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| Seriously. None taken. |
Recent fans of Major League Soccer should be familiar with the way a bunch of teams settle in the middle of the table and languish there for the remainder of the season, neither rising nor falling, trading wins for losses or just racking up the ties. I feel like the phenomenon has gotten worse in recent seasons, but nostalgia also has its way of fogging the mind.
At any rate, it feels like that bullshit arrived ahead of schedule this season in the form of, get this, eight (8!) teams in the Eastern Conference sitting on 15 points, along with the Portland Timbers in West. The West’s doughy middle is nowhere near as expansive – honestly, I’d locate and limit its center around Portland, Houston Dynamo FC and the Vancouver Whitecaps (both on 14 points) – and they’ve generally done a better job of producing a class of haves and have nots.
That sucks in the real world, of course – no man should collect $5 billion annually while 50,000 families struggle to get food to the table – but a professional sports league needs such a divide to create both grand clashes and epic upsets....have a mentioned that MLS Week 13 looks like a a bit of a dud yet?
In defense of all the above, the East’s big squishy middle – and even the West’s slimmer, better-distributed one – came about precisely due to unexpected losses and surprise wins (see the bless'd, holy Form Guide). For instance, the Philadelphia Union finally started to look like themselves after rattling off three straight wins, while all three of Inter Miami CF, Club de Foot Montreal and Charlotte FC rose to the East’s fatted center by way of more or less unbroken winning streaks. Other teams took the opposite path, sinking into the middle after baiting too many pundits into seeing too much glory in too many games – e.g., Columbus Crew SC – while Minnesota United has fallen straight through the West’s middle and with no bottom yet sighted.
That’s bit chintzy for a review, I get it, but this is one of those damned weeks where the league doesn’t give a man a chance to look around and...really take things in. “MLS Week 13” kicks off 4:30 tomorrow, after all, and MLS Week 14 kicks off just three days later and at the same time, fer Christ’s sakes.
The rest of this post sticks with the broad format of recent weeks (I like this one, for what it’s worth, so cut bait on this series as needed) – i.e., I frame all the games for the upcoming week, but with big plugs of raw data about the two teams involved. If that doesn’t make sense now, it will. Rather than pick through them chronologically, I’m going back to organizing the games in their relative order of importance...which gives me a chance to start with the two teams I love most (though one more than the other), even if only my chosen hometown team gets an actual preview. With that, ready, steady....GO!
Real Salt Lake v Portland Timbers
RSL: 3-6-2, 11 pts. (2-3-1 H; 1-3-1 A), 10 gf, 20 ga (-10); Last 6: WLWTTL
Strength of Schedule: Seeing their trend line makes Portland’s Open Cup loss last week sting a little more...guys, c’mon. Still, they played as tough a stretch as any team in MLS, largely won the games a mid-table team should...and yet they are not mid-table.
Portland: 4-5-3, 15 pts. (3-1-2 H; 1-4-1 A), 18 gf, 19 ga (-1); Last 6: LWLWTW
Strength of Schedule: In a trend so subtle that I think most people have missed it entirely, the Timbers have almost broke even on goal differential. Also, fun fact: Portland is one of ten teams in MLS to have won at least three of their past six games. Don’t know how worthwhile that it is, given that it puts them in company that’s equal parts weird, rarefied, and also Charlotte.
Portland goes in right after posting one of their more encouraging wins of the season, while RSL arrives on the heels of a humbling at home against LAFC. Throw in Portland’s ’s 3-4 esophagus-through-the-asshole loss to RSL in (fucking) Portland in the U.S. Cup, you’ve got yourself a narrative. Moving on to nuts ‘n’ bolts...
At any rate, it feels like that bullshit arrived ahead of schedule this season in the form of, get this, eight (8!) teams in the Eastern Conference sitting on 15 points, along with the Portland Timbers in West. The West’s doughy middle is nowhere near as expansive – honestly, I’d locate and limit its center around Portland, Houston Dynamo FC and the Vancouver Whitecaps (both on 14 points) – and they’ve generally done a better job of producing a class of haves and have nots.
That sucks in the real world, of course – no man should collect $5 billion annually while 50,000 families struggle to get food to the table – but a professional sports league needs such a divide to create both grand clashes and epic upsets....have a mentioned that MLS Week 13 looks like a a bit of a dud yet?
