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| Shit. That's not the future. It's glaucoma... |
The first I’ll do is congratulate Major League Soccer for finally navigating the post-season and the international break closer to right. Can’t believe it took ‘em this damn long to get rid of the annual momentum-suffocating break, but, better late the never, I suppose.
Moving onto the main feature, I won’t pretend to have any great insights on how the first-round of the 2021 MLS playoffs will shake out. In fact, I don’t have more to share than stray data points and borrowed insights - e.g., Matt Doyle’s “why they will, why they won’t” playoff preview and Joseph Lowery’s post on X-factors for each team; and I reference both heavily below with “D” standing for a note from Doyle and “L” standing for a note from Lowery - but, what I read in those tells me I have a fair enough grasp on general trends across the league, and I dig talking things out and that’s a fair summary for what comes below in this post.
And so, without further ado, and starting with the big match-up closest to where I live, here goes.
Portland Timbers v Minnesota United FC
2021 Head-to-Head: Well, shit. Two wins for Minnesota, zero for the Timbers, and with a 3-1 edge. If it makes anyone feel better, both came during Portland’s early, uneven phase.
Down the Stretch, Portland: WWWWLLLWWW (6 home, 4 away); best result: 2-1 at LAFC; worst result: 2-3 v Vancouver
Down the Stretch, Minnesota: WLDLWWDLWD (5 home, 5 away); best result: in context, the 3-3 draw at the Galaxy; worst result: 1-3 loss at DC
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
D re Minnesota: “…it’s worth remembering the heater Kevin Molino was on last year. He was the one taking those gaps Reynoso carved into opposing defenses and turning them into chasms, and then turning that into goals.”
D re Portland: “This is very obviously a veteran team that’s entirely comfortable with the idea of flipping the switch when they need to…”
D re Portland: To paraphrase, Portland’s fullbacks take too many risks and Portland’s centerbacks are merely “adequate.”
What I Expect
A close, low-scoring, probably ugly game, honestly, which here means I’m open to food dares if either team wins by two goals. All in all, the 0-1 home loss back in July presents the likeliest template. I expect Minnesota to force Portland to play and look to Reynoso for the open-field back-breaker; second option, a put-back off a corner the Timbers just can’t clear. In Portland’s favor, they haven’t suffered a truly lopsided loss since August (see the 2-6 loss to Seattle in (fucking) Portland), and, apart from the collapse against Vancouver, they haven’t allowed more than three goals in a game since mid-August, and they’ve only allowed two goals twice over the same period. Better, they’ve scored 29 goals over the same period, while allowing only 11: short version, Minnesota will face a different Timbers team this Sunday than the one they played in July and, for all the literally incredible good he’s done, it wasn’t all Blanco. Going the other way, and fretting a little, the Timbers also played a pretty soft schedule down the stretch, and their most impressive wins came against teams they just seemed to pair well against - e.g., LAFC and (especially RSL).
Put it this way: Portland doesn’t have the clearest path to MLS Cup, but, if the unlikely event they get there, their heads will be in a fucking fabulous place.
Now for the rest. And, don’t worry, they won’t go on as long. Half of this amounts to leg-work to figure out which other games I want to watch. I’m a little excited about this year’s playoffs.
Philadelphia Union v Red Bull New York
2021 Head-to-Head: Two 1-1 draws and one 1-0 win, which went to Philly…and that’s the preview…I kid, I kid.
Down the Stretch, Philly: WDWWDLWDWD (4 home, 6 away); best result: 3-0 over Columbus; worst result: 2-2 draw at Toronto
Down the Stretch, Red Bull: WDWWWWLWDD (5 home, 5 away); best result: 2-1 win at Columbus; worst result: not much to choose from, so the road loss at DC, I guess
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
L re Philly: He likes Jakob Glesnes’ line-breaking passes to short-circuit the Red Bull press.
D re Philly: He doesn’t see a lot of game-winners in the line-up.
D re RBNY (and this is great): “Since mid-September they are 7W-1L-4D…During that span they have forced literally every team they’ve played into an Energy Drink Soccer deathmatch.”
