2021 MLS Cup Preview: The Timbers Game to Lose, but Let's Count the Ways

“I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part.”
“And we’re just the guys to do it.”
- Animal House, Whoever Wrote It, and, Yes, I Love that Damn Movie.

I like to think this site has a long tradition of doing excessive, even silly things at least once a season. With the Portland Timbers not just playing in its third MLS Cup, but hosting it as well, it felt like an occasion to really ratchet the excessive and silly to a whole new level. I’ll close this post with some general thoughts, but first, I decided to sit down and watch every goal scored or allowed in 2021 by the team that stands between the Timbers and the 2021 MLS Cup: New York City FC. Call it an attempt to figure out where the blows might come from, even if I’m powerless to do anything about it…

…and, full disclosure, I skipped the last three games of the regular season, and for reasons that will beccome clear when I talk big picture, and also totally forgot NYCFC played Atlanta United FC in the first round of the 2021 post-season, but, I did look at every goal besides that. Which is to say, I spent a stupid amount of time reviewing video for a guy with a tiny platform. And yet, here is my report.

To start with the big picture, NYCFC allowed just 36 goals during the regular season, plus five more during the playoffs, making them the 6th cleanest defense in Major League Soccer. Related, only two teams - the New England Revolution and Nashville SC - had a better regular season goal differential (+24 and +22, respectively), while NYC tied with the Seattle Sounders at third place with a +20. As follows from, I didn’t see a ton of goals scored against NYCFC - i.e., again, they are a good defensive team - but a hefty chunk of them shared two characteristics.

Switching Off/Set-Pieces
Some times they nod off on defense, and it’s full-on lights out when NYCFC does. A lot of ball-watching, heads not on swivels, just general, crippling inattention to the world around them. The Timbers can’t rely on that happening, obviously, because, again, they ended the regular season allowing 1.06 goals/game. Sadly, no one can make their defense switch off on command (but what if I paid you money? I've got like $56 in ones, guys), which makes that a yes/no, they will or they won't kind of factor. Now, for the one Portland can exploit…

Western Conference Final Preview: Notes on Lunch Ladies and Intensity

Best served with a "you're stuck here" hostility.

I’m poking around the Internet tonight in a vain attempt to find something more compelling to say about tomorrow’s Western Conference Final than, they will or they won’t. That’s to say, I don’t think there’s anything anyone involved with either the Portland Timbers or Real Salt Lake can do besides lay down the marks and hope their players hit them.

You see things - e.g., Albert Rusnak coming back for RSL; Sebastian Blanco might be back for the Timbers (but…how much of him?), how so much depends on Yimmi Chara (and a red wheel/barrow/glazed with rain; and I agree, if for a different reason), Portland’s considerable dominance over the 2021 season (3 wins, 12 goals to RSL’s four), etc. - but that’s all graffiti on the random-number-generator hype-machine that is The Mothership, more branding than information. And it tells the same story to boot - i.e., they will or they won’t.

Stumptown Footy put in more effort than spitting out a couple hot-takes [Ed. - I’m not likely to give much more, so…] - e.g., they flagged the suspension of Everton Ruiz - but they also took the correct path of chucking regular season results out the window, because I don’t see RSL playing with the same drunk-puppy abandon they did in that 6-1 drubbing back in late September. They also shared a thought I had;  here, the parenthetical is key:

“Whether it is by absorbing and countering, or by dictating the play themselves (I could honestly see it going either way), Portland’s attackers will have to be ready to offset and unbalance RSL’s defense.”

In my mind, the most meaningful will-they/won’t-they Timbers fans will see tomorrow comes with the approach Portland takes to the game. Do they come out aggressive and try to crush RSL’s spirit? Do they focus first on keeping their shit together (as they did against Colorado) to tempt RSL into the drunken puppy thing? If so, how long do they keep it up? And, since I’m writing all this out, what do I think they should do? [Ed. - Does not fucking matter; I’ve moved to thinking about spectator sports the same way I felt about school lunches: Gio et. al. will serve up something and it’ll be good or bad depending on the day. Also, slot machines offer a uniquely valid, if baffling, metaphor.]

