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| Don't fuck with the Jesus... |
With the Portland Timbers approaching the now-or-never moment of the season – and they just let a moment go last night – they’ve got FC Dallas coming to visit on Saturday. On the plus side, Dallas has by and large followed the same script – i.e., start strong, then.....fade away - that has dogged their entire history.
In a fun twist, they’ve turned that grand narrative into micro-narratives for their games lately. I’ll get to that below, but let’s start with the basics:
FC Dallas
Record/Basics: 9-7-9, 36 points, 6-3-3- home, 3-4-6 away; 33 gf, 26 ga, +7 goal differential
Last 10: LTLTTLTWWL (2-4-4, 1-2-2 home, 1-2-2 away; high side of middling)
Oppo: v VAN, @ ATX, @ LAFC, v MIA, @ HOU, v NYC, v ATX, @ RSL, v LAG, @ SEA
What We Know About Them
They’re perennial contenders for MLS’s most effective development/selling team – a model that has consequences for their consistency, obviously – but Dallas also serves as the stomping grounds for MLS 2022 MVP candidate, Jesus Ferreira, as well as another USMNT-bubble player, the indefatigable Paul Arriola. Matt Hedges, one of MLS most reliable long-term CBs, anchors a backline that, as evidenced by the numbers, doesn’t allow a ton of goals. The who’s who gets a little thin from there, but still includes Paxton Pomykal, the eternal Comeback-Player-of-Next Year (though he has had a decent run this season), and Timbers fans will recognize at least one right back, assuming the start him (Marco Farfan.
Notes on Recent Form
As repped in numerical form above, pretty shaky – and regardless of venue. Their schedule hasn’t been easy by any means – and the wins they posted (0-1 at Real Salt Lake, and a 2-1 home win over the Los Angeles Galaxy) had the added bonus of taking all the points from rivals – but a frisky, upwardly-mobile team gets more than a third of the points out of that stretch. That said, both wins came recently and the way Dallas rotated their starting XI at Seattle (pretty thoroughly) floats a plausible theory that they rested starters for the Timbers because they felt better about getting points against them (or, alternately, they saw Seattle as vulnerable (fairly, given their recent record) and gambled). In other words, they might have shaken off a bout of midsummer doldrums just in time to ruin a Rose City Saturday afternoon.
By way of review, I watched about 50 minutes of the win over LA and, to get a sense of what they look like on the road, the first 15 and the last 20 minutes of the win over RSL (because they started all the tinies, the Seattle win didn’t look worth reviewing), and reviewed the box scores/highlights from their past six games. I can’t say that either the RSL or the LA game paints a fair picture of what Dallas likes to do and how well they do it – though it bears noting that Dallas ceded a lot of possession in both games (I'd call their average 45/55), and looky what happened (i.e., two wins); moreover, ceding possession to the Timbers almost always makes sense just about wherever you play them.
One final note of significance: Dallas had struggled mightily with putting away games prior to those two, enough that the broadcast booth brought it up in every quiet moment. During the RSL game, they dropped the stat that Dallas had given up goals after the 70th minute in nine of their past 10 outings. Holding onto leads has been a problem for them...
In a fun twist, they’ve turned that grand narrative into micro-narratives for their games lately. I’ll get to that below, but let’s start with the basics:
FC Dallas
Record/Basics: 9-7-9, 36 points, 6-3-3- home, 3-4-6 away; 33 gf, 26 ga, +7 goal differential
Last 10: LTLTTLTWWL (2-4-4, 1-2-2 home, 1-2-2 away; high side of middling)
Oppo: v VAN, @ ATX, @ LAFC, v MIA, @ HOU, v NYC, v ATX, @ RSL, v LAG, @ SEA
What We Know About Them
They’re perennial contenders for MLS’s most effective development/selling team – a model that has consequences for their consistency, obviously – but Dallas also serves as the stomping grounds for MLS 2022 MVP candidate, Jesus Ferreira, as well as another USMNT-bubble player, the indefatigable Paul Arriola. Matt Hedges, one of MLS most reliable long-term CBs, anchors a backline that, as evidenced by the numbers, doesn’t allow a ton of goals. The who’s who gets a little thin from there, but still includes Paxton Pomykal, the eternal Comeback-Player-of-Next Year (though he has had a decent run this season), and Timbers fans will recognize at least one right back, assuming the start him (Marco Farfan.
Notes on Recent Form
As repped in numerical form above, pretty shaky – and regardless of venue. Their schedule hasn’t been easy by any means – and the wins they posted (0-1 at Real Salt Lake, and a 2-1 home win over the Los Angeles Galaxy) had the added bonus of taking all the points from rivals – but a frisky, upwardly-mobile team gets more than a third of the points out of that stretch. That said, both wins came recently and the way Dallas rotated their starting XI at Seattle (pretty thoroughly) floats a plausible theory that they rested starters for the Timbers because they felt better about getting points against them (or, alternately, they saw Seattle as vulnerable (fairly, given their recent record) and gambled). In other words, they might have shaken off a bout of midsummer doldrums just in time to ruin a Rose City Saturday afternoon.
