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| That's the best image I could find for "curse." Infrastructure? |
The Portland Timbers have scored just 1.0 goal per game in their past 10 games. They just crossed over into playing sub-.500 ball (4-5-1), the excuse they were playing tough teams at home dried up with games against DC United (a loss) and the New York Red Bulls (a loss), and it continued today against Minnesota United FC, even if the excuse was better. They haven’t scored at home in three whole goddamn games, and that makes the following question the only game in town: are the Timbers cursed or are they just not good enough in 2019?
Today’s goal-less/soul-less draw at home against MinnesotaUnited FC gave state’s evidence for cursed. Portland created real chances (shit, more than I thought too) and, to be clear, most of their best chances were not among the 11 shots on goal, if for no better reason than Cristhian Paredes’ header off the post doesn’t count as a shot on goal, also, make your subjective metrics better, dammit. To reframe the issue, and properly: Portland created chances and opportunities just fine; they just don’t put them way. Also, yes, the issue of making bad decisions, or piss away a half decade before making a bad decision (see, Polo, Andy) plays into the whoa-whoa-woes the Timbers have to wrestle to ground down the short neck of 2019.
And, to circle back to the question/issue left hanging at the end of the first paragraph, Portland has played every one of the past 10 games at home, except the loss on the road to this same Minnesota team at the beginning of that 10-game stretch. So, that’s four points of six to Minnesota to bookend the beginning of Portland’s demise(?), and that makes a case that Portland has found its natural habitat at the fringes of the red velvet rope that divides teams in and out of the MLS playoffs…which, again, is the opposite of exclusive. More teams still make it into the MLS playoffs than don’t, and that's the real-world measure of how badly you have to be doing things – and globally – to miss out. The bar is low and the Timbers’ chances of failing to clear it get higher with every result that falls short of three points.
Today’s goal-less/soul-less draw at home against MinnesotaUnited FC gave state’s evidence for cursed. Portland created real chances (shit, more than I thought too) and, to be clear, most of their best chances were not among the 11 shots on goal, if for no better reason than Cristhian Paredes’ header off the post doesn’t count as a shot on goal, also, make your subjective metrics better, dammit. To reframe the issue, and properly: Portland created chances and opportunities just fine; they just don’t put them way. Also, yes, the issue of making bad decisions, or piss away a half decade before making a bad decision (see, Polo, Andy) plays into the whoa-whoa-woes the Timbers have to wrestle to ground down the short neck of 2019.
And, to circle back to the question/issue left hanging at the end of the first paragraph, Portland has played every one of the past 10 games at home, except the loss on the road to this same Minnesota team at the beginning of that 10-game stretch. So, that’s four points of six to Minnesota to bookend the beginning of Portland’s demise(?), and that makes a case that Portland has found its natural habitat at the fringes of the red velvet rope that divides teams in and out of the MLS playoffs…which, again, is the opposite of exclusive. More teams still make it into the MLS playoffs than don’t, and that's the real-world measure of how badly you have to be doing things – and globally – to miss out. The bar is low and the Timbers’ chances of failing to clear it get higher with every result that falls short of three points.
That said, Minnesota posed a bigger than average challenge for a struggling team. Whether it was Chase Gasper running down more plays than he should have (he had two huge moments, minimum), Jan Gregus sending clean looks at goal just wide, a Michael Boxall header, or Mason Toye running dangerously up the middle, Minnesota found plenty of ways to keep the Timbers honest and on both sides of the ball. The question is how honest and how much it mattered. This looked like a high-attempt game for Portland because it was: 29 shots, with 11 shots on goal usually buys a team a at least one damn goal; hell, that usually delivers a win. The problem wasn’t a lack of opportunity, possession, or anything else but bad finishing and lacking that little something extra, that certain je ne sais quoi that makes a team sassy. Maybe Portland burned through its supply of sassy earlier this season, and they played above their collective heads for a while. (I can’t be the only one thinking that at this point? Mabye? More later.)
The Timbers never got a victory nor a goal. They didn’t get robbed either. As much as they looked more likely to score than Minnesota ever did, it sure as hell felt like they’d come up with 12 ways to miss before they found a clear shot on goal. Portland might have had its most 2019 moment in the first half when Blanco’s fired his first clear shot toward goal straight into the middle of Larrys Mabiala’s back; it could have gone anywhere, but that's where it impacted. The really messed up thing was that this was the third wave of an attack that started off a corner kick – which was why Mabiala was way the hell up there in the first place. Story of the past five nights….
A win today, no matter how ugly, could have put Portland’s fate in its own hands. I guess they don’t want it. At time of writing FC Dallas and New York City FC remain tied deep into stoppage. (It just ended in a 1-1 draw, actually). The draw puts Dallas one point ahead, but Portland has a game in hand. That game comes against the New England Revolution…shit, mid-week, which is so much not helping. With the demands between results and rest running more or less equal, I don’t know how Giovanni Savarese doesn’t play some version of his first team – and that’s facing a concomitant demand to basically win out. I’d still try to give Diego Chara a game off in the next one (because he who rarely makes mistakes made at least three by my count tonight), which would pair Paredes with Renzo Zambrano, a more healed Andres Flores or....just give Chara a break. Chara needs a break.
I’ve noted the final three opponents plenty of times (icymi, that’s v New England, at SKC, v San Jose), but every question points to Portland. A playoff-ready team beats those first two, no questions asked, while the San Jose game mostly runs a rule against the state of general confidence. But (big butt), would you put down money on the Timbers as a playoff team right now? If not, what’s the big reason? For all the questions that surround the team, what’s the biggest one?
