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| And we are sad about it. |
Just a wee wrinkle to the formula for this week’s Weakly: I’m making these posts more of a dialogue with the previous week’s post (here you go, for reference). So long as these Weakly reviews amount to an examination of expectations, why not build the Grand Narrative from that?
Also, and to spare all y’all a little time, I’m going to reduce the review notes for MLS Week 11 into a succession of bullet-points with some links tossed in. With that, let’s have...
The Story of MLS Week 11...
...and in the order they played the games.
New York City fed the doubting rumors about their road form with a 3-2 road loss at a Charlotte FC team suddenly showing the faintest of pulses; Enzo Copetti scored a nice pair.
FC Cincinnati keeps doing the business at home – where they are perfect, btw – with a 2-1 win over DC United (and Alvaro Barreal's net-buster deserves a shout!), while DC reverted to playing the valiant losers...and here’s where I acknowledge that, yes, we have no bananas...I mean, I won’t be doing stand-alone Cincinnati posts anymore. No audience, you see...
Inter Miami CF both exceeded expectations in their 2-1 home win over Atlanta United FC and supported my theory about Atlanta’s shaky defense – i.e., it’s the second shakiest in the East (hello, Charlotte!) and tied for the second-worst defense in MLS with...fuck me, the Portland Timbers. Josef Martinez stepped into history (100 goals scored) with a fun one.
Did Club de Foot Montreal turn the corner with its 2-0 home win versus Orlando City SC, or has Orlando simply become the living symbol for MLS famed unpredictability?
Red Bull New York has looked nothing if not beatable all season long, but would a CCL-weary Philadelphia Union team be the victims they need? Nope! Philly won 1-0 on the road and Gerhard Struber hit the road this morning. Tidy!
The San Jose Earthquakes also got a potentially innervated side, but, as noted below, I think that only helped them see out their 2-1 home win over Los Angeles FC.
I called a New England Revolution win the thing to look for during their visit to Toronto FC, and that’s exactly what they got. One reason: a lack of support among TFC’s defense on both goals.
Houston Dynamo FC v Real Salt Lake ended exactly where I thought it would – a goal-less draw; RSL appears to have reclaimed that “never-say-die” force multiplier that keeps them performing over their heads.
Nashville SC’s 3-0 win over a Chicago Fire FC team that stumbled hard enough to send its coach tumbling into unemployment lent support to the rumor they have, in fact, found a higher gear. More below...
The Colorado Rapids responded to my lowered expectations of them by kicking the shit out of the Los Angeles Galaxy in Los Angeles, which result confirmed my expectations of the Galaxy.
...I don’t want to talk about Portland’s 2-2 draw at home(!!!) against Austin FC. I’ve already relived it
The Vancouver Whitecaps answered my statement that nothing but a win would do by staying one goal ahead of Minnesota United FC in a 3-2 victory at home. More below...
Finally, the Seattle Sounders gave every team that lost this week a way to say, “hey, could be worse,” with a 1-2 loss in Seattle that gave Sporting Kansas City team its first win of 2023. Oh, how we laughed...and we’ll have to wait to see what happens between FC Dallas and St. Louis CITY FC because that game got abandoned due to severe weather.
That’s the big picture. I chose to do some deeper digging on three of the games above to see how well those fit the grand narrative. Those are:
San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Los Angeles FC[Minutes 1-35, 75-90+]
To anyone wondering, yeah, San Jose looked good for it. They played through LAFC’s thorough and fairly lively press through the opening minutes; sometimes they even broke it, creating good, high-percentage chances that LAFC didn’t actually stop (e.g., the time an overall excellent Jamiro Monteiro missed an open goal from one step from its mouth after another well-worked move). Better, they scored two team goals – the first, in particular, gave a live demonstration of how much damage Cade Cowell (absolute wrecking ball), Jeremy Ebobisse and Cristian Espinoza can create on their own. As much as anything else, I have a lot of faith in San Jose’s middle three, Monteiro, Jackson Yueill and Carlos Gruezo; solid defensively, to a man, and tidy passers to boot. As for LAFC, first, it’s possibly, even likely, I missed their best moments (and they did out-shoot San Jose, and by a stretch). They didn’t look tired over the opening 35 minutes – they looked impressively fresh, tbh – but San Jose flustered them to where they couldn’t get that plant foot under; that includes even the time before their equalizer, for what it’s worth,; LAFC never looked the dominant team. And, yeah, it’s possible the CCL robbed them of the legs they’d need to make that final push at the end, but...
Verdict: Believe it. San Jose have reasonable depth and a map that’s taking them to good places...but LAFC is still LAFC, at least until further notice.
Nashville SC 3-0 Chicago Fire FC[Minutes 30-45+; 60-90, with the odd taps of the +10 button]
Maybe it wasn’t as impressive as the 30 shots (11 on goal; so many others blocked) from Nashville, or the 5.0 xG they posted and the shot map that looks like a dartboard with a tidy cluster, made it out to be. They still left Chicago within touching distance of bupkis, thereby giving Hany Mukhtar the full length of the match, more or less, to find his hat trick. And Nashville’s depth is equal parts real and complementary to a freaky degree – e.g., Gary Smith started Dax McCarty and Anibal Godoy and later replaced them with Sean Davis and Jan Gregus; by the same token, Smith had Fafa Picault to spell Jacob Shaffelburg after a game that helped Nashville almost as much as Mukhtar. Also noteworthy: Chicago rested a lot of starters so they could throw as much as possible into their upcoming U.S. Open Cup match (stiff game ahead v St. Louis, btw), but they deserve some credit for staying viable, if only by the score-sheet into the 70th minute. I can’t say the Fire ever got all the way going – and Xherdan Shaqiri...the guy throttled more plays than he made; I got nuthin’ – but I’d still watch 'em just to see Brian Gutierrez play (kid’s a blast) and Kei Kamara running down history.
