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| Which is which? And can you trust what I tell you? |
(* With how often I’ve neglected Cincy, through both good times and bad, I have, at most, a fingernail’s hold on neglectful divorced dad going through…just all of it.)
That said, rooting for both kids makes plenty of sense given the state of play. They both need the win – Cincinnati to keep up with the Supporters’ Shield race/melee, the Timbers to keep in touching distance of hosting a first-round playoff game (or, worst case, just making the damn playoffs) – so any and all results serve a purpose one way or the other…and yet, and as much as I hate to ask, things have been going really well for Cincinnati lately – I know; no, I know – but it has just been so, so long since the Timbers, y’know, had a good season. I’m not asking Cincinnati to let them win, I’m just making things emotionally complicated the way a parent does when, deep down, he’s absolutely asking Cincinnati to let Portland win, but not in a fake way, because I still want them to feel good. Wow, did it feel good to get that off my chest! (Father of two, going great…)
Moving on…
Per the title, the rest of this post throws out the first five coherent thoughts I’d tell fans of one team about the other. My list won’t be everyone’s list, so I’d (literally) love to have anyone who finds this toss in their own thoughts in either the comments or to the skeets when this goes up on Bluesky…somewhat related, I stopped checking Reddit, almost certainly from failure to match the intensity of, oh, 75% of the posters. That’s to say, I miss some chatter, just not that chatter.
Right, like they do in MLS, let’s kick this off with the home team.
The First Five Things I’d Tell FC Cincy Fans About the Portland Timbers
1) Press Them
Portland has improved with playing out of the back, but, between the small field, the turf, and the way the Timbers play (i.e., patiently across the back, then forward as if finally accepting bankruptcy), Noonan should feel confident about playing the usual on/off press. To get more specific, I’d keep one midfielder close to (though not tight on) to David Ayala, and get pressure to whomever the Timbers play wide and, when that breaks, fall back pretty damn quick. That tracks with the Timbers’ famous preference for transition, but you can resolve that if you (or Pat Noonan, as your talisman…)
2) Keep the Defense Deep(-Ish)
While Portland has a couple long-ball threats in the roster – Kevin Kelsy (wait? you two know each other?) and Antony (more below) – the bigger risk comes from them keeping the ball on the ground and playing it past Pavel Bucha and…the guy who plays next him (because Tah Anunga’s out, right? right) to other attacking Timbers in full flight. Portland may look to the space behind Luca Orellano when he goes forward by pushing a capable, largely consistent Juan Davis Mosquera high, or they might push Jimer Fory higher later just to mix things up (assuming Fory starts/plays), but them breaking up the middle, under control and on the ground, feels like the best way to unsettle the Cincy’s backline, especially if they can keep the move between the channels. Hence the argument for giving that backline time to react. Not least because…
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| Antony, in Cincy's darkest timeline. |
With the exception of Matt Miazga and maayyybe Lukas Engel, I give all three of Miles Robinson, Gilberto Flores and Teenage Hadebe decent ratings on recovery speed – and yet I wouldn’t give any of ‘em a chance to keep up with Antony if he gets so much as a half step ahead. If Cincy runs with a high defensive line, the first thing I’d expect Phil Neville to do is stick Antony to Miazga (which, yes, assumes he starts) and tell any Timber with the leg to hit it to play him in behind. He’s a risk any time he has space to run into and defenders to run past, but I can’t think of a bigger gamble than leaving space behind for Antony.
[UPDATE: Per a skeet by Jeremy Peterman on Bluesky, Orellano is out with "leg" and won't suit up for Cincy. Another Bluesky account (Bucket of Junk) made a case for Ender Echenique, who showed all right against Charlotte...where he played on Cincy's left.]
At least on my cheat-sheet, Luca’s playing his best soccer of 2025 lately. Passing more play through him [or Echenique] serves at least two purposes: 1) he’ll spread the field, for the most part and so long as he plays (mostly) on the left (I’d feel good about switching him as needed), and 2) keeping him high pins Mosquera back, ideally, and takes him off the board as an attacking option. Engel provides good enough cover behind (if with enough support from a d-mid; then again, see No. 1) to make me feel okay about gambling on Orellano [Echenieque/other] staying high with few thoughts of what’s behind him.
