Monday, November 15, 2021

A 2021 Major League Soccer Review, in Which I Circle Back to My Predictions

Revisiting my preseason predictions.
On April 4, 2021, I wrote a loosely predictive post about how all 27 teams in the league would fare over the whole damn regular season.

This post revisits that post.

I retained the groupings from the original post - The Good, The Middling, and Mystery Meat - as a kind of Route One to sorting out how much or how little any given team’s season surprised me. And I agree that makes no goddamn sense, but, once committed, etc. 2021 did throw me a couple curves, but they’re both more subtle and hittable than I expected when I banged out the original post with one good eye on the page.

With that in mind, what trippingly unspools below is a list of every team in MLS, in the order I organized them back in April (and, no, I don’t remember the rationale for the way I organized them, and deleted all the relevant information to boot). In most cases, the words you see after “[2021] Overall [Prediction]” in connection with every team below is a complete, unedited version of the comments in that preview post. The notes after “How That Panned Out” assesses how well my prediction held up, if with some gentle fudging…which sounds gross and wrong now that I’ve typed it.

With that, let’s review how I did.

The Good
Atlanta United FC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I expect Atlanta to compete in the East, and in general, in 2021."
How That Panned Out: Anyone fishing for a reason to feel impressed should recall that Atlanta dumped the potentially sociopathic Gabriel Heinze just last July, because I didn’t see his mad reign coming, but they overcame and made the 2021 playoffs with the talent that was always there. They didn’t exactly kill down the stretch, but they look/feel respectably competitive.

Columbus Crew SC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "They still have to rank among the favorites to repeat, so anything short of close to that will look like a fail. Given the above, a slow start wouldn’t throw me too much…"
How That Panned Out: File this under a case of, name one person who saw this coming. If Caleb Porter didn’t have the, “the teams I coach to a championship will miss the playoffs the next season” curse, I’d call this impossible to explain.

FC Dallas
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I’m a combination of high (as a sporting neutral) and worried (as a Timbers fan) about Dallas this season. I’m somewhat confident they’ll be hell to score against, so, if they get their own scoring on line…look out."
How That Panned Out: Was this my biggest miss? I’m going with “yes,” if only because I don’t think the season saw any point where Dallas looked relevant. Like late-night Chinese, it still hurts even if you forgot eating it. Think I bit too hard on the Paxton Pomykal revival and/or the DP/TAM signings, but also them knocking the Timbers out of the 2020 playoffs.

Los Angeles FC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "They’ll compete, they’ll make the playoffs, they should even go deep, but I haven’t seen them do anything that signals they’ve moved the stuff they’ve tripped over in the past."
How That Panned Out: Dear gods, how badly I misread the West. Sure, there were months without Carlos Vela, there was the distraction of Diego Rossi’s departure, but there was also a not-nearly-good-enough defense, and too many good, missed setups for that uncut gem, Jose Cifuentes, who was influential/talismanic, and in too many wrong ways.

Minnesota United FC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I’d be stunned if they don’t make the playoffs, but less stunned if they make the semifinals."
How That Panned Out: As with Columbus, when I saw the Loons return most (if not nearlyall) of the roster that gave Seattle a powerful scare in the 2020 playoffs (that is before Seattle flipped the table and ran away with it), more of the same felt like the right call. Instead, Minnesota had an uneven season that saw them in a cage-match for the playoff lives to the end of the season. There but for the grace of Reynoso, etc.

New England Revolution
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I expect them to be in the mix at the top of the East…which suddenly seems tighter as I’m typing this out…"
How That Panned Out: Real short, no, I did not see a record-breaking Supporters’ Shield season coming. The bitter young(ish) man I was, the hopeful young sports fan who sat through every New England flame-out back in the mid-2000s, is dying to see the Revs win it all…unless they wind up playing the Timbers in MLS Cup. But even then I’d be very happy for them, because they paid their dues at usurious interest.

Orlando City SC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I’ve got four teams listed as 'good' in the East so far and I’m not even done yet. Still, I expect Orlando will play at the top end of the mix."
How That Panned Out: This prediction held up brilliantly over the first dozen games or so of the season. That kept them amidst the East’s better company for a time, but the draws and losses piled up from there, which put them in the scrum for the last playoff spots in the East. They made it, of course, and with a little breathing room, but Orlando looks like a better bet to revert to their historical norm of falling apart down the stretch.

