FC Cincinnati 2020 Rambling Retrospective (on Foundations)

Ignore your eyes. This glass is fucking empty.

I’ve been struggling with what to think about FC Cincinnati’s 2020 season since it ended, never mind what to write about it. I had a fair sense of its high point - I’d call it the playoff-round loss to the Portland Timbers during the MLS Is Back Tournament in Orlando (covered in my patented over-written style here) - but the rest of the season felt like passing a gall stone (literally) bound and determined to not exit. Hope died both early and reasonably.

For as long as that was all I had to say about Cincy’s 2020, I couldn’t see the point in writing anything, because piling on. As most people know, it was a (briefly-) former FC Cincinnati player - Derrick Etienne, Jr. - who scored a tidy second goal in MLS Cup 2020. That one (unlikely) moment put something that had been visible all night in eye-catching italics: Etienne looked active and useful up to that point; he played defense, his passes connected, his runs had purpose, and he made at least a couple solid attacking decisions/actions and against Seattle’s demonstrably sturdy defense (as backed up by the numbers). He looked connected to the team and the game-plan, in other words. The same player looked lost or useless more often than not when he wore Orange and Blue, but one player having a good game could be anything - a fluke, for one- but that started the ball rolling. Slowly, obviously…

Someone asked me the other day, both out of the blue and when I had time to spare it some thought (toilet), whether I still follow the U.S. Men’s National Team. The answer started with “some” (for the record, I caught all of one game, parts of another, and I tracked the other two (the late blowouts) but that’s it) and ended on a jaded take on the next generation. Moreover, the odd highlight aside, I almost never see the up-‘n’-comers in Europe. A longer version: I see the individual talent and the teams they’re starting for, but how much do those clearly better teams raise those players’ games and vice versa? In other words, when all the weight of making the game-plan work falls on all those same individual talents, will they be World Cup-competitive, never mind World-Cup worthy? The rest of the thought ends with, I’ve seen the results for 2020, and this is nothing like the first time I’ve seen a bright future projected for the U.S. Men’s National Team based on objectively non-representative results - i.e., I’m giving more weight to the draw against Wales than I’ll ever give to a U.S. team kicking the shit out of El Salvador or a post-Golden Panama, c’mon, people, the 90s were fucking ages ago.

The idea that started with Etienne playing a big role in a final ended with a question: how much do FC Cincinnati’s seemingly defining struggles follow more from problems with the people/circumstances guiding the team than they come from the playing personnel? The players aren’t blameless by any means, but there’s something unusually dazed and confused about FC Cincy every time they take the field. I’ve followed a number of teams in a number of leagues since the 1990s, from the shittiest leagues they’d put on TV (the A-League!) to Europe’s finest leagues to the World Cup, and I’ve never followed a team that looks so…uncomfortable in every side of the game - and I watched the late-90s New England Revolution as if God was watching and cared as much.

Atlanta United FC 2-0 FC Cincinnati: Scrap It for Parts (and even that's hard)

Yessir, it's been that kind of year.

I hadn’t planned on writing about this game, but I had an hour to kill between games yesterday, so what the hell? Also, I’m barely writing about FC Cincinnati’s 0-2 road loss to Atlanta United FC so much as I’m writing about the season as a whole and state of things generally. Which makes sense because what was last night’s game but a 90-minute microcosm of the season and state of things as a whole?

Cincinnati went down one goal early - and under the weight of…was that just three attacking players for Atlanta? - something that’s proved fatal nearly every time it’s happened. That’s just what happens for any team that’s scored just five goals in sixteen games. That’s right: Cincinnati’s attack hasn’t even arrived at a point where I can start to use actual numbers when I write about them - e.g., it’s “five” instead of “5,” or, God forbid, “16” or, dare I orgasm mid-preamble by typing “30”?

Atlanta scored again, Cincinnati never did, the end. Point to anything in the box score - e.g., the Orange and Blue’s lopsided edge in possession and passing accuracy, their stockpile of passes, the fact they held the edge in every available attacking category - and I’ll point to the scoreboard. Cincinnati’s attackers gave Brad Guzan a little work to do, but, to get all existential about it, I can’t remember the last time I tuned into an FC Cincinnati game without expecting unbelievable, unrelenting tragedy. It’s not whether they’ll fail, but how long we’ll have to wait for it to become the familiar, sickening combination of both obvious and final. Atlanta did all concerned a solid by scoring their second by the 26th minute (and tough night for Kendall Waston). Anyone clear on why Jaap Stam swapped out Nick Hagglund, when central defense was working better than most things?