5) If Denkey Can Start, Yes
He came on late versus Charlotte FC (and that game…heartbreaking), but I don’t know how long he could go against the Timbers. The turf probably enters into it (can’t even what Denkey’s issue was, honestly), but I’d give Denkey as many minutes as his body can handle. I’d also keep risk of injury front of mind – especially given the artificial surface – on the grounds that I'd rather have him for the stretch-run/playoffs than the half-meaningless game on Saturday, but I do like his chances of getting the better of Portland’s center backs, if more collectively than individually.
That covers Cincinnati. Now, let’s pick up our chairs, turn ‘round and stare at the monitor as if we’d never seen the notes above. Oh, and I’ll try to come up with a fresh five things, even though the mirage image of some notes above – e.g., do keep Antony as close to Miazga (or your vote as the slowest Cincy defender) as possible, and why not make a duel of the Mosquera/Orellano thing and see if it defines the game? (I like both players’ chances well enough, fwiw.)
The First Five Things I’d Tell Timbers Fans About FC Cincy
1) Try to Win the Midfield
With Anunga out, Cincy’s near the bottom of the barrel for central midfield depth. Their (excellent) regular, Obinna Nwobodo, hasn’t played for weeks, if not months, same with their utility-guy, Yuya Kubo, and the role didn’t suit Gerardo Valenzuela so good when they played him deep and centrally a couple weeks ago (maybe here, and curse the demon weed). If there’s a reasonable safe way to hold Ayala back and cheat two midfielders high (e.g., Cristhian Paredes and David Da Costa?), while bombing Ian Smith(?) and Mosquera forward (to the extent responsible) while keeping both Antony and Felipe Mora/Kelsy forward, I’d run with it. It would only be a conceptual departure from the 3-4-1-2 Portland has rocked lately – i.e., more of a 3-3-2-2 (did I just make up that formation? can neither confirm nor deny). That's just spit-ballin'; honestly, a 3-4-1-2 with Joao Ortiz beside Ayala and Da Costa playing under two forwards feels like the best/safest, but I still want someone (either Paredes or Ortiz) to get on Bucha, because that dude is their most secure first step to safe ball progression. Which brings me to the game’s biggest wrinkle. Yes, I’m talking about…
2) Evander
The Brazilian still goes way the hell back to get the ball – seems like he drifts left more often than not – and he will try to draw as many fouls as he can inside Portland’s half. The freekicks remain every bit as deadly and, unless my eyes deceive me, Evander has raised his already high level for scoring bangers from range, whether by dead ball or in the run of play. Based on nothing more than loose reading of body language, he seems happier in Cincinnati (let that motivate you however it will) and that might bring extra motivation. I’d refrain from sticking a player on him, but instead focus on keeping close enough to block long-range attempts on goal (and, remember, the man's shot goes from 0-to-120-to-your-'keeper-picking-the-ball-out-of-the-net real quick) and standing him up for as long as possible before lunging in. And, yes, all that is all 100% easier typed than done.
3) Patient Impatience
So long as Cincy presses – and I’d put more money on that than I’d put on them sitting back and forcing the Timbers to play – opportunities to counter will (or should) come. If Neville handed me the whistle and clipboard for a day (and I’d say yes, if after a year’s worth of motivational speaking lessons and some Jordan Peterson videos about how to be a bigger lobster(? or some shit like that)), I’d tell the team to get vertical often as it can early – just to see if they can steal one – but to work smarter about finding breaks as the game goes on. They'll hit a point of final desperation, if it comes to it, but that's adjusting after the game plan went up a flames. Cincinnati won’t press all game and I’d take those spells to give everyone a breather. Bottom line, when it’s on – especially if fucking anyone sees Antony isolated against Miazga – hit that shit like Clarence Carter. Those special occasions aside, do everything you can – e.g., send one player forward, drop one back, pull ‘em apart, tie ‘em in a bow – to get into that central space behind Cincy’s midfield, because thar be gold back there.
