MLS Cup & A Season Review from an Unreliable Narrator

Is safe, comrade.

I’ll start with my post-match analysis of MLS Cup 2018: the Portland Timbers lost.

What? Matchday Central never put up a...but…fine.

To start, I didn’t mind the way the Portland Timbers approached MLS Cup; the coaching staff actually impressed me a little. They set the line of confrontation higher than I expected, but that worked out, at least until a goal forced them to chase the game. Prior to that, Portland did a good job keeping Atlanta United FC in front of them. I hadn’t looked at the box score till now and…wow, that’s a balanced game, even to the point of equilibrium. Well, everywhere else but the score sheet. And that’s how you lose a game, people.

Here’s the thing with the last game of a season: there isn’t much to say beyond who won and who lost. No matter how feverishly the players itch for that shot a redemption, the next game won’t come till the next season. And what happened was really simple: Portland let in two crap goals, both of them dismal two-steppers. The broadcast team lamented the heavy touch by Jeremy Ebobisse on the first goal, but it was Ebobisse’s search for a better pass that slowed him down long enough for Michael Parkhurst (dude, not the fastest) to pick the ball off his toe. Parkhurst’s tackle left nothing between Josef Martinez and Portland’s yawning goal but Liam Ridgewell’s failure to stick all the way in. In a bit of cosmic unfairness, Ridgewell starred again on the second goal, this time by losing track of Josef “Single-Season-Fucking-Scoring-Record” Martinez, who would knock a header to a streaking Franco Escobar at the back post, aka, the guy Jorge Villafana lost. Two massive two-step mistakes, two goals, and the rest of it becomes what might have been – e.g., what if Ebobisse powered the ball across the goal instead of cushioning the deflection too near Atlanta ‘keeper, Brad Guzan? Had the Timbers leveled the score four-five minutes after Atlanta’s opener, who knows what might have been?

I fretted a little theatrically over Ebobisse’s mental state in a since-deleted tweet, but that’s misplaced nonsense because good players learn from mistakes. We’ll see how he handles this one, not just next season, but over the next couple; that’ll drop the relevant hints on Ebobisse’s ceiling. On that, Ridgewell had a bad night, an unfortunate capper on a season where he’d shown the mental resilience of three men by swallowing a benching and surviving an injury to become a key steadying influence during the MLS Cup run. How far did he climb in my mind: a trip down memory lane revealed that I’d written Ridgewell out of the team’s script somewhere in the middle of the season (Game 17, as it happens). The man enjoyed a side of redemption with his solid season, basically.

Alphonso Davies 2-1 Portland Timbers: Anatomy of a Gamble with a Big(ass) MLS Playoff Preview

thank you andres flores.

The Portland Timbers tipped their hands when it announced the starting eleven: getting rest for key players like Diegos Valeri and Chara, Sebastian Blanco, uh, Zarek Valentin, Liam Ridgewell, Larrys Mabiala…you should be sensing a pattern by now…probably even Jeremy Ebobisse; at any rate, the Timbers decided three points today mattered less than giving those players and a few more the best chance at being their best possible selves for Wednesday’s first-round playoff game at FC Dallas. (Halloween, guys, really? You’re gonna make fans choose?)

No one will know whether the gamble paid off until the final whistle blows on Halloween, but the Timbers’ understudies couldn’t hold up their end: they lost 2-1 to Alphonso Davies, who got a genuinely nice sending off from teammates and Vancouver Whitecaps fans after turning in a game-winning nearly-90 minutes at BC Place. As Davies sat on the sideline contemplating his personal reality, the TV flashed his career MLS statistics. Eight goals and 12 assists over 65 games. At first blush, you think, huh, thought it’d be higher. Bayern’s Munich’s decision to sign him only adds up when one clocks that Davies produced all of those numbers less one assist in 2018. The way he turned a seam into a tear to score his first goal explains the rest.

