes, obviously, but I’d also argue that too little thought goes into whether something else happened – e.g., whether opposing coaches and players have figured out how to manage a given player’s, or even a set of players’, strengths. Now, truly good players (or a set of them) will adjust, come up with new ways to stay dangerous, etc., while great players just carry on, blithely kicking ass and probably not even bothering to take down names. That’s pretty much the sum of my thinking on Vazquez, Acosta and, for as long as he’s around, Brenner: the rest of MLS, and the East in particular, knows more about them as 2023 kicks off than they knew about them even halfway through 2022. So, Question No. 1 is can they remain that half-ridiculously productive and through the length of the season?
FC Cincinnati kicks off its...shit, fifth(!) MLS season next Saturday at home against Houston Dynamo FC – which, to me, gives them a better than even chance of a positive first step into a season that’s somewhere between flushed and drunk with optimism. Most of (the few) things I’ve read and seen over the offseason take Cincy making the playoffs as either a given, or something close enough to that it squeezes out any daylight. And, so, here's where I step in like an uptight father trying to talk his kid past the “indestructible youth” phase. In other words, what's say we start this preview with a splash of cold water?
Let’s start with a fun-fact: Cincy went into the 2022 playoffs tied with Inter Miami CF for the worst defensive record of all the teams that qualified, with 56 goals allowed over the regular season’s 34 games. No less notably, they allowed more goals over the back nine (aka, the second half of the season) at 29 than they did over the first half, when they allowed 27 goals. The latter set of numbers includes the season-opening massacre at the hands of Austin FC, as well as the two heartbreakers against Club de Foot Montreal; taken together, those three losses accounted for 13 of those 27 goals. That’s not to say the defense didn't get the vapors over the 2nd half of the season – it allowed four goals versus New York City FC and at Miami in the second half of the 2022 season – so much as to acknowledge that, outside a glorious late-summer stretch where they kept three clean sheets and kicked the shit out of all comers, Cincy allowed goals at a steady clip throughout the 2022 season.
That’s a long way of saying Cincinnati scored its way into the 2022 post-season. Just three teams scored more goals – and all of them finished in the top two spots in their respective conferences, along with those bastards, Montreal, who scored one goal less than Cincy with 63.
I don’t bring any of that up to shit on last season – particularly not after three God forsaken seasons of lying prostrate at the bottom of Hell and screaming up to an uperturbed heaven. That Cincinnati not only qualified for the playoffs but carried into the Conference Semifinals lands in the galactic/karmic spectrum between the surreal and the miraculous. But, to return to the analogy, consider the above an exercise in reminding my randy teenage son that brakes exist and that it is perhaps wise to tap them now and again...
Now, the rest of this preview will mention Cincinnati here and there, but it’s mostly about sizing up the opposition – i.e., looking at the question of whether or not I see them making the 2023 playoffs by weighing it against some of the more impressive attempts at self-improvement by and among the rest of the teams in MLS’s Eastern Conference. Before looking ahead, let’s check back to where everyone in the East finished in 2022 (with big-picture details for reference; apologies for any typos!):
1. Philadelphia Union (67 pts., 19-5-10, 72 gf, 26 ga, +46)
2. Club de Foot Montreal (65 pts., 20-9-5, 63 gf, 50 ga, +13)
3. New York City FC (55 pts., 16-11-7, 57 gf, 41 ga, +16)
4. Red Bull New York (53 pts., 15-11-8, 50 gf, 41 ga, +9)
5. FC Cincinnati (49 pts., 12-9-13, 64 gf, 56 ga, +8)
6. Inter Miami CF (48 pts., 14-14-6, 47 gf, 56 ga, -9)
7. Orlando City SC (48 pts., 14-14-6, 44 gf, 53 ga, -9)
PLAYOFF LINE_____________________________
8. Columbus Crew SC (46 pts., 10-8-16, 46 gf, 41 ga, +5)
9. Charlotte FC (42 pts., 13-18-3, 44 gf, 52 ga, -8)
10. New England Revolution (42 pts., 10-12-12, 47 gf, 50 ga, -3)
11. Atlanta United FC (40 pts., 10-14-10, 48 gf, 54 ga, -6)
12. Chicago Fire FC (39 pts., 10-15-9, 39 gf, 48 ga, -9)
13. Toronto FC (34 pts., 9-18-7, 49 gf, 66 ga, -17)
14. DC United (27 pts., 7-21-6, 36 gf, 71 ga, -35)
To acknowledge one thing from the jump: despite the fact that many of the teams below the playoff line remained in the mix till damn near the end of last season, I’d call the gap between Orlando and Charlotte a fair drop-off. Or, to rephrase the (surface-level) obvious, all the teams from Charlotte down have more work to do/demons to exorcise than the teams above them. That doesn’t let the teams from Columbus and above wriggle off the hook – especially the ones that stood pat on a shaky hand, or teams that threw out their hand altogether (looking at you, NYCFC) – so much as it acknowledges and accepts those teams had more of their shit figured out. And that includes FC Cincinnati.
