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| Hello, 2012. |
What follows is a brief history of the Portland Timbers, plus more brief notes on whatever long-term tendencies they have. Their 2025 season gets weighed in between those two sections and the whole thing ends with where I see things with them in this very specific moment in time - i.e., less than one week before First Kick 2026. I saw an Adam Sussman skeet telling me that Merritt Paulson told him to expect a couple more signings before then, so it's likely that not everything below is final…and yet, I’m not going to hold my breath for greatness or anything.
The post ends with a scale I came up with to measure the long-term success of every team in Major League Soccer. It does some things well (e.g., count trophies/achievements), other things less well (capture recent trends). It's called the Joint Points Scale and you can find a link that explains what it does. I was really stoned when I came up with the scale and wrote the post. Caveat lector. With that...
…for obvious reasons, this one’s going to go on a bit longer than the others in the series…
Thumbnail History
In my head, I knew the Portland Timbers had some lean seasons before they won MLS Cup 2015. That datapoint receded to where it felt like some other team’s history until I picked through Wikipedia posts about those early seasons, as if thumbing through a yearbook. I also remember the 2015 season through a very specific lens, but I’ll get to that. Starting at the beginning…
Now that I’ve posted mini-histories for (nearly) every other team in Major League Soccer (may not be better than a Wikipedia post, but definitely shorter), I was struck by how steadily the Timbers pieced together a competitive team and how early it came in their MLS history. When Portland graduated from the USL to MLS in 2011, they came in with a roster typical of that time (MLS…2.5?): it started with a few players who came up from the last USL team – e.g., Futty Danso, Steve Purdy, Bright Dike, and Kalif Alhassan – which was then beefed up with players typical of every Expansion Draft, i.e., fixer-uppers with a good season or two behind them – e.g., Eric Brunner, Eric Alexander, Kenny Cooper – and capped with the player who was born a cagey vet and who would captain Portland through (most of?) their first several seasons, “Captain” Jack Jewsbury. The key additions from outside the domestic professional ranks included a hot college draft pick named Darlington Nagbe and a Colombian midfielder who was sold to expectant fans as an “attacking midfielder” (but aren’t they all?), Diego Chara. The front office hired a cliché (aka, a “fiery Scotsman,” aka, John Spencer) to coach the Year One team, and they were off! The Timbers missed the playoffs by a sliver in that expansion season, only to fall headlong into a sophomore slump in Year 2. The front office flagged the right weakness – the attack – and hit the market to fix it, landing a couple Colombians (Sebastian Rincon and Jose Adolfo Valencia, who I barely remember), another reclamation project (Danny Mwanga), and a DP forward named Kris Boyd, who once (maybe?) lit up the Scottish top flight (yep...also, what does that say?). The tinkering didn’t lead to anything good and Boyd, in particular, didn't match the hype. 2012 might have been the Timbers’ worst all-time season - haven’t run the numbers, don’t see the point – but the building blocks started falling in place fairly quickly thereafter. First the front office plucked Caleb Porter from the college ranks (University of Akron) before the end of 2012. The players came next, starting with the Flying Johnsons, Will and Ryan (no one called them “the Flying Johnsons,” but they should have), Pa Modou Kah came over from the Dutch top-flight, by way of Saudi Arabia – Portland even got a little jiggy when they signed former Manchester United stand-out Mikael Silvestre (who broke quickly) – and, of course, the crown jewel of the 2013 renovation, Diego Valeri. He joined on loan but made it official (I think) before the year was over and would become a fixture/face-of-the-franchise for the next nine seasons (right? because you count both 2013 and 2021?). The result was an about-face from 2012, and an appetizer for the peak seasons to come: 2013 was arguably the Timbers’ best-ever season on paper: the team was balanced, going well over the average for goals scored, while keeping just as many on the other side. Their post-season ended at what probably was the last, best season for Real Salt Lake’s golden-generation, but it also ended in the MLS Cup playoffs semifinals – a good year for any team. They reverted to type in 2014 season, missing the playoffs, etc., which tees up my dysfunctional memory of 2015.