Portland's decision to field an army of stand-ins means there’s not a lot to say about this game beyond, guess that’s why they’re not starters. I’ll dig into the numbers down below, but I’m also going to come back later tonight to update this post with a broad-brush look at what the Timbers, and the rest of the teams who made the 2018 MLS Playoffs, look like heading into the post-season. That’ll take some research, but I should send that out into the world by the end of the night. There were some shocks across the league today, seismic, “two in the booter,” and so on.

Back to the Timbers, do I approve of the overall decision to rest, oh, everyone who has reliably proved to be someone this season? Yes, even though it meant Portland (effectively) threw away the chance to catch FC Dallas for the honor of hosting their first round playoff tie. Making that come off would have required a lot of things to go Portland’s way - e.g., Dallas losing at Colorado Rapids (check!) and Portland winning on the road by more than two goals. That’s not some pie-in-the-sky scenario - the Timbers beat RSL by three goals in Utah a few weeks ago - but that also meant giving up something as wholly tangible and valuable as well-rested starters. Add in the fact that Dallas lost its last three games of the season, and that they’d hardly been ruthless before that - 3-4-3 in the last 10 games, and those three wins came against at home against Houston and Orlando, and away to Vancouver - and the entire plan takes a step past safe toward cagey.

Portland Timbers 0-0 FC Dallas: A Time to Take Chances

Just because it feels good, doesn't mean it's right.

I’m not sure where to start this post, so I’ll start with Jeff Attinella. Seeing him go down twisted the knot in my stomach a little tighter for the Portland Timbers’ slide down the shute of the 2018 inevitable end-run. It’s not that I think Steve Clark isn’t a good goalkeeper, than I think Attinella is a better ‘keeper. And with the Portland Timbers teetering on the edge of a margin, this team needs every advantage it can get. I don’t know a thing about the recovery time for separating shoulders (it happened a second time, and during the game, right?), but I’d rather have one steady ‘keeper back there, than have a guy start, then try to keep a semi-meaningless ball from rolling off the field, and then, after two-three arduous minutes, get his arm back in place only to have pop out again.

Look, I’m slapping the turf with Jeff Attinella, not at Jeff Attinella. Bottom line, while I might think Attinella is a better ‘keeper, I’m also at a place where I want the best possible, consistently fieldable iteration of the Portland Timbers on the field every week until their whole goddamn season ends - even if that means starting Clark (the fuck you mean “fieldable” isn't a word?).

That said, minus one highly relevant player (see: Blanco, Sebastian), the Timbers fielded its A-team tonight and…look, it’ll take a miracle for this team to do anything serious in 2018. I took a handful of pros and cons away from this game, but the overarching marker for Portland tops out at “good.” A team with any worthwhile mojo wins a game like this - i.e., if they can’t break down one of the top teams in the league with Plan A, they can put a call in to Plan B and get a result or rescue a draw. Generally speaking - and this game coughed up more than the usual number of “yes, buts” - the Timbers aren’t built to do that. That Blanco was missing didn’t help, but, on the evidence, his presence hasn’t been make or break for Portland this season, even as he makes the team usefully better.

At the same time, what goes for Portland applies to Dallas: they’re more or less a solid defensive team with a handful of useful means to get to goal and, Lord willing, score them. Overall, Dallas is every bit as unremarkable as the Timbers - i.e., their results don’t catch the eye, and they’ve lately relied on certain, specific people (in their case, Michael Barrios) to keep them in the running. Close observers of the Portland Timbers should find that both accurate, and a little sad, because, no matter how you arrange the letters, none of what happened tonight, and for either team, spells “G-L-O-R-Y.” Call last night’s 0-0 draw a blown opportunity for both teams, and, holy shit, is that really the first time I mentioned the score?

Portland Timbers 2-2 L'Impact du Montreal: Thank You, Evan Bush

Anyone have Evan Bush's home address?

