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| Feel like this needs to be bigger.... |
I had some time this morning, so I thought I’d do a little reasoned projection about what the Portland Timbers’ future looks like between today and the Leagues Cup - a tournament I’m looking forward to despite generally hating on concocted tourneys in the MLS Extended Universe. The question I hope to run down: what kind of chance does Portland have of going into that break above the playoff line?
Before anyone gets his/her/their hopes up, I don’t dive too deep into any of this. The only sources I consulted were the current conference standings (for a snapshot), the Form Guide (for past results and future games), and the list of MLS players called up for the Gold Cup. Also, shit(!), and in time to make some revisions, the most current player availability report (which any sane observer should only half-trust). With each team, I walk through the raw numbers and blunt facts – e.g., records (home and away), goals for and against, and who’s next for all the teams - and close each section with further notes, details and opinions. I call these “info-blurbs,” for the record. Finally, the sample ranges from sixth place FC Dallas to 12th place Minnesota United FC – i.e., the collection of teams within touch of Portland, i.e., the kinds of teams they can catch or escape.
For those uninterested in combing through the data (impatient bastards), let’s kick this off with a fun/bleak stat: every team save the Vancouver Whitecaps has a negative goal differential – and most sit at -5 or worse. None of these teams actually rate as good, in other words, which has real potential to make the answer to the question posed up top one of which team will fail the least between now and July 16. Now, for the big picture prediction and tentative answer to that question...
Vancouver and Sporting Kansas City count as Portland’s most immediate competition and, by my loose math, both of them look like good bets to get six points (or more) by July 16 – which will force the Timbers to keep a similar pace. Minnesota, idle since June 10 by the way, might enter the mix, but they’ll have to do it over the next three games or (as I see it) abandon some measure of hope. I expect Dallas to fall, and for a variety of reasons, but I doubt they can drop far enough for it to matter for the Timbers (barring a miracle run); related, I see Real Salt Lake leapfrogging Dallas and maybe even giving the San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo FC something to worry about. Finally, I’m going with Austin FC as the wild card in the mix. Their late mini-revival suggests they could make a little noise – or just get enough points to keep the Timbers below the playoff line.
Best case, I see Portland taking Austin’s place above the playoff line. Sadly, the more plausible case has Austin joining the Timbers below the playoff line with SKC leapfrogging them both. Portland gets to write its own script, of course, and they’d do damned well to start Chapter 1 with a home win over New York City FC tonight, but even scenario that points to a tricky li’l dynamic: Minnesota is the only team in the sample the Timbers play during this stretch – i.e., there ain’t many six-point games in the mix.
Still, and as noted when I get to the info-blurb on Portland, 6+ points isn’t crazy. Their two road games come against the two weakest home teams in MLS (Minnesota and the Colorado Rapids) and they play two at home against teams that have, so far this season, traveled poorly (Columbus Crew SC) or very poorly (the road-winless New York City FC). To quote a slogan from The Hudsucker Proxy, The Future Is Now. So let’s make it a happy one! And now, the info-blurbs...
FC Dallas: 7-7-5, 26 pts. (19 gp), 21 gf, 22 ga (-1), 5-2-2 home, 2-5-3 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: TWWTTLLWLL
Patterns: Pretty bleak, really. Went from “can’t really get it going” to dropping points like they’re hot.
Countdown to League Cup: v LAFC, v DC, @ COL, @ SEA
Prognosis
Big need to revive that home form – and they’ll have to do it without Jesus Ferreira unless the U.S. craps out at the Gold Cup. Worse for them (and better for literally all teams below them), Dallas doesn’t have half its starting midfield available (i.e., Pomykal, Lletget and Arriola are all “out”) and their replacement part for Ferreira, Jesus Jimenez, is also out. They’ve got five points on Portland – a helluva lead in context – but that counts as an avalanche of bad news for Dallas and an opportunity all ‘round. Still, six points from that stretch is less insane than unlikely. I’ll be surprised to see them above 30 points by the break.
Real Salt Lake: 7-7-5, 26 pts. (19 gp), 23 gf, 29 ga (-6), 2-4-3 home, 5-3-2 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: TLTWTLWTWW
Patterns: That recent uptick is cause for concern – and the three wins came on the road (@ ATX, @ DC, @ STL, make of that what you will) - especially given that they're collecting points faster than anyone elese in the sample.
