FC Cincinnati 1-0 Philadelphia Union: (Back-Up) Paths of Glory

Again, that's 2 15/16th by one measure.

I wasn’t going to start this post with the question of whether FC Cincinnati’s big, CB-birthed late winner was or was not offside, but then I opened the phone and saw both the image and the measurement at right. Ian Murphy’s nod into the goal-mouth mosh-pit did look half a body offside in real time, but the call survived VAR’s second look and that ushered in Yerson Mosquera’s put-back and Cincy’s 1-0 win over the Philadelphia Union into the history books…

…that said, if that 2 15/16” measurement is accurate, that makes one hell of a statement on the OCD-madness of the post-modern offside rule. That is a fucking fraction, not a cheat-code.

Next thought: bring on Columbus Crew SC and getting the lighting dialed in because TQL Stadium is hosting a goddamn party next Saturday. A body usually has to go to Hollywood to get such perfect plotting.

To acknowledge the obvious, yes, this site fell off the FC Cincinnati beat in August of this season…and then again after the beginning of October. The explanation for that lapse in this boy scout’s duty speaks the thought that will carry this post to its conclusion – i.e., there’s not a lot to say besides, FC Cincinnati good, fire bad, and, whatever else you do, keep on lashing the hounds until they expire or reach the perfect destination, aka, MLS Cup 2023. Just two games stand between Cincy and one of the most thoroughly-redemptive doubles you’ll ever see in this budding whack-job of a league. As others have pointed out – which, here, means MLS’s in-house scribe Matt Doyle in the preview hit for last night’s game – the fact Cincy won anything at all in Year 5 constitutes enough of a miracle. The fact that the trophy in hand is the Supporters’ Shield – i.e., the one that requires consistent, almost grinding success – already gets the story of their 2023 season halfway to Hollywood.

I find VAR exhausting, honestly...

All that acknowledged and celebrated, Cincy will have one hell of a hill to climb next weekend. Courtesy of a late Thanksgiving – of which, I nailed the turkey (dry brine your birds, people) and absolutely fell to shambles on everything else (damn my small kitchen) – I couldn’t give my full attention to Columbus’s 2-0 road win over Orlando City SC, but, based on the first half and the patches of the rest, it looked controlled and menacing to the point of predestination. Not unlike Cincinnati, Orlando fielded a stout defense this season - fun fact, they were one of five teams that allowed just 39 goals (Cincy was another one) - and, whatever issues they had at the sharpest end the game (i.e., scoring), central Florida’s finest typically move the ball with confidence. And yet Columbus tilted the field toward them for much of that game, stuffing them into their own half and earning that full 1.0 xG advantage. It goes without saying that Cincinnati will need to be sharp next week if they want to step to the final stage.

That begs the question of whether they were sharp yesterday. One can answer that with all kinds of data points – e.g., how good is/was Philly, or even the fact Cincy won with a Defender of the Year and their midfield anchor tied behind their backs (i.e., absent) – but I’m going to answer it with a broad, satisfied “yes.” It was far from whistle-to-whistle perfection, and we're already getting the "it wasn't pretty, but" cliche, but Philly also challenged Cincinnati with a smart, well-executed game-plan that limited the effectiveness of their key attacking players. The scrounging 0.8 xG speaks to that as much as the scarcity of, say, Luciano Acosta and Alvaro Barreal in the highlights. I’d say about half of Cincy’s six shots on goal came from good, if half-hopeful shots from Aaron Boupendza. To his credit, he stretched Andre Blake on his best effort, but Philly did a really good job of cutting off Cincinnati’s preferred paths to goal. It wasn’t surprising, in that sense, that a set-piece decided the game. Or that a center-back scored it.

That last note opens up a good way to send this post into the sunset. As much as anything else, last night offered a lesson in the upside of resilience. Plan A was generally unavailable, all the way down to the starting XI, and that required Cincy to find a proverbial way. And the players, even a couple oft-unheralded ones, answered the call.

The reveal. (And great movie, btw....)

I’m going to return to the highlights to flag one aspect of that. The better looks might have come to or near Mikael Uhre, but the Union’s left back, Nathan Harriel, arguably fired their cleanest (aka, best-constructed) shot on goal all night. The way it curved back to the center made the save a little easier for Roman Celentano, but the thing that caught my eye was the two-three defenders standing between Harriel and Cincinnati’s goal. Cincy had defenders in good positions all night, up to and including their most vulnerable moment, and you can’t ask anything more from a make-shift defense. You get the same thing when you shift the ball to Cincinnati’s right, where Alvas Powell and Raymon Gaddis combined to shepherd one attempted overload either out of touch or over the endline.

Look further upfield and you see Yuya Kubo doing a fine impression of Obinna Nwobodo and Junior Moreno playing what might have been the cleanest, most secure games I’ve ever seen from him. Take the last step into the forward line and you’ll find Brandon Vazquez (just) failing to get on the score sheet (Philly did the Lord's work when it came to cluttering their area), but still doing the half-dozen little things that make him an effective forward – e.g., pillow-soft touches, keeping possession, bringing other players into the game with smooth connecting passes.

The sum of those last two paragraphs gets to how FC Cincinnati won the game despite how well Philly managed Acosta and Barreal (and, sure, Boupendza). It’s not a long stretch to say that the defense literally won the game. Having the (presumptive) MVP of your local league goes a long way, but having a strong team around him goes even further.

The defense will almost certainly need to be just as good, if not better, against Columbus next Saturday. The Crew remain one of the better bets to score in MLS, after all, and their arsenal still looks well-oiled and menacing. At this point, I’d call Cincinnati winding up in a position where they actually need to score my greatest fear for next weekend. Knowing that they thrived on thin margins all season long goes the longest distance to soothing that anxiety, but it will and should remain until Cincy holds either a late (late) or multi-goal lead.

Big damn weekend ahead, obviously, and no doubt an anxious one on the banks of the Ohio River. Till then