To start with the obvious, the Portland Timbers have neither scored so many, nor allowed so many, shitty goals in the 2018 season than they did in last night’s 2-2 draw (at home, dammit) against L’Impact Montreal. They’ve run a tight ship over the past dozen games, but that ship sprang some leaks over their last 90 minutes of play - and, arguably, over their last 180 minutes of play. With their U.S. Open Cup loss to Los Angeles FC, you could point to the subs (as I did in here, David Guzman), the quality of LAFC, and say, “Professor Green, in the bathroom, with that tactical combat knife he ordered online.” The clues don’t add up as easily for last night’s draw.

I’ll start by saying, 1) I’m not panicking, and 2) you lose a little nuance when tracking just the results. I’d heard the rumors that Montreal’s defense had improved, but argued (or held out hope) that the teams their defense had improved against comprised some part of the improvement. That said, if there’s an edge to give in tonight’s game, the Montreal Impact scored the better goals. The Timbers, on the other hand, dredged dark, disgusting things from the grime of the ballast deck. It is what it is, the unbeaten streak continues and, to bright side things a bit, the Timbers came back twice, thereby scooping their points out of some tight spaces.

All that said, this was a bigger result for Montreal. I’m high enough on Portland to think they should have won this game outright and with little complication…and then L’Impact scored the first goal. It was a pick-pocket classic, a toe-poke on a sloppy pass, the kind of play/goal the New York Red Bulls have ridden to success in recent seasons. The Timbers back-line responded…poorly, getting stretched to and fro (Lawrence, Lawrence, Lawrence), but plays like that file nicely under “it all happened so fast.” If anything, Montreal’s second goal was worse, one of those wax-on, switch-off situations that follows from a long ball (by Ignacio Piatti, of all people) to Matteo Mancosu, who had so much net to shoot at that it would have been harder to miss his shot (Jeff, Jeff, Jeff). That was the second go-ahead goal for a Montreal team that should have had none. And yet they did.

If there’s a worrying trend of any kind for Portland, it’s letting in the first goal. If there’s a horse they’ve ridden to success, it’s scoring first, or keeping the other side from scoring at all. That matters because this Portland Timbers team is designed to hold the game together until it takes the lead. That’s the logic of the Christmas Tree - i.e., you can’t score on me, but, if I score on you, you’re fucked, because Christmas Tree, motherfucker. It wasn't clear how regularly Portland managed games until I went back and counted last week, but that dynamic - i.e., scoring first, etc. - has defined the team's unbeaten streak. Back to Montreal, and their defense, I think I read they’ve adopted a similar system - and, with that front three (e.g., Piatti, Mancosu, and Alejandro Silva) they, like, Portland, have the talent to attack on the cheap (i.e., by committing fewer players). Montreal definitely played compact last night, a 4-5-1, with the “4” and the “5” in easy spitting distance of one another (“Stocky Christmas?”); they set up in a way that required the Timbers to break them down…

Portland Timbers 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes: Looking for Trouble on the Enthusiasm Express

Went a little abstract. Feels right. Cool drawing...

Dear God, where do I start this one? (Also, I mean not in the “Lord protect me” spirit, but the “holy whirling dervishes whirling in my head” spirit…tricky metaphor…)

I’ll begin by stating that I like everything about Samuel Armenteros, except what he did with his beard. It's his life, and all that, but also please reconsider.

In another vein, I saw a handful of tweets from last night to earlier this afternoon celebrating how the Portland Timbers played last night in their 2-1 win over the visiting San Jose Earthquakes. It’s a hard point to argue against, so I’ll do that later. For now, though, I’m on board The Enthusiasm Express. The last time a win felt possible before every single game, the Timbers won MLS Cup. And that’s the thing: a couple soft spots aside - again, Alvas Powell, but never catastrophically, and there’s still solving the problem of who either complements the team’s core players*, or replaces them when they go down - every player on the field moves and passes as if they know what’s next, and where his teammates should be for support. That applies to both defense and offense, and that is fucking magical, like, a fairy riding a unicorn level magical. The results have followed from too, and I say that as someone who replies to the words “eleven game unbeaten streak” with a tight smile. To put that another way, I’m on board The Enthusiasm Express, but I keep glimpsing troubling things out of the corner of my eye.

