Minnesota United FC 1-1 Portland Timbers: Balling with the Elite, Running from the Hoi Polloi

Mood. I think, or thereabouts.

Anyone either have a guess, or do any of you wonderful people actually know, the number of points that the Portland Timbers since they just missed out the Leagues Cup semifinals?

The answer is two. Two fucking points out of 12 available. If you take out the two Leagues Cup wins (against Liga MX’s teams cramming for the start of the Clausura), the Timbers have a thin two wins over the past ten (10!) games. Those count as rays of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy 2-5-3 run – by Jove, wasn’t that road win at Los Angeles FC fun? remember that one? wasn’t it ever so fun? – and, in some ways, it was the fucking awful road form that got one to wondering whether the floor had given out, only without all of us doe-eyed believers catching on, a la Wile E. Coyote. Between shutouts at Toronto FC (probably out of the playoffs next weekend) and FC “Almost Certainly Cooked” Dallas (give it time…I kid, I kid), and contributing to an existential threat by being the only team to hand Real Salt Lake a road win over their past 10 games (related, get a load of the opposition in their four recent home wins: v DC, v STL, v HOU, v SJ), fans should be throwing rocks at their TVs and expensive beers at the executive suites. (And, should you ever get a clear line on Merritt Paulson, throw hard, people; throw hard).

And yet, somehow, the Timbers just took the second-best team in the West to within five minutes (with stoppage!) of a loss at home. Things still seem okay!

Minnesota United FC 1-1 Portland Timbers
About the Game, Briefly and Broadly
My notes have this as “chess, with the odd collapse” – by which I (think I) meant, a game mostly contained between the two teams’ back lines with the odd breakthrough. For what it’s worth, the highlights support that take better than the final stats; the latter have me wondering whether I nodded off during the Timbers better moments. Stranger things, etc.

A smarter take – and the Official Xg backs it up a bit (how does one capitalize “xG”?) – holds that both teams came close to a decisive break throughout, only to have the last line of defense snuff out the danger. For (at least) the second week running, all Timbers defenders covered balls through and over the midfield like they’d read and absorbed the job description – again, the Finn Surman/Dario Zuparic feels like the ticket I want to ride until Portland runs outta gas (and Jimer Fory is, like, the best jerrycan they’ve had in seasons; also, yes (SIGH!), hold this thought) – and that kept Minnesota off the board, if with the odd, how-did-he-miss-that(?) moment (thinking Joaquin Pereyra, with most of the the goal at his mercy just after the half). Minnesota created a steady drip of chances throughout – credit to James Pantemis for keeping out his share (PHIL, just choose a guy!) – something that has yielded them (shit!) twelve more points worth of success than the Timbers have managed.

Portland Timbers v FC Cincinnati: A Preview/Parenting Crisis

Which is which? And can you trust what I tell you?

To make one thing clear from the top, I may or may not have two children*, but there’s no question as to which is the favorite. Even with the past three and two-thirds season asking one of them, “why can’t you be more like your brother?,” the Portland Timbers will always be my team and FC Cincinnati my sincerely cherished side-piece. [Psst...I love you, girl! I’ll leave her for you, I swear.]

(* With how often I’ve neglected Cincy, through both good times and bad, I have, at most, a fingernail’s hold on neglectful divorced dad going through…just all of it.)

That said, rooting for both kids makes plenty of sense given the state of play. They both need the win – Cincinnati to keep up with the Supporters’ Shield race/melee, the Timbers to keep in touching distance of hosting a first-round playoff game (or, worst case, just making the damn playoffs) – so any and all results serve a purpose one way or the other…and yet, and as much as I hate to ask, things have been going really well for Cincinnati lately – I know; no, I know – but it has just been so, so long since the Timbers, y’know, had a good season. I’m not asking Cincinnati to let them win, I’m just making things emotionally complicated the way a parent does when, deep down, he’s absolutely asking Cincinnati to let Portland win, but not in a fake way, because I still want them to feel good. Wow, did it feel good to get that off my chest! (Father of two, going great…)

Moving on…

Per the title, the rest of this post throws out the first five coherent thoughts I’d tell fans of one team about the other. My list won’t be everyone’s list, so I’d (literally) love to have anyone who finds this toss in their own thoughts in either the comments or to the skeets when this goes up on Bluesky…somewhat related, I stopped checking Reddit, almost certainly from failure to match the intensity of, oh, 75% of the posters. That’s to say, I miss some chatter, just not that chatter.

Right, like they do in MLS, let’s kick this off with the home team.

Club America 1-1 Portland Timbers, Then a "Loss": Penalties & Positivity

Make that pass again, Felipe. I'm waiting...

Take it. Take your meaningless, non-regulation, asterisk-weighted win, Club America. It means nothing, not even to you.

Oh, and stopping the game to put a lid on “discriminatory chants”? Sign me up for an all-day pass on that shit…and if I could come up with a functional way to punish a team for one of their shithead fans pointing a laser into a goalkeeper’s eyes during a penalty shootout, I’d do it tomorrow. Too easy to game, sadly. At any rate…

Club America 1-1 Portland Timbers; 5-(maybe)4 in penalties
About the Game
I can’t remember the last time I saw the Timbers counter-punch so cleanly. David Da Costa clipped a ripe peach of an assist off the outside of his right to send Ariel Lassiter clean through for Portland’s opening goal, but Felipe Mora’s chest-trap, reverse through-ball to Juan David Mosquera set my nether to fluttering and they still haven’t calmed down (might be in here). Sure, Mosquera pissed it away with a touch long enough for the record books, but the sweet, sweet memory still titillates.