Verdict: Keep an eye on Nashville; they have potential trophy team for as long as Mukhtar stays whole.
Also, and to spare all y’all a little time, I’m going to reduce the review notes for MLS Week 11 into a succession of bullet-points with some links tossed in. With that, let’s have...
The Story of MLS Week 11...
...and in the order they played the games.
New York City fed the doubting rumors about their road form with a 3-2 road loss at a Charlotte FC team suddenly showing the faintest of pulses; Enzo Copetti scored a nice pair.
FC Cincinnati keeps doing the business at home – where they are perfect, btw – with a 2-1 win over DC United (and Alvaro Barreal's net-buster deserves a shout!), while DC reverted to playing the valiant losers...and here’s where I acknowledge that, yes, we have no bananas...I mean, I won’t be doing stand-alone Cincinnati posts anymore. No audience, you see...
Inter Miami CF both exceeded expectations in their 2-1 home win over Atlanta United FC and supported my theory about Atlanta’s shaky defense – i.e., it’s the second shakiest in the East (hello, Charlotte!) and tied for the second-worst defense in MLS with...fuck me, the Portland Timbers. Josef Martinez stepped into history (100 goals scored) with a fun one.
Did Club de Foot Montreal turn the corner with its 2-0 home win versus Orlando City SC, or has Orlando simply become the living symbol for MLS famed unpredictability?
Red Bull New York has looked nothing if not beatable all season long, but would a CCL-weary Philadelphia Union team be the victims they need? Nope! Philly won 1-0 on the road and Gerhard Struber hit the road this morning. Tidy!
The San Jose Earthquakes also got a potentially innervated side, but, as noted below, I think that only helped them see out their 2-1 home win over Los Angeles FC.
I called a New England Revolution win the thing to look for during their visit to Toronto FC, and that’s exactly what they got. One reason: a lack of support among TFC’s defense on both goals.
Houston Dynamo FC v Real Salt Lake ended exactly where I thought it would – a goal-less draw; RSL appears to have reclaimed that “never-say-die” force multiplier that keeps them performing over their heads.
Nashville SC’s 3-0 win over a Chicago Fire FC team that stumbled hard enough to send its coach tumbling into unemployment lent support to the rumor they have, in fact, found a higher gear. More below...
The Colorado Rapids responded to my lowered expectations of them by kicking the shit out of the Los Angeles Galaxy in Los Angeles, which result confirmed my expectations of the Galaxy.
...I don’t want to talk about Portland’s 2-2 draw at home(!!!) against Austin FC. I’ve already relived it
The Vancouver Whitecaps answered my statement that nothing but a win would do by staying one goal ahead of Minnesota United FC in a 3-2 victory at home. More below...
Finally, the Seattle Sounders gave every team that lost this week a way to say, “hey, could be worse,” with a 1-2 loss in Seattle that gave Sporting Kansas City team its first win of 2023. Oh, how we laughed...and we’ll have to wait to see what happens between FC Dallas and St. Louis CITY FC because that game got abandoned due to severe weather.
That’s the big picture. I chose to do some deeper digging on three of the games above to see how well those fit the grand narrative. Those are:
San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Los Angeles FC[Minutes 1-35, 75-90+]
To anyone wondering, yeah, San Jose looked good for it. They played through LAFC’s thorough and fairly lively press through the opening minutes; sometimes they even broke it, creating good, high-percentage chances that LAFC didn’t actually stop (e.g., the time an overall excellent Jamiro Monteiro missed an open goal from one step from its mouth after another well-worked move). Better, they scored two team goals – the first, in particular, gave a live demonstration of how much damage Cade Cowell (absolute wrecking ball), Jeremy Ebobisse and Cristian Espinoza can create on their own. As much as anything else, I have a lot of faith in San Jose’s middle three, Monteiro, Jackson Yueill and Carlos Gruezo; solid defensively, to a man, and tidy passers to boot. As for LAFC, first, it’s possibly, even likely, I missed their best moments (and they did out-shoot San Jose, and by a stretch). They didn’t look tired over the opening 35 minutes – they looked impressively fresh, tbh – but San Jose flustered them to where they couldn’t get that plant foot under; that includes even the time before their equalizer, for what it’s worth,; LAFC never looked the dominant team. And, yeah, it’s possible the CCL robbed them of the legs they’d need to make that final push at the end, but...
Verdict: Believe it. San Jose have reasonable depth and a map that’s taking them to good places...but LAFC is still LAFC, at least until further notice.
Nashville SC 3-0 Chicago Fire FC[Minutes 30-45+; 60-90, with the odd taps of the +10 button]
Maybe it wasn’t as impressive as the 30 shots (11 on goal; so many others blocked) from Nashville, or the 5.0 xG they posted and the shot map that looks like a dartboard with a tidy cluster, made it out to be. They still left Chicago within touching distance of bupkis, thereby giving Hany Mukhtar the full length of the match, more or less, to find his hat trick. And Nashville’s depth is equal parts real and complementary to a freaky degree – e.g., Gary Smith started Dax McCarty and Anibal Godoy and later replaced them with Sean Davis and Jan Gregus; by the same token, Smith had Fafa Picault to spell Jacob Shaffelburg after a game that helped Nashville almost as much as Mukhtar. Also noteworthy: Chicago rested a lot of starters so they could throw as much as possible into their upcoming U.S. Open Cup match (stiff game ahead v St. Louis, btw), but they deserve some credit for staying viable, if only by the score-sheet into the 70th minute. I can’t say the Fire ever got all the way going – and Xherdan Shaqiri...the guy throttled more plays than he made; I got nuthin’ – but I’d still watch 'em just to see Brian Gutierrez play (kid’s a blast) and Kei Kamara running down history.
