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| Forseeing a minimum of such shenanigans. |
Major League Soccer’s regular season restarts this weekend, if under something like a yellow flag with only five games played between today and the regular season’s full, flushed return on June 18. I decided to use this calm before the storm to map out the likelier scenarios before the weekly flash-flood of scores and other data gets me, and everyone else, transfixed by the week-to-week grind.
As I say in all these forward-looking posts, everything below should be read as my expectations for what will happen over the next five (or six) games, as opposed to predictions. Moreover, I chose that five- (or six-) game time-frame very deliberately on the theory that, while anything can happen in any given game, most teams in MLS established a sort of mean over the first 13, 14, or 15 games of the 2022 season (or just 12 in Seattle’s case), and that they’ll revert to that mean, or somewhere around it, over the next five (or six) games. And yet there are questions...
Over the longer-term, players will start coming and going when MLS’s second(?) transfer window opens on July 7. Oddball moves aside – e.g., it looks like Adam Buksa will play his last game for the New England Revolution on June 15 – said arrivals and departures will come after the next five (or six; sorry, I’ll stop doing that) games, but that’s still something file away for the last 15, 16, 18 games of the 2022 season. The Mothership ran a couple articles on trades/transfers – one on players who are varying degrees of likely to go elsewhere during the transfer window (and some are big shit; e.g., Taty Castellanos) and another on players on contracts without active options – to help people organize their theories and wagers on the longer-term futures market.
Second, and more relevant to the next five games – I believe all of what’s below projects to July 14 at the latest, and only to July 10 for a healthy majority of teams – teams have had the past two weeks to examine what’s working, what’s failing, and to adjust accordingly, to get injured players back or closer to it, and so on. We won’t know which teams’ fates will change, or by how much till it happens, but here’s the real point: if just two or three teams deviate from the mean they set over first 14 games of the season, it could upset two to three times as many apple carts. If, say, Atlanta United FC goes on what I’d call an unexpected run (v MIA, @ TFC, @ RBNY, @ NYC, v ATX) or Orlando City SC face-plants through a fairly soft schedule (v HOU, @ CIN, @ NE, v DC, v MIA), that scrambles expectations for not just them, but all the other teams involved.
Then again, I used those two teams as examples precisely because I don't see them upsetting any apple carts – and that turns on the main data-point I referenced for this post: the strength of schedule each team faces between now and July 10th(-ish). That’s how I came up with the 10 things to look for the next month or so. Or, perhaps tidier, my 10 expectations. Before getting to those, a word on the two teams this site follows. And how do I put this delicately?
As I say in all these forward-looking posts, everything below should be read as my expectations for what will happen over the next five (or six) games, as opposed to predictions. Moreover, I chose that five- (or six-) game time-frame very deliberately on the theory that, while anything can happen in any given game, most teams in MLS established a sort of mean over the first 13, 14, or 15 games of the 2022 season (or just 12 in Seattle’s case), and that they’ll revert to that mean, or somewhere around it, over the next five (or six) games. And yet there are questions...
Over the longer-term, players will start coming and going when MLS’s second(?) transfer window opens on July 7. Oddball moves aside – e.g., it looks like Adam Buksa will play his last game for the New England Revolution on June 15 – said arrivals and departures will come after the next five (or six; sorry, I’ll stop doing that) games, but that’s still something file away for the last 15, 16, 18 games of the 2022 season. The Mothership ran a couple articles on trades/transfers – one on players who are varying degrees of likely to go elsewhere during the transfer window (and some are big shit; e.g., Taty Castellanos) and another on players on contracts without active options – to help people organize their theories and wagers on the longer-term futures market.
Second, and more relevant to the next five games – I believe all of what’s below projects to July 14 at the latest, and only to July 10 for a healthy majority of teams – teams have had the past two weeks to examine what’s working, what’s failing, and to adjust accordingly, to get injured players back or closer to it, and so on. We won’t know which teams’ fates will change, or by how much till it happens, but here’s the real point: if just two or three teams deviate from the mean they set over first 14 games of the season, it could upset two to three times as many apple carts. If, say, Atlanta United FC goes on what I’d call an unexpected run (v MIA, @ TFC, @ RBNY, @ NYC, v ATX) or Orlando City SC face-plants through a fairly soft schedule (v HOU, @ CIN, @ NE, v DC, v MIA), that scrambles expectations for not just them, but all the other teams involved.