Before kicking around the other teams (and hoping Cincy does the same for all of 2023), let’s look at the changes Cincinnati made over the off-season. Perhaps first and foremost, they held on to the league’s fourth-best attacking corps of Brenner, Luciano Acosta, and Brandon Vazquez. That’s a good if not great thing, obviously, even if Brenner winds up leaving mid-season, but it also brings me to a sort of grand theory/guiding assumption I’ve developed over the years – specifically, one tied to the concept of regression. Too often, I think people talk about this or that player “regressing,” but with too little reference to what might be causing it. The critique can land squarely on the chin sometimes, obviously, but I’d also argue that too little thought goes into whether something else happened – e.g., whether opposing coaches and players have figured out how to manage a given player’s, or even a set of players’, strengths. Now, truly good players (or a set of them) will adjust, come up with new ways to stay dangerous, etc., while great players just carry on, blithely kicking ass and probably not even bothering to take down names. That’s pretty much the sum of my thinking on Vazquez, Acosta and, for as long as he’s around, Brenner: the rest of MLS, and the East in particular, knows more about them as 2023 kicks off than they knew about them even halfway through 2022. So, Question No. 1 is can they remain that half-ridiculously productive and through the length of the season?
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| So long, erectile dysfunction. |
But, as discussed above, the real conundrum for Pat Noonan & Co. comes on the defensive side – i.e., did Cincy do enough to improve its overall defensive structure and mechanisms going into 2023 season? The signings of Marco Angulo, Yerson Mosquera and Santiago Arias (he’s official, right?) say they certainly tried. I don’t know enough about any of those players to scream “SUCCESS!” in your ear – I can only pull that off with trades within MLS, and I’d even recommend taking that with some salt – but shaving just six to eight goals off their annual total keep the miracle/karmic rebalancing going and do wonders for Cincy’s overall chances to boot. And I very much mean that in the sense of tournament-style/post-season play. No, it's okay. Go on and dream big dreams. Take your time. And I no judgment...
Right, that’s all I have on FC Cincinnati and the biggest of big pictures. The rest of this post gives over to the (the fuck what?!) 14 other teams that make up MLS’s Eastern Conference for the 2023 regular season. The main question I’ll ask about each is very simple - whether or not I see them as a live threat to Cincy’s chances of making the playoffs – and I'll try to back that up, or just explain the thought process with some short notes. Don’t expect real specifics notes or resort to data, and I will put absolutely no effort into predicting the order I expect the teams to finish – i.e., pay no mind to the order in which I’ve listed them. Overall, I kept my both the notes and conversation loose out of respect for the many, many blind-spots that crowd my field of vision.
With that, let’s dig in. And forgive the lack of a decisive conceptual scheme, but I don't think the situation warrants one. Right, off we go...
The Shoo-Ins
Philadelphia Union: A Juggernaut in Blue and Gold
The runners-up to The Best MLS Cup eva cast off some spare parts – e.g., Paxten Aaronson and Cory Burke (neither of whom will appreciate the label) – and otherwise spent the off-season grabbing better back-stops from all over the league – e.g., Joaquin Torres and Damion Lowe. Between personnel and recent history (i.e., four arguably great seasons), there’s so little reason to believe this team to slip that no one seems to have seriously entertained the possibility. More to the point, all they need to do to pose a problem for Cincinnati is take one of the playoff spots and that would take a magnitude of collapse immense enough to have people mumble, "gee willickers" or something even dumber. With a strong preseason (3-1-2) at their backs - all (or nearly all) against MLS teams – I’m guessing the only thing that’ll keep them out of the playoffs is an outright plague of injuries.
Red Bull New York, Headless Wired-Up Chickens No More?