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| Memories, some good, some bad, one JFC. |
It makes more sense when viewed through the rearview, especially if you 1) look at the roster that started the final and 2) absorb how connected and, most importantly, healthy the Timbers defense stayed that season. Every key defensive player – Adam Kwarasey, Jorge Villafana, Alvas Powell and, at the center of it all, Nat Borchers, Liam Ridgewell, and Chara – logged at least 2,479 minutes over the regular season (that was Chara), and most were over 2,700. Nagbe was another fixture, so they had consistency with ball progression as well…which gets the biggest surprise of them all: apart from the goal he poked in off Steve Clark’s toe in the first minute MLS Cup, Valeri barely figured in the 2015 season and, unless Wikipedia’s lying to me (impossible!), he hadn’t scored a single goal for the Timbers since a mid-season draw versus Vancouver. As it happened, the key complement to Portland’s best-ever defense was forward Fanendo Adi, who had a career season for the Timbers om 2015. Since I just spotted it, here’s another fun fact: Lucas Melano started MLS Cup 2015, but that doesn’t blow me away nearly as much as my computer telling me that he scored the late, late goal at FC Dallas that sent the Timbers to MLS Cup 2015. Take a bow, Mr. Melano!
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| Legend, cautionary tale, legend. |
The years since 2021 have been, for lack of a better word, bleak. I’ll get into details below, but I think most fans would agree that there’s too much limping along, too much of letting favorite players linger past their sell-by/retire date – Valeri and Mabiala feel like the standouts there, but Chara’s increasingly in that mix (yeah, yeah; see below) – and the general vibe feels like a “transition season” that, in keeping with the theme, overstayed its welcome. And yet the team marches into the future, one mid season at a time. If there’s one thing I’ve enjoyed in all this – and this is arguably the greatest pleasure of sports fandom – are never-ending, ever-evolving debates about every player who puts on a Timbers jersey: Kwarasey’s distribution; the workings and value of the double-pivot; whether David Guzman’s range of passing make up for his failings in defense; Chara can’t possibly have another season in the tank, right?; what the hell happened to Tuiloma after he moved to Charlotte, and, most recently, does the front office chase off talent, e.g., Evander, Santiago Moreno, etc. Give any Timbers fan a name and they can probably recall a debate about him. That’s what keeps me engaged, anyway. With that, let’s catch things up to…
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| MLS Western Conference 2025, as metaphor. |
Think of it as a season that never really got rolling. Portland struggled to string together results all year, winning back-to-back games just twice – and only once in regular season play (see, consecutive home wins over Colorado and St. Louis in June. (The other consecutive wins came over late July and early August, starting with the genuinely encouraging win at LAFC, followed by back-to-back Leagues Cup wins over Atletico San Luis and Queretaro.) In fact, the Timbers won just 11 games in 2025, tied for the lowest total with FC Dallas (and what do you think of them?) and nine (9) of those came against teams that finished below the playoff line. To bring an argument full circle, Portland fans kept waiting for things to come together, particularly down the stretch, but the pieces remained resolutely apart to the end. Consistent with the note above, Portland did try to bring in solutions at mid-season – e.g., Felipe Carballo, Matias Rojas, and most significantly, Norwegian…winger(?) Kristoffer Velde – but Carballo broke within days of signing (or thereabouts), goal scoring continued to whelm and the team posted a pitiable 1-5-4 over the last 10 games of the regular season. It took the failing village that was MLS’s Western Conference to keep the Timbers above the playoff line, i.e., as much luck as skill, if not more. To their credit, Portland responded pretty damn well. They confidently kicked RSL out of the wild card game before taking a surprisingly strong San Diego team to a third game in their first round series. Game 3 ended in flaming disaster, sure, but getting within a game of the quarterfinals after the season they had speaks well of a team’s character and commitment. As for what went wrong, I’ll get into that when I look forward and hope that past stays buried.
