Sunday, June 23, 2024

Checking in at MLS Week 19: Trends, Hard Facts and Notes!

Quicksand is a major theme for this one.
Welcome to the MLS Week 19 Round-Up – and, again, with 14 teams on 19 games played, 12 teams on 20 games, and the remaining teams below that, this is MLS Week (Fucking) 19.

With the rush to stack the schedule before Leagues Cup 2024, plenty of games have taken place since my last global review of “Where Things Stand” in MLS (dated May 19, 2024) – five to six for most teams, seven for some outliers, and just four for the freakshow that is Columbus Crew SC – so today felt like a good day for an update to global picture.

The format for this one departs from past editions in that I’m going to lead with some top-line trends, i.e., items that, now that we have enough season behind us, feel sticky enough to feel real. I’ll close the post with the biggest picture stats for every team in MLS – e.g., their record, the results from the past 10 games, and where they played them – plus the one thing I’d tell someone about them if they asked. Full disclosure, I’m basing that note less on deep, first-hand knowledge of any given team, than on where those biggest-picture stats suggest they’re trending. Speaking of, let’s talk about those trends:

1) The Top 3 Teams From Each Conference
All three of Inter Miami CF, FC Cincinnati and Los Angeles FC have between seven (Miami) and eight (Cincy and LAFC) wins over the past 10 games. All three of Real Salt Lake, Red Bull New York and the Los Angeles Galaxy have racked up fives wins over their past 10. A few other teams are keeping that five-win pace – e.g., Columbus Crew SC, my Portland Timbers, (stunningly) Charlotte FC, and, if in a very much less promising way, New York City FC (see No. 3 below) – but those teams are piling up those Ws from a deeper spot in the table. That’s to say, the top 3 in both conferences look pretty secure for now, even if the Red Bulls have both Charlotte and Columbus nipping at their heels (and the Red Bulls have at least one warning light flashing). The have v have-not gap feels more real in the West and, so far, involves more teams than it has in recent past seasons. We’ll see how long that holds, but to flag one detail that helps explain the widening gap between the top teams and the ones getting sucked to mid-table…

2) The Three Straight Losses Club
All seven of the following teams have lost their last three matches: DC United, New York City FC, the Philadelphia Union, Toronto FC, Minnesota United FC, the San Jose Earthquakes and Sporting Kansas City. Two of those teams – San Jose and SKC – have seen an actually horrifying number of losses fall upon them whilst looking up from the bottom of a pit, but that run of crap form has real potential to tank the 2024 season for the rest of those teams, if with the arguable exception of NYCFC. Fairly related to that…

3) 2024’s Biggest Surprises (So Far)
Confident as I am that no one saw the Seattle Sounders running through mud or Philly’s mid-season flaming death-spiral coming at the start of this season, I want to stick with the positive surprises for this section - not least for the way they scrambled expectations in their respective conferences. Here, I’m talking about Charlotte FC in the East and the Colorado Rapids in the West. If you told me you saw either team at fourth in their conference with 20 games played, I’m going to go ahead and call you a liar. Even more surprisingly, I’d say Charlotte has the better formula to keep going: defense-first is often the best path.

You can see the naughty thoughts.
4) Teams One Can Safely Ignore

At the risk of getting ahead of myself, I’m going to declare the following teams dead as of MLS Week 20 when it comes to making the playoffs: from the East, DC United, Club du Foot Montreal, and Chicago Fire FC; from the West, St. Louis CITY FC, SKC and San Jose. Tempted as I am to throw a couple other teams on the bonfire – eyeing Orlando City SC and FC Dallas there, and Philly has a whiff of full collapse about them – MLS has pushed the playoff line low enough to forgive a Renaissance cardinal’s worth sins. The fact that the seven teams listed strike me as far enough from redemption speaks to how capable they’ve all become at getting in their own way.

That’s it for the summary. Moving on now to a list of all the teams in the league, some basic facts about each and one opinion that follows from, listed in their order in the standings starting with the…

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Inter Miami FC
12-3-5, 41 pts., 46 gf, 29 ga (+17), home 6-2-3, away 6-1-2, 1st East, 1st overall
Last 10: WWWTWWLTWW
Venue: AHAAHAHHAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: They keep on keeping, but that home win over Columbus confirms they can do it against all/sundry.

FC Cincinnati
12-4-3, 39 pts., 32 gf, 23 ga (+9); home 5-3-2, 7-1-1, 2nd East, 2nd overall
Last 10: WWWWWWLWWL
Venue: HAAHHAHAHH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Their goals against have gone haywire in recent weeks, to the tune of allowing 12 goals over their past five games – i.e., just over half of all the goals they’ve allowed in 2024.

Red Bull New York
9-4-7, 34 pts., 34 gf, 25 ga (+9), home 6-0-3, away 3-4-4; 3rd East, 6th overall
Last 10: LWWLWWLTTW
Venue: AHAAHHAHAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: They’re killing it at home, but a real contender gets more wins on the road.

