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| My process. |
Hello and welcome to another week of soccer viewing and free association – though, in fairness, the “free” had a little trouble getting off the ground this week. Shakras all jammed up, people, and no combination of stretching and self-medication to loosen them.
Some notes before digging in. I already posted a long-form review of the Portland Timbers' puzzling, dull and goal-less draw away to the San Jose Earthquakes (short version, the Timbers may or may not have done all right against a strong, yet short-handed home team). Also, I caught the tail-end of New York City FC snatching a point from the jaws of defeat at home against Columbus Crew SC and, full disclosure, would have put my money on the visitors taking all three points when I checked out around the 85th minute (aka, too soon)...and yet, how many NYCFC fans feel better after that? Based on their 1-5-4 record over the past 10, it would take a conclave of the delusional.
I took longer looks at the rest of this condensed MLS Week’s action – and, yeah, I got a little misty about the days of 10-12 team league. The format’s the same – i.e., a link to The Mothership’s summary is embedded in every final score, where you'll find stats and highlights, and note the windows I watched in brackets in italics after it – and the notes follow. The methodology is pretty simple: turn on the game and let your brain ask questions like, “how many wins have they had lately?” or “what’s their goal differential again?” as you go. I’ll close with notes on (shit!) this Wednesday’s full buffet of games, but, before sharing my notes, I wanted to flag some big picture stuff I didn’t cover in my notes (e.g., how much more cleanly the Eastern Conference expresses its hierarchy than the Western does).
1) How the East Expresses Its Hierarchy (and the West Fails to)
In goals, basically. The average number of goals scored and allowed across MLS is 22.6. The average in the West comes in at a clean 21 “goal units,” while the average rises to 24.1 in the East. That’s a function of the fairly clean split between haves and have nots in the East. Your better teams – e.g., FC Cincinnati, Nashville SC, and the Philadelphia Union – have, not just wider goal differentials, but they’re above average for scoring and, perhaps more crucially, well below the average for goals allowed. Before any of you raise your hand to say, “what about the New England Revolution?” I’m tossing them into the same bucket at Columbus Crew SC and Atlanta United FC – i.e., the teams that succeed (insofar as they do) by running up the score. Along with St. Louis CITY FC, those are the three highest-scoring teams in the league...which brings me to the second half of this thought.
Once you get past St. Louis, Los Angeles FC and the Seattle Sounders, goal differentials among the rest of the Western Conference teams either mush toward zero (e.g., the Houston Dynamo and San Jose) or fall off a cliff (e.g., the Los Angeles Galaxy, the Colorado Rapids and, to some fun extent, Real Salt Lake). Add in the fact that both Seattle and LAFC have slipped of late (and that even St. Louis has become streaky) and that only makes the gravitational pull toward that zero goal differential look stronger in the West.
What’s it all mean? Is it that the West is more competitive or is it that Western Conference teams are collectively worse at scoring? Or is it that the Eastern Conference’s weaker teams suck a little harder than the West’s weakest? Is that even important?
Dunno. Maybe it’s all statistical anomalies, signifying nothing.
One more thing:
2) Programming Note
I’m sure the majority of plugged-in MLS fans already know this, but, for those who didn’t until now (like me!), the break for the Leagues Cup comes between the 23rd and 24th game of the 2023 season for most teams. Think I’ll do some forecasting to that window with next Monday’s (or Tuesday's) MLS-wide post.
Right. let’s move on to my notes...
DC United 1-2 Real Salt Lake[Minutes 20-45; 45-60; 80-90+]
- Tyler Miller was miles off his line for most of the first half – so blatantly that broadcast mused whether he was playing with fire 20+ before Pablo Ruiz chipped him.
- Wonder what Miller thought when Ruiz kicked the ball? When did the sweaty panic kick in?
- RSL plays through Pablo Ruiz a lot. He hits a good long pass, so little wonder.
- RSL is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games on the road; also possessed a lot. 61.9% Didn’t see that coming.
- Tough, tough red card for Birnbaum. That’s probable cause for “last man” at best.
- RSL brought the chip on their shoulder, stepped strong, It served them well.
- Andres Gomez deserved his assist on the second; active, good and direct all night. Caused all kinds of problems.
- DC kept it competitive, even if they didn’t do much over a choppy final 10 minutes. RSL created some high percentage looks, came within Derrick Williams’ foot of scoring a third, etc. DC didn’t really deserve it...which I suppose suggests RSL did.
- Fun fact: both DC and RSL have won three games over their past ten games, RSL just has the more recent grouping. Also, they went 3-2-5 to DC’s 3-4-3. Both seem like teams that will knock somewhere between around and just about the playoff line to the end...
