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| Respectfully noted. For both, ideally. |
Like the Old Gray Mare, the Colorado Rapids ‘hain’t what they used to be (‘hain’t what they used to be), but, fun fact, they’re still three points better than the Portland Timbers. If my animal-themed analog for that didn’t mingle horses and glue, I’d use it....wait.
Then again, let us bury the past, and deep as it'll go. To the best of our ability. And then start with some facts:
Colorado Rapids
Record/Basics: 5-6-4, 5-1-2 home, 0-5-2 road; 17 gf, 18 ga, -1
Last 10: LLTWLWLWLT (3-5-2; 0-4-1 road)
Oppo: @ FCD, @ MIN, v CLT, v POR, @ SJ, v LAFC, @ SKC, v SEA, v NSH, @ NYC
What We Know About Them
Broadly, I think of the Rapids as a team that, with a boost from discipline and a collective game-plan (nod to Robin Fraser, who strikes me as just plain good people), plays a step above their talent - or they did last season. Their record notwithstanding, they defend well (barely; see above, league average = 20.8 ga), but they can also move the ball pretty damn smartly; then again, if your attack is built like a spear, only the smith paid more attention to the shaft than the tip...I mean, is that a win? I think of them as the reigning money-ball kings of MLS, honestly. All in all, they’re just as unlikely to beat the Timbers on the road – not with that craptacular road record (wait, what? Microsoft officially recognizes, “craptacular”?), and not, with apologies to Gyasi Zardes, the floppy tip on that spear – but I wouldn’t bet large on the Timbers winning their fourth game of the season. Not unless the other side of the wager makes it interesting. And if Portland falls flat here, Lord knows what I’ll think ahead of the next one against Houston. Fuck me...
Oh, and they’ll mostly be whole. Lalas Abubakar will be out (suspended for serial naughtiness) and I’ve seen chatter about Jack Price as a possible scratch...which wouldn’t hurt. But, again, the collective is greater than whole with this bunch. Expect maybe Michael Barrios...if there’s a more underrated player in MLS history, I can’t name him.
Notes on Recent Form
So, yeah, the Rapids haven’t won once on the road in 2022, but they just picked up their first road point of 2022 – and at New York City FC, of all venues/teams. Full disclosure, I only watched 40 minutes of the second half (and relied on broadcast booth chatter to fill in blanks/confirm theories), but a couple things stood out. They pressed, but not aggressively, and closed down players as if commanded by AI. Barrios stuck in my head because he badgered Alexander Callens like a crazed mongoose, scored a pretty damn nice goal and consistently fretted just about any NYCFC defender who had the misfortune of corralling him (even hit Callens’ ding-ding). To continue the sub-text from above, the game-plan was fairly clearly premised on harassing-n-countering. That limited NYC’s chances, which looks impressive per raw numbers, but there’s devilry in them details (e.g., 18 of their 26 goals came over 4 games; plus, they’ve played a succession of feeble-to-middling teams at home lately), which is to say could very well look better than their goals-for, but doesn’t that also describe Portland? Yes. Yes, it does.
Based on the averages, numbers, record, rumors, etc., last week has to count as a positive for the Rapids. The approach was a little cheap, but it suited the circumstances. I’m not 100% sure how they’ll game-plan for Portland, but I’d expect they’d feel a little more assured about taking the game to the Timbers, a theory I base on the blunt reality that NYCFC has more attacking upside than the Timbers and, soft games duly acknowledged, they have one of best defenses in MLS. And if the Rapids do come in to attack – fwiw, I wouldn’t, because why would you hand the Timbers free opportunities to transition (and why would you jeopardize getting the team’s feet under them on the road, one step at a time?) – why wouldn’t you gamble against the Timbers defense. I mean, Barrios v any fullback is tempting enough...
Notes on Past Meetings of 2022
A 0-2 road loss for the Timbers, at Colorado, played April 30, but I’m mostly disturbed about how well all my complaints projected; self-fulfilling prophecies are the worst. To refresh any memories, the Timbers had a one-man advantage for the last 30 minutes and actually got worse during that time. This was my top-line take-away:
Then again, let us bury the past, and deep as it'll go. To the best of our ability. And then start with some facts:
Colorado Rapids
Record/Basics: 5-6-4, 5-1-2 home, 0-5-2 road; 17 gf, 18 ga, -1
Last 10: LLTWLWLWLT (3-5-2; 0-4-1 road)
Oppo: @ FCD, @ MIN, v CLT, v POR, @ SJ, v LAFC, @ SKC, v SEA, v NSH, @ NYC
What We Know About Them
Broadly, I think of the Rapids as a team that, with a boost from discipline and a collective game-plan (nod to Robin Fraser, who strikes me as just plain good people), plays a step above their talent - or they did last season. Their record notwithstanding, they defend well (barely; see above, league average = 20.8 ga), but they can also move the ball pretty damn smartly; then again, if your attack is built like a spear, only the smith paid more attention to the shaft than the tip...I mean, is that a win? I think of them as the reigning money-ball kings of MLS, honestly. All in all, they’re just as unlikely to beat the Timbers on the road – not with that craptacular road record (wait, what? Microsoft officially recognizes, “craptacular”?), and not, with apologies to Gyasi Zardes, the floppy tip on that spear – but I wouldn’t bet large on the Timbers winning their fourth game of the season. Not unless the other side of the wager makes it interesting. And if Portland falls flat here, Lord knows what I’ll think ahead of the next one against Houston. Fuck me...