America took over the rest of the first half and, factually, had more to show for it than I recalled (e.g., 7 shots, 2 on goal, with healthy side of corner kicks), but the Timbers defended stoutly and well (hold that thought) – up to and including Jimer Fory retreating behind an extended Maxime Crepeau to clip a(n offside) shot clear (also, remember him foundly, for…)

I didn’t see Fory’s first yellow card – heard it was something about dissent, and there’s this whole chicken-egg thesis waiting to be written about refs and their thin skin – but no decent ref gives a second yellow for the foul he committed, and yet…the Aristocrats! When the theretofore largely hapless America scored an equalizer off their 19th nervous corner (reference/gotta step there, Mr. Felipe Mora), all signs pointed to the wheels spinning off into outer orbit for the Timbers. Without dipping too far to over-determining, I credit Phil Neville for making a couple smart subs for breaking from depth – Kevin Kelsy for a reasonably overwhelmed Mora and Antony for a drifting Da Costa – and it just took a combination of holding on defensively and scaring America off throwing every player, plus a couple asshole fans, to carry the Timbers to one-third of a loss, instead of a full one.

Portland Timbers 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes: A Tale of Wild Cards & Cliches

Killing himself. Wild, right?

For those who missed it, Preston Judd had a big game in the San Jose Earthquakes’ 3-3 draw versus Houston Dynamo FC. Two weeks after that opportunist’s brace, he teed up the winner in San Jose’s win at the till-then utterly hapless Los Angeles Galaxy.

Judd scored the late equalizer in San Jose’s 1-1 draw at the Portland Timbers, of course, but guess who fired the shot that led to the rebound he put back? Ousseni Bouda. Now guess who Judd set up for the winner against the Galaxy? Yep, Bouda.

When prepping to face the ‘Quakes, any sane coach would key on The Cristians (Espinoza and Arango) and Josef Martinez. Martinez didn’t suit up yesterday, something I think was known, but who knows? The larger point is, who builds a game-plan around stopping Ousseni Bouda and Preston-fucking-Judd?

Still, what is a wild card except an old-school cheat code? And yet…is that what really happened?

About the Game
I only half-watch games when I see them live (to anyone wondering why I don’t go to many of them), so I just sat down to re-watch the second half. Even that confirmed a handful of loose perceptions I had from the first half – e.g., the Timbers performed soccer well enough, but the ‘Quakes always looked that little bit more incisive, Dave Romney won every 1-v-1 against Santiago Moreno and basically took him out of the game, etc. Still, and despite what was scored as Portland’s 0.55 xG versus San Jose’s 1.09 at the half, the Timbers played well enough to make me think they would hold it together and had a punter’s chance of figuring it out before the final whistle. Full disclosure, I missed Ian Harkes’ second yellow card – of which, funny! (i.e., his foul on Diego Chara was soft, without being wholly, laughably unreasonable) – plus a couple early shots (which, if The Mothership means to earn its keep, should be in the full highlights). As for the +/- 15 minutes after Harkes’ 52nd -minute sending off? Yeah, caught all of that. Soccer has at least a half dozen cliches and, as just demonstrated by San Jose, a team playing like 12 men after going down to 10 is very much one of them.

Portland Timbers 2-1 St. Louis CITY FC: Anchor & Inspiration

Antony's contribution: a visual

The Portland Timbers have a long history of slow starts to the regular season. Now off to what I’m told is their strongest start to a season since 2013, and perhaps with a nostalgic glint in their eye to how they once had to rescue entire seasons, the Timbers have acquired a late habit of starting at half speed, even spotting the opposition the first goal.

I flagged the latter as potential kiss of death in one preview thread our another on Bluesky, but, for the second match day in a row, Portland snatched victory for the slackening jaws of defeat with a 2-1 home win over St. Louis CITY FC. Who knows? Maybe the Timbers only feel like their true and best selves when chasing something, whether season or game?

About the Game
Whether due to players they had missing (Eduard Lowen) to caretaker coach, David Critchley, trying to teach his old team new tricks, St. Louis rewrote my expectations by keeping the ball on the ground and working it forward from the back. They stretched the field occasionally (see the first attempt in the full highlights), but they looked up to playing through Portland and, for most of the second half, the Timbers seemed open to allowing it. While not totally helpless – a couple slip passes sent (I think) Santiago Moreno and Kevin Kelsy just behind St. Louis’ last defender – Portland spent most of the first half a step behind both the most recent play and the game. They escaped the first half without giving up a goal, but even that took a double save from James Pantemis on two (or three) clear, close shots jointly gifted to St. Louis by some light dicking around at the back and a clumsy touch by Joao Ortiz. Portland saved their best moments for first half stoppage time – including a shot at redemption for Ortiz that he side-footed softly to nowhere – but the cobwebs lingered long enough into the second half for Portland to give up the first goal 50 minutes in. Former Timbers academy kid, Akil Watts, put St. Louis up 1-0 when he created and capitalized on a wee crisis in front of Pantemis’ goal. Watch the highlights on that goal and you’ll see Watts have time to both give up on the play then get back into it before any Timbers defender even noticed him. You hate to see it, but, stick around. It gets better!

As with last match day’s win over Colorado, this game turned on a vividly decisive moment – specifically, Antony alley-ooping the ball over Tomas Totland, then backing Henry Kessler into his own 18 before equalizing just around the defender’s left shoulder. It was a move sweet and classy enough for The Mothership to give it a long-form puff highlight of its own. From that point to the final whistle, the Timbers played like a stalled car jump-started by a king-sized battery. Legs came to life, movement improved all over with David Ayala acting as an all-purpose gear box that kept the machine running and racing, shifting slower and faster as needed; they even forced Roman Burki to reprise Pantemis' first-half double save in order to keep the game from running away from them. While St. Louis never fully faded out of the game, I have this line in my notes about “losing their nerve, grasping for chances instead of creating them” that sums it up nicely. Had you split the game between St. Louis’ best period and Portland’s, I’m still guessing the Timbers outplayed them over the sum of it, but the final numbers broke close to even and St. Louis are no doubt gnashing teeth and rending garments over not just losing Ayala on the winner, but failing to see him at all. Just heartbreaking defending, but Ayala fully earned a slab of the log after that performance.