Portland Timbers
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I see the 2021 Timbers as a very good team that’s living on borrowed time…which might weigh them down enough to render them simply good. Keep your own counsel, but I will not stop worrying about this till they give me reason not to."
How That Panned Out: I’ll admit the home team gave me one hell of a scare at the middle of the season, but then Blanco came back, Diego Chara somehow found another year in his (allegedly) aging legs, and the defense sorted out one fucking vicious case of the yips. And Dairon Asprilla finally had the career season his super-fans predicted…and a little like people predicting the end of the world. Just sayin’. Better season than I expected overall, though. Happy camper.

Seattle Sounders
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "…the hole left by Jordan Morris does bear watching. That and the fact they shed a couple key pieces in the off-season (see Miami, where Joevin Jones and Kelvin Leerdam landed, plus Gustav Svensson). Look, nobody would enjoy (and, curiously, celebrate) seeing Seattle suffer quite like me, but counting them out is like assuming a serial killer is dead just because you stabbed him (or her)."
How That Panned Out: The Sounders played most of the year without Jordan Morris and Nico Lodeiro and also flipped the script by starting strong. In a total break with tradition, they stumbled down the stretch and wound up losing a Western Conference title that looked like theirs for the taking. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle backing into the post-season for the first time.

Sporting Kansas City
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "SKC was good last year and they seemed to have plugged some weaknesses. As such, the long-term looks all right."
How That Panned Out: This…mostly panned out. SKC is lethal on their day, but the way they lost their last three games of 2021 (at Minnesota, at Austin(?!), and v RSL) speaks to, 1) why they didn’t win the West, and 2) a puzzling, latent fragility.

The Middling
Chicago Fire FC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "While I’m very much on wait and see with Chicago, I’ll [only] expect great things after they’ve conditioned me to do so."
How That Panned Out: And…yep, I got suckered by fancy DP signings. Again. Chicago continued its seemingly eternal wandering down and across paths of mediocrity. Bottom line: never believe in a men’s soccer team from Chicago until they prove it on the field.

Colorado Rapids
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "Probably playoff competitive and rarely an easy out but I’m certainly not expecting anything."
How That Panned Out: After the Revolution, I’d call Colorado one of the great, happy surprises of 2021 (as opposed to, say, Columbus, an unhappy surprise…unless you’re a Cincinnati fan and you celebrate the suffering of your compatriot).

DC United
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "They’re a little like Chicago, in that I’ve got used to them being bad. As such, it’ll take some convincing."
How That Panned Out: They started the season with a new coach…who accused all the players of being overweight/out of shape in the first weeks of the season. They wound up convincing me down the stretch - as the record shows, I kept calling them good bets for the playoffs - only for a loud choking sound to rise from Audi Field. DC missed the 2021 post-season and has another off-season of staring at the drawing board.

Los Angeles Galaxy
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I’m starting to wonder if they even have an operating front office…expectations are other than high."
How That Panned Out: The Galaxy started stronger than (I think) anyone expected, behind Chicharito taking an early lead in the Golden Boot race. All that seemed to confirm new head coach Greg Vanney’s genius until it all very, very much didn’t. They got a gut-punch mid-season in the form of a winless streak that wouldn’t end; they came close enough to rescuing the season to be in the playoff mix until Decision Day, but the damage was done and/or fatal.

Inter Miami CF
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "This could be my primary candidate for giving FC Cincy a dead body to stand on. At long last."
How That Panned Out: Miami wound up missing by quite a bit - and they gave me one of my favorite moments of the 2021 season when Phil Neville suggested a referee’s conspiracy against his team (what is it about Florida?) - but, GOLLY, did they make a mockery of my “dead body” prediction - or is that on Cincinnati? And yet, the rest of the league was right to only take them seriously as spoilers.

Nashville SC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "They’re here because I don’t see greatness, but dour competence."
How That Panned Out: For all the flashes from Hany Mukhtar, their 18 ties - that’s over half their games for those counting at home - made this prediction hold up better than most.

