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FC Cincinnati v Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew SC v Chicago Fire FC
Club du Foot Montreal v Orlando City SC
Nashville SC v Red Bull New York
New England Revolution v Inter Miami CF
New York City FC v Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC v DC United
Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC
Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy v Minnesota United FC
Portland Timbers v Austin FC
San Jose Earthquakes v FC Dallas
Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle Sounders
There they are (barring typos), the final match-ups of Major League Soccer’s 26th(?) season (fuck it, I miss my own anniversary every year, as does my wife). For those wondering about how a 27-team league can have “everyone” play on the final day of the season, while playing only 13 games (as I did until further study), the Houston Dynamo have alreay eaten the hemlock on its 2021 season, splitting the twig with now-former head coach, Tab Ramos, who was let to go today. Or yesterday. Good dude, or least I always liked him. Cheers, Tab.
While I’ve got theories about who will win what in the above games, 1) that’s not the main theme of this post, and 2) I’ve been shit for predictions lately, so my best advice to anyone fishing for that would be to sit a chicken at the center of some arcane pattern with MLS logos, scatter around some feed, see where the chicken pecks, and bet accordingly.
Some of those games don’t matter, of course, and for a variety of reasons. With that in mind, consider the following unconsidered:
Columbus v Chicago
New England v Miami
Portland v Austin
San Jose v Dallas
If only the last match-up seems like a piss-away, allow me to explain the rest. In reverse order: Austin can’t reach the playoffs, and Portland can’t rise above or fall out of 4th in the West no matter what happens tomorrow; Miami’s already out and the Revs can’t catch the single-season record for total goals scored (they’re not even close), so who gives a shit?; despite being mathematically present, Columbus needs, not only to win, but to make up a goal differential of seven (7) to catch the Red Bulls, a team that has given up four goals in its last 10 games. Columbus deserves credit for ending 2021 on an up, but they’ve blown out of all one team all season - Miami, at home, Week 29 (4-0) - and they’ve won by more than two goals just three times all season long. In other words, drop $5 on them to reach the playoffs, and for the same reason people play the lottery.
For anyone wondering (again, I did till further study), DC has a barely plausible, yet uncomplicated path to the playoffs: if they win and Red Bull loses and Montreal loses or draws, they go in unimpeded. Their odds aren’t great - e.g., they’re crap on the road (2-10-4) and, though out of the playoffs and generally underwhelming, Toronto went 3-2-2 at home down the stretch, and against better teams than limping DC, but also Miami. To think, all DC had to do was beat Columbus at home last weekend…nope…
As for the rest…hold on, staring at the standings…okeh. Okeh. Okeh. Ready.
What I said about DC constitutes a mini-theme of the MLS 2021 Stretch-Run. A handful of teams in a couple set of circumstances had better-than-even opportunities to jockey into better positions for Decision Day, only to piss them away. For instance:
Atlanta
They drew their last two, at home against Toronto, then away to Red Bull. One win between those and they would have been a top four team with a breeze behind ‘em. (and I mean, actually would; NYCFC has had a run*, and they’re on 50 points to Atlanta’s 48).
Sporting KC
Back-to-back losses at Minnesota and Austin, out-scored 2-5 over the same. Yeah, yeah, they’re still only one point back in the race to win the West, but this was an 8-7-2 on the road team on the season, and they’d won four of the prior five games, including road wins at Dallas and Seattle.
Real Salt Lake
Two straight losses at home, first to (the already eliminated) San Jose, then a pithed-frog loss to Portland. The teams above (e.g., Minnesota, Vancouver and the Galaxy) have landed reasonable results over their last two games (the Galaxy picked up just one point, but those were road games at SKC and Seattle), which makes it fairly reasonable to say RSL would have been above all three with just one win from those two home games (thanks to the total wins tie-breaker), and one point clear had they beat San Jose and drew the Timbers. They didn’t and now they got work.
Seattle/Orlando
They might look like strange bedfellows, but, 1) both have picked up just one point from their last two games, and 2) that follows a larger pattern for both teams, even if the scale doesn’t line up. To wit:
Seattle: 0-3-2 in their last five, with the losses coming at home v SKC and at Houston and LAFC (a bad one); the draws came at Colorado and, again, at home against the Galaxy. I can’t remember the last time Seattle backed into the playoffs.