4) In the Event You Press…
I’ve seen a couple teams throw Cincinnati all the way off by throwing players at either of DeAndre Yedlin or Orellano (or Engel, depending on the lineup) and pinning them to the sideline with numbers. Cincy struggles hard when they do, but they're generally capable at playing out of the back, but nothing draws Evander back – and further from goal – faster than not getting service from Bucha (or Anunga). I’ve seen improvement in Portland’s press, if mostly in an “often as they use it” way, and, when Orellano doesn’t take it around you, or they don’t play a long diagonal to the weak side, it can be pretty easy to keep Cincy’s attack in front of you. And that will, or at least it can, go a long way.
5) Jimer Fory & the Subs
This assumes he’s available, but I really like him starting on the right side of a back three and with a player, almost any player, running in front of him. Given what Cincinnati can do on its best day, ignoring what I said above about a 3-3-2-2 probably makes sense, especially early in the game. Regardless of how well Portland survives whatever onslaught Cincy throws at them, I want (not hope) to see Phil Neville get his subs on early and in waves. The core – e.g., Finn Surman, Dario Zuparic, Antony, Da Costa, Ayala and, if he starts, Fory – should stay on as long as they’re fit and good to, but I’d change players, especially attacking players (e.g., Omir Fernandez and Ariel Lassiter for any given spare and/or flailing starter) with an eye to scrambling Cincy’s assignments.
That’s it and that’s plenty. For what it’s worth, I think the biggest drama will turn on Portland ability to score and when they do it. And even if they go up one goal early, or even two, Cincinnati will be a good bet to pull back one point or three so long as Evander remains on the field…and I haven’t even touched on what they might get out of Valenzuela in the right set up.
Bottomline, Cincinnati’s the better team and in a way I don’t feel that I need to qualify. I see more paths to points for them than I do for the Timbers, even in Portland. I’ve also seen Cincy’s vulnerabilities multiple times this season, so…serve it up.
5) If Denkey Can Start, Yes
He came on late versus Charlotte FC (and that game…heartbreaking), but I don’t know how long he could go against the Timbers. The turf probably enters into it (can’t even what Denkey’s issue was, honestly), but I’d give Denkey as many minutes as his body can handle. I’d also keep risk of injury front of mind – especially given the artificial surface – on the grounds that I'd rather have him for the stretch-run/playoffs than the half-meaningless game on Saturday, but I do like his chances of getting the better of Portland’s center backs, if more collectively than individually.
That covers Cincinnati. Now, let’s pick up our chairs, turn ‘round and stare at the monitor as if we’d never seen the notes above. Oh, and I’ll try to come up with a fresh five things, even though the mirage image of some notes above – e.g., do keep Antony as close to Miazga (or your vote as the slowest Cincy defender) as possible, and why not make a duel of the Mosquera/Orellano thing and see if it defines the game? (I like both players’ chances well enough, fwiw.)
