Saturday, July 31, 2021

Los Angeles Galaxy 4-1 Portland Timbers: A Little Like Bankruptcy

There were signs...
I might have told this story before, so I appreciate your patience. When my family moved west in the early mid-1980s, I landed on my first select team - to be clear, though, this was “select” in the context of Pullman, Washington, so not so select. This put me in contact with my first soccer coach who took both himself and the role seriously (more the former, honestly). At any rate, any time he got it in his head that his charges weren’t trying hard enough, he’d throw up his hands and stop watching. I was fine with that - which is about 40% of why my career as an athlete never went anywhere (a lack of natural ability accounts for the other 60%) - but my teammates would beg “Coach” to watch again.

Phil Scudderi (the elder), wherever you are, I finally feel you. I turned away from this turd around the 80th minute.

As for the Portland Timbers, things fell apart gradually and then all at once in a, frankly, embarrassing 1-4 loss at the Los Angeles Galaxy. I think that borrowed line is about bankruptcy, but do correct me if I'm wrong…

After a first half decent enough to make one think the game could go either way, holy shit, was that second half off-putting. Then again, the utter failure of the Timbers’ defense on that second goal - three LA players unmarked in the heart of the area? seriously? - gave a warning as unmistakable as a wall of “Do Not Enter” signs guarding a freeway off-ramp. Sadly, that fuck up looked like a brick wall with a force-field in front next to pure drunken chaos that led to the penalty Portland gave up for the third goal; I doubt any of the players could tell you there were in the LA area, never mind where they shouldn've been on the field. Add a fourth goal that shared all the bad habits of the first (ball-watching to the point of paralysis) and there’s your favorite home team on the wrong side of a blowout that could have run to half dozen plus to one. The xG tells the tale as well as anything…

The few positives for Portland came in the first half. They moved the ball pretty well - Diego Valeri, in particular, had some great touches and layoffs - and the Timbers found the chances I thought they would. Jeremy Ebobisse scored one on the least likely of those chances, but, from that point on, the worm had turned and grew into something beastly. Because I watched the game this morning, there goes any hope of blacking out that second half. Sheeeeeeee-iiiiittttttt.

Now, Five Thoughts
1) All the Failings, in a Tidy Package
What are the two most frustrating thing about the Timbers? My bingo card shows stupid defensive errors and aimless attacking moves. This game was a smorgasbord of both, the kind of outing that gets a guy wondering about the wheels coming off. On the one hand, having a coaching transition on top of a “generational” transition is…just a lot. Potentially. On the other, having a new coach guide a new generation doesn’t sound crazy.

2) When It Rains It Absolutely Shits
This is Portland’s third 1-4 loss of 2021, and the fourth time the defense has allowed three-plus goals - and they’ve got the -7 goal differential to prove it. The Timbers’ goals against numbers put them in FC Cincinnati and Chicago FC territory, a place no sensible person visits or, gods forbid, moves into. I missed the collapse against FC Dallas and can only hope it didn’t look like this, but this team needs something at the back: if not new personnel, they need to be organized differently, or at all.

3) wE GOt a WiNgER
The relates to the above, but it’s not quite what it looks like. As with old Soviet groceries, a team can’t always find the exact kind of player it needs; sometimes you sign a player for no better reason than he’s the only one on the shelf. I don’t have a lot of questions about why Portland signed Santiago Moreno - though the big one starts with acknowledging that not all promising young players pan out - but that shouldn’t paralyze Portland through the summer window, as it appears it might. Maybe the answer isn't always another Colombian winger? My actual question here is, does Portland have enough expendable value in the roster that they can, say, trade for some kind of upgrade in defense? Even if it’s defense writ large, can the front office give away someone we might not need for something they do? Say, an in-game organizer of the defense? About that....

4) Is There a Blake Bodily Fullback Experiment and What It Means
Does it look like the Timbers have given up on Bodily as a winger, and that they’re auditioning him as a fullback? Based on the early returns……sweet baby Jesus, the lunging. I know it’ll take some time before he stops defending like a winger, but…wow. The more depressing thing, he didn’t look much worse than Josecarlos Van Rankin did in that position.