Countdown to League Cup: v MIN, @ TOR, v ORL, @ SKC, v RBNY
Prognosis
They have some cause for concern on the injury front – Jefferson Savarino and Andres Gomez both show as “questionable” – and they’ll lose a little hustle without Rubio Rubin, but having all of Damir Kreilach back will go a couple miles to papering over near-term absences. My big question is how RSL does against Minnesota today. A little momentum could go a long way during a comparatively soft stretch like that. Stranger things have happened, but I don’t see the Timbers doing anything around these guys beyond admiring their backsides – i.e., I expect them to overtake Dallas.
Austin FC: 6-8-4, 22 pts. (18 gp), 21 gf, 27 ga (-6), 4-3-3 home, 2-5-1 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: TTLWWLWLLW
Patterns: After going winless in eight from the middle of March to the middle of May, Austin has stabilized, though not by much, which only makes their midweek win over Dallas more ominous.
Countdown to League Cup: v HOU, @ MIA, @ MIN, @ VAN, v SKC
Prognosis
They didn’t lose anyone to the Gold Cup, but they have some big absences – e.g., Ben Kolmanic, Leo Vaisanen, as well as Plan B No. 1, Alex Ring, all of whom are out. So much for all hands on deck. Still, and Houston aside, that’s a combination of peer teams and fodder, if in unfavorable venues (though, again, Minnesota’s terrible at home), which leaves Austin free to write their own script. If Austin manages the bookends all right – i.e., if they get wins against Houston and SKC – they’re a good bet to keep one step ahead of the Timbers.
Vancouver Whitecaps: 5-5-7, 22 pts. (17 gp), 27 gf, 21 ga (+6), 5-1-4 home, 0-4-3 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: TTWLLWLWTT
Patterns: Until the last two – v SKC and v CIN – they’ve been good for points at home – by which I mean, they’re genuinely holding it down at home, i.e., picking up credible wins, if with an assist from timing.
Countdown to League Cup: @ LAFC, @ SKC, v SEA, v ATX, v LAG
Prognosis
That’s a rocky start to this stretch – and for the Timbers, an encouraging one – but, so long as they can paper over Julian Gressel’s Gold Cup call up, they reach favorable terrain on the back-end. We’ll never know what might have been had their road game in the Rockies not been cancelled (i.e., would the ‘Caps picked up their first road win, or would Colorado have picked up their first win at home?), but they should be good for at least six points out of those last three games. Anything more than six points spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Portland.
Before anyone gets his/her/their hopes up, I don’t dive too deep into any of this. The only sources I consulted were the current conference standings (for a snapshot), the Form Guide (for past results and future games), and the list of MLS players called up for the Gold Cup. Also, shit(!), and in time to make some revisions, the most current player availability report (which any sane observer should only half-trust). With each team, I walk through the raw numbers and blunt facts – e.g., records (home and away), goals for and against, and who’s next for all the teams - and close each section with further notes, details and opinions. I call these “info-blurbs,” for the record. Finally, the sample ranges from sixth place FC Dallas to 12th place Minnesota United FC – i.e., the collection of teams within touch of Portland, i.e., the kinds of teams they can catch or escape.
For those uninterested in combing through the data (impatient bastards), let’s kick this off with a fun/bleak stat: every team save the Vancouver Whitecaps has a negative goal differential – and most sit at -5 or worse. None of these teams actually rate as good, in other words, which has real potential to make the answer to the question posed up top one of which team will fail the least between now and July 16. Now, for the big picture prediction and tentative answer to that question...
Vancouver and Sporting Kansas City count as Portland’s most immediate competition and, by my loose math, both of them look like good bets to get six points (or more) by July 16 – which will force the Timbers to keep a similar pace. Minnesota, idle since June 10 by the way, might enter the mix, but they’ll have to do it over the next three games or (as I see it) abandon some measure of hope. I expect Dallas to fall, and for a variety of reasons, but I doubt they can drop far enough for it to matter for the Timbers (barring a miracle run); related, I see Real Salt Lake leapfrogging Dallas and maybe even giving the San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo FC something to worry about. Finally, I’m going with Austin FC as the wild card in the mix. Their late mini-revival suggests they could make a little noise – or just get enough points to keep the Timbers below the playoff line.
Best case, I see Portland taking Austin’s place above the playoff line. Sadly, the more plausible case has Austin joining the Timbers below the playoff line with SKC leapfrogging them both. Portland gets to write its own script, of course, and they’d do damned well to start Chapter 1 with a home win over New York City FC tonight, but even scenario that points to a tricky li’l dynamic: Minnesota is the only team in the sample the Timbers play during this stretch – i.e., there ain’t many six-point games in the mix.