...though RSL is making some roster moves. Interesting to see them go for it a little.
New England Revolution 3-1 Orlando City SC[2nd half]
- The Revs kicked sand in my face with this result, like actual bullies. Their win over Miami gave my ass license to speak for me and, as often happens, my ass was wrong. You know how it goes...
- First half looked only dimly competitive, hence tuning in for the second.
- Did NE really line up in the Xmas tree?
- The Revs late five-game slump gets a lot less mysterious once you see they played four of them on the road. Still unbeaten at home, btw. 6-0-3. Also, they’re unbeaten in 10 games (7-0-3) when they score first. Think this makes 8-0-3 in their last 11.
- Noel Buck is insanely mature for his age. I wasted my life.
- It was Earl Edwards Jr. who made those three saves in goal for the Revs, not Dorde Petrovic. One of them, quite a good one, kept Orlando from equalizing in the early 60s.
- And Orlando found some good looks, most by Martin Ojeda. Good goal by Duncan McGuire. Dude’s got five this season.
- Orlando’s defensive scheme either didn’t work or they executed poorly. It combined pressing high with ceding too much time and space after the Revs broke the press – and this was with the defense behind the ball.
- Gustavo Bou has a four goals per 10 games career hit rate; added a smart 40th for the Revs’ 2nd. Not too shabby a field player either.
- Orlando died chasing the game; despite the Revs’ heavy possession game-wide, Carles Gil iced the game for them on a counter.
Some notes before digging in. I already posted a long-form review of the Portland Timbers' puzzling, dull and goal-less draw away to the San Jose Earthquakes (short version, the Timbers may or may not have done all right against a strong, yet short-handed home team). Also, I caught the tail-end of New York City FC snatching a point from the jaws of defeat at home against Columbus Crew SC and, full disclosure, would have put my money on the visitors taking all three points when I checked out around the 85th minute (aka, too soon)...and yet, how many NYCFC fans feel better after that? Based on their 1-5-4 record over the past 10, it would take a conclave of the delusional.
I took longer looks at the rest of this condensed MLS Week’s action – and, yeah, I got a little misty about the days of 10-12 team league. The format’s the same – i.e., a link to The Mothership’s summary is embedded in every final score, where you'll find stats and highlights, and note the windows I watched in brackets in italics after it – and the notes follow. The methodology is pretty simple: turn on the game and let your brain ask questions like, “how many wins have they had lately?” or “what’s their goal differential again?” as you go. I’ll close with notes on (shit!) this Wednesday’s full buffet of games, but, before sharing my notes, I wanted to flag some big picture stuff I didn’t cover in my notes (e.g., how much more cleanly the Eastern Conference expresses its hierarchy than the Western does).
1) How the East Expresses Its Hierarchy (and the West Fails to)
In goals, basically. The average number of goals scored and allowed across MLS is 22.6. The average in the West comes in at a clean 21 “goal units,” while the average rises to 24.1 in the East. That’s a function of the fairly clean split between haves and have nots in the East. Your better teams – e.g., FC Cincinnati, Nashville SC, and the Philadelphia Union – have, not just wider goal differentials, but they’re above average for scoring and, perhaps more crucially, well below the average for goals allowed. Before any of you raise your hand to say, “what about the New England Revolution?” I’m tossing them into the same bucket at Columbus Crew SC and Atlanta United FC – i.e., the teams that succeed (insofar as they do) by running up the score. Along with St. Louis CITY FC, those are the three highest-scoring teams in the league...which brings me to the second half of this thought.
Once you get past St. Louis, Los Angeles FC and the Seattle Sounders, goal differentials among the rest of the Western Conference teams either mush toward zero (e.g., the Houston Dynamo and San Jose) or fall off a cliff (e.g., the Los Angeles Galaxy, the Colorado Rapids and, to some fun extent, Real Salt Lake). Add in the fact that both Seattle and LAFC have slipped of late (and that even St. Louis has become streaky) and that only makes the gravitational pull toward that zero goal differential look stronger in the West.
What’s it all mean? Is it that the West is more competitive or is it that Western Conference teams are collectively worse at scoring? Or is it that the Eastern Conference’s weaker teams suck a little harder than the West’s weakest? Is that even important?
Dunno. Maybe it’s all statistical anomalies, signifying nothing.
One more thing:
2) Programming Note
I’m sure the majority of plugged-in MLS fans already know this, but, for those who didn’t until now (like me!), the break for the Leagues Cup comes between the 23rd and 24th game of the 2023 season for most teams. Think I’ll do some forecasting to that window with next Monday’s (or Tuesday's) MLS-wide post.
