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| 4-2-0 road record, AAUGGHGHH!! |
The Facts
Record & Related Stats
7-4-4, 25 pts., 15 GP; 30 gf, 22 ga (+8); home 3-2-4, away 4-2-0
Last 10 Results: WDDLLWWLWW (5-3-2)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ DC (4-0 W); v STL (1-1 D); v LAG (2-2 D); v MIN (0-1 L); @ SEA (1-2 L); @ RBNY (2-0 W); v RSL (3-1 W); v VAN (2-3 L); @ SJ (3-2 W); @ COL (2-1 W)
A couple things jump out there (and apologies for any typos; I do those). I’d start with that 4-2-0 road record – especially with three of the four coming hot into the World Cup break – but I’m mostly struck by seeing a Dallas team improving as the regular season turns into summer. My memory could be faulty on here, but the Dallas teams I recall from the past 10 or so seasons past start hot enough to get people thinking they could have a strong one, only to have them slouch slowly to the playoff line and yo-yo on either side of it before making a wholly forgettable playoff run.
At the risk of repeating a prediction that seems to blow up in my face every other season…Dallas looks good this year.
The Lineup(s)
The (Moribund) Mothership tells me Eric Quill (good vibes) generally sends out his starting XI in a 3-4-3 (mostly like this one), but the broadcast had them in a 4-4-2 for the loss versus Vancouver that looked plausible based on the lineup (available here; first couple seconds are all you need, but Sebastian Berhalter scored a couple bangers in that one).
The Back 3 & ‘ Keeper
Osaze Urhoghide almost always starts at the middle of it, and (former USMNT-er) Shak Moore on the right, but the left back position saw a fair amount of rotation over the last five games between Nolan Norris, Moore (again) and Sebastian Ibeagha (yeah, that guy). Dallas’s goals allowed numbers aren’t stellar – 22 so far – and they don’t post many clean sheets (two in their last 10 games), but I count 11 goals allowed over their past 10, aka, pretty tight. Dallas had Michael Collodi starting in goal over the first 2-3 games of their past five (can’t remember), but Jonathan Sirois (young, formerly from Montreal, mostly; saved a PK a game or two back!) started the last few and looks a major clog between the pipes.
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| Don't you say one damn word! He's gonna live! |
Kaick Ferreira and Ramiro Benetti started at the heart of Dallas’ midfield four in every game into which I put 10:30 to 60 minutes and they hold it down all right. Ran Binyamin started on the left in three of the past five, but he’s new to the gig (from Israel, new this season), so you’d think he’s preferred, but Joaquin Valiente and Norris have both stepped in. Herman Johansson, listed as a defender, Swedish (also, 28 years old, also new), has started on the right side of Dallas’ four three times in the past five on top of starting most (11) games. This whole set up is okay, and they contribute to the attack (each of Benett, Binyamin and Johansson have two assists), but one gets the feeling this is not their primary purpose. Keeping the foundation whole feels like the Prime Directive.
The Front 3
Former Timber (and a pretty unpopular one) Santiago Moreno has started on the left in most games I reviewed and I think he’s still finding his feet. Petar Musa – a damn nightmare (example) when yer agin’ him, but a real talent – always starts centrally, but Valiente started on the right more often than anyone, even as you think they’d probably start (OSU alum!) Logan Farrington. Moreno’s pretty much as Timbers fans remember him – more prone to create his own shot than to combine – but Valiente has a respectable number of assists (4), Farrington has pretty strong second-banana numbers (6 goals, 4 assists), and Musa’s a genuine, fer real threat. Again, I don't know this team well, but Farrington plays like a budding version of Musa.
Statistics, Broadly
Dallas ran up the number versus San Jose, but Dallas’ numbers point to what they looked like across the highlights and the long watch (60 minutes) I gave to their 2-1 win at Colorado: They (appear to) like to play against the ball – then again, that could be a function of me watching highlights where they played three out of five on the road – and they have reliably kept their xG at 1.5+ across all those games. They don’t cross the ball a lot based on what I’ve seen (see below) and they’re generally good for 5-6 shots on goal, good ones too.