In defense of all the above, the East’s big squishy middle – and even the West’s slimmer, better-distributed one – came about precisely due to unexpected losses and surprise wins (see the bless'd, holy Form Guide). For instance, the Philadelphia Union finally started to look like themselves after rattling off three straight wins, while all three of Inter Miami CF, Club de Foot Montreal and Charlotte FC rose to the East’s fatted center by way of more or less unbroken winning streaks. Other teams took the opposite path, sinking into the middle after baiting too many pundits into seeing too much glory in too many games – e.g., Columbus Crew SC – while Minnesota United has fallen straight through the West’s middle and with no bottom yet sighted.
That’s bit chintzy for a review, I get it, but this is one of those damned weeks where the league doesn’t give a man a chance to look around and...really take things in. “MLS Week 13” kicks off 4:30 tomorrow, after all, and MLS Week 14 kicks off just three days later and at the same time, fer Christ’s sakes.
The rest of this post sticks with the broad format of recent weeks (I like this one, for what it’s worth, so cut bait on this series as needed) – i.e., I frame all the games for the upcoming week, but with big plugs of raw data about the two teams involved. If that doesn’t make sense now, it will. Rather than pick through them chronologically, I’m going back to organizing the games in their relative order of importance...which gives me a chance to start with the two teams I love most (though one more than the other), even if only my chosen hometown team gets an actual preview. With that, ready, steady....GO!
Real Salt Lake v Portland Timbers
RSL: 3-6-2, 11 pts. (2-3-1 H; 1-3-1 A), 10 gf, 20 ga (-10); Last 6: WLWTTL
Strength of Schedule: Seeing their trend line makes Portland’s Open Cup loss last week sting a little more...guys, c’mon. Still, they played as tough a stretch as any team in MLS, largely won the games a mid-table team should...and yet they are not mid-table.
Portland: 4-5-3, 15 pts. (3-1-2 H; 1-4-1 A), 18 gf, 19 ga (-1); Last 6: LWLWTW
Strength of Schedule: In a trend so subtle that I think most people have missed it entirely, the Timbers have almost broke even on goal differential. Also, fun fact: Portland is one of ten teams in MLS to have won at least three of their past six games. Don’t know how worthwhile that it is, given that it puts them in company that’s equal parts weird, rarefied, and also Charlotte.
Portland goes in right after posting one of their more encouraging wins of the season, while RSL arrives on the heels of a humbling at home against LAFC. Throw in Portland’s ’s 3-4 esophagus-through-the-asshole loss to RSL in (fucking) Portland in the U.S. Cup, you’ve got yourself a narrative. Moving on to nuts ‘n’ bolts...
I’ve given RSL a long look...oh, four times so far this season, two during their shell-shocked beginning to 2023 and two more during their mini-revival. They have their moments, certainly, and they’ve got reliable performers like Justen Glad, Jefferson Savarino, Damir Kreilach, as often as he’s healthy (...), and Rubio Rubin. Very much related, if someone asked me to tell them what I think of RSL, I’d immediately ask them what they think of Rubio Rubin; those are the same concepts to me. Against that – and this is why I keep going back to these gargantuan nightmare posts – seeing RSL's actual record changes the question to (sticking with the named player), how good is Rubio Rubin right now? Those 20 goals allowed puts them roughly six goals above the league average (even if they owe eight to back-to-back losses St. Louis and Columbus), but RSL has four more losses where they gave up multiple goals (with a -7 goal differential). I bring all this up to say...this is not a good team. More to the point, RSL is an aggressively average team in a league that demands a little extra for any team that wants to succeed.
That doesn’t mean Portland can’t lose. The altitude erases whatever advantages Portland has, whether theoretical or real; going the other way – and this just came to me, by the way – the Timbers hardly take a lung-busting approach to any game, so does that matter? Nothing – literally nothing – will matter so much as the Timbers’ collective defense, but, so long as that holds (hear me, baby? Hold together) the ol’ absorb-‘n’-counter should keep the legs fresh for attacks. So long as Gio fields last week’s attack, and so long as they can find space in which to operate – and RSL should be desperate enough give it to them after only two points of the last nine available – this game lays out pretty favorably for the Timbers.
As for threats, RSL has the ability to get players in genuinely good spots, even if they don’t do it all the time: the question of what they can do from there is answered with 10 goals for this season. I think the mobility of Savarino, Danny Musovski, and Andres Gomez mixes nicely with Rubin’s work-rate forward style – and, just to note it, Gomez is RSL’s record signing and he’s had some moments - but the Timbers will keep ahead of that to the extent they keep their basic shit together. Sometimes playing not to lose isn't so different from playing to win.
