Sunday, August 21, 2022

Sporting Kansas City 4-1 Portland Timbers: Are My Psychological Preparations Paying Off

Denmark smells like something crawled up its ass and died and brought a yeast infection along for laughs. Things smelled rotten three, four games ago.

Proof!
Here I was all primed to throw out a “I’ve written them off before” lifeline, one that included water‑wings that read, “if they put together a run, not only would that get them into the playoffs, it’d get ‘em there running” (they’re big water‑wings), and then I remembered that, in this season of fetid evil (aka, World Cup year, Qatar edition), the Portland Timbers have only seven games left to go. Between tonight’s result and the most basic math, a “run” would amount to them winning, say, five games of seven down the stretch. By any count, that means starting with a W next week...I mean, with the way the Sounders are playing...

About that result, the Timbers 0-3 road loss at the quite lowly Sporting Kansas City. Yeah, yeah, 1-4 road loss, but when the official webpage can’t get it right (see right/caught you, MFs!!), I feel all right calling the second half a 1-1 draw. Sebastian Blanco’s late consolation came four score minutes and four goals too late, sure, but had Portland played the first half like they played the second, well...we’d have something better to talk about, now wouldn’t we? The stats page backs me up on that too, especially the progress of the xG. Meanwhile, back in reality...

Because I was finishing off a really killer pork chile verde (nailed it), I couldn’t really drink in the details of each of the goals Portland’s allowed. Having just put my eyes and heart through them all again, I’d rank them as follows, the most egregious to the most forgivable: 3rd (all that standing?!), 1st (at least everyone pitched in on the fail!), 2nd (SKC got a bit lucky, but I’m giving an assist to the positively drugged defensive reaction), and 4th (shit happens when your pants go down). The simple story of this game goes something like this: after doing very little for 30 minutes, the Timbers fell apart for fifteen minutes. If I were the coach, I’d make the defense sit through the first and third goals 20 times between now and Friday night. I started the review tonight and I’d add on five more viewings any time the team complained.

Would to gods I had more than a couple positive things to say about Portland’s offense. To their very real credit, it took only a minute or two after the halftime whistle for the Timbers to create good chances; to his very real credit, SKC’s ‘keeper, John Pulskamp, stopped all the good ones. Portland added two more quality shots before the clock ran out – Dairon Asprilla got one, Blanco (who had a decent night after mo’ better support came on) got one more – but that still adds up to one slim shot more than SKC had goals.

To pull back the lens a little, last week’s loss at Toronto FC made me nervous for a reason. The Timbers have operated within a negative space for the past couple weeks; I’m not sure where tired legs start and collective confusion picks up to run off to an early end to the season, but I am sure that the last two performances have been Portland’s worst of a 2022 season that, but for a happy spurt (oops) from the end of June to late July (4-0-2; it was glorious), has grasped no higher than a couple rows below middling.

I’ve gotten bad about doing this (i.e., acknowledging the other team), but SKC took full advantage of Portland’s moments of doubt/indifference/exhaustion/deliberate tanking because they hate Gavin Wilkinson too? (At least the last one has a sense of purpose.) After an early period where they barely had any reason to feel better than the Timbers, they kept making the passes and the faith and, lo, first the luck bounced their way, and they made their own luck from there. Better still, they’ve got a couple new players to get excited about (Agada and Erik Thommy), while the Timbers have only the one (hola, Santiago Moreno!). This may be a far cry from saying I wish I was an SKC fan, but I will still give them a nod that communicates something between “well-played” and “oh, this isn’t over.” And I mean the latter in the sense that there will be a season after that, and then another one, and then another, etc., as opposed to the sense that Sporting KC will make the 2022 playoffs. As stupid, bad and random as Major League Soccer’s 2022 season has been (an under-reported story in my mind), I don’t think all the teams above them (literally, the whole goddamn Western Conference) have enough fuck ups in them to make that happen, mathematical possibilities be damned.

I wish I had talking points beyond the two below. I wish I had a sense of the best line-up Gio could trot out for the rest of the season. Still, for all that I wish the Timbers haven’t had the injury woes they have, a deeper team – aka, one that’s better overall – will cover that; whether by personnel or coaching, they’d find their feet, then find a way.

In training since 2018...
If I could figure out a poll that would dig out the truth of the statement, I suspect I take a dimmer view than most of the present, present (as in, healthy) talent on Portland’s current roster. Then again, I’ve spent the past five seasons – at a minimum – doomsday prepping for the Timbers to revert/catch up to my angst. Given where things are – i.e., the Timbers sit literally three points below 6th place Nashville SC, and five below 5th place Real Salt Lake – and given that, despite that assault to your eyes and confidence, they still have three teams between them and Nashville zero and one point better than them, Portland doesn’t need to do much, so much as it needs to do something. Something good, preferably, and sooner rather than later.

And now, talking points.

1) It’s Time to Bench Larrys Mabiala
Honestly, I can’t believe that either Bill Tuiloma or Zac McGraw will do any worse. And they’ve got more career ahead of them.

2) It’s Past Time to Bench Josecarlos Van Rankin
At this point, I’d pull in whoever they have playing that position for Timbers 2, and I would have reached for Pablo Bonilla six games ago, risks be damned.

In both cases, I can’t imagine what could be worse. At least a different kind of imperfect would give us something new to talk about.

Last and, sadly, not least, I want to circle back to something in the game thread – and it’s something that carries forward a talking point I keep whittling down to something better. Take away the seven goals they scored in the now clearly fluke 7-2 win over the same (and yet slightly different) SKC team, the Timbers would be 0.5 goals for/game under the league average. And given the 7.5 goals against they’ve allowed over the average, I feel more comfortable saying the Timbers are right now exactly where they should be: under the playoff line. And I flagged a moment in the game - a second half flash of promise where the Timbers had SKC's defense on their heels and Yimmi Chara on the ball - because it highlights what's been wrong with the attack all season: Portland's attacking players can neither see nor make things happen after the last obvious pass dries up. Whether by talent, patience or just overall preference, the 2022 Timbers have taught me the meaning of "creativity": it means finding the pass that enough defenders don't see coming, be it the first, second, third or fifth. It's not there this season, and that's how the Timbers became 0.5 below average in the attack.

Seattle beckons. Till then.

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