What I Expect
Something even uglier than Portland v Minnesota. For all Red Bull’s momentum, the only loss in the 2021 season series came in Philly - and Philly’s pretty damn stout defensively, too. Just about everything turns on whether the Union can knock New Jersey on their heels and pick ‘em apart. I don’t see that given Red Bulls’ form, but hope for something better than hate-watching a game springs eternal…
Shit. At this point, that’s two games that look like solid bets to go to penalty kicks. No wonder I deleted the sentence about feeling excited about the 2021 MLS playoffs….
Sporting Kansas City v Vancouver Whitecaps
2021 Head-to-Head: Traded blows, one win each; an early 3-0 home win for SKC, then a late 2-1 home win for Vancouver
Down the Stretch, SKC: WLWWLWWLLL (5 home, 5 away); best result: the 2-1 win at Seattle, which made them look lethal; worst result(s): they’ve got two home losses in their last 10, 1-2 versus a pre-swoon Seattle and 0-1 versus RSL on Decision Day
Down the Stretch, Vancouver: WDWLWWDWDD (5 home, 5 away); best result: either the 3-2 win at Portland, or the above-noted 2-1 win over SKC; worst result: Because they don’t really have one…the goal-less draw in Houston?
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
L re Vancouver: Gauld is their X-factor - and what they didn’t have in the last duel
D re SKC: As much as he their designated/star players (Pulido, Russell, Salloi and…Kinda) for boasting the 2nd-best league-wide production behind the Revs, he’s not sure SKC can go the distance without Pulido. Who won’t be all there.
What I Expect
This is probably the one I’ll watch, less because I’m confident it’ll be a good game, but because I have no damn idea what will happen. The ‘Caps have been a helpful combination of good and stubborn down the stretch, picking up 10 points from 15 against playoff teams. Put it this way: if I had to pick the likeliest team to fall apart, I’d go with SKC; if I had to pick the likeliest team to win….......………..shit. Fragility factor aside, I’m calling this one even.
New York City FC v Atlanta United FC
2021 Head-to-Head: A 1-0 win for NYC in June and a 1-1 draw at Atlanta in October
Down the Stretch, NYCFC: DLLDLDWWWD (5 home, 5 away); best result: 6-0 win over DC; worst result: going with the home draws versus Nashville and Philly, for showing its possible
Down the Stretch, Atlanta: WLWLWDWDDW (5 home, 5 away); best result: going with the goal-less draw at Red Bull in Week 33; worst result: the 0-1 loss at Philly, because Philly and NYC strike me as similar enough.
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
L re General: He thinks Atlanta should start Franco Ibarra and I don’t know how that is, but Lowery says he’s a better destroyer than he is a passer
D on NYC: They’re without Keaton Parks and Anton Tinnerholm, and maybe even Callens
D on Atlanta: “Atlanta went 1W-6L-8D with a -4 goal differential against playoff teams this year.”
D on Atlanta: He pointed out that Martinez, Barco and Araujo have yet to function as a unit and that seems both wise and true.
What I Expect
Atlanta has grinded out a decent road record (4-6-7), but I’ll still be stunned if they get through, even with the absences. Not having Tinnerholm will hurt the attack, which means this one could turn into…sigh, another grind, with NYC struggling to break down Atlanta, and Atlanta struggling to cut NYC on the break. Best case, NYC scores first and the game opens up. A goal-fest would do nicely.
Nashville SC v Orlando City SC
2021 Head-to-Head: You’re not going believe this, not with Nashville in the mix, but all three games ended in draws. On the plus side, the last one in Nashville was a 2-2 “thriller.”
Down the Stretch, Nashville: WDDDDDLWDD (3 home, 7 away); best result: um….nothing stands out, honestly; worst result: the fact their last three home games were draws, without question
Down the Stretch, Orlando: LLDWWDDLDW (4 home, 6 away); best result: the Week 34 road win over Montreal, no question; worst result: it feels strange to say this, but I’m not sure they’ve had one; 2-3-1 on the road ain’t great, but it hardly spells doom.
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
L re Orlando: This one felt like a stretch, but Lowery noted that Nashville - who doesn’t leave a lot of openings - gives up most their chances from the left side of the attacking third, so he thought Emmanuel Mas might have a game. Related, that’s where Nani operates, and he’s rested.
D re Nashville: because they don’t give up a lot, the game could turn on something headline-simple as how Hany Mukhtar performs.