Is it possible the Red Bulls brain-trust finally caught on to the worst-kept secret in MLS – i.e., the fact they can grind other teams through sheer brute effort, and yet still can't beat them? As a remedy, New York’s redder half loaded up on forwards for 2023 with the addition of Elias Manoel, Belgian DP striker Dante Vanzeir and, hey, Cory Burke. If not even one of them can get on the end of service from the freshly-resigned Lewis Morgan or the returning Luquinhas, that brings its own set of problems. Even a 10-goal forward should get them there and, golly, what that could do for this team. I doubt even one Red Bull fan cheered Aaron Long’s departure, but, with just 41 goals allowed in 2022, they have room to let a couple more slip in. They looked a lot (maybe too much) like themselves in preseason – see, the rash of 1-0 wins, if against junior and/or...offensively-challenged MLS teams (Minnesota and the Galaxy) – but they’ve set themselves up to expand their goal differential in 2023. And their chances of actual success with it.
So, that’s two playoff spots down. Out of seven or eight available, right? (Right?)
Expected Pains in the Ass
Orlando City SC: A Five-(Plus-)-Year Plan to Competitiveness
Yes, Orlando flopped over the 2022 playoff line and, yes, they did it despite a below average defense and an even more below average attack. Since that flirtation with death, they took the gamble of clearing out some key parts of a semi-successful roster – e.g., Ruan, Andres Perea, and, the weirdest for me, Junior Urso – but 1) still returned a competent core and 2) made (some) moves to address their greatest weakness, i.e., scoring. The splashiest move came with the big(ish) siging of winger Martin Ojeda, but there was a semi-serious push to create competition in the attack (except, per Matt Doyle, at forward). What's less clear is if the same can be said for the middle of the field with Urso gone. People got a good week out of Dagur Dan "Dagger Dan" Thorhallsson, but Doyle doesn’t even have down as starting, so that's one point of wonder. Going the other way, this team that has been playoff-competitive over the past three seasons and it’s one that has only one REAL problem to overcome (see above). As such, I’ll be stunned if they don’t take one of those playoff spots. Next...
Nashville SC, The Dully, Duly Competent
No, they didn’t do much in the off-season – e.g., players like Fafa Picault and Nick DePuy read more as competent parts than game-changers – and they’re 1) a league laughingstock for the current state of the Ake Loba situation, and 2) relying on the same attacking unit that has delivered average results for, at a minimum, two seasons running, but goddamn, is this team stubborn. Losing Dave Romney almost certainly complicates that, but Nashville has never not made the playoffs and, given the state of the rest of the Eastern Conference, I’m struggling to see how they miss the post-season. Sure, they may fall through the door and fail to get up after, but that doesn't mean they won't be a great low-scoring fucking boulder between a playoff spot and the rest of the East. And maybe bring a growler of coffee if you to to a game...
Right. That’s four spots taken. Probably. Next...
Potential Pains in the Ass(es)
Club de Foot Montreal, Exploding Assumptions
If I trusted Hernan Losada, Montreal would cavort free and easy among The Shoo-Ins, but he comes in with a bad record at DC and one of those coaching profiles (i.e., hardass) that I don’t trust. Still, this is another team that returned a strong core – e.g., Victor Wanyama, Romell Quioto, Lassi Lappalainen, James Pantemis – and added some fresh bricks to a defense that held steady at close to average in George Campbell and reported Swiss-army-knife defender Aaron Herrera from RSL. They have another big area of concern – specifically, all the good and reliable players they traded for cash during the off-season; Djordje Mihailovic is the big stand-out/hole to fill there – and that, along with Losada, brings out the doubter in me. I expect them to make some mid-season moves, what with all the loose cash floating around, and that’s enough that I strongly suspect they’ll grab a post-season spot...it’s just not enough to make it feel guaranteed.
New York City FC...Any Minute Now...
Few teams did the proverbial “burn it all down” that NYCFC did this past off-season, so put this call 100% down to a combination of history and access to resources. Even if you doubt Maxi Moralez had another great season left in those little legs, replacing his output won’t come easy. With that painted into the back-drop, one has to wonder how they replace other rock-steady players like Anton Tinnerholm, Alex Callens and Sean Johnson. They have real talent left, of course – e.g., Talles Magno, Maxime Chanot, Keaton Parks – but, with the team showing no real signs of getting on with the rebuild, thin as they are all over, and a coach that lacks Ronnie Delia’s magic touch, I can see them bleeding out more points than they can afford on the front end of the season. But, again, if there’s an organization with the ability to find good players more easily than most, it’s NYCFC.
