Monday, June 21, 2021

MLS Weakly, Week 8: Results Rankings/90% of the Narratives Hold

One of the metaphors.
After a weekend tossed by existential dread, I decided to continue with these league-wide wrap-ups. At the end of it all, the thing I decided I wanted to know most about the two teams I follow (again, that’s the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati) was the shape and size of what’s coming at them - and that means getting a reasonable handle on what’s going on around Major League Soccer.

Between the dread and the stupid-quick turn-around between Week 8 (my “MLS Weeks” will always end on Sundays), I got only a second-hand glance at the following games (links to match info are embedded in those scores, as they'll be throughout this post; c'mon, fact-check me):

Columbus Crew SC 2-0 Chicago Fire FC
DC United 1-0 Inter Miami CF
Los Angeles Galaxy 1-2 Seattle Sounders
Austin FC 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes

And I feel good about those choices, because: of course Columbus beat Chicago, who doesn’t; Miami is, by all accounts, fucking terrible, so how can that loss tell me anything about DC (even Matt Doyle’s weekly wrap confirmed DC played an uncharacteristic game); Austin is sputtering and San Jose is dying, next; all of which leaves LA’s home loss to Seattle as my only actual regret. For the purposes of the results rankings, just shuffle those four results to the bottom in the order suggested by those quick-hit notes.

I’ve listed the rest of Week 8’s results below in the order in which I think they bear noting - as always. Going into this weekend, I looked forward to all these games through three broad lenses: 1) of interest (as in, it looked like a good, potentially telling match-up); 2) make me care (i.e., one team or the other had to get my attention); and 3) obvious. And, in a new wrinkle, I included the pre-game note/question from my preview thread in each mini-review. Again (sigh!), everything written below is based on reviewing MLS-in-15 videos and giving the stats five minutes’ worth of attention; I call that my “Silver-Service Review,” and I bitch mightily when I want it but don’t get it (e.g., this week’s game of the week).

Only Columbus v. Chicago filed into that cabinet, so the rest fell into the other two. I’ve already noted two of the “make me care” games above - DC v Miami and Austin v San Jose - and they didn’t, but only one team in that group put in the work to make this angry coach/dad take notice: Real Salt Lake. The other game you’ll find damn close to the bottom, if not on it…like the losing team.

With that, here’s Week 8’s results, in the order they are bitchin’.

New York City FC 2-3 New England Revolution
Pre-Game Note: Good/big for whoever wins it.
After tales of a goalkeeper standing on his head, talk of the greatest shot-stopper in MLS history - and I’m not seeing a lot of push-back - for why the fresh, wet shit is there no MLS-in-15 video for the clear game of the goddamn week, MLS?! We get the what our corporatist monopoly of a league gives, so I’m left looking at the stats, weighing talk that NYCFC paced another game and posted the winning numbers, only to see they came out empty. Matt Turner is one hell of a goalkeeper, obviously, but the Revs possess the kind of shivving opportunist streak that can win a game out of very little - e.g., see Gustavo Bou’s finish for New England’s first. Keep an eye on both teams, but worry more about the Revs for now.

Red Bull New York 2-0 Nashville SC
Pre-Game Note: Good/big for whoever wins…and, yes, these are marginal teams. For now.
This had the usual sloppy, scrappy feel of a Red Bulls game, but they raised Nashville’s goals against by 33% in one game (right? they had six allowed before the game, ended on eight?), and that’s a positive for them. Nashville made their chances - including a wide-open look off a counter around the 60th minute that they should have put away, plus a Hani Mukhtar free-kick that went off the post - but they’re not a great test on the attacking side, so maybe hold the thought that Red Bull has figured out to cover a broken Aaron Long. Still, thus endeth both Nashville’s unbeaten streak and their knack for playing back into games and thus continueth the possibility RBNY might actually be relevant for the 2021 post-season rather than just providing a warm body as they did in 2020. If I had to flag one stat, it’d be the number of passes each team played and Nashville’s passing accuracy; that and the passing network map hints at how much Red Bull disrupted their play. Both teams came in with a breeze at their backs, but it’s blowing harder behind RBNY.