Then again, I used those two teams as examples precisely because I don't see them upsetting any apple carts – and that turns on the main data-point I referenced for this post: the strength of schedule each team faces between now and July 10th(-ish). That’s how I came up with the 10 things to look for the next month or so. Or, perhaps tidier, my 10 expectations. Before getting to those, a word on the two teams this site follows. And how do I put this delicately?
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| Portland's strength, insofar as it has one... |
Portland Timbers, 3-6-6 record, 15 points, 2-2-3 home, 1-4-3 away, 21 gf, 25 ga, -4 differential
Next 5 Games: @ LAG, v COL, v HOU, @ NSH, @ SEA
Again, it’s not about what happens in any given game, than how many points Portland can get in that run and whether it’ll be enough to lift them out of their present, lowly place in the Western Conference. As much as I would sincerely enjoy eating these words, I can’t see the Timbers team I’ve watched get north of five points out of that stretch. While just three points separates Portland from the playoff line, they have five teams between them and the same, at least four of which – e.g., Houston, Minnesota, Colorado and Seattle – all look like good bets to earn more points than the Timbers in the near-term. Some relief/silver linings lurk in the details – e.g., Vancouver’s slightly murderous six game sub-schedule (@ SEA, @ FCD, v NE, v LAFC, v MIN, @ CIN) looks like a decent opening for Portland to leapfrog them, and Portland will play two direct rivals (Houston and Colorado) in the best possible circumstances (at Providence Park) – but, again, Portland has left unfinished business all over their first 14 games, and those road games don’t exactly scream “free points.” Hopping from 12th to 11th will hardly set the cockles ablaze, and that’s what I’m seeing. Sadly.
FC Cincinnati, 6-7-1, 19 points, 2-4-0 home, 4-3-1 away, 21 gf, 25 ga, -4 differential
Next 5 Games: @ PHI, v ORL, v NYC, @ NE, v RBNY
First, the bad news: four of those teams are above Cincy in the standings, and mostly for good reasons, and the only team that isn’t, New England, out-ran Cincinnati at TQL Stadium just a couple weeks ago. That’s a lot of zero-sum soccer in one month’s time and, bluntly, I don’t like the odds. Four points doesn’t strike me as nuts, and I dream of six, but dreams take place beyond our reach for a reason. Turning to the good news, the teams directly below Cincy – Inter Miami FC and Charlotte FC – both have equally challenging stretches ahead (@ ATL, v MIN, @ FCD, @ ORL, v PHI for Miami; v RBNY, @ CLB, @ MTL, v ATX, @ HOU, v NSH for Charlotte), and Charlotte just threw its coaching situation into flux. As such, I like Cincinnati’s chances of hanging onto 6th place despite that schedule. Better still, Cincinnati has shown they can beat weaker, struggling or equal teams this season and they’ll get back to those down the stretch – e.g., after this hell stretch. Call it pessimism in the short term, mixed with very real optimism that Cincy won’t feel the sting of the wooden spoon on October 9, 2022.
That takes care of local concerns. Moving on to the bigger picture, here are my 10 things to watch for over the next 5 (or six) games.
1) My Most-Trusted Metric
Yeah, yeah, it’s obvious as the blue sky, but few things sell me on a team like a healthy goal differential. Seeing teams like LAFC, Dallas, and NYCFC at +13, +11, and +15, respectively, sends the clearest possible signal they’re on solid ground at or near the top of their conferences. Moreover, one can stretch the same very basic (so, so basic) argument to teams like Austin FC (+10), Philly (+9) and the Red Bulls (also +9). Some version of that thought informs a lot of the theories below, but those numbers communicate the significant expectation that most of the teams who play those three (or six) teams will most likely walk away with either zero points or one point.
2) The First Shall Remain First
Neither LAFC (@ SEA, v RBNY, v FCD, @ VAN, v LAG) nor NYCFC (v COL, @ PHI, @ CIN, v ATL, v NE) have wildly-challenging schedules in the near-term. I’d argue NYC has the easier one – and, with three home games against teams that have not traveled wonderfully, I can see them gaining 10 or more from that stretch – but LAFC has set a pace of 2.07 points/game (NYCFC has 1.86), they also play three of five games at home, and they’ve got a four-point cushion between them and second-place Dallas. Dumber things happened, but I see both of them staying on top.
