5 Questions for the Portland Timbers...After a Buncha Shit

I mean broadly, right? Does it feel new to you?

“With the exception of Powell, it’s been a disappointing preseason for the Timbers’ back six. Vytas’s job, obviously, isn’t secure. Olum has been only not-terrible in fill-in duty. Guzman has been subpar. Ridgewell and Mabiala have both been up-and-down. #RCTID”

- Chris Rifer tweet

Rather than speak directly as to how I feel about that tweet - for I have opinions on every point about each named name - I’ll go on for two-three pages in various directions from all that.

First, I watched three preseason games this season - that dispiriting loss to FC Dallas, the B-side scrimmage rout against New York Red Bulls II, and tonight’s 3-2 Jekyll-Hyde win against the Portland Timbers sub-nemesis, Sporting Kansas City (how does a team exorcise a double post?). In the broadest possible terms, that translated to 3 halves of depressingly flaccid soccer from Portland, against one good half and a certain number of glances down fresh avenues that look promising. As for the New York II game, I’m not sure it matters, at least not outside bolstering one particular legend.

I’m going to end/build this post around forwarding 5 questions about the Portland Timbers going into this 2018 season, but I want to park on tonight’s game before getting to those, because 1) it’s our freshest shared experience (come with me, kids!), and 2) it touches on some of the relevant sub-plots to those questions.

To start, however, with one of the least relevant points, Jake Gleeson bailed out the Timbers tonight (with one vital assist from David Guzman(?)). Contrary to the tweet above, Alvas Powell hogged the spotlight in a drunk karaoke vein - i.e., he commanded attention again and again, but missed key notes in crucial moments, and the Geiger count on those moments tracked with proximity to goal; in other words, Powell’s been Powell so far. As for big revelations, if Samuel Armenteros’ preseason hasn’t kindled some hope in your heart, seek professional help, because that fucker’s probably necrotic (shit…yer heart, not Armenteros). Between his mobility, visible glee at combination play, and a highlight reel of good finishes (and none of his finishes for Portland have looked that good so far), Armenteros looks genuinely promising - in a way that a lot of this preseason has not.

In spite of today’s come-back - which, incidentally, lifted Portland a 2-2-1/respectable preseason - Vytas Andruiskevicius busted a hamstring. (Also, thank god for Marco Farfan, and good luck, kid!) And I’m still coming to terms with the full meaning of seeing Dairon Asprilla as my second brightest spot to preseason 2018 - that’s after Armenteros. I mean…that has implications, right?

My biggest question, though, is this: does anything about the earliest days of the Portland Timbers’ 2018 look any different to you from the Caleb Porter era? During Portland’s second-half resurgence this afternoon, loose talk from the broadcast booth noted increased fitness from Timbers’ players and how can you not wonder whether that carried the day today (against the notoriously/pathologically fit SKC, especially)? OK, sure, maybe, but this really does feel like the same team that ended the 2017 season with…well, let’s talk about that.

On the one hand, this was the team that won the Western Conference in 2017. On the other hand, the same team finished 16 points under eventual champions, Toronto FC, and with 14 fewer goals scored and 13 more goals allowed. The West was harder/messier/worse than the East last season - take your pick (and does it matter?) - but I like to frame Portland’s (and the entire West’s) 2017 like so: the Chicago Fire scored more and conceded less too. Look, I don’t know where Portland fit in the grand scheme by season’s end - and, as admitted here, I checked out, like, a lot - but what I can say is that, the way I saw it, they had as much chance as any team in last year’s playoffs, but only in the sense that no MLS team was particularly good last year except Toronto FC. Think Bessie making top hog, but only as the least emaciated pig at the Dustbowl-era 4-H fair...

That’s a round-about way of saying that I found the Timbers limited by the end of 2017. While they could win any given game, there was no particular reason to think they would. If Diego Valeri did something - as he did almost literally 1/3 (or more) of the time - the game would pan out. That’s a superlatively shallow take, but, honestly, Valeri carrying this team from point to point is how I remember last season. Yeah, yeah, other players did 2/3 of the rest of the work, but that lacks a unifying narrative, so fuck it….

That’s just a framing for my personal head-space (yes, I just used a 70s derivation of a piece of 60s idiocy) for when I read this (from this):

“Portland's 3 most important players last year were Valeri, Diego Chara and Liam Ridgewell. Those guys will be 32, 34 and 32 by the middle of the season.”

The implication of that second sentence - and the whole article, really - is that the author (Matt Doyle) likes the depth better now, but he thinks it’ll still be these same players carrying the team. And, so long as their bodies hold up, I have thorough faith in two of those players doing exactly that. Between that and on the theory that the Timbers really need a Plan B this year - y’know, just in case - I found myself deeply invested in the arrival and quality of new acquisitions. Playing time for them would have been nice too, like a hug from a distant parent (Caleb), because, like any fan, I just want to know that everything will be all right. And entertaining. (Dad? You promised me a Corvette when I was 8…still waiting…I lost my hair and everything.) You could argue Timbers fans got that tonight….but I wanted more.

