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| I'm guessing it wasn't as obnoxious, but who knows? |
With FC Cincinnati posting another scoreless draw, I decided to do a little spelunking into what something like that looks like on the numbers side. Over the past five games - and this counts Wednesday night’s double-donuts result hosting Chicago - Cincy posted a total of 43 shots, with just 13 on frame. They hit their highwater mark against the Portland Timbers down in Orlando - twelve shots, five on goal - and their lowest against Columbus Crew SC, when they fired five shots, two of them on goal. Watching all those minutes has been...meds?
My much-abused memory tells me they attacked better than usual against Chicago last Wednesday night, forcing three big saves out of the Fire’s Robert “Mrs.” Shuttleworth, with Jurgen Locadia’s standing out as the nearest miss of the bunch. (There’s no select highlight for the shot Siem de Jong wailed over the crossbar, but I count that as Cincinnati’s most tactically-replicable chance created in the run of play.) According to the box score, they managed eight shots in all against Chicago, with three on frame, numbers that put them just under their five-game average for shots (8.6) and just over their five-game average for shots on goal (2.6).
While it’s no state secret that Cincinnati doesn’t create much for offense, those numbers are some combination of manifest and ever-so-slightly-fucking depressing. Off-season renovations to the roster made some kind of learning curve inevitable, but those numbers leave an obvious question hanging in the air: how does this get better?
To continue on a high note, I was delighted to see Cincy come and get after the visitors from Chicago - that goes double given the maddeningly passive approach they took when they visited Chicago (since I checked, they posted eight shots, just one on goal in that one). And, maybe had Maikel van de Werff nodded home Haris Medunjanin’s beautiful set piece (see above for link, first one; also, what the hell were the Fire defenders thinking on that one?), that would have forced Chicago to open up a little bit more…on the evidence above, however, I don’t have much faith that they would…
…also of note, Cincinnati has scored just one goal over the past five games and that was back in Orlando…which I miss in this weird way I can’t quite explain…maybe the “bubble energy” better matched the ambient, brittle weirdness of 2020, but who knows?
Still, Cincy played a robust, enterprising half, pushing the line of confrontation higher than they have for a few games. They didn’t let the Fire’s key players - Gaston Jimenez and Alvaro Medran - pick them apart the way they did in Chicago. They might fired as many shots than Chicago overall, but they arguably created the game’s higher-percentage chances…not that that mattered.
The fact that the Fire very nearly bobbled a ball into the corner in one moment, and had what was a fairly tidy goal called back for a hand ball (fwiw, I really dig what I’m seeing out of Chicago’s Elliott Collier) offers a study in the thin margins that FC Cincinnati continues to play on - and will continue to play on until they can reliably generate some goddamn offense. At time of writing, they’re tied for the second-fewest goals scored in Major League Soccer - thanks for getting under, Nashville! (and, I see you Inter Miami CF) - with just six goals in nine games, a 0.666666667 goals-for average. I don’t want to make too much of that number - four teams have scored just seven goals, for one, while Chicago’s scored only eight - but it does point at the elephant in the room.
Something else worth noting: Chicago is not a good team. They’re below Cincy, fer Crissakes, even if it’s just by a point. And while the Eastern Conference has a fairly stout middle section - e.g., they're three points out of sixth place, and with four teams less than two points above them - I don’t see Cincinnati shaking up a hot streak any time soon. Nothing over the past five games points toward progress; at most, this draw returned them to their better days in Orlando - i.e., the games where they shut down the opposition and put away their spare chances. That’s the future too, near as I can tell: endless games of watching Cincinnati block, block, and block, and hope to land the KO in their demonstrably rare moments of grace.
And…yep, that’s all the shitting I’ve got to do. Again, the team is also demonstrably better than its 2019 edition and some players are carving out useful roles in the team. It’s simpler for the back four-to-six (to name them, Mathieu “De-Plane, De-Plane” “DePlanh-YUH” DePlagne, Kendall Waston, van der Werff, and…mostly Andrew Gutman, but maybe it’ll be Greg Garza again (and how much does that matter?), and with Tom Pettersson as a serviceable alternate for centerback. The odd blow-outs aside (e.g., Columbus, first game in Orlando and recently against Chicago), the back-line + Przemyslaw Tyton has been competitive in 2020 - e.g., they’re in the right side of average on goals allowed at 12, if only just, but they’re on the right side of it all the same. And that’s with seven of those 12 goals coming over just two games. So, yes and again, the defense is fine.
