 |
| Are we sad glass?! |
“Nobody thought we’d have five goals in this half, but we do!”
- Max Bretos, at the end of the first half
Why wouldn’t people expect five goals? The Portland Timbers came into the game having given up 11 goals over their past four games; add the four goals they, by and large, handed Los Angeles FC in last night’s 4-2 loss, and the Timbers now average three goals against per game. Fun fact, LAFC let in three goals in three of their past five games (they did better against the San Jose Earthquakes, and now the Timbers). Fans should have expected goals, in other words, because both these teams have taken to bleeding them.
Concerns about the Timbers’ defense, which has officially reached “holy shit” levels of concern, have merged into worries about the team's future. That doesn’t make it unreasonable, however, to ask what the average Timbers fans expected out of a game with two vertebrae removed from Portland’s defensive scheme (e.g., Larrys Mabiala and Diego Chara) and one arm tied behind its back in the attack (aka, the wounded Sebastian Blanco). I can’t account for what caused it - extreme recency bias (aka, the win over Seattle)? a perfect balance and quantity of chemical encouragement? a wildly burning lust for any positive sensation? - but I somehow went into the game thinking that things would work out. And, for as long as Portland contained everything LAFC tried to do, and after they pulled them apart and ran riot through the openings for a beautiful and impressive team goal, the delusion held up very nicely, thanks!
Reality started knocking rather loudly, however, and shortly after the hydration break. I saw some chatter during the game about that stalling the Timbers’ momentum, but it seems just as likely that LAFC made some adjustments I didn’t notice (see, “balance and quantity of chemical encouragement”). Their first goal didn’t bother me overly - a set-piece, a lost mark, etc. - but, when LAFC returned the “pull ‘em apart and run riot” favor for the go-ahead goal, and then Portland's defenders shared a collective, simultaneous snooze on another set-piece that, frankly, sucked, the alarms that had been blaring before the win over Seattle blared anew. Fortunately, just when you started to wonder how bad things could get, Jeremy Ebobisse lobbed Jorge Villafana’s pin-point cross over LAFC ‘keeper Pablo Sisniega on the last play of the first half.
After the half, what had looked like a runaway train barreling toward Portland became a normal soccer game. The Timbers had at least three great chances to draw level - Dario Zuparic’s header that Eddie Segura toed away from danger and Diego Valeri’s free kick off the post stand out - and I know some of those positives wandered out of my mind between last night and sitting down the write this thing. And, yeah, yeah, LAFC scored another one at the death, but I’m only going to worry about that if a shit goal differential keeps the Timbers out of 2020’s janky post-season. Even then, I’d only get pissy if they hit the playoffs looking like they’re going somewhere. I’ll brook none of that backing in bullshit…
The question is, what to make out of…just all of it. After some digestive thought (urp!), I can spin what happened a couple ways:
Glass Half-Full: The Timbers came damned close to regrouping from a major meltdown to draw a game on the road against a very talented team (if one that’s going through some shit), and with three key starters missing. The numbers support that theory as well as the highlights do.
Glass Half-Empty: A professional soccer team cannot survive averaging three goals allowed per game. They beat even that high average last night and on the back of some staggering, collective breakdowns.
The question is how to split the difference between those two arguments. To give an amateur opinion, the “half-empty” spin strikes me as closer to reality. Full credit to Portland’s attacking players for fighting to the end and making a game out of what could have been a debacle, but to stick with (and strain) the “glass” metaphor, think of every goal the team gives up as draining some of whatever’s in the glass (e.g., sweet, sweet beer). They’ll never get to a full glass, especially when they pour out three goals’ worth in four games out of five. keep letting them in and you’ll never get to a full glass.
That’s the big picture, but last night served up a second question - specifically, the state of the transition to life after Blanco and the two Diegos (and, while we’re on the subject, Mabiala). To take the obvious person out of what can be a complicated discussion - and how the hell haven’t I named him yet? - Eryk Williamson looks ready, willing and able to start in Major League Soccer and to do very, very well in a place where Chara will one day leave vacant. And he scores goals to boot…real beauties too.