New England Revolution, Bruce’s Last Chance Saloon?
Bobby Wood notwithstanding, I feel like the Revs made enough of the right moves – e.g., signing Latif Blessing to give Matt Polster some help in the heart of the midfield and getting Dave Romney on the books – to return to competitiveness in 2023. They also still have enough issues – e.g. (and I’m cribbing from Matt Doyle on this one) how they line up – and unknowns – e.g., will Dylan Borrero stay healthy/useful? – to keep them out of the running as even a likely playoff team. All that said, an improved defensive spine – which I think they’ll get from Blessing and Romney alone – should keep them in the mix. And they could rise above it with a couple breaks...even if their preseason record (1-2-0) doesn’t bear that out.
Toronto FC: Balancing the Investment
The size of the swing Toronto has to make – adding 14 points to just clear the fucking bar, plus turning around the league’s (literally) third-worst defense – but I’m giving them credit for making the right moves with the signing of Matt Hedges and (with less confidence, because unknown) Sigurd Rosted. Despite not having much left to throw at the attack, Toronto’s front office also engineered a reunion between head coach Bob Bradley and Adama Diomande, a forward he’s really into (even if no one else is). Some long-time names moved on – e.g., Alex Bono, Doneil Henry and Chris Mavinga stand out - but, given the flaming garbage heap that was last season’s defense...can we call those losses? The flying Italians – Lorenzo Insigne and Federido Bernardeschi – remain and both look like players who can make the most out of an improved defense. As such, there’s nothing left but to do it...which it bears pointing out Toronto has rather flamingly failed to do in three of the past five seasons. Bluntly, they have some shit to get past, up to and including how to manage another season if Bradley the Younger starts another season.
Inter Miami CF: Ruby Slippers to Fill
It only takes recalling how much Gonzalo Higuain’s grand-finale goal-scoring spree (see note above about great players) carried Miami into the 2022 playoffs; as noted above, their margin was arguably thinner than Cincinnati’s (though, again, not as thin as Orlando’s). They shedded more players than Higuain in the off-season – e.g., Alejandro Pozuelo (who seemed out of sorts and/or place for a couple now), as well as semi-regulars like Joevin Jones and Damien Lowe – but they covered those (or papered them over) with several replacements. None of them made a bigger splash than swiping Josef Martinez from Atlanta, but even he leaves real questions about how it all fits (i.e., can he play up top with Leo Campana) and who knows how much they’ll get out of (to me) unknowns like left back Franco Negri and Sergii Kryvstov, or even “utility attacker” Nico Stefanelli? With a pair of blowout losses to St. Louis (0-4) and Vasco de Gama (0-3) as the only available indicators, the early signs aren’t great, but Miami has enough good pieces and attempted enough good ideas to keep them in the mix. For me, anyway. This call seems generous, for what it's worth.
Columbus Crew SC: Potemkin Team?
I may be the only fan and follower of MLS who doesn’t credit Wilfried Nancy with coaching powers that border on the mystic, but between last season and the off-season, I’m struggling to see where Columbus squeezes into an increasingly crowded playoff picture. They have good-to-great pieces all over, of course – any team could do worse than having Cucho Hernandez, Lucas Zelarayan, and Darlington Nagbe on their marquee – but they hollowed out their defensive midfield over the off-season and then went one better and shipped Jonathan Mensah to San Jose. Seriously, I just googled “mensah san jose” to confirm that actually happened. That said, and as with NYCFC, one has to think they had a plan in place before letting Mensah go (not to mention Artur and Perry Kitchen), so you kind of wait on that and see if Nancy (or the Columbus front office) can’t dig up what they need to shine. All in all, they match a profile sprinkled in and out of the above - i.e., teams that could bleed points early in the season and beyond the point of recovering.
