Thursday, April 3, 2025

Austin FC Scouting Report: Eating the Sandwich

EAT IT, WUSS! (...and never shit again)
The Portland Timbers hosted Austin FC in Week 2 of the 2025 season, so who knew the Texans would be returning the favor so soon? Portland won the game on a late, weird goal and a wrote a whole damn match report that more or less dismissed Austin’s chances for the season…and what do they do but win three straight?

In other news, I can't get the video on the Mothership to fly and that is scrambling all of my shit. Not that this is immediately relevant…

Austin FC
4-2-0, 12 pts., 5 gf, 3 ga (+2); home 2-1-0, away 2-1-0
Last 6 Results: WLLWWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
v SKC (1-0 W); @ POR (0-1 L); v COL (0-1 L); @ LAFC (1-0 W); v SD (2-1 W); @ STL (1-0 W)

Notes from the Field
Both teams have little streaks going, of course, but Austin has three games to Portland’s two and they smuggled six points out of tough venues – e.g., Los Angeles FC’s BMO Stadium and St. Louis CITY FC’s Energizer Park. Slide the win versus the theretofore unbeaten San Diego FC as a nice slice of well-cured pastrami between those two and you have yourself one hell of a sandwich. New head coach Nico Estevez has them grinding out every result they earn – show me a multi-goal win in the above list of results – and the secret to Austin’s early rise to second MLS’s Western Conference owes something like 60% of its success to its defense (i.e., five goals scored, three goals allowed; don’t call it stupid, a major economy just adopted the same logic). After sitting through about 30 minutes of Austin’s win at St. Louis and around 45 minutes of that home win over San Diego, two big-picture details stood out: a broad aversion to risk and the absence of a player that presented and played like a No. 10.

Notes on Formation & Personnel
Estevez has played a 4-3-3 and a pair of 4-4-2s (par example), but he has so far only tinkered with the personnel. The back four typically starts with Brendan Hines-Ike paired with Oleksandr Swatok as center backs and Guilherme Biro and Jon Gallagher to their left and right, respectively. Both fullbacks get forward quite a bit, but Gallagher gets way the fuck up there, more like a wingback. Owen “Son of the Prior Coach” Wolf and new kid Besard Sabovic have been the constants in midfield and, for what it’s worth, I’d call Wolff the closest thing they have to a playmaker. Ilie Sanchez generally starts and/or provides a composed, deep-lying passing hub and I think they like to get their live-wire No. 8, Daniel Pereira, out there often as they can (he missed the road win at LAFC, don’t know why). I suspect a 4-3-3 suits them better because it allows them to start a midfield three of Pereira, Sabovic and Wolff and to push Osman Bukari into a pure attacking/winger role – a choice that pressured St. Louis’ left just long enough for Austin to go ahead through Albanian striker Myrto Uzuni. I haven’t seen much of Uzuni – he didn’t play versus San Diego – but he presents as a poacher, i.e., I didn’t see a ton of him coming back for the ball or combining. Brandon Vazquez leads Austin’s line in just about every way you can think of. He finally broke his duck against San Diego, but a sterling season for FC Cincinnati aside, he appears to have reverted to his hard-working, low(ish) scoring roots as a forward.

Four Things I’d Tell People About Austin
1) Leaning Into Their Strength & Loving It
Austin seems to genuinely like defending. I saw them sitting deep and staying organized more often than not, up to and including stacking 10 players in the defensive third for most of the first half at St. Louis. They defended higher and pressed fitfully versus San Diego and I’d expect something like that on Saturday. One plausible reason for that…

Austin's defensive third. From what I've seen.
2) They Like to Play Against the Ball(?)

Austin played against the ball both at St. Louis and versus San Diego…and, shit, I should have watched their home win over the Colorado Rapids. San Diego has played a really possession-heavy style so far and, because I can’t see Portland doing that for any non-accidental reason, I suspect Austin to carry the burden of being entertaining. I still expect a conservative posture – i.e., play as direct as they lay of the land permits with a ready retreat into a shell when it doesn’t come off – but enough shit will be tried for Austin to expose themselves here and there. Meanwhile, in the other direction…

3) Route 1 (& 2)
Austin benefitted from a multi-player brainfart for one of the goals against San Diego (so, don’t do that), but siccing Vazquez after balls over the midfield and into some seam between the defenders was the preferred method of attack against San Diego. Based on what I know of the Timbers, I’d fire that shit toward Kamal Miller all goddamn afternoon to see what Vazquez can get out of it. Broadly, though, this approach fits Austin’s present/perceived style of play, which relies on establishing territorial advantage in almost rugby-esque terms. The rest (i.e., Route 2) seemed to involve playing Bukari into space and letting him cook and/or spazz.

4) A Tell?
As noted above, Austin played into the attacking third through Wolff as often as any other player. I don’t know that Portland has to do anything about that over and above basic management, but plenty of plays passed through Wolff to Bukari, a player capable of, to elaborate on "spazz," both creating and thwarting his own opening. Because, and even despite that, most of Austin’s attacking thrust could come up the right. Against that, it’s entirely possible that Estevez moves Wolff to the side where he most wants to push the game – as he did at LAFC and versus Colorado and San Diego.

One Thing(s) About the Portland Timbers
As much as anything else, I see this as good yardstick for measuring how far Portland’s attack has come since, conveniently, Week 2 of the season. I already mentioned the main area of concern – e.g., Vazquez getting isolated high with any given Portland defender and catching the Timbers defense too far ahead of the ball – so that’s the main concern. I feel confident enough about the Timbers backline – and Diego Chara’s slow, yet steady retreat into it – to make peace with them inviting Austin to beat them. I will never not get weird about suggesting Portland play defend-‘n’-counter, but, yes, doing that feels like the best way to get a point or three and/or the best fit for the mission.

For a variety of reasons and smells, I have neither the time nor the energy for loose thoughts on the Western Conference, so I’ll offer a simple statement instead. The Timbers are in a good place right now. Even if they lose and teams like, say, Vancouver or Colorado (can’t be both!), San Diego or Minnesota win, they won’t be many points behind those same teams. Between how early it is in the regular season and the Week 7 matchups I’m seeing, my money’s on the shit-stack getting a little thicker.

All in all, I’m weighing this game between actual expectations – i.e., zero points to one point – and dreams – i.e., all three points earned, with the offense humming and the defense allowing no more than one. We’ll see how it goes…

…also, the post is still too long, goddammit.

2 comments:

  1. Glad to see that we both have the same idea of "force them to have the ball." I'm very happy that this is (hopefully) the last time that I have to seriously pay attention to Austin this year. All that spending on the attack and still missing the crucial piece (a 10) to put it all together.

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  2. Austin does not look like a super happy fun team this season, just the opposite. Strong defensive teams have this hideous habit of lingering into the playoffs, but fingers crossed this ain't the year for it.

    Also glad we saw the same thing about traffic passing through Owen Wolff. Good write up over there!

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