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| Go on, ya little shit. Those stairs ain't gonna climb themselves. |
I have more a string of notes than I do a coherent thought about that the Portland Timbers’ 1-1 home draw against Nashville SC.
First, Nashville scored – and the Timbers really do need to clean-up the set-piece defending; swear to God I saw Larrys Mabiala lean in for a power-header and miss it clean – then, the Timbers came back, and on the same kind of goal I picture when you hear someone use the word “patient” when describing an attacking build-up. Turns out the line between forcing it and dicking around is a thin one.
And, as much as anything else, the Timbers have gotten better about getting on the right side of that line lately – and the numbers back this up; Portland has averaged 2.0 goals/game over their past ten games, and haven’t been shut out once – aka, the same period that has me feeling better about their chances.
Again, there’s not a lot to analyze about this game. Both teams did a lot better over a first half that happily coincided with a time when both teams played with some combination of thinking they could win the game and knowing they have to start getting wins. It wasn’t until 70 minutes into the game that I realized I had nothing to say about how either midfield defended, and it wasn’t until the 75th that I realized that had everything to do with the fact that both teams focused more on attacking than stopping the other team from doing the same.
The sub-text that runs over the paragraph above is that Nashville started stepping to the ball and higher up the field. Portland hadn’t been great on the ball all game (a concern!), but Nashville forced a succession of turnovers early in the second half and that knocked Portland on their heels, and I don’t think the Timbers got back on the front foot at any point thereafter. Actually, take that back: they found it twice in the game’s dying minutes, first with Jaroslaw Niezgoda hitting a ball a mere 5 km below needed velocity, and then Nathan Fogaca (more on him later) not quite getting around his breakaway just a couple minutes later.
The Timbers had two late, great shots at a winner, but they only had those shots because Aljaz Ivacic made at least “that’s my guy,” saves (plus at least one weird one). You can sum up the game a couple ways.
First and foremost, no one would mind this result if Portland was above the playoff line. Related...
Second, the Timbers could have won this game. The blown calls helped (I counted three; banking them too soothe future disappointments) and, for my money, Nashville had better chances to win (again, take a bow, Aljaz), but the Timbers made plenty of good chances. Santiago Moreno had a minimum of three plausible looks, as did a couple others players, but the degree of difficulty excuses the misses.
Third, and most important of the three: every team in Major League Soccer faces exactly two questions after the whistle blows at the end of the last game of the season: 1) are you over the playoff line; and 2) are you capable of winning a game against most teams?
Literally any fucking team that can answer both questions with a plausible “yes” has a chance at MLS Cup, even if it’s a beggar’s chance. Given what I’ve seen on the field lately, and given what I saw from a necessarily-rotated Timbers team tonight, the Timbers can compete with most teams, but they still need to get over the line. And even that poses a couple questions. Most of the good ones start with, “why don’t they do this earlier in the year, so I don’t have to write them off.” They also end with, “why does it matter”? See your own two questions above, dingus.
I have nothing to say that isn’t obvious as the wisdom of saying breathing is essential to sustaining one’s life, so I’ll close with some notes on novelties.
First, Nashville scored – and the Timbers really do need to clean-up the set-piece defending; swear to God I saw Larrys Mabiala lean in for a power-header and miss it clean – then, the Timbers came back, and on the same kind of goal I picture when you hear someone use the word “patient” when describing an attacking build-up. Turns out the line between forcing it and dicking around is a thin one.
And, as much as anything else, the Timbers have gotten better about getting on the right side of that line lately – and the numbers back this up; Portland has averaged 2.0 goals/game over their past ten games, and haven’t been shut out once – aka, the same period that has me feeling better about their chances.
Again, there’s not a lot to analyze about this game. Both teams did a lot better over a first half that happily coincided with a time when both teams played with some combination of thinking they could win the game and knowing they have to start getting wins. It wasn’t until 70 minutes into the game that I realized I had nothing to say about how either midfield defended, and it wasn’t until the 75th that I realized that had everything to do with the fact that both teams focused more on attacking than stopping the other team from doing the same.
