 |
| We regret to inform you, etc. |
Let the record show that I skipped two beats this weekend; I
won’t be writing about FC Cincinnati’s loss at home to the Los Angeles Galaxy
or the Portland Timbers wholesome thrashing of the Houston Dynamo, also at
home. This content is stale enough as is, when you miss a wave, you miss a wave,
etc.
Moving on to the Major League Soccer week at hand –
during which, it bears noting, both the teams I follow (e.g., Cincinnati and
Portland) played – the results served up more confirmation than shake-up. For example (and details notwithstanding), the Galaxy beating
Cincinnati in Cincinnati is just meeting expectations. The same goes for the Colorado Rapids' 2-2 draw against
Vancouver at BC Place; good for the former, bad for the latter, but…well, raise
your hand if you see either of those teams as viable contenders. In a somewhat
indirect way, the same thing goes for the Chicago Fire’s 1-1 draw against RSL at
home: nothing about that result changes the calculus in either conference, even
if, at the same time, Chicago’s players should give Mo Adams a solid week’s
worth of side eye for that deeply ill-advised hand-ball. So long as you
view…more or less all of those teams as strictly undercard material (measure
the Zlatan Effect however you see fit), their results hardly demand careful study.
All the same, this severely truncated weekend wasn’t a total
waste. For instance, Portland’s full-frontal cleating of Houston, and the sad
fallout of Columbus Crew SC’s home loss to Sporting Kansas City hints at the
entrenchment of some potentially meaningful trends...going in different directions. Even if you factor in the
fact the Timbers bullied a pair of B-teams on the road, the fact that they
bullied them remains. Portland is showing vivid signs of life, basically, and
with a (crucially) fresh mix of personnel to boot. It’s harder to read SKC’s
win over Columbus as a sign of their revival, or as the continuing story of
Columbus’ continuing illness. Meanwhile, FC Dallas’ utterly
overwhelming demolition of Toronto FC falls into a different category all together
– i.e., is a short-handed TFC team a big enough mess that they can be safely
ignored, and what does that mean going forward?
Before I dig into the Info-Boxes that will fill in this
post’s considerable tail, a visit from the in-house Department of Corrections moved
me to revisit…a number of calls I made heading into the Gold Cup break (that
barely was). I’ll start with the key for the bottom-most cell in the Info-Boxes,
which I use to measure strength of schedule. When you see a “C” in the box
under a team, that means I rate them as a contender. “M+” means “mid-table, but
with some upside; “M-“ means mid-the wrong side of mid-table. Finally, “R” stands
for road kill, as in these are the teams your team should beat, and that you
absolutely should panic when they fail to do so. And that’s where the rub came
in.
In the post before the break, I rated the San Jose
Earthquakes, DC United and Orlando City SC as M- teams. With DC, sure, they
found a rut to wallow in, but they’re still tied for second in the East. With
San Jose and Orlando, they just seem the right combination of stubborn and
determined, and teams like that tend to take points off others; they’re
challenging to play, basically, and that makes them an M+ team in my book.
Going the other way, I had the Vancouver Whitecaps and the Chicago Fire at M+,
and, if you look at both teams’ recent form and consider…just them, they're so fucking M-, vicious threats to draw other teams at worst…
…oh, and I can’t remotely justify where I have the Montreal
Impact - I rated 'em M- - but I can't argue myself into changing it. Based on what I’ve seen of them, they’re as
big a threat to themselves as they are to others. And I did update all the data
down below to reflect the corrections noted above. Call it penance.
All right, time to wrap things up with the Info-Boxes.
Calling all masochists! Feedin’ time!
CONTENDERS
LOS ANGELES FC, 11-1-4,
37 points, 39 gf, 13 ga, (7-0-1 home, 4-1-3 away)
Last 10 games: WLWDDWWDWW (6-1-3)
Last 10 at home: WWDWW
Last 10 away: LDWDW
Strength of Schedule: More soft than hard, but they’re still
rockin’ it.
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
|
v CIN
|
a VAN
|
v SEA
|
a SEA
|
v CHI
|
a CLB
|
v FCD
|
a FCD
|
v MTL
|
a POR
|
|
2-0
|
0-1
|
4-1
|
1-1
|
0-0
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
1-1
|
4-2
|
3-2
|
|
R
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. Running away with the league till further
notice.