Atlanta United FC:
Arguably, the biggest acquisition of Atlanta’s offseason was Garth Lagerwey, but I also don’t expect that big swing to land for a couple seasons. More to the point, the spice of “the future is now” hangs over Atlanta. They answered by going (reasonably) big on Greek forward Giorgos Giakoumakis. They also padded a shaky back-line (54 goals allowed) with Luis Abram and tried to make the attack a little smarter by calling in Derrick Etienne, Jr. Whether that's enough to correct an eight-point miss on the 2022 playoffs remains an open question - which applies just as much to a scouting system that keeps gambling on budding hot-shit playmakers from South America. When Matt Doyle sat down to pose his questions to all the teams in the East, his question to Atlanta was how comfortable Thiago Almada will look in a No. 10 jersey. They missed by points more than they did by the numbers in 2022, but Atlanta has taken several stabs at crawling out from under its funk. Near as I can tell, the mending they need goes beyond personnel at this point...but doesn't that also mean that the turn-around could feel like the flip of a switch?
Charlotte FC
Don’t ask me why I buried Charlotte all the way down here, and with the visual implication that they’re the very last team I see having anything like a shot at MLS’s version of success. They didn’t make a ton of moves that don’t scream “depth(!)” (see a couple homegrowns and Generation Adidas signing Hamady Diop), and I’m always dubious about any player after a major injury – in this case, midfielder Ashley Westwood, who came over from England’s Burnley – and the question of whether Enzo Copetti is greater than Daniel Rios looks like an open one to the few observers I follow. For all that, Charlotte didn’t miss by a ton, they had a better goal differential than either Cincinnati or Miami, so a lot of this turns on how far they can push last year’s -8 toward the positives. Poaching Bill Tuiloma from the Portland Timbers (there is no GOD!!) feels like a good start on one end. The extent Copetti can push from the opposite direction could go some distance toward making them competitive.
And You Are...?
DC United, Call Me a Liar. I Dare You.
Insofar as this team seems less perennially doomed than I imagine (DC made the playoffs six of the eight seasons from 2012 to 2019), they have been flaming garbage lately, and 2022 burned most brightly in all the wrong ways. I've seen jokes about the age of the cavalry Wayne Rooney (or his people) called in, an argument I'll sum up in the person of 32-year-old German midfielder Mateusz Klich. For all the capable players in their projected line-up - e.g., Taxi Fountas, Ruan, a couple others - that's a lot of the same team that bled to death on both sides of the field - to the tune of a -35 goal differential, aka, league-leading swings on the wrong side of average all over - but, to strain mightily toward optimism, how much of that was down to last year’s starting goalkeeper, Rafael Romo, a player at least one person called an historical worst signing. [Ed. - You've got one guess who that is.] I just filed DC making the playoffs under "Mission Impossible," but who am I to do deny that the subject of this very post, FC Cincinnati, executed a flip of the same magnitude between 2021 and 2022?
Chicago Fire FC: The (Wholly Inaccurate) Definition of Insanity
While Chicago added some players – Swiss attacking midfielder Maren Haile-Selassie, French right back Arnaud Souquet, and goalkeeper Jeff Gal – they more or less opted to stand pat on a decent defense and a, frankly, shit attack – only now one without Jhon Duran (hello, Aston Villa). And, once again, I invite anyone who has made it this far to look up at everything above and to ask himself/herself whether that is anywhere near enough to put the bodies of all the above in such a state that a team so wholly, totally and thoroughly cursed could crawl over them. I clearly have my doubts...
And that’s it. For all the “aw, shucks, who can really know” slipped into all the above, if I were writing this post about any other team, I would have placed FC Cincinnati somewhere among the Shoo-Ins and Expected Pains in the Ass. Which makes all this a very, very long way of saying that everyone who has them dead-to-rights as a playoff team...well, they probably have it right.
We’ll see how it goes starting in six short days. Looking forward.
Right, that’s all I have on FC Cincinnati and the biggest of big pictures. The rest of this post gives over to the (the fuck what?!) 14 other teams that make up MLS’s Eastern Conference for the 2023 regular season. The main question I’ll ask about each is very simple - whether or not I see them as a live threat to Cincy’s chances of making the playoffs – and I'll try to back that up, or just explain the thought process with some short notes. Don’t expect real specifics notes or resort to data, and I will put absolutely no effort into predicting the order I expect the teams to finish – i.e., pay no mind to the order in which I’ve listed them. Overall, I kept my both the notes and conversation loose out of respect for the many, many blind-spots that crowd my field of vision.
With that, let’s dig in. And forgive the lack of a decisive conceptual scheme, but I don't think the situation warrants one. Right, off we go...
