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| Whatever's behind that tree must kick total ass! |
Because the content-makers at Major League Soccer HQ decided to discontinue the, frankly, fucking irreplaceable Form Guide, I made one of my own. (Yes, really.) With 10 games in the books for nearly every team in the league - the exceptions: FC Cincinnati, Real Salt Lake and the Colorado Rapids - and my homemade Form Guide for reference, I decided to skip the results rankings for this edition of the Weakly and to serve up of a “state of the league” thing instead. Which kind of sucks given that I’d already organized the results rankings for Week 9…c'est la vie, moving on.
I’m calling what’s below “Super Standings,” which are like the regular ol’ conference standings, only contextualized with details like results over the past 10 games and notes on strength of schedule; on that, I’m not going to type up the results and locale of every game played, but will cite examples that strike me as relevant. The basic idea is to interrogate the question of how every team in MLS is really doing. The last step is organizing the teams into three tiers:
Contending: teams that project as potential winners of MLS Cup or the Supporters’ Shield
Loitering: teams that project to make weight in the post-season, i.e., present, but non-competitive
The Presently-Irrelevant: a category that explains itself
It’ll make sense, honest.
I’m calling what’s below “Super Standings,” which are like the regular ol’ conference standings, only contextualized with details like results over the past 10 games and notes on strength of schedule; on that, I’m not going to type up the results and locale of every game played, but will cite examples that strike me as relevant. The basic idea is to interrogate the question of how every team in MLS is really doing. The last step is organizing the teams into three tiers:
Contending: teams that project as potential winners of MLS Cup or the Supporters’ Shield
Loitering: teams that project to make weight in the post-season, i.e., present, but non-competitive
The Presently-Irrelevant: a category that explains itself
It’ll make sense, honest.
CONTENDING
Seattle Sounders: 7-0-4 (4 0-3 home, 3-0-1 away), 20 gf, 7 ga
Last 10 Results: DWWWWDDWWD
Strength of Schedule: Hate all you want, it’s league average with a home-field tilt at worst.
Notes: They’re not blowing teams out any more - e.g., the 4-0 and 3-0 home wins against Minnesota and LA in Weeks 1 and 3, respectively - but being MLS’s only unbeaten, quality team has to mean something. As does being tied for the league’s best defense (with Orlando and Columbus, fwiw) and being second on goals: quite simply, the team to beat so far.
A Clarifying Result: I like the 2-1 away win over the Galaxy in (their) Week 9. Beating a good team at home sends a signal.
New England Revolution: 7-2-2 (5 0-0 home, 2-2-2 away), 18 gf, 13 ga
Last 10 Results: WWLDWWWWWL
Strength of Schedule: Just the low side of average and, yes, they just lost to Dallas, but still…
Notes: The Revolution gets pride of place for one, clear reason: prior to tonight (e.g., a freak, yet worth-exploring 1-2 road loss at Dallas), they won five straight in/under the following circumstances: v CLB, v RBNY, @ CIN, @ NYC, v RBNY. Those are some results…y’all, so I’m inclined to take that seriously…again, despite the loss to Dallas.
A Clarifying Result: I like the back-to-back 3-2 home wins against NYCFC on the road and Red Bull at home. Because I love teams that say, “fuck it, let’s just out-score them.” Having Carles Gil and weapons all around him, makes that easier.
Philadelphia Union: 5-2-4 (5-0-2 home, 2-3-0 away), 15 gf, 10 ga
Last 10 Results: LLWDWWWDWD
Strength of Schedule: About 50/50, which is why they’re up here.
Notes: The Union dropped two games early (Weeks 2 & 3, against Miami and NYCFC, both at home), but that was during the CCL - which they’re still in - and they’ve picked up 18 of 24 points since. They drew New England during that time, as well as edging Red Bull and Columbus at home and kicking the crap out of Portland. Getting a result at any time and any place is the definition of a great season….not least because they’ll beat Miami next time.
A Clarifying Result: The 1-0 win over Columbus. Because grinds like that win a team titles.
Sporting Kansas City: 7-3-2 (5-0-2 home, 2-3-0 away), 22 gf, 15 ga
Last 10 Results: LWLWWWDLWW
Strength of Schedule: Pretty soft. Portland away and Orlando at home were their toughest…and they got just one point from those two.
Notes: They’ve got weapons - Alan Pulido and a seemingly rejuvenated Daniel Salloi, among others - a fairly balanced team and, whatever you (or I) think of their schedule, they’re posting the Ws (must stop watching Letterkenny). It’ll be interesting to see what happens when they square off against more teams in this tier.