Still, and as noted when I get to the info-blurb on Portland, 6+ points isn’t crazy. Their two road games come against the two weakest home teams in MLS (Minnesota and the Colorado Rapids) and they play two at home against teams that have, so far this season, traveled poorly (Columbus Crew SC) or very poorly (the road-winless New York City FC). To quote a slogan from The Hudsucker Proxy, The Future Is Now. So let’s make it a happy one! And now, the info-blurbs...
FC Dallas: 7-7-5, 26 pts. (19 gp), 21 gf, 22 ga (-1), 5-2-2 home, 2-5-3 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: TWWTTLLWLL
Patterns: Pretty bleak, really. Went from “can’t really get it going” to dropping points like they’re hot.
Countdown to League Cup: v LAFC, v DC, @ COL, @ SEA
Prognosis
Big need to revive that home form – and they’ll have to do it without Jesus Ferreira unless the U.S. craps out at the Gold Cup. Worse for them (and better for literally all teams below them), Dallas doesn’t have half its starting midfield available (i.e., Pomykal, Lletget and Arriola are all “out”) and their replacement part for Ferreira, Jesus Jimenez, is also out. They’ve got five points on Portland – a helluva lead in context – but that counts as an avalanche of bad news for Dallas and an opportunity all ‘round. Still, six points from that stretch is less insane than unlikely. I’ll be surprised to see them above 30 points by the break.
Real Salt Lake: 7-7-5, 26 pts. (19 gp), 23 gf, 29 ga (-6), 2-4-3 home, 5-3-2 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: TLTWTLWTWW
Patterns: That recent uptick is cause for concern – and the three wins came on the road (@ ATX, @ DC, @ STL, make of that what you will) - especially given that they're collecting points faster than anyone elese in the sample.
Countdown to League Cup: v MIN, @ TOR, v ORL, @ SKC, v RBNY
Prognosis
They have some cause for concern on the injury front – Jefferson Savarino and Andres Gomez both show as “questionable” – and they’ll lose a little hustle without Rubio Rubin, but having all of Damir Kreilach back will go a couple miles to papering over near-term absences. My big question is how RSL does against Minnesota today. A little momentum could go a long way during a comparatively soft stretch like that. Stranger things have happened, but I don’t see the Timbers doing anything around these guys beyond admiring their backsides – i.e., I expect them to overtake Dallas.
Austin FC: 6-8-4, 22 pts. (18 gp), 21 gf, 27 ga (-6), 4-3-3 home, 2-5-1 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: TTLWWLWLLW
Patterns: After going winless in eight from the middle of March to the middle of May, Austin has stabilized, though not by much, which only makes their midweek win over Dallas more ominous.
Countdown to League Cup: v HOU, @ MIA, @ MIN, @ VAN, v SKC
Prognosis
They didn’t lose anyone to the Gold Cup, but they have some big absences – e.g., Ben Kolmanic, Leo Vaisanen, as well as Plan B No. 1, Alex Ring, all of whom are out. So much for all hands on deck. Still, and Houston aside, that’s a combination of peer teams and fodder, if in unfavorable venues (though, again, Minnesota’s terrible at home), which leaves Austin free to write their own script. If Austin manages the bookends all right – i.e., if they get wins against Houston and SKC – they’re a good bet to keep one step ahead of the Timbers.
Vancouver Whitecaps: 5-5-7, 22 pts. (17 gp), 27 gf, 21 ga (+6), 5-1-4 home, 0-4-3 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: TTWLLWLWTT
Patterns: Until the last two – v SKC and v CIN – they’ve been good for points at home – by which I mean, they’re genuinely holding it down at home, i.e., picking up credible wins, if with an assist from timing.
Countdown to League Cup: @ LAFC, @ SKC, v SEA, v ATX, v LAG
Prognosis
That’s a rocky start to this stretch – and for the Timbers, an encouraging one – but, so long as they can paper over Julian Gressel’s Gold Cup call up, they reach favorable terrain on the back-end. We’ll never know what might have been had their road game in the Rockies not been cancelled (i.e., would the ‘Caps picked up their first road win, or would Colorado have picked up their first win at home?), but they should be good for at least six points out of those last three games. Anything more than six points spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Portland.
Portland Timbers: 5-8-6, 21 pts. (19 gp), 21 gf, 26 ga (-5), 4-3-2 home, 1-5-4 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: WTWTLLTWTL
Patterns: Just when you hope/think Portland’s taking care of business at home, you see they drew Austin (before their recent, comparative surge) and lost to Minnesota and Chicago. They’ve picked up just 1/3 of the points on offer over the past five fames. Somewhere, Elvis is weeping over an inedible sandwich made of bananas and other atrocities...