The only question left open for me in 2020 - that’s to say, yes, I think that FC Cincinnati 2020’s team will go down as the shittiest attacking team in MLS history (they have to score four goals to avoid that fate) - is which players the team holds onto going forward. I’ll tick through tonight’s starters and subs below - and, to be clear, this is an entirely ruthless and mercenary exercise, done without regard to how much turnover any given team can withstand, or even the realities of any player’s existing and legally binding contract, e.g., if Cincinnati’s contractually-bound to keep that player around, it is what it is. With that, here’s who I’d keep and who’d I’d cut bait on listed in the order they appear in the box score (don’t read into the order, basically):

FC Cincinnati 0-1 Sporting Kansas City: Here's to 2021 and 20 New Players, JFC

Left at Nippert Stadium yesterday.

The best thing I can about FC Cincinnati’s 0-1 home loss last night against Sporting Kansas City was that they at least made the Western Conference’s best look average. Don’t know about you, but I was hoping they’d take one last happy memory from Nippert Stadium…then again, they’d go against FC Cincy’s history in Major League Soccer, as it has been written…

…don’t worry, this won’t take much of your time. Certainly less than 90 agonizing minutes.

Say they managed to draw the game - or, given at least two clear-cut chances, say Siem de Jong tucked away his penalty kick (nope!), or Brandon Vazquez finished his late, elegant turn with something effective (nope!), say, God forbid (because it seems he has), FC Cincy put away both chances and won the game. Say they make the Fucked Up 2020 Playoffs (and that the beef jerky maker of your dreams sponsored it): do you really think this FC Cincinnati…mess would get even one step beyond the first round? Or, to come at it from a future hypothetical, what would FC Cincinnati have to do to erase the profound, even off-putting frustration of their second season in MLS?

The short answer, and a disturbingly real one: why bother? Looking back at FC Cincinnati’s 2020 is an exercise in counting wasted hours.

Bluntly, literally every attacking player Cincinnati signed going into the 2020 season failed to pan out. Last night, I saw a couple positive reads on Jurgen Locadia switching to play wide left and, sure, he found more room out there and he posted a competent shot on goal, but what might have been isn’t what happened; the fact remains that Locadia hasn’t returned on investment any better than Fanendo Adi, and at greater effort and expense. It’s not just that he scored just one goal in 13 starts (15 games played), but that the ball gets caught in the spokes more often than he kicks it out and in anything like a useful direction.

New York City FC 2-1 FC Cincinnati: 20 Happy MInutes and the Nature of Inevitability

Yes,  you can play that way, but...

Not many people would take a second glance at FC Cincinnati’s 1-2 loss to New York City FC. They’d file it away as expected and move on; if anything piqued his/her/their interest it would be the fact that Cincy scored a goal. (Not that record, motherfuckers! Not today!). The bird’s-eye-view isn’t wrong, but it’s not entirely right either. This thing’s hairy with nuance…have I mentioned how much I miss the routine of soaking up context by watching too many goddamn MLS in 15 highlights? Have I mentioned how much the pandemic murdered the logic of going through that particular motion?

To stare directly at the warts, yes, FC Cincinnati played a sloppy, madding opening…65 minutes, and “opening” and “65 minutes” should never go together. To frame the point around two emblematic moments, the first came when Alexander Ring made what felt like NYCFC’s 100th scything run straight up Cincinnati’s gut; Ring slipped to the outside when Kendall Waston lunged in, but, and this is very much to Waston’s credit (especially at 32) he got enough of his body in the way and eventually muscled Ring off the ball, which almost certainly would have ended in a goal. He managed to clear it…maybe to the top of the defensive third? The ball might have crossed over into NYCFC’s half in a particularly #blessed moment, but it didn’t stray much further upfield for most of the first half and too much of the second.

The real question became apparent only after Allan Cruz and (sure, why not?) Nick Hagglund came on at the 65th minute: why the hell did FC Cincinnati spend 65 minutes hanging from the edge of a goddamn cliff when, according to what happened after the 65th minute, it’s possible - and merely possible - they didn’t have to?

The second moment relates to the first, in that it expresses the flip-side of the same dynamic. On one of the rare occasions that the ball crossed the center stripe and into NYCFC’s half, Yuya Kubo bolted up the left side of the field with the ball at his feet; the literally only other Cincinnati player who joined him on the happy side of the center stripe was Jurgen Locadia, and he was all the way on the other side of the damn field. For the sake of argument, set aside whatever specific acts you think either of those players should or should not do in any given moment and focus on the deeper question how the hell two dudes split on opposite sides of entire goddamn half of a soccer field are supposed to beat four-to-six players defending that same space?