Portland Timbers 3-1 Houston Dynamo FC: Goal, Assist, Yellow Card

Closest I could get given the search...

A referee has to fuck up a lot to get a nod in any post I put up, res ipso loquitur, etc.. Also, congrats to the handful of people outside the greater Portland and Houston metro areas who saw the Timbers v the Dynamo and thought, “yeah, I guess I don’t have anything better tonight” because that was a pretty fun game to watch. Right? That was fun, right? What, you’re too big for salt water taffy now? Okay, big shot. Fine. (No, I’m not. You're the one going through separation anxiety!)

The point is, the game wasn’t boring, predictions of an incompetent Portland attack slap-fighting a dour Houston defense that barely noticed them held their own sad disco in my head as opposed to crossing over into and ruining the real world. I got a couple things wrong in my Scouting Report on Houston and I couldn’t be happier about it. Time to pick through the guts!

About the Game
The Portland Timbers got off to an electric start on their way to a 3-1 home win that looked like it could have ended 5-1 before the halftime whistle. After a ball squirted forward out of a tackle on Antony (probably) Jimer Fory broke down Houston’s right with everyone in orange furiously back-pedaling in time; his cross to Santiago Moreno actually found Daniel Steres first, but, per one of several themes that repeated/rhymed across the first half, he poked his clearance to Moreno, who fed Felipe Mora, who (probably) announced his wife was pregnant (everyone seemed happier than usual) after scoring Portland’s first goal. I know I wasn’t the only Timbers fan with dreams of jelly drops and a blow-out win dancing in my head over the next (literally) six minutes because Houston handed Portland at least two more tantalizing transition opportunities between the opener and Houston’s equalizer. There’s not much to say about the latter than why is Fory (barely) defending two players and great cross by Jack McGlynn (which means I got some things right in the Scouting Report), but it didn’t take long for the game to revert back to the Dynamo panicking and Portland taking advantage. Once Antony started and finished his run up the right for the Timbers’ second goal – tied together by an inch-perfect pass by Mora – it felt like the only question left to ask was how many more Portland could score. As it happens, the answer to that question was one. The Timbers scored just one more goal between the halftime whistle and the one that called the game – it involved the same players too, Mora and Antony – and that made for a gently nervous start to the second half. Assuming I’m not mashing them into some kind of omni-clip, I counted at least four times over the second half where Houston meticulously played the ball to the edge of Portland’s 18, and even got their toe in it, before the last, desperate shot went wide or smacked into Kamal Miller, Fory, of (most likely) Finn Surman. Houston head coach, Ben Olsen, added Erik Sviatchenko at the beginning of the second half, prompting the first of several “wait, why not start him?” questions, and that got the Dynamo’s feet under them for almost 25…vaguely menacing minutes. If I oversold Houston’s competence in the Scouting Report (I did), this was the place: this team works the ball up the field as well as any team in MLS – particularly when they heed Olsen’s pleas for “CALM” – but the end-result amounts to driving a freshly-paved highway that dead-ends into some Houston neighborhood built off-code and well beneath a flood-plain. A result can be lost in one bad moment – I get it – and, by the same token, any of Houston’s long progressive possessions could have ended with a second equalizer. Back in the real world, they didn't. Moreover, at least eight of them ended with four to five Timbers running at three to four Houston players prioritizing getting back to their own goal, by necessity, because the onslaught didn’t give them the luxury of setting up the optimal match ups. Carrying the point forward…

Colorado Rapids 0-3 Portland Timbers: Comfortable in Commerce City

When you feel confident, you can do anything...

Think I mentioned this on Bluesky, but some dude on subreddit (who heard it from a friend of a friend’s co-worker, who heard it from her boss) floated the argument that the Portland Timbers were better than they earned after four games. Between Kamal Miller’s (stupid fucking) red card in Game 1 and the ref getting drunkenly novel with the concept of “advantage” in Game 4, they'd tripped themselves more than they'd been tripped, basically.

Did Timbers fans just get proof of concept with yesterday’s subtly lopsided 3-0 win at the Colorado Rapids, or…

About the Game
As happens more often than I’d like to admit, the Scouting Report I posted on…think it was Friday, but who cares because it went out the window within the first 20 minutes. The Colorado Rapids played like a constipated shadow of the team I’d watched from afar and the Portland Timbers looked – and, to be clear, this feels like a typo as I’m tapping it out…capable. We didn’t get seamless perfection by any means – see Jimer Fory at a dead sprint toward his own goal to corral an eighth-minute breakaway by Kevin Cabral (hold that thought*) and Finn Surman eating the entire fake Djordje Mihailovic baited him with at the edge of the fucking six – but the one, literally massive thing that stood out was how immediately calm and connected the Timbers looked playing out of the back. David Ayala offering himself as a first option and seeming to have a plan for his first pass went a long damn way with that; whether turning out of the pressure, dropping the ball to someone behind, who then played it forward to either Ayala or another option (Santiago Moreno, often as not), Portland had fewer problems playing out of back than they have so far in this young season. The defensive shape held up pretty well too, if with an assist from whatever the hell was going on with Rapids; I saw no evidence of the movement and connectivity I’d come to expect after watching 90 minutes of them for the Scouting Report. The Timbers looked, for lack of a better word, comfortable for the first time in 2025 – even when Colorado upped the pressure. The Rapids found a couple chances, here and there, mostly through Reggie “Grumpy” Cannon firing unchecked crosses from the right, but a state of disconnection plagued them through most of the game. With the game knotted on zeroes and the ref puckering up for the halftime whistle, the breakthrough finally came. After trying to play through the brick the Rapids dropped in front of their goal, someone hopefully played the ball wide to David Da Costa. When he kicked the ball back into the mixer, just as hopefully, it caught Josh Atencio’s ankle and bobbled into the Rapids’ goal. And thank gods for that, because, per the official statisticians (aka, the broadcast team) zero shots had been fired on goal, in anger or otherwise, to that point. That first goal opened the game, as goals by the road team often do, and the Rapids lost little time in making a second and worse mistake to allow Portland's second. For whatever reason, three defenders lumped around Felipe Mora like he was [Insert Global Star Name] and their left-sided defender drifting to cover Eric Miller (just…why, and hold that thought%) and that left Antony footloose and fancy-free up the middle of the field and, I assume, a little baffled at his good fortune before slotting home the insurance goal that the Timbers ultimately did not need. That goal arrived just prior to the 50th minute, but it effectively ended the game as a contest. With a nod to the final xG in the official stats – just to note/celebrate it, the Timbers broke the elusive 1.0 xG barrier for the first time in 2025 yesterday - Colorado’s stats aren’t wildly off the Timbers’. And yet the question of which was the better team isn’t so much as half open. The question is why?

