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| MLS, perhaps more than you think. But also less. |
The Super Standings return! In this post, I’m looking at nothing but results over the last ten games for every team in Major League Soccer and strength of opposition over the same. My dog-shit memory will pitch in with what it can and, after I throw it all together, we’ll see what I get.
I made some tweaks to the Week 10 version of this post (which I referenced, like, a lot less than I thought I would), most notably: I added a loose scale - and trust me when I say loose - for the strength of opposition, something I thought would give further context for those last 10 results (there, T = tough, M = middling, and E = easy). It’s a lot of blah, blah, blah, after that, so the last step is organizing the teams into three tiers:
Competitive: Could win a trophy or, failing that, reach the semi-final
Playoff-Bound: A good bet for MLS's (over-expansive) playoffs, but a bad bet for trophies
Watch-List: Teams who might graduate to the above, no matter how narrowly
The Presently-Irrelevant: Teams who, based on evidence and history, will not
Again, it’ll make sense, honest. If anything stood out, it was the fact that the league’s stronger teams all seemed to play generally weaker schedules than the weaker teams. Then again, it was those weaker teams that made the softer schedules for those stronger teams, so there’s still a lot of big fish eating smaller fish and those smaller fish dying. That’s only part of the narrative, though, and some of the trends I see have serious potential to up-end a narrative here and start a new narrative there. For instance, think of what might happen if MLS’s Canadian teams, nearly all of whom have something better than nothing going for them, get to move back north for actual home games (aka, the “Canadian Asterisk”)? Also, there will be typos, in the numbers, especially, so do double-check as needed. That’s just one factor explored below, even if it doesn’t apply to so much to the top-tier teams, aka, the teams that are…
Competitive
Sporting Kansas City: 9-3-3 (5-0-3 home, 4-3-0 away), 28 gf, 17 ga
Last 10 Results: WWWDLWWWDW (EEEETMMTET)
Strength of Schedule: 50% soft (3 hard, 2 middling, 5 easy), so not too damn hard, but, fair warning, they’re slaying rivals.
Notes: Sure, the Galaxy went sideways, but wasn’t Kansas City part of what turned them? Also, a two-goal over Seattle away (even with the latter’s reasonable beg-offs; see below), pairs nicely with home wins over Colorado and LAFC. All those happened within the last five games, which announces the obvious: Peter Vermes side is, for lack of a better word, doing the steady work of taking names and kicking ass…literally everyone’s except Portland at Providence Park…which suddenly feels like some vampire shit (not inviting them in is step 1 and it solves the problem).
Forecasting: It’s not perfect, but it’s damn good. Given everything, they officially became the team to beat in the West this weekend.
New England Revolution: 10-3-3 (6 1-0 home, 4-2-3 away), 30 gf, 19 ga
Last 10 Results: WWWWLDLWWW (METMETEMEM)
Strength of Schedule: Suffice to say, it has not been hard (2 hard, 4 middling, 4 easy).
Notes: And yet the Revs keep growing their margin - as good teams do. If they have any issue, it’s throwing away points like someone buying a round for the bar after their own divorce - see their last two losses, away to Dallas and (fucking) hosting Toronto (seriously?). Then again, those are their only defeats in their last 10 games. They’ll probably drop points to better teams later, but they’re own a path of righteousness.
Forecasting: Having watched them more than most, by optimist’s twist is that they always find a way. Pessimistically, they’ll top the East by default if they do it.
Seattle Sounders: 9-2-5 (5 1-3 home, 4-1-2 away), 25 gf, 12 ga
Last 10 Results: DDWWDDWLWL (EETMEMETET)
Strength of Schedule: Softening (3 hard, 2 middling, 5 easy), like them, but...
Notes: Sure, they’re second in the whole damn league, and they’re still recovering some stand-outs, they’ve had Gold Cup absences, etc. (then again, that’s a lot), but they still dropped stupid points recently (e.g., draws versus Vancouver and at Colorado), their last two wins fall short on the “wow factor (e.g., hosting Houston, at Austin). You can’t write them off, but they need to get whole and, this could be the kicker, in more ways than one.
Forecasting: They’ll get tougher, even if I haven’t seen anything about a summer singing yet.
Playoff-Bound
New York City FC: 7-5-2 (5-2-1 home, 2-3-1 away), 26 gf, 15 ga
Last 10 Results: DLWLWWLLWW (ETTTMMMTMM)
Strength of Schedule: Tougher than most, honestly (4 hard, 5 middling, 1 easy), but the worst of it came early.
Notes: They’ve scrapped out a tough result here - e.g., the away win to LAFC way back in Week 7 - and an impressive win there - e.g., the five-degrees of hurt they just dropped on Orlando - but NYC has mostly pillaged points from the middling (e.g., Atlanta and DC) and dropped points to the heavies (e.g., losses to both Columbus and the Revs at home). That said, they have a promising profile overall (a solid goal differential is rare this season), even if they struggle to beat your better-built teams. Don’t sleep hard, because they have some big wins this season (away to LAFC and Philly).
Forecasting: How many times does the boy have to cry wolf? They usually fizzle, but always have real potential.
Nashville SC: 6-1-8 (6-0-5 home, 0-1-3 away), 24 gf, 14 ga
Last 10 Results: WDLWDWDWDW (EMMEMTEETE)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn soft (2 easy, 3 middling, 5 easy), so that’s something to watch.