What I Expect
Before I sat down and took it all in, I counted Orlando as one the better bets to leave early. Now that I have…I’m less sure. Nashville’s last two wins came on the road and against shit teams - e.g., Miami and Cincinnati. At this point, I’ve moved on to liking Orlando’s chances to get on the right side of a 1-0, not least because Nashville hasn’t pitched a shut-out in five match days and I think that’s their best shot to resolve the situation before penalty kicks.
Seattle Sounders v Real Salt Lake
2021 Head-to-Head: They split the series with the home team winning both teams; 2-1 in Seattle and 1-0 in Utah
Down the Stretch, Seattle: WWWWLDLLDD (4 home, 6 away); best result: call it a toss up between the 3-0 home win over Colorado or the 4-1 home win over Vancouver the next week; worst result: the general loss of momentum across their last six games
Down the Stretch, RSL: WLWLWLWLLW (5 home, 5 away); best result: Decision Day’s 1-0 win over SKC, because that’s what they’ll need; worst result: any game against the Timbers, apparently.
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
L re General: Lowery called an open game the X-factor and, based on what I know about Mastroeni’s RSL team, fans and neutral should expect one.
D re Seattle: “They also have the best defense in the West, the best d-mid in the league (Joao Paulo) and damn man, it’s the Sounders.”
D re Seattle: “Only 13 teams in MLS history have managed both 60 points and a +20 goal differential in a single season (props to Jeremiah Oshan for digging that one up). The Sounders got there for the first time in club history this year.”
What I Expect
That last stat feels misplaced because it tallies data over the entire season, while overlooking the fact Seattle started wonderfully, only to sputter, then fade down the stretch. Which, it bears pointing out, is not like them. Still, the note on defensively stability holds: Seattle has allowed just fewer than 1.0 goals per game, which puts them in a three-way tie for fewest goals allowed in MLS in 2021. That slipped a bit down the stretch, when they hit 1.3 goals allowed down the stretch, but RSL doesn’t look like the team to punish the relapse, at least not without opening themselves up for a slaughter at the back. I’ve heard rumbles of Lodeiro and Morris returning and that would only make it worse.
And so, to summarize: I only expect two teams to go out - Real Salt Lake and Atlanta - and everything else feels either too close or too confusing to call…fat lot of help I’ve been.
I’ll circle back to talk about how at least one of these games shook out. Till then….
Moving onto the main feature, I won’t pretend to have any great insights on how the first-round of the 2021 MLS playoffs will shake out. In fact, I don’t have more to share than stray data points and borrowed insights - e.g., Matt Doyle’s “why they will, why they won’t” playoff preview and Joseph Lowery’s post on X-factors for each team; and I reference both heavily below with “D” standing for a note from Doyle and “L” standing for a note from Lowery - but, what I read in those tells me I have a fair enough grasp on general trends across the league, and I dig talking things out and that’s a fair summary for what comes below in this post.
And so, without further ado, and starting with the big match-up closest to where I live, here goes.
Portland Timbers v Minnesota United FC
2021 Head-to-Head: Well, shit. Two wins for Minnesota, zero for the Timbers, and with a 3-1 edge. If it makes anyone feel better, both came during Portland’s early, uneven phase.
Down the Stretch, Portland: WWWWLLLWWW (6 home, 4 away); best result: 2-1 at LAFC; worst result: 2-3 v Vancouver
Down the Stretch, Minnesota: WLDLWWDLWD (5 home, 5 away); best result: in context, the 3-3 draw at the Galaxy; worst result: 1-3 loss at DC
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
D re Minnesota: “…it’s worth remembering the heater Kevin Molino was on last year. He was the one taking those gaps Reynoso carved into opposing defenses and turning them into chasms, and then turning that into goals.”
D re Portland: “This is very obviously a veteran team that’s entirely comfortable with the idea of flipping the switch when they need to…”
D re Portland: To paraphrase, Portland’s fullbacks take too many risks and Portland’s centerbacks are merely “adequate.”