Colorado Rapids Scouting Report: Of Mirages & Mobility

Oasis or thirst-induced madness?

They did slip a bit last season, but that’s so 2024. It’s time to talk about this season and the…

Colorado Rapids
2-0-2, 8 pts., 6 gf, 4 ga (+2); home 0-0-1, away 2-0-1
Last Results: DDWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ STL (0-0 D); v FCD (3-3 D); @ ATX (1-0); @ SJ (2-1)

Big Picture
Tricky to frame, honestly. The Rapids’ results have improved (see above) but the highlights tell me that they needed every inch of Zac Steffen to earn even a draw last weekend at the San Jose Earthquakes – and he made a minimum of three implausible saves, so here’s to hoping Steffen’s drowning his sorrows with the rest of the U.S. Men’s National Team’s after that choke versus Panama (karma, motherfuckers). I didn’t watch a ton of Colorado in real-time – just the San Jose highlights and about 50 minutes of their weird ‘n’ wild 3-3 home draw versus FC Dallas a couple weeks back – but I saw the Rapids defending to the opposition defensive third, even in the snippets against the ‘Quakes, and aggressively all over the field. Working those young legs, apparently, and those have carried them to a solid run of results, fourth in the Western Conference and seventh overall. Something else I noticed: Colorado leaves a fair amount (read: a lot) of vertical space between that skirmishing front line and the back four (arguably led to this Dallas goal). That hasn’t caused them to bleed goals so far – even with that draw versus Dallas, they average just one goal against/game – and I’ll pick at reasons not named Zac Steffen below. Against that, they needed all of Dallas’ flaws to get that home draw and I’d call them damned lucky to win at San Jose (could easily have lost by the looks of it). I wouldn’t go so far as to call their record a mirage, not yet, but the Rapids are factually picking points off direct rivals in their climb up the table.

Portland Timbers 1-4 Vancouver Whitecaps: The Brutal Laws of the Game & a Game to Aggressively Memory-Hole

So long as it feels better later, I'm good.

The rules of the game, when read and applied in black and white, make some calls unavoidable, even inevitable. I don’t know what Kamal Miller could have done differently in real time – i.e., Brian White’s first touch took the ball into the space into which Miller was running to catch up, he couldn’t do much to avoid some contact, so the real question was always going to turn on the kind of contact that occurred (you can toggle to the video here, but the link doesn't appear to change to the specific highlight) – but, no matter how many details you drop into the basic scenario, there is simply no getting around the fact that Miller was the last defender covering White, an attacking player running into a one-v-one against the ‘keeper, Maxime Crepeau.

I’m confident some Portland Timbers fan will undertake a frame-by-frame deconstruction to argue that White went down too easily and that another other fan will explore the practical physics of how much weight Miller’s hand would have needed to exert upon White’s shoulder in order to cause him to actually fall: by my reading, calling White for a dive presents the only alternative to the red card and I don’t see enough in what happened to sustain a flop.

Miller’s red card wasn’t the only mistake the Timbers made today; it was merely the first. It took several more to get to today’s lopsided 1-4 loss to the Vancouver Whitecaps in Portland. Again. The smoldering question turns on how many of those mistakes followed from Miller’s red card against the balance of them that happened all on their own.

Before getting to that, or to anything else really, I want any Timbers fan who finds this post to keep one thought firmly in mind: as much as this result stings, maybe even embarrasses, it does not matter. It doesn’t matter even a little. Portland still has 33 games left to play and they remain very much alive on the bare terms of competing for an indulgently generous allotment of playoff slots. As MLS fans learn every season, and appear to unlearn after each regular season starts, a team can eat absolute clown-shit for three, even four months and still redeem the season with a good run in the playoffs – see, United FC, Atlanta, just one season ago (even if their own fans don’t entirely feel it). So, throw in the fact that the Timbers couldn’t field its best-possible team, take a deep breath, take the L (/spectator-sports equivalent of an enema), get out those binoculars so that you can take the longest possible view of the overall situation…

…which isn’t the same thing as thinking the Timbers are destined to have a good season, never mind a great one.

Thoughts from the Meat in a Seattle and Vancouver Sandwich, aka, a Portland Timbers Review/Preview

The state of play, in blues legend form.

I think of the Portland Timbers 1-1 road draw at the Seattle Sounders in terms of finding the proper balance between love and hate. Some markers are obvious – e.g., they gave up the inevitable soft goal (this one came with a pillow-top); against that they got a bold, dare I say spicy, goal from a source (Antony) that wasn’t the big three (Evander, Felipe Mora, and Jonathan Rodriguez).