Verdict: Keep an eye on Nashville; they have potential trophy team for as long as Mukhtar stays whole.
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| Look, there's a correct way to do this... |
Vancouver Whitecaps 3-2 Minnesota United FC[Minutes 15-40; 45-65]
They matched garbage goals – one was so ugly it knocked Brian White out of the game – but, to confirm what ya heard, Minnesota handed the ‘Caps this win with two mistakes at the back, e.g., Wil Trapp getting caught on a bad trap and a Robin Lod providing a secondary assist to the wrong team. Even if I can’t say it caused either goal directly, Vancouver’s press did play a role...in the form of vibes? I guess? (Something for Portland to mind next weekend). The Loons didn’t look too bad – Lod even helped them pull one back with a brave pass into Sang Bin Jeong (and that he converted) – but a team can shoot its foot only so many times per 90 and hope for anything but nothing. If pressed to name the better side, Vancouver gets the nod; Andres Cubas dominated the middle – he’s hyper-efficient, with a good engine - but they’ve got enough skill (Julian Gressel) and gut-busting effort, if a little unrefined (Ryan Gauld), which means they can survive a lot of things. Tough result to parse, honestly, but I’ll do my best in the Portland preview below.
Verdict: I’d say the ‘Caps earned it more than they deserved it – and vice versa for Minnesota.
And, for what it’s worth, Cincinnati was good for their win. They can’t lose at home and attack keeps getting better...I get it, the break-ups abrupt, but...the sooner I stop taking the calls, the sooner I can heal. Love you guys....
Now, to take this one all the way home, here are notes on all the games in MLS Week 12. And I dropped the pretense of calling these previews because most of the content looks back anyway.
Chicago Fire FC v St Louis CITY FC
Chicago: 2-3-5, 11 pts. (1-0-5 H; 1-3-0 A), 13 gf, 16 ga (-3); Last 6: TWTLTL
Strength of Schedule: Nashville away was always a tough ask, but I’m sticking with last week’s argument: the Fire should be at least two points better than they are (see, home draws v DC, PHI and RBNY).
St. Louis: 6-3-1, 19 pts. (3-2-0 H; 3-1-1 A), 22 gf, 12 ga (+10); Last 6: WLLWTL
Strength of Schedule: [Ed. – This is stale because they didn’t play.] Put it this way: what I saw from them in the losses to Seattle and Portland, with the draw at Colorado squeezed in, knocked the wheels off the CITY hype-train for me.
Chicago hosts St. Louis twice in the next week, games that will decide, once and for all, which city threw the greatest World’s Fair. Sure, Chicago rested starters, but it’s not like they were killing it when the starters, y’know, started. That said, interim management always seems to jazz teams up, so it wouldn’t totally shock me to see Chicago getting “spastic puppy” points out of one of these games...but I’m still putting my money’s still on four points for St. Louis.
Atlanta United FC v Charlotte FC
Atlanta: 5-3-3, 18 pts. (4-0-1 H; 1-3-2 A), 20 gf, 18 ga (+2); Last 6: WTTWLL
Strength of Schedule: Four road games, sure, but a team can’t arrive at “good” unless they start beating some of the softer touches on the road – something Atlanta hasn’t done since Week 3 v...hey, Charlotte.
Charlotte: 3-5-3, 12 pts. (2-2-2 H; 1-3-1 A), 13 gf, 21 ga (-8); Last 6: TLTWLW
Strength of Schedule: Harder at the back-end than the front – and yet they got six points out of the former and just two out of the latter. That’s with two wins at home over credible teams (v CLB, v NYC) thrown in.
A must-win for Atlanta, simple as that, because the pack is coming...which makes it an opportunity for Charlotte. The question, in my mind, is whether they can get in a track-meet (i.e., a high-scoring game) against Atlanta.
Columbus Crew SC v Orlando City SC
Columbus: 4-4-2, 14 pts. (3-1-1 H; 1-3-1 A), 19 gf, 12 ga (+7); Last 6: WWWTLL
Strength of Schedule: [Ed. – This is stale because they didn’t play.] After tearing teams up at the front end of the above sample – decent ones, too – they ended that with a road loss at Charlotte and a home loss, their first, versus a battered Miami team. I got nuthin’.
Orlando: 4-4-2, 14 pts. (2-3-1 H; 2-1-1 A), 10 gf, 12 ga (-2); Last 6: WLWLWL
Strength of Schedule: Unchanged from last week’s note: their fans must hate them...two eminently winnable home games (v CLT and v DC) end in losses? Their Week 11 loss suggests a team that’s all over the map, but not in the fun way.
A tricky call, and to the point where all I want to say is, serve it up. It’s pretty much flip a coin with Orlando and Columbus deciding to tank after getting Cucho Hernandez back. In the barest predictive terms, I see three points going to whichever team happens to score first.
DC United v Nashville SC
DC: 4-5-2, 14 pts. (2-2-1 H; 2-3-1 A), 15 gf, 15 ga (0); Last 6: TLWWWL
Strength of Schedule: All Eastern Conference, and they’re largely keeping up expectations for a competitive team – and there’s no shame losing away to Cincinnati, not when literally everyone else has. I’d call the home loss versus Columbus the only blemish.
Nashville: 5-3-3, 18 pts. (4-1-2 H; 1-2-1 A), 14 gf, 6 ga (+8); Last 6: WTLTWW
Strength of Schedule: They’re taking advantage of home games, for sure – they hosted seven games and traveled for four - and they scored multiple goals in every home game they’ve won. They’ll have to pay back the home/road imbalance, but that defensive record speaks well of their chances.
