Sunday, May 19, 2024

MLS Snapshot, Week 13/14, aka, Figuring Out What's Really Going On

Take me to your secret garden under the sea!
Back on April 6 of this year, I posted a pointlessly premature league-wide roundup. This post both updates and revisits those early impressions and in a way that, I’m guessing, will embarrass the author in more ways than it won’t. Moreover, I’m taking an approach meant to maximize that discomfort because, to paraphrase the late Bill O’Reilly (…wait, is he dead yet?), fuck it, I’m doing this live.

By that I mean, I pulled the top-line numbers from the current standings (i.e., this link is functionally dead by next weekend) and the Form Guide (never lets one down) for every team in Major League Soccer and combined them into tidy little blocks of data. Those blocks include: each team’s current record, total number of points, goals scored, goals allowed, home and away records, where they fit in their conference and the league as a whole, plus each team’s results over their past 10 games and a note on where they played those games. Think data in high-protein, never-gonna-shit-again granola form.

On the analysis side, I decided against farting around with strength of schedule and instead went with a single snapshot-style statement on each team at this moment – which, for the record, is either 13 or 14 games for 26 teams. That’s to say, the current MLS calendar is on Week 13/14 and the great Inter Miami CF calendar is a lie.

The notes on each team will close with my impression of them as of MLS Week 6. This is where the embarrassment comes in, because I swung wide and wild on plenty of teams.

That’s it for the preamble. Everything else should speak for itself from here. As with that last post, I’m starting with the MLS’s Western Conference and closing with the Eastern and I’ve listed every team according to its current place in their respective conference standings. Finally, and as noted on Bluesky, I’m going back to following the Portland Timbers and the Timbers alone, and then posting some form of league-wide weekly round-up. Not 100%-sure what form that’ll take, I only know I want it to be smaller than this whale.

For now, let’s climb on Shamu’s back and see where he swims.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Real Salt Lake
8-2-4, 28 pts., 27 gf, 14 ga (+13); home 5-1-1, away 3-1-3, 1st in West, 3rd overall
Last 10:    WWTTWWWTWW
Venue:     AHAHAAHAHH
Utah’s finest haven’t lost in 10 games and they’ve won a lot more than they’ve lost. Their schedule hasn’t been the toughest, but they’re defining their own strength of schedule
My April 6th Take
I speculated that RSL might be “this season’s small-market miracle,” so that held up nicely!

Minnesota United FC
7-2-3, 24 pts., 21 gf, 14 ga (+7); home 3-1-3, away 4-1-0; 2nd in West; 4th overall
Last 10:    WWLTLWWWTW
Venue:      AHAHHAHAHH
The Loons have made the most of a late run (@ CLT (who they destroyed), v SKC, @ ATL, v POR), so, not unlike RSL, they’re making their schedule “soft” by just taking care of business.
My April 6th Take
They started strong despite not having a head coach, but very much having a distraction with Emanuel Reynoso’s no-show circus; that got them to “playoff-steady” in my book, but they’re getting results and with enough style to bump them up to genuinely competitive.

We all agree Austin is shit and cannot be wrong.
Austin FC

6-4-4, 22 pts., 19 gf, 17 ga (+2); home 5-1-2, away 1-3-2, 3rd West, 8th overall
Last 10:    LWWLWWTLWW
Venue:      HAHHAAHAHH
Taking care of business, generally, and they just padded it with two wins – one easy (v SKC), one a little harder (v HOU) – over the past two-game week.
My April 6th Take
Just a bit wide of the mark: I joined the mob chasing them with the Wooden Spoon and, golly, have they outrun that.

Los Angeles Galaxy
5-2-7, 22 pts., 25 gf, 21 ga (+4); home 2-0-3, away 3-2-4, 4th in West, 9th overall
Last 10:    WWLWWLTTTT
Venue:      AHAAHAAHAA
Bit sneaky, honestly, because they’re visibly slowing down from a fast start. Also, when you like at the timing and opposition for four of the Galaxy’s five wins (e.g., @ SKC, v SEA (when they sucked (worse)), and San Jose twice), the whole enterprise droops a little.
My April 6th Take
In a bit of pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey punditry, I saw them finishing 3rd or better. Not totally nuts, but it’s gonna take a little Viagra to hold that up.

Los Angeles FC
6-4-3, 21 pts., 24 gf, 19 ga (+5); home 5-0-2, away 1-4-1, 5th West, 10th overall
Last 10:    LWLWTTWLWW
Venue:      AHAHAHHAHA
LAFC picked up their first road win of 2024 this weekend. They’ve got a good li’l run going to boot as well as Cascadia’s collective number (i.e., they’ve beat every team in that MLS subsection). Moreover, they leapfrog Austin in PPG if they make that game in hand (@ ATL) come good.
My April 6th Take
I didn’t know quite what to do with them, only that they dropped dumb points early and I expected them to reload. Ship’s righting without it, for now.

