With the end of the season on the horizon, I wanted to post a read on the state of play since the…let’s call it gently(?) deceptive Leagues Cup wrapped up. Some of this follows from a personal failure to fully appreciate just how close we’ve come to the regular season – eight games left on the outside, and that’s only for four teams (Columbus, New England, LAFC, and Vancouver). It’s just six (nine teams, I think) to seven (16 teams?) for everyone else, which means shit got real two to three games ago depending.
Below, I lump all 29 teams into the following five categories, defined briefly below to make sure you catch my drift:
Contenders
The teams that look like they have a reasonable shot at reaching MLS Cup, whether by form (East) or conference (still East, but mostly West; more below).
Playoff Team, Dark Horses
The teams that, if they fix this issue or that one, have some hope of knocking off one of the contenders and reaching MLS Cup. That said, the relevant issue makes it pretty damn unlikely they will not. [NOTE: The relevant issue is not brought up much, or at all, below. Feel free to check out!]
Playoff Team, Plausible +1
Teams with a respectable chance, maybe even a decent one, of winning a game in the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs, brought to you by Audi (probably?), but I wouldn't expect much and/or shit from there.
Bubble Teams
Teams that, regardless of their present merit and future upsides, still has real shit to do if they want to reach the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs, brought to be Hello Fresh!
The Dead
Teams that I feel confident will fall short of the embarrassingly low bar that MLS has set for reaching the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs, brought to you Les Schwab Tires.
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| A "tweener" in human form, too good for USL, and yet. |
With that, on with the show, this is it.
The Contenders
Inter Miami CF, Columbus Crew SC, Los Angeles Galaxy, Los Angeles FC, FC Cincinnati
I think Miami has already run away with the Supporters’ Shield (fuck you guys!), and I recognize that neither the Galaxy nor LAFC have wide leads over the teams chasing them in the West, but, that’s my “Contender” group and for a variety of reasons – e.g., LAFC’s and Columbus’ two-to-one games in hand (respectively). That said, one team stands out more than the rest, and not in a good way.
An Aside on FC Cincinnati
Of all the teams I have in the “Contender” group, Cincy has the worst record of their past 10 games – 5-5-0 (yeah, yeah, LAFC is 5-2-3, but they made the Leagues Cup final; also, more later*) – they’ve dropped too many games strong teams don’t (e.g., Chicago, Charlotte and New England, all at home, plus Nashville not much further back), and injuries have thrown its once-mighty defense into chaos. Drubbing a crap Montreal team at home last weekend counts as little more than a first step back into decent society and even that won’t matter if they can’t take several more (emphasis deliberate). So, that’s what I’m watching for: how many points Cincinnati can run up over their last seven, fairly tough games (v CLB, @ MIN, @ NSH, v LAFC, @ NYC, v ORL, @ PHI). They’re in the nobility, but the estate has gone to seed, basically.
Playoff Team, Dark Horses
Colorado Rapids, Houston Dynamo FC, Portland Timbers, Real Salt Lake, Seattle Sounders, Vancouver Whitecaps
If you think you see a pattern in the above, yes, those are all Western Conference teams. They’re all there for the reason I mentioned in the space where I defined the categories – i.e., should either the Galaxy or *LAFC stumble, any one of these teams has some capacity to sneak past them, whether in the regular season or the MLS Cup 2024 Playoffs, brought to you by...I'll stop. Each of the above teams do enough things right, whether it’s staying relentlessly organized (Houston) or scoring more goals than the many they allow (Portland) to where it’s plausible they could beat either LA team on their best day, or maybe even just a good one. Not surprisingly, I have details to pull out on each of those teams. Taking them in the order above…for the most part:
An Aside on the Colorado Rapids
I’ll caveat this argument with “anything can happen,” but the Rapids have been steady enough all season to where I think they can pick up 4+ points from their remaining road games (@ SKC, @ MIN, @ ATX). Because I like their chances enough against Toronto FC at The Dick, I’m thinking all Colorado needs to hit the post-season feeling frisky is 3+ points from the rest of their homes games – e.g., v POR, v LAG, v SEA.
An Aside on Houston Dynamo FC
Houston has improved at some positions (Ezequiel Ponce?), received solid production from unexpected places (Ibrahim Aliyu), all while gaining the ability to adjust in-game between players returning and coming in (goddamn shame about Lawrence Ennali, though): put all that on a solid foundation and you get a couple head-turning results in recent weeks (e.g., Ws at Vancouver and LAFC). Throw in the fact they’re better on the road (7-5-2) than they are at home (4-3-6), and you have a team who will do gods know what between now and the end of the season on a medium schedule and that has every reason to feel all right no matter where they end up after Decision Day.