DC played Cincy without players who seemed like they’d help – e.g., Andy Najar and Pedro Santos (even missing a step) – but Nashville does seem to have its shit dialed in right now. More than most teams DC have beat, certainly. A DC win would make for a compelling story, but I’d see a Nashville win as a more interesting result. I don’t think they’ll tie, for what it’s worth.
Inter Miami CF v New England Revolution
Miami: 4-6-0, 12 pts. (3-2-0 H; 1-4-0 A), 10 gf, 11 ga (-1); Last 6: LLLLWW
Strength of Schedule: Between venue (e.g., @ CIN, @ HOU, @ CLB) and opposition (v FCD), just north of median. Arguably worth monitoring again for signs of life.
NE: 7-1-3, 24 pts. (4-0-2 H; 3-1-1 A), 18 gf, 9 ga (+9); Last 6: TWTWTW
Strength of Schedule: Beating the teams they should regardless of venue, but the thing to watch is what they do against in-form teams. Pointing that out feels silly against the league’s top team, but they really are picking up low-hanging wins and playing even with the tougher teams.
At the risk of biting too hard on a narrative, a Miami win would not only (and probably) lift them back into the playoff picture, it would resemble momentum. I suspect that’ll take the Revs putting a foot wrong, i.e., something this team’s not built to do...so, I guess that’s back arguing that a good result for Miami could make them look like they’ve figured out the post-Gregore, post-Jean Mota experience...which put them in the desert for a while.
They matched garbage goals – one was so ugly it knocked Brian White out of the game – but, to confirm what ya heard, Minnesota handed the ‘Caps this win with two mistakes at the back, e.g., Wil Trapp getting caught on a bad trap and a Robin Lod providing a secondary assist to the wrong team. Even if I can’t say it caused either goal directly, Vancouver’s press did play a role...in the form of vibes? I guess? (Something for Portland to mind next weekend). The Loons didn’t look too bad – Lod even helped them pull one back with a brave pass into Sang Bin Jeong (and that he converted) – but a team can shoot its foot only so many times per 90 and hope for anything but nothing. If pressed to name the better side, Vancouver gets the nod; Andres Cubas dominated the middle – he’s hyper-efficient, with a good engine - but they’ve got enough skill (Julian Gressel) and gut-busting effort, if a little unrefined (Ryan Gauld), which means they can survive a lot of things. Tough result to parse, honestly, but I’ll do my best in the Portland preview below.
Verdict: I’d say the ‘Caps earned it more than they deserved it – and vice versa for Minnesota.
And, for what it’s worth, Cincinnati was good for their win. They can’t lose at home and attack keeps getting better...I get it, the break-ups abrupt, but...the sooner I stop taking the calls, the sooner I can heal. Love you guys....
Now, to take this one all the way home, here are notes on all the games in MLS Week 12. And I dropped the pretense of calling these previews because most of the content looks back anyway.
Chicago Fire FC v St Louis CITY FC
Chicago: 2-3-5, 11 pts. (1-0-5 H; 1-3-0 A), 13 gf, 16 ga (-3); Last 6: TWTLTL
Strength of Schedule: Nashville away was always a tough ask, but I’m sticking with last week’s argument: the Fire should be at least two points better than they are (see, home draws v DC, PHI and RBNY).
St. Louis: 6-3-1, 19 pts. (3-2-0 H; 3-1-1 A), 22 gf, 12 ga (+10); Last 6: WLLWTL
Strength of Schedule: [Ed. – This is stale because they didn’t play.] Put it this way: what I saw from them in the losses to Seattle and Portland, with the draw at Colorado squeezed in, knocked the wheels off the CITY hype-train for me.
Chicago hosts St. Louis twice in the next week, games that will decide, once and for all, which city threw the greatest World’s Fair. Sure, Chicago rested starters, but it’s not like they were killing it when the starters, y’know, started. That said, interim management always seems to jazz teams up, so it wouldn’t totally shock me to see Chicago getting “spastic puppy” points out of one of these games...but I’m still putting my money’s still on four points for St. Louis.
Atlanta United FC v Charlotte FC
Atlanta: 5-3-3, 18 pts. (4-0-1 H; 1-3-2 A), 20 gf, 18 ga (+2); Last 6: WTTWLL
Strength of Schedule: Four road games, sure, but a team can’t arrive at “good” unless they start beating some of the softer touches on the road – something Atlanta hasn’t done since Week 3 v...hey, Charlotte.
Charlotte: 3-5-3, 12 pts. (2-2-2 H; 1-3-1 A), 13 gf, 21 ga (-8); Last 6: TLTWLW
Strength of Schedule: Harder at the back-end than the front – and yet they got six points out of the former and just two out of the latter. That’s with two wins at home over credible teams (v CLB, v NYC) thrown in.
A must-win for Atlanta, simple as that, because the pack is coming...which makes it an opportunity for Charlotte. The question, in my mind, is whether they can get in a track-meet (i.e., a high-scoring game) against Atlanta.
Columbus Crew SC v Orlando City SC
Columbus: 4-4-2, 14 pts. (3-1-1 H; 1-3-1 A), 19 gf, 12 ga (+7); Last 6: WWWTLL
Strength of Schedule: [Ed. – This is stale because they didn’t play.] After tearing teams up at the front end of the above sample – decent ones, too – they ended that with a road loss at Charlotte and a home loss, their first, versus a battered Miami team. I got nuthin’.
Orlando: 4-4-2, 14 pts. (2-3-1 H; 2-1-1 A), 10 gf, 12 ga (-2); Last 6: WLWLWL
Strength of Schedule: Unchanged from last week’s note: their fans must hate them...two eminently winnable home games (v CLT and v DC) end in losses? Their Week 11 loss suggests a team that’s all over the map, but not in the fun way.
A tricky call, and to the point where all I want to say is, serve it up. It’s pretty much flip a coin with Orlando and Columbus deciding to tank after getting Cucho Hernandez back. In the barest predictive terms, I see three points going to whichever team happens to score first.