Orlando, meanwhile, have continued the club tradition of fading down the stretch (like Dallas in MLS 1.0-2.0). They went 4-5-8 down (most of) the season’s back nine, and those four wins were pretty damn chumpy - e.g. at home to Chicago, (crappy-period) Columbus, and (early-wounded) DC, plus a slim road win over Cincinnati, the unquestioned reigning pinata of MLS.
Given how wrong I’ve been lately - again, though the above five teams have quite a bit to do with that - the Decision Day games I haven’t already covered. Here goes:
FC Cincinnati v Atlanta United FC
Atlanta’s not great on the road (3-7-2), but Cincinnati’s just stunningly awful everywhere. Assuming no hiccups in the data, just one (1) win breaks a Murdered Row of Ls for Cincy over their past 15 games - that’s three points from 45. Atlanta will hit 51 points with a win and they should hang their heads in shame and self-flagellate for six hours, at a minimum, if they don't. And, for any Cincinnati fans with a yen for masochism, the thing to watch here are the goals allowed by Cincy: just four more and they break the single-season record set by…FC Cincinnati in 2019. Just…wow.
Club du Foot Montreal v Orlando City SC
The game that gives the lie to the theory behind Decision Day. Orlando has every reason to bunker, not least because Montreal can’t leap-frog them if they don’t win and neither DC or Columbus can catch them. Montreal, on the other hand, actually needs the win. For what it’s worth, here are their last 10 results at home, just the letters: WDWWLWLWDW. 6-2-2, not too fucking shabby, amirite? Maybe. Here’s the opposition on the home wins: Cincinnati (5-4, too), Red Bull, Toronto, Chicago, Atlanta and Houston. That’s wins over two playoff-marginal teams and some dregs. Montreal can’t be accused of a hot streak either, as they’ve gone 2-3-3 in their last eight games. In their favor: Orlando is a playoff-marginal team. I’m willing to give Montreal a 60-40 chance.
Nashville SC v Red Bull New York
Because only NYCFC can leap-frog ‘em, this game doesn’t mean much to Nashville - though they will end 2021 drawing literally half their games, regardless of what happens Sunday - but this game will define Red Bull’s season. Whether Orlando loses or draws, a win gives them what I’d call a damn good shot of jumping over them and puts them beyond the reach of everyone below them besides. With the total-wins tie-breaker on their side vis-à-vis Orlando, even a (fucking likely) draw opens a pretty clear path to the post-season for them.
New York City FC v Philadelphia Union
A Philly win counts as the only talking point here: they clinch second in the East with a W, though they’ve got a pretty goddamn good shot at it with a draw as well. NYCFC, meanwhile, probably needs the win to keep ahead of Atlanta, though, again, a draw will probably do just as well thanks to their edge in the games-won tie-breaker over both Atlanta and Orlando. A loss, on the other hand, and it’s not a crazy scenario, could dump as low as sixth…which would mean a re-match at Philly in the first round (if only by one kind of math). To pick up an asterisk above, * NYCFC’s late, three-game run has come at home against DC and Chicago (though the former was an absolute, high-low-all-‘round colonic) and, most recently, a road win over Miami. On the credit side, here’s NYCFC’s last 10 results at home: WWWWWDLDWW. I mean, sure, they drew Dallas at home, that was just three match-days after beating New England there, so…look, it can go either way easier than I break wind, but NYCFC have a wholly-real shot at 2nd or 3rd in the East. And, the more home games they get…
Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC
Both teams want a win - Colorado, for a shot at first in the West - something that would be pretty damn big for a money-ball team like them - LAFC as the one and only way they make the 2021 post-season. It took 29 games for LAFC to find their legs - they’re 3-0-2 in their last five, with four points on the road (three came from Dallas, who suck, but who forced road teams to drop points at twelve times out of 17 games) - which is tragic, if only for people who like Bob Bradley, and most people I follow on twitter don’t seem to. Commerce City is a tough rummage to find three points - just one team did it in 2021 (Austin, of all teams, back in Week 2…so effectively no one) - so it’ll take steady, arduous rubbing of the Blarney Stone to get LAFC into the playoffs.
Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake
Same as the above in two or more particulars - e.g., RSL’s bad on the road (4-10-2 to LAFC 4-9-3), they need the win to make it, and… - but they lack LAFC’s momentum. Hiccups aside, SKC has been solid. RSL needs a miracle now because they failed to play a good game against San Jose. SKC, given what’s above and below, look like the best bet to win the West.
Los Angeles Galaxy v Minnesota United FC
Given the state of goal differentials - Minnesota sits at -2, the Galaxy at -4, while RSL finds perfect balance at 0 - an RSL win directly threatens both teams; the Galaxy from multiple directions, but Minnesota could slip into the soup with a loss and wins by both RSL and LA. For that very reason, as in Montreal v Orlando, the Loons have some damned weighty motivations to play for the draw - not least among them the fact that (by my math) a draw will keep them up under any and all circumstances. Basically, all the heat for a win falls on LA. The question is, are they up to it? Their three wins over their last 16 games says no (16 points from 48, fwiw), but that 8-4-4 home record say yes. The edge should go to Minnesota’s motivation in this one.
Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle Sounders
As recently as six matchdays ago (aka, three days in MLS 2021-time), Seattle’s road record (still 9-4-3, btw) would have been a major talking point; I’d say the focus shifts now to Vancouver’s 10-4-2 home record. More to the point, the ‘Caps are 7-1-2 over their last 10 home games (DDWWWLWWWW), and they’ve got real wins in there - e.g., LAFC, RSL, Minnesota, and SKC, all playoff teams - plus a confident 3-0 win over San Jose. They’ve also gone 3-0-2 over their past five - with three of those games on the road (W at Portland, draws at San Jose and LAFC). This is Vancouver’s game to lose…which is also the only way they miss the 2021 post-season…
…and it took all that for me to see that the Vancouver Whitecaps are the hottest team in Major League Soccer heading into the playoffs.
We’ll see how I did (very briefly) Monday morning. Till then....
Columbus Crew SC v Chicago Fire FC
Club du Foot Montreal v Orlando City SC
Nashville SC v Red Bull New York
New England Revolution v Inter Miami CF
New York City FC v Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC v DC United
Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC
Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy v Minnesota United FC
Portland Timbers v Austin FC
San Jose Earthquakes v FC Dallas
Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle Sounders
There they are (barring typos), the final match-ups of Major League Soccer’s 26th(?) season (fuck it, I miss my own anniversary every year, as does my wife). For those wondering about how a 27-team league can have “everyone” play on the final day of the season, while playing only 13 games (as I did until further study), the Houston Dynamo have alreay eaten the hemlock on its 2021 season, splitting the twig with now-former head coach, Tab Ramos, who was let to go today. Or yesterday. Good dude, or least I always liked him. Cheers, Tab.
While I’ve got theories about who will win what in the above games, 1) that’s not the main theme of this post, and 2) I’ve been shit for predictions lately, so my best advice to anyone fishing for that would be to sit a chicken at the center of some arcane pattern with MLS logos, scatter around some feed, see where the chicken pecks, and bet accordingly.
Some of those games don’t matter, of course, and for a variety of reasons. With that in mind, consider the following unconsidered:
Columbus v Chicago
New England v Miami
Portland v Austin
San Jose v Dallas
If only the last match-up seems like a piss-away, allow me to explain the rest. In reverse order: Austin can’t reach the playoffs, and Portland can’t rise above or fall out of 4th in the West no matter what happens tomorrow; Miami’s already out and the Revs can’t catch the single-season record for total goals scored (they’re not even close), so who gives a shit?; despite being mathematically present, Columbus needs, not only to win, but to make up a goal differential of seven (7) to catch the Red Bulls, a team that has given up four goals in its last 10 games. Columbus deserves credit for ending 2021 on an up, but they’ve blown out of all one team all season - Miami, at home, Week 29 (4-0) - and they’ve won by more than two goals just three times all season long. In other words, drop $5 on them to reach the playoffs, and for the same reason people play the lottery.