A Clarifying Result: The 3-2 home win over Houston in Week 8, a nice short-hand for their attacking prowess and perhaps not so secret glass jaw.
Orlando City SC: 6-1-3 (3-0-2 home, 3-1-1 away), 18 gf, 7 ga
Last 10 Results: DDWDWWLWWW
Strength of Schedule: Average tilting toward soft.
Notes: They’ve got exactly one point against any team I rate - a home/road draws against NYCFC and SKC, respectively, are their most impressive results - and they’re swimming circles around the kiddie pool - e.g., recent wins over TFC and Miami on the road, plus the utter destruction of San Jose at home. There are two steps to the playoffs - 1) getting the results that send you there and, 2) getting your shit together by the time you go. Orlando is doing both so far.
A Clarifying Result: Any of their three away wins (the two named above, plus DC away).
Los Angeles Galaxy: 7-3-0 (4-1-0 home, 3-2-0 away), 17 gf, 15 ga
Last 10 Results: WWLWWLWLWW
Strength of Schedule: Soft-ish, as defined by playing San Jose twice and losing to Seattle the same number of times.
Notes: Chicharito is stealing the headlines - as one does when scoring at a rate of one goal/game - but Seattle is the only monster the Galaxy have faced - with Portland away standing in as a little sidekick monster - and they lost all three games. Beating Austin, San Jose (barely), at Week 2 Red Bulls at home - and edging Miami and Vancouver away - is good and necessary, which is why they’re hanging by a thread up here, but they’ve got to start killing monsters to stay here.
A Clarifying Result: I like the Week 1 win over Miami; they’re good enough to beat a bad team on the road, which is something.
New York City FC: 5-3-2 (3-2-1 home, 2-1-1 away), 18 gf, 11 ga
Last 10 Results: LWWDDLWLWW
Strength of Schedule: Low to middling, but with a twist
Notes: The most impressive thing I can say about NYCFC is that they got wins away at Philly and LAFC - no easy thing to do. They probably owe a lot of the positive goal differential to the 5-0 rout over Cincinnati in Week 2, but they have taken 9 of their last 15 points…also, four of those games came at home, and they lost to Columbus and New England, but also that. All in all, they’re sturdy enough to light things up with the right additions, while not being top-tier competitive. And so here they are.
A Clarifying Result: I like the 2-3 home loss to New England in Week 3, because playing a league-best team close away is where they are. And that’s very on-brand for NYCFC.
LOITERING
Minnesota United FC: 4-4-2 (3-2-0 home, 1-2-2 away), 10 gf, 12 ga
Last 10 Results: LLLLWWDDWW
Strength of Schedule: On the soft side. Think your college futon when you had the body to handle it.
Notes: Had they played a tougher schedule, Minnesota’s recent run could have carried them to Contending. But they got dismantled by the only powerhouse they’ve played (Seattle away, Week 1), and here are the teams they’ve beat: Vancouver, Dallas and Austin, all at home, then Portland away last night. That win last night - which I saw live, and Minnesota looked like the better team - is what gets them to the top of this section.
A Clarifying Result: Both honestly and painfully, I’m going with last night’s win in Portland.
Portland Timbers: 4-5-1 (3-2-0 home, 1-3-1 away), 13 gf, 15 ga
Last 10 Results: LWLLWWLWDL
Strength of Schedule: A solid 50/50, and yet here we are.
Notes: On the one hand, it’s hard to judge a team one knows and loves too well; on the other, I’m sort of a hardass. The Timbers took just four points from nine in a week they could have bumped to competitive with just two more points. The Timbers have won some impressive games - e.g., home wins against the Galaxy and SKC - but there’s also that negative goal differential and a freak blow-out in Week 3 (and during the CCL) away to Dallas. However it happens, Portland has to make potential real - and over the long-term (see, aging/injuries) - before I can lift them to Competing.
A Clarifying Result: The three away losses (at Dallas, Philly and Vancouver) hint at weaknesses in the plan (as did last night’s home loss to Minnesota).
New York Red Bull: 4-5-1 (4-1-0 home, 0-4-1 away), 14 gf, 12 ga
Last 10 Results: LLWWLLWWLD
Strength of Schedule: Among the toughest; 6/10th against teams I have as contenders.
Notes: They lost twice to New England - no shame in that - and, while they got most of their wins against middling teams - e.g., Chicago, Toronto, and Nashville (but that one looked impressive) - they beat Orlando at home as well. Red Bull might have a ways to go before contender, but they’re also probably the last team you want to sleep on. Also, that road record…
A Clarifying Result: Take your pick between 1-2 v SKC at home or 2-3 at the Galaxy. Red Bull is tricky…
Colorado Rapids: 5-3-1 (3-1-0 home, 2-2-1 away), 15 gf, 11 ga
Last 9 Results: DLWWWLWWL
Strength of Schedule: Telling. See below.