Charlotte FC
9-6-5, 32 pts., 23 gf, 20 ga (+3); home 6-1-4, away 3-5-1, 4th East, 7th overall
Last 10: WWWTTLWWTW
Venue: HHAHHAAHHA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: He didn’t necessarily teach ‘em to play pretty, but 4th place (and 7th overall!) makes Dean Smith look like one hell of a hire.

I'm just as confused, Pete.
Columbus Crew SC

8-3-6, 30 pts., 29 gf, 17 ga (+12); home 4-1-3, away 4-2-3, 5th East, 9th overall
Last 10: TTTLWWWWLW
Venue: AHHHAAAAAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: If Columbus isn’t where you expect them to be consider the following: they have 2-3 games on every team above them and they won four games of five on the road before becoming the last team to beg the question, how does Peter Vermes still have a job?

New York City FC
9-8-2, 29 pts., 26 gf, 23 ga (+3); home 6-3-1, away 3-5-1, 6th East, 10th overall
Last 10: WLWWWWWLLL
Venue: HHAAHAHHAA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: The fact they hit a three-loss brick wall upon playing good (v CLB, @ LAG) and rising (@ NSH) teams takes a little of the shine off the genuinely impressive run that preceded it.

Nashville SC
6-5-8, 26 pts., 23 gf, 23 ga (0); home 4-2-5, away 2-3-3; 7th East, 15th overall
Last 10: WLWTTWLTWW
Venue: HHAHHAHAAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: When Nashville followed a couple promising wins with a face-plant against the New England Revolution, my doubts returned, but they’re back to their usual mix of tough and (mildly) boring.

Toronto FC
7-10-3, 24 pts., 28 gf, 35 ga (-7); home 5-5-0, away 2-5-3; 8th East, 18th overall
Last 10: WLLWLTTLLL
Venue: HHAHHAAHHA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Their promising spurts have schlumped into 2-2-4 run over their past 10 games, which should give their fans plenty to fret over.

Atlanta United FC
5-8-6, 21 pts., 26 gf, 24 ga (+2), home 3-5-2, away 2-3-4; 9th East, 19th overall
Last 10: LLLTLWLTWT
Venue: HHAAHAHHAA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: They have a post-coach bounce behind them, but A LOT of table above them.

Orlando City SC
5-8-6, 21 pts. 23 gf, 31 ga (-8); home 2-5-3; away 3-3-3, 10th East, 20th overall
Last 10: LWTWLTLLTW
Venue: HAHAHAAHAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: In all honesty, I have them on “safely ignore,” mostly because they’re this far down and can’t seem to get anything going.

Philadelphia Union
4-7-8, 20 pts., 31 gf, 31 ga (0); home 1-6-3, away 3-1-5; 11th East, 22nd overall
Last 10: TLLWTTTLLL
Venue: AHHAAHHHAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: I barely recognize this team at this point. Just WTF?

New England Revolution
6-10-1, 13 pts., 17 gf, 30 ga (-13); home 3-5-1, away 3-5-0; 12th East, 23rd overall
Last 10: LLWLLLWWWW
Venue: AHAAHHAHHA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: The team most likely to curl up and die suddenly has four genuinely credible wins in their pocket (@ NSH, v RBNY, v VAN, @ CIN), so who knows?

DC United
4-9-7, 19 pts., 26 gf, 37 ga (-11); home 3-5-3, away 1-4-4; 13th East, 24th overall
Last 10: TWLLTLTLLL
Venue: HAHAHAHAHH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: It’s one thing to lose six of your last games, but pissing away all the points against Atlanta and Houston at home tells me something ain’t working.

Club du Foot Montreal
4-8-7, 19 pts., 26 gf, 41 ga (-15); home 2-2-4, road 2-6-3, 14th East, 25th overall
Last 10: LLLLTWTTTL
Venue: AHHAHHAHHA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Montreal has just one win in their past 12 games, which renders them more or less irrelevant.

Chicago Fire FC
4-9-6, 18 pts., 23 gf, 34 ga (-11); home 3-5-2, away 1-4-4; 15th East, 27th overall
Last 10: TLLLLTTWWL
Venue: HHAHHAHHAA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: The Fire could have been as high as 11th had they won at Orlando last weekend; they didn’t and so there they are, propping up the Eastern Conference table.

Fuck you, snow!
WESTERN CONFERENCE

Los Angeles FC
11-4-4, 37 pts., 38 gf, 23 ga (+15); home 8-0-2, away 3-4-2, 1st West, 3rd overall
Last 10: WLWWWWWWTW
Venue: HAHAAHHAAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Even if their recent schedule has been on the soft side, they’re fucking plowing through it – and they’re catching up to Miami and Cincy on points-per-game.