FC Cincinnati 0-0 Chicago Fire FC: 25% Game, 75% State of the Union

I'm guessing it wasn't as obnoxious, but who knows?

With FC Cincinnati posting another scoreless draw, I decided to do a little spelunking into what something like that looks like on the numbers side. Over the past five games - and this counts Wednesday night’s double-donuts result hosting Chicago - Cincy posted a total of 43 shots, with just 13 on frame. They hit their highwater mark against the Portland Timbers down in Orlando - twelve shots, five on goal - and their lowest against Columbus Crew SC, when they fired five shots, two of them on goal. Watching all those minutes has been...meds?

My much-abused memory tells me they attacked better than usual against Chicago last Wednesday night, forcing three big saves out of the Fire’s Robert “Mrs.” Shuttleworth, with Jurgen Locadia’s standing out as the nearest miss of the bunch. (There’s no select highlight for the shot Siem de Jong wailed over the crossbar, but I count that as Cincinnati’s most tactically-replicable chance created in the run of play.) According to the box score, they managed eight shots in all against Chicago, with three on frame, numbers that put them just under their five-game average for shots (8.6) and just over their five-game average for shots on goal (2.6).

While it’s no state secret that Cincinnati doesn’t create much for offense, those numbers are some combination of manifest and ever-so-slightly-fucking depressing. Off-season renovations to the roster made some kind of learning curve inevitable, but those numbers leave an obvious question hanging in the air: how does this get better?

To continue on a high note, I was delighted to see Cincy come and get after the visitors from Chicago - that goes double given the maddeningly passive approach they took when they visited Chicago (since I checked, they posted eight shots, just one on goal in that one). And, maybe had Maikel van de Werff nodded home Haris Medunjanin’s beautiful set piece (see above for link, first one; also, what the hell were the Fire defenders thinking on that one?), that would have forced Chicago to open up a little bit more…on the evidence above, however, I don’t have much faith that they would…

…also of note, Cincinnati has scored just one goal over the past five games and that was back in Orlando…which I miss in this weird way I can’t quite explain…maybe the “bubble energy” better matched the ambient, brittle weirdness of 2020, but who knows?

FC Cincinnati 0-0 Columbus Crew SC: MVPs and DPs...and Deserts

What is on the dark side of the dune?

Without polling data to support it, I’d imagine that what most FC Cincinnati fans want to see out of their time right now is signs of improvement and/or life. As I’ll argue below, those are related by distinct concepts.

First, has FC Cincy improved? Yes, without question. The team ended its inaugural 2019 Major League Soccer campaign eating bowls full of shit on both sides of the ball and, so far in this 2020, they’ve cut down on the number of bowls they’re downing by…oh, ‘round about 1/3. Mos of the improvement has come on the defensive side of the ball, even if the raw numbers torture the answer a little. FC Cincy has allowed 12 goals (this link will go stale Wednesday) over eight games so far during this exceedingly janky season. To compare that against their peers, the league-wide average is 9.9 goals allowed; Eastern Conference has allowed 8.9, while Western Conference teams as a whole have let 11.1 goals slip by on average. On the one hand, yes, Cincinnati is over the average no matter where you look. On the other, they let in seven of those 12 goals during just two games - the manual colon extraction against this same Columbus Crew SC down in Orlando, and…sometime last week, and inexplicably, against Chicago Fire FC. Yeah, yeah, it doesn’t count anywhere except in the analysis, but that means Cincy allowed just 5 goals over their other six games, for an 0.83 goals against average. Very good, in other words, and Bill & Ted levels of excellence so close after 2019’s “our goal is your goal” policy (can anyone translate that into Spanish? Think it’ll read better).

Fortunately(?), yesterday’s 0-0 draw versus Columbus followed that larger pattern. Better yet, keeping the Crew off the board left Cincy a permanent opening for taking either the lead, the game or both - something they had three verygoodchances to do (plus at least one more, if you count Joe Gyau’s follow-up under “very”). Better even than that, the defensive scheme Jaap Stam deployed got deeper and deeper inside each Columbus player’s head as the game (literally) wore on. The Crew didn’t have a chance I can recall outside a (decent) flurry early in the second half (a highlight). Their attacks broke down earlier as well as forced passes gave way to wayward ones and ideas on how to get from Point A and into Cincy’s goal dried up.