I think that’s what I missed most from this preseason - signs of a functioning brains trust actively working on and integrating a Plan B that will level up to Plan A at some crucial moment. Armenteros really does look like something, and credit to the powers that be, but I just wish I had a better sense of what the hell else is on the table because, in keeping with the above, Jake Zivin (probably?) and Ross Smith (Russ?) opened the loss to FC Dallas by calling that starting eleven - e.g., last year’s starting eleven - what Timbers fans should expect to see early. There were caveats, obviously - e.g., Chara will start over Lawrence Olum - but that’s still depressing. I don’t see that as a Cup winning team, never mind a Shield winning team, and that’s what I want: a team of destiny, one glowing with a blessing by the gods as a seal of personal destiny.

Don’t get me wrong: I’d be perfectly happy if Valeri, Ridgewell and Chara ponied team and fans onto those big, broad shoulders and made 2018 a season for the ages. I just don’t think they will. Hence what follows - e.g., Five (5) Questions for the Portland Timbers, heading into 2018.

1) How to Resolve the Lawrence Olum Situation?

God bless ‘im, but Olum could be one of the purest throwbacks around to MLS 2.0 - the league’s naïve early days of an eager striver. He keeps finding the field because he can play consistently and competently at any position in the central defense/midfield, and god bless him for it. That said, the only problem Olum will ever solve is another player’s absence. As such, I had to wonder why I kept seeing him this preseason instead of Cristhian Paredes or even Eryk Williamson (for the record, both those names will involve additional concentration). Here, I want to use Olum as a stand-in for a larger “situation” - i.e., the fact we know what he can do, so why the hell aren’t we seeing what Paredes, in particular, can do, and as often as possible? (I’m more curious about Williamson at this point, honestly, or even Andres Flores?) If Olum tops them, fine (or even if he’s a better locker-room presence, fine), start him when the games count. At time of writing, and until further notice, I take Olum starting - along with several other players - as clinging to a safety blanket.

2) How to Resolve the Centerback Dog-Pile?

Portland has started Ridgewell and Larrys Mabiala at central defense in every game I’ve seen so far and…seems like old times, basically, only with a bad ending. I meant to key on Mabiala today, but spaced it - and possibly for the good, clichéd reason that one only notices a center back when he’s fucking up, and Mabiala didn’t’ so, shut up, Jeff! Still, I rate the Timbers as vulnerable at center back - Mabiala remains on trial (on multiple levels, or?) and I know where I peg Ridgewell (e.g., lower than some). Basically, few positions on this team make me antsy quite like center back and that’s a lot of why I wanted to see a lot of Julio Cascante this preseason, and why I placed a stupid amount of stock in his arrival. There are qualities this team needs out there, and I’m not yet convinced we have them.

3) Will the Year 2 Guys Step Up?

While this applies to Mabiala, this question points most directly at Sebastian Blanco. At least one argument holds that the Timbers need a wide player to spread the attack. Blanco has (broadly) proved to not be that guy…that said, and this is just a one-shot conspiracy, was he brought in to replace Valeri, after Valeri (29 years old, versus 32 (soon))? My larger point is, the Timbers brought in both these players to solve problems. Mabiala has the more straightforward task - e.g., make the central defense better - but Blanco’s brief remains both more high-stakes and complex. Bluntly, can Blanco take some of the weight off Valeri on the playmaking side? Personally, I’m not sure he can do it while Valeri is around. After that, though….and can the team wait that long?

4) Do We Have…Speed?

To spin one myth out of a bad sample, Timbers (Mixed) II ripped New York Red Bulls II a bigger asshole courtesy of speed - most of it Victor Arboleda’s. Even if he relied on the finishing of Armenteros, Arboleda (and Andy Polo) got behind New York’s press over and over again with raw speed - something Portland hasn’t always had. With Armenteros, Arboleda and Polo, Portland can field a very, very fast attack. Whether off the bench, or to start. Depends on the opponent, really. Asprilla’s good on this level too. Really, it’s just how you start…which brings me to….

5) Is This All There Is?

Look, I’m ignorant on most of the league’s various financing acronyms/mechanisms, but I do think - and absent any real world basis - that Portland has invested quite a bit in Armenteros, Cascante, Paredes, and Polo. If that’s the case - and may it not be, because I always want more - are they enough to carry the club into a better future?

To get really fundamental on that last question, what does that even look like in MLS? For what it’s worth, it’s possible that Portland is in the second year of a two-year rebuild after 2015. It’s also possible they’re swinging limbs wildly like a thrashing toddler, only with fistfuls of cash and vague ambition. What I will allow is that this is a league where buying a team’s way to victory isn’t as easy as it comes elsewhere. In a league that’s done a ton of things weird, they landed that one detail, god bless ‘em.

Anyway, the season starts next Sunday against the Los Angeles Galaxy. The few things I’ve read hype them quite a bit and all I can think is, meh. Wait till the season starts. Then you’ve got something to work with. All in all, I think the Portland Timbers preseason has been accurate. I think we’ll start the 2018 as a .500 club. Where it goes from there hangs on a pile-up of details that range from injury to accomplishment. The real question hangs around the new coach, and how well he’ll read the signals. To predict something early, though, I think Portland will carry through the season as a mid-table team. What momentum they can generate at the end will determine how far they go in the post-season, but I don’t see this as a Shield-winning team.

A team that wins the Shield later, maybe. It really might come later. I mean, look at this roster and those ages. That’s a good trend, at least if the cards fall right.

All right, that’s plenty. See you next Sunday.