Notes: While short of a well-oiled machine - see drawing Montreal and Atlanta at home - Nashville is playing at a “good team” level; by that I mean, they beat weaker teams - sometimes with bells on and ringing; ask Chicago and Cincinnati - more often than they lose to them and hold steady against the rest. That’s a playoff season and, when you can knock off a team like Philly, who knows where you go?
Forecasting: Only four teams beat them at goals for, and only three teams beat them on goals against; have they evolved into a team that defends well and scores more? It’ll take tougher games to tell.
Colorado Rapids: 7-4-3 (5-1-2 home, 2-3-1 away), 21 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: WLWWLDWDWL (ETEETTTEET)
Strength of Schedule: A perfect 50/50 split (5 hard, 0 middling, 5 easy)
Notes: Which they’re managing well, by and large. You get some inexplicable weirdness - e.g., drawing San Jose at home - but they make up for those with the odd impressive win - e.g., beating Minnesota at home (and just the week before). Overall, it’s a lot of losing where you’d expect (e.g., away to LAFC and SKC), but also away to RSL, and badly.
Forecasting: More of the same, which should be good enough for anything but a trophy.
Philadelphia Union: 6-4-6 (4-2-1 home, 2-2-5 away), 20 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: WWDWDLDWLD (MMMTETMMTE)
Strength of Schedule: Not so bad (3 hard, 5 middling, 2 easy) and that’s kinda the issue, especially with the CCL no longer offering an excuse.
Notes: Call it one win in their last six games or two wins in their last eight, that’s still a lot of points to drop for last season’s Supporters’ Shield winners. More significantly, they’ve dropped dumb points lately - e.g., draws away to Chicago, Atlanta, and Miami - that fit a certain, dubious way with road losses to rivals like Nashville and Orlando. I recognized both as tough outs, but for a team with pretensions to class?
Forecasting: The way the last six games have been worse than they should have, doesn’t paint a hopeful picture, but I can’t imagine the hordes swallowing them.
Orlando City SC: 7-4-4 (4-1-2 home, 3-3-2 away), 23 gf, 19 ga
Last 10 Results: WLWWWLLDWL (EMEEEMEMTT)
Strength of Schedule: The going got tough when the tough showed up, with the two toughest games coming at the end (2 hard, 3 middling, 5 easy).
Notes: The state of Philadelphia saps the credit for Orlando’s last, great accomplishment, which bears watching because Orlando built the winning streak over the first five games of the last 10 by robbing from the poor (e.g., v TFC, @ RBNY, @ TFC, v SJ, @ MIA), and they lost where they should (at Red Bull) to boot. They’ve slipped in my estimation since Week 10’s report; four points from 15 will do that, especially when the going only just started getting tough.
Forecasting: They’re still a good bet for the playoffs, but the trends don’t look great, honestly.
Minnesota United FC: 6-5-3 (5-2-1 home, 1-3-2 away), 15 gf, 17 ga
Last 10 Results: WWDDWWDLWW (EEMEETEMTM)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn soft (2 hard, 3 middling, 5 easy), but they’ve coped both well and specifically as the opposition has leveled up.
Notes: Fun fact, Minnesota picked up two thirds of their wins for 2021 against Cascadia teams - two against the Timbers, including their lone road win of the season. They’ve also recovered from that rattled start to the season, and dealing Seattle its first loss of the season was a big one, but there’s a lot of stealing from vulnerable house-guests (e.g., Dallas and Austin) going on.
Forecasting: Your sense of a team changes when you see that team beat your team twice in a season, circumstances be damned. In context, Minnesota leans toward underwhelming, a step below 2020, certainly. Again, they should make the playoffs, but these are Cascadia-beaters, not world-beaters. So far.
Portland Timbers: 6-7-1 (5-2-0 home, 1-5-1 away), 18 gf, 22 ga
Last 10 Results: WWLWDLLWWL (EMTTMTEETT)
Strength of Schedule: If there’s any solace for Timbers fans, it’s the argument they’ve played a tough schedule lately (5 hard, 2 middling, 3 easy).
Notes: That said, they got to the road jitters real bad, and that’s how they dropped two points at Houston and all three (and hard) against Austin. You can go all over with this - e.g., on the one hand, they have yet to have their full squad, on the other, they’ve had their full defense often enough - and I’m not either hand brings you any closer to the clarity with this bunch.
Forecasting: I wish I fucking knew, so that I could either feel better or give up.
Los Angeles FC: 6-5-4 (4-1-3 home, 2-4-1 away), 20 gf, 17 ga
Last 10 Results: WLDWLWWWLD (ETEETTEMTM)
Strength of Schedule: Easier than hard (4 hard, 2 middling, 4 easy), which feels clarifying.
Notes: I bit on the “LAFC is back” hype, but that’s why I like doing this ridiculous shit: here are their five wins over the past 10 games - v COL, V FCD, @ RSL, @ ATX, v RSL. Note home draws against Houston and Vancouver, toss in that strength of schedule and…well, it’s a lot less impressive.
Forecasting: To note something I haven’t, don’t read too much into the order in which I’ve listed the teams, even when it’s semi-conscious. For as much as LAFC looks like themselves lately, they’re still dropping points against your better teams, which should be good enough for one thing (the playoffs), but not the other (doing much when you get there).