The question, then, is what to do with…or about…just…everything in front of it. Also, rather than move on and pretend I didn’t think it, yes, I do wonder how FC Cincy’s stout defense follows from compacted defensive lines. To flip the question to the right side, how much freedom does that defense afford the team in front of it?
To finally get back to the game (sorry, stepped away, watched Holey Moley, ate…something), I liked Cincinnati’s defensive posture on Wednesday more than I cared about the defensive shape (which, again, is fine). Another massive positive has been Frank Amaya running around the field like a rabid terrier. I might still be dubious on him as a midfield back-stop, but he’s the rare player who flipped the sophomore slump completely and his work has been all over whatever successes Cincinnati have had in 2020. And that thought has been parked at the back of my mind for the past couple weeks…
I’ve never watched Kamohelo Mokotjo play and I won’t know what his game looks like until I see him. I do, however, know what Amaya and Caleb Stanko look like; the same mostly goes for Allan Cruz, but I get the feeling Stam & Co. are tinkering with him right now, and I’m fitfully making sense of what de Jong brings to the team. Finally, Medunjanin is a special case, because I’ve seen him enough to have an opinion, but, I’m not sure where or how he fits with Cincinnati - and I feel like they don’t know either. Close observers will already have noted that I’ve named five players who are competing for two-three spots on the roster, substitution situations notwithstanding. More to the point, both de Jong and Mokotjo constitute real investments by Cincinnati, they had to find those guys and lure them to Cincinnati (no offense; I think Portland's a tough sell on the global market, even if it's an easier one), so…do they get two of those spots, if just to juice to return on investment? If so, what does that mean for Cruz, Amaya, Stanko, maybe even Medunjanin (say, this was a depressing read!).
And…I’m just noting this is more “State of the Union” than “what happened last Wednesday,” but I went this direction for the simple reason that what happened last Wednesday happened pretty much every game before that going all the way back to the two wins that got Cincinnati into the Magical World of Major League Soccer “post-season.” They’re making progress as a team, but turning the ship all the way around will lead to casualties.
Finally, for anyone wondering why I didn’t mention how to fix the attack, I really think that landing on a coherent midfield will fix that faster than anything else.
Oh, one more point: Joe Gyau has something and he’s definitely a useful player. For most of the first half, he found ways to get around Miguel Navarro and that’s a good thing. His crossing, though, was wild. I get the same thing from Adrien Regattin. For all his moments, he’s not dangerous game-to-game - Sporting Kansas City’s Johnny Russell strikes me as a decent analogy, and he’s not him - and that’s Cincinnati’s attack in a nutshell. It’s a work in progress, clearly, but to what extent is it waiting on parts that haven’t even been called in yet?
And…scene.
My much-abused memory tells me they attacked better than usual against Chicago last Wednesday night, forcing three big saves out of the Fire’s Robert “Mrs.” Shuttleworth, with Jurgen Locadia’s standing out as the nearest miss of the bunch. (There’s no select highlight for the shot Siem de Jong wailed over the crossbar, but I count that as Cincinnati’s most tactically-replicable chance created in the run of play.) According to the box score, they managed eight shots in all against Chicago, with three on frame, numbers that put them just under their five-game average for shots (8.6) and just over their five-game average for shots on goal (2.6).
While it’s no state secret that Cincinnati doesn’t create much for offense, those numbers are some combination of manifest and ever-so-slightly-fucking depressing. Off-season renovations to the roster made some kind of learning curve inevitable, but those numbers leave an obvious question hanging in the air: how does this get better?
To continue on a high note, I was delighted to see Cincy come and get after the visitors from Chicago - that goes double given the maddeningly passive approach they took when they visited Chicago (since I checked, they posted eight shots, just one on goal in that one). And, maybe had Maikel van de Werff nodded home Haris Medunjanin’s beautiful set piece (see above for link, first one; also, what the hell were the Fire defenders thinking on that one?), that would have forced Chicago to open up a little bit more…on the evidence above, however, I don’t have much faith that they would…
…also of note, Cincinnati has scored just one goal over the past five games and that was back in Orlando…which I miss in this weird way I can’t quite explain…maybe the “bubble energy” better matched the ambient, brittle weirdness of 2020, but who knows?
Still, Cincy played a robust, enterprising half, pushing the line of confrontation higher than they have for a few games. They didn’t let the Fire’s key players - Gaston Jimenez and Alvaro Medran - pick them apart the way they did in Chicago. They might fired as many shots than Chicago overall, but they arguably created the game’s higher-percentage chances…not that that mattered.