Notes: While the Rapids have posted some impressive-on-paper/later-context wins - e.g.., the 3-2 home win against Minnesota in Week 4 - they built that impressive record on a soft schedule (e.g., Dallas X 2, Cincinnati away, Vancouver and Houston at home). They’re stuck at loitering because they come up short against contenders…on the road, to be fair.
A Clarifying Result: Their 1-3 loss on the road to SKC is the case in point.
Real Salt Lake: 3-2-4 (2-1-3 at home, 1-1-1 away), 14 gf, 11 ga
Last 9 Results: WWLDDDWLD
Strength of Schedule: The soft side of average
Notes: When RSL beat both Minnesota and SKC to start the season, you could believe anything about them. The only team they’ve beat since then is Vancouver at home and most of the other results speak to a team that’s more rugged than successful. The biggest caveat comes with the fact they’ve played twice as many games at home as they have away…and they’re not playing MLS’s best in most of those - e.g., San Jose (L), Nashville (goal-less draw), Houston (draw). Unless Bobby Wood thoroughly renovates the tiny house that Damir Kreilach has built, I don’t see them ending anywhere higher than either side of the playoff line.
A Clarifying Result: I’m going with the home draws against Nashville and Houston.
Houston Dynamo: 3-3-5 (3-0-2 home, 0-3-3 away), 15 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: LDDWLWLDDD
Strength of Schedule: Depends on how you feel about LAFC. Who they’ve played twice.
Notes: With respect given to Maxi Urruti’s start to 2021 and arguably Tim Parker, when you build a team without any marquee/best-at-their-position players, you compete at about that level. Houston is good all over and, by most accounts I’ve heard, well-coached. But it takes a lot to overcome superior talent. That said, mind that home record - SKC was one team they beat.
A Clarifying Result: A toss-up between the home draw against Portland and the road draw away to RSL.
Los Angeles FC: 3-4-3 (3-1-2 home, 0-3-1 away), 12 gf, 12 ga
Last 10 Results: WDDLLWLDWL
Strength of Schedule: About 50/50; balanced, like their record
Notes: File them under all talk (from pundits) and too little action (from them). LAFC’s three wins came against Austin, Colorado and Dallas, all of them at home. And, as you can see, they’re winless away from home. Anytime you hear someone say something like “Carlos Vela is back,” make sure he didn’t “come back” against a dumpster fire like 2021 FC Dallas.
A Clarifying Result: Either the road loss to the Galaxy or the home draw against Houston. That could be where they are.
Nashville SC: 3-1-6 (3-0-4 home, 0-1-2 away), 13 gf, 11 ga
Last 10 Results: DDDWDWDLWD
Strength of Schedule: A home win against New England was their hardest game, and yet that’s Nashville’s record…
Notes: Apparently, the difference between Loitering and Presently Irrelevant comes between one W better than FC Cincy, a slightly better goal differential, and a minor run of form. I mean, this shit is close: they’ve taken 8 of the last 15 points on offer, which saw them beat Austin and Toronto at home - as one should - but also drawing Montreal at home this weekend. They’re definitely not scary, but Nashville is a couple results short of helpless.
A Clarifying Result: I like the 2-2 road draw at Atlanta: neither impressive nor something at which to sniff.
DC United: 4-6-1 (3-2-0 home, 1-4-1 away), 10 gf, 13 ga
Last 10 Results: WLLLWLLWWDL
Strength of Schedule: The high average of challenging (it’s complicated)
Notes: To anyone wondering how DC winds up here when I have Cincinnati hanging with the dregs, I have a couple arguments: sure, DC is winning easy games - e.g., Chicago at home and Miami home and away - but they are winning them. Take away lopsided early losses away to San Jose(!) and Columbus and you have a team losing games by one goal against some league-best sides (e.g,, Philly and Orlando). They’re in the most danger of slipping into the Depths of Pointlessness, but it’s starting to look like Hernan Losada might have them punching mid-table.
A Clarifying Result: Today’s away loss to NYCFC, honestly. So close, but yet so far.
THE PRESENTLY IRRELEVANT
Atlanta United FC: 2-2-6 (2-0-3 home, 0-2-3 away), 11 gf, 10 ga
Last 10 Results: DWLDWDDDLD
Strength of Schedule: Tougher than your average.