Countdown to League Cup: v NYC, @ MIN, @ COL, v CLB
Prognosis
Colorado’s still winless at home, so there’s that...and, wow, Minnesota’s also shit at home (1-5-5). I wouldn’t call this stretch inviting, but it could be a hell of a lot worse in terms of opposition and timing. Dare we dream of 6+ points before the Timbers book their early exit from Leagues Cup?
Sporting Kansas City: 5-9-6, 21 pts. (20 gp), 23 gf, 29 ga (-6), 4-1-1 home, 1-5-5 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: WWTLWWTWLT
Patterns: Won four straight at home before handing all three points to LAFC last weekend – a big part of their turnaround, obviously. Still, they threw points into the fire early and have played the most games of any team in the sample.
Countdown to League Cup: v CHI, v VAN, @ HOU, v RSL, @ ATX
Prognosis
...and SKC looks poised to stay ahead on the games-played front. They’re almost certain to lose at Houston (as everyone else does), but that ranks among the most favorable run of games in the bunch. I think they’ve played without most of the players shown as “OUT” for some time (except maybe not Zusi?), so they still seem poised to keep a pace that will force Portland to trot if they want to keep up.
Minnesota United FC: 5-7-5, 20 pts. (17 gp), 15 gf, 22 ga (-7), 1-1-5 home, 4-6-0 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: LTLLWWTLTL
Patterns: First, how has Minnesota not played since June 10? Also, did that buy them time to get their shit straight? In practical terms, not great, obviously, and when did Reynoso come back? They haven’t won on the road since April 2...hold on, except in Portland (fuck!) and they just dropped two points at home against...Toronto FC. Gyuuuhhh...
Countdown to League Cup: @ RSL, v POR, v ATX, @ HOU, v LAFC
Prognosis
I’d pencil in a zero for them at Houston, and LAFC at home doesn’t look good either, so I supposed watch what they do over those first three games? The Loons have shown an incredible capacity for self-sabotage since April...so much depends on Reynoso...
Them’s the numbers. Nothing left to do but play the games....
Diagnosis
Last 10: WTWTLLTWTL
Patterns: Just when you hope/think Portland’s taking care of business at home, you see they drew Austin (before their recent, comparative surge) and lost to Minnesota and Chicago. They’ve picked up just 1/3 of the points on offer over the past five fames. Somewhere, Elvis is weeping over an inedible sandwich made of bananas and other atrocities...
Countdown to League Cup: v NYC, @ MIN, @ COL, v CLB
Prognosis
Colorado’s still winless at home, so there’s that...and, wow, Minnesota’s also shit at home (1-5-5). I wouldn’t call this stretch inviting, but it could be a hell of a lot worse in terms of opposition and timing. Dare we dream of 6+ points before the Timbers book their early exit from Leagues Cup?
Sporting Kansas City: 5-9-6, 21 pts. (20 gp), 23 gf, 29 ga (-6), 4-1-1 home, 1-5-5 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: WWTLWWTWLT
Patterns: Won four straight at home before handing all three points to LAFC last weekend – a big part of their turnaround, obviously. Still, they threw points into the fire early and have played the most games of any team in the sample.
Countdown to League Cup: v CHI, v VAN, @ HOU, v RSL, @ ATX
Prognosis
...and SKC looks poised to stay ahead on the games-played front. They’re almost certain to lose at Houston (as everyone else does), but that ranks among the most favorable run of games in the bunch. I think they’ve played without most of the players shown as “OUT” for some time (except maybe not Zusi?), so they still seem poised to keep a pace that will force Portland to trot if they want to keep up.
Minnesota United FC: 5-7-5, 20 pts. (17 gp), 15 gf, 22 ga (-7), 1-1-5 home, 4-6-0 away
Diagnosis
Last 10: LTLLWWTLTL
Patterns: First, how has Minnesota not played since June 10? Also, did that buy them time to get their shit straight? In practical terms, not great, obviously, and when did Reynoso come back? They haven’t won on the road since April 2...hold on, except in Portland (fuck!) and they just dropped two points at home against...Toronto FC. Gyuuuhhh...
Countdown to League Cup: @ RSL, v POR, v ATX, @ HOU, v LAFC
Prognosis
I’d pencil in a zero for them at Houston, and LAFC at home doesn’t look good either, so I supposed watch what they do over those first three games? The Loons have shown an incredible capacity for self-sabotage since April...so much depends on Reynoso...
Them’s the numbers. Nothing left to do but play the games....
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