DC United v Nashville SC
DC: 4-5-2, 14 pts. (2-2-1 H; 2-3-1 A), 15 gf, 15 ga (0); Last 6: TLWWWL
Strength of Schedule: All Eastern Conference, and they’re largely keeping up expectations for a competitive team – and there’s no shame losing away to Cincinnati, not when literally everyone else has. I’d call the home loss versus Columbus the only blemish.
Nashville: 5-3-3, 18 pts. (4-1-2 H; 1-2-1 A), 14 gf, 6 ga (+8); Last 6: WTLTWW
Strength of Schedule: They’re taking advantage of home games, for sure – they hosted seven games and traveled for four - and they scored multiple goals in every home game they’ve won. They’ll have to pay back the home/road imbalance, but that defensive record speaks well of their chances.
DC played Cincy without players who seemed like they’d help – e.g., Andy Najar and Pedro Santos (even missing a step) – but Nashville does seem to have its shit dialed in right now. More than most teams DC have beat, certainly. A DC win would make for a compelling story, but I’d see a Nashville win as a more interesting result. I don’t think they’ll tie, for what it’s worth.
Inter Miami CF v New England Revolution
Miami: 4-6-0, 12 pts. (3-2-0 H; 1-4-0 A), 10 gf, 11 ga (-1); Last 6: LLLLWW
Strength of Schedule: Between venue (e.g., @ CIN, @ HOU, @ CLB) and opposition (v FCD), just north of median. Arguably worth monitoring again for signs of life.
NE: 7-1-3, 24 pts. (4-0-2 H; 3-1-1 A), 18 gf, 9 ga (+9); Last 6: TWTWTW
Strength of Schedule: Beating the teams they should regardless of venue, but the thing to watch is what they do against in-form teams. Pointing that out feels silly against the league’s top team, but they really are picking up low-hanging wins and playing even with the tougher teams.
At the risk of biting too hard on a narrative, a Miami win would not only (and probably) lift them back into the playoff picture, it would resemble momentum. I suspect that’ll take the Revs putting a foot wrong, i.e., something this team’s not built to do...so, I guess that’s back arguing that a good result for Miami could make them look like they’ve figured out the post-Gregore, post-Jean Mota experience...which put them in the desert for a while.
Club de Foot Montreal v Toronto FC
Montreal: 4-6-0, 12 pts. (3-1-0 H; 1-5-0 A), 9 gf, 17 ga (-8); Last 6: LLLWWW
Strength of Schedule: Slowly getting back into it, if on the back of three teams with various problems (v RBNY, @ SKC, v ORL; the first two suck and the latter can’t find consistency). Necessary and useful, but they’ll have to keep doing it on the road in four of their next six games.
TFC: 2-3-6, 12 pts. (2-1-3 H; 0-2-3 A), 13 gf, 15 ga (-2); Last 6: TTTLWL
Strength of Schedule: Tougher at the end (@ PHI, v NYC, v NE) than at the beginning (e.g., v CLT, v ATL) and those dropped points just came back to haunt them.
All signs point to Montreal winning – what does Toronto look like, after all, but the next struggling team – and the only argument I can muster against are all the shots the Reds fired against New England, if in a losing effort. All the trends point to either a draw or a Montreal win....so how am I supposed to take a Toronto win as anything but one of those flukes MLS delivers like babies?
Red Bull New York v New York City FC
RBNY: 1-4-6, 9 pts. (1-1-3 H; 0-3-3 A), 7 gf, 11 ga (-4); Last 6: LTTLTL
Strength of Schedule: Their final solace – an unbeaten home record – falls. At this point, the Red Bulls can’t win games; they can only not lose them. And that has them on the bottom of the East.
NYC: 4-4-3, 15 pts. (4-0-1 H; 0-4-2 A), 14 gf, 14 ga (0); Last 6: TTWWLL
Strength of Schedule: Less important, as I see it, than the fairly strong argument made by their last two games – i.e., that they are simply bad on the road. @ TOR and @ CLT, fer crissakes...
To lay all my cards on the table, I believe the Red Bulls’ problems run deeper than Stuber and that NYC has enough solidity to keep them out....as so many have before them. Not this week, Red Bulls...
Austin FC v FC Dallas
Austin: 2-4-4, 10 pts. (1-1-3 H; 1-3-1 A), 10 gf, 16 ga (-6); Last 6: TLTLTT
Strength of Schedule: They’re simply not picking up meaningful points. Every home game they played in that stretch was winnable (v COL, v VAN, v SJ), and yet they didn’t.
Dallas: 4-3-3, 12 pts. (3-1-1 H; 1-2-2 A), 12 gf, 11 ga (+1); Last 6: LTWWLT
Strength of Schedule: Pretty rough, decent teams with four on the road – to name three @ LAFC, @NYC, and @ MIN – which makes sense of the slowdown...then again, how much does Dallas ever heat up?
A big game for both teams, but probably a bigger deal for Dallas. You can write off an Austin win with “yeah, but it was at home,” but a win for Dallas not only pushes them up the table, it supports the argument that it took some tough (or once tough) teams to slow them down.
Houston Dynamo FC v Seattle Sounders
Houston: 4-3-2, 14 pts. (4-0-1 H; 0-3-1 A), 10 gf, 8 ga (+2); Last 6: WLWTWT
Strength of Schedule: Where they play matters more than who so far, even if half that could follow from playing easier teams at home and better ones away. And yet they should be disappointed with the last one.
Seattle: 6-3-2, 20 pts. (4-1-1 H; 2-2-1 A), 18 gf, 9 ga (+9); Last 6: WWLWTL
Strength of Schedule: The wins (e.g., @ LAG, v STL and v MIN) suddenly look low-hanging, while the other results (@ POR, @ RSL, v SKC) look like blown opportunities. Trips up their narrative a bit.
