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| Arguably, the true margin of victory. |
Due to a series of random accidents, I sat through FC Cincinnati’s 1-0 home win over Orlando City SC a day late. Absent a total media blackout going in – which, in light of recent events and anger re, I didn’t even attempt – you can’t help but see the game through the lens of whatever information fell in your lap. It was mostly jokes about Cincinnati owning Orlando – e.g., aka Wikipedia page shenanigans – dazed musing over whether Cincy should perhaps look for a taller target for the 2022 season.
After dipping into the highlights, I clicked over the game stats, which showed an efficient game for Cincy – i.e., a high percentage of their 14 shots on goal – and a stunning 0.3 xG for Orlando. All I could think was, “how the hell was Nick Hagglund more dangerous than the entire Orlando roster?” Again, that's Nick Hagglund.
You know the “but” is coming, but I am not going to shit on this win. I can’t think of one stretch of the game that gave Cincy cause to fret, never mind worry. Orlando had a little more of the ball, but Cincinnati did twice as much with their time; movement off the ball and movement around it tended toward clean and high-percentage, player had little trouble playing out of pressure or playing forward. Cincy’s defensive posture was sharp ‘n’ solid, they played high, but not reckless, closed quickly and did an impressive job of keeping Orlando in front of them...
...but (there it is) Orlando helped a lot with all that. Patient to the point of being idle, too quick to play the ball backward, indecisive in movement and trying to do too much with too few: all that gave Cincinnati’s defense time to organize over and a consistent advantage in the numbers. I saw both of Orlando’s shots on goal and only one gave Roman Celentano a time to shine; their arguable best shot came in a play called back for offside, but Celentano got even that. And that’s how a team ends on an xG of 0.3.
That kept Orlando from winning the game...or doing much of anything, but the general malaise the defense mirrored back to its offense, with like for like clarity (not since Narcissus has a reflection been so fair and true), and that caused them to lose it. Tweets about “that Brenner goal” (or something to that effect) freckled my time-line and those got me dreaming of possibilities...instead I got a tap-in from the rough location of where the generally steady Pedro Gallase’s lap would have been. The kid needed to break his duck, obviously, but wouldn’t it have been nice to see that broken duck come from something Brenner did, as opposed to drifting half-asleep to the right place?
I think most would agree Luciano Acosta came into the game dedicated to changing it – and he did, full credit to him – but that goal (and the looping miss to the back post that came immediately before it) got a massive assist from Orlando defenders watching the ball as if they'd bought tickets instead of suiting up. That, for me, was the story of the game: Cincinnati rarely had trouble moving the ball because Orlando rarely gave them any; half the time spent writing this post came from stumbling after the right word, but I still haven’t figured out how Orlando gave Obinna Nwobodo and Haris Medunjanin the entirety of the time/space continuum to receive and pass the ball, and throughout the game (meant literally), and why, for the love of all that is good, they so consistently failed to cover the first obvious pass on every play. The fact the first yellow card until after the 70th says plenty about this game. “Polite” describes it nicely.
All that and I haven’t even got to Hagglund’s several, valiant efforts on goal - and this wasn't even the good one - aka, the answer to anyone who reads the above and asks why Cincinnati didn’t win this game by more than one thin goal. Not every shot was advised, never mind great, but Haggs fired two that made Gallese sweat. A 2-0 score-line would have given a fairer read on what happened in Cincy last night, but it’s still three points to FC Cincinnati, seven wins on the season and an effective four-point cushion between them and the wrong side of the playoff line.
After dipping into the highlights, I clicked over the game stats, which showed an efficient game for Cincy – i.e., a high percentage of their 14 shots on goal – and a stunning 0.3 xG for Orlando. All I could think was, “how the hell was Nick Hagglund more dangerous than the entire Orlando roster?” Again, that's Nick Hagglund.
You know the “but” is coming, but I am not going to shit on this win. I can’t think of one stretch of the game that gave Cincy cause to fret, never mind worry. Orlando had a little more of the ball, but Cincinnati did twice as much with their time; movement off the ball and movement around it tended toward clean and high-percentage, player had little trouble playing out of pressure or playing forward. Cincy’s defensive posture was sharp ‘n’ solid, they played high, but not reckless, closed quickly and did an impressive job of keeping Orlando in front of them...
...but (there it is) Orlando helped a lot with all that. Patient to the point of being idle, too quick to play the ball backward, indecisive in movement and trying to do too much with too few: all that gave Cincinnati’s defense time to organize over and a consistent advantage in the numbers. I saw both of Orlando’s shots on goal and only one gave Roman Celentano a time to shine; their arguable best shot came in a play called back for offside, but Celentano got even that. And that’s how a team ends on an xG of 0.3.