3) The Chasing Pack, Western Conference Ed.
First, I expect anyone waiting on Real Salt Lake to slip will have to wait for some time after their next five games (v SJ, v CLB, @ MIN, v COL, @ ATL), because they’ve been strong at home (5-0-1) and the three teams they’re hosting don’t travel well. They might catch Dallas, who have a slightly tougher schedule (v VAN, @ ATX, @ LAFC, v MIA, @ HOU), but, as noted above, Dallas looks solid and shouldn’t slip much. I’d look for RSL and Dallas to separate ever-so-slightly from Austin and the Galaxy, Austin due to a heavy travel schedule (@ MTL, v FCD, @ CLT, @ COL, @ ATL) and the Galaxy how close they’ve cut it to hold onto 5th place – which, here, means they’re struggling offense (just 17 goals scored). I still see them gaining 5-6 points from their upcoming schedule (v POR, @ SJ, v MTL, @ LAFC, v SJ), but, if expectations hold, that’ll keep them I’m struggling to see them gain points on any team except Austin – who, again, could continue to surprise.
I’d call Nashville the wildest card in all that. They’ve got four of their next six games at home (v SJ, v SKC, @ DC, v POR, @ CLT, v SEA), and 2-3 of those look easy (don’t think I need to name names here) and those road games look low-hanging enough for the picking. They’re presently the lowest of the bunch – 6th place, on 22 points – but they also seem as well positioned as anyone climb a spot or three.
4) Why the Timbers Won’t Gain Meaningful Ground, Part I
To elaborate on why I think it’ll take a miracle on the order of resurrection for Portland to make real headway in the Western Conference standings, here are the near-term schedules for the teams tied on 18 points in 7th, 8th, and 9th place:
Houston: @ ORL, v CHI, @ POR, v CLT, v FCD
Minnesota: @ NE, @ MIA, v RSL, @ VAN, v SKC
Colorado: @NYC, @ POR, v ATX, @ RSL, v ORL
All of those teams have picked up 1.29 points/game over the season and I expect all of them to keep up that pace through those games, Houston due to the home games (and who they play), Minnesota because they’re stingy pains-in-the-ass, and Colorado because two home games, plus some road games where they can pinch some points. And, so long as they keep that pace – which projects to 6.45 points each – the Timbers would need 10 points to catch them. And, as noted above, I see them picking up half of that.
5) Why the Timbers Won’t Gain Meaningful Ground, Part II
Seattle plays five of their next six games at home - v VAN, v LAFC, v SKC, v MTL, @ TFC, v POR – and without the CCL to distract/innervate them. While I doubt they’ll sweep that run, I’d also locate the odds of them doing a couple miles on this side of Fantasyland. They’re just two points below that three-team tangle on 18 points and, bluntly, I expect Seattle to leapfrog part or all of that pack - and, by translation, Portland and Vancouver as well.
6) The Dark Horse Running Further Behind
San Jose lurks just over Portland’s shoulder on 14 points and 13th in the West. After a fucking terrible start, they’ve developed a penchant for wild, high-scoring games, some of which they’ve won (mostly at home, e.g., 4-3 over Seattle and 3-2 over Portland), and some of which they have either drawn (3-3 at Vancouver) or lost (2-3 at LAFC). Still, they are picking up points and making teams sweat. At least half their next six games (@ NSH, @ RSL, v LAG, v CHI, @ TFC, @ LAG) come against teams that don’t score freely – e.g., Nashville, Chicago, RSL and LA – which poses the question of how many track meets (i.e., high-scoring games) that the ‘Quakes can set up and win. I don’t see them making wild strides, but Portland and Vancouver need to step quickly.
7) A Static Top 6 in the East
As noted above, I don’t see Cincinnati falling out of the top six spots in the East – a thought that applies even more to all of the teams above them. A little shifting may happen here or there (see below), but I expect to see NYCFC, Philly, Montreal, RBNY, Orlando and Cincinnati stay on top. Columbus strikes me as the team with the best chance of catching up (v CLT, @ RSL, @ TOR, v PHI, @ CHI), but those road games probably doom them.