The Shoo-Ins
Philadelphia Union: A Juggernaut in Blue and Gold
The runners-up to The Best MLS Cup eva cast off some spare parts – e.g., Paxten Aaronson and Cory Burke (neither of whom will appreciate the label) – and otherwise spent the off-season grabbing better back-stops from all over the league – e.g., Joaquin Torres and Damion Lowe. Between personnel and recent history (i.e., four arguably great seasons), there’s so little reason to believe this team to slip that no one seems to have seriously entertained the possibility. More to the point, all they need to do to pose a problem for Cincinnati is take one of the playoff spots and that would take a magnitude of collapse immense enough to have people mumble, "gee willickers" or something even dumber. With a strong preseason (3-1-2) at their backs - all (or nearly all) against MLS teams – I’m guessing the only thing that’ll keep them out of the playoffs is an outright plague of injuries.
Red Bull New York, Headless Wired-Up Chickens No More?
Is it possible the Red Bulls brain-trust finally caught on to the worst-kept secret in MLS – i.e., the fact they can grind other teams through sheer brute effort, and yet still can't beat them? As a remedy, New York’s redder half loaded up on forwards for 2023 with the addition of Elias Manoel, Belgian DP striker Dante Vanzeir and, hey, Cory Burke. If not even one of them can get on the end of service from the freshly-resigned Lewis Morgan or the returning Luquinhas, that brings its own set of problems. Even a 10-goal forward should get them there and, golly, what that could do for this team. I doubt even one Red Bull fan cheered Aaron Long’s departure, but, with just 41 goals allowed in 2022, they have room to let a couple more slip in. They looked a lot (maybe too much) like themselves in preseason – see, the rash of 1-0 wins, if against junior and/or...offensively-challenged MLS teams (Minnesota and the Galaxy) – but they’ve set themselves up to expand their goal differential in 2023. And their chances of actual success with it.
So, that’s two playoff spots down. Out of seven or eight available, right? (Right?)
Expected Pains in the Ass
Orlando City SC: A Five-(Plus-)-Year Plan to Competitiveness
Yes, Orlando flopped over the 2022 playoff line and, yes, they did it despite a below average defense and an even more below average attack. Since that flirtation with death, they took the gamble of clearing out some key parts of a semi-successful roster – e.g., Ruan, Andres Perea, and, the weirdest for me, Junior Urso – but 1) still returned a competent core and 2) made (some) moves to address their greatest weakness, i.e., scoring. The splashiest move came with the big(ish) siging of winger Martin Ojeda, but there was a semi-serious push to create competition in the attack (except, per Matt Doyle, at forward). What's less clear is if the same can be said for the middle of the field with Urso gone. People got a good week out of Dagur Dan "Dagger Dan" Thorhallsson, but Doyle doesn’t even have down as starting, so that's one point of wonder. Going the other way, this team that has been playoff-competitive over the past three seasons and it’s one that has only one REAL problem to overcome (see above). As such, I’ll be stunned if they don’t take one of those playoff spots. Next...
Nashville SC, The Dully, Duly Competent
No, they didn’t do much in the off-season – e.g., players like Fafa Picault and Nick DePuy read more as competent parts than game-changers – and they’re 1) a league laughingstock for the current state of the Ake Loba situation, and 2) relying on the same attacking unit that has delivered average results for, at a minimum, two seasons running, but goddamn, is this team stubborn. Losing Dave Romney almost certainly complicates that, but Nashville has never not made the playoffs and, given the state of the rest of the Eastern Conference, I’m struggling to see how they miss the post-season. Sure, they may fall through the door and fail to get up after, but that doesn't mean they won't be a great low-scoring fucking boulder between a playoff spot and the rest of the East. And maybe bring a growler of coffee if you to to a game...
Right. That’s four spots taken. Probably. Next...
Potential Pains in the Ass(es)
Club de Foot Montreal, Exploding Assumptions
If I trusted Hernan Losada, Montreal would cavort free and easy among The Shoo-Ins, but he comes in with a bad record at DC and one of those coaching profiles (i.e., hardass) that I don’t trust. Still, this is another team that returned a strong core – e.g., Victor Wanyama, Romell Quioto, Lassi Lappalainen, James Pantemis – and added some fresh bricks to a defense that held steady at close to average in George Campbell and reported Swiss-army-knife defender Aaron Herrera from RSL. They have another big area of concern – specifically, all the good and reliable players they traded for cash during the off-season; Djordje Mihailovic is the big stand-out/hole to fill there – and that, along with Losada, brings out the doubter in me. I expect them to make some mid-season moves, what with all the loose cash floating around, and that’s enough that I strongly suspect they’ll grab a post-season spot...it’s just not enough to make it feel guaranteed.