With all that in my head (plus a little more), I think Portland has a fair chance at all three points and a better than even chance at one. And, so long as they look like they have lately, I’m good with that...though the win would be better, obviously and duh.
FC Cincinnati v Club de Foot Montreal
Cincinnati: 7-1-3, 24 pts. (6-0-0 H; 1-1-3 A), 15 gf, 12 ga (+3); Last 6: WWLWTW
Strength of Schedule: [Ed. – They had a bye, so stale comment that still holds.] Nothing to soft, and they’re starting to get 2-1 wins instead of 1-0s...just don’t say “St. Louis” in the mirror three times until that game’s far enough in the past...
Montreal: 5-6-0, 15 pts. (4-1-0 H; 1-5-0 A), 11 gf, 17 ga (-6); Last 6: LLWWWW
Strength of Schedule: Don’t get me wrong, L’Impact deserves the props...but that’s still four of the last six games at home and the last five against some of the most beatable teams of 2023. If you buy Montreal stock, you’d be wise to hedge that one.
Quite possibly the match of the week. It’s hard to think of anything that doesn’t point to a Cincinnati win – and, better, these teams have a late, great history of wild games. A no-brainer for anyone who can key up a double-header...and yet nothing truly, or rather permanently, at stake in this puppy.
That doesn’t mean Portland can’t lose. The altitude erases whatever advantages Portland has, whether theoretical or real; going the other way – and this just came to me, by the way – the Timbers hardly take a lung-busting approach to any game, so does that matter? Nothing – literally nothing – will matter so much as the Timbers’ collective defense, but, so long as that holds (hear me, baby? Hold together) the ol’ absorb-‘n’-counter should keep the legs fresh for attacks. So long as Gio fields last week’s attack, and so long as they can find space in which to operate – and RSL should be desperate enough give it to them after only two points of the last nine available – this game lays out pretty favorably for the Timbers.
As for threats, RSL has the ability to get players in genuinely good spots, even if they don’t do it all the time: the question of what they can do from there is answered with 10 goals for this season. I think the mobility of Savarino, Danny Musovski, and Andres Gomez mixes nicely with Rubin’s work-rate forward style – and, just to note it, Gomez is RSL’s record signing and he’s had some moments - but the Timbers will keep ahead of that to the extent they keep their basic shit together. Sometimes playing not to lose isn't so different from playing to win.
With all that in my head (plus a little more), I think Portland has a fair chance at all three points and a better than even chance at one. And, so long as they look like they have lately, I’m good with that...though the win would be better, obviously and duh.
FC Cincinnati v Club de Foot Montreal
Cincinnati: 7-1-3, 24 pts. (6-0-0 H; 1-1-3 A), 15 gf, 12 ga (+3); Last 6: WWLWTW
Strength of Schedule: [Ed. – They had a bye, so stale comment that still holds.] Nothing to soft, and they’re starting to get 2-1 wins instead of 1-0s...just don’t say “St. Louis” in the mirror three times until that game’s far enough in the past...
Montreal: 5-6-0, 15 pts. (4-1-0 H; 1-5-0 A), 11 gf, 17 ga (-6); Last 6: LLWWWW
Strength of Schedule: Don’t get me wrong, L’Impact deserves the props...but that’s still four of the last six games at home and the last five against some of the most beatable teams of 2023. If you buy Montreal stock, you’d be wise to hedge that one.
Quite possibly the match of the week. It’s hard to think of anything that doesn’t point to a Cincinnati win – and, better, these teams have a late, great history of wild games. A no-brainer for anyone who can key up a double-header...and yet nothing truly, or rather permanently, at stake in this puppy.
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| This, only dysfunctional. |
For what it’s worth, I suddenly wish I’d watched Montreal a time or two. I have an entirely defensible reason for not doing it – they built their winning streak on a boat of dead bodies (e.g., v RBNY, @ SKC, v ORL, v TOR) – but the fact that I didn’t bases anything I can say about them on nothing better than vague familiarity. Glancing at the lineups for the lastthreegames (three separate links in there, btw), I see some familiar names – e.g., Romell Quioto (who they’ve used sparingly, maybe tactically, maybe by injury), Bryce Duke, Aaron Herrera, Victor Wanyama, Rudy Camacho, and I’m seeing more of Chinoso Offor (battering ram) this season. Most of those lineups tell me that Hernan Losada values speed, and that’s my best guess on his Plan A. Without really knowing (covered above), I expect Montreal to play to stay solid at the back and use as much of the field as they can in the attack - make it big, spread it out, set up speed duels everywhere and often as they can, etc.