Notes: If this seems harsh, it should take just a little math to make sense of it: a team can’t make the playoffs collecting one point at a time. In Atlanta’s defense, they’ve played some heavies - e.g., Seattle and New England away (and they got a draw against Seattle); against that defense, they couldn’t take all three against Nashville and Red Bull New York at home, and that’s just something you have to do.
A Clarifying Result: Just named them: the home draws against Nashville and RBNY.
San Jose Earthquakes: 3-7-1 (2-4-0 at home, 1-3-1 away)
Last 10 Results: WWWLLLLDLL
Strength of Schedule: Tough, especially during that whole thing of getting one point from the last seven games.
Notes: Here’s who they played and where: v SEA, v POR v SKC, @ LAG, @ ATX, @ ORL, v LAG, aka, the toughest schedule I’ve seen for any team in MLS. It’s their record that strands them down here, so the question is how they do against the weaker/more discombobulated teams they’ll play before too long.
A Clarifying Result: I like the 1-3 losses at home against SKC and the Galaxy, both of which make the case that San Jose is simply bad in 2021.
FC Dallas: 2-4-4 (2 0-4 home, 0-4-0 away), 11 gf, 15 ga
Last 10 Results: DLWDLDLDLW
Strength of Schedule: By my count, solidly middling
Notes: Dallas can claim two of your better wins - e.g., pasting the Timbers in Week 3 and holding on against New England just a couple hours ago - they’re 0-4-4 outside of games that, in context look like flukes. If they have an issue, it’s a failure to turn one or two of their home draws against genuinely decent teams - e.g., Colorado, Houston, RSL and Minnesota - into wins. If/when they do that, Dallas becomes part of a different conversation.
A Clarifying Result: Going with all those home draws.
Club Foot de Montreal: 3-3-4 (1-1-2 at home, 2-2-2 away), 11 gf, 10 ga
Last 10 Results: WDDLWLLWDD
Strength of Schedule: Among the league’s softest - as in, one tough game (home against Columbus), with the rest at the low end of loitering or worse.
Notes: The best thing I can say about Montreal’s wins over Miami and Chicago is that they played them on the road; going the other way, they lost hosting Cincinnati. The best thing you can say about them is that they’re keeping games close; they drew the game against Columbus too, but they’re not covering home games against a team like DC (or Cincy, for that matter).
A Clarifying Result: The 1-0 win over Chicago in Week 9. And precisely because it doesn’t matter.
FC Cincinnati: 3-5-1 (0-3-0 home, 3-2-1 away), 9 gf, 17 ga
Last 9 Results: DLLLWLLWW
Strength of Schedule: About 50/50
Notes: Badly as I want to bump my second-favorite team in MLS into the lofty company of Loiterers, they’re punching weak/struggling teams (e.g., Toronto and Chicago) for their lunch money (aka, wins) and they’ll need to start getting points at home period.
A Clarifying Result: I’m going with the opening draw at Nashville on the grounds that they’ll rise to loitering when they can get a win on the road against a team at that level.
Toronto FC: 1-7-2 (1-2-1 home, 0-5-1 away), 12 gf, 20 ga
Last 10 Results: LDLWDLLLLL
Strength of Schedule: The only team that’s even close to Toronto for a shit schedule is San Jose…who have a better record
Notes: Toronto got four points out of this stretch - @ RBNY, v CLB, @ NYCFC, @ ORL, @ CLB, v ORL, @ NSH, v CIN - which yields them a tougher schedule and fewer points than San Jose. Had they not just lost to Cincinnati at “home” (and rather badly), that detail would lift them closer to the top, but, when your confidence is in the shitter, that’s where it is.
A Clarifying Result: The fighting losses (e.g., at Orlando, Columbus and Nashville) and the fighting away draw at NYCFC makes a case they may not be as weak as you’d think.
Vancouver Whitecaps: 2-6-2 (2-2-0 home, 0-4-2 away), 10 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: WDLWLLLLLD
Strength of Schedule: The hard side of average.
Notes: The ‘Caps hardest games include the following - v POR, v COL, @ MIN, @ SKC, @ RSL, v LAG, @ SEA - and they got four points from 21 in that stretch. And that probably tells you enough about them. Today’s draw away to Seattle (2-2!) actually needs to be a turning point for Vancouver to matter.
A Clarifying Result: I’m going with the 0-1 loss to Colorado at “home,” because that coulda been points. Also, generally cut MLS’s Canadian teams some slack, because they haven’t had a home-field advantage to speak of since 2019.
Chicago Fire: 1-7-2 (1-3-2 home, 0-4-0 away), 7 gf, 17 ga
Last 10 Results: DLLLLWLLLD
Strength of Schedule: Also irrelevant.