By way of review, I watched about 50 minutes of the win over LA and, to get a sense of what they look like on the road, the first 15 and the last 20 minutes of the win over RSL (because they started all the tinies, the Seattle win didn’t look worth reviewing), and reviewed the box scores/highlights from their past six games. I can’t say that either the RSL or the LA game paints a fair picture of what Dallas likes to do and how well they do it – though it bears noting that Dallas ceded a lot of possession in both games (I'd call their average 45/55), and looky what happened (i.e., two wins); moreover, ceding possession to the Timbers almost always makes sense just about wherever you play them.
One final note of significance: Dallas had struggled mightily with putting away games prior to those two, enough that the broadcast booth brought it up in every quiet moment. During the RSL game, they dropped the stat that Dallas had given up goals after the 70th minute in nine of their past 10 outings. Holding onto leads has been a problem for them...
Personnel & Its Disposition
While first-year coach Nico Estevez (right?) has shuffled around personnel a bit, he has stuck with two formations – a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 - across every game besides that weird one in Seattle (when he lined up his understudies in a 3-4-3). They go with the lone striker when they want to get Franco Jara out there (given his scoring record....why?), but whether Dallas does with a front three, or a recessed front three, the personnel tends to include Arriola, Ferreira, and, most often, Alan Velasco (who hasn’t blown me away, based on what I’ve seen). Dallas has generally started Jose Antonio Martinez alongside Hedges, but there’s also Nkosi Tafari, who has been fine. As for the midfield, Pomykal has reliably featured in the middle 2/3 (except in the Seattle game) and, per reports, he does good things, if a little unspectacularly; Estevez has paired him with everyone from Facundo Quignon, Brandon Servania, Tsiki Ntsabeleng, and probably someone I’m forgetting (yep, Edwin Cerillo). Judging by limited video review, the midfield’s primary raison d’etre is to get the ball forward quickly as possible. I saw the most variability among the fullbacks, but Emmaneul Twumasi and Farfan seem like the go-to guys. That said, Dallas strikes me as one of the more plug-‘n’-play teams in MLS: the specific question of which players they start only seems to help or hurt them at the margins – i.e., they’re only a little better or a little worse regardless of lineup.
Dallas uses its fullbacks, but less than most teams, and most of the attacks I saw went in and between the channels - i.e., they don’t cross a bunch – so it’s a lot of running at the defense and firing from range. The hardest thing to manage in the Dallas attack is its mobility; unless Jara’s out there, they don’t press against the back-line. As for the other side of the ball (de-fense, de-fense), I didn’t get any particular sense of weakness – though the fact I studied the two games where Dallas’ defense actually held up likely tainted the sample. That said, if you’ve seen Hedges play, you know you don’t cross against him easily and, finally, their ‘keeper, Martin Paes, looks more than capable. Oh, and they’re pretty strong on set-pieces – because, again, Hedges – so that’s something else to watch for/silently panic over (especially after the draw against Nashville).
Now, Based on All That
Despite Dallas’ trouble with putting away games, Portland will probably be cooked if they manage to score two; for all their faults, the Dallas D has given up three goals only once in 2022, and they don’t give up two goals all that often (just four times). Related to thereto, Dallas has tended to score early in recent weeks, something they accomplished, at least in the RSL win, by pressing/forcing mistakes; it’s like they know they need the cushion. Even after all I that, I don’t have much to say about what the Timbers should do beyond, “play gooder” and never stop pushing: Dallas typically manages their games pretty well (as they did against the Galaxy, if with an assist from the Galaxy’s incompetence), until they don’t. Other teams did it, why can’t Portland, basically.
Some Things I Hope to See the Timbers Do
1) Defensive Areas to Mind
Set-pieces, obviously, and Gio et. al. should put careful thought into who marks who, but I’d also put some real focus on the gap between the Timbers defense and the midfield. I expect most of their attacks to either from or through that space, so stopping the Dallas attack before it, say, isolates a CB or makes him shift sideways should go some ways to keeping Dallas scoreless.
2) Manage the Press If/When Dallas Tries It
I’m not sure they will – I mean, why give the Timbers space for transition? – but, in the event they do (and, if the review the video from last night against Nashville they might be tempted) – Portland should step to them every bit as hard as Dallas steps to them. Also, don’t be afraid to get a little physical; Dallas tends to post low duel/tackle numbers, so it’s possible Portland can knock them off balance.
3) Attack with Patience, Belief, and Creativity
Best-case, Williamson will start, but, if he doesn’t, I think Santiago Moreno will need another good outing – and, fullbacks except, he’s the lone player I want to see go wide. I like his chances against either Twumasi or Farfan. Beyond that, I want to see Portland’s attackers try shit before defaulting and I want the decisions to come sooner rather than later; the “patience” piece is mostly big picture – i.e., try to do a bunch of things fast and, if that fails, recycle the ball and try it again. And that relates to....