Long-Term Tendencies v Recent Trends
Broadly, the Timbers are more likely to exceed the average for both goals scored and goals allowed, i.e., the attacks have been good and, historically, the defenses bad. To pick at the (somewhat imprecise) numbers, Portland has competed in 15 MLS regular seasons, over which time: they have scored at or around the league average three times, gone a little over it once, but scored well over the league average (~9-10 goals, depending on the season) six times; the Timbers defense, meanwhile, went over the average for goals allowed six times, well over the average three times. That above pattern – i.e., a season with both a good offense and a weak defense – rarely overlaps, but, fun fact, in two of the seasons when that did happen, the Timbers won Weird Trophy (2020) and lost MLS Cup in a crapshoot (2021, the most painful for me). To report something that will strike most Portland fans as obvious as the sun rising in the East, nothing hurts this team like weak to bad defenses. That holds across every season Portland missed the playoffs, even in couple seasons where they scored over the average for goals (2014 and 2022). Small wonder, then, that the Timbers won MLS Cup the same season they fielded their best-ever defense. And, almost poetically, a porous Portland defense undid one of its all-time best seasons of attacking soccer.
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| This, but way less cool. |
After a 2024 season that saw the Timbers tie for fourth-most regular season goals, the team’s attacking output fell off a cliff in 2025 and waited on a ledge for a rescue that never arrived: the offense scored twenty-fucking-four (2f-ing4) fewer goals. Very much related, I don’t believe a single Timbers attacker had what any honest fan would call a good season: Antony led the team with a slim seven goals and as many assists and, if memory serves, he scored most of his goals early before (sensing a theme) his production fell off a cliff; David Da Costa, the main tagged as Evander’s replacement (unfairly in my mind) had a similar trajectory, with most of his four goals and eight assists coming early. Maybe the timing of his shoulder issue synched just so with Antony’s (I think) hamstring, but missing games by injury is one of those blunt realities one can only wave away so many times. It’s nickels and dimes everywhere one looks from there – e.g., Kevin Kelsy’s seven goals, two assists; Felipe Mora’s five goals and four assists – and the fact that the now-bitterly-departed Santiago Moreno ranks fifth overall in attacking contributions should make Timbers fans apprehensive about the future, maybe even a little sad.
The defense was fine, getting just on the right side of average for goals allowed. How much of that one wants to attribute that to a breakout season from Finn Surman probably reveals one’s read on the glass half-empty/half-full equation. For what it’s worth, I lean toward half-full and generally embrace the idea that the Timbers have a competent back line. Moving on the question of what the front office did about all of the above…
The choice to let David Ayala go to Miami clearly headlines the list of departures. Ayala won me the rest of the way over in 2025, even if I don’t know that he ever attained consensus “best Timber” status. He never posted great attacking numbers, but the kid battled and his range of passing made the field bigger in transition. For all that upside, I sincerely believe the Timbers had issues with midfield structure and personnel and I’m inclined to see Ayala as part of those issues. None of the other departures strike me as significant (click here, scroll below for reference) – it was mostly shedding the dubious mid-season acquisitions, acknowledging that Maxime Crepeau lost the starting ‘keeper gig, and saluting Zuparic on his way out the door – but seeing them let Cristhian Paredes walk threw me a little. Paredes never won me all the way over – i.e., I could never identify an upside that made him valuable, never mind indispensable – but he capably played the role of midfield terrier and, so long as one sees issues in defensive midfield….
The front office has so far filled those holes and addressed whatever needs the roster has by signing: steady MLS vet Brandon Bye at right back, a young Australian center back named Alex Bonetig, and, the current big (or “big”) move, midfield movable part from the Colorado Rapids, Cole Bassett. Between Bye’s body of work, what I know of Bassett’s career and the wailing and lamentations emanating from Colorado, both of the intra-league signings look smart enough. I don’t have much to work with on Bonetig, but he looked good enough in his preseason minutes for me to keep an open mind and a wee flame of hope flickering in my heart. I do, however, have questions about the actual need that Bassett and Bye address – i.e., do they add anything besides competition at right back, a combination of elegance and added confusion in midfield, and what does any of this do to help the Timbers score goals?
And that’s (mostly) how I’m going to wrap up this post, with a set of questions and arguments about the season ahead. Tacking them back-to-front:
Goalkeeper/Defense: Unless Bonetig proves to be a magical upgrade – something I’m open to – the Timbers defense won’t be the best, but it won’t be the worst either, aka, this is fine. Would take another CB signing if that’s one of Paulson’s two rumored signings, but I don’t see this as a big area of need.