As for Cincinnati...look, for as long as I’ve watched them, they’ve either been good or very, very bad. That makes them horribly unreliable barometer when it comes to assessing any other team. That’s for anyone wondering why I keep ditching them.
This time, though, it’s good news! Cincinnati is a very solid, well-built, well-coached team; they’re pretty strong at every position and, what’d ya know, perfect at home. FC Cincy should win this game- nothing argues against that, literally – which makes a Montreal win the potential result of any real interest. Five in a row and the latest against a valid Shield contender? As the French Canadians say, probably incorrectly, oh la la.
Columbus Crew SC v Los Angeles Galaxy
Columbus: 4-4-3, 15 pts. (3-1-2 H; 1-3-1 A), 21 gf, 14 ga (+7); Last 6: WWTLLT
Strength of Schedule: They played four of their last six at home and I’m guessing your average MLS punter would have bet on them to win three of ‘em. They won one. The hype-train needs more coal...
Galaxy: 2-6-3, 9 pts. (2-3-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 10 gf, 18 ga (-8); Last 6: LLWLLW
Strength of Schedule: Beating San Jose easily counts as their high-water mark for 2023 – even with the ‘Quakes dismal road record in the mix. Given the “climbing-a-greased-pole” vibe of the Western Conference, it wouldn’t make much to left them to relevance. Say, winning home games (two in their last four...wooo. Joe-momentum).
The short version for this one – hell, the only version – if Columbus can’t win this thing....yeah, I’d start to worry. LA remains must-beat material, particularly on the road, until they get out of the basement. And, to tap the sign one more time, those are the story lines a league/MLS Week needs. People talk about game-states and this isn’t so different. Call it league-states. Anyway....stakes!
Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF
Nashville: 5-3-4, 19 pts. (4-1-2 H; 1-2-2 A), 15 gf, 7 ga (+8); Last 6: TLTWWT
Strength of Schedule: “They’ll have to pay back the home/road imbalance, but that defensive record speaks well of their chances.” That was last week’s note. Quietly turning “workman-like” into an art-form.
Miami: 5-6-0, 15 pts. (4-2-0 H; 1-4-0 A), 12 gf, 12 ga (0); Last 6: LLLWWW
Strength of Schedule: After some weeks in the wilderness, Miami peels off three straight wins. All against respected teams (e.g., @ CLB, v ATL, v NE). Roll ‘em, Pete (or Phil). Fuck it...
I’m watching for two things: another multi-goal win at home for Nashville, or any kind of points from Miami, if only in the event Nashville scores. Miami has returned to being one of the most interesting teams in MLS, so I’d call that a further indication of life for them. A low-scoring loss is just Nashville at home for the 100th fucking time.
Atlanta United FC v Colorado Rapids
Atlanta: 5-4-3, 18 pts. (4-1-1 H; 1-3-2 A), 21 gf, 21 ga (0); Last 6: TTWLLL
Strength of Schedule: Still four road games in the mix, some quite challenging (e.g., @ NYC, @ NSH), but that’s still three straight losses, including their first at home. Against Charlotte. That’s five points of the last 18 on offer, trends going the wrong way and sinking, sinking, sinking.
Colorado: 2-4-6, 12 pts. (0-2-3 H; 2-2-3 A), 10 gf, 14 ga (-4); Last 6: WTTTWL
Strength of Schedule: That home record’s getting worrying – almost as much as just two wins in 12 games – but they’ve got six of the next ten games at home to get it sorted. Don’t think they will...
A big one for Atlanta – who have a couple reasons, both perceptually and factually to get real agitated about a win - but kind of a freebie for Colorado. They can gamble on stealing this one, and with no one giving it a second thought if they don’t. It’s not like the rest of the West’s doughy middle have clear plans to go anywhere.
Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire FC
Charlotte: 4-5-3, 15 pts. (2-2-2 H; 2-3-1 A), 16 gf, 22 ga (-6); Last 6: LTWLWW
Strength of Schedule: They Other Queen City has pulled off a succession of ambushes – Atlanta away was just the last one. Presently in the thick of the Great Eastern Conference Demolition Derby.