The fact that the Fire very nearly bobbled a ball into the corner in one moment, and had what was a fairly tidy goal called back for a hand ball (fwiw, I really dig what I’m seeing out of Chicago’s Elliott Collier) offers a study in the thin margins that FC Cincinnati continues to play on - and will continue to play on until they can reliably generate some goddamn offense. At time of writing, they’re tied for the second-fewest goals scored in Major League Soccer - thanks for getting under, Nashville! (and, I see you Inter Miami CF) - with just six goals in nine games, a 0.666666667 goals-for average. I don’t want to make too much of that number - four teams have scored just seven goals, for one, while Chicago’s scored only eight - but it does point at the elephant in the room.
Something else worth noting: Chicago is not a good team. They’re below Cincy, fer Crissakes, even if it’s just by a point. And while the Eastern Conference has a fairly stout middle section - e.g., they're three points out of sixth place, and with four teams less than two points above them - I don’t see Cincinnati shaking up a hot streak any time soon. Nothing over the past five games points toward progress; at most, this draw returned them to their better days in Orlando - i.e., the games where they shut down the opposition and put away their spare chances. That’s the future too, near as I can tell: endless games of watching Cincinnati block, block, and block, and hope to land the KO in their demonstrably rare moments of grace.
And…yep, that’s all the shitting I’ve got to do. Again, the team is also demonstrably better than its 2019 edition and some players are carving out useful roles in the team. It’s simpler for the back four-to-six (to name them, Mathieu “De-Plane, De-Plane” “DePlanh-YUH” DePlagne, Kendall Waston, van der Werff, and…mostly Andrew Gutman, but maybe it’ll be Greg Garza again (and how much does that matter?), and with Tom Pettersson as a serviceable alternate for centerback. The odd blow-outs aside (e.g., Columbus, first game in Orlando and recently against Chicago), the back-line + Przemyslaw Tyton has been competitive in 2020 - e.g., they’re in the right side of average on goals allowed at 12, if only just, but they’re on the right side of it all the same. And that’s with seven of those 12 goals coming over just two games. So, yes and again, the defense is fine.
The question, then, is what to do with…or about…just…everything in front of it. Also, rather than move on and pretend I didn’t think it, yes, I do wonder how FC Cincy’s stout defense follows from compacted defensive lines. To flip the question to the right side, how much freedom does that defense afford the team in front of it?
To finally get back to the game (sorry, stepped away, watched Holey Moley, ate…something), I liked Cincinnati’s defensive posture on Wednesday more than I cared about the defensive shape (which, again, is fine). Another massive positive has been Frank Amaya running around the field like a rabid terrier. I might still be dubious on him as a midfield back-stop, but he’s the rare player who flipped the sophomore slump completely and his work has been all over whatever successes Cincinnati have had in 2020. And that thought has been parked at the back of my mind for the past couple weeks…
I’ve never watched Kamohelo Mokotjo play and I won’t know what his game looks like until I see him. I do, however, know what Amaya and Caleb Stanko look like; the same mostly goes for Allan Cruz, but I get the feeling Stam & Co. are tinkering with him right now, and I’m fitfully making sense of what de Jong brings to the team. Finally, Medunjanin is a special case, because I’ve seen him enough to have an opinion, but, I’m not sure where or how he fits with Cincinnati - and I feel like they don’t know either. Close observers will already have noted that I’ve named five players who are competing for two-three spots on the roster, substitution situations notwithstanding. More to the point, both de Jong and Mokotjo constitute real investments by Cincinnati, they had to find those guys and lure them to Cincinnati (no offense; I think Portland's a tough sell on the global market, even if it's an easier one), so…do they get two of those spots, if just to juice to return on investment? If so, what does that mean for Cruz, Amaya, Stanko, maybe even Medunjanin (say, this was a depressing read!).
And…I’m just noting this is more “State of the Union” than “what happened last Wednesday,” but I went this direction for the simple reason that what happened last Wednesday happened pretty much every game before that going all the way back to the two wins that got Cincinnati into the Magical World of Major League Soccer “post-season.” They’re making progress as a team, but turning the ship all the way around will lead to casualties.
Finally, for anyone wondering why I didn’t mention how to fix the attack, I really think that landing on a coherent midfield will fix that faster than anything else.
Oh, one more point: Joe Gyau has something and he’s definitely a useful player. For most of the first half, he found ways to get around Miguel Navarro and that’s a good thing. His crossing, though, was wild. I get the same thing from Adrien Regattin. For all his moments, he’s not dangerous game-to-game - Sporting Kansas City’s Johnny Russell strikes me as a decent analogy, and he’s not him - and that’s Cincinnati’s attack in a nutshell. It’s a work in progress, clearly, but to what extent is it waiting on parts that haven’t even been called in yet?
And…scene.
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