Portland Timbers 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes: Plop, Plop, Fizz, Fizz & Other Thoughts

Celebrate. The demon-child allowed it.

Delightful. Absolutely delightful.

Blown away as I am by Dairon Asprilla’s career-year-capping, wunder-goal, the bigger, better take-away is this: think where the Portland Timbers would be today with Asprilla’s TEN (10) goals in 2021. On numbers alone, they’d be where the San Jose Earthquakes find themselves after tonight’s 2-0 loss at Providence Park: about 10 goals on the wrong side of good and mathematically out of the 2021 Major League Soccer playoffs.

The Timbers haven't stepped into the Promised Land yet - which, here, means the good bits, way past where Moses got - but they’ve bought themselves a fuck-up, maybe even a fuck-up-and-a-half, down the stretch. And I’m starting there for a reason, because a single sentence from Liam Ridgewell, tonight, from the broadcast booth, gave me the words for a concept tonight, maybe even a thesis:

Once one team breaks another, everything else goes out the window. Just put the game on ignore and enjoy it…so long as your team is one the right side of it.

Ridgewell kept going back to the idea of a game-plan, the importance of sticking with it, even to the point of eschewing tempting opportunities for heroism - i.e., know your role, operate within it, trust your teammates will do you the same, block out all the signs and voices bellowing “[YOUR COACH’S NAME HERE] OUT,” and stick with it till the plan comes together and everyone wearing the same shirt as you gets the big win. Sometimes it doesn’t work, sometimes it does and it becomes a team’s “identity,” but,  at the end of it all, it’s just a set of assumptions a team plays under in order to make decisions and/or plays happen a little faster. Right?

As follows from, one team breaks another when they make the assumptions by which they operate fall apart. And, yeah, Asprilla’s goal was spectator-sports ecstasy, but the bigger, better thing framing for tonight’s game was, “there but for the left hand of J. T. Marcinkowski, San Jose would have eaten bowls full of shit.” From the time the ref blew the opening whistle for the second half to the end of the game, the game didn’t look like anything else but a Timbers win. And…confirmed: San Jose’s xG flat-lined after the 45th; it didn’t really do much from the 10th minute, honestly. Which gets back to what I’m saying about breaking a team…

Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 Portland Timbers: Shit Happens & Mapping a Future

All I want to know: will I like the ending?

Give a team two pillow-soft chances, you give up two goals. Give a pig a pancake and….honestly, I have no idea, I’ve only seen the cover of that book.

Obviously, that was not ideal, but, for me, the whole thing had the feel of the Los Angeles Galaxy was due to win, the Portland Timbers were due a loss. As the kids say, shit happens, and the Galaxy wins at home 2-0. The Timbers had some points to burn, they’re not gonna catch the Seattle Sounders, the road ahead is pretty favorable, and so on. Pick, move on, and, for fuck’s sake, play Diego Valeri earlier if you’re gonna play him at all. Maybe try attacking defending with seven while attacking with three skilled players pushed way the fuck up for counters toward the end of a game. I don’t know. I only manage teams online and they do awesome. On toddler mode. And I digress.

Full disclosure, I only watched half that game, stared at some stats (where I saw what I wanted: fairly even for shots on goal and winning the duels), so take all notes below with due caution, etc. At the same time, these are mostly general thoughts about Portland’s stretch run - which, for the record, conncludes with: v Vancouver, at Colorado, v San Jose, at Real Salt Lake, v Austin FC. And, yes, I typed more of the names out to celebrate not forever operating under 280 characters. Some notes…and I mean beyond obvious stuff like, “Blanco RULZ” (and he does) or “mistakes hurt the Timbers tonight.” Wait…moving on…

Van Rankin Van Rankles
Because I saw Steve Clark make two saves (at least) that easily could have gone in (and yet two shit goals did), I’m comfortable accepting the Timbers had plenty of other ways to lose this one…but, Van Rankin. He hasn’t fulfilled my expectations on either side of the ball. He’s not an outright liability either, it’s just….yeah.