Los Angeles Galaxy: 8-6-1 (5-2-0 home, 3-4-1 away), 23 gf, 26 ga
Last 10 Results: LWLWWLWLDL (TETMETEMTE)
Strength of Schedule: They followed a damn near perfect map of their match-ups (4 hard, 2 middling, 4 easy)
Notes: Even if it hasn’t been gravy - e.g., a 2-1 win away to Vancouver is a decent result, even if it wasn’t in Vancouver - the Galaxy have carved one of the best-defined niches in 2021, if not in MLS history, in that they almost always do what makes the most sense - and all the way down to paying back the earlier 2-1 win away to the ‘Caps with a 1-2 away loss to the ‘Caps. It’s uncanny…well, until you factor in Dallas kicking their candy-asses in (their) Week 15. That said, even missing Sebastian Llegett takes enough away to make one wonder.
Forecasting: Chicharito’s torrid 2021 covered some number of sins, apparently, which makes this a case of, we’ll see where they go from here.
Watch-List
Real Salt Lake: 5-4-5 (3-2-4 at home, 2-2-1 away), 24 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: DDWLDLWLDW (ETETETMTTM)
Strength of Schedule: 60% doable for a good team (4 hard, 3 middling, 3 easy) and they’re leaving points on the table, so…
Notes: I’d convinced myself RSL was surging, but…nope. Add in the fact they’ve played 3/5th of their games at home (not that it’s helped, but) and, like Red Bull, they’ve got one team’s number, and with a multiplier (Vancouver, who they’ve beat twice, seven goals to one), and you’ve got a hard team to read. Some results they’ve dropped and shouldn’t - e.g., draws against Dallas and Houston at home - gives one of several reasons why I wouldn’t bet on them.
Forecasting: They’ve picked up some noteworthy points (7 of 12) over their last four (@ VAN, @ LAFC, v LAG, v COL), which could point to a brighter future.
Red Bull New York: 5-6-3 (4-1-1 home, 1-5-2 away), 18 gf, 17 ga
Last 10 Results: LLWWLDWDDL (TTTMTMTTMM)
Strength of Schedule: Among the tougher schedules (6 hard, 4 middling, 0 easy), which somewhat excuses their ass bumping on the ground.
Notes: Red Bull has made a strong argument for watching match-ups: they’ve got Orlando’s number; also, take away those wins and this team is…not so good. In their defense, they’ve played the East’s apex predators over their past 10 games - Philly twice, New England twice on the road, and they got just one point from all that - but that road record could kill ‘em, especially when they only managed one point between games at DC and Toronto.
Forecasting: It’s hard to know, but I’d watch for when they fail to pick up points they should. Like last couple weeks…
DC United: 6-7-2 (5-2-0 home, 1-5-2 away), 21 gf, 18 ga
Last 10 Results: LLWWDLWLDW (TTEEMTETEM)
Strength of Schedule: Another that’s 60% soft (4 hard, 2 middling, 4 easy), but they’re hanging strong around mid-table.
Notes: Like Minnesota, DC has stabilized after a shit-show start. The recovery looks worse under scrutiny - e.g., two wins against Miami (get in line) and the game that got Chris Armas fired - but it’s the little signs you look for - e.g., a road draw to Montreal and a home win over Red Bull last weekend. All those losses came at either a tough time (i.e., during the shit-show) or in tough rooms (e.g., Philly and NYC away).
Forecasting: They’re better, but still echo-locating for where they’ll wind up.
Atlanta United FC: 2-5-8 (2-2-3 home, 0-3-5 away), 14 gf, 18 ga
Last 10 Results: DDDLDLDLDL (TTTTMETTET)
Strength of Schedule: I see only one schedule that looked harder (7 hard, 1 middling, 2 easy), but, as noted above, that’s one part of being a bad team.
Notes: Strength of schedule notwithstanding, a 10-game winless streak is exactly…THAT. To be clear, it has been tough, as in, these are Atlanta’s home games over their last 10: v NSH, v PHI, v RBNY, v NE, v CLB - so small wonder they only pulled three points out of that. Atlanta should be able to make that barren stretch fertile when they host weaker teams. Should, I said. We’ll see.
Forecasting: If there’s a limit on their ceiling, it’s how shitty they’ve been on the road - see the loss at Chicago and the draw at Cincy. Yes, those count as signals/missed opportunities.
San Jose Earthquakes: 3-7-5 (2-4-1 at home, 1-3-4 away), 17 gf, 25 ga
Last 10 Results: LLLDLLDDDD (MTTETTTMTE)
Strength of Schedule: Similar to the Atlanta (6 hard, 2 middling, 2 easy), but tougher lately…
Notes: And they’re trending better. They’ve got to win at some point before any neutral will care (NOTE: I don’t), but the last three draws they posted - @ MIN, @ COL, @ SKC(!); and that was three straight games - hints that San Jose still has a pulse.
Forecasting: At the same time, most of the league seems to have cracked the man-marking system.
FC Dallas: 4-7-5 (3 0-5 home, 0-7-0 away), 18 gf, 23 ga
Last 10 Results: DLDLWDLLLW (MTTTTETTTM)
Strength of Schedule: The toughest of the lot (7 hard, 2 middling, 1 easy), which they’ve managed to make weird.
Notes: First, and despite considerable opposition (see above and below), Dallas has the league’s worst away record; they’re also somehow both unbeaten and mediocre at home. The only thing keeping them alive is the strangest story of 2021: Dallas’ ability to pound good (or “good”) teams out of the blue - e.g., Portland, New England, and the Galaxy - something that rhymes with Dallas knocking Portland out of the 2020 playoffs, and somewhat ominously. And, like Atlanta, San Jose, and Red Bull, they have easier games coming.
Forecasting: On the one hand, never say never; on the other, don’t wait too long before you do.