Colorado Rapids
6-5-3, 21 pts., 24 gf, 23 ga (+1); home 3-2-1, away 3-3-2, 6th West, 11th overall
Last 10:    LWTWWLWLWL
Venue:      HHAAHAAHHA
They’ve proved capable of landing some big wins, arguably ones they shouldn’t – e.g., @ RSL, v LAFC, @ NYC, and v VAN. Really scrambling the sensors, honestly.
My April 6th Take
Right after completely writing them off as active contenders – which I still stand by – I gave them a fair chance of making the 2024 playoffs – which I also still stand by.

Vancouver Whitecaps
5-4-4, 19 pts., 19 gf, 15 ga (+4), home 2-2-2, away 3-2-2, 7th West, 14th overall
Last 10:    LWWLWTTLLT
Venue:      HHHHAAHAAA
The magic on the road has dried up, badly enough to make one wonder whether it was a mirage. The venues have toughened up, no question – e.g., @ RBNY, @ LAFC, @ COL – but they’re dropping all of they’re still dropping real points and dropping in the standings.
My April 6th Take
“Sturdy as they are, I just don’t see the ‘Caps staying this high.” They were 2nd in the West at the time, fwiw. I saw them as a sturdy team without enough firepower and still see them that way.

Houston Dynamo FC
5-5-3, 18 pts., 12 gf, 13 ga (-1); home 2-2-3, away 3-3-0, 8th West, 15th overall
Last 10:    WWLWLLTWLT
Venue:      AHAAHAHAAH
They’ve suffered a slow fade, generally, but it’s underperforming against the other two Texas teams that’s killing ‘em.
My April 6th Take
I called them confident and boring and expected they’d get better as their star players came back; this has not happened, even with Hector Herrera working his way back in. Had them penciled in for the playoffs, but…

St. Louis CITY FC
3-3-7, 16 pts., 19 gf, 20ga (-1); home 3-1-3, away 0-2-4; 9th West, 19th overall
Last 10:    TTLTWTTWLL
Venue:      AHAHHAAHHA
Clearly no longer last year’s surprise team, but I never expect smashmouth tactics to keep a team hot forever. The last two losses over the two game week – v LAFC and @ CIN – put all those draws in an clearer context.
My April 6th Take
“St. Louis have their share of battling draws. That’s good for 10th, as it happens, and tracks with a loose impression this would regress.” No change, basically.

Sometimes, there are disappointments.
Seattle Sounders

3-6-5, 14 pts., 16 gf, 17 ga (-1); home 1-1-4, away, 2-5-1, 10th in West, 21st overall
Last 10:    LWTLLWTWLT
Venue:      AHAHAAHAAH
The attack has improved but only enough to lift them from trash to the lofty heights of underperforming.
My April 6th Take
“If any team will rise, yadda, yadda, yadda, but the Sounders are just bad right now.” Yeah, pretty much nailed it. They had a future plan in Pedro de la Vega, but his body parts blew up, so plus ca change…

Portland Timbers
3-7-4, 13 pts., 26 gf, 29 ga (-3); home 2-2-2, away 1-5-2, 11th in West, 23rd overall
Last 10:    LLTTTLLLWL
Venue:      HAAHAAAHHA
Nothing to see here, move along. (That’s to say, I had no idea how bad things really looked until I started looking at the Timbers in the context of the rest of the West/MLS.)
My April 6th Take
They were 8th in the West then, and the Kool-Aid tasted so, so sweet…

FC Dallas
3-6-3, 12 pts., 13 gf, 17 ga (-4); home 3-2-1, away 0-4-2; 12h in the West, 24th overall
Last 10:    LLLTTLWLWT
Venue:      AHAAHAHAHA
They can only beat San Jose and other teams from Texas…
My April 6th Take
Surprised at how bad they were, but also accepting of the fact that they were/are quite bad. Another team with a struggling O.

Sporting Kansas City
2-6-5, 11 pts., 21 gf, 24 ga (-3); home 1-3-3, away 1-3-2; 13th in West, 23rd overall
Last 10:    WLWTLTLLLL
Venue:      HHAHHHAAHA
They have navigated the tough, late stretch in their schedule about as well as you’d expect a shit team to do it: winless in seven games and with just two points of 21 taken. Your (FUCKING) dice, Portland…
My April 6th Take
Despite the fact they sat on 6th at the time, I had them as a mid-table team due to the fact they’re super-fucking old and the fair argument they should move on from Peter Vermes because times change, hairstyles change, etc.