8) Philly v Red Bull (v Montreal)
I have no damn idea what’ll happen with Montreal (v ATX, v CLT, @ SEA, @ LAG, v SKC), but I’d still bet on them to stay in the top four in the East – and perhaps in style and comfort. The real wacky stuff surround Philly and the Red Bulls, both of which have struggled to find wins, despite those shiny goal differentials. Philly, for their part, have won just one of their past seven games (take a bow, Portland), though their upcoming schedule (v CIN, v NYC, @ CHI, @ CLB, v DC) should give them a decent chance at slipping out of that rut. As for Red Bull, 1) they have an equally squishy schedule over their next six games (@ CLT, v TFC, @ LAFC, v ATL, @ SKC, @ CIN), 2) they’ve been league-best (or thereabouts) on the road in 2022, and the points look gettable in three of those road games, but 3) they have bitten me on the ass hard in the expectations game this season. To speculate wildly and look everywhere but sub-point #3 in the preceding sentence, I like the Red Bulls’ chances for 2nd in the East come mid-July better than the other two.
9) The Dark Horse in the East
New England has struggled mightily in 2022 and losing Buksa can’t possibly help, but with just over half their near-term schedule (@ SKC, v ORL, v MIN, @ VAN, v CIN, @ NYC) coming against low-scoring teams and with teams like Miami, Charlotte and Atlanta looking like good bets to pick up fewer points than them, the Revs strike me as reasonably poised to catch a couple of the teams above them. A lot of that – if not all of it – will turn on whether New England scores first, but I’d also give them a better than even chance of staying ahead and winning if/when they do.
10) One of Your Likelier False Positives
Toronto is another team that has...struggled as they await an influx of star-power (Lorenzo Insigne). They also have one of the easiest near-term schedules (@ RBNY, v ATL, v CLB, v SEA, v SJ), with four of five games at home and three of them against teams that travel like crap (e.g., Atlanta, Columbus and San Jose). While I’m not quite expecting they get a run out of that, I’d take a jaundiced view of one in the event they manage one.
And that’s it for my narrative of the next month’s action. Broadly, I see more stability than chaos, but I’ll circle back to kick around what I missed – or, just as likely, what changed – in a month’s time. With both Portland and Cincinnati out of action till June 18, I’m hoping to watch most of the five games that will play between here and there. There might even be game threads...
Till then...
Next 5 Games: @ LAG, v COL, v HOU, @ NSH, @ SEA
Again, it’s not about what happens in any given game, than how many points Portland can get in that run and whether it’ll be enough to lift them out of their present, lowly place in the Western Conference. As much as I would sincerely enjoy eating these words, I can’t see the Timbers team I’ve watched get north of five points out of that stretch. While just three points separates Portland from the playoff line, they have five teams between them and the same, at least four of which – e.g., Houston, Minnesota, Colorado and Seattle – all look like good bets to earn more points than the Timbers in the near-term. Some relief/silver linings lurk in the details – e.g., Vancouver’s slightly murderous six game sub-schedule (@ SEA, @ FCD, v NE, v LAFC, v MIN, @ CIN) looks like a decent opening for Portland to leapfrog them, and Portland will play two direct rivals (Houston and Colorado) in the best possible circumstances (at Providence Park) – but, again, Portland has left unfinished business all over their first 14 games, and those road games don’t exactly scream “free points.” Hopping from 12th to 11th will hardly set the cockles ablaze, and that’s what I’m seeing. Sadly.