All kinds of things fall into the space between those two poles, including the way Seattle took all the game the Timbers gave them (a lot), all the shots that resulted therefrom (could have been 1-2, even 1-4 against Portland), but for Portland’s James Pantemis rising to every occasion save the one. Moreover, the draw extended the Timbers’ lease in Seattle’s collective heads. The latter might not matter at all in the big picture, but it is really, really funny in the smaller one.

The rest of this post comes in two parts, the first looking back to the Saturday’s _______ game (still working on the adjective that fits it best), the second looking ahead to Wednesday’s big, big play-in against the Vancouver Whitecaps. Courtesy of motorsports, the lingering effects of Major League Soccer’s second-tier status in the North American landscape, the Timbers get to host that one despite the ninth-place seed. I think every Timbers fan knows that by now, but the thought still brightens my face with a mirthful smile two days later.

Sorry for the delay on this going up to anyone who noticed, but I had a family reunion this weekend and it was welcome and very nice.

The Rope-a-Dope That Ropes the Dope Every Time
I’ll start by reading some more old news into the record: Portland drawing Seattle – again, this is in Seattle – resulted in the Sounders dropping to fourth place (which puts them into a playoff series against Houston Dynamo FC…but is that actually better than facing Minnesota United FC?), missing an automatic berth in to the CONACAF Champions’ League, handing the Cascadia Cup to the Timbers in their own house, and losing Obed Vargas for the first game of their three-game series against Houston. Honestly, I don’t know how Timbers fans continue to breathe through all the laughter...

Colorado Rapids 2-1 Portland Timbers: You Can't Always Get What You Want

Wants and expectations do a weird little dance toward the end of every American spectator sports season – and, let’s face it, the fact they unfailingly end in playoffs lumps them all into the same species. On the one hand, you know that your local team could really use the unlikely win…but doesn’t that adjective, “unlikely,” speak to the reality of the situation?

After a season of reducing the Colorado Rapids to a wholly-owned subsidiary of their very own, the Portland Timbers finally lost a game to the Rapids when it mattered most. The 2-1 final score hints at the respectably tight final outcome, but I doubt even one Timbers fan cares, what with Portland at the bottom of a deeper hole, seven teams above them, Minnesota United FC breathing down their necks and the already playoff-bound Los Angeles Galaxy coming to call on Wednesday…

…run-on sentences suggest urgency.

The Basics
What could have been, you know? Had Jonathan Rodriguez buried that first-minute breakaway, had the offside flag not gone up, if pigs could fly and sing “Hurdy Gurdy Man” as they whisked around the sky, maybe Portland gets that early goal and tees up an early Timbers lead. That’s how every meeting between these two teams have played out in their two games in 2024 and, oh, how that has fucked over Colorado at a 4:1 ratio. The early goal fell on the Rapids’ side of the ledger instead – more on that goal later - which left Portland chasing them for a change. It took just 10 minutes for the Timbers to catch them, and on a far better goal, and the game settled into a back-and-forth duel with decent chances falling on both sides.

Portland's best chances fell to Antony, Colorado's to Rafael Navarro: anyone familiar with either team can tell you how that panned out…I kid, I kid. Frustrated as he made anyone with green and gold in their veins, I won’t shit on Antony too hard – more on that later, too. When the goal came, it turned less on something special from Navarro than on Portland’s and/or Juan David Mosquera’s catastrophic failure to mark a player of his (demonstrated) quality on a set-piece.

Club Leon 1-2 Portland Timbers: What You Learn & What Applies

Not tonight, not today, potato, pot-ah-to

I’m not going to dig too deep in the Portland Timbers late, glorious 2-1 win over Club Leon in Leagues Cup play tonight, mostly on the grounds that there’s not much to carry over between Leagues Cup and the MLS regular season…or is there?

Very Brief Summary
Leon looked set to make the 1-0 lead they laid down at the 12th minute hold up all night (also, helluva shot) – i.e., they collapsed on 50/50 balls fast enough to turn them into 60/40s, the Timbers struggled to play into their defensive third like a mime doing the wind bit, and they couldn’t really get so much going.

By my estimation, three players – Eryk Williamson (who had some redeeming to do), Dario Zuparic, and Antony – gave a hearty “not tonight!” to all that, and in that order. When they stepped forward, the rest of the team followed and they collectively started to punch out of the semi-defensive crouch suggested by Phil Neville’s line-up. They brought back the 50/50s, generally let Leon know they had a battle on their hands, if not a game. As the minutes ticked above 60, the Timbers took Leon out of their game.

It didn’t come together all at once, but it didn’t really have to. Without hazarding a guess at the actual game-plan, starting The Millers, Eric and Zac, on either side of Zuparic and Zac McGraw, screamed “just don’t fuck up.” Leon put the Timbers in plenty of jeopardy - more in the first half than the second (highlights!) - but they gave the Timbers heck over the first 10 minutes or so of the second too - but the rotations came through and Maxime Crepeau cleaned things up every time they didn’t. All that brings me to a phrase in my notes:

“highly episodic game”

At the 58th minute, Leon held an eleven-to-three advantage on shots. Some better than others, to be sure, but that impression of each team’s output tracked as roughly correct. In a live demonstration of how and why this result turned to Portland’s favor, the Timbers cut Leon’s advantage to eleven-to-six shots fired just two minutes later, courtesy of a flurry of them that started when Felipe Mora corralled a ball over the top, cut inside, found Evander, and sat poised to be the proud father of a succession of tertiary assist. The Timbers could only punch through here and there, basically, but, at that point, they'd already had their decisive moment just over 17 minutes earlier when Zac McGraw leveled the game with a perfect placement header off a corner kick. 