San Jose Earthquakes
3-10-1, 10 pts., 22 gf, 33 ga (-11); home 2-4-0, away 1-6-1, 14th West, 27th overall
Last 10:    WLLLLTWWLL
Venue:      HAAHAAHHAH
A living, wheezing example of a team that expertly gets in its own way – i.e., after a horrific start, they win two real ones – e.g., v LAFC and @ COL – only to face-plant away to the Timbers and at home against Orlando.
My April 6th Take
“The glimpses/li’l flashes of leg I saw in them in the middle of last season evaporated against the numbing, present weight of San Jose’s early returns.” To clear, the early turns were bitter AF…

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Inter Miami CF
9-2-4, 31 pts., 36 gf, 20 ga (+16), home 5-1-2, away 4-1-2, 1st East, 1st overall
Last 10:    LTTWWWWWTW
Venue:      AHHAHAHAAH
Yes, yes, they’re clearly better than I want them to be, but I hate them enough to want to believe they’re overperforming due to a late, generally soft schedule.
My April 6th Take
Pretty much a lot of gibberish that amounted to wanting to see them fail, aka, a wicked case of denial because they’re largely performing as advertised, so guys, please fucking stop them!

Shouldn't have happened, but also yes.
FC Cincinnati

9-2-3, 30 pts., 19 gf, 11 ga (+8); home 4-1-2, 5-1-1, 2nd East, 2nd overall
Last 10:    WTLLWWWWWW
Venue:      HAHAAHAAHH
Re the above, a six-game winning streak – highlighted by a 2-0 road win at Columbus – will do nicely. Just plugging away on the back of Luciano Acosta and the league’s leading defense.
My April 6th Take
“Cincy looks like a bad spin on last season’s edition: a low-scoring team with a defensive rock behind it.” I hereby retract the “bad spin” part of that statement, but I still struggle with seeing a team do nothing but succeed (which is to say, I’m enjoying Portland’s 2024 for all the wrong reasons). Jokes aside, this is a very good team - one built honestly too…still blows my damn mind that they got Miles Robinson…

New York City FC
7-5-2, 23 pts., 18 gf, 16 ga (+2); home 5-2-1, away 2-3-1, 3rd East, 5th overall (big up)
Last 10:    LTTWWWLWWW
Venue:      AAHHHHHAAH
They’ve won three straight against good(ish) Eastern Conference teams (@ TFC, @ PHI, v RBNY). They’ve also been eating up the East, generally, and I owe Nick Cushing an apology (and also a correction for believing they’d let him go).
My April 6th Take
No, seriously, I thought they sacked Cushing. Also, this: “NYCFC feels like a team in need of a fairly thorough rebuild.” It looks like they just needed to figure some things out, because they are rolling like few teams in MLS.

Red Bull New York
6-3-5, 23 pts., 25 gf, 21 ga (+4), home 3-0-2, away 3-3-3; 4th East, 6th overall
Last 10:    WTWTTTLWWL
Venue:      HAAHAHAHAA
The Red Bulls have played enough wild stuff lately – e.g., a 2-6 loss at Miami, followed by a 4-2 win versus New England and a 4-1 run away at DC – which could explain how a newly-disciplined NYCFC team flipped New York to blue last weekend.
My April 6th Take
“I don’t know what to call what they’ve done so far besides working pretty damn well.” And it continues to and at about the same rate of accumulation. The Red Bulls have a good team this season, even if it’s a bit out of contention.

Toronto FC
7-6-1, 22 pts., 21 gf, 20 ga (+1); home 5-2-0, away 2-4-1; 5th East, 7th overall
Last 10:    WLLLWWWLLW
Venue:      HHAAHAHHLW
After starting 2024 as a defensive juggernaut/riddle, Toronto has moved on to succeeding by winning the easy ones – e.g., v ATL, v/@ NE, @ ORL, v FCD, v MTL.
My April 6th Take
“I’m not 100%-clear they need [Lorenzo Insigne], but this bowel-obstruction of a team needs someone to show up on the attacking end if they hope to aim any higher.” They have stayed in the same, decent place and good on them.

Charlotte FC
6-5-3, 21 pts., 14 gf, 13 ga (+1); home 5-1-2, away 1-4-1, 6th East, 12th overall
Last 10:    WTLWLLWWWT
Venue:      HHAHHAHHAH
A fairly boring team that is very good at home – where they’ve played seven of their past 10 games - and surprisingly competitive overall.
My April 6th Take
It is entirely possible they’ve improved on their past two seasons, when they finished 9th and with top-line number similar enough to be fraternal twins. Related, this is Charlotte’s best start in their short history.

Columbus Crew SC
5-2-6, 21 pts., 19 gf, 13 ga (+6); home 3-1-3, away 2-1-3, 7th East, 13th overall
Last 10:    WLTTTTTLWW
Venue:      HAAHAHHHAA
The champs are still pushing through the CCL hangover and have surely logged more miles than any team in MLS to this point, but it also took playing two crappy teams (Chicago and Montreal), if away, to end the barren stretch embedded in their last 10 games.
My April 6th Take
“Columbus will make the post-season, they’ll almost certainly remain relevant to the end of 2024. There’s too much talent and rhythm in this team for anything else.” It’s hard to shake that, honestly, even if they were 3rd in the East at time of writing and now sit…lower.

