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| Step One: less of this. |
It’ll start with a brief Scouting Report on the Portland Timbers’ next, dreaded opponent, the Seattle Sounders (aka, the Spoiled Rich Kids of the Middle North, aka, Cascadia’s Somehow Successful Fail-Sons). The section that follows expands on the template for the Eastern Conference Re-Entry by flagging all the teams within reach of the Timbers in the standings, whether above or below,
Before looking forward, I wanted to link to the long look back I posted right before MLS turned off the lights for the World Cup break. It was fairly straightforward, content-wise - just listing all the players and what I think of their contributions, talents and individual potential; you won’t see many rays of sunshine in there, because the sun struggles to get all the way down to 13th place. With that in mind (including the post), I wanted to start with a glance ahead to the next four games – e.g., at Seattle, v Dallas, v RSL, v Seattle - regardless of who’s lining up and giving direction to the starting eleven. (At time of posting, that is still interim head coach, Jack Cassidy), but Jeremy Peterman posted a quicky to Bluesky saying that the Timbers may report a new head coach this week.) The two things I liked to see:
1) Coherence in the Attack
Too often under Phil’s “guidance,” the Timbers functioned as a competitively dysfunctional improv troupe – i.e., too little “yes-anding” and too much “fuck it, guess I’ll just kick the ball.” Seeing the attacking pieces coordinate as they move on Thursday would be enough to make me coin the word "delief" (a delight meets a relief).
2) Competition
As noted in the post linked to above, I’d like to see players like Ari Lassiter, Joao Ortiz, Gage Guerra, Alexander Aravena, even Eric Miller get some starts – even if it’s just to give the regulars a jolt of job insecurity. Sure, Eric doesn’t have “game-changer” on his resume, but maybe he partners better, but Lassiter has looked decent and, crucially, willing every time he’s come on. See what they do with the pressure, see how the starters handle cooling their heels.
Right, moving on to the details…
Seattle Sounders FC, L’il Scouter
[NOTE: With a nod to all the details I get wrong in my Scouting Reports, I ask that the readers accept them as framing for the game - i.e., big picture stuff built around trends, that kind of thing, as opposed to a detailed breakdown from inside Brian Schmetzer’s head and multiple therapy sessions with Seattle’s physio. No, you're protesting too much!]
The Facts, Ma’am
7-3-3, 24 pts., 13 GP; 17 gf, 11 ga (+6); home 4-1-1, away 3-2-2
Last 10 Results: WDWWWDDWLL (6-3-1)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ SJ (1-0 W); @ MIN (0-0 D); @ HOU (1-0 W); v STL (4-1 W); v FCD (2-1 W); @ SKC (1-1 D); v SD (1-1 D); v SJ (3-2 W); v LAG (0-2 L); @ LAFC (0-1 L)
(Since I’m doing it below): Schedule to Leagues Cup: v POR, @ ATX, @ PHI, v POR
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| Sometimes it just looks impressive. Or dumb. |
Seattle (generally) tailed off over the last five games going into the World Cup break, which seems noteworthy. I added the parenthetical because the Sounders beat San Jose in Seattle – a good result (that they genuinely had to dig out (e.g., late winner, talk of "San Jose has been ascendant," that kind of thing) – but that feels like a battling positive with flat results on either side that seems no less relevant and clearly less impressive. Then again – and I’ll touch on this again later – Seattle put up a helluva fight over two rounds in the CCC (against Vancouver and Mexico’s Tigres), aka, more miles on those legs. That’s the biggest picture. To tighten the frame a little…
Lineup
Schmetzer has fielded a 4-2-3-1 in all five of Seattle’s past four. While I can’t guarantee the observation, it looks like he rotated heavily for the 0-2 loss at the Galaxy. Between (mostly) familiar faces and players coming available, I’d call what Schmetz fielded in the following (close) 0-1 loss at LAFC closer to preferred.
Numbers
Based on their top-line numbers (see above), I pegged Seattle as a stifling low-chance creation team, but they dogpiled the chances at Kansas City, and versus San Jose and San Diego: 20+ shots every time with about half a dozen on frame, xG consistently around or above 3.0. Also noteworthy: the Sounders have held their opponents' xG to about half that over that five game period. The results? Also not good – i.e., five points from 15, all against Western Conference rivals. Not scoring much has a lot to do with it.