Chicago: 3-3-5, 14 pts. (2-0-5 H; 1-3-0 A), 14 gf, 16 ga (-2); Last 6: WTLTLW
Strength of Schedule: I mostly think it’s funny the beat St. Louis twice in one week. They can join the Shit-Stack of Mediocrity directly above them, which looks more like the dogpile to summit Mt. Everest with each passing week.
The sad thing is everyone will say, “yeah, but Chicago” if Charlotte wins this one. And that’s kinda bullshit given the number of quality wins they’ve racked up. Sadly, I can see a mirror-image reaction if Chicago wins it- i.e., "well, there goes Charlotte falling back to Earth," etc. The sneaky thing is that Charlotte has more to gain and lose.
Philadelphia Union v DC United
Philly: 5-4-2, 15 pts. (3-1-1 H; 2-3-1 A), 17 gf, 14 ga (+3); Last 6: TLTWWW
Strength of Schedule: They look more like a team that shook off CCL legs every week, but any good (rested?), well-built team gets at least seven points of nine out of the Union’s last thee (v TOR, @ RBNY, @ COL). Which makes it to their credit they got all nine.
DC: 4-5-3, 15 pts. (2-2-2 H; 2-3-1 A), 16 gf, 16 ga (0); Last 6: LWWWLT
Strength of Schedule: In the middle of a quick visit through hell (@ CIN, v NSH, @ PHI), so it’ll be interesting to see if they can get back to picking up points on the other side (see the six games after Philly on the road).
The only interesting result that could come out of this is DC win – then again, wouldn’t the mere possibility of that put a little more shine on a Philly win? So, yeah, this one has decent stakes.
Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City
LAFC: 6-1-3, 21 pts. (4-0-0 H; 2-1-3 A), 20 gf, 8 ga (+12); Last 6: TWWTLW
Strength of Schedule: I’d expect any “good” team to pick up the majority of points from the league darling’s last six games, but there’s no question they improved their road record in style last weekend.
SKC: 2-7-3, 3 pts. (1-3-1 H; 1-4-2 A), 8 gf, 16 ga (-8); Last 6: LLLLWW
Strength of Schedule: Between venue (@ SEA) and magnitude (v MIN), I’m willing to reset expectations to see what they do over the next six games (@ LAFC, @ STL, v POR, v FCD, @ VAN, v ATX). Won’t be easy, but that’s the point.
I, like you, expect an actual ritual slaughter. The extent to which SKC defies that is the only thing worth watching for.
Seattle Sounders v Austin FC
Seattle: 7-3-2, 23 pts. (4-1-1 H; 3-2-1 A), 19 gf, 9 ga (+10); Last 6: WLWTLW
Strength of Schedule: Winning in a tough venue (@ HOU) makes this win look more like a recovery from their late stumbles. And they’ve got four winnable games (v ATX, @ VAN, v RBNY, v SJ) ahead. The next several weeks should see them battling with Cincy and New England to stay closest to the Shield.
Austin: 2-5-4, 10 pts. (1-2-3 H; 1-3-1 A), 10 gf, 17 ga (-7); Last 6: LTLTTL
Strength of Schedule: They’ve traveled a tough road, honestly, and hosting Dallas doesn’t give a lot of relief. And yet...
Once again, there is an expected plot for this game and something people will mock as stranger than fiction, and therefore a fluke...but, oh, the comedy if Austin wins....
As for Cincinnati...look, for as long as I’ve watched them, they’ve either been good or very, very bad. That makes them horribly unreliable barometer when it comes to assessing any other team. That’s for anyone wondering why I keep ditching them.
This time, though, it’s good news! Cincinnati is a very solid, well-built, well-coached team; they’re pretty strong at every position and, what’d ya know, perfect at home. FC Cincy should win this game- nothing argues against that, literally – which makes a Montreal win the potential result of any real interest. Five in a row and the latest against a valid Shield contender? As the French Canadians say, probably incorrectly, oh la la.
Columbus Crew SC v Los Angeles Galaxy
Columbus: 4-4-3, 15 pts. (3-1-2 H; 1-3-1 A), 21 gf, 14 ga (+7); Last 6: WWTLLT
Strength of Schedule: They played four of their last six at home and I’m guessing your average MLS punter would have bet on them to win three of ‘em. They won one. The hype-train needs more coal...