Before getting to the meat of this thing, I want to make a point and sort of save it for later. Think how you use a stringer to keep the fish you catch alive. That point: Armenteros should never have scored that second goal, just by the number of San Jose players around him. Moving on...

(* Diegos Valeri and Chara, Sebastian Blanco, Jeff Attinella, Larrys Mabiala and Zarek Valentin; I waited till after mentioning Armenteros because I think he belongs in the core at this point. A case can be made for other players, and that explains a lot of Portland's success to this point.)

Seattle Sounders 2-3 Portland Timbers: On Confidence & A Larrys Charm in Your Back Pocket

Should make you appreciate the horror of this "good luck" charm...

I posted something late last week as a kind of ambient response to the “wacky unpredictability” of Major League Soccer as a league. I explained the theory behind the response in that original post - and at just plain fucking stupid length, btw - but, here, I mostly want to circle back on how the predictions I made based on that data fared in its first weekend…

…yes, I see the title. I wrote it. It’s relevant, so, please bear with me.

I made 10 predictions on 11 games (on Twitter) - I couldn’t get a clear read on the game that ended with the New England Revolution beating a struggling, game-poor DC United 3-2, so I didn’t call that one - but I got six correct outright. I saw the rough outlines of two more games and, honestly, that New England game broke down about how I expected it to, so that’s either 8-9 broadly correct predictions using what I now feel confident enough to dub The System (and that’s so, so misplaced). As for the games I missed, I think 9 educated pundits in 10 would have called those games the same way - e.g., the Montreal Impact has no business beating Sporting Kansas City and, while Chicago has some legit juice, they’ve mostly been good against weaker teams, so I thought New York City FC would beat them, but, nope, things panned out the other way ‘round…

…I’m also cognizant that NYCFC is adapting to a new coach and they’ve been a little more streaky than the top-, top-tier teams in MLS, so why not a slip? And yet, that somehow doesn’t explain SKC tripping over its own toes in Montreal. I might actually have to watch some tape on that shit, poke around for defects, etc. (Probably not, I got other things, but you never know.)

Contra (what I’m now calling) The SKC Exception, the Portland Timbers' 3-2 win over the Seattle Sounders made sense. It was also a big cold dish of revenge (BONUS!), but key, results-based trends for both teams predicted the distribution of points - e.g., Portland’s steady defense against Seattle’s sputtering attack, the Sounders’ global mediocrity, especially against MLS’s better teams (a-HEM!). Some recent developments - e.g., injuries to Stefan Frei and Roman Torres (aka, arguably the two ventricles of Seattle’s defense) - opened the chance for Portland to run up the score.

Colorado Rapids 2-3 Portland Timbers: The Simplest Joys (and Choices)

Life is better when time/space bends.

“I expect more of myself than that.”

- Samuel Armenteros, saying exactly what you want a player to say

Armenteros undoubtedly endeared himself to, well, every person who cries green and gold in either mood (joy and sadness, obvs), and he hit the perfect tone with his humble and hungry post-game interview with Nat Borchers. Diego Valeri, on the other hand, probably struck a deeper vein when he had his turn to chat with Borchers; so long as a team knows what it’s doing out there, the questions start and end with doing it and, in Valeri’s words, not thinking about the past. What I mean is, sometimes a pile of clichés about just doing better, being better says everything. Especially when you’re on a six-game winning streak. Alternately (or not), there this:

“The Timbers probably aren't thinking much about the big picture.”

I lifted that from MLSSoccer.com’s recap, precisely because I’m not entirely sure what it means. These Timbers are playing well and just needs to keep doing…just that - i.e., as Valeri and Armenteros said, between them, they just need to keep doing what they do, only more and better. The scales balanced out in the box score, but a Colorado Rapids team looking for bright spots needs better. The Timbers, meanwhile, have all the good news they could possibly want: a confident road win where the opposition could only score through the Timbers defense - e.g., Julio Cascante’s trying-too-hard (but thanks for trying!) own-goal and a late, late show penalty that I, frankly, didn’t care enough to get upset about. And here’s why:

“I expect boring and low-scoring. Worst-case, the Colorado Rapids hold down the fort for 80+ minutes, then steal a goal/win after Portland’s legs/lungs give out.”