Notes: Fire fans ought to pray Week 10’s 3-3 home draw against the Union hints at a turn-around, because the alternative is Chicago staring down another season of eating shit - choice of words deliberate. Their lone win came at home against Miami. Bottom-line: when I comes to looking at results to discount by way of weak opposition, Chicago Fire FC comes to mind.
A Clarifying Result: I’m going with Wednesday’s home loss to FC Cincinnati. That’s a short kid dunking on you.
Seattle Sounders: 7-0-4 (4 0-3 home, 3-0-1 away), 20 gf, 7 ga
Last 10 Results: DWWWWDDWWD
Strength of Schedule: Hate all you want, it’s league average with a home-field tilt at worst.
Notes: They’re not blowing teams out any more - e.g., the 4-0 and 3-0 home wins against Minnesota and LA in Weeks 1 and 3, respectively - but being MLS’s only unbeaten, quality team has to mean something. As does being tied for the league’s best defense (with Orlando and Columbus, fwiw) and being second on goals: quite simply, the team to beat so far.
A Clarifying Result: I like the 2-1 away win over the Galaxy in (their) Week 9. Beating a good team at home sends a signal.
New England Revolution: 7-2-2 (5 0-0 home, 2-2-2 away), 18 gf, 13 ga
Last 10 Results: WWLDWWWWWL
Strength of Schedule: Just the low side of average and, yes, they just lost to Dallas, but still…
Notes: The Revolution gets pride of place for one, clear reason: prior to tonight (e.g., a freak, yet worth-exploring 1-2 road loss at Dallas), they won five straight in/under the following circumstances: v CLB, v RBNY, @ CIN, @ NYC, v RBNY. Those are some results…y’all, so I’m inclined to take that seriously…again, despite the loss to Dallas.
A Clarifying Result: I like the back-to-back 3-2 home wins against NYCFC on the road and Red Bull at home. Because I love teams that say, “fuck it, let’s just out-score them.” Having Carles Gil and weapons all around him, makes that easier.
Philadelphia Union: 5-2-4 (5-0-2 home, 2-3-0 away), 15 gf, 10 ga
Last 10 Results: LLWDWWWDWD
Strength of Schedule: About 50/50, which is why they’re up here.
Notes: The Union dropped two games early (Weeks 2 & 3, against Miami and NYCFC, both at home), but that was during the CCL - which they’re still in - and they’ve picked up 18 of 24 points since. They drew New England during that time, as well as edging Red Bull and Columbus at home and kicking the crap out of Portland. Getting a result at any time and any place is the definition of a great season….not least because they’ll beat Miami next time.
A Clarifying Result: The 1-0 win over Columbus. Because grinds like that win a team titles.
Sporting Kansas City: 7-3-2 (5-0-2 home, 2-3-0 away), 22 gf, 15 ga
Last 10 Results: LWLWWWDLWW
Strength of Schedule: Pretty soft. Portland away and Orlando at home were their toughest…and they got just one point from those two.
Notes: They’ve got weapons - Alan Pulido and a seemingly rejuvenated Daniel Salloi, among others - a fairly balanced team and, whatever you (or I) think of their schedule, they’re posting the Ws (must stop watching Letterkenny). It’ll be interesting to see what happens when they square off against more teams in this tier.
A Clarifying Result: The 3-2 home win over Houston in Week 8, a nice short-hand for their attacking prowess and perhaps not so secret glass jaw.
Orlando City SC: 6-1-3 (3-0-2 home, 3-1-1 away), 18 gf, 7 ga
Last 10 Results: DDWDWWLWWW
Strength of Schedule: Average tilting toward soft.
Notes: They’ve got exactly one point against any team I rate - a home/road draws against NYCFC and SKC, respectively, are their most impressive results - and they’re swimming circles around the kiddie pool - e.g., recent wins over TFC and Miami on the road, plus the utter destruction of San Jose at home. There are two steps to the playoffs - 1) getting the results that send you there and, 2) getting your shit together by the time you go. Orlando is doing both so far.
A Clarifying Result: Any of their three away wins (the two named above, plus DC away).
Los Angeles Galaxy: 7-3-0 (4-1-0 home, 3-2-0 away), 17 gf, 15 ga
Last 10 Results: WWLWWLWLWW
Strength of Schedule: Soft-ish, as defined by playing San Jose twice and losing to Seattle the same number of times.
