2021 MLS Cup Preview: The Timbers Game to Lose, but Let's Count the Ways

“I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part.”
“And we’re just the guys to do it.”
- Animal House, Whoever Wrote It, and, Yes, I Love that Damn Movie.

I like to think this site has a long tradition of doing excessive, even silly things at least once a season. With the Portland Timbers not just playing in its third MLS Cup, but hosting it as well, it felt like an occasion to really ratchet the excessive and silly to a whole new level. I’ll close this post with some general thoughts, but first, I decided to sit down and watch every goal scored or allowed in 2021 by the team that stands between the Timbers and the 2021 MLS Cup: New York City FC. Call it an attempt to figure out where the blows might come from, even if I’m powerless to do anything about it…

…and, full disclosure, I skipped the last three games of the regular season, and for reasons that will beccome clear when I talk big picture, and also totally forgot NYCFC played Atlanta United FC in the first round of the 2021 post-season, but, I did look at every goal besides that. Which is to say, I spent a stupid amount of time reviewing video for a guy with a tiny platform. And yet, here is my report.

To start with the big picture, NYCFC allowed just 36 goals during the regular season, plus five more during the playoffs, making them the 6th cleanest defense in Major League Soccer. Related, only two teams - the New England Revolution and Nashville SC - had a better regular season goal differential (+24 and +22, respectively), while NYC tied with the Seattle Sounders at third place with a +20. As follows from, I didn’t see a ton of goals scored against NYCFC - i.e., again, they are a good defensive team - but a hefty chunk of them shared two characteristics.

Switching Off/Set-Pieces
Some times they nod off on defense, and it’s full-on lights out when NYCFC does. A lot of ball-watching, heads not on swivels, just general, crippling inattention to the world around them. The Timbers can’t rely on that happening, obviously, because, again, they ended the regular season allowing 1.06 goals/game. Sadly, no one can make their defense switch off on command (but what if I paid you money? I've got like $56 in ones, guys), which makes that a yes/no, they will or they won't kind of factor. Now, for the one Portland can exploit…

Breaking High Lines
NYCFC does their share of pressing - and that contains dangers for the Timbers - but they also pushed their defenders high in support of the mission, and that burned them more than switching off did. To be clear, we’re talking way up the field here, e.g., between the center-stripe and the top of their defensive third. Basically, if NYCFC attempts a high line, Portland needs to be alert to that - e.g., tell Juancarlos Van Rankint to look for long diagonals to Dairon Asprilla (or for Claudio Bravo to look for the same pass to whomever starts high and opposite him). That's a good general rule too: every Timber should look to play the ball into the space behind when and wherever the ball turns over. And any Portland attacker should get forward the second the ball turns over, not just in the hopes of getting onto a through-ball, but to create space to play shorter passes into the gap that opens up.

Before turning to NYCFC’s offense, I have one more general note, one that should disrupt a narrative I’ve seen in a couple places. If anyone tells you they saw this run coming, don’t hesitate to call them on it, because that claim falls somewhere between hype punditry and bullshit. For one, if you thought you saw them hit a slump down the stretch, you’re not wrong: NYCFC went 1-5-4 in the games between September 3rd and October 20th. And before anyone brings up strength of schedule, that lonely win over that period came against FC (Fucking) Cincinnati (fwiw, I’ve earned all of that swear), and included a road loss to Chicago Fire FC, a home draw against FC Dallas, and an 0-1-2 record against their “intra-city” rivals, Red Bull New York….also, hold that thought. And, yes, they followed that mighty stumble by going 3-0-1 over their final four games, but this was their schedule: at home against a severely depleted DC United, at home against an already-dead Chicago, on the road at (again) an already-dead Inter Miami CF, and at home against the Philadelphia Union. The goal differential - 11 goals for, and just four allowed - looks impressive until you see that six of those goals came against said severely-depleted DC United.

I don’t bring that up to make some claim that NYCFC rode their luck to MLS Cup; the fact they went 4-8-5 on the road during the regular season speaks to how powerfully they rose to the occasion with back-to-back road wins at New England and Philadelphia in the post-season. As much as it bears noting that they almost let both of those games slip away - see the late, late equalizer by New England (and credit to NYCFC for winning the penalty shoot-out), but also the combination of Philly’s Nathan Harriel missing a great look on one end, and the theretofore steady Olivier Mbaizo gifting NYCFC the winner moments later on the other end at Philly - a combination of a sturdy defense and a solid, multi-faceted attack carried them to MLS Cup.

With that, let’s talk about that attack - which, it bears noting, ended the 2021 regular season tied for third best with…hey, the Portland Timbers.