So, what about the rest of them? With one exception, I’ll confine my comments to players who started or subbed in last night. And I’ll discuss in order of comparative urgency.
Marvin Loria: He had some better moments last night - specifically, he battled harder for the ball - but he’s got some goddamn big shoes to fill. It’s unreasonable to expect that some dude chilling on your bench will replace a starter in MVP-level form (e.g., Blanco’s), but I’d feel a lot better of Loria presented as somewhere closer than halfway there. Moreover, the need to manage Valeri’s minutes means that Loria’s future is now.
Yimmi Chara (/Andy Polo): Yimmi’s ongoing struggle with finding his feet is what makes the above statement about Loria’s future a live reality. Just about any new players comes with some period of adjustment baked into expectations and signing as a DP doesn’t change that, even as it should shorten that period. Sadly, Yimmi hasn’t given me a moment to remember (as proved by the fact I don’t remember it if he had one). Bottom line: either Yimmi or Loria needs to get something going (or Polo, hence his inclusion), or the Timbers will have to come up with some other arrangement to recover as much of Blanco’s output as possible.
Cristhian Paredes: After a promising 2019, he’s taken a step back, neither covering the space nor corralling attacking players all that well; his passing was bad to sloppy last night as well, so he turned in a real groaner. Sometimes a player needs more time on the field to regain confidence, but I don’t think the Timbers can afford to wait out Paredes, not this short season anyway. Fortunately, Chara was just suspended for last night’s debac…game and, so long as he stays healthy, there’s no further need to stress-test the Timbers’ midfield outside of spelling the regular starters now and then.
Julio Cascante: I used to rate him decently - and I’d argue the team could do quite a bit worse than Cascante - but he’s played himself to a solid 4th in my CB depth chart. Without questioning his selection for last night’s game too hard, I would have started Bill Tuiloma - especially with Zuparic. Speaking of…
Dario Zuparic: He’s a shaky second in my personal CB depth chart and, like a good piece of salmon, what you pair him with matters quite a bit.
Felipe Mora: I like him, think he’s useful, and I rate his hold up play fairly highly given that he’s not the biggest fella, but he also strikes me as a forward who needs service and his speed falls several steps short of lightning. Still, it’s not like I can say he hasn’t won any games for Portland…
Jaroslaw Niezgoda: He looks really good, as in the extent that I don’t know why he starts (related: I have not looked into this). His feet are strong, the soccer IQ is there, and he showed off his wheels when he almost rounded (think it was) Dejan Jakovic in or around second half stoppage.
I’ve got some thoughts on the dueling fullbacks on either side - e.g., Pablo Bonilla v. Chris Duvall and Jorge Villafana v. Marco Farfan - but last night’s result muddied up my thinking more than a little, so I’ll park that till I have more data with which to work.
To sum up the rest, I’m happy with the options at forward. Given the recent defensive record, the only word I can use to describe my thinking on Portland’s centerbacks is "complacent." To rephrase that as a question, how can I “rate” the three centerbacks under Mabiala in the same post that I acknowledge that the defense is a shit-show? One answer is that I feel like their problems originate further up the field. The investigation and theorizing on that will continue, but it’s not good now, obviously, and here’s to hoping that Gio & Co. can get it sorted out without withdrawing the Portland into a bunker. I don't want to watch that shit, if nothing else.
And that’s it. The next one’s Wednesday. I have no damn idea what they’ll do with Valeri - in fact, I kind of which they held him for the San Jose game, but I get it - and that has me leaning heavily on the return of a rested Diego Chara to keep the spirits up.
- Max Bretos, at the end of the first half
Why wouldn’t people expect five goals? The Portland Timbers came into the game having given up 11 goals over their past four games; add the four goals they, by and large, handed Los Angeles FC in last night’s 4-2 loss, and the Timbers now average three goals against per game. Fun fact, LAFC let in three goals in three of their past five games (they did better against the San Jose Earthquakes, and now the Timbers). Fans should have expected goals, in other words, because both these teams have taken to bleeding them.