Notes: Chicharito is stealing the headlines - as one does when scoring at a rate of one goal/game - but Seattle is the only monster the Galaxy have faced - with Portland away standing in as a little sidekick monster - and they lost all three games. Beating Austin, San Jose (barely), at Week 2 Red Bulls at home - and edging Miami and Vancouver away - is good and necessary, which is why they’re hanging by a thread up here, but they’ve got to start killing monsters to stay here.
A Clarifying Result: I like the Week 1 win over Miami; they’re good enough to beat a bad team on the road, which is something.
New York City FC: 5-3-2 (3-2-1 home, 2-1-1 away), 18 gf, 11 ga
Last 10 Results: LWWDDLWLWW
Strength of Schedule: Low to middling, but with a twist
Notes: The most impressive thing I can say about NYCFC is that they got wins away at Philly and LAFC - no easy thing to do. They probably owe a lot of the positive goal differential to the 5-0 rout over Cincinnati in Week 2, but they have taken 9 of their last 15 points…also, four of those games came at home, and they lost to Columbus and New England, but also that. All in all, they’re sturdy enough to light things up with the right additions, while not being top-tier competitive. And so here they are.
A Clarifying Result: I like the 2-3 home loss to New England in Week 3, because playing a league-best team close away is where they are. And that’s very on-brand for NYCFC.
LOITERING
Minnesota United FC: 4-4-2 (3-2-0 home, 1-2-2 away), 10 gf, 12 ga
Last 10 Results: LLLLWWDDWW
Strength of Schedule: On the soft side. Think your college futon when you had the body to handle it.
Notes: Had they played a tougher schedule, Minnesota’s recent run could have carried them to Contending. But they got dismantled by the only powerhouse they’ve played (Seattle away, Week 1), and here are the teams they’ve beat: Vancouver, Dallas and Austin, all at home, then Portland away last night. That win last night - which I saw live, and Minnesota looked like the better team - is what gets them to the top of this section.
A Clarifying Result: Both honestly and painfully, I’m going with last night’s win in Portland.
Portland Timbers: 4-5-1 (3-2-0 home, 1-3-1 away), 13 gf, 15 ga
Last 10 Results: LWLLWWLWDL
Strength of Schedule: A solid 50/50, and yet here we are.
Notes: On the one hand, it’s hard to judge a team one knows and loves too well; on the other, I’m sort of a hardass. The Timbers took just four points from nine in a week they could have bumped to competitive with just two more points. The Timbers have won some impressive games - e.g., home wins against the Galaxy and SKC - but there’s also that negative goal differential and a freak blow-out in Week 3 (and during the CCL) away to Dallas. However it happens, Portland has to make potential real - and over the long-term (see, aging/injuries) - before I can lift them to Competing.
A Clarifying Result: The three away losses (at Dallas, Philly and Vancouver) hint at weaknesses in the plan (as did last night’s home loss to Minnesota).
New York Red Bull: 4-5-1 (4-1-0 home, 0-4-1 away), 14 gf, 12 ga
Last 10 Results: LLWWLLWWLD
Strength of Schedule: Among the toughest; 6/10th against teams I have as contenders.
Notes: They lost twice to New England - no shame in that - and, while they got most of their wins against middling teams - e.g., Chicago, Toronto, and Nashville (but that one looked impressive) - they beat Orlando at home as well. Red Bull might have a ways to go before contender, but they’re also probably the last team you want to sleep on. Also, that road record…
A Clarifying Result: Take your pick between 1-2 v SKC at home or 2-3 at the Galaxy. Red Bull is tricky…
Colorado Rapids: 5-3-1 (3-1-0 home, 2-2-1 away), 15 gf, 11 ga
Last 9 Results: DLWWWLWWL
Strength of Schedule: Telling. See below.
Notes: While the Rapids have posted some impressive-on-paper/later-context wins - e.g.., the 3-2 home win against Minnesota in Week 4 - they built that impressive record on a soft schedule (e.g., Dallas X 2, Cincinnati away, Vancouver and Houston at home). They’re stuck at loitering because they come up short against contenders…on the road, to be fair.
A Clarifying Result: Their 1-3 loss on the road to SKC is the case in point.
Real Salt Lake: 3-2-4 (2-1-3 at home, 1-1-1 away), 14 gf, 11 ga
Last 9 Results: WWLDDDWLD
Strength of Schedule: The soft side of average
Notes: When RSL beat both Minnesota and SKC to start the season, you could believe anything about them. The only team they’ve beat since then is Vancouver at home and most of the other results speak to a team that’s more rugged than successful. The biggest caveat comes with the fact they’ve played twice as many games at home as they have away…and they’re not playing MLS’s best in most of those - e.g., San Jose (L), Nashville (goal-less draw), Houston (draw). Unless Bobby Wood thoroughly renovates the tiny house that Damir Kreilach has built, I don’t see them ending anywhere higher than either side of the playoff line.