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| He's saying "hi!" HI, friend!! |
Dallas plays a fairly physical style; they press a bit, but not definitionally, and they will bump a fella off the ball if they get close enough. They get vertical ASAP after forcing a turnover, though one could rephrase that acronym as “as soon as practicable,” because they have the patience to find a clean look to key a good transition. I like this goal by Kaick versus Real Salt Lake and this goal at Red Bull New York as Dallas at their most lethal – oh, and that second goal was scored by MLS’s unheralded answer to pre-World Cup hype, Samuel Sarver, the young (balding) ace (no shade; I joined the club early, kid), who graced the league with this moment. Like Timbers teams of old, letting Dallas run at you raises the risk to “at your peril, no lifeguards on duty” levels. I’m pretty sure I say this about most teams, but Dallas also has a gear where they can get on the ball and actually pace the game – i.e., they cede possession by choice, but they can also pull a team apart the way they did for their first goal at Red Bull.
Broadly, I rate Dallas and feel bound by their past five results to treat the eight-goal gap between them and Portland as real. Watching Seattle self-immolate reset my sense of how much to trust pre-World Cup break form, but I still find their relative trajectories (e.g., Dallas up, Seattle down) going into said break worth flagging. With that, the question is how Portland manages a team that pokes at your possession as you work the ball up the field and how to contain one that can, bluntly, fuck you up on the break.
Some Thoughts
1) Fuck It. Go Toe-to-Toe
At the risk of over-indexing Portland’s past, frankly isolated result, I’d like to see Portland absorb and transition every bit as aggressively as I’ve seen Dallas do it over round about 100 minutes’ worth of footage. Regardless of what I want out of them (their best possible selves! love you guys!), The Timbers have never looked as comfortable in the attack as they look when running at lines of defense in succession (i.e., getting vertical). Having this boil down to a game of defense v defense could be educational.
2) Play It Again, Jack
I’d take the lineup Portland played last Thursday with (some) changes, or no changes, honestly. I wouldn’t touch the front three unless it means giving Alexander Aravena a start, and I’d start Jose Caicedo or Joao Ortiz in the middle just to see what happens…but maybe in another game. Nah, I want to see Jack Cassidy (right?) run the same lineup as last week’s. If Portland gets a two-goal lead, experiment like you can’t miss the playoffs…despite being in 11th.
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| Nothing to lose, Sharon Stone's affection to gain. |
By this I mean, don’t let Dallas beat a Timber a single ball, regardless of how it happens (and, fwiw, I like last week’s lineup to chase and leave Diego Chara to hold shit down). Moreover, this is a home game, Portland’s chasing a pack with the top 4 teams (in order, Vancouver, San Jose, LAFC, and RSL) trotting away. Let Dallas win, they catch up to that pack. Worse, that’s on top of leaving Portland eleven points behind them and, depending on results…never mind. Shit gets really complicated.
3a) No, Really
RSL plays at LAFC, which should boost LAFC, thereby making them irrelevant to Portland (too far ahead...for now), while keeping RSL as far as nine points over the Timbers if they lose, but a shrinking six points between a losing them and a winning Portland. Houston hosts DC, which game I think Houston should win, so that’s them probably on 25 points (5-8 points above Portland, depending, with one result definitely preferable to the other), while Seattle visits Austin FC, a game I would have called Seattle walking away with three points in their pockets in May, but in July? Oh, and San Jose plays Orlando – who have been historically atrocious in 2026 – so, yeah, I don't see relief there, but why not keep an open mind (maybe they did fake the moon landing?!). Maybe Portland gains ground on Minnesota (probably not; they’re playing SKC), but what happens with the two teams above them – LA Galaxy v St. Louis CITY FC – feels like a crapshoot that I like the visitors to win…for now. The broadcast booth that presided over the Galaxy’s shattering loss to LAFC (Mark Delgado O’Clock! Give it UP for MLS Average!!) hinted at an upcoming, and rather massive remake for the Galaxy. Go with God…
Okay. In future editions, I plan on doing some quick hits on what’s going on around the league – e.g., the numbing irrelevance of the 0-0 draw between Montreal and Toronto, or St. Louis keeping their heads above water against a Sporting Kansas City team that has looked doomed from First Kick. But that’s all for this one. Which, per tradition, was not short. Till the next one…
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