Monday, July 5, 2021

MLS Weakly, Week 11: Results, Their Meaning (& Movie References)

Very near your high school, probably.
I waffled a bit deciding on a format for this edition of the Weakly - e.g., results rankings versus the context-driven Super Standings (referred to as "The Week 10 Recap" below) - but went back to results rankings for a couple reasons:

1) it offers more room for narrative, more time to capture detail; and

2) a string of results will always tell a body more than a scattered sampling of results, so I'll go back into The Week 10 Recap format after we've got another handful to poke around.

That said, all of what’s below build from The Week 10 Recap, a sort of “Where Are They Now”...only the “where” doesn’t imply losing track, like it does for famous people or high school. All in all, this turned out to be a compelling week. Every result down to the last two have some savory wrinkle that hints at spicy twists to come in the 2021 Major League Soccer season as we’ve collectively known it so far. That’s a good thing. Going the other way, some narratives have deepened - see the first two results for reference - but, overall, Week 11 threw its share of curveballs…and I'm hearing that last word in George Plimpton’s voice from Ken Burns’ Baseball documentary, for some damn reason.

As to format, I’ve organized all Week 11’s results in the order in which they either underscored or disrupted the sacred time-line (and guess what I'm watching more recently). I put an asterisk next to every game that got the Silver Service Review - e.g., a careful look at the MLS in 15 video (and I took notes!) and a respectable stare at the stats - nothing next to the games where I reviewed only the highlights and the stats, and I put “90” in parentheses after any game I sat all the way through (just one this weekend, with apologies to my Portland Timbers, but the bowling league calls when she does). In other programming notes, I’ve decided to push this feature to Tuesday nights; that's the only way I can get in all the Silver Service Reviews and do this up right (and also while still posting the music timeline histories that constitute the other half of my pointless, yet beloved obsessions). Oh, and I link to the MLS summary pages in each score below. Those things are pretty damn useful, honestly, no matter how tight they’ve been with the highlights since, like 2018. Finally, I included the category I assigned each game in my weekly preview thread - in this case, Big (e.g., big teams battling it out); Obvious (a superior team against its alleged inferior); and Make Me Care (two alleged inferiors battling over scraps). And away we go...

Los Angeles Galaxy 0-2 Sporting Kansas City (Big)
The biggest game/result of the week, and the reason I have to bump this feature to Tuesdays - i.e., this game of this import begs for Silver Service Review. On the one hand, SKC’s goals came late enough to raise questions as to whether this should register as a draw that failed versus a sign their star is shining a little brighter in 2021. As for the details (so far as I can gleam them), Tim Melia deserves many beers from his teammates for keeping them in the game in the first half, one that ultimately turned on a rare, late period of dominance by the visitors, some high pressure which lead to Johnny Russell’s first goal of 2021 - and don’t you love to see a team that positively radiates The Love? SKC has that right now and they’ve gone to the top of the West on the back of it. Given who they beat and where, how doesn’t matter so much - especially with how LA (apparently) piled on so much good and proper pressure. That’s three straight wins for SKC after a couple stumbles (e.g., home draw v Austin and a road loss to the Timbers); the Galaxy, meanwhile, continue to struggle against any team that doesn’t tilt in the wrong direction toward sucking.

DC United 7-1 Toronto FC (Make Me Care)*
If nothing else, this will live forever as game that read the writing on the wall for Chris Armas too loudly to be ignored. After six straight losses, and eight in 11 games, Toronto answered the second straight “Armas Out” call and quicker than last time. To show some generosity to the mortally wounded, this was closer to 4-1 or 5-1 than to the final, brutal score-line, but when you see that and two-way dominance in the numbers (e.g., more than 3X the shots plus a clear advantage in duels and tackles), questions about the fairness of the result waft gently and politely away. As noted in The Week 10 Recap, DC has played one of the league’s toughest schedules in this early season, which is what made this the kind of “will-they-or-won’t-they” match-up that answers some questions. DC did, and emphatically. Related, DC has some new-to-new-ish players in the mix - e.g., Nigel Robertha…maybe Andrien Perez, along with Ola Kamara (suddenly on five goals; good use of the body here) and Griffin Yow (scorer of the searingly painful 7th goal) off the bench - who, along with Andy Najar, could take them to interesting places. It’s too early for “whooping” sounds - e.g., DC is away to a Philadelphia Union team that needs to right itself next - and their 3-1-1 record over their past five games needs an asterisk or three due to who they’re beating (e.g., Toronto and Miami twice), but DC have been tough since Week 4.