Red Bull New York
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I miss the glory days enough that I could be pegging them lower than they should go, but…I’m also not seeing a case for optimism."
How That Panned Out: After a dismal start to the season, Red Bull bullied their way into the 2021 playoffs, if barely. Because they reverted back to Red Bull-ball, I accept that I pegged them lower than I should have.

Real Salt Lake
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I think they’ll struggle for another season at least. The question is, how hard?"
How That Panned Out: Between all the owner-less chaos off the field, and Damir Kreilach leading them on it, RSL became my sympathy rooting interest for the 2021 season. Their last-gasp win over SKC on Decision Day deserves to stick around as one of 2021’s best stories.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: Given my overall thoughts about the Western Conference (SCARY), I think it’ll take something special to get Vancouver even into the playoff mix. Too many teams are too far ahead of them.
How That Panned Out: The ‘Caps found just enough, very likely thanks to landing Ryan Gauld, the playmaker they’ve needed for the past several seasons. After a nothing start, Vancouver has revived as a solid, tricky team.

Mystery Meat
Austin FC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lingering around the playoff line by season’s end, but, again, I’m expecting a war in the West in 2021."
How That Panned Out: If Austin could host the Timbers all season long, OH, the possibilities. They didn’t, of course, and despite playing a fairly eye-catching style, Texas’ new kids fell WELL short (as in 17 points out) of the playoff picture and never really looked like they’d squeeze into it.

FC Cincinnati
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "Squeaking into the playoffs at the high-end, avoiding last place at the low-end. At this point, the bar’s low enough that I’ll cheer if they show up to games with their shirts and shorts on right."
How That Panned Out: Very badly, which, here, means like complete and utter shit. Dead-last in MLS. Again. Lots of blown money, lots of angry, exhausted fans, etc.

Houston Dynamo
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "...the few people I read like Houston’s rebuild, and that’s they’re mystery meat (anything can happen) instead of middling (which means I expect nothing major in any direction). Honestly, I expect them to hang with Austin."
How That Panned Out: Houston did, in fact, hang with Austin - i.e., at no point did they look anything like a playoff team in 2021.

Club du Foot Montreal
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I still think Montreal is going through some proverbial shit and, as such, I’m not terribly optimistic about their chances in 2021."
How That Panned Out: People saw the outlines of a Montreal revival from (roughly) early in the summer and that continued almost to the end of the season. Done in by their own erraticism. Among the most aptly-named in the “mystery meat” category.

New York City FC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "It’s questions about onboarding new players that keeps them down here, but they’re likely the best of this bunch."
How That Panned Out: As it happens, NYCFC proved to be the second best of this bunch. To borrow phrasing that has become the rage of the 2020s, the numbers love them - and they were capable of the odd, eye-catching, hope-stirring win - but they also came damned close to going into the post-season outside the top seeds. Again, “mystery meat” was a decent fit.

Philadelphia Union
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "I don’t know why it 'stopped working,' but sometimes a team gets in its own way."
How That Panned Out: They finished the second-best team in an erratic Eastern Conference and, like NYCFC, showed they could beat both the teams they should and just about any team on the right day. Still, 2021 wasn’t much like their Shield-winning 2020 season.

San Jose Earthquakes
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: "Personally, I’d be stunned if they don’t improve, but until they do…"
How That Panned Out: And…that hesitation paid off. They stayed respectable to the end, but the ‘Quakes wound up missing the post-season by a fair spread and it looks like something needs to change before that does.

Toronto FC
[2021] Overall [Prediction]: I think I’m mostly waiting to see what happens when Michael Bradley craps all the way out. On the other hand, they have a sound system - even if they’ve got another guy (Chris Armas) running it - and that should carry them through another season.
How That Panned Out: If the world needed confirmation that Armas ain’t a great coach, they got it when he got canned (less than?) halfway through the season. The Reds improved down the stretch, but they still finished between Cincinnati and Chicago, and lower in points than the whole damn Western Conference, so, no, not a good season in Ontario.

And there it is, the smart guesses and blown assumptions all in one post. For all the projections I missed (some comically badly), I’d argue that, between caveats and sloppy phrasing, I landed more than I missed. Looking forward to the 2021 post-season and trying the same stupid shit going into 2022.

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