A Clarifying Result: I’m going with the home draws against Nashville and Houston.
Houston Dynamo: 3-3-5 (3-0-2 home, 0-3-3 away), 15 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: LDDWLWLDDD
Strength of Schedule: Depends on how you feel about LAFC. Who they’ve played twice.
Notes: With respect given to Maxi Urruti’s start to 2021 and arguably Tim Parker, when you build a team without any marquee/best-at-their-position players, you compete at about that level. Houston is good all over and, by most accounts I’ve heard, well-coached. But it takes a lot to overcome superior talent. That said, mind that home record - SKC was one team they beat.
A Clarifying Result: A toss-up between the home draw against Portland and the road draw away to RSL.
Los Angeles FC: 3-4-3 (3-1-2 home, 0-3-1 away), 12 gf, 12 ga
Last 10 Results: WDDLLWLDWL
Strength of Schedule: About 50/50; balanced, like their record
Notes: File them under all talk (from pundits) and too little action (from them). LAFC’s three wins came against Austin, Colorado and Dallas, all of them at home. And, as you can see, they’re winless away from home. Anytime you hear someone say something like “Carlos Vela is back,” make sure he didn’t “come back” against a dumpster fire like 2021 FC Dallas.
A Clarifying Result: Either the road loss to the Galaxy or the home draw against Houston. That could be where they are.
Nashville SC: 3-1-6 (3-0-4 home, 0-1-2 away), 13 gf, 11 ga
Last 10 Results: DDDWDWDLWD
Strength of Schedule: A home win against New England was their hardest game, and yet that’s Nashville’s record…
Notes: Apparently, the difference between Loitering and Presently Irrelevant comes between one W better than FC Cincy, a slightly better goal differential, and a minor run of form. I mean, this shit is close: they’ve taken 8 of the last 15 points on offer, which saw them beat Austin and Toronto at home - as one should - but also drawing Montreal at home this weekend. They’re definitely not scary, but Nashville is a couple results short of helpless.
A Clarifying Result: I like the 2-2 road draw at Atlanta: neither impressive nor something at which to sniff.
DC United: 4-6-1 (3-2-0 home, 1-4-1 away), 10 gf, 13 ga
Last 10 Results: WLLLWLLWWDL
Strength of Schedule: The high average of challenging (it’s complicated)
Notes: To anyone wondering how DC winds up here when I have Cincinnati hanging with the dregs, I have a couple arguments: sure, DC is winning easy games - e.g., Chicago at home and Miami home and away - but they are winning them. Take away lopsided early losses away to San Jose(!) and Columbus and you have a team losing games by one goal against some league-best sides (e.g,, Philly and Orlando). They’re in the most danger of slipping into the Depths of Pointlessness, but it’s starting to look like Hernan Losada might have them punching mid-table.
A Clarifying Result: Today’s away loss to NYCFC, honestly. So close, but yet so far.
THE PRESENTLY IRRELEVANT
Atlanta United FC: 2-2-6 (2-0-3 home, 0-2-3 away), 11 gf, 10 ga
Last 10 Results: DWLDWDDDLD
Strength of Schedule: Tougher than your average.
Notes: If this seems harsh, it should take just a little math to make sense of it: a team can’t make the playoffs collecting one point at a time. In Atlanta’s defense, they’ve played some heavies - e.g., Seattle and New England away (and they got a draw against Seattle); against that defense, they couldn’t take all three against Nashville and Red Bull New York at home, and that’s just something you have to do.
A Clarifying Result: Just named them: the home draws against Nashville and RBNY.
San Jose Earthquakes: 3-7-1 (2-4-0 at home, 1-3-1 away)
Last 10 Results: WWWLLLLDLL
Strength of Schedule: Tough, especially during that whole thing of getting one point from the last seven games.
Notes: Here’s who they played and where: v SEA, v POR v SKC, @ LAG, @ ATX, @ ORL, v LAG, aka, the toughest schedule I’ve seen for any team in MLS. It’s their record that strands them down here, so the question is how they do against the weaker/more discombobulated teams they’ll play before too long.
A Clarifying Result: I like the 1-3 losses at home against SKC and the Galaxy, both of which make the case that San Jose is simply bad in 2021.