That kept Orlando from winning the game...or doing much of anything, but the general malaise the defense mirrored back to its offense, with like for like clarity (not since Narcissus has a reflection been so fair and true), and that caused them to lose it. Tweets about “that Brenner goal” (or something to that effect) freckled my time-line and those got me dreaming of possibilities...instead I got a tap-in from the rough location of where the generally steady Pedro Gallase’s lap would have been. The kid needed to break his duck, obviously, but wouldn’t it have been nice to see that broken duck come from something Brenner did, as opposed to drifting half-asleep to the right place?
I think most would agree Luciano Acosta came into the game dedicated to changing it – and he did, full credit to him – but that goal (and the looping miss to the back post that came immediately before it) got a massive assist from Orlando defenders watching the ball as if they'd bought tickets instead of suiting up. That, for me, was the story of the game: Cincinnati rarely had trouble moving the ball because Orlando rarely gave them any; half the time spent writing this post came from stumbling after the right word, but I still haven’t figured out how Orlando gave Obinna Nwobodo and Haris Medunjanin the entirety of the time/space continuum to receive and pass the ball, and throughout the game (meant literally), and why, for the love of all that is good, they so consistently failed to cover the first obvious pass on every play. The fact the first yellow card until after the 70th says plenty about this game. “Polite” describes it nicely.
All that and I haven’t even got to Hagglund’s several, valiant efforts on goal - and this wasn't even the good one - aka, the answer to anyone who reads the above and asks why Cincinnati didn’t win this game by more than one thin goal. Not every shot was advised, never mind great, but Haggs fired two that made Gallese sweat. A 2-0 score-line would have given a fairer read on what happened in Cincy last night, but it’s still three points to FC Cincinnati, seven wins on the season and an effective four-point cushion between them and the wrong side of the playoff line.
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| Stand-in for a dead cat. I'm no sicko. |
Again, this was a solid game and a good win, but I wouldn’t count on many teams stepping onto the pitch at TQL Stadium and, swear to God, thinking nothing much more than how much they couldn’t wait for it to be over. I don’t claim to know Orlando well, but I’ve seen them play at least three games with the same dead-cat energy over the past year (that’s year, not season), so I generally think of them as an up and down team that doesn’t score easily (confirmed: they average 1.17 goals per game). And, frankly, I think that gives Cincinnati one more plausible opening to stay in the top half of the table. Orlando sits two points higher in the table now, but, based on the loose sum of what I know, they’re not necessarily better than FC Cincinnati’s 2022 model, just more stubborn.
One final thought – and it’s a repeat, much like all the rest (one reaches a point in the season, etc.) – but there’s something safety-blanket-comforting about seeing Cincinnati continue create good chances with Alvaro Barreal slotting in for Acosta, or to see them start Geoff Cameron at the back without missing more than a half-step. Better yet, there’s real safety in knowing that an Obinna Nwobodo/Haris Medunjanin defensive midfield platform still works – and, on the latter (also, I can’t believe I’m typing this), I feel like I can imagine games where I’d start Nwobodo/Haris over Nwobodo/Junior Moreno; moreover, I’d feel fine with Noonan starting Moreno if he had to rest Nwobodo. I’m also not sure I prefer Brandon Vazquez running up top with Brenner over the Vazquez running in front of a top three of Barreal, Acosta and Dominique Badji, but it all tells the same story: FC Cincinnati has that in several parts of the field, whether to start the game or to change the look 2/3 of the way through.
This game proved easier on the field than it did on paper, but I still don’t see it changing the (or my) current overall thesis for FC Cincinnati: they’ve graduated from focusing on how to not be the worst team in MLS to sorting out the steps they need to take to make the playoffs. It’s nice to see 2022 have some happy crazy.
Bring on New York City FC...and maybe drug them. Nothing too strong, just something helpful.
One final thought – and it’s a repeat, much like all the rest (one reaches a point in the season, etc.) – but there’s something safety-blanket-comforting about seeing Cincinnati continue create good chances with Alvaro Barreal slotting in for Acosta, or to see them start Geoff Cameron at the back without missing more than a half-step. Better yet, there’s real safety in knowing that an Obinna Nwobodo/Haris Medunjanin defensive midfield platform still works – and, on the latter (also, I can’t believe I’m typing this), I feel like I can imagine games where I’d start Nwobodo/Haris over Nwobodo/Junior Moreno; moreover, I’d feel fine with Noonan starting Moreno if he had to rest Nwobodo. I’m also not sure I prefer Brandon Vazquez running up top with Brenner over the Vazquez running in front of a top three of Barreal, Acosta and Dominique Badji, but it all tells the same story: FC Cincinnati has that in several parts of the field, whether to start the game or to change the look 2/3 of the way through.
This game proved easier on the field than it did on paper, but I still don’t see it changing the (or my) current overall thesis for FC Cincinnati: they’ve graduated from focusing on how to not be the worst team in MLS to sorting out the steps they need to take to make the playoffs. It’s nice to see 2022 have some happy crazy.
Bring on New York City FC...and maybe drug them. Nothing too strong, just something helpful.
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