Portland has a collection of players who lack any clear and visible upside - e.g., your Marvin Lorias, your Cristian Paredes’, your Renzo Zambranos, your Andy Polos. I’ve seen all those players have good games; but not enough of them; worse, not even one of them has show any sign of pushing any members of the aging generation either to the bench of retirement. At this point, I see most of them as warm bodies you put on the field hoping for the best, but expecting considerably less. To loop back to Thought No. 3, what does this say about expendable value on the roster? Back in the here and now...what is the path forward after the golden generation retires?

5) Decisions Made, in Full
I recall concerns about Jaroslaw Niezgoda’s ability to stay healthy when Portland signed him, and that gets to a reality about the 2021 team: a given player’s upside doesn’t amount to anything if he can’t stay on the field. Taking a chance on a talented but fragile player isn’t necessarily irrational, but it IS a gamble. And, for as long as Niezgoda stayed on the field, it was a brilliant gamble. I don’t know how many games he’s missed since - twenty or so? - but it looks less brilliant with every passing game. In isolation, it’s not a terrible decision; but when a team makes enough of ‘em, they can snowball into a problem.

For what it’s worth, I don’t see the Timbers season as doomed, but I’m also one hell of a lot more skeptical about them going anywhere interesting this season. And if the team doesn’t figure out what it wants to do next year, that skepticism turns to worry for future seasons. Hell, it may even rise to fretting.

5 comments:

  1. Colonel Kurtz: Are my methods unsound?
    Capt. Willard: I don't see any method at all, sir.

    You (correctly) examine the tactics and particular games that various Timbers players have that provided an actual match result we're agonizing over. My misfortune is to be obsessed with the Timber's master plan and the hidden assumptions that inform their outward decisions.

    I think that our team is hoping that few other teams are utilizing Moneyball theories like us. We're willing to go for the Niezgodas because we think our only hope for playing against big market teams is taking a fair number of high risk/high reward gambles each season. The bad news is that by now everybody in MLS is looking for those overlooked gems, on a global scale. Do we have an eye for low-cost journeymen from the bargain basements of Colombia and Argentina? - I guess. But other MLS teams favor other countries and leagues for recruiting. So MLS ends up offering matchups between your Portuguese, the other guy's central Europeans and my Argentines. It means that nothing is as important as scouting networks, and I have to assume, on average, the best teams have the best arrangements for sussing out the good players across many leagues.

    Gio seems to be all about the emotional state within the team. The Bradleys, Arenas and Porters appear more pragmatic and rational in assembling working teams.

    The Timbers are all in on the crap shoot mode where we suck until mid summer and then pray that it all comes roaring together in October. Is this the hard reality for small market teams? Perhaps, but we never aspire to anything else, and that's wearing.

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  2. That comment was both a journey and worth the time. The question of how a mid-market team in a...somewhat notable location (e.g., Portland) was an unspoken subtext in all this. And it does leave a lot of questions to answer. My hope is that the Timbers can figure out a way to land at least one of the kinds of trades Colorado has swung a few times over the past two seasons - i.e, actual internal trades for proven talent within MLS. My clammy fear is that they don't have enough value to make it happen - e.g., would Yimmi pique anyone's interest? Thanks for reading and adding value!

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  3. Sorry. A bit of an ADHD spew on my part. Your comment on Colorado addresses the fact that the Timbers' evaluative blind spot may be more about the players within our own league/national borders. Is it a lack of tradable value, or is it an intrinsic lack of interest? The opposite of not-invented-here syndrome?

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  4. Oh, no, compliment intended. And I have no idea what drives front office thinking. It just seems like a mind-set.

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  5. I think they tend to ignore USL when looking for talent too. I would prefer Keterrer as a backup to Ivacic but we seem to be dedicated to the international player instead.

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