For anyone wondering (again, I did till further study), DC has a barely plausible, yet uncomplicated path to the playoffs: if they win and Red Bull loses and Montreal loses or draws, they go in unimpeded. Their odds aren’t great - e.g., they’re crap on the road (2-10-4) and, though out of the playoffs and generally underwhelming, Toronto went 3-2-2 at home down the stretch, and against better teams than limping DC, but also Miami. To think, all DC had to do was beat Columbus at home last weekend…nope…
As for the rest…hold on, staring at the standings…okeh. Okeh. Okeh. Ready.
What I said about DC constitutes a mini-theme of the MLS 2021 Stretch-Run. A handful of teams in a couple set of circumstances had better-than-even opportunities to jockey into better positions for Decision Day, only to piss them away. For instance:
Atlanta
They drew their last two, at home against Toronto, then away to Red Bull. One win between those and they would have been a top four team with a breeze behind ‘em. (and I mean, actually would; NYCFC has had a run*, and they’re on 50 points to Atlanta’s 48).
Sporting KC
Back-to-back losses at Minnesota and Austin, out-scored 2-5 over the same. Yeah, yeah, they’re still only one point back in the race to win the West, but this was an 8-7-2 on the road team on the season, and they’d won four of the prior five games, including road wins at Dallas and Seattle.
Real Salt Lake
Two straight losses at home, first to (the already eliminated) San Jose, then a pithed-frog loss to Portland. The teams above (e.g., Minnesota, Vancouver and the Galaxy) have landed reasonable results over their last two games (the Galaxy picked up just one point, but those were road games at SKC and Seattle), which makes it fairly reasonable to say RSL would have been above all three with just one win from those two home games (thanks to the total wins tie-breaker), and one point clear had they beat San Jose and drew the Timbers. They didn’t and now they got work.
Seattle/Orlando
They might look like strange bedfellows, but, 1) both have picked up just one point from their last two games, and 2) that follows a larger pattern for both teams, even if the scale doesn’t line up. To wit:
Seattle: 0-3-2 in their last five, with the losses coming at home v SKC and at Houston and LAFC (a bad one); the draws came at Colorado and, again, at home against the Galaxy. I can’t remember the last time Seattle backed into the playoffs.
Orlando, meanwhile, have continued the club tradition of fading down the stretch (like Dallas in MLS 1.0-2.0). They went 4-5-8 down (most of) the season’s back nine, and those four wins were pretty damn chumpy - e.g. at home to Chicago, (crappy-period) Columbus, and (early-wounded) DC, plus a slim road win over Cincinnati, the unquestioned reigning pinata of MLS.
Given how wrong I’ve been lately - again, though the above five teams have quite a bit to do with that - the Decision Day games I haven’t already covered. Here goes:
FC Cincinnati v Atlanta United FC
Atlanta’s not great on the road (3-7-2), but Cincinnati’s just stunningly awful everywhere. Assuming no hiccups in the data, just one (1) win breaks a Murdered Row of Ls for Cincy over their past 15 games - that’s three points from 45. Atlanta will hit 51 points with a win and they should hang their heads in shame and self-flagellate for six hours, at a minimum, if they don't. And, for any Cincinnati fans with a yen for masochism, the thing to watch here are the goals allowed by Cincy: just four more and they break the single-season record set by…FC Cincinnati in 2019. Just…wow.
Club du Foot Montreal v Orlando City SC
The game that gives the lie to the theory behind Decision Day. Orlando has every reason to bunker, not least because Montreal can’t leap-frog them if they don’t win and neither DC or Columbus can catch them. Montreal, on the other hand, actually needs the win. For what it’s worth, here are their last 10 results at home, just the letters: WDWWLWLWDW. 6-2-2, not too fucking shabby, amirite? Maybe. Here’s the opposition on the home wins: Cincinnati (5-4, too), Red Bull, Toronto, Chicago, Atlanta and Houston. That’s wins over two playoff-marginal teams and some dregs. Montreal can’t be accused of a hot streak either, as they’ve gone 2-3-3 in their last eight games. In their favor: Orlando is a playoff-marginal team. I’m willing to give Montreal a 60-40 chance.