Right. let’s move on to my notes...
DC United 1-2 Real Salt Lake[Minutes 20-45; 45-60; 80-90+]
- Tyler Miller was miles off his line for most of the first half – so blatantly that broadcast mused whether he was playing with fire 20+ before Pablo Ruiz chipped him.
- Wonder what Miller thought when Ruiz kicked the ball? When did the sweaty panic kick in?
- RSL plays through Pablo Ruiz a lot. He hits a good long pass, so little wonder.
- RSL is 5-0-2 in their last 7 games on the road; also possessed a lot. 61.9% Didn’t see that coming.
- Tough, tough red card for Birnbaum. That’s probable cause for “last man” at best.
- RSL brought the chip on their shoulder, stepped strong, It served them well.
- Andres Gomez deserved his assist on the second; active, good and direct all night. Caused all kinds of problems.
- DC kept it competitive, even if they didn’t do much over a choppy final 10 minutes. RSL created some high percentage looks, came within Derrick Williams’ foot of scoring a third, etc. DC didn’t really deserve it...which I suppose suggests RSL did.
- Fun fact: both DC and RSL have won three games over their past ten games, RSL just has the more recent grouping. Also, they went 3-2-5 to DC’s 3-4-3. Both seem like teams that will knock somewhere between around and just about the playoff line to the end...
...though RSL is making some roster moves. Interesting to see them go for it a little.
New England Revolution 3-1 Orlando City SC[2nd half]
- The Revs kicked sand in my face with this result, like actual bullies. Their win over Miami gave my ass license to speak for me and, as often happens, my ass was wrong. You know how it goes...
- First half looked only dimly competitive, hence tuning in for the second.
- Did NE really line up in the Xmas tree?
- The Revs late five-game slump gets a lot less mysterious once you see they played four of them on the road. Still unbeaten at home, btw. 6-0-3. Also, they’re unbeaten in 10 games (7-0-3) when they score first. Think this makes 8-0-3 in their last 11.
- Noel Buck is insanely mature for his age. I wasted my life.
- It was Earl Edwards Jr. who made those three saves in goal for the Revs, not Dorde Petrovic. One of them, quite a good one, kept Orlando from equalizing in the early 60s.
- And Orlando found some good looks, most by Martin Ojeda. Good goal by Duncan McGuire. Dude’s got five this season.
- Orlando’s defensive scheme either didn’t work or they executed poorly. It combined pressing high with ceding too much time and space after the Revs broke the press – and this was with the defense behind the ball.
- Gustavo Bou has a four goals per 10 games career hit rate; added a smart 40th for the Revs’ 2nd. Not too shabby a field player either.
- Orlando died chasing the game; despite the Revs’ heavy possession game-wide, Carles Gil iced the game for them on a counter.
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| A crystal ball full of lies and delay. |
Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Los Angeles FC[Minutes 1-20, 45-60, 80-90]
- The record ain’t great, but SKC is still 5-3-2 over last 10 games; solid turnaround after going 0-6-3 over first nine games.
- Some space between the Ws for LAFC. Related, they’d only scored three goals over past five games – and they played four of them at home and hardly against super teams.
- LAFC rotated drunkenly and for a variety of reasons. Bumps the respect for the result...tentatively.
- SKC started nervous, lotta back passing, half-panicked runs forward. They picked up a PK/goal out of that, if one that took five (fucking) minutes to legislate (I hate VAR), but it never looked...confident. It’s like LAFC’s toddlers scrambled them...then again, the broadcast booth and xG trajectory agreed they ended the 2nd half strong.
- Huh. SKC’s goal celebration came out of team retreat. “The Fire-Pit Dance” they call it...
- Is SKC’s Dany Rosero as reckless/sloppy as he looked on Saturday?
- “well, aktually” offside calls are the fucking worst...Aaron Long got stiffed, his header should have counted, fight me, etc. Later, the ref missed the tug on Daniel Salloi. Refs are fallible, but they fail quickly enough to keep the game going.
- Truly surprising number of giveaways by both teams.
- LAFC fired six shots total (srsly), but largely matched SKC’s “threat level” – especially when the hosts trailed off down the stretch. That doesn’t mean LAFC’s winner wasn’t ridiculous and/or fortunate. Holy lingering Khiry Shelton...
- Stipe Biuk’s got fancy feet. Keep an eye on that one.
Nasvhille SC 3-1 St. Louis CITY FC[Minutes 1-20, 35-45, 60-80]
- Nashville’s unbeaten in 10, with a 7-0-3 record. Only the Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati keep the same pace – and isn’t that fun?
- Also, they came to freakin’ battle. One doesn’t often see duel/tackle numbers that high.