I think the players know a problem exists – on the attacking side, especially - and they don’t know how to fix it. I think Savarese knows it too, but in a different way. There’s a sense of helplessness that’s vivid to anyone attuned to it. As noted above, the Timbers created enough chances to win tonight, only they didn’t. And they aren’t. And it’s that simple.
To close out on some random thoughts:
- At some point during the broadcast, Taylor Twellman talked about how having Ike Opara in central defense freed Minnesota to take more chances in the attack. In a pinch, they know they can look behind themselves and think, “Ike’s got this.” And he usually does. I’d argue that Portland gets the same security out of Larrys Mabiala. They’re just a more comfortable team with him out there and, hell yes, I think he should be team captain. When he’s healthy.
- I’ve heard Brian Fernandez is unusually fast (also, first time I’ve mentioned him, which feels significant), and I’ve hear Andy Polo is exceptionally fast. As to both claims, even if I accede the ground, does it matter? Fernandez has made an impact 12 times this season (even when it didn’t matter), while Polo is…factually, nowhere. He falls short on attacking stats, he falls farther short on the eye-test, and, while I know he’s who the Timbers have right now and that Valeri, Blanco, or Chara(?) needs a rest, Polo doesn’t really deliver anything and, at age 24, he really should be at this point.
Back to speed, though, the issue isn’t that neither Fernandez nor Polo look league-elite in that category, it’s the blunter reality that Blanco has league-average speed, while Valeri does not, and that’s its on can of worms. In sum, neither of the Timbers’ key players feel capable of regularly beating a player off the dribble anymore (yeah, I know; hence, "regularly"), or even to a ball played into space. Is it possible that every other team in MLS has already figured that out and adjusted accordingly? If so, next year is gonna be all kinds of hell.
When all’s said and done, the Timbers look like they can draw anyone, and beat no one. That holds even more true as long as Mabiala is out there. When he’s not, they can lose to anyone. With that, I think I’ve described the Timbers level heading down the 2019 home-stretch. Here’s to hoping the next game goes better.
The Timbers never got a victory nor a goal. They didn’t get robbed either. As much as they looked more likely to score than Minnesota ever did, it sure as hell felt like they’d come up with 12 ways to miss before they found a clear shot on goal. Portland might have had its most 2019 moment in the first half when Blanco’s fired his first clear shot toward goal straight into the middle of Larrys Mabiala’s back; it could have gone anywhere, but that's where it impacted. The really messed up thing was that this was the third wave of an attack that started off a corner kick – which was why Mabiala was way the hell up there in the first place. Story of the past five nights….
A win today, no matter how ugly, could have put Portland’s fate in its own hands. I guess they don’t want it. At time of writing FC Dallas and New York City FC remain tied deep into stoppage. (It just ended in a 1-1 draw, actually). The draw puts Dallas one point ahead, but Portland has a game in hand. That game comes against the New England Revolution…shit, mid-week, which is so much not helping. With the demands between results and rest running more or less equal, I don’t know how Giovanni Savarese doesn’t play some version of his first team – and that’s facing a concomitant demand to basically win out. I’d still try to give Diego Chara a game off in the next one (because he who rarely makes mistakes made at least three by my count tonight), which would pair Paredes with Renzo Zambrano, a more healed Andres Flores or....just give Chara a break. Chara needs a break.
I’ve noted the final three opponents plenty of times (icymi, that’s v New England, at SKC, v San Jose), but every question points to Portland. A playoff-ready team beats those first two, no questions asked, while the San Jose game mostly runs a rule against the state of general confidence. But (big butt), would you put down money on the Timbers as a playoff team right now? If not, what’s the big reason? For all the questions that surround the team, what’s the biggest one?
I think the players know a problem exists – on the attacking side, especially - and they don’t know how to fix it. I think Savarese knows it too, but in a different way. There’s a sense of helplessness that’s vivid to anyone attuned to it. As noted above, the Timbers created enough chances to win tonight, only they didn’t. And they aren’t. And it’s that simple.
To close out on some random thoughts:
- At some point during the broadcast, Taylor Twellman talked about how having Ike Opara in central defense freed Minnesota to take more chances in the attack. In a pinch, they know they can look behind themselves and think, “Ike’s got this.” And he usually does. I’d argue that Portland gets the same security out of Larrys Mabiala. They’re just a more comfortable team with him out there and, hell yes, I think he should be team captain. When he’s healthy.
- I’ve heard Brian Fernandez is unusually fast (also, first time I’ve mentioned him, which feels significant), and I’ve hear Andy Polo is exceptionally fast. As to both claims, even if I accede the ground, does it matter? Fernandez has made an impact 12 times this season (even when it didn’t matter), while Polo is…factually, nowhere. He falls short on attacking stats, he falls farther short on the eye-test, and, while I know he’s who the Timbers have right now and that Valeri, Blanco, or Chara(?) needs a rest, Polo doesn’t really deliver anything and, at age 24, he really should be at this point.
Back to speed, though, the issue isn’t that neither Fernandez nor Polo look league-elite in that category, it’s the blunter reality that Blanco has league-average speed, while Valeri does not, and that’s its on can of worms. In sum, neither of the Timbers’ key players feel capable of regularly beating a player off the dribble anymore (yeah, I know; hence, "regularly"), or even to a ball played into space. Is it possible that every other team in MLS has already figured that out and adjusted accordingly? If so, next year is gonna be all kinds of hell.
When all’s said and done, the Timbers look like they can draw anyone, and beat no one. That holds even more true as long as Mabiala is out there. When he’s not, they can lose to anyone. With that, I think I’ve described the Timbers level heading down the 2019 home-stretch. Here’s to hoping the next game goes better.
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