Portland Timbers 2-1 Sporting Kansas City
Pre-Game Note: Good/big for whoever wins…Portland just needed it more.
After literally limping through the first weeks of the 2021 season, Portland’ starting to recover its starting line-up: Sebastian Blanco made a late debut, but it was just as important to get Larrys Mabiala and Diego Chara back on the field. I have extended notes on this one - particularly from Portland’s perspective (last of its kind…pour one out) - but I credit their defense for getting them through - and that’s big, not least because this penciled in as a battle of shaky defenses. I expect SKC will be fine; what they did against Portland will beat most teams on the wrong side of middle in MLS, and that’s a playoff pace. At any rate, very happy for Portland. They still project as a handful if they can get whole and stay there.

Atlanta United FC 2-2 Philadelphia Union
Pre-Game Question: Can Atlanta roll with the big boys (in their conference)?
The short answer is…pending. Philly’s Jakob Glesnes’ last-gasp banger got a lot of copy, but that could have been a just universe applauding. Then again, the video and the box score tell somewhat different stories: the former says Philly peppered Brad Guzan’s goal (particularly in the first half) while the latter tips the game in Atlanta’s favor; I’m going to look to Guzan’s body language after keeping Atlanta in it over the first 30 minutes (or so) and give this one to Philly by decision. Atlanta scored one of their own - a nice cross from Brooks Lennon to Anton Walkes - but needed an own-goal from Kacper Przybylko to keep the score even. The game looked open, but that all that open space could have been an accordion-effect from dueling defend-and-counter postures for all I know. Philadelphia should be decently pleased with this one, while Atlanta should be punching their collective groins in fury after letting three points slip to one.

Real Salt Lake 3-1 Vancouver Whitecaps
Pre-Game Note: Make me care.
At first blush, this win looks as impressive as RSL holding at 6th in the standings and with a game in hand. The main caveat is that they’ve picked their points off of mostly middling teams, their home record hasn’t been stellar (2-1-2; beating SKC in Week 2 was baller, tho), and Vancouver is on a road trip over broken glass (e.g., four straight losses, two goals for, nine against). That said, everything I’ve seen and read argues the ‘Caps did themselves proud; even loose comments from the broadcast booth confirmed it (paraphrasing Brian Dunseth, “this laziness from RSL is gonna hurt ‘em”). The ‘Caps missed often as they shot, which negated that advantage (left back Javain Brown could have had two headers), and that’s how a team blows a decent xG advantage. Damir Kreliach, meanwhile, just keeps rolling - and give Albert Rusnak a nod for setting up Kreilach’s lovely opener. RSL might have something to prove, but Vancouver has a lot more.

Toronto FC 2-3 Orlando City SC
Pre-Game Question: Can Toronto get off the mat - especially against a good team?
Nope. Thanks to a midfield shape so porous that one could sift SUVs through it, one could argue TFC lost the game inside the first 10 minutes; fresh returnee, Quentin Westerberg, gave an assist on Orlando’s second goal with the kind of fresh dumbassery that loses a man a starting gig. To Toronto’s credit, and very much against Orlando’s reputation (2.0 per game in their last two; keep an eye on that), they came back to level the game inside the first half; the second goal was the bigger breakdown (Orlando had, like, 20 dudes in the area), but both Toronto goals came from openings deep in the channels, so maybe that’s a gap other teams should look for. The video made it look like Toronto fired a dozen shots in the first half alone (though their xG spiked late), but, seeing as they only ended with 15, and Orlando nearly matched them, the game just needed another moment to decide it. The Jozy Altidore noise aside, I’m still leaning toward a theory that TFC is too old (e.g., Michael Bradley and Omar Gonzalez) in too many places to compete. One last thing to note: Orlando’s passing map is pretty fascinating, what with the lines going to and from Junior Urso. He stood out, and not just for (rather easily) scoring the winner. Toronto is very bad right now, but they’ve also played the current-best in the East since Week 2.