Galaxy: 2-6-3, 9 pts. (2-3-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 10 gf, 18 ga (-8); Last 6: LLWLLW
Strength of Schedule: Beating San Jose easily counts as their high-water mark for 2023 – even with the ‘Quakes dismal road record in the mix. Given the “climbing-a-greased-pole” vibe of the Western Conference, it wouldn’t make much to left them to relevance. Say, winning home games (two in their last four...wooo. Joe-momentum).
The short version for this one – hell, the only version – if Columbus can’t win this thing....yeah, I’d start to worry. LA remains must-beat material, particularly on the road, until they get out of the basement. And, to tap the sign one more time, those are the story lines a league/MLS Week needs. People talk about game-states and this isn’t so different. Call it league-states. Anyway....stakes!
Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF
Nashville: 5-3-4, 19 pts. (4-1-2 H; 1-2-2 A), 15 gf, 7 ga (+8); Last 6: TLTWWT
Strength of Schedule: “They’ll have to pay back the home/road imbalance, but that defensive record speaks well of their chances.” That was last week’s note. Quietly turning “workman-like” into an art-form.
Miami: 5-6-0, 15 pts. (4-2-0 H; 1-4-0 A), 12 gf, 12 ga (0); Last 6: LLLWWW
Strength of Schedule: After some weeks in the wilderness, Miami peels off three straight wins. All against respected teams (e.g., @ CLB, v ATL, v NE). Roll ‘em, Pete (or Phil). Fuck it...
I’m watching for two things: another multi-goal win at home for Nashville, or any kind of points from Miami, if only in the event Nashville scores. Miami has returned to being one of the most interesting teams in MLS, so I’d call that a further indication of life for them. A low-scoring loss is just Nashville at home for the 100th fucking time.
Atlanta United FC v Colorado Rapids
Atlanta: 5-4-3, 18 pts. (4-1-1 H; 1-3-2 A), 21 gf, 21 ga (0); Last 6: TTWLLL
Strength of Schedule: Still four road games in the mix, some quite challenging (e.g., @ NYC, @ NSH), but that’s still three straight losses, including their first at home. Against Charlotte. That’s five points of the last 18 on offer, trends going the wrong way and sinking, sinking, sinking.
Colorado: 2-4-6, 12 pts. (0-2-3 H; 2-2-3 A), 10 gf, 14 ga (-4); Last 6: WTTTWL
Strength of Schedule: That home record’s getting worrying – almost as much as just two wins in 12 games – but they’ve got six of the next ten games at home to get it sorted. Don’t think they will...
A big one for Atlanta – who have a couple reasons, both perceptually and factually to get real agitated about a win - but kind of a freebie for Colorado. They can gamble on stealing this one, and with no one giving it a second thought if they don’t. It’s not like the rest of the West’s doughy middle have clear plans to go anywhere.
Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire FC
Charlotte: 4-5-3, 15 pts. (2-2-2 H; 2-3-1 A), 16 gf, 22 ga (-6); Last 6: LTWLWW
Strength of Schedule: They Other Queen City has pulled off a succession of ambushes – Atlanta away was just the last one. Presently in the thick of the Great Eastern Conference Demolition Derby.
Chicago: 3-3-5, 14 pts. (2-0-5 H; 1-3-0 A), 14 gf, 16 ga (-2); Last 6: WTLTLW
Strength of Schedule: I mostly think it’s funny the beat St. Louis twice in one week. They can join the Shit-Stack of Mediocrity directly above them, which looks more like the dogpile to summit Mt. Everest with each passing week.
The sad thing is everyone will say, “yeah, but Chicago” if Charlotte wins this one. And that’s kinda bullshit given the number of quality wins they’ve racked up. Sadly, I can see a mirror-image reaction if Chicago wins it- i.e., "well, there goes Charlotte falling back to Earth," etc. The sneaky thing is that Charlotte has more to gain and lose.
Philadelphia Union v DC United
Philly: 5-4-2, 15 pts. (3-1-1 H; 2-3-1 A), 17 gf, 14 ga (+3); Last 6: TLTWWW
Strength of Schedule: They look more like a team that shook off CCL legs every week, but any good (rested?), well-built team gets at least seven points of nine out of the Union’s last thee (v TOR, @ RBNY, @ COL). Which makes it to their credit they got all nine.