What I Expect
A close, low-scoring, probably ugly game, honestly, which here means I’m open to food dares if either team wins by two goals. All in all, the 0-1 home loss back in July presents the likeliest template. I expect Minnesota to force Portland to play and look to Reynoso for the open-field back-breaker; second option, a put-back off a corner the Timbers just can’t clear. In Portland’s favor, they haven’t suffered a truly lopsided loss since August (see the 2-6 loss to Seattle in (fucking) Portland), and, apart from the collapse against Vancouver, they haven’t allowed more than three goals in a game since mid-August, and they’ve only allowed two goals twice over the same period. Better, they’ve scored 29 goals over the same period, while allowing only 11: short version, Minnesota will face a different Timbers team this Sunday than the one they played in July and, for all the literally incredible good he’s done, it wasn’t all Blanco. Going the other way, and fretting a little, the Timbers also played a pretty soft schedule down the stretch, and their most impressive wins came against teams they just seemed to pair well against - e.g., LAFC and (especially RSL).
Put it this way: Portland doesn’t have the clearest path to MLS Cup, but, if the unlikely event they get there, their heads will be in a fucking fabulous place.
Now for the rest. And, don’t worry, they won’t go on as long. Half of this amounts to leg-work to figure out which other games I want to watch. I’m a little excited about this year’s playoffs.
Philadelphia Union v Red Bull New York
2021 Head-to-Head: Two 1-1 draws and one 1-0 win, which went to Philly…and that’s the preview…I kid, I kid.
Down the Stretch, Philly: WDWWDLWDWD (4 home, 6 away); best result: 3-0 over Columbus; worst result: 2-2 draw at Toronto
Down the Stretch, Red Bull: WDWWWWLWDD (5 home, 5 away); best result: 2-1 win at Columbus; worst result: not much to choose from, so the road loss at DC, I guess
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
L re Philly: He likes Jakob Glesnes’ line-breaking passes to short-circuit the Red Bull press.
D re Philly: He doesn’t see a lot of game-winners in the line-up.
D re RBNY (and this is great): “Since mid-September they are 7W-1L-4D…During that span they have forced literally every team they’ve played into an Energy Drink Soccer deathmatch.”
What I Expect
Something even uglier than Portland v Minnesota. For all Red Bull’s momentum, the only loss in the 2021 season series came in Philly - and Philly’s pretty damn stout defensively, too. Just about everything turns on whether the Union can knock New Jersey on their heels and pick ‘em apart. I don’t see that given Red Bulls’ form, but hope for something better than hate-watching a game springs eternal…
Shit. At this point, that’s two games that look like solid bets to go to penalty kicks. No wonder I deleted the sentence about feeling excited about the 2021 MLS playoffs….
Sporting Kansas City v Vancouver Whitecaps
2021 Head-to-Head: Traded blows, one win each; an early 3-0 home win for SKC, then a late 2-1 home win for Vancouver
Down the Stretch, SKC: WLWWLWWLLL (5 home, 5 away); best result: the 2-1 win at Seattle, which made them look lethal; worst result(s): they’ve got two home losses in their last 10, 1-2 versus a pre-swoon Seattle and 0-1 versus RSL on Decision Day
Down the Stretch, Vancouver: WDWLWWDWDD (5 home, 5 away); best result: either the 3-2 win at Portland, or the above-noted 2-1 win over SKC; worst result: Because they don’t really have one…the goal-less draw in Houston?
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
L re Vancouver: Gauld is their X-factor - and what they didn’t have in the last duel
D re SKC: As much as he their designated/star players (Pulido, Russell, Salloi and…Kinda) for boasting the 2nd-best league-wide production behind the Revs, he’s not sure SKC can go the distance without Pulido. Who won’t be all there.
What I Expect
This is probably the one I’ll watch, less because I’m confident it’ll be a good game, but because I have no damn idea what will happen. The ‘Caps have been a helpful combination of good and stubborn down the stretch, picking up 10 points from 15 against playoff teams. Put it this way: if I had to pick the likeliest team to fall apart, I’d go with SKC; if I had to pick the likeliest team to win….......………..shit. Fragility factor aside, I’m calling this one even.
New York City FC v Atlanta United FC
2021 Head-to-Head: A 1-0 win for NYC in June and a 1-1 draw at Atlanta in October
Down the Stretch, NYCFC: DLLDLDWWWD (5 home, 5 away); best result: 6-0 win over DC; worst result: going with the home draws versus Nashville and Philly, for showing its possible
Down the Stretch, Atlanta: WLWLWDWDDW (5 home, 5 away); best result: going with the goal-less draw at Red Bull in Week 33; worst result: the 0-1 loss at Philly, because Philly and NYC strike me as similar enough.