4) Avoid Getting Turned Over Anywhere but the Attacking Third
If Dallas can force a turnover near the middle of the field or, gods forbid, near Portland’s defensive third, they have the speed and guile to make great, short work of whatever wide-open spaces the Timbers allow. So, don’t get caught with your pants down. After set-pieces, I’d call attacks created by turnovers by biggest worry...especially if Larrys Mabiala gets caught dawdling on the ball again.
That’s all I’ve got. Hoping to have something to cheer about when the sun goes down Saturday night (even if I just mumble it into my pillow whilst crashing after writing the post-game comments).
While first-year coach Nico Estevez (right?) has shuffled around personnel a bit, he has stuck with two formations – a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 - across every game besides that weird one in Seattle (when he lined up his understudies in a 3-4-3). They go with the lone striker when they want to get Franco Jara out there (given his scoring record....why?), but whether Dallas does with a front three, or a recessed front three, the personnel tends to include Arriola, Ferreira, and, most often, Alan Velasco (who hasn’t blown me away, based on what I’ve seen). Dallas has generally started Jose Antonio Martinez alongside Hedges, but there’s also Nkosi Tafari, who has been fine. As for the midfield, Pomykal has reliably featured in the middle 2/3 (except in the Seattle game) and, per reports, he does good things, if a little unspectacularly; Estevez has paired him with everyone from Facundo Quignon, Brandon Servania, Tsiki Ntsabeleng, and probably someone I’m forgetting (yep, Edwin Cerillo). Judging by limited video review, the midfield’s primary raison d’etre is to get the ball forward quickly as possible. I saw the most variability among the fullbacks, but Emmaneul Twumasi and Farfan seem like the go-to guys. That said, Dallas strikes me as one of the more plug-‘n’-play teams in MLS: the specific question of which players they start only seems to help or hurt them at the margins – i.e., they’re only a little better or a little worse regardless of lineup.
Dallas uses its fullbacks, but less than most teams, and most of the attacks I saw went in and between the channels - i.e., they don’t cross a bunch – so it’s a lot of running at the defense and firing from range. The hardest thing to manage in the Dallas attack is its mobility; unless Jara’s out there, they don’t press against the back-line. As for the other side of the ball (de-fense, de-fense), I didn’t get any particular sense of weakness – though the fact I studied the two games where Dallas’ defense actually held up likely tainted the sample. That said, if you’ve seen Hedges play, you know you don’t cross against him easily and, finally, their ‘keeper, Martin Paes, looks more than capable. Oh, and they’re pretty strong on set-pieces – because, again, Hedges – so that’s something else to watch for/silently panic over (especially after the draw against Nashville).
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| Inspiration. |
Despite Dallas’ trouble with putting away games, Portland will probably be cooked if they manage to score two; for all their faults, the Dallas D has given up three goals only once in 2022, and they don’t give up two goals all that often (just four times). Related to thereto, Dallas has tended to score early in recent weeks, something they accomplished, at least in the RSL win, by pressing/forcing mistakes; it’s like they know they need the cushion. Even after all I that, I don’t have much to say about what the Timbers should do beyond, “play gooder” and never stop pushing: Dallas typically manages their games pretty well (as they did against the Galaxy, if with an assist from the Galaxy’s incompetence), until they don’t. Other teams did it, why can’t Portland, basically.
Some Things I Hope to See the Timbers Do
1) Defensive Areas to Mind
Set-pieces, obviously, and Gio et. al. should put careful thought into who marks who, but I’d also put some real focus on the gap between the Timbers defense and the midfield. I expect most of their attacks to either from or through that space, so stopping the Dallas attack before it, say, isolates a CB or makes him shift sideways should go some ways to keeping Dallas scoreless.
2) Manage the Press If/When Dallas Tries It
I’m not sure they will – I mean, why give the Timbers space for transition? – but, in the event they do (and, if the review the video from last night against Nashville they might be tempted) – Portland should step to them every bit as hard as Dallas steps to them. Also, don’t be afraid to get a little physical; Dallas tends to post low duel/tackle numbers, so it’s possible Portland can knock them off balance.
3) Attack with Patience, Belief, and Creativity
Best-case, Williamson will start, but, if he doesn’t, I think Santiago Moreno will need another good outing – and, fullbacks except, he’s the lone player I want to see go wide. I like his chances against either Twumasi or Farfan. Beyond that, I want to see Portland’s attackers try shit before defaulting and I want the decisions to come sooner rather than later; the “patience” piece is mostly big picture – i.e., try to do a bunch of things fast and, if that fails, recycle the ball and try it again. And that relates to....
4) Avoid Getting Turned Over Anywhere but the Attacking Third
If Dallas can force a turnover near the middle of the field or, gods forbid, near Portland’s defensive third, they have the speed and guile to make great, short work of whatever wide-open spaces the Timbers allow. So, don’t get caught with your pants down. After set-pieces, I’d call attacks created by turnovers by biggest worry...especially if Larrys Mabiala gets caught dawdling on the ball again.
That’s all I’ve got. Hoping to have something to cheer about when the sun goes down Saturday night (even if I just mumble it into my pillow whilst crashing after writing the post-game comments).
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