Club Foot de Montreal: 6-5-4 (4-1-2 at home, 2-4-2 away), 20 gf, 18 ga
Last 10 Results: LLWDDWWWLL (MEEETETETT)
Strength of Schedule: First, mind the schedule (4 hard, 1 middling, 5 easy); now, ignore it.
Notes: Montreal caught the league’s attention (or just mine) when they beat NYC at home; the draw at Nashville the week before hinted at the same thing: Montreal could hang. Going the other way, they lost at Cincinnati some weeks earlier and, later, had to fight like hell to edge them five, six weeks later. Week 9-13 they had a good run, no question, but there’s also not much to suggest they’ll do anything but chin-ups on the playoff line.
Forecasting: I don’t expect this to change immensely, even after they get home.
The Presently Irrelevant
Toronto FC: 3-8-4 (1-2-3 home, 2-6-1 away), 20 gf, 32 ga
Last 10 Results: LLLLLLWDDW (TTTTEMTTME)
Strength of Schedule: This is eye-catching (6 hard, 2 middling, 2 easy), but not nearly as eye-catching as their last four games.
Notes: They’re a bit cursed at home…and away isn’t great, but I can’t remember the last time any pattern I’ve seen pointed to a coach being the problem quite like this. Setting aside Chicago (even on the road), Toronto got five points of twelve out of New England away, and Orlando and Red Bull at home. Not bad for a shitty team - especially when the follow it up with an away win in Chicago.
Forecasting: Has the sleeper awakened? My strong guess is no, but that’s mostly down to the half dozen points plus that separate them from the playoff line. They could “catch fire,” but it’d have to burn pretty damn hot to matter and scorch all that come before them.
Vancouver Whitecaps: 3-7-5 (3-3-1 home, 0-4-4 away), 16 gf, 25 ga
Last 10 Results: LLLLDDLWDD (TMTMTEMMMT)
Strength of Schedule: For a team at the bottom of the West, rough (4 hard, 5 middling, 1 easy).
Notes: Another team gradually breaking out of the “doomed” mold, the ‘Caps have had results any team would take over the past six weeks - e.g., a draw at Seattle and a home win against the Galaxy; moreover, they’re punching even with direct (lowly) rivals like Dallas and Houston. I wouldn’t count them out yet; also, see the “Canadian Asterisk” in the preamble.
Forecasting: Then again, and as above, that’s a hell of a lot of ground to make up, and against teams still likely to collect points at a similar or better rate.
Houston Dynamo: 3-4-8 (3-0-3 home, 0-4-5 away), 17 gf, 20 ga
Last 10 Results: LWLDDDDLDD (TETTMTETMM)
Strength of Schedule: Leaning easy, but not too steeply (4 hard, 4 middling, 2 easy), and yet.
Note: With just one win over their past 10, the Dynamo have become a team you can ignore except when they play your team…because they will probably draw them, and almost regardless of venue.
Forecasting: I see Houston as a black hole, honestly, more negative than positive and sucking points off other teams.
FC Cincinnati, 3-7-4 (0-3-2 home, 3-4-2 away), 17 gf, 29 ga
Last 10 Results: WLLWWDDLDL (MTMEEMTTMT)
Strength of Schedule: Tilting toward challenging for a team trying to rise (4 hard, 4 middling, 2 easy).
Notes: One, that sputtering noise you hear is telling you something; related, a parent’s affection could be why I labeled Atlanta away “tough” instead of “middling” (it’s middling). As someone who follows Cincy, I’ll just say this: they have improved, without question, and becoming closer to balanced plays a big role, the way they keep bobbing on the wrong side of the surface is everything till further notice.
Forecasting: I see their battle less as one of making the post-season, never mind winning a damn thing, than battling to avoid being the worst team in MLS for three years straight.
Chicago Fire: 3-9-3 (3-4-3 home, 0-5-0 away), 17 gf, 27 ga
Last 10 Results: WLLLDWWLDL (EMTETMTTME)
Strength of Schedule: Respectable (4 hard, 3 middling, 3 easy), much like the results they’re getting out of it lately.
Notes: Don’t get me wrong, Chicago has pissed away nine points - e.g., v MTL, v CIN, and v TFC - but, since that fighting home draw against Philly, and forgetting that blowout loss away to Nashville (and probably the home loss to TFC last week), Chicago worries me, but only as a Cincinnati fan. Because we need teams to be worse. Still, I don’t think the Fire will ever rise higher than potential pain in the ass.
Forecasting: That home record isn’t good, and that away record is shit, so, here’s to hoping for more of the same. Selfishly, and I do love Chicago.
Inter Miami CF: 2-8-3 (0-5-2 home, 2-3-1 away), 10 gf, 23 ga
Last 10 Results: DLWLLLLLLD (MMEEMMTMTT)
Strength of Schedule: Damn near impossible for this bunch (3 hard, 5 middling, 2 easy) and I wouldn’t read too much into that home draw against Philly last week.
Notes: They’ve got to make a pattern before I care about the blips.
Forecasting: I will continue to expect pain until morale improves.
My final thought is this: anyone who has told you MLS is a “random” league, is more wrong than right. Sure, it’s not the English Premier League, Serie A, or even La Liga, in that every season isn’t a struggling to stay up or die more most teams, and with vanishingly little hopes for glory. At the same time, I didn’t have to move around which teams went where much between Week 10 and Week 15 - aside from some falls from grace (e.g., Orlando, Philly, and both LA teams) - very few teams’ fates changes beyond repair. That also applies to the teams at the bottom: I can see some shifts at the lower margins - e.g., a team like Toronto or even Vancouver overtaking a team that slips - but I still think the playoff picture won’t change beyond a rise here and a fall there.