An Aside on Real Salt Lake
Despite how close RSL is to LAFC (one slim point, even if LAFC has a game in hand), they had a rough patch on either side of bombing out of the Leagues Cup – including an 0-2 loss at home versus San Jose. Their next four games - @ HOU, v FCD, v POR, @ ATX – should give a pretty clear indication on the kind of swing they’re on going into the off-season. Related, they’re more of a stubborn road team than a good one (4-3-7, overall).
An Aside on Seattle Sounders
If you didn’t see their win over Columbus last weekend, just know you can safely ignore it. The big story about the Sounders boil down to their recent form – 7-1-2 over their past 10 league games – and the (comparatively) powderpuff schedule they have between now and Decision Day: v SKC, v SJ, v HOU, @ VAN, @ COL. They host the Timbers on Decision Day, of course, but Seattle has the advantage of playing the rest of that schedule with a strong defense (a couple others are close, but only two other teams have better goals against numbers) and against teams that rather famously don’t score a lot. They'll be hard for anyone in the West to keep up with, or ahead of.
An Aside on the Vancouver Whitecaps
First and foremost, the ‘Caps are in sixth place in the West with a game in hand over everyone from RSL (3rd) to Minnesota (9th), and they have two games in hand on Seattle, who are just one point above them (43 points to Vancouver’s 42). Against that, the ‘Caps have one of the trickiest, most six-point-game drunk end-runs of any team in MLS: v SJ, @ HOU, @ LAG, v POR, v SEA, v MIN, v LAFC, @ RSL. Their home record ain’t the best (5-4-3), but they’ve been good enough lately, home and away (unbeaten in seven of their past eight games), to make them the West’s biggest undercard until further notice.
Finally, an Aside on the Portland Timbers
My personal threshold for believing the Timbers have a legit shot at doing something in the playoffs comes in at getting seven points at home and five points away from the following schedule: @ COL, v LAG, @ RSL, @ VAN, v ATX, v FCD, @ SEA…
…unless all concerned cock it up, the playoff race in MLS’s Western Conference should be a blast this season.
Playoff Teams, Plausible +1
Charlotte FC, Orlando City SC, New York City FC, Red Bull New York
Again, and to drag the implication into broad daylight, no, I don’t think any of the above teams pose a credible threat to any of the Eastern Conference contenders, not a sustained threat at least. Still, I’d be stunned to see any of them miss the post-season, even if that means limping in via the play-in. I only have notes on one of them because they all have pretty clear issues, e.g., Charlotte sucks all of the fun/goals out of every game they play, Orlando can’t do much without getting better at home (4-5-4, which would matter less if they were better than 6-5-3 on the road), and the Red Bulls can’t stop drawing, by which I mean games instead of totally bitchin', edgy pictures of, like, really dark shit. They hosted SKC last weekend (SKC!) and only managed a goddamn draw. That’s the East’s fourth place team, ffs! As for the East’s 5th place team…
An Aside on New York City FC
After a surprisingly successful Leagues Cup (semifinals, took eventual champs Columbus to PKs), Les Pigeons reverted to the sluggish league form that begs all the questions about them with a home draw versus Chicago and a late (but reportedly well-played) blowout loss at Columbus. That said, four of their recent losses and three of their recent draws came on the road (for reference, NYC is a 11-10-6 team) and they play five of their remaining seven games at home (the full schedule: @ DC, v PHI, v MIA, @ RBNY, v CIN, v NSH, v MTL). Barring a major turnaround for all concerned, those last two games are shoo-ins, so the question is how much home-field love NYCFC can squeeze out of the rest of that.
Bubble Teams
Atlanta United FC, DC United, Philadelphia Union, Toronto FC, Austin FC, FC Dallas, Minnesota United FC
Only three of the above teams – DC, Toronto, and Minnesota – are currently in the playoff picture and all three of them make by technicality, aka, the play-in playoff spot, aka, not a real one, abandon 90% of your hope, and that’s at a minimum. I don’t have much to say about most of these teams beyond, they’ll make it or they won’t and that's the last step they'll take until they go to the great off-season golf course in the sky. A few of them have a little something going for them – e.g., Philly had a strong Leagues Cup, DC has had a good run of recent road wins, and Toronto is in their best form since late April – but, barring real improvement, they’ll check out almost as fast as they punch in once shit gets real, real (aka, the playoffs).