DC: 4-5-3, 15 pts. (2-2-2 H; 2-3-1 A), 16 gf, 16 ga (0); Last 6: LWWWLT
Strength of Schedule: In the middle of a quick visit through hell (@ CIN, v NSH, @ PHI), so it’ll be interesting to see if they can get back to picking up points on the other side (see the six games after Philly on the road).
The only interesting result that could come out of this is DC win – then again, wouldn’t the mere possibility of that put a little more shine on a Philly win? So, yeah, this one has decent stakes.
Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City
LAFC: 6-1-3, 21 pts. (4-0-0 H; 2-1-3 A), 20 gf, 8 ga (+12); Last 6: TWWTLW
Strength of Schedule: I’d expect any “good” team to pick up the majority of points from the league darling’s last six games, but there’s no question they improved their road record in style last weekend.
SKC: 2-7-3, 3 pts. (1-3-1 H; 1-4-2 A), 8 gf, 16 ga (-8); Last 6: LLLLWW
Strength of Schedule: Between venue (@ SEA) and magnitude (v MIN), I’m willing to reset expectations to see what they do over the next six games (@ LAFC, @ STL, v POR, v FCD, @ VAN, v ATX). Won’t be easy, but that’s the point.
I, like you, expect an actual ritual slaughter. The extent to which SKC defies that is the only thing worth watching for.
Seattle Sounders v Austin FC
Seattle: 7-3-2, 23 pts. (4-1-1 H; 3-2-1 A), 19 gf, 9 ga (+10); Last 6: WLWTLW
Strength of Schedule: Winning in a tough venue (@ HOU) makes this win look more like a recovery from their late stumbles. And they’ve got four winnable games (v ATX, @ VAN, v RBNY, v SJ) ahead. The next several weeks should see them battling with Cincy and New England to stay closest to the Shield.
Austin: 2-5-4, 10 pts. (1-2-3 H; 1-3-1 A), 10 gf, 17 ga (-7); Last 6: LTLTTL
Strength of Schedule: They’ve traveled a tough road, honestly, and hosting Dallas doesn’t give a lot of relief. And yet...
Once again, there is an expected plot for this game and something people will mock as stranger than fiction, and therefore a fluke...but, oh, the comedy if Austin wins....
 |
| The goal. Also, the Swedish Chef getting stoned. |
FC Dallas v Vancouver Whitecaps
Dallas: 5-3-3, 15 pts. (3-1-1 H; 2-2-2 A), 13 gf, 11 ga (+2); Last 6: TWWLTW
Strength of Schedule: What looked like a rough patch got smoothed out by other teams’ woes (e.g., @ NYC, @ MIN), but they still picked up 11 of 18 with four games on the road – i.e., they’re making their luck.
Vancouver: 3-3-5, 14 pts. (3-1-2 H; 0-2-3 A), 15 gf, 12 ga (+3); Last 6: WWTTWL
Strength of Schedule: I have extended notes on their last game and what I think about them, but they’re a damn good case against “the underlying numbers” theory.
Another one guaranteed to produce an abundance of “meh.” Of all the possible results, I’d rank a blow-out by Dallas the chef’s kiss of results, but the universe of ways to write off the rest outnumber the variety of possible results. For all, this game has a date with boredom written all over it.
Minnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo FC
Minnesota: 3-5-3, 12 pts. (0-1-3 H; 3-4-0 A), 10 gf, 14 ga (-4); Last 6: LLLTL
Strength of Schedule: Anyone have Bebe Reynoso’s number? I heard rumors. How did a team that started as well as they did go to flaming shit? It wasn’t the schedule. Tell you that much. Even with four road games. Stunning flame-out, really.
Houston: 4-4-2, 14 pts. (4-1-1 H; 0-3-1 A), 10 gf, 9 ga (+1); Last 6: LWTWTL
Strength of Schedule: The perfect home record peaced out of the last two and they play four of their next five on the road. Time to see what they can grind out on the road.
Another date with boredom, but also what feels like Houston’s best shot to get their first win on the road. Minnesota’s last six games are, like, performance art bad.
Orlando City SC v New York City FC
Orlando: 4-4-3, 15 pts. (2-3-1 H; 2-1-2 A), 12 gf, 14 ga (-2); Last 6: LWLWLT
Strength of Schedule: The only thing that really jumps out: a team this mediocre should not be good as they are on the road and/or randomly.
NYC: 4-5-3, 15 pts. (4-0-1 H; 0-5-2 A), 14 gf, 15 ga (-1); Last 6: TWWLLL
Strength of Schedule: I don’t think people look to the most obvious answer often enough: NYC is bad on the road; they played their last three games on the road. You can still drill down for other root causes, but...doesn’t that seem like a good place to start?