“Best case the Portland Timbers scores early, forcing the Rapids to play. Could run up the score on that  (8/10)”

That tweet, by me and one day before the game, amounts to what I expect to be a mediocre movie and walking out…just thrilled. This game was my Wachowski (Then?) Brothers' Speed Racer, basically, with way less cool lights/effects (OMG, it's full of stars) and perhaps a couple fewer fleets of fancy. Don’t me wrong: that’s a good thing. The Portland Timbers have again achieved the state of semi-boring, somewhat-reliable predictability that results in one win after another. Six wins, in fact.

Portland Timbers 2-1 Los Angeles FC: A Song for the Unsung

Yes, that fucking good. "Everyone around the world...C'MON!!"

To venture into personally unfamiliar territory, seeing Liam Ridgewell pull up gimpy made me nervous. I’m generally cool on Ridgewell, but I’d also bought into this idea of balance and roles within recent Portland Timbers starting elevens, and balance between roles, and that idea seemed…threatened when Ridgewell lay face-down on the turf contemplating his bad luck, and by the idea of any given piece coming out of it. And so early in the game, too…

To spare one last thought for Ridgewell, I’m happy he played his way (back?) into my heart and confidence (just…I’ve always been a hardass with Ridgewell) before whatever injury struck him today, god speed and scare the shit out of the other guys as soon as you can, Liam, and thanks! Conversely, I was absolutely fucking thrilled, 1) to see Larrys Mabiala continue to look like Portland’s best central defender and, 2) that Julio Cascante came in, had at least two massive moments, and, one threatening ball skipping between his legs aside, looked like he could start if circumstance or Giovanni Savarese came calling. And the team has Bill Tuiloma in the back pocket inside its back pocket, and he’s been competent, if not good, and all that together could mean a stable central defense for the length of the season. Even if you think a great defense is the worst part of a championship team (it is), they matter immensely, and the Timbers have a sorted, solid defense, or at least one that keeps delivering - even via the understudies. And that leaves them only needing a slick attack in order to achieve unicorn-awesome, a real thing, look at the internet.

Before leaving the defense, I want to salute Zarek Valentin for starring in this afternoon’s game. My sense that I saw his face as much as anyone else’s and more than most hints at how often LAFC attacked Valentin’s flank, and all the LAFC clearances he sent back into their attacking third after set-pieces kept Portland in at least three attacks. I'm sure other players' names will get more mention after the game, but I think the broadcast booth mentioned Valentin’s more during it; he was everywhere he needed to be and a quarter-step early. Based on the past three, four weeks, Valentin wants to stay on the field pretty damn bad. That’s…just great.

Los Angeles Galaxy 1-2 Portland Timbers: We Have Our (or Some) Dignity

The right kind of vulnerable.

To begin at the actual beginning, I’ll have to switch up a thing or two about “My Process” in the post-condensed-game MLSLive era. The only way I can dial back in to pick up more detail is to watch the entire game all over and again, and no. With that in mind, this week will take a high angle view of the situation that is, at this point in time, by no means perilous.

And that’s the top-line question about the Portland Timbers’ 1-2 road loss to the Los Angeles Galaxy already answered: am I happy with it? Tentatively, and on the level that I didn’t expect any different. Also, the team caught a break in that they didn’t melt into a putrescent puddle after giving up a second goal to the Galaxy. The Timbers stumbled to the edge of the abyss Atlanta United FC visited in their opening loss, but didn’t fall in. And that’s not so bad after a bad performance.