Seattle will come in fired up...and I expect Houston to handle that all right. My real question is whether Houston can score. Otherwise, this becomes a grind that sees either a draw or Seattle score and win...YES, I get how literal that reads, but consider it from the side of, do you see Houston running up the score against Seattle, even in Houston? Also, wouldn’t that be wild?
Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC
SKC: 1-7-3, 3 pts. (0-3-1 H; 1-4-2 A), 5 gf, 16 ga (-11); Last 6: TLLLLW
Strength of Schedule: Still not really relevant, BUT, they did play four of their last six on the road and their win over Seattle in Seattle was hands-down the best gag of Week 11.
Minnesota: 3-4-3, 12 pts. (0-1-3 H; 3-3-0 A), 10 gf, 11 ga (-1); Last 6: WLLLTL
Strength of Schedule: They’ve piled on road games recently (four of six), but they’ve also piled on the Ls. Also, they hadn’t scored more than one since Week 3...and yet they still lost in Week 11.
This one pushes into wrestling-over-a-dead-rat territory, but you can’t say this one doesn’t have stakes. How badly does SKC want to get that second straight win and....wait, what’s that feeling (“the ancients used to call it ‘mo-ment-OOM’”) and how badly does Minnesota want to do something besides fail?
Colorado Rapids v Philadelphia Union
Colorado: 2-3-6, 121 pts. (0-1-3 H; 2-2-3 A), 9 gf, 12 ga (-3); Last 6: TWTTTW
Strength of Schedule: Still a lot of @s in their schedule, but they’re also unbeaten since Week 4 and they’re punching points out of your weaker teams (e.g., SKC and LAG) on the road. If they can get that home form rolling...
Philly: 4-4-2, 14 pts. (3-1-1 H; 1-3-1 A), 15 gf, 13 ga (+2); Last 6: LTLTWW
Strength of Schedule: Take Cincy away out of the mix, pretty damn easy. Still, they’ve won their past two, raising the possibility they’ve put the CCL distraction behind them.
We’ll get one game if Philly has, in fact, put the CCL distraction behind them; we’ll get another if the Rapids have figured out life after Jack Price – and if you’ve seen that Connor Ronan guy play, you know what I’m talking about. For all that, my money’s on Philly either winning or forcing (another) draw.
Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC
RSL: 3-5-2, 11 pts. (2-2-1 H; 1-3-1 A), 10 gf, 17 ga (-7); Last 6: LWLWTT
Strength of Schedule: From last week: “last week’s draw at Seattle feels like a big step to straightening out the defense that allowed almost half their goals allowed in back-to-back 0-4 losses.” RSL has rediscovered its fight, apparently. Just in time for a USOC game at Portland...
LAFC: 5-1-3, 18 pts. (4-0-0 H; 1-1-3 A), 17 gf, 8 ga (+9); Last 6: WTWWTL
Strength of Schedule: LAFC came into Week 11 with three low-scoring/non-scoring draws on the road in their past: they left it with their first loss of the season – and that was on the road as well. “CCL legs” are almost certainly involved, but the pattern still bears noting.
The league darlings (LAFC) lost their first game last weekend, which makes the idea of them losing again seem outlandish, exotic even. And yet this is another case of, can you see you them running up the score, only with RSL in the ask. Their big picture says no – they put three past Charlotte and San Jose, but just get held to zeros by both Seattle (in Utah) and Houston (in Texas). Makes you think LAFC will win it or no one will...which would make an RSL win noteworthy.
Portland Timbers v Vancouver Whitecaps
Portland: 3-5-3, 12 pts. (2-1-2 H; 1-4-1 A), 15 gf, 18 ga (-3); Last 6: TLWLWT
Strength of Schedule: In their defense (to which I will always come), fairly tough. Getting Austin at home gave them their cleanest shot at three points in weeks. And yet...
Vancouver: 3-2-5, 14 pts. (3-1-2 H; 0-1-3 A), 14 gf, 9 ga (+5); Last 6: TWWTTW
Strength of Schedule: Make that 10 points of 12 from their last four home games. The ‘Caps are making a good case that they’ve found their feet.
First, thank gods this game ain’t in Vancouver. Second, so much will depend on that little red wagon and who Portland gets back from injury. Look, as noted in my extended notes (see above, thing about reliving the experience), I see things I like about Portland’s starting XI, even the current one. Evander’s finally getting there, for one (and it’s possible he’s just that languid out there), and I like Juan David Mosquera (though I think they need to set things up to unleash him more), Cristian Paredes (rangy AF, getting bolder), Diego Chara (ol’ reliable), Dario Zuparic, Zac McGraw (Scylla and Charybdis), Aljaz Ivacic, and...well, the rest grow on me more and more as the coaching staff figures out what to do with them and they perform accordingly. Now, here’s what they’re up against....
The ’Caps are not an exciting team. They’re a bunch of grinders who, by and large, get results by doing the simple things well. As noted above, they have talent. Gressel’s a nicely mobile threat from wide spaces, channels and set-pieces, Gauld will run himself into the ground if it means beating you by half an inch, they’re clearly keeping enough out between Tristan Blackmon, Ranko Vesellnovic, and “Nick Rimando of the J-League” (seriously, I saw that once), Yohei Takaoka (who I believe is still settling, despite looking great in moments). For what it’s worth, I think the ‘Caps get the “solid, unremarkable” rap from the rest of its roster, if with honorable mention to Simon Becher, who seems to have the kind of goal-scorer’s knack that could fuck up a defense as spacy and, “but I thought you had it” as Portland’s. White’s injury looked like a vicious Charlie-horse, so he may be available and his mobility will test the Timbers back line, but, based on everything I’ve seen from them, managing Vancouver looks like keeping on top of a lot of very obvious things done well. Portland’s chances to get three very important points from this game turn on them doing that one crucial thing right and, and doing it for over every 90+ minutes of the game.