Columbus Crew SC 2-2 New England Revolution (Big)*
New England’s Andrew Farrell fell with one of the weirdest own-goals I’ve ever seen, then rose when he combined with ‘keeper Matt Turner and colleague Henry Kessler to keep out a late Columbus flurry and hold onto one hard-fought point. Columbus needed the (again, weird) assist after going two goals down off of, no way to sugar-coat this, very bad defensive blunders. The attacking side held up for the Crew lead by Gyasi Zardes “doing the twist” to score Columbus’ first goal and coming close on another; they posted winning numbers overall (though the Revs won the xG battle), but without parlaying them into a win. The result looked fair to both teams, but, if you polled both teams about who feels better here, I’m confident the answers would skew in New England’s direction. In any case, New England’s remains atop of the East, while the Crew have rather quietly stalled at the back-end of a traffic jam on the wrong side of the Eastern playoff line courtesy of three winless results in a row (a loss at Philly, a draw at Austin, and this last draw). Talk about potential all you want: mid-table is mid-table.

Austin FC 4(?!)-1 Portland Timbers (of interest)*
My weekly bowling league (and the endless regional blackout) kept me from watching this game live, but my main takeaway from the Silver Service Review isn’t gentle for the ones I love: the Timbers fielded something very close to its starting defense set, all the way up to Diego Chara and Eryk Williamson lining up in front of it. Four goals blew past them just the same - some of them crazy, painfully easy - which marks the third time Portland’s defense has allowed three or more goals in 2021. The kicker: there is no calvary, i.e., I’ve heard nothing about defensive reinforcements. If this is the horse they’ll try to ride to some kind of silverware this season, bluntly, I’m not seeing it. The attack should improve when more bodies come back, and that will take some pressure off the defense, but I am and will remain concerned about Portland’s defense until I see a couple more clean sheets hanging on the clothesline. And, per the transitive property, I’m willing to give Austin credit for a big, happy win, but unwilling to declare an end to their scoring woes…for perspective, they scored as many goals against Portland as they had in their previous nine games.

Nashville SC 1-0 Philadelphia Union (Of Interest)
This would have got Silver Service review had MLS’s tech crew deigned to cut an MLS in 15 for it, but we work with what we’ve got. The big news here: Nashville scored first in a game where either team scored at all, which meant no need for a comeback, a rarity for them. I didn’t see a lot of chances for the Union no matter where I looked (either the highlights lie or Sergio Santos had their best), and Andrew Blake bailed out Nashville break-outs at least twice, but Philly has stopped getting the results that make you feel good about them - e.g., a road loss to Atlanta, a draw at Chicago and now this…another bad result on the road….which may prompt concern about their road form. Nashville, on the other hand, can be reasonably described as taking care of (routine) business.

Orlando City SC 1-2 Red Bulls New York (Big)*
I’m a big believer in form as a predictor for results, but this one points to one of those funky intangibles that effectively pours oil over the crystal ball: the way two given teams match up. Based on a two-game a sample, and with just five weeks between, them, Orlando doesn’t appear to have an answer for Red Bulls’ press. That didn’t show up in the numbers like it did several weeks ago, but my operating theory is that Red Bull walked away with the win because they made the better chances. If there’s a concern for Orlando, it comes from how easily Patryk Klimala and Fabio (Roberto Gomes Netto) sliced up the gut for the winner; if there’s joy for Red Bull, it comes with Cristian Casseres, Jr.’s silky finish. Orlando remains in a good spot, but it bears noting that they wrestled all six of their wins from struggling-to-middling teams. Going the other way, Red Bull has won three of its last five - and against decent teams (e.g., Orlando twice and Nashville once at home).

Real Salt Lake 0-1 Los Angeles FC (Of Interest)*
With both teams dancing on the playoff line, any actual result (e.g., a non-draw) would matter. The stats speak to a prettier game than 15 minutes’ worth of choppy video I would trade for a couple of things, but LAFC’s Jose Cifuentes scored off their one truly coherent attack, Eddie Segura hooked out a clear equalizer, and that made the difference in game that played at a slow, sweaty grind. Credit where it’s due, LAFC has navigated a tricky patch - e.g., v NYC, v HOU, v FCD, @ SKC, @ RSL - taking seven points from 15. Far from epic as that gets, this win got them on the right side of the playoff line and it’s just not a bad piece of business, no matter the margin. Also of note, RSL has one win since Week 2 and that was against Vancouver. They’ve dropped some stupid points, basically.

Minnesota United FC 2-2 San Jose Earthquakes (Obvious)*
With the ‘Quakes struggling as they have - and are - this game all but begged Minnesota for more momentum. Nope. The Loons found enough quality shots to win two games - to start the 2nd half, especially - but they needed Ramon Abila (who looked pretty smart ‘n’ bullish otherwise) to put back his own scuffed penalty kick to just to hold onto the one point. Both teams forced errors and capitalized on them - see San Jose’s opener for that - Minnesota’s Brent Kallman provided a scrappy answer to San Jose’s first, San Jose’s Benjamin Kikanovic squicked a weird equalizer over Tyler Miller for their answer to Minnesota’s first, etc. If I thought this changed either team’s fate - say, had San Jose won since Week 4 or if Minnesota wasn’t unbeaten from the same point - a result that throws me this much would have ranked higher…still, for the file. For both teams.