Next Games: @ Colorado (6/28), @ SKC (7/3), v
Vancouver (7/6), @ Houston (7/12), @ LA Galaxy (7/19). At least three of those
matches should stretch them a bit, but LAFC has been fine on the road. I’d
expect 7+ points, but anything more than 9 should prompt the rest of MLS to
form one of them alliances, like they do on reality TV shows.
PHILADELPHIA UNION, 9-4-4,
31 points, 31 gf, 20 ga, (6-2-2 home, 3-2-2 away)
Last 10 games: WDWWWDLDWW (6-1-3)
Last 10 at home: WWWDLD
Last 10 away: DWW
Strength of Schedule: Pretty soft, which makes the win over
Red Bulls look bigger.
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
|
v MTL
|
a VAN
|
v CIN
|
v NE
|
a TFC
|
v SEA
|
v POR
|
v COL
|
a MIN
|
v NYR
|
|
3-0
|
1-1
|
3-0
|
6-1
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
1-3
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
3-2
|
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
M-
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
C
|
Notes. Still, mind the DLD sequence they put together
hosting West coast teams, but it’s 6-0-1 outside of that. Also, note the
home/road imbalance, and see where it goes. Very, very soon.
Next Games. @ New England (6/26), @ NYCFC (6/29), @
Orlando (7/3), v Orlando (7/6), @ RSL (7/13). Starts with the kind of road test
where a true contender picks up points – especially v. conference rivals. As
much as anything else, bring the data, y’all!
ATLANTA UNITED FC,
8-5-2, 26 points, 19 gf, 11 ga, (5-1-2 home, 3-4-0 away)
Last 10 games: LWWWWWLLWW (7-3-0)
Last 10 at home: LWWWWW
Last 10 away: WWLL
Strength of Schedule: It’s been easy, but they’ve also been
good.
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
|
v FCD
|
v COL
|
a SKC
|
v TFC
|
v ORL
|
a VAN
|
a NYR
|
a RSL
|
v MIN
|
v CHI
|
|
1-2
|
1-0
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
|
M+
|
M-
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
Notes. Both Red Bulls and RSL are rude hosts, but do
keep an eye on that road record going forward. Also, Atlanta has become the
defensive juggernaut no one had any reason to expect.
Next Game. @ TFC (6/26), v Montreal (6/29), @ Chicago
(7/3), v Red Bulls (7/7), @ Seattle (7/14). I can see them winning every one of
those games, even if I doubt they will. With three road games in the mix, three
wins over the next five games is pretty goddamn serious.
NEW YORK RED BULLS,
7-6-3, 24 points, 27 gf, 19 ga, (5-3-1 home, 2-3-2 away)
Last Ten: LWWLWWDWWL (6-3-1)
Last 10 at home: WWLWDW
Last 10 away: LWWL
Strength of Schedule: Reasonable mix, but a lot of home
games…again, the Philly loss.
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
|
a NE
|
v CIN
|
v LAG
|
v MTL
|
a FCD
|
v ATL
|
v VAN
|
a CIN
|
v RSL
|
a PHI
|
|
0-1
|
1-0
|
3-2
|
1-2
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
2-2
|
2-0
|
4-0
|
2-3
|
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
Notes. They’re methodically stacking up results, but
the under-current with the Red Bulls shows up in their box scores: they don’t
generate a lot of chances - the win over RSL was an outlier; the win over Dallas is closer to their normal – so they’re grinding out games more than most
people might appreciate.
Next Games. v Chicago (6/28), @ Houston (7/3), @
Atlanta (7/7), v NYCFC (7/14), @ TFC (7/17). That’s a gauntlet filled with
pointy things, at least until Toronto. That stretch will tell you a lot about
how seriously to take the Red Bulls.
NEW YORK CITY FC, 5-1-8,
23 points, 23 gf, 17 ga, (2-0-4 home, 3-1-4 away)
Last 10 games: DDWWDWWDDW (5-0-5)
Last 10 at home: DWDW
Last 10 away: DWWWDD
Strength of Schedule: Softer than hard, and therefore
something to watch.