- I’ll be really interested to see what St. Louis does over their next three (v RSL, @ SJ, v COL), especially if they have to continue with key regular starters (e.g., Edouard Lowen) absent.
- Really solid problem-solving all over Nashville’s first goal.
- Hany Mukhtar is up there with Robbie Keane and Sebastian Giovinco, fastest to 50 goals/30 assists. Is that 52 goals/30 assists after this? Hyper-productivity, regardless.
- Nashville played like they wanted to prove they’re the toughest team in MLS, but St. Louis is forever willing to drunkenly run.
- Alex Muyl played a lively one...pretty effective too.
- St. Louis’ goal was stupid poo-show. Took days to come down from the idiot box. Fuck VAR.
- The penalty call/red card buried it, but I still feel like Nashville had a handle on the shovel.
- Still marveling at how the entire St. Louis defense switched off on Mukhtar’s run up the gut for Nashville's third goal.
- To pick up a thought started in the first line of this section, MLS’s Eastern Conferences possesses a certain logic and momentum that its Western Conference simply does not have. Here are the records over the past 10 games for the top eight teams in the West:
St. Louis: 4-4-2, WTLLWWWLTL
LAFC: 4-3-3, WTLWTWTLLW
Seattle: 3-3-4, WTLWLLWLTT
San Jose: 3-3-4, LTWLLTWTWT
Dallas: 3-4-3, LTWWTTLLWL
Houston: 4-4-2, WTLLTWLLWW
RSL: 3-5-2, TTLTWTLWTW
Vancouver: 3-4-3, TTWLLWLWTT
Small wonder the top four teams in the East have more points than all of the above. And now, let’s close with...
- The record ain’t great, but SKC is still 5-3-2 over last 10 games; solid turnaround after going 0-6-3 over first nine games.
- Some space between the Ws for LAFC. Related, they’d only scored three goals over past five games – and they played four of them at home and hardly against super teams.
- LAFC rotated drunkenly and for a variety of reasons. Bumps the respect for the result...tentatively.
- SKC started nervous, lotta back passing, half-panicked runs forward. They picked up a PK/goal out of that, if one that took five (fucking) minutes to legislate (I hate VAR), but it never looked...confident. It’s like LAFC’s toddlers scrambled them...then again, the broadcast booth and xG trajectory agreed they ended the 2nd half strong.
- Huh. SKC’s goal celebration came out of team retreat. “The Fire-Pit Dance” they call it...
- Is SKC’s Dany Rosero as reckless/sloppy as he looked on Saturday?
- “well, aktually” offside calls are the fucking worst...Aaron Long got stiffed, his header should have counted, fight me, etc. Later, the ref missed the tug on Daniel Salloi. Refs are fallible, but they fail quickly enough to keep the game going.
- Truly surprising number of giveaways by both teams.
- LAFC fired six shots total (srsly), but largely matched SKC’s “threat level” – especially when the hosts trailed off down the stretch. That doesn’t mean LAFC’s winner wasn’t ridiculous and/or fortunate. Holy lingering Khiry Shelton...
- Stipe Biuk’s got fancy feet. Keep an eye on that one.
Nasvhille SC 3-1 St. Louis CITY FC[Minutes 1-20, 35-45, 60-80]
- Nashville’s unbeaten in 10, with a 7-0-3 record. Only the Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati keep the same pace – and isn’t that fun?
- Also, they came to freakin’ battle. One doesn’t often see duel/tackle numbers that high.
- I’ll be really interested to see what St. Louis does over their next three (v RSL, @ SJ, v COL), especially if they have to continue with key regular starters (e.g., Edouard Lowen) absent.
- Really solid problem-solving all over Nashville’s first goal.
- Hany Mukhtar is up there with Robbie Keane and Sebastian Giovinco, fastest to 50 goals/30 assists. Is that 52 goals/30 assists after this? Hyper-productivity, regardless.
- Nashville played like they wanted to prove they’re the toughest team in MLS, but St. Louis is forever willing to drunkenly run.
- Alex Muyl played a lively one...pretty effective too.
- St. Louis’ goal was stupid poo-show. Took days to come down from the idiot box. Fuck VAR.
- The penalty call/red card buried it, but I still feel like Nashville had a handle on the shovel.
- Still marveling at how the entire St. Louis defense switched off on Mukhtar’s run up the gut for Nashville's third goal.