Nashville SC v Red Bull New York
Because only NYCFC can leap-frog ‘em, this game doesn’t mean much to Nashville - though they will end 2021 drawing literally half their games, regardless of what happens Sunday - but this game will define Red Bull’s season. Whether Orlando loses or draws, a win gives them what I’d call a damn good shot of jumping over them and puts them beyond the reach of everyone below them besides. With the total-wins tie-breaker on their side vis-à-vis Orlando, even a (fucking likely) draw opens a pretty clear path to the post-season for them.
New York City FC v Philadelphia Union
A Philly win counts as the only talking point here: they clinch second in the East with a W, though they’ve got a pretty goddamn good shot at it with a draw as well. NYCFC, meanwhile, probably needs the win to keep ahead of Atlanta, though, again, a draw will probably do just as well thanks to their edge in the games-won tie-breaker over both Atlanta and Orlando. A loss, on the other hand, and it’s not a crazy scenario, could dump as low as sixth…which would mean a re-match at Philly in the first round (if only by one kind of math). To pick up an asterisk above, * NYCFC’s late, three-game run has come at home against DC and Chicago (though the former was an absolute, high-low-all-‘round colonic) and, most recently, a road win over Miami. On the credit side, here’s NYCFC’s last 10 results at home: WWWWWDLDWW. I mean, sure, they drew Dallas at home, that was just three match-days after beating New England there, so…look, it can go either way easier than I break wind, but NYCFC have a wholly-real shot at 2nd or 3rd in the East. And, the more home games they get…
Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC
Both teams want a win - Colorado, for a shot at first in the West - something that would be pretty damn big for a money-ball team like them - LAFC as the one and only way they make the 2021 post-season. It took 29 games for LAFC to find their legs - they’re 3-0-2 in their last five, with four points on the road (three came from Dallas, who suck, but who forced road teams to drop points at twelve times out of 17 games) - which is tragic, if only for people who like Bob Bradley, and most people I follow on twitter don’t seem to. Commerce City is a tough rummage to find three points - just one team did it in 2021 (Austin, of all teams, back in Week 2…so effectively no one) - so it’ll take steady, arduous rubbing of the Blarney Stone to get LAFC into the playoffs.
Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake
Same as the above in two or more particulars - e.g., RSL’s bad on the road (4-10-2 to LAFC 4-9-3), they need the win to make it, and… - but they lack LAFC’s momentum. Hiccups aside, SKC has been solid. RSL needs a miracle now because they failed to play a good game against San Jose. SKC, given what’s above and below, look like the best bet to win the West.
Los Angeles Galaxy v Minnesota United FC
Given the state of goal differentials - Minnesota sits at -2, the Galaxy at -4, while RSL finds perfect balance at 0 - an RSL win directly threatens both teams; the Galaxy from multiple directions, but Minnesota could slip into the soup with a loss and wins by both RSL and LA. For that very reason, as in Montreal v Orlando, the Loons have some damned weighty motivations to play for the draw - not least among them the fact that (by my math) a draw will keep them up under any and all circumstances. Basically, all the heat for a win falls on LA. The question is, are they up to it? Their three wins over their last 16 games says no (16 points from 48, fwiw), but that 8-4-4 home record say yes. The edge should go to Minnesota’s motivation in this one.
Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle Sounders
As recently as six matchdays ago (aka, three days in MLS 2021-time), Seattle’s road record (still 9-4-3, btw) would have been a major talking point; I’d say the focus shifts now to Vancouver’s 10-4-2 home record. More to the point, the ‘Caps are 7-1-2 over their last 10 home games (DDWWWLWWWW), and they’ve got real wins in there - e.g., LAFC, RSL, Minnesota, and SKC, all playoff teams - plus a confident 3-0 win over San Jose. They’ve also gone 3-0-2 over their past five - with three of those games on the road (W at Portland, draws at San Jose and LAFC). This is Vancouver’s game to lose…which is also the only way they miss the 2021 post-season…
…and it took all that for me to see that the Vancouver Whitecaps are the hottest team in Major League Soccer heading into the playoffs.
We’ll see how I did (very briefly) Monday morning. Till then....
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