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
|
v MTL
|
a MIN
|
a DC
|
v CHI
|
v ORL
|
a MTL
|
a LAG
|
a CHI
|
a CLB
|
v CIN
|
|
0-0
|
3-3
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
2-0
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
5-2
|
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
R
|
R
|
Notes. All five wins have come in their last 10 games.
If they can build on that trend, and keep stealing points on the road, they
could eat the competition in post-season.
Next Game: v Philly (6/29), v Seattle (7/3), v
Portland (7/6), @ Red Bulls (7/14), @ Colorado (7/20). I called that “a
freakin’ gauntlet” going into the break, now I’m less sure. If they don’t pick
up half the points over the next five, I’ll merrily downgrade them.
MID-TABLE PLUS
PORTLAND TIMBERS, 5-7-2,
17 points, 23 gf, 26 ga, (1-1-0 home, 4-6-2 away)
Last 10 games: LLWWWLDWLW (5-4-1)
Last 10 at home: LW
Last 10 away: LLWWWLDW
Strength of Schedule: The earlier wins don’t look as good…but
the late results do.
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
|
a SJ
|
a FCD
|
a CLB
|
a TFC
|
a RSL
|
a VAN
|
a HOU
|
a PHI
|
v LAF
|
v HOU
|
|
0-3
|
1-2
|
3-1
|
2-1
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
2-3
|
4-0
|
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
M+
|
Notes. No longer last in the West, motherfuckers! DO YOU FEEL THE BREEZE!? I
haven’t seen the whole damn game and don’t know if I ever will, but color me
delirious at seeing the Timbers get sturdy outings from Marvin Loria (one goal,
plus one goal offering on his MLS debut), Renzo Zambrano (I assume he delivered),
and a pretty damn slick (if late, pile-on) goal from Jeremy Ebobisse. Because
the Timbers best team can compete with just about any team in MLS, any sign
that they can compete with their depth spells “staying power.” The Timbers have walloped two Western Conference teams in a row, and in separate competitions,
but both teams have been shorthanded. Enjoy your grain of salt…
Next Games. @ Montreal (6/26), v Dallas (6/30),
@NYCFC (7/7), v Colorado (7/13), v Orlando (7/18). To send this directly to the
intersection of hope and probability, I want to see Portland get 12 points out
of its next five games. I’ll need emotional support if they stall at six
points.
LOS ANGELES GALAXY, 10-6-1,
31 points, 24 gf, 19 ga, (6-3-0 home, 4-3-1 away)
Last 10 games: WLLLLWWWLW (5-5-0)
Last 10 at home: WLLL
Last 10 away: DLLWWW
Strength of Schedule: I’m seeing a lot of “Rs” in there.
They’re doing what they should, but only just.
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
|
a MIN
|
v RSL
|
a RB
|
a CLB
|
v NYC
|
v COL
|
a ORL
|
a SKC
|
v NE
|
a CIN
|
|
0-0
|
2-1
|
2-3
|
1-3
|
0-2
|
0-1
|
1-0
|
2-0
|
1-2
|
2-0
|
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
R
|
Notes. They got two goals in just about as many
minutes while FC Cincinnati was getting its pants on – and from unlikely
players – but beating Cincinnati is just meeting expectations.
They’ve also become road kings in recent weeks…well everywhere except Portland,
where their greener recruits got run over by the Timbers (so much for depth).
That said, sitting through 90+ minutes of them against Cincinnati hardly
deepened my faith in their record. This team still looks one big Zlatan away
from pedestrian.
Next Games. @ San Jose (6/29), v TFC (7/4), v San
Jose (7/12), v LAFC (7/19) @ Portland (7/27). Their road warrior days continue,
but I’m watching that (nearly back-to-back) double against San Jose as a solid
way to take their temperature.
HOUSTON DYNAMO, 7-4-3,
24 points, 21 gf, 18 ga, (6-0-3 home, 1-4-0 away)
Last 10 games: WLWWLDWLDL (4-4-2)
Last 10 at home: WWWDWD
Last 10 away: LLLL
Strength of Schedule: Fairly soft, and with most games at
home. Keep an eye on this one.