To start with a couple of broad notes, yes, Valentin “Taty” Castellanos slipped on the 2021 Golden Boot with 19 goals scored, and he backed that up with eight assists on the season. The man had a killer year and, hell yes, he’s a dangerous player, techincal, mobile and just a general pain-in-the-ass. And, yes, he scored his share of beautiful goals…but, golly, did about a third of all that come from the sole virtue of being in the right place at the right time; moreover, one-third of Castellanos’ goals were a combination of garbage goals and penalty kicks. Even on the good (or great) ones (and he has a few), how many of those goals wouldn’t have happened if he didn’t have a magician - nay, a wizard (actual quote from a broadcast btw) - named Maxi Moralez finding him in dangerous places?

That’s to say, talented as Castellanos is - which is to say, yes, and very - I’d call containing Maxi Moralez the first primary mission for the Timbers defense on Saturday. Now, some further notes from the scouting file, listed in order of importance.

Track Those MF-ing Runs
No matter where it happens, NYCFC builds its most effective attacks around movement - i.e., I saw very little post-up play in the video I reviewed. They generally move off and between defenders to find space to receive the ball and, with that as an ad hoc fulcrum, the players around it starting moving to pull defenders apart to open up space for secondary runs. Barring a bad day for NYCFC (e.g., everything in the Eastern Conference semi against Philly until the latter scored their goal), keeping track of runs in the area will be the biggest challenge for Portland’s defense. Related…

Don’t Let Them Operate in Area
People keep saying “the numbers love NYCFC” and they’re not wrong. No small part of that follows from having a bunch of technically-gifted players running the attack, but here’s the thing: the closer a defense lets them get to goal, the better the street-soccer maneuvering described above works. The absolute worst place to let them have the ball is in the channels between the fullbacks and the center-backs - something they did quite a lot against teams that pushed their weak side too far inside the 18 - but I saw plenty of lateral passes directly into the same area, particularly from their fullbacks, that had the same affect of getting the ball very close to goal and with runs flying all around. And yet, that’s not the full story…

Watch the Back Post
For my money, Castellanos scored his prettiest goals when he found space at the back post, a little further out than the last defender on the same side. That’s not just where Moralez found him for at least four goals, that’s also what set off the scrambling described in the two talking points described. As much as NYCFC likes using overloads to break down one side, they scored a lot of goals by punishing any defense that shifted too far over to defend the same overload. Basically, tell the last defender (and, based on where Castellanos scored a few, that’ll be Van Rankin), to fucking know and talk incessantly about what’s behind him. This is a team who likes switching the attack, and knows how to do it.

Zone 14/Free Kicks
As follows from the whole “technically-gifted” thing, NYCFC feels pretty damn comfortable operating in the space on top of the penalty area, aka, Zone 14. Sometimes they’ll play through straight to goal, sometimes, they’ll play into it, then pass over to the wings; the point is, they know how to get into that space and make it work. They also have a handful of players, at a minimum, who can hit free-kicks from that range. In other words, Timbers defenders should foul in that area advisedly. And that’s an explicit and direct memo to Claudio Bravo, in particular; it’ll take everyone hitting their marks and keeping tabs all over, but Portland doesn’t have to stop every ball from coming in; they just have to limit the damage they do.

Don’t Let Them Roll You in Midfield
While I wouldn’t call NYCFC a pressing team in the same way as, say, Red Bull, or even Philly in the Eastern Conference final (also, hold that thought) - i.e., they don’t chase every ball - I saw them press in the space between the defense and midfield plenty in the video. Basically, they have a history, if of unknown frequency, of having their forwards and attacking midfielders chase the passes from defense into midfield and turn those into those soul-breaking three-passes-to-goal moves that rattle any defense. And, as Timbers fans will recall from 2020, Portland had a massive/fatal issue with clearing the lines and/or getting the ball the hell out of the penalty area down the stretch. When they got pinned in, they panicked, and that’s something else that absolutely can’t happen on Saturday.

Don’t Think Compact = Safe
This one’s quick: I saw NYCFC play a scoop-pass over a compact defense at least five times and four of those turned into goals. We’re talking ten yards, and with not much more between the defensive line and goal. Again, this side has technical skill to burn.

And, one final, broad talking point:

It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over
Regardless of who NYCFC starts in the attack on Saturday, they’ll have plenty of options to call off the bench (also, I provide this list without being 100% current on who’s missing) - e.g., Ismael Tajouri-Shradi, Alfredo Morales, Alexandriu Mitrita, Heber, Jesus Medina (who was red-hot early in 2021, btw), and Thiago Andrade. Unless either the margin is too wide or NYCFC looks collectively broken, Timbers fans should resist any and all temptation to cheer early because Ronny Delia has ample cards to play until the final whistle blows.