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
L re General: He thinks Atlanta should start Franco Ibarra and I don’t know how that is, but Lowery says he’s a better destroyer than he is a passer
D on NYC: They’re without Keaton Parks and Anton Tinnerholm, and maybe even Callens
D on Atlanta: “Atlanta went 1W-6L-8D with a -4 goal differential against playoff teams this year.”
D on Atlanta: He pointed out that Martinez, Barco and Araujo have yet to function as a unit and that seems both wise and true.
What I Expect
Atlanta has grinded out a decent road record (4-6-7), but I’ll still be stunned if they get through, even with the absences. Not having Tinnerholm will hurt the attack, which means this one could turn into…sigh, another grind, with NYC struggling to break down Atlanta, and Atlanta struggling to cut NYC on the break. Best case, NYC scores first and the game opens up. A goal-fest would do nicely.
Nashville SC v Orlando City SC
2021 Head-to-Head: You’re not going believe this, not with Nashville in the mix, but all three games ended in draws. On the plus side, the last one in Nashville was a 2-2 “thriller.”
Down the Stretch, Nashville: WDDDDDLWDD (3 home, 7 away); best result: um….nothing stands out, honestly; worst result: the fact their last three home games were draws, without question
Down the Stretch, Orlando: LLDWWDDLDW (4 home, 6 away); best result: the Week 34 road win over Montreal, no question; worst result: it feels strange to say this, but I’m not sure they’ve had one; 2-3-1 on the road ain’t great, but it hardly spells doom.
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
L re Orlando: This one felt like a stretch, but Lowery noted that Nashville - who doesn’t leave a lot of openings - gives up most their chances from the left side of the attacking third, so he thought Emmanuel Mas might have a game. Related, that’s where Nani operates, and he’s rested.
D re Nashville: because they don’t give up a lot, the game could turn on something headline-simple as how Hany Mukhtar performs.
What I Expect
Before I sat down and took it all in, I counted Orlando as one the better bets to leave early. Now that I have…I’m less sure. Nashville’s last two wins came on the road and against shit teams - e.g., Miami and Cincinnati. At this point, I’ve moved on to liking Orlando’s chances to get on the right side of a 1-0, not least because Nashville hasn’t pitched a shut-out in five match days and I think that’s their best shot to resolve the situation before penalty kicks.
Seattle Sounders v Real Salt Lake
2021 Head-to-Head: They split the series with the home team winning both teams; 2-1 in Seattle and 1-0 in Utah
Down the Stretch, Seattle: WWWWLDLLDD (4 home, 6 away); best result: call it a toss up between the 3-0 home win over Colorado or the 4-1 home win over Vancouver the next week; worst result: the general loss of momentum across their last six games
Down the Stretch, RSL: WLWLWLWLLW (5 home, 5 away); best result: Decision Day’s 1-0 win over SKC, because that’s what they’ll need; worst result: any game against the Timbers, apparently.
Notes from MLS’ In-House Hacks
L re General: Lowery called an open game the X-factor and, based on what I know about Mastroeni’s RSL team, fans and neutral should expect one.
D re Seattle: “They also have the best defense in the West, the best d-mid in the league (Joao Paulo) and damn man, it’s the Sounders.”
D re Seattle: “Only 13 teams in MLS history have managed both 60 points and a +20 goal differential in a single season (props to Jeremiah Oshan for digging that one up). The Sounders got there for the first time in club history this year.”
What I Expect
That last stat feels misplaced because it tallies data over the entire season, while overlooking the fact Seattle started wonderfully, only to sputter, then fade down the stretch. Which, it bears pointing out, is not like them. Still, the note on defensively stability holds: Seattle has allowed just fewer than 1.0 goals per game, which puts them in a three-way tie for fewest goals allowed in MLS in 2021. That slipped a bit down the stretch, when they hit 1.3 goals allowed down the stretch, but RSL doesn’t look like the team to punish the relapse, at least not without opening themselves up for a slaughter at the back. I’ve heard rumbles of Lodeiro and Morris returning and that would only make it worse.
And so, to summarize: I only expect two teams to go out - Real Salt Lake and Atlanta - and everything else feels either too close or too confusing to call…fat lot of help I’ve been.
I’ll circle back to talk about how at least one of these games shook out. Till then….
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