The Dead
Chicago Fire FC, Club du Foot Montreal, New England Revolution, Nashville SC, San Jose Earthquakes, Sporting Kansas City, St. Louis CITY FC
Some of those calls may track as harsh – there, I’m thinking New England and Montreal, given that they’re just five points behind DC (and six behind Toronto) – but the gap between all of these teams and…just minimal competence (i.e., making the MLS Cup playoffs) yawns too wide. Whether that follows from a combination of how far behind they are and having played more games than all of the teams they’re chasing (both SKC and St. Louis have played 28 game and yet, not over the playoff line!), or something simple as persistent sucking, whether late (Montreal), chronic (Chicago), or terminal (Nashville and San Jose), it all spells doom, doom, I tell you. Doom.
For what it’s worth, I give New England and St. Louis the best shot at escaping the basement. Place your bets.
That’s all for this one. If anyone feels let down by the lack of context in the above, my best suggestion is to open the standings and Form Guide in one browser and this post in a third. As for programming notes, I’ll be back next week with another “league-wide” post, one which will update this post, but add a focus on the race for the last places in the Eastern Conference. We’ll see how well I pull that off. Till then….
An Aside on FC Cincinnati
Of all the teams I have in the “Contender” group, Cincy has the worst record of their past 10 games – 5-5-0 (yeah, yeah, LAFC is 5-2-3, but they made the Leagues Cup final; also, more later*) – they’ve dropped too many games strong teams don’t (e.g., Chicago, Charlotte and New England, all at home, plus Nashville not much further back), and injuries have thrown its once-mighty defense into chaos. Drubbing a crap Montreal team at home last weekend counts as little more than a first step back into decent society and even that won’t matter if they can’t take several more (emphasis deliberate). So, that’s what I’m watching for: how many points Cincinnati can run up over their last seven, fairly tough games (v CLB, @ MIN, @ NSH, v LAFC, @ NYC, v ORL, @ PHI). They’re in the nobility, but the estate has gone to seed, basically.
Playoff Team, Dark Horses
Colorado Rapids, Houston Dynamo FC, Portland Timbers, Real Salt Lake, Seattle Sounders, Vancouver Whitecaps
If you think you see a pattern in the above, yes, those are all Western Conference teams. They’re all there for the reason I mentioned in the space where I defined the categories – i.e., should either the Galaxy or *LAFC stumble, any one of these teams has some capacity to sneak past them, whether in the regular season or the MLS Cup 2024 Playoffs, brought to you by...I'll stop. Each of the above teams do enough things right, whether it’s staying relentlessly organized (Houston) or scoring more goals than the many they allow (Portland) to where it’s plausible they could beat either LA team on their best day, or maybe even just a good one. Not surprisingly, I have details to pull out on each of those teams. Taking them in the order above…for the most part:
An Aside on the Colorado Rapids
I’ll caveat this argument with “anything can happen,” but the Rapids have been steady enough all season to where I think they can pick up 4+ points from their remaining road games (@ SKC, @ MIN, @ ATX). Because I like their chances enough against Toronto FC at The Dick, I’m thinking all Colorado needs to hit the post-season feeling frisky is 3+ points from the rest of their homes games – e.g., v POR, v LAG, v SEA.
An Aside on Houston Dynamo FC
Houston has improved at some positions (Ezequiel Ponce?), received solid production from unexpected places (Ibrahim Aliyu), all while gaining the ability to adjust in-game between players returning and coming in (goddamn shame about Lawrence Ennali, though): put all that on a solid foundation and you get a couple head-turning results in recent weeks (e.g., Ws at Vancouver and LAFC). Throw in the fact they’re better on the road (7-5-2) than they are at home (4-3-6), and you have a team who will do gods know what between now and the end of the season on a medium schedule and that has every reason to feel all right no matter where they end up after Decision Day.
An Aside on Real Salt Lake
Despite how close RSL is to LAFC (one slim point, even if LAFC has a game in hand), they had a rough patch on either side of bombing out of the Leagues Cup – including an 0-2 loss at home versus San Jose. Their next four games - @ HOU, v FCD, v POR, @ ATX – should give a pretty clear indication on the kind of swing they’re on going into the off-season. Related, they’re more of a stubborn road team than a good one (4-3-7, overall).
An Aside on Seattle Sounders
If you didn’t see their win over Columbus last weekend, just know you can safely ignore it. The big story about the Sounders boil down to their recent form – 7-1-2 over their past 10 league games – and the (comparatively) powderpuff schedule they have between now and Decision Day: v SKC, v SJ, v HOU, @ VAN, @ COL. They host the Timbers on Decision Day, of course, but Seattle has the advantage of playing the rest of that schedule with a strong defense (a couple others are close, but only two other teams have better goals against numbers) and against teams that rather famously don’t score a lot. They'll be hard for anyone in the West to keep up with, or ahead of.