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| Or, for you fancy fuckers, intangibles. |
Few teams did the proverbial “burn it all down” that NYCFC did this past off-season, so put this call 100% down to a combination of history and access to resources. Even if you doubt Maxi Moralez had another great season left in those little legs, replacing his output won’t come easy. With that painted into the back-drop, one has to wonder how they replace other rock-steady players like Anton Tinnerholm, Alex Callens and Sean Johnson. They have real talent left, of course – e.g., Talles Magno, Maxime Chanot, Keaton Parks – but, with the team showing no real signs of getting on with the rebuild, thin as they are all over, and a coach that lacks Ronnie Delia’s magic touch, I can see them bleeding out more points than they can afford on the front end of the season. But, again, if there’s an organization with the ability to find good players more easily than most, it’s NYCFC.
New England Revolution, Bruce’s Last Chance Saloon?
Bobby Wood notwithstanding, I feel like the Revs made enough of the right moves – e.g., signing Latif Blessing to give Matt Polster some help in the heart of the midfield and getting Dave Romney on the books – to return to competitiveness in 2023. They also still have enough issues – e.g. (and I’m cribbing from Matt Doyle on this one) how they line up – and unknowns – e.g., will Dylan Borrero stay healthy/useful? – to keep them out of the running as even a likely playoff team. All that said, an improved defensive spine – which I think they’ll get from Blessing and Romney alone – should keep them in the mix. And they could rise above it with a couple breaks...even if their preseason record (1-2-0) doesn’t bear that out.
Toronto FC: Balancing the Investment
The size of the swing Toronto has to make – adding 14 points to just clear the fucking bar, plus turning around the league’s (literally) third-worst defense – but I’m giving them credit for making the right moves with the signing of Matt Hedges and (with less confidence, because unknown) Sigurd Rosted. Despite not having much left to throw at the attack, Toronto’s front office also engineered a reunion between head coach Bob Bradley and Adama Diomande, a forward he’s really into (even if no one else is). Some long-time names moved on – e.g., Alex Bono, Doneil Henry and Chris Mavinga stand out - but, given the flaming garbage heap that was last season’s defense...can we call those losses? The flying Italians – Lorenzo Insigne and Federido Bernardeschi – remain and both look like players who can make the most out of an improved defense. As such, there’s nothing left but to do it...which it bears pointing out Toronto has rather flamingly failed to do in three of the past five seasons. Bluntly, they have some shit to get past, up to and including how to manage another season if Bradley the Younger starts another season.
Inter Miami CF: Ruby Slippers to Fill
It only takes recalling how much Gonzalo Higuain’s grand-finale goal-scoring spree (see note above about great players) carried Miami into the 2022 playoffs; as noted above, their margin was arguably thinner than Cincinnati’s (though, again, not as thin as Orlando’s). They shedded more players than Higuain in the off-season – e.g., Alejandro Pozuelo (who seemed out of sorts and/or place for a couple now), as well as semi-regulars like Joevin Jones and Damien Lowe – but they covered those (or papered them over) with several replacements. None of them made a bigger splash than swiping Josef Martinez from Atlanta, but even he leaves real questions about how it all fits (i.e., can he play up top with Leo Campana) and who knows how much they’ll get out of (to me) unknowns like left back Franco Negri and Sergii Kryvstov, or even “utility attacker” Nico Stefanelli? With a pair of blowout losses to St. Louis (0-4) and Vasco de Gama (0-3) as the only available indicators, the early signs aren’t great, but Miami has enough good pieces and attempted enough good ideas to keep them in the mix. For me, anyway. This call seems generous, for what it's worth.
Columbus Crew SC: Potemkin Team?