And, yes, I know that’s a lot on New York City FC and very little on the Timbers. Going the other way, I assume that most people who find this post know as much or more about the Timbers than I do. But here are my thoughts on them, starting with one of the three take-aways that Steve “Hip Hop Legend” Zakuani had after Portland’s win over RSL:

“It’s not just that they are sometimes at their best when they bunker in and try to counter-attack, it’s that they are very organized defensively and once they do get out on the break, they know how to pick the right pass and make the right decision in the final third.”

“But they can also hurt you with long bouts of possession and intricate passing. And so they possess what the very best teams have in common when it comes to knockout soccer: versatility.”

Despite what karma should have visited upon them for their ample asshole-ism on the business side (more in a separate post and after a time-out), the Portland Timbers can also start a talented, strong team and with solid options off the bench, and on either side of the ball. For all their attacking talent and defensive solidity, and the bookies be damned, I see MLS Cup as the Timbers’ to lose. The question is how they do the opposite - that is, how do they win? I’ll close with some thoughts on that…

1) How to Disrupt NYCFC (and Should Portland Do It?)
The Union gave NYCFC one hell of a time in the Eastern Conference semi, and for the same reason that Red Bull gives them such fits: NYCFC generally prefers to pace the game and, as such, teams that make disrupting that Priority No. 1 tend to trip them up harder than most. I can’t and don’t see Portland attempting that tactic, I’m just saying it’s an option. All in all, I think the Timbers absorb well enough that they don’t have to do that…while still thinking Portland should strategically press NYCFC defenders and back line, if only enough to convince them that they can.

2) Mind the Channels
As with the last game…and probably every successful outing before then, Portland’s defensive midfielders will need to do a lot of defensive work against the overloads NYCFC will use to start the attack, and to cover the gap between Portland’s fullbacks and the center-backs - not to mention the space behind Portland's fullbacks any and all times they take the necessary risk of going forward. I do expect quite a bit of fluidity in this game, and even expect that NYCFC will pace it (also, please try to stop this), and, the longer the game stays even or on the wrong side of Portland's favor, they'll need to find a way forward...including on the outside. I'm not all that particular about who covers the space left by fullbacks charging forward; I just want it to be part of the game-plan.

All in all, I expect the Timbers to play another cagey game, and with knowledge of the field and its dimensions beneath them and the Timbers Army behind them. And I think they have it in them to win this game - this final - just as comfortably as they’ve dispatched any team in the 2021 post-season. Sure, they’ve had their share of breakdowns - e.g., Steve Clark’s volleyball serve to himself on what would have been an equalizing header by RSL’s Damir Kreilach - but they’ve also looked quite composed and more than capable of handling diversity - e.g., missing Sebastian Blanco and Dairon Asprilla in the Western Conference final. So, yeah, I’d argue they roll into the final in better overall shape than last weekend. One last, frankly wonderful point…

Look, I’ve spent more of the past 3-4 years waiting for the Timbers form to fall off a cliff. Related, as an FC Cincinnati fan, I’ve seen the bottom of that cliff and it is deep in the earth, and in a place there is no light…only the Timbers have never really fallen off that cliff since coming into MLS. They’ve had bad seasons, sure (aka, missing the playoffs), but they’ve never been worst in the league and they’ve generally been close on every time they missed. The persistent, haunting thought was that, when, say, Diego Valeri or Diego Chara moved on to coaching or selling used cars, the Timbers would slip to what Colorado Rapids fans can expect most years or, gods forbid, what the Houston Dynamo have looked like since their glory days.

Against that, and to make the point in one player’s form, I thought Marvin Loria fucking killed it in the Western Conference Final; the kid looked like a starter in my book. The larger point is that the good consistent play of young-ish players like Yimmi Chara, Dario Zuparic (who has been fucking aces in my book), Felipe Mora, and new-model Dairon Asprilla, the Portland Timbers look more like they have a next generation now than they did at the start of 2021. Add good noises from Bravo, Santiago Moreno, and, with a special nod, Cristhian Paredes (for the many times I’ve shit on the kid), plus Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Eryk Williamson, hopefully and for a long time returning from injury, the Timbers have some damned solid bones for the seasons ahead.

And that’s why, regardless of what happens on Saturday, I’ll still call 2021 a great season. But, yes, of course I'd take on win on Saturday over a future of, "better than I expected." One in the hand, two in the bush, etc. I'm not that weird. And I do think they have a better than average shot. Till a twitter thread during the game, and a couple plugs before then….