An Aside on the Vancouver Whitecaps
First and foremost, the ‘Caps are in sixth place in the West with a game in hand over everyone from RSL (3rd) to Minnesota (9th), and they have two games in hand on Seattle, who are just one point above them (43 points to Vancouver’s 42). Against that, the ‘Caps have one of the trickiest, most six-point-game drunk end-runs of any team in MLS: v SJ, @ HOU, @ LAG, v POR, v SEA, v MIN, v LAFC, @ RSL. Their home record ain’t the best (5-4-3), but they’ve been good enough lately, home and away (unbeaten in seven of their past eight games), to make them the West’s biggest undercard until further notice.
Finally, an Aside on the Portland Timbers
My personal threshold for believing the Timbers have a legit shot at doing something in the playoffs comes in at getting seven points at home and five points away from the following schedule: @ COL, v LAG, @ RSL, @ VAN, v ATX, v FCD, @ SEA…
…unless all concerned cock it up, the playoff race in MLS’s Western Conference should be a blast this season.
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| You'll never get it. You can't. |
Charlotte FC, Orlando City SC, New York City FC, Red Bull New York
Again, and to drag the implication into broad daylight, no, I don’t think any of the above teams pose a credible threat to any of the Eastern Conference contenders, not a sustained threat at least. Still, I’d be stunned to see any of them miss the post-season, even if that means limping in via the play-in. I only have notes on one of them because they all have pretty clear issues, e.g., Charlotte sucks all of the fun/goals out of every game they play, Orlando can’t do much without getting better at home (4-5-4, which would matter less if they were better than 6-5-3 on the road), and the Red Bulls can’t stop drawing, by which I mean games instead of totally bitchin', edgy pictures of, like, really dark shit. They hosted SKC last weekend (SKC!) and only managed a goddamn draw. That’s the East’s fourth place team, ffs! As for the East’s 5th place team…
An Aside on New York City FC
After a surprisingly successful Leagues Cup (semifinals, took eventual champs Columbus to PKs), Les Pigeons reverted to the sluggish league form that begs all the questions about them with a home draw versus Chicago and a late (but reportedly well-played) blowout loss at Columbus. That said, four of their recent losses and three of their recent draws came on the road (for reference, NYC is a 11-10-6 team) and they play five of their remaining seven games at home (the full schedule: @ DC, v PHI, v MIA, @ RBNY, v CIN, v NSH, v MTL). Barring a major turnaround for all concerned, those last two games are shoo-ins, so the question is how much home-field love NYCFC can squeeze out of the rest of that.
Bubble Teams
Atlanta United FC, DC United, Philadelphia Union, Toronto FC, Austin FC, FC Dallas, Minnesota United FC
Only three of the above teams – DC, Toronto, and Minnesota – are currently in the playoff picture and all three of them make by technicality, aka, the play-in playoff spot, aka, not a real one, abandon 90% of your hope, and that’s at a minimum. I don’t have much to say about most of these teams beyond, they’ll make it or they won’t and that's the last step they'll take until they go to the great off-season golf course in the sky. A few of them have a little something going for them – e.g., Philly had a strong Leagues Cup, DC has had a good run of recent road wins, and Toronto is in their best form since late April – but, barring real improvement, they’ll check out almost as fast as they punch in once shit gets real, real (aka, the playoffs).
The Dead
Chicago Fire FC, Club du Foot Montreal, New England Revolution, Nashville SC, San Jose Earthquakes, Sporting Kansas City, St. Louis CITY FC
Some of those calls may track as harsh – there, I’m thinking New England and Montreal, given that they’re just five points behind DC (and six behind Toronto) – but the gap between all of these teams and…just minimal competence (i.e., making the MLS Cup playoffs) yawns too wide. Whether that follows from a combination of how far behind they are and having played more games than all of the teams they’re chasing (both SKC and St. Louis have played 28 game and yet, not over the playoff line!), or something simple as persistent sucking, whether late (Montreal), chronic (Chicago), or terminal (Nashville and San Jose), it all spells doom, doom, I tell you. Doom.
For what it’s worth, I give New England and St. Louis the best shot at escaping the basement. Place your bets.
That’s all for this one. If anyone feels let down by the lack of context in the above, my best suggestion is to open the standings and Form Guide in one browser and this post in a third. As for programming notes, I’ll be back next week with another “league-wide” post, one which will update this post, but add a focus on the race for the last places in the Eastern Conference. We’ll see how well I pull that off. Till then….
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