Los Angeles Galaxy v San Jose Earthquakes
Galaxy: 1-6-3, 6 pts. (1-3-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 8 gf, 17 ga (-9); Last 6: LLLWLL
Strength of Schedule: They played a pretty tough stretch...and got their asses kicked all the way through it. No bueno...
SJ: 5-3-3, 18 pts. (5-0-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 15 gf, 14 ga (+1); Last 6: WTWLTW
Strength of Schedule: However one characterizes it, the ‘Quakes are taking care of it. Their Week 11 win puts a real Seal of Approval on their home record.
If nothing else, the Galaxy can take comfort from San Jose’s complete inability to do anything good on the road, even if that runs headlong against their failure to do anything good anywhere. All in all, the Galaxy looks like more of a mess every time I watch them, while San Jose looks more like a team of players who know their roles and play them well. Nothing will surprise me, but I’m looking for a San Jose win.
Just like last week, we’ll see how all those notes hold up on the other side.
Montreal: 4-6-0, 12 pts. (3-1-0 H; 1-5-0 A), 9 gf, 17 ga (-8); Last 6: LLLWWW
Strength of Schedule: Slowly getting back into it, if on the back of three teams with various problems (v RBNY, @ SKC, v ORL; the first two suck and the latter can’t find consistency). Necessary and useful, but they’ll have to keep doing it on the road in four of their next six games.
TFC: 2-3-6, 12 pts. (2-1-3 H; 0-2-3 A), 13 gf, 15 ga (-2); Last 6: TTTLWL
Strength of Schedule: Tougher at the end (@ PHI, v NYC, v NE) than at the beginning (e.g., v CLT, v ATL) and those dropped points just came back to haunt them.
All signs point to Montreal winning – what does Toronto look like, after all, but the next struggling team – and the only argument I can muster against are all the shots the Reds fired against New England, if in a losing effort. All the trends point to either a draw or a Montreal win....so how am I supposed to take a Toronto win as anything but one of those flukes MLS delivers like babies?
Red Bull New York v New York City FC
RBNY: 1-4-6, 9 pts. (1-1-3 H; 0-3-3 A), 7 gf, 11 ga (-4); Last 6: LTTLTL
Strength of Schedule: Their final solace – an unbeaten home record – falls. At this point, the Red Bulls can’t win games; they can only not lose them. And that has them on the bottom of the East.
NYC: 4-4-3, 15 pts. (4-0-1 H; 0-4-2 A), 14 gf, 14 ga (0); Last 6: TTWWLL
Strength of Schedule: Less important, as I see it, than the fairly strong argument made by their last two games – i.e., that they are simply bad on the road. @ TOR and @ CLT, fer crissakes...
To lay all my cards on the table, I believe the Red Bulls’ problems run deeper than Stuber and that NYC has enough solidity to keep them out....as so many have before them. Not this week, Red Bulls...
Austin FC v FC Dallas
Austin: 2-4-4, 10 pts. (1-1-3 H; 1-3-1 A), 10 gf, 16 ga (-6); Last 6: TLTLTT
Strength of Schedule: They’re simply not picking up meaningful points. Every home game they played in that stretch was winnable (v COL, v VAN, v SJ), and yet they didn’t.
Dallas: 4-3-3, 12 pts. (3-1-1 H; 1-2-2 A), 12 gf, 11 ga (+1); Last 6: LTWWLT
Strength of Schedule: Pretty rough, decent teams with four on the road – to name three @ LAFC, @NYC, and @ MIN – which makes sense of the slowdown...then again, how much does Dallas ever heat up?
A big game for both teams, but probably a bigger deal for Dallas. You can write off an Austin win with “yeah, but it was at home,” but a win for Dallas not only pushes them up the table, it supports the argument that it took some tough (or once tough) teams to slow them down.
Houston Dynamo FC v Seattle Sounders
Houston: 4-3-2, 14 pts. (4-0-1 H; 0-3-1 A), 10 gf, 8 ga (+2); Last 6: WLWTWT
Strength of Schedule: Where they play matters more than who so far, even if half that could follow from playing easier teams at home and better ones away. And yet they should be disappointed with the last one.
Seattle: 6-3-2, 20 pts. (4-1-1 H; 2-2-1 A), 18 gf, 9 ga (+9); Last 6: WWLWTL
Strength of Schedule: The wins (e.g., @ LAG, v STL and v MIN) suddenly look low-hanging, while the other results (@ POR, @ RSL, v SKC) look like blown opportunities. Trips up their narrative a bit.
Seattle will come in fired up...and I expect Houston to handle that all right. My real question is whether Houston can score. Otherwise, this becomes a grind that sees either a draw or Seattle score and win...YES, I get how literal that reads, but consider it from the side of, do you see Houston running up the score against Seattle, even in Houston? Also, wouldn’t that be wild?
Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC
SKC: 1-7-3, 3 pts. (0-3-1 H; 1-4-2 A), 5 gf, 16 ga (-11); Last 6: TLLLLW
Strength of Schedule: Still not really relevant, BUT, they did play four of their last six on the road and their win over Seattle in Seattle was hands-down the best gag of Week 11.
Minnesota: 3-4-3, 12 pts. (0-1-3 H; 3-3-0 A), 10 gf, 11 ga (-1); Last 6: WLLLTL
Strength of Schedule: They’ve piled on road games recently (four of six), but they’ve also piled on the Ls. Also, they hadn’t scored more than one since Week 3...and yet they still lost in Week 11.