The First Five Things I’d Tell Timbers Fans About FC Cincy
1) Try to Win the Midfield
With Anunga out, Cincy’s near the bottom of the barrel for central midfield depth. Their (excellent) regular, Obinna Nwobodo, hasn’t played for weeks, if not months, same with their utility-guy, Yuya Kubo, and the role didn’t suit Gerardo Valenzuela so good when they played him deep and centrally a couple weeks ago (maybe here, and curse the demon weed). If there’s a reasonable safe way to hold Ayala back and cheat two midfielders high (e.g., Cristhian Paredes and David Da Costa?), while bombing Ian Smith(?) and Mosquera forward (to the extent responsible) while keeping both Antony and Felipe Mora/Kelsy forward, I’d run with it. It would only be a conceptual departure from the 3-4-1-2 Portland has rocked lately – i.e., more of a 3-3-2-2 (did I just make up that formation? can neither confirm nor deny). That's just spit-ballin'; honestly, a 3-4-1-2 with Joao Ortiz beside Ayala and Da Costa playing under two forwards feels like the best/safest, but I still want someone (either Paredes or Ortiz) to get on Bucha, because that dude is their most secure first step to safe ball progression. Which brings me to the game’s biggest wrinkle. Yes, I’m talking about…
2) Evander
The Brazilian still goes way the hell back to get the ball – seems like he drifts left more often than not – and he will try to draw as many fouls as he can inside Portland’s half. The freekicks remain every bit as deadly and, unless my eyes deceive me, Evander has raised his already high level for scoring bangers from range, whether by dead ball or in the run of play. Based on nothing more than loose reading of body language, he seems happier in Cincinnati (let that motivate you however it will) and that might bring extra motivation. I’d refrain from sticking a player on him, but instead focus on keeping close enough to block long-range attempts on goal (and, remember, the man's shot goes from 0-to-120-to-your-'keeper-picking-the-ball-out-of-the-net real quick) and standing him up for as long as possible before lunging in. And, yes, all that is all 100% easier typed than done.
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| When the time comes. And you do. |
So long as Cincy presses – and I’d put more money on that than I’d put on them sitting back and forcing the Timbers to play – opportunities to counter will (or should) come. If Neville handed me the whistle and clipboard for a day (and I’d say yes, if after a year’s worth of motivational speaking lessons and some Jordan Peterson videos about how to be a bigger lobster(? or some shit like that)), I’d tell the team to get vertical often as it can early – just to see if they can steal one – but to work smarter about finding breaks as the game goes on. They'll hit a point of final desperation, if it comes to it, but that's adjusting after the game plan went up a flames. Cincinnati won’t press all game and I’d take those spells to give everyone a breather. Bottom line, when it’s on – especially if fucking anyone sees Antony isolated against Miazga – hit that shit like Clarence Carter. Those special occasions aside, do everything you can – e.g., send one player forward, drop one back, pull ‘em apart, tie ‘em in a bow – to get into that central space behind Cincy’s midfield, because thar be gold back there.
4) In the Event You Press…
I’ve seen a couple teams throw Cincinnati all the way off by throwing players at either of DeAndre Yedlin or Orellano (or Engel, depending on the lineup) and pinning them to the sideline with numbers. Cincy struggles hard when they do, but they're generally capable at playing out of the back, but nothing draws Evander back – and further from goal – faster than not getting service from Bucha (or Anunga). I’ve seen improvement in Portland’s press, if mostly in an “often as they use it” way, and, when Orellano doesn’t take it around you, or they don’t play a long diagonal to the weak side, it can be pretty easy to keep Cincy’s attack in front of you. And that will, or at least it can, go a long way.
5) Jimer Fory & the Subs
This assumes he’s available, but I really like him starting on the right side of a back three and with a player, almost any player, running in front of him. Given what Cincinnati can do on its best day, ignoring what I said above about a 3-3-2-2 probably makes sense, especially early in the game. Regardless of how well Portland survives whatever onslaught Cincy throws at them, I want (not hope) to see Phil Neville get his subs on early and in waves. The core – e.g., Finn Surman, Dario Zuparic, Antony, Da Costa, Ayala and, if he starts, Fory – should stay on as long as they’re fit and good to, but I’d change players, especially attacking players (e.g., Omir Fernandez and Ariel Lassiter for any given spare and/or flailing starter) with an eye to scrambling Cincy’s assignments.
That’s it and that’s plenty. For what it’s worth, I think the biggest drama will turn on Portland ability to score and when they do it. And even if they go up one goal early, or even two, Cincinnati will be a good bet to pull back one point or three so long as Evander remains on the field…and I haven’t even touched on what they might get out of Valenzuela in the right set up.
Bottomline, Cincinnati’s the better team and in a way I don’t feel that I need to qualify. I see more paths to points for them than I do for the Timbers, even in Portland. I’ve also seen Cincy’s vulnerabilities multiple times this season, so…serve it up.
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