FC Cincinnati, 6-7-1, 19 points, 2-4-0 home, 4-3-1 away, 21 gf, 25 ga, -4 differential
Next 5 Games: @ PHI, v ORL, v NYC, @ NE, v RBNY
First, the bad news: four of those teams are above Cincy in the standings, and mostly for good reasons, and the only team that isn’t, New England, out-ran Cincinnati at TQL Stadium just a couple weeks ago. That’s a lot of zero-sum soccer in one month’s time and, bluntly, I don’t like the odds. Four points doesn’t strike me as nuts, and I dream of six, but dreams take place beyond our reach for a reason. Turning to the good news, the teams directly below Cincy – Inter Miami FC and Charlotte FC – both have equally challenging stretches ahead (@ ATL, v MIN, @ FCD, @ ORL, v PHI for Miami; v RBNY, @ CLB, @ MTL, v ATX, @ HOU, v NSH for Charlotte), and Charlotte just threw its coaching situation into flux. As such, I like Cincinnati’s chances of hanging onto 6th place despite that schedule. Better still, Cincinnati has shown they can beat weaker, struggling or equal teams this season and they’ll get back to those down the stretch – e.g., after this hell stretch. Call it pessimism in the short term, mixed with very real optimism that Cincy won’t feel the sting of the wooden spoon on October 9, 2022.
That takes care of local concerns. Moving on to the bigger picture, here are my 10 things to watch for over the next 5 (or six) games.
1) My Most-Trusted Metric
Yeah, yeah, it’s obvious as the blue sky, but few things sell me on a team like a healthy goal differential. Seeing teams like LAFC, Dallas, and NYCFC at +13, +11, and +15, respectively, sends the clearest possible signal they’re on solid ground at or near the top of their conferences. Moreover, one can stretch the same very basic (so, so basic) argument to teams like Austin FC (+10), Philly (+9) and the Red Bulls (also +9). Some version of that thought informs a lot of the theories below, but those numbers communicate the significant expectation that most of the teams who play those three (or six) teams will most likely walk away with either zero points or one point.
2) The First Shall Remain First
Neither LAFC (@ SEA, v RBNY, v FCD, @ VAN, v LAG) nor NYCFC (v COL, @ PHI, @ CIN, v ATL, v NE) have wildly-challenging schedules in the near-term. I’d argue NYC has the easier one – and, with three home games against teams that have not traveled wonderfully, I can see them gaining 10 or more from that stretch – but LAFC has set a pace of 2.07 points/game (NYCFC has 1.86), they also play three of five games at home, and they’ve got a four-point cushion between them and second-place Dallas. Dumber things happened, but I see both of them staying on top.
3) The Chasing Pack, Western Conference Ed.
First, I expect anyone waiting on Real Salt Lake to slip will have to wait for some time after their next five games (v SJ, v CLB, @ MIN, v COL, @ ATL), because they’ve been strong at home (5-0-1) and the three teams they’re hosting don’t travel well. They might catch Dallas, who have a slightly tougher schedule (v VAN, @ ATX, @ LAFC, v MIA, @ HOU), but, as noted above, Dallas looks solid and shouldn’t slip much. I’d look for RSL and Dallas to separate ever-so-slightly from Austin and the Galaxy, Austin due to a heavy travel schedule (@ MTL, v FCD, @ CLT, @ COL, @ ATL) and the Galaxy how close they’ve cut it to hold onto 5th place – which, here, means they’re struggling offense (just 17 goals scored). I still see them gaining 5-6 points from their upcoming schedule (v POR, @ SJ, v MTL, @ LAFC, v SJ), but, if expectations hold, that’ll keep them I’m struggling to see them gain points on any team except Austin – who, again, could continue to surprise.
I’d call Nashville the wildest card in all that. They’ve got four of their next six games at home (v SJ, v SKC, @ DC, v POR, @ CLT, v SEA), and 2-3 of those look easy (don’t think I need to name names here) and those road games look low-hanging enough for the picking. They’re presently the lowest of the bunch – 6th place, on 22 points – but they also seem as well positioned as anyone climb a spot or three.
4) Why the Timbers Won’t Gain Meaningful Ground, Part I
To elaborate on why I think it’ll take a miracle on the order of resurrection for Portland to make real headway in the Western Conference standings, here are the near-term schedules for the teams tied on 18 points in 7th, 8th, and 9th place:
Houston: @ ORL, v CHI, @ POR, v CLT, v FCD
Minnesota: @ NE, @ MIA, v RSL, @ VAN, v SKC
Colorado: @NYC, @ POR, v ATX, @ RSL, v ORL
All of those teams have picked up 1.29 points/game over the season and I expect all of them to keep up that pace through those games, Houston due to the home games (and who they play), Minnesota because they’re stingy pains-in-the-ass, and Colorado because two home games, plus some road games where they can pinch some points. And, so long as they keep that pace – which projects to 6.45 points each – the Timbers would need 10 points to catch them. And, as noted above, I see them picking up half of that.