FC Dallas 1-1 Minnesota United FC
Pre-Game Question: Can Dallas get off the mat?
I’m going to stick with no for now. Look, I can’t explain my obsession with Dallas this season - I usually save that for Colorado (just…don’t ask) - beyond confessing that…I need to know what’s going wrong (it was something I said, a jinx). ‘Keeper Jimmy Maurer definitely showed up for them - a foot, hand or arm in the wrong place and the Loons could have run up the score - and Ryan Hollingshead gets my pass of the week on Ricardo Pepi’s equalizer, but, if either team has cause to feel disappointment, it’s Minnesota. The video, the xG and Maurer’s damned busy day tells me they played the better game, but, y’know, a road point is a road point. On a related note, Emanuel Reynoso didn’t start; neither did Ethan Finlay or Ramon Abila (who, I’ll just admit, I know nothing about). All in all, this result didn’t surprise me…Dallas, on the other hand, continues to. Oh, and Franco Jara hasn’t contributed much beyond serving as a cautionary tale for any fan who gets too wrapped up in a flashy new DP signing. They can set you up for gut-punch-level disappointment. Trust me, I follow Cincinnati…

Los Angeles FC 1-1 Houston Dynamo
Pre-Game Question: Can LAFC get off the mat?
Seeing that this was them hosting Houston, that’s a no. On the evidence, this was Houston hanging on the edge of a cliff and getting a leg over the ledge and hauling themselves up (to a draw). LAFC had a fair number of chances to put away the game (15 shots, 5 on target), but, even with just about every stat but saves and clearances tilted in their favor, and quite a bit, MLS’s fading darlings drew yet another game. And so they continue to stall (that’s as in an airplane sputtering as opposed to loitering for time). The broadcast booth mentioned an issue with keeping the sheets clean and seeing Houston’s lone goal (and on three total shots) gets at why: LAFC had a least two clear chances to stop that and failed; moreover, Eddie Segura gave way the ball a couple minutes later and almost gave Maxi Urruti a go-ahead goal, and think about the headlines then. Again, I don’t expect Houston go anywhere in 2021, but roadblocks don’t move either. One final note: LAFC brought in Bryce Duke to replace Mark-Anthony Kaye; despite being a third of Kaye’s side, Duke looked pretty damn sharp. Just something to file away…

FC Cincinnati 0-2 Colorado Rapids
Pre-Game Note: Make me care, which, here, means Cincinnati, because Colorado keeps on truckin'.
And…they didn’t. I gave this one a long, pained note as well (see extended notes…again, sad), and I’d be defending how well Cincinnati played, how much they discombobulated Colorado between their two goals, and so on, but with Cincy….still (ssssiiiiggggghhhhhhhhhhhhh) on the bottom of the league, it’s hard to pretend any of that matters. Here’s to hoping they’ll benefit from weaker opposition. As for Colorado, they showed what a team can do with a combination of keeping one’s shit together and just enough talent. Related, if I hear someone talk about Cincinnati's "talent" one more time..."talent" does mean shit till it tap-dances on the right stage.

That’s it for this edition. I’m going to punt the stock-up/stock-down stuff till after Week 9 wraps up - of which, that post’ll probably have a different format what with all the double-headers. For what it’s worth, I’m hoping to be able to incorporate notes on some longer trends into the notes for that one, but we’ll see. All in all, Week was a pretty predictable week. Because I had most of the rest on the general and correct area of wait and see, most of it came out just about right. We’ll see what a crazy-busy Week 9 coughs up and go from there. It should be 10 games played for most teams by then, and that’s where your feet finally touch the ground…until form, injuries, and lift it off it again.

Till the next one…

No comments:

Post a Comment