St. Louis CITY FC 0-0 Portland Timbers: Feeling Good (No, Really) Context-Free

A young Paul Giammati was the butt of the "wNbc" bit.

I don’t actually have a ton of blow-by-blow notes for the Portland Timbers' goal-less draw at St. Louis CITY FC (“wNbc!”), even though the game amounted to a series of isolated escapes from a general muddle. In all honesty, I’m mostly thrilled to see the Timbers keep their second clean sheet of 2024.

That’s not to say St. Louis didn’t come close here and there – e.g., Timbers understudy ‘keeper, James Pantemis, made a save on a Celio Pompeu shot through a thicket of bodies toward the end of the first half and Portland came within the width of Claudio Bravo’s lower leg of going down 0-1 in the 75th minute – and even that immediately followed Eduard Lowen hitting the right far post with a free kick. Tim Parker came close with a header at the 15th too (or thereabouts), Zac McGraw had to run down a through-ball (hat-tip to Joao Klauss for whiffing the shot!), but I doubt even the most rabid St. Louis fan would argue they stormed the castle. You’ll see nearly all of that in the highlights, but about 60% of the total run-time is devoted to dudes picking up yellow cards, with most going to St. Louis.

Portland had their chances – e.g., Jonathan Rodriguez’s shot to the far post around the 3rd minute (before he largely faded into anonymity) and another shot by Evander around the 17th – but their shooting statistics and lowly xG get the story mostly right.

And yet, even if this arguably counts as the Timbers least impressive attacking performance of 2024, it might count as something just as important: one of their more coherent playing performances. Unlike countless prior outings (well, not countless; they’ve played literally 18 games, so this can be quantified), Portland players looked generally connected and less like total strangers than they have across multiple halves of multiple games this season. Given how rare (more or less) wire-to-wire competence has been this season, I see that as something to celebrate.

Columbus Crew SC Scouting Report: We Have Seen the Enemy and All I Can Say Is...Shit.

Yes, that is Wilfred Nancy.

Full disclosure, I haven’t spent much time on Columbus Crew SC this season. Didn’t see the point. They’ve been getting results…until recently (but they also got arguably the biggest result) and the roster remains…stacked. At any rate, I have done some scouting and here is my report.

Some Basics

Columbus currently sits at fourth in the Eastern Conference (7th overall, fwiw) on 13 points and a 3-1-4 record. They remain stoutly unbeaten at home (3-0-1) and stubborn on the road (0-1-3; also, the loss at Charlotte FC has been dismissed as, in a word, bullshit) and boast one of the deepest and, currently, healthiest top-to-bottom roster in MLS and, in Wilfred Nancy, they have a head coach that gets the neutrals drooling. One can’t really blame the local fans for being content to the point of cockiness…and yet there are some questions.

They’re winless over the past four league games and arguably dropping points when they shouldn’t e.g., at Charlotte (loss), at a badly-hurting Nashville SC (a draw), and, insofar as you buy them, v DC United (draw). If you dig in a little deeper, you see a fall-off from 2023’s killer attacking pace of 1.97 goals/game; with just 10 goals scored in league play all season, they’re puttering around at 1.25 goals/game and, if you hit the link about contentment above, you’ll see creeping concerns that things ain’t the same without Cucho Hernandez. Then again, most signs point to him returning to the lineup after a wee suspension for some kind of tomfoolery.

The Lineup(s)

Unless I’m mistaken, Nancy has yet to deviate from a 3-4-2-1 formation, even when he rotates the squad dizzy as he did last week at Real Salt Lake. Were I a betting man – which I’m not, on the grounds that me putting money on anything means the opposite will happen – I’d expect Columbus to play the same lineup they did for their March 10 game against Chicago.

Houston Dynamo FC 1-0 Portland Timbers: A More Complete Incompleteness

One way to "break" one's duck...

In my mind, the biggest question about last night’s game was which team would score first. The Portland Timbers came (god)damn close in the fourth minute when my personal Man of the Match, Santiago Moreno, found Cristhian Paredes loose on the right side of the six (gotta be in here somewhere), but Houston Dynamo FC gored the proverbial duck first, thereby taking a 1-0 lead they never surrendered. Timbers lose, Timbers lose, etc.

By the way, does anyone know where the phrase “break your duck” comes from? Yeah, I could google it, but what’s the fun in that? This stays poultry-heavy for a few, btw. Moving on…

Lacking as it was in some familiar areas - e.g., attacking verve and total concentration in defense - I don’t have a lot of gripes about Portland’s overall performance yesterday and, as a handful of people reminded me on the Timbers subreddit, they don’t often leave the “great” state of Texas with points. A point or three would have been nice, sure, but all things considered, I find it harder to argue that Portland deserved some slice of the points last night than to argue that Houston didn’t deserve all of them.

Given the way Houston has played under Ben Olsen, this one was always going to be grind. The Dynamo play a patient, methodical game and, to use a phrase I may have forgotten to get to in the preview, they can hold onto the ball until they behoove themselves (it can take a while sometimes) to swing into the attack. No less important, Houston tends to have its ducks in a row behind the ball as they push forward – and, outside some frantic moments over the opening 15 minutes, that held  last night. Feel free to chicken-and-egg this until you, a regular human, unlocks the ability to lay eggs, but Houston reliably had at least one player in the right place at all times and all night. Whether that followed from the Timbers’ lack of execution or from the Dynamo just having really goddamn good defenders – e.g., Micael exceeded my already high expectations and, bluntly, Phil Neville should have Juan David Mosquera watch video of how Griffin Dorsey plays the same position until further notice – I can’t say and it just doesn’t matter at this point.

The reason it doesn’t matter? The Timbers made the game’s one, fatal mistake and that’s all this game had in it.