The sub-text that runs over the paragraph above is that Nashville started stepping to the ball and higher up the field. Portland hadn’t been great on the ball all game (a concern!), but Nashville forced a succession of turnovers early in the second half and that knocked Portland on their heels, and I don’t think the Timbers got back on the front foot at any point thereafter. Actually, take that back: they found it twice in the game’s dying minutes, first with Jaroslaw Niezgoda hitting a ball a mere 5 km below needed velocity, and then Nathan Fogaca (more on him later) not quite getting around his breakaway just a couple minutes later.
The Timbers had two late, great shots at a winner, but they only had those shots because Aljaz Ivacic made at least “that’s my guy,” saves (plus at least one weird one). You can sum up the game a couple ways.
First and foremost, no one would mind this result if Portland was above the playoff line. Related...
Second, the Timbers could have won this game. The blown calls helped (I counted three; banking them too soothe future disappointments) and, for my money, Nashville had better chances to win (again, take a bow, Aljaz), but the Timbers made plenty of good chances. Santiago Moreno had a minimum of three plausible looks, as did a couple others players, but the degree of difficulty excuses the misses.
Third, and most important of the three: every team in Major League Soccer faces exactly two questions after the whistle blows at the end of the last game of the season: 1) are you over the playoff line; and 2) are you capable of winning a game against most teams?
Literally any fucking team that can answer both questions with a plausible “yes” has a chance at MLS Cup, even if it’s a beggar’s chance. Given what I’ve seen on the field lately, and given what I saw from a necessarily-rotated Timbers team tonight, the Timbers can compete with most teams, but they still need to get over the line. And even that poses a couple questions. Most of the good ones start with, “why don’t they do this earlier in the year, so I don’t have to write them off.” They also end with, “why does it matter”? See your own two questions above, dingus.
I have nothing to say that isn’t obvious as the wisdom of saying breathing is essential to sustaining one’s life, so I’ll close with some notes on novelties.
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| I call him.........Dario. |
1) I Liked That Formation
Whether it’s a 3-4-2-1 or a 3-5-2, and regardless of personnel, I feel like either formation responds to a couple problems the Timbers have struggled to solve all season, which, here, means two fullbacks. I don't mean to present that as a crisis, or to exalt a formation change as some clear remedy, but, I also can’t think of the last time one fullback or the other hasn’t come up in commentary about a game this season. So maybe getting three CBs spread across the back will change the conversation about who to start at fullback with who to start as a wingback. I’m not 100% sure how I’d fill my ideal 5-man Timbers midfield, but I can see a couple angles that recommend it.
1a) Yes, I’m Talking About Marvin Loria
I think any sane person should have questions about how well Loria can defend, but I also think that the team gives up something regardless of whether they start Bravo or whether they start Loria – i.e., Bravo’s a chronic lunger (though I’d put his success rate at 60/40), while Loria’s likelier to defend positionally. I rate Bravo going forward more than I rate him defending, but I’d also give Loria a fair shot at improving on that. He dribbles well enough to beat one player; it’s when he tries to take on two that things go south, but he'll face that less if he starts his dribbles from a deeper position. I never thought about this until today...but I’m thinking about it now.
2) David Ayala
He did better today than he did in Minnesota game, particularly with passing the ball forward (plus, he had another good shot), but Ayala takes long touches for a full professional setting and he doesn’t have that “ball-dominant” vibe you want from a really good No. 6, or even a strong two-way No. 8. Still, I see at least one path to greatness for the kid – and that only makes it more important that he’s getting into games that matter.
3) I Think Yimmi Chara as a No. 8, and I’ll Carry That to My Grave
No further comment. Well, one. He’s neither ruthless nor clever enough in the final third, his positional defending is good enough for that role, he does well with holding possession (even if he’s not great at winning it), and his style of passing (simple, blunt instrument stuff) works better in that part of the field.
3a) Can the Timbers Buy-Down His Contract Yet?
4) Use the Guys You Got
Eryk Williamson will come back and that will help; the same goes for Diego “Seriously, Has Anyone Tested Him for Blood-Doping, Because That Ain’t Natural” Chara, and, if his recent upward trajectory holds, Dairon Asprilla. On the downside, the Timbers will not have Felipe Mora until next season. And, with that in mind, I ‘d like to see more of Nathan Fogaca. He’s elegant as a pair of busted-up Keds, but he can buy the team some energy at the beginning and end of any and every game, and I see value in that.
5) Santiago Moreno
He had a first half good enough to make me wonder where he went in the second.
6) Dario Zuparic. Et. Al.