Real Salt Lake
10-3-7, 37 pts., 40 gf, 23 ga (+17); home 6-2-1, away 4-1-6, 2nd in West, 4th overall
Last 10: WTWWTTWTWL
Venue: HAHHAAHAAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Still the kings of the small-market teams and their numbers are as good as anyone’s, but they’ve also started dropping dumb points (e.g., @ FCD, @ MTL, v LAG).

Los Angeles Galaxy
10-3-7, 37 pts., 38 gf, 27 ga (+11); home 6-0-3, away 4-3-4, 3rd in West, 5th overall
Last 10: TTTTWWLWWW
Venue: AHAAHHAHHA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Their recent streak (5-1-0) wouldn’t look nearly as good as it does if they didn’t cap it off with wins versus NYCFC and at RSL; being in a three-way tie for first in the West doesn’t hurt either.

Colorado Rapids
9-7-4, 31 pts., 38 gf, 32 ga (+6); home 5-2-2, away 4-5-2, 4th West, 8th overall
Last 10: WLWLTLLWWW
Venue: AHHAHAAHAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Their recent three-game winning streak came against weak teams (v ATX, @ STL, v MLT), but they kicked the shit out of all three, and with nine goals for and just one against.

Minnesota United FC
8-6-5, 29 pts., 31 gf, 29 ga (+2); home 4-2-4, away 4-4-1; 5th in West; 11th overall
Last 10: WTWTLWTLLL
Venue: AHHAAHHAAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Since I last checked in on Minnesota, they’ve gone 1-2-4 and that tells me something’s wrong in the Twin Cities, even if I don’t know what it is.

Portland Timbers
7-7-6, 27 pts., 36 gf, 33 ga (+3); home 4-2-3, away 3-5-3, 6th in West, 12th overall
Last 10: LLWLWWTTWW
Venue: AHHAHAHAAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Not so different from Colorado, really: they’re beating bad (e.g., San Jose twice) and fading (e.g., Vancouver) teams and that’s good enough for upper-middle table in MLS.

Master of the dark arts.
Houston Dynamo FC

7-6-6, 27 pts., 26 gf, 23 ga (+3); home 3-2-4, away 4-4-2, 7th West, 13th overall
Last 10: TWLTLWTTTW
Venue: HAAHAHAAHA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: They pulled out of funk with a couple strong wins – 3-1 v Colorado and 4-1 at DC – with a lot of ties in between; Benny-ball is back, baby!

Austin FC
7-7-6, 27 pts., 23 gf, 28 ga (-5); home 5-2-3, away 2-5-3, 8th West, 14th overall
Last 10: TLWWTLLLTW
Venue: HAHHAHAAHA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Just kind of hanging on to where they are, if precariously, and the larger trends ain’t great – but, hey, there’s still beating Minnesota on the road!

Vancouver Whitecaps
7-7-4, 25 pts., 26 gf, 24 ga (+2), home 3-3-2, away 4-4-2, 9th West, 16th overall
Last 10: TTLLTLWWLL
Venue: AHAAAHAHAA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: While some of this will turn on what the ‘Caps can do with the game or two they have in hand, the fact they’ve gone 2-5-3 over their past 10 games doesn’t point toward glory.

Seattle Sounders
6-7-7, 25 pts., 27 gf, 25 ga (+2); home 3-1-5, away, 3-6-2, 10th in West, 17th overall
Last 10: TWLTWTLWTW
Venue: HAAHAHAHAH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Not unlike their greatest rivals (tee hee hee!), Seattle’s pulling their shit together and running at some soft targets above (e.g, Vancouver, Austin and, maybe, Minnesota).

FC Dallas
5-9-5, 20 pts., 27 gf, 31 ga (-4); home 5-2-2, away 0-7-3; 11th in the West, 21st overall
Last 10: LWTTLLTWWL
Venue: AHAHAAAHHA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: After back-to-back wins over St. Louis and Minnesota, it’ll be really interesting to see how they bounce back from last weekend’s close, late loss at Seattle – especially given the shrinking margin they’ve left themselves.

St. Louis CITY FC
3-6-10, 19 pts., 24 gf, 31 ga (-7); home 3-3-5, away 0-3-5; 12th West, 26th overall
Last 10: TWLLLTTLLT
Venue: AHHAHAHAHH
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: The thing that stands out: they can’t win games. So many ties…

Sporting Kansas City
3-12-5, 14 pts., 31 gf, 44 ga (-13); home 2-5-3, away 1-7-2; 13th in West, 28th overall
Last 10: LLLLLLWLLL
Venue: AHAAHAHAHA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Seriously, how does Peter Vermes still have a goddamn job? 1-9-0 over their past 10 games and horrors all around it.

San Jose Earthquakes
3-14-2, 11 pts., 29 gf, 51 ga (-22); home 2-6-1, away 1-8-1, 14th West, 29th overall
Last 10: TWWLLTLLLL
Venue: HHAHHAHHA
The One Thing I’d Tell Someone About Them: Can a team volunteer for demotion?

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