And that’s it. Bless you for your patience.
I made some tweaks to the Week 10 version of this post (which I referenced, like, a lot less than I thought I would), most notably: I added a loose scale - and trust me when I say loose - for the strength of opposition, something I thought would give further context for those last 10 results (there, T = tough, M = middling, and E = easy). It’s a lot of blah, blah, blah, after that, so the last step is organizing the teams into three tiers:
Competitive: Could win a trophy or, failing that, reach the semi-final
Playoff-Bound: A good bet for MLS's (over-expansive) playoffs, but a bad bet for trophies
Watch-List: Teams who might graduate to the above, no matter how narrowly
The Presently-Irrelevant: Teams who, based on evidence and history, will not
Again, it’ll make sense, honest. If anything stood out, it was the fact that the league’s stronger teams all seemed to play generally weaker schedules than the weaker teams. Then again, it was those weaker teams that made the softer schedules for those stronger teams, so there’s still a lot of big fish eating smaller fish and those smaller fish dying. That’s only part of the narrative, though, and some of the trends I see have serious potential to up-end a narrative here and start a new narrative there. For instance, think of what might happen if MLS’s Canadian teams, nearly all of whom have something better than nothing going for them, get to move back north for actual home games (aka, the “Canadian Asterisk”)? Also, there will be typos, in the numbers, especially, so do double-check as needed. That’s just one factor explored below, even if it doesn’t apply to so much to the top-tier teams, aka, the teams that are…
Competitive
Sporting Kansas City: 9-3-3 (5-0-3 home, 4-3-0 away), 28 gf, 17 ga
Last 10 Results: WWWDLWWWDW (EEEETMMTET)
Strength of Schedule: 50% soft (3 hard, 2 middling, 5 easy), so not too damn hard, but, fair warning, they’re slaying rivals.
Notes: Sure, the Galaxy went sideways, but wasn’t Kansas City part of what turned them? Also, a two-goal over Seattle away (even with the latter’s reasonable beg-offs; see below), pairs nicely with home wins over Colorado and LAFC. All those happened within the last five games, which announces the obvious: Peter Vermes side is, for lack of a better word, doing the steady work of taking names and kicking ass…literally everyone’s except Portland at Providence Park…which suddenly feels like some vampire shit (not inviting them in is step 1 and it solves the problem).
Forecasting: It’s not perfect, but it’s damn good. Given everything, they officially became the team to beat in the West this weekend.
New England Revolution: 10-3-3 (6 1-0 home, 4-2-3 away), 30 gf, 19 ga
Last 10 Results: WWWWLDLWWW (METMETEMEM)
Strength of Schedule: Suffice to say, it has not been hard (2 hard, 4 middling, 4 easy).
Notes: And yet the Revs keep growing their margin - as good teams do. If they have any issue, it’s throwing away points like someone buying a round for the bar after their own divorce - see their last two losses, away to Dallas and (fucking) hosting Toronto (seriously?). Then again, those are their only defeats in their last 10 games. They’ll probably drop points to better teams later, but they’re own a path of righteousness.
Forecasting: Having watched them more than most, by optimist’s twist is that they always find a way. Pessimistically, they’ll top the East by default if they do it.
Seattle Sounders: 9-2-5 (5 1-3 home, 4-1-2 away), 25 gf, 12 ga
Last 10 Results: DDWWDDWLWL (EETMEMETET)
Strength of Schedule: Softening (3 hard, 2 middling, 5 easy), like them, but...
Notes: Sure, they’re second in the whole damn league, and they’re still recovering some stand-outs, they’ve had Gold Cup absences, etc. (then again, that’s a lot), but they still dropped stupid points recently (e.g., draws versus Vancouver and at Colorado), their last two wins fall short on the “wow factor (e.g., hosting Houston, at Austin). You can’t write them off, but they need to get whole and, this could be the kicker, in more ways than one.
Forecasting: They’ll get tougher, even if I haven’t seen anything about a summer singing yet.
Playoff-Bound
New York City FC: 7-5-2 (5-2-1 home, 2-3-1 away), 26 gf, 15 ga
Last 10 Results: DLWLWWLLWW (ETTTMMMTMM)
Strength of Schedule: Tougher than most, honestly (4 hard, 5 middling, 1 easy), but the worst of it came early.
Notes: They’ve scrapped out a tough result here - e.g., the away win to LAFC way back in Week 7 - and an impressive win there - e.g., the five-degrees of hurt they just dropped on Orlando - but NYC has mostly pillaged points from the middling (e.g., Atlanta and DC) and dropped points to the heavies (e.g., losses to both Columbus and the Revs at home). That said, they have a promising profile overall (a solid goal differential is rare this season), even if they struggle to beat your better-built teams. Don’t sleep hard, because they have some big wins this season (away to LAFC and Philly).
Forecasting: How many times does the boy have to cry wolf? They usually fizzle, but always have real potential.
Nashville SC: 6-1-8 (6-0-5 home, 0-1-3 away), 24 gf, 14 ga
Last 10 Results: WDLWDWDWDW (EMMEMTEETE)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn soft (2 easy, 3 middling, 5 easy), so that’s something to watch.
Notes: While short of a well-oiled machine - see drawing Montreal and Atlanta at home - Nashville is playing at a “good team” level; by that I mean, they beat weaker teams - sometimes with bells on and ringing; ask Chicago and Cincinnati - more often than they lose to them and hold steady against the rest. That’s a playoff season and, when you can knock off a team like Philly, who knows where you go?