Houston Dynamo FC Scouting Report: Leading with the Chin, Boldly

That's...a choice.

This Saturday, the Portland Timbers take their strong start to the 2024 regular season the home of 2023’s “who did what now?” surprise team, Houston Dynamo FC. I did some scouting, this is my report.

Some Basics

Despite being just two games in their Major League Soccer regular season, CONCACAF Champions’ Le…Cup play has Houston six “real” games deep into the young 2024 season. They have won just one, versus St. Louis CITY FC at home, but they’re stumbling more than they should for a team that has hosted four at home. In their defense, they’ve played good capable, teams in them all, St. Louis and Columbus Crew SC twice, as well as a lively Red Bull New York team once (as for the 6th team…wait for the reveal). Another big picture notable: Houston has scored in every game but one – their CCC Home loss to Columbus last week.

Head coach Ben Olsen has tried a few formations, but it looks like he leans toward a somewhat conservative 4-3-3 (sample); fwiw, I’m not sure what he’ll do against the Timbers, but I’m interested. I hung “conservative” on his line-ups because he builds (most of) his middle threes around Jan Gregus, Artur, and either Coco Carrasqulla or Amine Bassi as the “creative” third. The forward line has (somewhat) consistently involved Ibrahim Aliyu and Sebastian Kowalcyzk, but has had dudes rotate in and out, mostly by absence or circumstance. As for the defense, the primary constants are Steve Clark in goal and young Brazilian Micael (Santos de Silva) in front of him with either Ethan Bartlow or Erik Sviatchenko for a partner. The left fullback and/or left-sided defender has rotated its cast as much as The Love Boat (yay old people!) and, yes, absolutely, there's Griffin Dorsey on the other side...also, hold that thought...

Olsen has this bunch playing a methodical, arguably labored, possession game that sees them play north of 450 passes in every game. I see that The Mothership’s “Availability Report” shows their absences as “To be announced” (because it’s fucking useless and/or may require you to create an account, not unlike the still-absent Form Guide (fuckers!), I'm not paranoid!), but I believe that Hector Herrera remains injured and it looks like they loaned out one-time big-time signing to Sebastian Ferrera, but he never got off paper when it came to entering Houston’s plans for league domination. Oh, and they are wafer-thin at forward, so Herrera starting looks like the only wild card.

New York City FC 1-2 Portland Timbers: A Long, Lucky Breather

No, really. We got this coach...

If there is a bigger cliché in soccer than the Tale of Two Halves, I don’t know what it is. New York City FC freshened it up a little, in that it was mostly them to which the cliché applied. It was as if Nick Cushing asked his players at halftime whether they were tired and, upon agreeing they all were, they torched a game-plan that had run over the Portland Timbers over the opening 30 minutes. Portland took the space NYC left open for them to (very) slowly get back in the game (I have the Timbers first shot on goal at the 73rd through Nathan Fogaca) and yet, with time on the edge of running out, a heretofore indifferent Evander floated a late, glorious winner over NYC ‘keeper Matt Freese. With that, Portland picked up a 2-1 road win that no one could have seen coming even by the halftime whistle.

Which was weird, right? I try to avoid counterfactuals – because, lo, the game played out the way it did in all known dimensions – but some part of me has to wonder about all the different ways that game could have ended. Especially given that it started with New York City so deep down Portland’s throat that I’m surprised that didn’t run clear out their ass all the way to New Jersey.

Words to describe how scattered and dizzy Portland started don’t come easy. The only part of any Timber to touch the ball over the opening 10 minutes was Dairon Asprilla’s forehead and even that happened only once or twice (related, please relegate that tactical choice to the rubbish heap, on the grounds it does not work). When NYCFC scored their inevitable break-through goal off a thrice-recycled corner at the 10th minute (think of all the planet we could save with such a program), things looked bad. That outlook downgraded to dire over the ensuing 25 minutes and, here, even the most stubborn Timbers fan should acknowledge that New York should have gone two goals up at a minimum and going up three was deeply in the conversation. The exhibits on offer:

Exhibit A: the (sixth or seventh) run around Portland’s right that had Mounsef Bakrar running free at an actually prone Maxime Crepeau in Portland’s goal; and

Exhibit B: the slip/sideways pass by Crepeau directly to an NYCFC player who had nothing a recovering Zac McGraw between him and an open goal.

New York had more chances besides (the highlights have most of 'em, just not Exhibit B) – in all honesty, they could have been up 4-0 with true finishing – and then, to paraphrase Star Wars, the guns, they stopped.

New York City FC: Remember When New York Was Cool?

NOTE: Freaky AI art, not a stake-out

“On paper, New York City FC's attack should be way better than this. Mounsef Bakrar and Jovan Mijatović at striker. Julián Fernández and Agustín Ojeda as wingers (Talles Magno is out hurt). Santiago Rodríguez and Hannes Wolf as chance creators. Long-term, I'll hedge on that group clicking.”

- Jonathan Sigal, 29 Takeaways: One Thought on Every Team After Match Day 3

After sitting through New York City FC’s 0-2 Week 2 road loss at St. Louis CITY FC, I can confirm. As a side note, I don’t know how he gets to Match Day 3 when every team in Major League Soccer save two (Inter Miami CF and Real Salt Lake) have played just two games. But I digress…

With the MLS season in its late-preschool years (did the math; turns out if you take the average U.S. life expectancy of 77.28 years and divide it by 34 games, each game equates to roughly 2.3 human years), NYCFC doesn’t have much for a track record for 2024. I can, however, provide the following facts: they currently sit at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with an 0-2-0 record and a -3 goal differential, with zero goals scored. Both losses came on the road – the first against Charlotte FC, the second at St. Louis – and NYC is hardly piling up chances, posting 19 shots between the two games, with just four on goal, and a flaccid xG of 0.6 in Game 1 and 0.7 in Game 2. Now, one could put that down to a slow start, opening with two games on the road, the yips, a gypsy curse, a bad, as-yet-undisclosed Tarot reading – wrap your imagination in a freak flag and let ‘em fly – but, those issues with scoring carried over from a 2023 season that saw NYC get one thin whisker over 1.0 goals per game for the season (the actual number: 1.03 goals/game). In other words, this is a thing.

