Sporting Kansas City 2-2 Portland Timbers: Tumbling Dice

Feels disturbingly like the best option....go on, Dairon.

Full disclosure: I had to check out of the Portland Timbers 2-2 draw away to Sporting Kansas City around the 60th minute. I don’t use “had to” lightly either. You see, we enrolled late in this bowling league, but the week before we joined, a guy with two open spots invited two dudes to play with him and his girlfriend, only we bowled with the guy and his girlfriend in Week 2, but agreed that his invitees had first dibs, so we stayed home Week 3 to see what happened, only they didn’t show up, then we post-bowled the Tuesday after, at which point they told us they gave the guy an ultimatum that, if we showed up, we’re in (or something like that). So, with them holding that spot for us, and the guy’s friends kicked to the curb, how would it have looked had I not shown up? The disrespect would have broken the Bowler’s Code, which I assume is real, without investigation.

Real-world shit aside, my top-line comment about the Timbers is that they don’t look a whole lot better than Sporting KC, and look where they are. My second comment is, Jesus Christ, what a fucking mess. I’m not just talking about Alan Chapman’s officiating either, but the entire four-team mud-wrestling Battle Royale in a steel cage over a pit of rabid caimans that will cut the last two Western Conference teams from the 2019 MLS Playoffs. The Timbers have the edge, if only by virtue of having one more point (46) than FC Dallas (45) and two points more than the San Jose Earthquakes (44), aka, the team they can fuck up three ways to Sunday on “Decision Day brought to you by some company with hostile customer service,” but, sure, a draw at home against the ‘Quakes could see them through – it’d put San Jose at powerful risk, if nothing else - but wouldn’t you rather see your hometown team whip one of those wicked, Fast-and-Furious 180’s and drive into the playoffs with the car pointing the right fucking way?

I don’t see anything so stirring happening, either; Portland has been your biological dad taking you to the restaurant you loved four years ago for a couple months now. In the same vein, I’ve lowered my expectations for Portland to them showing up and trying, and seeing what that gets them. It’s been a lot of draws lately, and yet they’re still (narrow) favorites for the playoffs, which means the Timbers’ plan sucked a little less than the teams below them.

At the same time, can your faith in last-gap glory be restored in late-stage 2019? Would, say, Sebastian Blanco following tonight’s beauty (along with some other threatening looks) do it? Would it take Diego Valeri balling like 2015, or scoring off a late-run header a la 2017 (is that the right season)? Would it take another Jeremy Ebobisse brace, or would you need Dairon Asprilla looking like Mr. October again as he did taking that penalty (and may the good Lord bless the wisdom of whoever decided to hand him the kick)?

I don’t have a lot of dissecting to do after that. Sure, the refereeing looked more like primate studies (e.g., how much cognitive dissonance can 22 men withstand?) than justice, but the madness balanced out tolerably, whether by letting Ebobisse get away with what looked one hell of a lot like an offside run that led to Portland’s penalty (that said, it wasn't; isolate on 0:10 in this clip) after letting SKC’s Johnny Russell get away with what looked one hell of a lot like offside positioning on SKC’s equalizing goal (nothing in those highlights, btw, but Instant Replay will almost certainly cover it). I never heard a final word as to what led to Brian Fernandez getting sent off (didn’t look either; see, bowling), and maybe that made it easier to throw a straight red at Roger Espinoza’s “hand-to-neck” grasp at Blanco’s neck. The calls may or may not have balanced out in the grand scheme, but the “capers” that MLS referees get up to seem to strike with the random fury of lightning, only far, far more often...and, by some miracle, with even less planning. Moving on…

At this point in the season, it’s pretty clear that the Portland Timbers will either win or they won’t – and it’s been five games without “will,” so that’s the math. For anyone looking for a silver lining, I offer the following list, in order of importance:

1) The team doesn’t give up on games. Sure, they fuck up (or get fucked; see the draw versus the New England Revolution), but I can’t fault any player on the team for lack of effort. That matters, at least when it comes to avoiding losses. It certainly mattered tonight, especially after going down a goal at the start of the first half. About that…

2) The defending wasn’t, like, egregious on that goal. Sure, SKC played through the left side of the Timbers’ defense, but Portland’s defensive shape was decent (something that can’t be said for points thereafter), and it took a lucky bounce or two for the ball to stick to Gianluca Busio’s foot.

3) This was probably Sebastian Blanco’s best game in a month. That could be the opposition – this was a pretty open game – but Blanco found openings in a way he hasn’t lately, so hopefully that’s the start of a trend.

4) Marvin Loria’s assist on Blanco’s opener took real poise/patience and he had it/them.

5) My recollection could be mistaken, but I think letting Asprilla take and make a penalty activates his “Mr. October State” (also, don’t test him for PEDs, because what if?).

6) Giovanni Savarese clearly kept his powder dry (if accidentally here and there) for the final home game against San Jose. Larrys Mabiala was suspended (and Claude Dielna did…fine), and he'll be available, Jorge Moreira (suspended? [Update: Nope! Also getting rested.]) will be available, while both Valeri (not suspended, right?) and Ebobisse will both be rested. As such, Portland should be able to field something damned close to its best team – especially if they successfully appeal Fernandez's yellow card. Related, give Fernandez time, and the team time to figure him out. (That said, I saw some comments on his hot-headedness, and those weren’t out of line.)

Against those advantages, you have the following, and in order: 1) “effort” has still delivered only 3 points from 15 games, and those were all more or less "advantage-Portland" kinds of games; 2) it’s still four goals for and seven goals against (1.4 goals per game, eh), which means that’s not good enough; 3) what if it’s a one-off; 4) fuck it, he’s been better/more positive than Andy Polo; 5) pending; 6) home field and all combinations of Portland’s starters failed to buy them points down the stretch, and even if that doesn’t matter next weekend, it presents a rather sizeable obstacle between the Portland Timbers and any form of tangible success in 2019.

My guess is that the Timbers make the 2019 playoffs – related, fuck it if they don’t because they wouldn’t deserve it, not with all those advantages. In the event they do, I don’t see them going far and, if they do, they’ll be no less offensive than the Seattle Sounders were when they made MLS Cup 2017, and proceeded to make that year, and the year before that, among the worst finals in MLS history.

As I see it, Portland Timbers 2019 never turned into a team to get excited about; it’s a team to support in the hopes of giving guys like Diego Chara, Diego Valeri, and, sure, Sebastian Blanco, and maybe even Jorge Villafana another happy memory before they check out. It’ll be tough as hell to even get close to there this year, but I’m happy to keep pulling for it. And them.