FC Dallas: 2-4-4 (2 0-4 home, 0-4-0 away), 11 gf, 15 ga
Last 10 Results: DLWDLDLDLW
Strength of Schedule: By my count, solidly middling
Notes: Dallas can claim two of your better wins - e.g., pasting the Timbers in Week 3 and holding on against New England just a couple hours ago - they’re 0-4-4 outside of games that, in context look like flukes. If they have an issue, it’s a failure to turn one or two of their home draws against genuinely decent teams - e.g., Colorado, Houston, RSL and Minnesota - into wins. If/when they do that, Dallas becomes part of a different conversation.
A Clarifying Result: Going with all those home draws.
Club Foot de Montreal: 3-3-4 (1-1-2 at home, 2-2-2 away), 11 gf, 10 ga
Last 10 Results: WDDLWLLWDD
Strength of Schedule: Among the league’s softest - as in, one tough game (home against Columbus), with the rest at the low end of loitering or worse.
Notes: The best thing I can say about Montreal’s wins over Miami and Chicago is that they played them on the road; going the other way, they lost hosting Cincinnati. The best thing you can say about them is that they’re keeping games close; they drew the game against Columbus too, but they’re not covering home games against a team like DC (or Cincy, for that matter).
A Clarifying Result: The 1-0 win over Chicago in Week 9. And precisely because it doesn’t matter.
FC Cincinnati: 3-5-1 (0-3-0 home, 3-2-1 away), 9 gf, 17 ga
Last 9 Results: DLLLWLLWW
Strength of Schedule: About 50/50
Notes: Badly as I want to bump my second-favorite team in MLS into the lofty company of Loiterers, they’re punching weak/struggling teams (e.g., Toronto and Chicago) for their lunch money (aka, wins) and they’ll need to start getting points at home period.
A Clarifying Result: I’m going with the opening draw at Nashville on the grounds that they’ll rise to loitering when they can get a win on the road against a team at that level.
Toronto FC: 1-7-2 (1-2-1 home, 0-5-1 away), 12 gf, 20 ga
Last 10 Results: LDLWDLLLLL
Strength of Schedule: The only team that’s even close to Toronto for a shit schedule is San Jose…who have a better record
Notes: Toronto got four points out of this stretch - @ RBNY, v CLB, @ NYCFC, @ ORL, @ CLB, v ORL, @ NSH, v CIN - which yields them a tougher schedule and fewer points than San Jose. Had they not just lost to Cincinnati at “home” (and rather badly), that detail would lift them closer to the top, but, when your confidence is in the shitter, that’s where it is.
A Clarifying Result: The fighting losses (e.g., at Orlando, Columbus and Nashville) and the fighting away draw at NYCFC makes a case they may not be as weak as you’d think.
Vancouver Whitecaps: 2-6-2 (2-2-0 home, 0-4-2 away), 10 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: WDLWLLLLLD
Strength of Schedule: The hard side of average.
Notes: The ‘Caps hardest games include the following - v POR, v COL, @ MIN, @ SKC, @ RSL, v LAG, @ SEA - and they got four points from 21 in that stretch. And that probably tells you enough about them. Today’s draw away to Seattle (2-2!) actually needs to be a turning point for Vancouver to matter.
A Clarifying Result: I’m going with the 0-1 loss to Colorado at “home,” because that coulda been points. Also, generally cut MLS’s Canadian teams some slack, because they haven’t had a home-field advantage to speak of since 2019.
Chicago Fire: 1-7-2 (1-3-2 home, 0-4-0 away), 7 gf, 17 ga
Last 10 Results: DLLLLWLLLD
Strength of Schedule: Also irrelevant.
Notes: Fire fans ought to pray Week 10’s 3-3 home draw against the Union hints at a turn-around, because the alternative is Chicago staring down another season of eating shit - choice of words deliberate. Their lone win came at home against Miami. Bottom-line: when I comes to looking at results to discount by way of weak opposition, Chicago Fire FC comes to mind.
A Clarifying Result: I’m going with Wednesday’s home loss to FC Cincinnati. That’s a short kid dunking on you.
Inter Miami CF: 2-6-2 (0-4-1 home, 2-2-1 away), 9 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: LWDDLWLLLL
Strength of Schedule: Soft, with a couple sharp shocks (e.g., at Philly and home against Orlando).
Notes: They have some decent results - e.g., away wins at Philly and Cincinnati, plus the draw away to Nashville - but they don’t have enough, and who knew someone else besides FC Cincy has yet to win at home in 2021? They keep their losses close overall, but they don’t look balanced, they’re arguably riding the MLS 2.0 formula (e.g., relying on aging stars) and I don’t see that getting them to even the foyer of the Promised Land.
A Clarifying Result: Getting owned by DC United stamps a team as “irrelevant” till further notice.
That’s both plenty and all there is. Till Week 20!
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