- To pick up a thought started in the first line of this section, MLS’s Eastern Conferences possesses a certain logic and momentum that its Western Conference simply does not have. Here are the records over the past 10 games for the top eight teams in the West:
St. Louis: 4-4-2, WTLLWWWLTL
LAFC: 4-3-3, WTLWTWTLLW
Seattle: 3-3-4, WTLWLLWLTT
San Jose: 3-3-4, LTWLLTWTWT
Dallas: 3-4-3, LTWWTTLLWL
Houston: 4-4-2, WTLLTWLLWW
RSL: 3-5-2, TTLTWTLWTW
Vancouver: 3-4-3, TTWLLWLWTT
Small wonder the top four teams in the East have more points than all of the above. And now, let’s close with...
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| The worst of American cuisine and so much of it. |
A Look Ahead to MLS Week 20
Good Lord, what is this? Summer TV? Writers’ strike TV? I count exactly one match up I’d throw on the marquee – Los Angeles FC v Seattle Sounders – but a fair chunk of the programming passes over into weaker teams hosting stronger ones, e.g., Club de Foot Montreal v Nashville and Austin FC v FC Dallas. I suppose all that amounts to those stronger visiting teams backing up their claim to the name, perhaps none of which rate as highly as:
Orlando City SC v Philadelphia Union
Will Philly roaring back to competitive life, this gives Orlando one hell of chance to kick its home form into gear (just 3-3-3 thus far). Oh, and honorable mention goes to...
Los Angeles Galaxy v Sporting Kansas City
With the way, they’re yo-yoing over and under the playoff line with the Timbers as a counter-balance, I’m watching SKC like an anxious hawk. The Galaxy have handed out their share of points.
Very much related, the Timbers have a Hitman Bob of their own to punch on Wednesday in a (still perpetually) struggling Chicago Fire FC team. Sometimes you just have to keep ahead of a Jones.
If there’s an undercard to this midweek’s main event (i.e., LAFC v Seattle), it’s...
Houston Dynamo FC v San Jose Earthquakes
And yet, don’t the numbers point to a home team win, complete with neon lights? I’m looking for a break in the pattern here – though that assumes San Jose will have all hands available.
It’s crap or something close to from there – e.g., Red Bull New York v Charlotte FC, Colorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps – but all you sadomasochists (and in that specific order) can watch FC Cincinnati (very likely) beat up on Toronto FC (then again, who doesn’t like surprises? I mean besides Cincy fans), or St. Louis (perhaps) running roughshod over Real Salt Lake.
That’s it for this one. I doubt I’ll have the bandwidth to bang out a review of the midweek games, so I expect to circle back after MLS Week 21 goes into the books. And it’s likely to look a lot different than this one. Till then...
Good Lord, what is this? Summer TV? Writers’ strike TV? I count exactly one match up I’d throw on the marquee – Los Angeles FC v Seattle Sounders – but a fair chunk of the programming passes over into weaker teams hosting stronger ones, e.g., Club de Foot Montreal v Nashville and Austin FC v FC Dallas. I suppose all that amounts to those stronger visiting teams backing up their claim to the name, perhaps none of which rate as highly as:
Orlando City SC v Philadelphia Union
Will Philly roaring back to competitive life, this gives Orlando one hell of chance to kick its home form into gear (just 3-3-3 thus far). Oh, and honorable mention goes to...
Los Angeles Galaxy v Sporting Kansas City
With the way, they’re yo-yoing over and under the playoff line with the Timbers as a counter-balance, I’m watching SKC like an anxious hawk. The Galaxy have handed out their share of points.
Very much related, the Timbers have a Hitman Bob of their own to punch on Wednesday in a (still perpetually) struggling Chicago Fire FC team. Sometimes you just have to keep ahead of a Jones.
If there’s an undercard to this midweek’s main event (i.e., LAFC v Seattle), it’s...
Houston Dynamo FC v San Jose Earthquakes
And yet, don’t the numbers point to a home team win, complete with neon lights? I’m looking for a break in the pattern here – though that assumes San Jose will have all hands available.
It’s crap or something close to from there – e.g., Red Bull New York v Charlotte FC, Colorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps – but all you sadomasochists (and in that specific order) can watch FC Cincinnati (very likely) beat up on Toronto FC (then again, who doesn’t like surprises? I mean besides Cincy fans), or St. Louis (perhaps) running roughshod over Real Salt Lake.
That’s it for this one. I doubt I’ll have the bandwidth to bang out a review of the midweek games, so I expect to circle back after MLS Week 21 goes into the books. And it’s likely to look a lot different than this one. Till then...
Have Wednesday's opponent, the Fire, had any interest for non-Chicago fans since 2007-8 and Cuauhtémoc Blanco's presence? Otherwise, you have to way-back-machine to 2003 for a dominant Fire team. Naturally, I expect our Timbers to struggle with defeating them later this evening.
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