Put that in the context of how much one (maybe two) pundit(s) hyped the Galaxy heading into 2018, and given that big goddamn field - which, as I failed to adequately explain to the people I watched the game with last night, takes Portland out of their element like few fields in MLS - this made for a gutsy start to the Timbers’ 2018. And I say that as someone who, at this point, ranks winning the Supporters’ Shield over all trophies. Face it, MLS Cup is just having a go at the leftovers excellence leaves behind…

My neuroses - or just that specific set of neuroses - can wait for a bit because I want to, 1) get back to the game, and 2) talk more about how I see the Portland Timbers’ 2018. Also, 2)(a) I want to talk about what I see doing with posts like these for the season. With that, let’s start with 2)(a).

With this 2018 Major League Soccer season, my plan is to start with a post about what just happened with the Portland Timbers during and after any game they play (except, say, U.S. Open Cup, which I couldn’t care less about, and the powers that be have only themselves to blame for that). I want those up on Sunday night in the future (ideally), but the plan is to update the same post with anything worthwhile I stumble across on MLSSoccer.com throughout the week. What this should produce is a standard, evolving Portland Timbers/MLS post for each week of the season (when I’m not on vacation, because I’ll totally be on vacation later this year). In a perfect world, this’ll involve just adding touches to the Timbers material, while actually filling in the blanks on notable news from the rest of MLS (i.e., the Houston Dynamo dropping four pieces of unanswered hurt on Atlanta United FC, which supports a personal theory that they’re short on defense). This is idea without action so far, but it feels really, really promising conceptually, so just pretend it happened and was wildly successful (PLEASE!!??).

5 Questions for the Portland Timbers...After a Buncha Shit

I mean broadly, right? Does it feel new to you?

“With the exception of Powell, it’s been a disappointing preseason for the Timbers’ back six. Vytas’s job, obviously, isn’t secure. Olum has been only not-terrible in fill-in duty. Guzman has been subpar. Ridgewell and Mabiala have both been up-and-down. #RCTID”

- Chris Rifer tweet

Rather than speak directly as to how I feel about that tweet - for I have opinions on every point about each named name - I’ll go on for two-three pages in various directions from all that.

First, I watched three preseason games this season - that dispiriting loss to FC Dallas, the B-side scrimmage rout against New York Red Bulls II, and tonight’s 3-2 Jekyll-Hyde win against the Portland Timbers sub-nemesis, Sporting Kansas City (how does a team exorcise a double post?). In the broadest possible terms, that translated to 3 halves of depressingly flaccid soccer from Portland, against one good half and a certain number of glances down fresh avenues that look promising. As for the New York II game, I’m not sure it matters, at least not outside bolstering one particular legend.

I’m going to end/build this post around forwarding 5 questions about the Portland Timbers going into this 2018 season, but I want to park on tonight’s game before getting to those, because 1) it’s our freshest shared experience (come with me, kids!), and 2) it touches on some of the relevant sub-plots to those questions.

To start, however, with one of the least relevant points, Jake Gleeson bailed out the Timbers tonight (with one vital assist from David Guzman(?)). Contrary to the tweet above, Alvas Powell hogged the spotlight in a drunk karaoke vein - i.e., he commanded attention again and again, but missed key notes in crucial moments, and the Geiger count on those moments tracked with proximity to goal; in other words, Powell’s been Powell so far. As for big revelations, if Samuel Armenteros’ preseason hasn’t kindled some hope in your heart, seek professional help, because that fucker’s probably necrotic (shit…yer heart, not Armenteros). Between his mobility, visible glee at combination play, and a highlight reel of good finishes (and none of his finishes for Portland have looked that good so far), Armenteros looks genuinely promising - in a way that a lot of this preseason has not.

In spite of today’s come-back - which, incidentally, lifted Portland a 2-2-1/respectable preseason - Vytas Andruiskevicius busted a hamstring. (Also, thank god for Marco Farfan, and good luck, kid!) And I’m still coming to terms with the full meaning of seeing Dairon Asprilla as my second brightest spot to preseason 2018 - that’s after Armenteros. I mean…that has implications, right?