Forecasting: Only four teams beat them at goals for, and only three teams beat them on goals against; have they evolved into a team that defends well and scores more? It’ll take tougher games to tell.
Colorado Rapids: 7-4-3 (5-1-2 home, 2-3-1 away), 21 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: WLWWLDWDWL (ETEETTTEET)
Strength of Schedule: A perfect 50/50 split (5 hard, 0 middling, 5 easy)
Notes: Which they’re managing well, by and large. You get some inexplicable weirdness - e.g., drawing San Jose at home - but they make up for those with the odd impressive win - e.g., beating Minnesota at home (and just the week before). Overall, it’s a lot of losing where you’d expect (e.g., away to LAFC and SKC), but also away to RSL, and badly.
Forecasting: More of the same, which should be good enough for anything but a trophy.
Philadelphia Union: 6-4-6 (4-2-1 home, 2-2-5 away), 20 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: WWDWDLDWLD (MMMTETMMTE)
Strength of Schedule: Not so bad (3 hard, 5 middling, 2 easy) and that’s kinda the issue, especially with the CCL no longer offering an excuse.
Notes: Call it one win in their last six games or two wins in their last eight, that’s still a lot of points to drop for last season’s Supporters’ Shield winners. More significantly, they’ve dropped dumb points lately - e.g., draws away to Chicago, Atlanta, and Miami - that fit a certain, dubious way with road losses to rivals like Nashville and Orlando. I recognized both as tough outs, but for a team with pretensions to class?
Forecasting: The way the last six games have been worse than they should have, doesn’t paint a hopeful picture, but I can’t imagine the hordes swallowing them.
Orlando City SC: 7-4-4 (4-1-2 home, 3-3-2 away), 23 gf, 19 ga
Last 10 Results: WLWWWLLDWL (EMEEEMEMTT)
Strength of Schedule: The going got tough when the tough showed up, with the two toughest games coming at the end (2 hard, 3 middling, 5 easy).
Notes: The state of Philadelphia saps the credit for Orlando’s last, great accomplishment, which bears watching because Orlando built the winning streak over the first five games of the last 10 by robbing from the poor (e.g., v TFC, @ RBNY, @ TFC, v SJ, @ MIA), and they lost where they should (at Red Bull) to boot. They’ve slipped in my estimation since Week 10’s report; four points from 15 will do that, especially when the going only just started getting tough.
Forecasting: They’re still a good bet for the playoffs, but the trends don’t look great, honestly.
Minnesota United FC: 6-5-3 (5-2-1 home, 1-3-2 away), 15 gf, 17 ga
Last 10 Results: WWDDWWDLWW (EEMEETEMTM)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn soft (2 hard, 3 middling, 5 easy), but they’ve coped both well and specifically as the opposition has leveled up.
Notes: Fun fact, Minnesota picked up two thirds of their wins for 2021 against Cascadia teams - two against the Timbers, including their lone road win of the season. They’ve also recovered from that rattled start to the season, and dealing Seattle its first loss of the season was a big one, but there’s a lot of stealing from vulnerable house-guests (e.g., Dallas and Austin) going on.
Forecasting: Your sense of a team changes when you see that team beat your team twice in a season, circumstances be damned. In context, Minnesota leans toward underwhelming, a step below 2020, certainly. Again, they should make the playoffs, but these are Cascadia-beaters, not world-beaters. So far.
Portland Timbers: 6-7-1 (5-2-0 home, 1-5-1 away), 18 gf, 22 ga
Last 10 Results: WWLWDLLWWL (EMTTMTEETT)
Strength of Schedule: If there’s any solace for Timbers fans, it’s the argument they’ve played a tough schedule lately (5 hard, 2 middling, 3 easy).
Notes: That said, they got to the road jitters real bad, and that’s how they dropped two points at Houston and all three (and hard) against Austin. You can go all over with this - e.g., on the one hand, they have yet to have their full squad, on the other, they’ve had their full defense often enough - and I’m not either hand brings you any closer to the clarity with this bunch.
Forecasting: I wish I fucking knew, so that I could either feel better or give up.
Los Angeles FC: 6-5-4 (4-1-3 home, 2-4-1 away), 20 gf, 17 ga
Last 10 Results: WLDWLWWWLD (ETEETTEMTM)
Strength of Schedule: Easier than hard (4 hard, 2 middling, 4 easy), which feels clarifying.
Notes: I bit on the “LAFC is back” hype, but that’s why I like doing this ridiculous shit: here are their five wins over the past 10 games - v COL, V FCD, @ RSL, @ ATX, v RSL. Note home draws against Houston and Vancouver, toss in that strength of schedule and…well, it’s a lot less impressive.
Forecasting: To note something I haven’t, don’t read too much into the order in which I’ve listed the teams, even when it’s semi-conscious. For as much as LAFC looks like themselves lately, they’re still dropping points against your better teams, which should be good enough for one thing (the playoffs), but not the other (doing much when you get there).
Los Angeles Galaxy: 8-6-1 (5-2-0 home, 3-4-1 away), 23 gf, 26 ga
Last 10 Results: LWLWWLWLDL (TETMETEMTE)
Strength of Schedule: They followed a damn near perfect map of their match-ups (4 hard, 2 middling, 4 easy)
Notes: Even if it hasn’t been gravy - e.g., a 2-1 win away to Vancouver is a decent result, even if it wasn’t in Vancouver - the Galaxy have carved one of the best-defined niches in 2021, if not in MLS history, in that they almost always do what makes the most sense - and all the way down to paying back the earlier 2-1 win away to the ‘Caps with a 1-2 away loss to the ‘Caps. It’s uncanny…well, until you factor in Dallas kicking their candy-asses in (their) Week 15. That said, even missing Sebastian Llegett takes enough away to make one wonder.