Oh, and they’ll mostly be whole. Lalas Abubakar will be out (suspended for serial naughtiness) and I’ve seen chatter about Jack Price as a possible scratch...which wouldn’t hurt. But, again, the collective is greater than whole with this bunch. Expect maybe Michael Barrios...if there’s a more underrated player in MLS history, I can’t name him.
Notes on Recent Form
So, yeah, the Rapids haven’t won once on the road in 2022, but they just picked up their first road point of 2022 – and at New York City FC, of all venues/teams. Full disclosure, I only watched 40 minutes of the second half (and relied on broadcast booth chatter to fill in blanks/confirm theories), but a couple things stood out. They pressed, but not aggressively, and closed down players as if commanded by AI. Barrios stuck in my head because he badgered Alexander Callens like a crazed mongoose, scored a pretty damn nice goal and consistently fretted just about any NYCFC defender who had the misfortune of corralling him (even hit Callens’ ding-ding). To continue the sub-text from above, the game-plan was fairly clearly premised on harassing-n-countering. That limited NYC’s chances, which looks impressive per raw numbers, but there’s devilry in them details (e.g., 18 of their 26 goals came over 4 games; plus, they’ve played a succession of feeble-to-middling teams at home lately), which is to say could very well look better than their goals-for, but doesn’t that also describe Portland? Yes. Yes, it does.
Based on the averages, numbers, record, rumors, etc., last week has to count as a positive for the Rapids. The approach was a little cheap, but it suited the circumstances. I’m not 100% sure how they’ll game-plan for Portland, but I’d expect they’d feel a little more assured about taking the game to the Timbers, a theory I base on the blunt reality that NYCFC has more attacking upside than the Timbers and, soft games duly acknowledged, they have one of best defenses in MLS. And if the Rapids do come in to attack – fwiw, I wouldn’t, because why would you hand the Timbers free opportunities to transition (and why would you jeopardize getting the team’s feet under them on the road, one step at a time?) – why wouldn’t you gamble against the Timbers defense. I mean, Barrios v any fullback is tempting enough...
Notes on Past Meetings of 2022
A 0-2 road loss for the Timbers, at Colorado, played April 30, but I’m mostly disturbed about how well all my complaints projected; self-fulfilling prophecies are the worst. To refresh any memories, the Timbers had a one-man advantage for the last 30 minutes and actually got worse during that time. This was my top-line take-away:
 |
| You do your best to ignore it, but... |
"After three games unbeaten, the Timbers got beat tonight - 2-0 at the Colorado Rapids - but I can’t remember the last time Portland looked like beating any team. Playing at that level puts their ceiling at draws, most of them goal-less, and that’s not a great place to be for a variety of reasons, up to and including entertainment. Worse, they haven’t exactly played the cream of MLS during that time - i.e., at Houston, v Real Salt Lake, and, tonight, at Colorado, aka, as close to middling (and yet still higher than the Timbers) that it gets - and that adds up to 282 minutes, plus stoppage time and in reasonably playable conditions, since the Timbers have scored a goal.”
Like feeling soft spots in the wall around your bath-tub. Never a good sign...
Personal & Its Disposition
They played a 3-5-2 at NYCFC, but, 1) I don’t recall that as their regular formation, and 2) I’m not going to look it up. The fact their allowed goals dip under the league average tells me enough. If the Rapids choose to possess the ball, they can do that – which, again, tips me toward thinking they’ll try to press the game with the ball, here and there – but I still expect them to try to pinch a point or three on the cheap. I already flagged Barrios as a dangerous player – and he leads the team in assists at four - but Diego Rubio has scored more than you think (7 goals, one a quality free kick against Portland, plus he’s got one assist), while new kid, Lucas Esteves, looks like another danger-man, with one goal and three assists. It’s pretty much The Collective from there, if with most of the top-line quality and depth coming in the defense, and most of the league-better quality devoted to keeping the midfield shape. I don’t see Zardes doing much damage absent service; then again, the Timbers CBs seem to have a league-leading knack for losing markers.