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| Yes, but we all know it can't stay there forever. |
Bassett/Da Costa/”Creativity”: I see people continue to hold out hope on Da Costa and…I still simply don’t see it. Nothing in his style of play points screams “playmaker” to me, but I hereby commit to watching with an open mind. As for Bassett, I’ve seen him play at man-of-the match levels for the Rapids – more than once too – and hope that he can form a two-headed beast with Da Costa out of midfield while also providing enough support to Ortiz(/or, just as likely, Chara) so he (or he) is not managing incoming traffic solo. How well this whole area works will go a long way, if not the greatest distance, to determining the Timbers fate in 2026.
Wingerz: Both Antony and Velde had promising moments in preseason (Velde bagged a brace versus San Jose in one game and Antony terrorized Chicago beyond what the final stats recognize), and yet I’m compelled to put their late history and the randomness of preseason results on the other side of the scale. Antony hasn’t looked like himself for months – i.e., like he’s in multiple areas of his head – and, honestly, I’m worried that Velde has looked more or less like his true self since he arrived. Velde leaves everything on the field, but he also commits to carrying the offense to an extent not supported by his talent – i.e., I find his decision-making suspect and worry that he sees a better player when he looks in the mirror than I see on the field. Both Ariel Lassiter and Omir Fernandez are known quantities who give what they give, i.e., hard work and good, if limited upside. In sum, not promising.
Forwards: I’m eager to gamble on Gage Guerra in a way that speaks to the confidence I feel about what Kevin Kelsy ultimately has to offer and what Felipe Mora has left in the tank. More to the point, all of these players need some level of service and I don’t see where that comes from at this point. As with all of the above, I hope to be proven very, very wrong on this.
Phil: I closed my 2024 Portland Timbers season review by saying that I’d be watching what Phil Neville does “like a fucking hawk.” That hasn’t changed. If anything, it has intensified. For all the doubts expressed about any given player in the above, my primary contention about where the Timbers are right now hangs on the belief that a better coach could get more out of the existing roster. Not enough to win anything, never mind everything, but someone who can bring the structure and processes to get them closer. The attacking patterns are either non-existent (“express yourselves”) or crap (“play it wide right, cross to well-covered runs), and the team mostly operates in a single gear (e.g., transition for all occasions) that makes them predictable, therefore easier to manage.
That’s everything, Again, I have a programming note after the Joy Points b.s.
Historical Success (/Hysterical Failure)
Total Joy Points: 10
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| Put down that weight, my son. |
MLS Cup: 2015
MLS Cup Runner-Up: 2018, 2021
MLS Playoffs Semifinals: 2013
MLS Playoffs/Quarterfinals: 2017
MLS Is Back Winner: 2020 (“Weird Trophy”)
CCL Quarterfinals: 2021
Programming Note
When I pulled the plug on this blog last season, never wanting to post another match report ever, ever again provided about 75% of the motivation. The other 25% followed from a realization that I no longer have the capacity/desire to track two teams: wanting to watch literally any other game every time I watched FC Cincinnati was the come-to-Jesus moment on that. That’s less a knock on them, than accepting that I always felt like I was missing something more important than a steadily consistent team, falling apart, little by little, until the inevitable swept them away...shit, probably was more interesting than I thought. Moving on...
With that in mind, here’s the plan for 2026 (oh, how I love my doomed little plans) and this blog: a weekly post that includes a very short note on the last Timbers game, shorter notes on two to three other games, plus five points of interest from each conference and/or theories on the state of play in the playoff race. The Timbers content will mostly take the form of questions – e.g., “how does Phil get the most out of Velde?” – the notes on the featured games will be blurbs, and the notes on each conference will be bullet points. And all of these will amount to arguments for what I’m seeing as I track Major League Soccer through the upcoming season…
…and, yeah, I’m going to ignore the World Cup, or try to at least. I’ve loved that tournament since the 1980s and, wow, am I bitter at the Monument to Corruption it has become.
The first edition goes up next week. I won’t be in a position to live-skeet the opener, but will do that any week I’m available to do so. Till then…
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