Zup has been the most sure-footed defender on the team in 2022. He’s playing at a Borchers-2015-esque level right now, and that’s massive. And whether Gio sticks with a two-CB, two-fullback backline or keeps tinkering with the three, I suspect it’s going to be him and one-to-two . Both questions – e.g., who and in what formation? – feel really important right now. The way the attack has picked up amplifies the impact of every good move they snuff out and every goal they (or, too often, Ivacic) keeps out. If the Timbers can shave a couple tenths of a goal of their goals-allowed, they could ride that pony a ways.
Bottom line, the Portland Timbers are in a good spot right now. The question is whether it’ll be good enough to lift them into the post-season. Also, so long as it does, they’ll be fine. But they still have to take that one, necessary step.
Whether it’s a 3-4-2-1 or a 3-5-2, and regardless of personnel, I feel like either formation responds to a couple problems the Timbers have struggled to solve all season, which, here, means two fullbacks. I don't mean to present that as a crisis, or to exalt a formation change as some clear remedy, but, I also can’t think of the last time one fullback or the other hasn’t come up in commentary about a game this season. So maybe getting three CBs spread across the back will change the conversation about who to start at fullback with who to start as a wingback. I’m not 100% sure how I’d fill my ideal 5-man Timbers midfield, but I can see a couple angles that recommend it.
1a) Yes, I’m Talking About Marvin Loria
I think any sane person should have questions about how well Loria can defend, but I also think that the team gives up something regardless of whether they start Bravo or whether they start Loria – i.e., Bravo’s a chronic lunger (though I’d put his success rate at 60/40), while Loria’s likelier to defend positionally. I rate Bravo going forward more than I rate him defending, but I’d also give Loria a fair shot at improving on that. He dribbles well enough to beat one player; it’s when he tries to take on two that things go south, but he'll face that less if he starts his dribbles from a deeper position. I never thought about this until today...but I’m thinking about it now.
2) David Ayala
He did better today than he did in Minnesota game, particularly with passing the ball forward (plus, he had another good shot), but Ayala takes long touches for a full professional setting and he doesn’t have that “ball-dominant” vibe you want from a really good No. 6, or even a strong two-way No. 8. Still, I see at least one path to greatness for the kid – and that only makes it more important that he’s getting into games that matter.
3) I Think Yimmi Chara as a No. 8, and I’ll Carry That to My Grave
No further comment. Well, one. He’s neither ruthless nor clever enough in the final third, his positional defending is good enough for that role, he does well with holding possession (even if he’s not great at winning it), and his style of passing (simple, blunt instrument stuff) works better in that part of the field.
3a) Can the Timbers Buy-Down His Contract Yet?
4) Use the Guys You Got
Eryk Williamson will come back and that will help; the same goes for Diego “Seriously, Has Anyone Tested Him for Blood-Doping, Because That Ain’t Natural” Chara, and, if his recent upward trajectory holds, Dairon Asprilla. On the downside, the Timbers will not have Felipe Mora until next season. And, with that in mind, I ‘d like to see more of Nathan Fogaca. He’s elegant as a pair of busted-up Keds, but he can buy the team some energy at the beginning and end of any and every game, and I see value in that.
5) Santiago Moreno
He had a first half good enough to make me wonder where he went in the second.
6) Dario Zuparic. Et. Al.
Zup has been the most sure-footed defender on the team in 2022. He’s playing at a Borchers-2015-esque level right now, and that’s massive. And whether Gio sticks with a two-CB, two-fullback backline or keeps tinkering with the three, I suspect it’s going to be him and one-to-two . Both questions – e.g., who and in what formation? – feel really important right now. The way the attack has picked up amplifies the impact of every good move they snuff out and every goal they (or, too often, Ivacic) keeps out. If the Timbers can shave a couple tenths of a goal of their goals-allowed, they could ride that pony a ways.
Bottom line, the Portland Timbers are in a good spot right now. The question is whether it’ll be good enough to lift them into the post-season. Also, so long as it does, they’ll be fine. But they still have to take that one, necessary step.
You're on the nose about Zuparic and about the efficacy last night of the 3 centerback setup. Since Zup isn't quite our Virgil van Dijk, he may do better with two helpmates rather than just one rotating companion back there. It's worth trying again (this Saturday?).
ReplyDeleteThis game continued my membership in the Santi Moreno fan club.