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
|
v SJ
|
a LAG
|
v CLB
|
v FCD
|
a SEA
|
v POR
|
v DC
|
a MIN
|
v SKC
|
a POR
|
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
2-0
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
0-4
|
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
Notes. They got bullied pretty goddamn hard by the
Timbers on their road return to MLS. Saying they didn’t have their starters (Portland
did, but rested a guy here, maybe covered for international duty) glosses over
the deeper reality that their road game has reverted to (poor) form and that
their depth is suspect. Full disclosure, and due to MLS’s/ESPN’s extended
regional black-out, I’m leaning heavily on the box score for interpretation.
They’ll be a better team when the starters return, and probably a playoff team,
but that they need more variety in the road form than straight “Ls” before I’d
pay them much mind.
Next. @ San Jose (6/26), @ New England (6/29), v Red
Bulls (7/3), @ Cincinnati (7/6), v LAFC (7/12). They have some gentle(-ish)
road games ahead, and that’s what I’m watching for; if they can’t win in those
venues – especially at Cincinnati – I
don’t see how you rate their chances. Anything less than six points out of those
next five games makes a case for selling your Houston stock.
FC DALLAS, 7-6-4, 25
points, 25 gf, 22 ga, (5-1-3 home, 2-5-1 away)
Last 10 games: WDLLLDLWDW (3-4-3)
Last 10 at home: DLDWW
Last 10 away: WLLLD
Strength of Schedule: One of the toughest last 10 in MLS,
which MIGHT explain some things.
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
|
a ATL
|
v SJ
|
a HOU
|
v RB
|
a LAF
|
v LAF
|
a VAN
|
v SEA
|
a SJ
|
v TFC
|
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
1-2
|
1-3
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
1-2
|
2-1
|
2-2
|
3-0
|
|
C
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
Notes. Limited as that Toronto team was, Dallas
straight-up ran them over. That first goal looked like garbage, but you have to understand it came after an avalanche's worth of pressure. TFC is not good right now – and I’m not sure
they will be all season – but Dallas appropriately buried a game against a
limping foe, and that’s what any fan-base wants to see. Oh, and the road record’s
getting ugly.
Next Games. v Vancouver (6/26), @ Portland (6/30), v DC
(7/4), @ Minnesota, @ SKC (7/20). The win over TFC gives them a good start in a
stretch where they could pick up so Joe-mentum. I’d call nine points would be a
good haul.
REAL SALT LAKE, 6-8-2,
20 points, 22 gf, 28 ga, (4-2-0 home, 2-6-2 away)
Last 10 games: WWLLWWWLLD (5-4-1)
Last 10 at home: WLWW
Last 10 away: WLWLLD
Strength of Schedule: Another case where strength of
schedule thickens the plot; over half of the
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
|
v ORL
|
a CIN
|
a LAG
|
v POR
|
a COL
|
v TFC
|
v ATL
|
a MTL
|
a NYR
|
a CHI
|
|
2-1
|
3-0
|
1-2
|
1-2
|
3-2
|
3-0
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
0-4
|
1-1
|
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
Notes. I’d call a road draw against Chicago a good
result, all in all. Neither team did much, which says RSL can contain back a
mediocre attack, regardless of venue. They can also beat shaky teams on the
road (see above), and enough of those should keep them in the post-season conversation.
They don’t, however, look like a good bet to go deep.
Next Games: v SKC (6/29), v Columbus (7/3), @ San
Jose (7/6), v Philadelphia (7/13), v Minnesota (7/20). As I said last time
around, RSL can re-write the script during a stretch like that…a home game
against Minnesota just underlines it. That’s a massive stretch for them, so
watch this space.
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES,
5-6-4, 19 points, 23 gf, 27 ga, (4-3-1 home, 1-3-3 away)
Last 10 games: LWDDWLWWDD (4-2-4)
Last 10 at home: WWWD
Last 10 away: LDDLWD
Strength of Schedule: A team very much playing to its
real-world level.
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
|
a HOU
|
v SKC
|
a SEA
|
a FCD
|
v CIN
|
a NE
|
v CHI
|
a TFC
|
a DC
|
v FCD
|
|
1-2
|
4-1
|
2-2
|
0-0
|
1-0
|
1-3
|
4-1
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
Notes. They follow the RSL template to some extent,
in that they can beat anyone and Chris Wondolowski can’t stop scoring, but
there’s still a whiff of Daniel Vega’s Mistake about them. Still, the losses
have slowed way down – and I can’t say the same about some teams I still compelled to rate.