This one pushes into wrestling-over-a-dead-rat territory, but you can’t say this one doesn’t have stakes. How badly does SKC want to get that second straight win and....wait, what’s that feeling (“the ancients used to call it ‘mo-ment-OOM’”) and how badly does Minnesota want to do something besides fail?
Colorado Rapids v Philadelphia Union
Colorado: 2-3-6, 121 pts. (0-1-3 H; 2-2-3 A), 9 gf, 12 ga (-3); Last 6: TWTTTW
Strength of Schedule: Still a lot of @s in their schedule, but they’re also unbeaten since Week 4 and they’re punching points out of your weaker teams (e.g., SKC and LAG) on the road. If they can get that home form rolling...
Philly: 4-4-2, 14 pts. (3-1-1 H; 1-3-1 A), 15 gf, 13 ga (+2); Last 6: LTLTWW
Strength of Schedule: Take Cincy away out of the mix, pretty damn easy. Still, they’ve won their past two, raising the possibility they’ve put the CCL distraction behind them.
We’ll get one game if Philly has, in fact, put the CCL distraction behind them; we’ll get another if the Rapids have figured out life after Jack Price – and if you’ve seen that Connor Ronan guy play, you know what I’m talking about. For all that, my money’s on Philly either winning or forcing (another) draw.
Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC
RSL: 3-5-2, 11 pts. (2-2-1 H; 1-3-1 A), 10 gf, 17 ga (-7); Last 6: LWLWTT
Strength of Schedule: From last week: “last week’s draw at Seattle feels like a big step to straightening out the defense that allowed almost half their goals allowed in back-to-back 0-4 losses.” RSL has rediscovered its fight, apparently. Just in time for a USOC game at Portland...
LAFC: 5-1-3, 18 pts. (4-0-0 H; 1-1-3 A), 17 gf, 8 ga (+9); Last 6: WTWWTL
Strength of Schedule: LAFC came into Week 11 with three low-scoring/non-scoring draws on the road in their past: they left it with their first loss of the season – and that was on the road as well. “CCL legs” are almost certainly involved, but the pattern still bears noting.
The league darlings (LAFC) lost their first game last weekend, which makes the idea of them losing again seem outlandish, exotic even. And yet this is another case of, can you see you them running up the score, only with RSL in the ask. Their big picture says no – they put three past Charlotte and San Jose, but just get held to zeros by both Seattle (in Utah) and Houston (in Texas). Makes you think LAFC will win it or no one will...which would make an RSL win noteworthy.
Portland Timbers v Vancouver Whitecaps
Portland: 3-5-3, 12 pts. (2-1-2 H; 1-4-1 A), 15 gf, 18 ga (-3); Last 6: TLWLWT
Strength of Schedule: In their defense (to which I will always come), fairly tough. Getting Austin at home gave them their cleanest shot at three points in weeks. And yet...
Vancouver: 3-2-5, 14 pts. (3-1-2 H; 0-1-3 A), 14 gf, 9 ga (+5); Last 6: TWWTTW
Strength of Schedule: Make that 10 points of 12 from their last four home games. The ‘Caps are making a good case that they’ve found their feet.
First, thank gods this game ain’t in Vancouver. Second, so much will depend on that little red wagon and who Portland gets back from injury. Look, as noted in my extended notes (see above, thing about reliving the experience), I see things I like about Portland’s starting XI, even the current one. Evander’s finally getting there, for one (and it’s possible he’s just that languid out there), and I like Juan David Mosquera (though I think they need to set things up to unleash him more), Cristian Paredes (rangy AF, getting bolder), Diego Chara (ol’ reliable), Dario Zuparic, Zac McGraw (Scylla and Charybdis), Aljaz Ivacic, and...well, the rest grow on me more and more as the coaching staff figures out what to do with them and they perform accordingly. Now, here’s what they’re up against....
The ’Caps are not an exciting team. They’re a bunch of grinders who, by and large, get results by doing the simple things well. As noted above, they have talent. Gressel’s a nicely mobile threat from wide spaces, channels and set-pieces, Gauld will run himself into the ground if it means beating you by half an inch, they’re clearly keeping enough out between Tristan Blackmon, Ranko Vesellnovic, and “Nick Rimando of the J-League” (seriously, I saw that once), Yohei Takaoka (who I believe is still settling, despite looking great in moments). For what it’s worth, I think the ‘Caps get the “solid, unremarkable” rap from the rest of its roster, if with honorable mention to Simon Becher, who seems to have the kind of goal-scorer’s knack that could fuck up a defense as spacy and, “but I thought you had it” as Portland’s. White’s injury looked like a vicious Charlie-horse, so he may be available and his mobility will test the Timbers back line, but, based on everything I’ve seen from them, managing Vancouver looks like keeping on top of a lot of very obvious things done well. Portland’s chances to get three very important points from this game turn on them doing that one crucial thing right and, and doing it for over every 90+ minutes of the game.
Los Angeles Galaxy v San Jose Earthquakes
Galaxy: 1-6-3, 6 pts. (1-3-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 8 gf, 17 ga (-9); Last 6: LLLWLL
Strength of Schedule: They played a pretty tough stretch...and got their asses kicked all the way through it. No bueno...
SJ: 5-3-3, 18 pts. (5-0-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 15 gf, 14 ga (+1); Last 6: WTWLTW
Strength of Schedule: However one characterizes it, the ‘Quakes are taking care of it. Their Week 11 win puts a real Seal of Approval on their home record.
If nothing else, the Galaxy can take comfort from San Jose’s complete inability to do anything good on the road, even if that runs headlong against their failure to do anything good anywhere. All in all, the Galaxy looks like more of a mess every time I watch them, while San Jose looks more like a team of players who know their roles and play them well. Nothing will surprise me, but I’m looking for a San Jose win.
Just like last week, we’ll see how all those notes hold up on the other side.
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