Forecasting: Chicharito’s torrid 2021 covered some number of sins, apparently, which makes this a case of, we’ll see where they go from here.
Watch-List
Real Salt Lake: 5-4-5 (3-2-4 at home, 2-2-1 away), 24 gf, 16 ga
Last 10 Results: DDWLDLWLDW (ETETETMTTM)
Strength of Schedule: 60% doable for a good team (4 hard, 3 middling, 3 easy) and they’re leaving points on the table, so…
Notes: I’d convinced myself RSL was surging, but…nope. Add in the fact they’ve played 3/5th of their games at home (not that it’s helped, but) and, like Red Bull, they’ve got one team’s number, and with a multiplier (Vancouver, who they’ve beat twice, seven goals to one), and you’ve got a hard team to read. Some results they’ve dropped and shouldn’t - e.g., draws against Dallas and Houston at home - gives one of several reasons why I wouldn’t bet on them.
Forecasting: They’ve picked up some noteworthy points (7 of 12) over their last four (@ VAN, @ LAFC, v LAG, v COL), which could point to a brighter future.
Red Bull New York: 5-6-3 (4-1-1 home, 1-5-2 away), 18 gf, 17 ga
Last 10 Results: LLWWLDWDDL (TTTMTMTTMM)
Strength of Schedule: Among the tougher schedules (6 hard, 4 middling, 0 easy), which somewhat excuses their ass bumping on the ground.
Notes: Red Bull has made a strong argument for watching match-ups: they’ve got Orlando’s number; also, take away those wins and this team is…not so good. In their defense, they’ve played the East’s apex predators over their past 10 games - Philly twice, New England twice on the road, and they got just one point from all that - but that road record could kill ‘em, especially when they only managed one point between games at DC and Toronto.
Forecasting: It’s hard to know, but I’d watch for when they fail to pick up points they should. Like last couple weeks…
DC United: 6-7-2 (5-2-0 home, 1-5-2 away), 21 gf, 18 ga
Last 10 Results: LLWWDLWLDW (TTEEMTETEM)
Strength of Schedule: Another that’s 60% soft (4 hard, 2 middling, 4 easy), but they’re hanging strong around mid-table.
Notes: Like Minnesota, DC has stabilized after a shit-show start. The recovery looks worse under scrutiny - e.g., two wins against Miami (get in line) and the game that got Chris Armas fired - but it’s the little signs you look for - e.g., a road draw to Montreal and a home win over Red Bull last weekend. All those losses came at either a tough time (i.e., during the shit-show) or in tough rooms (e.g., Philly and NYC away).
Forecasting: They’re better, but still echo-locating for where they’ll wind up.
Atlanta United FC: 2-5-8 (2-2-3 home, 0-3-5 away), 14 gf, 18 ga
Last 10 Results: DDDLDLDLDL (TTTTMETTET)
Strength of Schedule: I see only one schedule that looked harder (7 hard, 1 middling, 2 easy), but, as noted above, that’s one part of being a bad team.
Notes: Strength of schedule notwithstanding, a 10-game winless streak is exactly…THAT. To be clear, it has been tough, as in, these are Atlanta’s home games over their last 10: v NSH, v PHI, v RBNY, v NE, v CLB - so small wonder they only pulled three points out of that. Atlanta should be able to make that barren stretch fertile when they host weaker teams. Should, I said. We’ll see.
Forecasting: If there’s a limit on their ceiling, it’s how shitty they’ve been on the road - see the loss at Chicago and the draw at Cincy. Yes, those count as signals/missed opportunities.
San Jose Earthquakes: 3-7-5 (2-4-1 at home, 1-3-4 away), 17 gf, 25 ga
Last 10 Results: LLLDLLDDDD (MTTETTTMTE)
Strength of Schedule: Similar to the Atlanta (6 hard, 2 middling, 2 easy), but tougher lately…
Notes: And they’re trending better. They’ve got to win at some point before any neutral will care (NOTE: I don’t), but the last three draws they posted - @ MIN, @ COL, @ SKC(!); and that was three straight games - hints that San Jose still has a pulse.
Forecasting: At the same time, most of the league seems to have cracked the man-marking system.
FC Dallas: 4-7-5 (3 0-5 home, 0-7-0 away), 18 gf, 23 ga
Last 10 Results: DLDLWDLLLW (MTTTTETTTM)
Strength of Schedule: The toughest of the lot (7 hard, 2 middling, 1 easy), which they’ve managed to make weird.
Notes: First, and despite considerable opposition (see above and below), Dallas has the league’s worst away record; they’re also somehow both unbeaten and mediocre at home. The only thing keeping them alive is the strangest story of 2021: Dallas’ ability to pound good (or “good”) teams out of the blue - e.g., Portland, New England, and the Galaxy - something that rhymes with Dallas knocking Portland out of the 2020 playoffs, and somewhat ominously. And, like Atlanta, San Jose, and Red Bull, they have easier games coming.
Forecasting: On the one hand, never say never; on the other, don’t wait too long before you do.
Club Foot de Montreal: 6-5-4 (4-1-2 at home, 2-4-2 away), 20 gf, 18 ga
Last 10 Results: LLWDDWWWLL (MEEETETETT)
Strength of Schedule: First, mind the schedule (4 hard, 1 middling, 5 easy); now, ignore it.