Concerns about the Timbers’ defense, which has officially reached “holy shit” levels of concern, have merged into worries about the team's future. That doesn’t make it unreasonable, however, to ask what the average Timbers fans expected out of a game with two vertebrae removed from Portland’s defensive scheme (e.g., Larrys Mabiala and Diego Chara) and one arm tied behind its back in the attack (aka, the wounded Sebastian Blanco). I can’t account for what caused it - extreme recency bias (aka, the win over Seattle)? a perfect balance and quantity of chemical encouragement? a wildly burning lust for any positive sensation? - but I somehow went into the game thinking that things would work out. And, for as long as Portland contained everything LAFC tried to do, and after they pulled them apart and ran riot through the openings for a beautiful and impressive team goal, the delusion held up very nicely, thanks!
Reality started knocking rather loudly, however, and shortly after the hydration break. I saw some chatter during the game about that stalling the Timbers’ momentum, but it seems just as likely that LAFC made some adjustments I didn’t notice (see, “balance and quantity of chemical encouragement”). Their first goal didn’t bother me overly - a set-piece, a lost mark, etc. - but, when LAFC returned the “pull ‘em apart and run riot” favor for the go-ahead goal, and then Portland's defenders shared a collective, simultaneous snooze on another set-piece that, frankly, sucked, the alarms that had been blaring before the win over Seattle blared anew. Fortunately, just when you started to wonder how bad things could get, Jeremy Ebobisse lobbed Jorge Villafana’s pin-point cross over LAFC ‘keeper Pablo Sisniega on the last play of the first half.
After the half, what had looked like a runaway train barreling toward Portland became a normal soccer game. The Timbers had at least three great chances to draw level - Dario Zuparic’s header that Eddie Segura toed away from danger and Diego Valeri’s free kick off the post stand out - and I know some of those positives wandered out of my mind between last night and sitting down the write this thing. And, yeah, yeah, LAFC scored another one at the death, but I’m only going to worry about that if a shit goal differential keeps the Timbers out of 2020’s janky post-season. Even then, I’d only get pissy if they hit the playoffs looking like they’re going somewhere. I’ll brook none of that backing in bullshit…
The question is, what to make out of…just all of it. After some digestive thought (urp!), I can spin what happened a couple ways:
Glass Half-Full: The Timbers came damned close to regrouping from a major meltdown to draw a game on the road against a very talented team (if one that’s going through some shit), and with three key starters missing. The numbers support that theory as well as the highlights do.
Glass Half-Empty: A professional soccer team cannot survive averaging three goals allowed per game. They beat even that high average last night and on the back of some staggering, collective breakdowns.
The question is how to split the difference between those two arguments. To give an amateur opinion, the “half-empty” spin strikes me as closer to reality. Full credit to Portland’s attacking players for fighting to the end and making a game out of what could have been a debacle, but to stick with (and strain) the “glass” metaphor, think of every goal the team gives up as draining some of whatever’s in the glass (e.g., sweet, sweet beer). They’ll never get to a full glass, especially when they pour out three goals’ worth in four games out of five. keep letting them in and you’ll never get to a full glass.
That’s the big picture, but last night served up a second question - specifically, the state of the transition to life after Blanco and the two Diegos (and, while we’re on the subject, Mabiala). To take the obvious person out of what can be a complicated discussion - and how the hell haven’t I named him yet? - Eryk Williamson looks ready, willing and able to start in Major League Soccer and to do very, very well in a place where Chara will one day leave vacant. And he scores goals to boot…real beauties too.
So, what about the rest of them? With one exception, I’ll confine my comments to players who started or subbed in last night. And I’ll discuss in order of comparative urgency.
Marvin Loria: He had some better moments last night - specifically, he battled harder for the ball - but he’s got some goddamn big shoes to fill. It’s unreasonable to expect that some dude chilling on your bench will replace a starter in MVP-level form (e.g., Blanco’s), but I’d feel a lot better of Loria presented as somewhere closer than halfway there. Moreover, the need to manage Valeri’s minutes means that Loria’s future is now.