Putting All the Above in Word-Vomit
Absences have been an issue – and if rumors are true about one Roldan (Cristian) needing a break and the other (Alex) needing a new hip, that may continue – and results have clearly soured, but the time off probably(?) helped globally. Seattle’s prime attacking threats – Albert Rusnak, Jordan Morris, Paul Rothrock and Jesus Ferreira – have been…I’d call it mostly available for league play. That shows in the numbers – they share 10 goals and 12 assists between them – and that probably explains the Sounders' low scoring, if to some extent. Most of what I know about those players tells me that one or more of them will drive up those numbers by season’s end. I’d call how well the defense has held up with Yeimar on a thin 172 minutes the more impressive feat.
After taking in the highlights for all five of Seattle’s most recent games, my broad conclusions boil down to: this is a good, sturdy team with a strong record of minimizing fuckups…even though real fuck ups led to goals in recent weeks. Both LA teams left them looking a step above pedestrian on the attacking side, but they showed they can filet a defense against SKC, San Diego and San Jose; still, they created good chances in every highlight I watched and they created chances in those last three. The angles got a little tough, but attacking moves got past the last defender (open looks) and enough hit posts and crossbars that at least two of those past shaky results could have ended with three points for Seattle. They built those looks out of quick, intricate passing play, even against the LA teams, so, yeah, consider yourselves warned.
Key Points
1) Do Not Let Them Play
Portland needs to put real thought in where they defend because the Sounders have some gears in the close confines in and around the 18. The best defensive approach will manage the space and track the options provided by runs, but letting them get on the run near James Pantemis' goal poses more risk than I want to watch. On the plus side, this should give the Timbers chances to play in transition, aka, their comfort zone.
2) The Threat(s) Below
Both Ferreira and Rusnak operate in the space opened up by Morris, Danny Musovski (when he’s on) and, sometimes, Paul Rothrock pushing against the opposition defense. Most of that’s pulling strings, but it’s also shots from range and (less often) late runs into the box. They both operate in the dynamic flagged in No. 1, so this bit is more about Seattle on the counter. That said…
2a) Ferreira = Danger
He scored a smart goal versus an unbalanced San Jose defense, but he’s hell to track defensively and all kinds of versatile. I haven’t seen him look this comfortable yet in a Seattle jersey. Just something to worry about…
3) Kalani Kossa-Rienzi
Kossa-Rienzi is by no means terrible, but he is young(ish; 24), he was visibly caught out more than once in the video I reviewed (can't find it; so tired...) and Seattle pushes him high often enough to leave space behind on what will be Portland’s left. Just put some thought into the starter, that’s all.
4) A Small Cliff
I’d advise Timbers fans of getting too amped up about any absent players in Seattle’s lineup. Schmetzer has the personnel to make a plug-‘n’-play system work pretty well – e.g., Hassani Dotson holds up just fine, and so has Snyder Brunnell, so far as I’ve seen him. Yeimar probably remains the trickiest hole to fill – or maybe it’s better to say, struggling to fill that hole amplifies the absences around it – but I’d expect Seattle to field enough regulars to look like themselves on Thursday.
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| When you google "motherfucker." |
I’ll post a regular scouting report between Thursday’s result and Wednesday’s game versus Dallas. Somewhat related, this next section kicks around what the Timbers might accomplish if they put together a good set of results between now and Leagues Cup – or what fate might befall them in the event they lay three to four rancid eggs. That process involves looking at the teams around them – from the 9th place LA Galaxy to last (15th) place Sporting KC – and circling back to what they looked like going into the World Cup break and what they have ahead of them before Leagues Cup. Each entry starts with the hard data and ends with me spit-balling on where they’ll go from there. Here goes…
9th - Los Angeles Galaxy
5-5-5, 20 pts.; 15 GP; 22 gf, 22 ga (0); home 2-2-3, away 3-3-2
Last 10 Results: LWDLWDWLWD (4-3-3)
Strength/Location of Schedule
v MIN (1-2 L); @ ATX (2-1 W); @ FCD (2-2 D); @ CLB (1-2 L); v RSL (2-1 W); v VAN (1-1 D); @ ATL (2-1 W); @ SKC (1-3 L); @ SEA (2-0 W); v HOU (1-1 D);
To Leagues Cup: N/A (not in Leagues Cup), aka, August 4th: v LAFC; v STL; @ SJ; v FCD
As you see in the above, LA has a wee breeze at their backs. The balance of their wins came against some of the league’s worst, wins over RSL and Seattle seem worth a sit up and hello; moreover, they pushed real teams for points as well (e.g., Vancouver and Dallas away). That was good to keep them six points above the Timbers, even with that shaky home record, but I see potential for slippage over those next four games. They shipped Gabriel Pec, for starters (what he did to Seattle…oof), and that’s a tough stretch in the 2026 Western Conference. Marco Reus (5 goals, 4 assists) has settled enough to erase the effects of another year on his legs and Joseph Paintsil’s recovery continues (3 goals, 4 assists); they had Joao Klauss running amok for a while, but his starts have evaporated (guessing injury) and things get quiet from there. Not a crazy bet to let the Timbers make up some ground.