That thing really stunk up that loss at St. Louis, too. I spent the game waiting for NYC to do anything worth reporting, but like 83% of police stakeouts (this stat is not real), I wound up watching 90+ minutes of a whole lot of nothing from them – at least on the attacking side. St. Louis, on the other hand, found multiple looks on goal – and don’t let that 3 shots on goal fool you, because, on top of scoring the two goals, both Cello Pompeu (who’s looks worth the look) and Samuel Adeniran (ditto) knocked shots from about 20 yards out off the same post…which makes one wonder who’ll step up for the Portland Timbers.

I’ll get to that, but, with an eye to keeping a leash on the chatter, I’m condensing my scouting notes on NYCFC to five, quick-hit talking points. If I was better, younger and more confident, I’d post video, but I don’t have the foggiest as to how to do that. So enjoy….words!

Portland Timbers 4-1 Colorado Rapids: Yes, with a Great Big (Twerking) But(t)

A conversation taking place.

I’ve got an angel on one shoulder fretting about getting carried away and a devil merrily twerking on the other whispering about giving all the way in and to every temptation. The angel’s going to win this round, and for a number of reasons, but mostly because I know too much about getting ahead of myself. That doesn’t mean the Portland Timbers 4-1 stroll over the Colorado Rapids didn’t feel great and soothing (like a good heating pad…I’m using one now). It just means taking a couple considerations seriously – and starting with a big one.

The Rapids fell apart before they got started in that first half. There, I’m talking less about Portland’s first goal (which I’ll come back to) than the second. All the credit in the world to Cristhian Paredes for finding Antony isolated a step behind of the penalty spot against Colorado’s Keegan Rosenberry, but you’re not going to see a captain go down with the ship the way Rosenberry did last night outside of your more chilling maritime disasters. Even allowing for the possibility that Antony’s stronger than he looks (and after last night, that’s a yes), I don’t know how a defender with Rosenberry’s experience lets the young winger get in front of him on that play.

To circle back to the maritime metaphor, who was around him when Antony scored his second goal of the night (Portland's third)? Rosenberry. And when Antony cut across the ball that bounced of the Rapids’ Sam Vines and into the net for a collective, soul-crushing own-goal (and Portland's fourth)? Yep, Rosenberry again.

That gets to the first big caveat the damn angel has sold me on: unless he ate 1,000 bowls of Wheaties and chased it with a course of high-grade steroids over the off-season, I doubt you’re going to see Antony run over, around a through a player like he did Rosenberry. Don’t get me wrong: I really loved what I saw from Antony yesterday – his defensive work as much as the three goal contributions (and can we call that a hat trick, so long as we take the asterisk with it) - but the caveat in re Keegan Rosenberry, aka, the captain to Colorado’s Titanic, feels like a sub-caveat to a larger one. To wit: for all the changes they made to their 2023 roster, the Colorado Rapids still have some road to walk before they arrive at capable and, if Chris Armas hasn’t improved drastically as a head coach since the last time I watched him a work, Colorado’s walk will be uphill both ways and through three feet of snow.

Portland Timbers 2024 Preview: Hopes, Fears & Theories

In a better world...

“It’s Feb. 15 and [the Timbers] still have two open DP spots. It’s almost not even worth talking about them until they fill those spots.”

- Sam Jones, MLS Daily Kickoff

I hold this truth to be self-evident, and to the extent that this post won’t be so much a preview as a series of thoughts, opinions and speculation. Moreover, it starts in a place where I wish I didn’t.

When I saw the Portland Timbers line-up for their final preseason warm-up against Chicago Fire FC, I did not feel the glitz and glamour I’ve come to expect from events in the Coachella Valley. Instead, I saw too much of the same line-up I’ve seen over two back-to-back unsuccessful seasons. Here’s the (probable) line-up for that game (I couldn’t tell because that skeazy miser, Merritt Paulson, lacks the good goddamn sense to treat preseason like the course of appetizers they are):

4-2-3-1: James Pantemis (GK); Juan David Mosquera (RB), Zac McGraw and Kamal Miller (CBs), Eric Miller (LB); at the 2, Diego Chara paired with Eryk Williamson; at the 3, Santiago Moreno, Evander and Dairon Asprilla, and all that with a cherry on top named Felipe Mora.

Between turnover in the roster and players coming back from injury, that isn’t a name-for-name match to the line-up the Timbers trotted out, say, at the beginning of 2023. And yet, when you look at the line-up the Timbers used in MLS Week 1 2023, it amounts to splitting the difference between identical and fraternal twins. In the sense that I rate Mora higher than the departed Jaroslaw Niezgoda and Moreno over the bizarrely hesitant (and also departed) Yimmi Chara, sure, that counts as improvement. But how much?

The fact that Timbers line-up lost their final preseason game to a serially terrible Chicago team injects some vibez gloom into the launch of the 2024 regular season. I don’t know of any franchise in all of sports has put in the work to alienate its fanbase the way Chicago has. Missing the playoffs in 10 of the last 11 seasons is the tip of an iceberg that could sink 100 Titanics. I don’t put any more stock into preseason than the next fan, and I understand that one of Chicago’s goals was a freak-show error that couldn’t be replicated without a live chicken and copious amounts of despair, but, as they say, still…