Yimmi Chara (/Andy Polo): Yimmi’s ongoing struggle with finding his feet is what makes the above statement about Loria’s future a live reality. Just about any new players comes with some period of adjustment baked into expectations and signing as a DP doesn’t change that, even as it should shorten that period. Sadly, Yimmi hasn’t given me a moment to remember (as proved by the fact I don’t remember it if he had one). Bottom line: either Yimmi or Loria needs to get something going (or Polo, hence his inclusion), or the Timbers will have to come up with some other arrangement to recover as much of Blanco’s output as possible.
Cristhian Paredes: After a promising 2019, he’s taken a step back, neither covering the space nor corralling attacking players all that well; his passing was bad to sloppy last night as well, so he turned in a real groaner. Sometimes a player needs more time on the field to regain confidence, but I don’t think the Timbers can afford to wait out Paredes, not this short season anyway. Fortunately, Chara was just suspended for last night’s debac…game and, so long as he stays healthy, there’s no further need to stress-test the Timbers’ midfield outside of spelling the regular starters now and then.
Julio Cascante: I used to rate him decently - and I’d argue the team could do quite a bit worse than Cascante - but he’s played himself to a solid 4th in my CB depth chart. Without questioning his selection for last night’s game too hard, I would have started Bill Tuiloma - especially with Zuparic. Speaking of…
Dario Zuparic: He’s a shaky second in my personal CB depth chart and, like a good piece of salmon, what you pair him with matters quite a bit.
Felipe Mora: I like him, think he’s useful, and I rate his hold up play fairly highly given that he’s not the biggest fella, but he also strikes me as a forward who needs service and his speed falls several steps short of lightning. Still, it’s not like I can say he hasn’t won any games for Portland…
Jaroslaw Niezgoda: He looks really good, as in the extent that I don’t know why he starts (related: I have not looked into this). His feet are strong, the soccer IQ is there, and he showed off his wheels when he almost rounded (think it was) Dejan Jakovic in or around second half stoppage.
I’ve got some thoughts on the dueling fullbacks on either side - e.g., Pablo Bonilla v. Chris Duvall and Jorge Villafana v. Marco Farfan - but last night’s result muddied up my thinking more than a little, so I’ll park that till I have more data with which to work.
To sum up the rest, I’m happy with the options at forward. Given the recent defensive record, the only word I can use to describe my thinking on Portland’s centerbacks is "complacent." To rephrase that as a question, how can I “rate” the three centerbacks under Mabiala in the same post that I acknowledge that the defense is a shit-show? One answer is that I feel like their problems originate further up the field. The investigation and theorizing on that will continue, but it’s not good now, obviously, and here’s to hoping that Gio & Co. can get it sorted out without withdrawing the Portland into a bunker. I don't want to watch that shit, if nothing else.
And that’s it. The next one’s Wednesday. I have no damn idea what they’ll do with Valeri - in fact, I kind of which they held him for the San Jose game, but I get it - and that has me leaning heavily on the return of a rested Diego Chara to keep the spirits up.
One question - what was our starting formation?
ReplyDelete4321
4232
442
343
Thoughts?
That's my weak spot. I kinda suck at formations. I feel good about the 4 at the back, even with Jorge pushing up often as he does. I don't recall much of Valeri defending, same with Mora...I saw Ebobisse in the mix here and there, but that hardly seemed like his primary mission...4-3-3? [This is where the shrugging emoji goes.]
ReplyDelete[shrug emoji reply]
DeleteIt's interesting how (IMO) many other MLS teams plan for a knowingly unbalanced team by first lathering on stout defensive-minded players and interlocking fields of defensive tactics. We just sign #9's and #10's and hope everyone behind them can figure the job out. Hey, at least they're not low scoring games!
ReplyDeleteAre we seeing a team that is the result of unknown failed signings last fall, or is this precisely the aggregation the coaching staff felt would get the job done in 2020? Yimmi (expensive as he is) seems like a late fill-in for somebody else.
And those other middle-of-the-pitch/defensive players that you covered? My cranky covid-fearful and smoke-cured brain eagerly awaits a post-season great culling.