10th - San Diego FC
4-6-5, 17 pts., 15 GP; 30 gf, 27 ga (+3); home 3-3-3, away 1-3-2
Last 10 Results: LLLLLDDWDL (1-6-3)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ SJ (0-3 L); v MIN (1-2 L); @ RSL (2-4 L); @ HOU (0-1 L); v POR (1-2 L); v LAFC (2-2 D); @ SEA (1-1 D); v ATX (5-0 W); v CIN (3-3 D); v VAN (2-4 L);
To Leagues Cup: @ COL; v FCD; @ MIN
The form of MLS’s sophomore side took a slide down that “cop slide” in Boston in the weeks before the World Cup break. They’ve since stopped losing everywhere they showed up (the road hasn’t been gentle), but they still dropped more points than they kept over their past five games…though, just to note it, they gave Seattle what-for in that road draw (could have won it, maybe shouldn’t have drawn it). I don’t know enough to say what ails them, though I do see reduced minutes for Amahl Pellegrino (who seems to help them) and a little instability in the starting XI (e.g., just six players with over 1,000 minutes, and it falls off pretty quick). The key players – e.g., Marcus Ingvartsen (11 goals, 4 assists), Andres Dreyer (6 goals, 9 assists), and Onni Valakari (3 goals, 5 assists) – continue to produce and they have reliable defensive starters in Manu Duah and Christopher McVey, but that is real slippage and those three games will test them. And San Diego’s a slim three points above Portland…
11th - Colorado Rapids
5-9-1, 16 pts., 15 GP; 25 gf, 24 ga (+1); home 3-3-0, away 2-6-1
Last 10 Results: LWLDLLLWLL (2-7-1)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ TFC (2-3 L); v HOU (6-2 W); v MIA (2-3 L); @ LAFC (0-0 D); @ VAN (1-3 L); @ HOU (0-1 L); v STL (0-1 L); @ MIN (1-0 W); @ RSL (1-2 L); v FCD (1-2 L);
To Leagues Cup: N/A (not in Leagues Cup); v SD; @ STL; v ATX
My current nominee for The Team Voted Most Likely to Slip. It’s the losses to peer teams that catch the eye – e.g., losing at Houston and RSL and, because they needed it more (see, away record), at home to Dallas. Their goals numbers look pinched (i.e., roughly even), which tells you they’re losing a bunch of close ones – seven, to be precise, at least over their past 10 games. Rafael Navarro’s doing all right (8 goals, 4 assists), but they were probably hoping to get some goals out of Dante Sealy (4 assists are good!) and a higher playmaker ceiling out of Paxten Aaronson (4 goals, 4 assists). Likely related, they look like another team struggling to field a steady starting eleven – only Aaronson, Navarro and Lucas Herrington have over 1,000 minutes – and the regular starts fall the single digits after the sixth player on the roster. On the(ir) plus side, that schedule should give them some relief – especially with two out of three games coming at home. The home record isn’t much better, but 50/50 beats the hell out of whatever 2-6-1 works out to.