5) Why the Timbers Won’t Gain Meaningful Ground, Part II
Seattle plays five of their next six games at home - v VAN, v LAFC, v SKC, v MTL, @ TFC, v POR – and without the CCL to distract/innervate them. While I doubt they’ll sweep that run, I’d also locate the odds of them doing a couple miles on this side of Fantasyland. They’re just two points below that three-team tangle on 18 points and, bluntly, I expect Seattle to leapfrog part or all of that pack - and, by translation, Portland and Vancouver as well.
6) The Dark Horse Running Further Behind
San Jose lurks just over Portland’s shoulder on 14 points and 13th in the West. After a fucking terrible start, they’ve developed a penchant for wild, high-scoring games, some of which they’ve won (mostly at home, e.g., 4-3 over Seattle and 3-2 over Portland), and some of which they have either drawn (3-3 at Vancouver) or lost (2-3 at LAFC). Still, they are picking up points and making teams sweat. At least half their next six games (@ NSH, @ RSL, v LAG, v CHI, @ TFC, @ LAG) come against teams that don’t score freely – e.g., Nashville, Chicago, RSL and LA – which poses the question of how many track meets (i.e., high-scoring games) that the ‘Quakes can set up and win. I don’t see them making wild strides, but Portland and Vancouver need to step quickly.
7) A Static Top 6 in the East
As noted above, I don’t see Cincinnati falling out of the top six spots in the East – a thought that applies even more to all of the teams above them. A little shifting may happen here or there (see below), but I expect to see NYCFC, Philly, Montreal, RBNY, Orlando and Cincinnati stay on top. Columbus strikes me as the team with the best chance of catching up (v CLT, @ RSL, @ TOR, v PHI, @ CHI), but those road games probably doom them.
8) Philly v Red Bull (v Montreal)
I have no damn idea what’ll happen with Montreal (v ATX, v CLT, @ SEA, @ LAG, v SKC), but I’d still bet on them to stay in the top four in the East – and perhaps in style and comfort. The real wacky stuff surround Philly and the Red Bulls, both of which have struggled to find wins, despite those shiny goal differentials. Philly, for their part, have won just one of their past seven games (take a bow, Portland), though their upcoming schedule (v CIN, v NYC, @ CHI, @ CLB, v DC) should give them a decent chance at slipping out of that rut. As for Red Bull, 1) they have an equally squishy schedule over their next six games (@ CLT, v TFC, @ LAFC, v ATL, @ SKC, @ CIN), 2) they’ve been league-best (or thereabouts) on the road in 2022, and the points look gettable in three of those road games, but 3) they have bitten me on the ass hard in the expectations game this season. To speculate wildly and look everywhere but sub-point #3 in the preceding sentence, I like the Red Bulls’ chances for 2nd in the East come mid-July better than the other two.
9) The Dark Horse in the East
New England has struggled mightily in 2022 and losing Buksa can’t possibly help, but with just over half their near-term schedule (@ SKC, v ORL, v MIN, @ VAN, v CIN, @ NYC) coming against low-scoring teams and with teams like Miami, Charlotte and Atlanta looking like good bets to pick up fewer points than them, the Revs strike me as reasonably poised to catch a couple of the teams above them. A lot of that – if not all of it – will turn on whether New England scores first, but I’d also give them a better than even chance of staying ahead and winning if/when they do.
10) One of Your Likelier False Positives
Toronto is another team that has...struggled as they await an influx of star-power (Lorenzo Insigne). They also have one of the easiest near-term schedules (@ RBNY, v ATL, v CLB, v SEA, v SJ), with four of five games at home and three of them against teams that travel like crap (e.g., Atlanta, Columbus and San Jose). While I’m not quite expecting they get a run out of that, I’d take a jaundiced view of one in the event they manage one.
And that’s it for my narrative of the next month’s action. Broadly, I see more stability than chaos, but I’ll circle back to kick around what I missed – or, just as likely, what changed – in a month’s time. With both Portland and Cincinnati out of action till June 18, I’m hoping to watch most of the five games that will play between here and there. There might even be game threads...
Till then...
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