This continues the pattern of results that won’t budge the needle for either team. Anything they do is just more them.
Toronto FC v Red Bull New York
TFC: 2-4-6, 12 pts. (2-1-3 H; 0-3-3 A), 13 gf, 17 ga (-4); Last 6: TTLWLL
Strength of Schedule: They walked a hard road, fer reals, but also didn’t get much out of it. I’ve heard a handful of excuses, but...at what point does investing in the wrong personnel (or riding an asset beyond its best years) amount to roster-construction malpractice?
RBNY: 2-4-6, 12 pts. (2-1-3 H; 0-3-3 A), 8 gf, 11 ga (-3); Last 6: TTLTLW
Strength of Schedule: It takes a rather impressive amount of futility – and where they shouldn’t be struggling through it – to make a rivalry win a complete and utter non-event.
Who gives a flopping fuck what happens? Honestly. Awful game.
That's the slate. Let's see what reality and VAR does to it.
Dallas: 5-3-3, 15 pts. (3-1-1 H; 2-2-2 A), 13 gf, 11 ga (+2); Last 6: TWWLTW
Strength of Schedule: What looked like a rough patch got smoothed out by other teams’ woes (e.g., @ NYC, @ MIN), but they still picked up 11 of 18 with four games on the road – i.e., they’re making their luck.
Vancouver: 3-3-5, 14 pts. (3-1-2 H; 0-2-3 A), 15 gf, 12 ga (+3); Last 6: WWTTWL
Strength of Schedule: I have extended notes on their last game and what I think about them, but they’re a damn good case against “the underlying numbers” theory.
Another one guaranteed to produce an abundance of “meh.” Of all the possible results, I’d rank a blow-out by Dallas the chef’s kiss of results, but the universe of ways to write off the rest outnumber the variety of possible results. For all, this game has a date with boredom written all over it.
Minnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo FC
Minnesota: 3-5-3, 12 pts. (0-1-3 H; 3-4-0 A), 10 gf, 14 ga (-4); Last 6: LLLTL
Strength of Schedule: Anyone have Bebe Reynoso’s number? I heard rumors. How did a team that started as well as they did go to flaming shit? It wasn’t the schedule. Tell you that much. Even with four road games. Stunning flame-out, really.
Houston: 4-4-2, 14 pts. (4-1-1 H; 0-3-1 A), 10 gf, 9 ga (+1); Last 6: LWTWTL
Strength of Schedule: The perfect home record peaced out of the last two and they play four of their next five on the road. Time to see what they can grind out on the road.
Another date with boredom, but also what feels like Houston’s best shot to get their first win on the road. Minnesota’s last six games are, like, performance art bad.
Orlando City SC v New York City FC
Orlando: 4-4-3, 15 pts. (2-3-1 H; 2-1-2 A), 12 gf, 14 ga (-2); Last 6: LWLWLT
Strength of Schedule: The only thing that really jumps out: a team this mediocre should not be good as they are on the road and/or randomly.
NYC: 4-5-3, 15 pts. (4-0-1 H; 0-5-2 A), 14 gf, 15 ga (-1); Last 6: TWWLLL
Strength of Schedule: I don’t think people look to the most obvious answer often enough: NYC is bad on the road; they played their last three games on the road. You can still drill down for other root causes, but...doesn’t that seem like a good place to start?
This continues the pattern of results that won’t budge the needle for either team. Anything they do is just more them.
Toronto FC v Red Bull New York
TFC: 2-4-6, 12 pts. (2-1-3 H; 0-3-3 A), 13 gf, 17 ga (-4); Last 6: TTLWLL
Strength of Schedule: They walked a hard road, fer reals, but also didn’t get much out of it. I’ve heard a handful of excuses, but...at what point does investing in the wrong personnel (or riding an asset beyond its best years) amount to roster-construction malpractice?
RBNY: 2-4-6, 12 pts. (2-1-3 H; 0-3-3 A), 8 gf, 11 ga (-3); Last 6: TTLTLW
Strength of Schedule: It takes a rather impressive amount of futility – and where they shouldn’t be struggling through it – to make a rivalry win a complete and utter non-event.
Who gives a flopping fuck what happens? Honestly. Awful game.
That's the slate. Let's see what reality and VAR does to it.
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