12th - St. Louis CITY FC
4-6-4, 16 pts.; 14 GP; 16 gf, 20 ga (-4); home 3-2-1, away 1-4-3
Last 10 Results: WDDLLLWWDW (3-4-3)
Strength/Location of Schedule
v NE (3-1 W); @ NYC (1-1 D); @ FCD (1-1 D); @ SEA 1-4 L); v SJ (2-3 L); @ ATX (0-2 L); @ COL (1-0 W); v LAFC (2-1 W); @ DC (1-1 D); v ATX (3-0 W);
To Leagues Cup: N/A (not in Leagues Cup); v SKC; @ LAG; v COL; v RSL
It’s St. Louis’ little run at the end of their past 10 games that catches the eye: even the draw at DC seems credible enough. The uptick in scoring – St. Louis scored half their goals for 2026 over those last four games - has to feel a little encouraging too. Then again, 12th is 12th and this looks like yet another season where the limits of St. Louis’ original signings – most notably, Christian Teuchert (just 299 minutes so far), Eduard Lowen (259, but also a goal and an assist!) – leave the Marcel Hartel (it rhymes!) carrying the load on 3 goals and 2 assists. Of the parts they’ve called in to make it better, only Simon Becher has “delivered (1 goal, 4 assists), but St. Louis generally looks like a low-ceiling team with a decent defense. Still, credit where it’s due, they’ve done well lately, so I’ll be keeping tabs on what they do with those four pretty damn winnable games before the Leagues Cup break.
13th - Portland Timbers
4-8-2, 14 pts., 14 GP; 22 gf, 28 ga (-6); home 3-2-1, away 1-6-1
Last 10 Results: DLWLWLWDLL (3-5-2)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ HOU (2-3 L); v LAG (1-1 D); @ VAN (2-3 L); v LAFC (2-1 W); @ MIN (0-2 L); @ SD (2-1 W); v SKC (6-0 W); @ MTL (2-2 D); @ MIA (0-2 L); v SJ (1-3 L);
To Leagues Cup: @ SEA; v FCD; v RSL; v SEA
This one’s only hear for reference…
14th - Austin FC
3-7-5, 14 pts., 15 GP; 19 gf, 31 ga (-12); home 3-2-2, away 0-5-3
Last 10 Results: DLDLWWDLLL (2-5-3)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ MIA (2-2 D); v LAG (1-2 L); @ TFC (3-3 D); @ SJ (1-5 L); v HOU (2-0 W); v STL (2-0 W); @ MIN (2-2 D); @ SD (0-5 L); v SKC (1-2 L); @ STL (0-3 L);
To Leagues Cup: v SEA; @ HOU; @ COL
This could be my memory running away with me, but that little three-game spasm feels like their personal best for recent seasons. Beating Houston, St. Louis and drawing Minnesota is nothing to sniff at, but it only goes so far against the 0-5-2 results on either side of it. With Austin – and damn my soul if this turns on me – I feel we’ve reached the first team that only becomes a problem to the extent the Timbers fail. And those next three games? Yikes! Especially with that winless road record. In the thin plus column, the investment in Myrto Uzuni has finally kicked back returns, no matter how modest (5 goals, 4 assists) and I still like the Christian Ramirez signing (4 goals and 1 assist in 686 minutes). Facundo Torres is bringing the assists (6!), but this team needs goals – especially given the rate they’re bleeding them. It looks for all the world that Austin’s in the middle of another rough season, may Portland benefit from it…
15th - Sporting Kansas City
3-9-2, 11 pts., 14 GP; 14 gf, 36 ga (-22); home 1-4-2, away 2-5-0
Last 10 Results: LLLLLDLWWL (2-7-1)
Strength/Location of Schedule
v COL (1-4 L); @ RSL (1-3 L); v SJ (1-3 L); @ VAN (0-3 L); @ CHI (0-5 L); v SEA (1-1 D); @ POR (0-6 L); v LAG (3-1 W); @ ATX (2-1 W); v RBNY (1-2 L);
To Leagues Cup: N/A (not in Leagues Cup); @ STL; v MIN; @ LAFC; v HOU
Almost certainly destined to miss the playoffs, but, hey, so could Portland. The horrific five-game losing streak captured above - all reasonable losses, but deadly when they come back-to-back like that - dug that hole. The Timbers kicked SKC back down when they poked their heads out, but results have ticked up since then, if under favorable circumstances (e.g., hosting the Galaxy and playing Austin on the road). I’m not worried about this team in a way that almost makes me feel bad for them, but Dejan Joveljic does all right (6 goals, 2 assists) and they’re getting more out of Calvin Harris (2 goals, 4 assists) than I thought possible (and good for him). After Manu Garcia (1 goal, 4 assists), the “game changers” basically dry up and I can’t remember the last time SKC signed anyone that said “star quality.” That said, if they get anything above six points out of those next four games – which, to be clear, would impress me – I’d start paying attention.
That’s it for this one. The next post will recap whatever happens at Seattle.
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