I may be the only fan and follower of MLS who doesn’t credit Wilfried Nancy with coaching powers that border on the mystic, but between last season and the off-season, I’m struggling to see where Columbus squeezes into an increasingly crowded playoff picture. They have good-to-great pieces all over, of course – any team could do worse than having Cucho Hernandez, Lucas Zelarayan, and Darlington Nagbe on their marquee – but they hollowed out their defensive midfield over the off-season and then went one better and shipped Jonathan Mensah to San Jose. Seriously, I just googled “mensah san jose” to confirm that actually happened. That said, and as with NYCFC, one has to think they had a plan in place before letting Mensah go (not to mention Artur and Perry Kitchen), so you kind of wait on that and see if Nancy (or the Columbus front office) can’t dig up what they need to shine. All in all, they match a profile sprinkled in and out of the above - i.e., teams that could bleed points early in the season and beyond the point of recovering.
Atlanta United FC:
Arguably, the biggest acquisition of Atlanta’s offseason was Garth Lagerwey, but I also don’t expect that big swing to land for a couple seasons. More to the point, the spice of “the future is now” hangs over Atlanta. They answered by going (reasonably) big on Greek forward Giorgos Giakoumakis. They also padded a shaky back-line (54 goals allowed) with Luis Abram and tried to make the attack a little smarter by calling in Derrick Etienne, Jr. Whether that's enough to correct an eight-point miss on the 2022 playoffs remains an open question - which applies just as much to a scouting system that keeps gambling on budding hot-shit playmakers from South America. When Matt Doyle sat down to pose his questions to all the teams in the East, his question to Atlanta was how comfortable Thiago Almada will look in a No. 10 jersey. They missed by points more than they did by the numbers in 2022, but Atlanta has taken several stabs at crawling out from under its funk. Near as I can tell, the mending they need goes beyond personnel at this point...but doesn't that also mean that the turn-around could feel like the flip of a switch?
Charlotte FC
Don’t ask me why I buried Charlotte all the way down here, and with the visual implication that they’re the very last team I see having anything like a shot at MLS’s version of success. They didn’t make a ton of moves that don’t scream “depth(!)” (see a couple homegrowns and Generation Adidas signing Hamady Diop), and I’m always dubious about any player after a major injury – in this case, midfielder Ashley Westwood, who came over from England’s Burnley – and the question of whether Enzo Copetti is greater than Daniel Rios looks like an open one to the few observers I follow. For all that, Charlotte didn’t miss by a ton, they had a better goal differential than either Cincinnati or Miami, so a lot of this turns on how far they can push last year’s -8 toward the positives. Poaching Bill Tuiloma from the Portland Timbers (there is no GOD!!) feels like a good start on one end. The extent Copetti can push from the opposite direction could go some distance toward making them competitive.
And You Are...?
DC United, Call Me a Liar. I Dare You.
Insofar as this team seems less perennially doomed than I imagine (DC made the playoffs six of the eight seasons from 2012 to 2019), they have been flaming garbage lately, and 2022 burned most brightly in all the wrong ways. I've seen jokes about the age of the cavalry Wayne Rooney (or his people) called in, an argument I'll sum up in the person of 32-year-old German midfielder Mateusz Klich. For all the capable players in their projected line-up - e.g., Taxi Fountas, Ruan, a couple others - that's a lot of the same team that bled to death on both sides of the field - to the tune of a -35 goal differential, aka, league-leading swings on the wrong side of average all over - but, to strain mightily toward optimism, how much of that was down to last year’s starting goalkeeper, Rafael Romo, a player at least one person called an historical worst signing. [Ed. - You've got one guess who that is.] I just filed DC making the playoffs under "Mission Impossible," but who am I to do deny that the subject of this very post, FC Cincinnati, executed a flip of the same magnitude between 2021 and 2022?
Chicago Fire FC: The (Wholly Inaccurate) Definition of Insanity
While Chicago added some players – Swiss attacking midfielder Maren Haile-Selassie, French right back Arnaud Souquet, and goalkeeper Jeff Gal – they more or less opted to stand pat on a decent defense and a, frankly, shit attack – only now one without Jhon Duran (hello, Aston Villa). And, once again, I invite anyone who has made it this far to look up at everything above and to ask himself/herself whether that is anywhere near enough to put the bodies of all the above in such a state that a team so wholly, totally and thoroughly cursed could crawl over them. I clearly have my doubts...
And that’s it. For all the “aw, shucks, who can really know” slipped into all the above, if I were writing this post about any other team, I would have placed FC Cincinnati somewhere among the Shoo-Ins and Expected Pains in the Ass. Which makes all this a very, very long way of saying that everyone who has them dead-to-rights as a playoff team...well, they probably have it right.
We’ll see how it goes starting in six short days. Looking forward.
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