Notes: Montreal caught the league’s attention (or just mine) when they beat NYC at home; the draw at Nashville the week before hinted at the same thing: Montreal could hang. Going the other way, they lost at Cincinnati some weeks earlier and, later, had to fight like hell to edge them five, six weeks later. Week 9-13 they had a good run, no question, but there’s also not much to suggest they’ll do anything but chin-ups on the playoff line.
Forecasting: I don’t expect this to change immensely, even after they get home.
The Presently Irrelevant
Toronto FC: 3-8-4 (1-2-3 home, 2-6-1 away), 20 gf, 32 ga
Last 10 Results: LLLLLLWDDW (TTTTEMTTME)
Strength of Schedule: This is eye-catching (6 hard, 2 middling, 2 easy), but not nearly as eye-catching as their last four games.
Notes: They’re a bit cursed at home…and away isn’t great, but I can’t remember the last time any pattern I’ve seen pointed to a coach being the problem quite like this. Setting aside Chicago (even on the road), Toronto got five points of twelve out of New England away, and Orlando and Red Bull at home. Not bad for a shitty team - especially when the follow it up with an away win in Chicago.
Forecasting: Has the sleeper awakened? My strong guess is no, but that’s mostly down to the half dozen points plus that separate them from the playoff line. They could “catch fire,” but it’d have to burn pretty damn hot to matter and scorch all that come before them.
Vancouver Whitecaps: 3-7-5 (3-3-1 home, 0-4-4 away), 16 gf, 25 ga
Last 10 Results: LLLLDDLWDD (TMTMTEMMMT)
Strength of Schedule: For a team at the bottom of the West, rough (4 hard, 5 middling, 1 easy).
Notes: Another team gradually breaking out of the “doomed” mold, the ‘Caps have had results any team would take over the past six weeks - e.g., a draw at Seattle and a home win against the Galaxy; moreover, they’re punching even with direct (lowly) rivals like Dallas and Houston. I wouldn’t count them out yet; also, see the “Canadian Asterisk” in the preamble.
Forecasting: Then again, and as above, that’s a hell of a lot of ground to make up, and against teams still likely to collect points at a similar or better rate.
Houston Dynamo: 3-4-8 (3-0-3 home, 0-4-5 away), 17 gf, 20 ga
Last 10 Results: LWLDDDDLDD (TETTMTETMM)
Strength of Schedule: Leaning easy, but not too steeply (4 hard, 4 middling, 2 easy), and yet.
Note: With just one win over their past 10, the Dynamo have become a team you can ignore except when they play your team…because they will probably draw them, and almost regardless of venue.
Forecasting: I see Houston as a black hole, honestly, more negative than positive and sucking points off other teams.
FC Cincinnati, 3-7-4 (0-3-2 home, 3-4-2 away), 17 gf, 29 ga
Last 10 Results: WLLWWDDLDL (MTMEEMTTMT)
Strength of Schedule: Tilting toward challenging for a team trying to rise (4 hard, 4 middling, 2 easy).
Notes: One, that sputtering noise you hear is telling you something; related, a parent’s affection could be why I labeled Atlanta away “tough” instead of “middling” (it’s middling). As someone who follows Cincy, I’ll just say this: they have improved, without question, and becoming closer to balanced plays a big role, the way they keep bobbing on the wrong side of the surface is everything till further notice.
Forecasting: I see their battle less as one of making the post-season, never mind winning a damn thing, than battling to avoid being the worst team in MLS for three years straight.
Chicago Fire: 3-9-3 (3-4-3 home, 0-5-0 away), 17 gf, 27 ga
Last 10 Results: WLLLDWWLDL (EMTETMTTME)
Strength of Schedule: Respectable (4 hard, 3 middling, 3 easy), much like the results they’re getting out of it lately.
Notes: Don’t get me wrong, Chicago has pissed away nine points - e.g., v MTL, v CIN, and v TFC - but, since that fighting home draw against Philly, and forgetting that blowout loss away to Nashville (and probably the home loss to TFC last week), Chicago worries me, but only as a Cincinnati fan. Because we need teams to be worse. Still, I don’t think the Fire will ever rise higher than potential pain in the ass.
Forecasting: That home record isn’t good, and that away record is shit, so, here’s to hoping for more of the same. Selfishly, and I do love Chicago.
Inter Miami CF: 2-8-3 (0-5-2 home, 2-3-1 away), 10 gf, 23 ga
Last 10 Results: DLWLLLLLLD (MMEEMMTMTT)
Strength of Schedule: Damn near impossible for this bunch (3 hard, 5 middling, 2 easy) and I wouldn’t read too much into that home draw against Philly last week.
Notes: They’ve got to make a pattern before I care about the blips.
Forecasting: I will continue to expect pain until morale improves.
My final thought is this: anyone who has told you MLS is a “random” league, is more wrong than right. Sure, it’s not the English Premier League, Serie A, or even La Liga, in that every season isn’t a struggling to stay up or die more most teams, and with vanishingly little hopes for glory. At the same time, I didn’t have to move around which teams went where much between Week 10 and Week 15 - aside from some falls from grace (e.g., Orlando, Philly, and both LA teams) - very few teams’ fates changes beyond repair. That also applies to the teams at the bottom: I can see some shifts at the lower margins - e.g., a team like Toronto or even Vancouver overtaking a team that slips - but I still think the playoff picture won’t change beyond a rise here and a fall there.
And that’s it. Bless you for your patience.
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