Now, based on that...
Some Things I Hope to See The Timbers Do
1) I’m Worried About the Channels
I don’t like the idea of Barrios getting isolated against a fullback – better Claudio Bravo than Josecarlos Van Rankin, but I’d call in a pinch fullback if the rules allowed it – and I’m antsy about either Timbers CB (won’t be Larrys Mabila, he’s suspended) getting pulled away from the center, because I saw a lot of instances where the Rapids played down the flanks and pressed following runs toward the top of the 18, i.e., shooting lanes are bad.
1a) Sub-Text, I Suddenly Don’t Like the Shape of This Thing
I don’t trust the Timbers to contain a team that counters. It’ll be better if Price can’t go – the man can hit a long, shape-breaking diagonal as close to a dime as any player in MLS, he circulates well, and he can break lines better than most – but, again, the Rapids have a lot of good passers on the team and that makes them a sound mobile/ball-does-the-work kind of team. The way Portland defends that – and that goes double if the Rapids dick around with game-states instead of bunkering/countering – will go a long way to deciding the Timbers margin for error on the attacking side.
2) Does Portland Just Go for this Fucking Thing?
Based on the above, absolutely not. The sometimes-sober man in me says they shouldn’t – and for the same reason the Rapids should feel geeked up about swinging too big on the road. The Timbers need a win, any win, and they need to start getting them sooner than later.
2a) I Want to See Them Go All Out Early
If I wore Gio Savarese’s shoes and blew his whistle (hiccup), I’d throw everything I had toward the goal for the opening 30, 35 minutes and reset to savvy if it doesn’t come off. On the sum of what I’m looking at, that feels like the best bet. Or the safest one. Which is 100% where my mind is.
Well, that’s it. Nothing to do but wait for the whistle.
Like feeling soft spots in the wall around your bath-tub. Never a good sign...
Personal & Its Disposition
They played a 3-5-2 at NYCFC, but, 1) I don’t recall that as their regular formation, and 2) I’m not going to look it up. The fact their allowed goals dip under the league average tells me enough. If the Rapids choose to possess the ball, they can do that – which, again, tips me toward thinking they’ll try to press the game with the ball, here and there – but I still expect them to try to pinch a point or three on the cheap. I already flagged Barrios as a dangerous player – and he leads the team in assists at four - but Diego Rubio has scored more than you think (7 goals, one a quality free kick against Portland, plus he’s got one assist), while new kid, Lucas Esteves, looks like another danger-man, with one goal and three assists. It’s pretty much The Collective from there, if with most of the top-line quality and depth coming in the defense, and most of the league-better quality devoted to keeping the midfield shape. I don’t see Zardes doing much damage absent service; then again, the Timbers CBs seem to have a league-leading knack for losing markers.
Now, based on that...
Some Things I Hope to See The Timbers Do
1) I’m Worried About the Channels
I don’t like the idea of Barrios getting isolated against a fullback – better Claudio Bravo than Josecarlos Van Rankin, but I’d call in a pinch fullback if the rules allowed it – and I’m antsy about either Timbers CB (won’t be Larrys Mabila, he’s suspended) getting pulled away from the center, because I saw a lot of instances where the Rapids played down the flanks and pressed following runs toward the top of the 18, i.e., shooting lanes are bad.
1a) Sub-Text, I Suddenly Don’t Like the Shape of This Thing
I don’t trust the Timbers to contain a team that counters. It’ll be better if Price can’t go – the man can hit a long, shape-breaking diagonal as close to a dime as any player in MLS, he circulates well, and he can break lines better than most – but, again, the Rapids have a lot of good passers on the team and that makes them a sound mobile/ball-does-the-work kind of team. The way Portland defends that – and that goes double if the Rapids dick around with game-states instead of bunkering/countering – will go a long way to deciding the Timbers margin for error on the attacking side.
2) Does Portland Just Go for this Fucking Thing?
Based on the above, absolutely not. The sometimes-sober man in me says they shouldn’t – and for the same reason the Rapids should feel geeked up about swinging too big on the road. The Timbers need a win, any win, and they need to start getting them sooner than later.
2a) I Want to See Them Go All Out Early
If I wore Gio Savarese’s shoes and blew his whistle (hiccup), I’d throw everything I had toward the goal for the opening 30, 35 minutes and reset to savvy if it doesn’t come off. On the sum of what I’m looking at, that feels like the best bet. Or the safest one. Which is 100% where my mind is.
Well, that’s it. Nothing to do but wait for the whistle.
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