Philadelphia Union
4-4-5, 17 pts., 25 gf, 21 ga (+4); home 1-4-1, away 3-0-4; 8th East, 16th overall
Last 10:    WWWTLLTLLW
Venue:      AHAAHHAHHA
A six-game stretch with just two points from 18 taken makes it fair to ask if the Union has finally slipped.
My April 6th Take
“I don’t have a firm sense of where they go from here and I don’t know where or how Philly fits into the ceiling above them, but I do expect them to get up in it.” And yet things looked a little better then, in that they hadn’t yet lost.

DC United
4-5-5, 17 pts., 20 gf, 24 ga (-4); home 3-3-1, away 1-2-4; 9th East, 17th overall
Last 10:    TWTLLWTWLL
Venue:      AHAHAHHAHA
Officially treading water and starting to drop take on the same; the blowout loss versus the Red Bulls at home fired a warning flare.
My April 6th Take
“I think DC will spend the season yo-yoing up and down the middle of the standings and I’ll eat the stretchy shorts I’m wearing right now – no washing allowed - if they miss the playoffs.” I’m a little cooler on them now, fwiw.

Orlando City SC
4-5-4, 16 pts. 15 gf, 20 ga (-5); home 1-3-3; away 3-2-1; 10th East, 18th overall
Last 10:    LWTWTLLWTW
Venue:      AHHAAHHAHA
If it weren’t for their road form, they’d be kinda dead. Who saw that coming?
My April 6th Take
“Just when they seem poised for a strong season, Orlando does….this.” This meant start weak, but, to underscore the note above about their road record, they haven’t lost on the road since Week 6.

Nashville SC
3-4-6, 15 pts., 17 gf, 20 ga (-3); home 3-1-5, away 0-3-1; 11th East, 20th overall
Last 10:    WLTLLTWLWT
Venue:      HAHHAHHAHH
A semi-solid home record has kept them from drowning entirely, but, clearly, things aren’t good and they’re pissing away a pattern of two home games for every one they play on the road by leaving all kinds of points on the table.
My April 6th Take
“...their slow start folds into a history of trying to squeeze too much out of thin margins and a kind of insignificant consistency” – i.e., this team has tried to do too much under a low ceiling for too long and this could be the season it catches up with them.

Atlanta United FC
3-6-4, 13 pts., 17 gf, 16 ga (+1), home 3-3-1, away 0-3-3; 12th East, 22nd overall
Last 10:    LWTTLTLLLT
Venue:      AHAHHAHHAA
They are winless in eight. That says it all and everything.
My April 6th Take
“They have plenty of weapons, they look good and smart on TV and, at the end of it all, they’re three points off first place…and yet, watching that loss at Toronto made an impression.” The correct impression, as it happens.

Club du Foot Montreal
3-7-3, 12 pts., 17 gf, 31 ga (-14); home 1-2-1, road 2-5-2, 13th East, 25th overall
Last 10:    LLLWTTLLLL
Venue:      AAAHHAAHHA
In so many words, a team in free-fall, one with 15 goals allowed over their past four games and a 1-7-2 record over their past 10 games. Shit, meet show.
My April 6th Take
I, like a lot of people, expected them to start collecting points when they started playing at home, but they’ve collected just four of 12 so far.

Chicago Fire FC
2-8-4, 10 pts., 13 gf, 26 ga (-13); home 2-5-1, away 0-3-3; 14th East, 28th overall
Last 10:    TLWTLTLLLL
Venue:      AAHAHHHAHH
For their fans’ sake, burn it all down, bury the ashes in the Nevada desert and start all over.
My April 6th Take
“Valiantly as they’ve played in every game I’ve watched, the way they keep ending up on the wrong end of results tells you what you need to know about the Fire.” I think even the “valiant” thing has dried up. It’s just pain.

New England Revolution
2-9-1, 7 pts., 9 gf, 25 ga (-16); home 1-4-1, away 1-5-0; 15th East, 29th overall
Last 10:    LLTWLLLWLL
Venue:      AHHHAAHAAH
They’ve had two wins all season, both of them by a 1-0 margin. Charlotte at home and Chicago on the road. This is anathema among some Timbers fans, apparently, but I don’t like Caleb Porter, because he seems like a massive asshole, and therefore enjoy seeing him fail.
My April 6th Take
“No matter how much the symptoms look the same, some distance separates the standard CONCACAF Champions’ Cup curse from...let's go with sucking.” Neither “things” nor morale has improved since then…

With that, I'm spent. We'll do this again around...six (MLS) weeks from now.

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