Colorado Rapids 1-1 Seattle Sounders FC (Of Interest)
This looked like the Rapids’ game to lose, which means the project of making The Dick a fortress continues. The main thing you need to know is that Michael Barrios answered Alex Roldan’s (fairly lucky) opener, and the Rapids generally presented as the team with the best shot at winning. About that, a win would have sent a louder signal. Still, “The Dick Fortress” bears watching, as does any (or further) sign of slippage from the (admittedly still unbeaten) Sounders. With Nashville and Minnesota, the Rapids just sort of keep plugging along. They’ve got something figured out, or enough. Till further notice, I guess. Seattle, meanwhile, has fallen off its turgid opening to the season. 2-0-4 over their last six ain’t great, not with home draws against Atlanta, Austin and Vancouver in the mix. Something else to watch…

Houston Dynamo FC 1-1 FC Cincinnati (Make Me Care) (90)
As kicked around in my extended notes on this game, Cincinnati rode out Houston’s pressure, which minimized punishable mistakes, which forced Houston to try to break down Cincy’s defense. Houston carved out two chances of reasonable quality, but otherwise failed. This leaves them languishing mightily - e.g., winless in five, with four straight draws. Failing to beat a team still finding its feet (e.g., FC Cincinnati) at home cuts against the argument that a tough run of games - e.g., @ SKC, @LAFC, v POR, and @RSL - caused all those draws. It’s either that or something a little more intriguing: Cincy has come closer to balance between defending competently and staying at least somewhat dangerous. Has Cincinnati found an escape from an existence as three easy points for all comers?

Chicago Fire FC 3-0 Atlanta United FC (Make Me Care)*
Had you just watched the video, you’d assume Chicago countered Atlanta to death - and the last two (and far prettier) goals (observe) definitely came from transition. The MLS in 15 hints that Atlanta started stronger, only to give way bit by bit as the Fire’s openings grew wider and their shooting more efficient. I heard good things about Alvaro Medran from the broadcast booth, but this was Ignacio Aliseda’s introduction to the league. For those not keeping track, Atlanta has stalled something awful, picking up just four points of the last 18 (if against strong opposition). With the Fire tinkering in a basement more than half the East has left, the feats either of these teams accomplish don’t matter in the real world. Bad as Chicago has been…huh, for quite a while, Atlanta’s sinking to meet them.

FC Dallas 2-2 Vancouver Whitecaps (oops….forgot)
Huh. I previewed every game except this one. Probably says something on its own. Anyhoo, and per a brief review, this game translated as a slap-fight in the basement, aka, something for the adults to ignore, more or less, but, two things: 1) Vancouver’s Maxime Crepeau played a great game (an argument in Dallas' favor), and 2) this goes down as another coulda, would, shoulda for Dallas, and how many do they get before we all rightly stop giving a shit? T-t-t-t-today, guys (heavy movie references in this one). Overall, though, this was 12th v 13th in the Western Conference, therefore only scintillating and/or visceral to the locals.

Club de Foot du Montreal 1-0 Inter Miami CF (Obvious)
Seeing Miami lose isn’t so odd - they’ve done it seven times in this young season, after all - but watching Montreal fire one reason after another showing why they will continue to lose drove the point home nicely. The stats say Miami fired three shots, but the highlights buried all but one; add that detail to their pitiable 0.3 xG and you get the feeling that the worst team of 2021 has already announced itself. Montreal have made its share of results, but they still look decisively middling overall. Two nowhere teams going nowhere...

If that feels like a grab-bag of details to you, you’re not alone (raising my hand over here), but, to pull a baker’s dozen of summary judgments out of the data:

Stock Up or on the High Side of Steady
Sporting Kansas City (high steady)
New England Revolution (high steady)
Nashville SC (stock up)
Red Bull New York (stock up)
FC Cincinnati (stock up)

Stock Down
Los Angeles Galaxy (dying v big teams)
Columbus Crew SC (head-scratching recent form)
Portland Timbers (wow, that's crappy defense!)
Real Salt Lake (for failing to take care of business)
Atlanta United FC (see above)

Watch-List (both good and bad)
DC United (good!)
Orlando City SC (when they play the good teams)
Philadelphia Union (bad.)
Los Angeles FC (good…maybe)
Houston Dynamo (trending bad)
Chicago Fire FC (good!)
Vancouver Whitecaps (good…maybe)
Seattle Sounders (for their last 6 games)

Same Ol’, Good or Bad
Toronto FC (disastrous, thanks!)
Austin FC (mid-table like they’re aiming for it)
San Jose Earthquakes (a win, the draw or two, the odd blowout, etc.)
Colorado Rapids (can I say The Dude abides?)
FC Dallas (attempting to drive in neutral, failing in general)
Inter Miami CF (present and future bottom-feeders)
Club de Foot du Montreal (forever loitering on either side of the playoff line)
New York City FC (good, quality work of late; people should be talking)
Minnesota United FC ('tis but a scratch...for now)

That’s it for this week, and I hope Week 12 feels a little smoother on the production side. I hope this mix of snapshots with some stories behind them helps what you see every week make a little more sense. Till the next one…

No comments:

Post a Comment