Next Games: v Houston (6/26), v LA Galaxy (6/29), @
Minnesota (7/3), v RSL (7/6), @ LA Galaxy (7/13). Even as I expect them to
continue to muddle through, I want to see what they do with those five games;
it’s all Western Conference, but the attenuated series against LA feels like
the one to watch (and a good chance to flip the script). Anything north of
seven points – which feels doable - would be solid and keep them live…for a
while.
SEATTLE SOUNDERS,
7-4-5, 26 points, 26 gf, 21 ga, (6-0-2 home, 1-4-3 away)
Last 10 games: LDDDWWDLLL (2-4-4)
Last 10 at home: DDWW
Last 10 away: LDDLLL
Strength of Schedule: That’s a tougher than average run, and
I’m crediting them that to keep them above M-, but losing to SKC and Montreal,
even on the road…just, damn.
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
|
a LAF
|
v SJ
|
v LAF
|
a MIN
|
v HOU
|
v ORL
|
a PHI
|
a SKC
|
a FCD
|
a MTL
|
|
1-4
|
2-2
|
1-1
|
1-1
|
1-0
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
2-3
|
1-2
|
1-2
|
|
C
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. Something feels different this season for the
team that could always stand on its defense’s shoulder and catch up. Also,
they’re dying on the road.
Next Games. v Vancouver (6/29), @ NYCFC (7/3), @
Columbus (7/6), @ Atlanta (7/14), v Portland (7/27). With two really tough road
games in that mix, the home games in their next five grow a little taller.
Anything less than six points over the full stretch deserves attention.
DC UNITED, 7-4-6, 27
points, 23 gf, 18 ga, (4-2-3 home, 3-2-3 away)
Last 10 games: LWLWWDLDDD (3-3-4)
Last 10 at home: LWWDD
Last 10 away: WLDLD
Strength of Schedule: The correlation between wins and weak
opponents jumps out...
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
D
|
|
v NYC
|
a CLB
|
a MIN
|
v CLB
|
v SKC
|
a TFC
|
a HOU
|
a NE
|
v CHI
|
v SJ
|
|
0-2
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
0-0
|
1-2
|
1-1
|
3-3
|
1-1
|
|
C
|
R
|
R
|
R
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. Having the grid as a visual really draws out
DC’s malaise; it also begs the question of whether Columbus is the only team
they can beat. Worse, it seems like they can’t get things all the way right in
any given area.
Next Game: v Orlando (6/26), v TFC (6/29), @ Dallas
(7/4), v Red Bulls (7/7), @ Seattle (7/14). It’s what they do over those first
two games that you want to watch – and neither are gimmes. If they look like
the last two games, DC is officially struggling.
ORLANDO CITY SC,
5-7-3, 18 points, 22 gf, 21 ga, (3-4-1 home, 2-3-2 away)
Last 10 games: WLWDLLLWLW (4-5-1)
Last 10 at home: WWLWL
Last 10 away: LDLLW
Strength of Schedule: Another team more or less finding its
level in real-time.
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
|
v COL
|
a RSL
|
v VAN
|
a NYC
|
v TFC
|
a ATL
|
a SEA
|
v CIN
|
v LAG
|
a MTL
|
|
4-3
|
1-2
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
5-1
|
0-1
|
3-0
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. They’re still good for the odd, absolutely
terrible run of results (see above), but they’re also not a team anyone wants
to mess with. They’re tough, they play with pride and they have enough weapons
to be dangerous.
Next Games. @ DC (6/26), @ Columbus (6/29), v
Philadelphia (7/3), @ Philadelphia (7/6), v Columbus (7/13). Ah, look. Matching
Eastern Conference six-pointers against Philly and Columbus. This should be
very, very educational all ‘round.
MID-TABLE MINUS
COLORADO RAPIDS, 4-9-4,
16 points, 27 gf, 36 ga, (3-4-2 home, 1-5-2 away)
Last 10 games: LLLLWWDWWD (4-4-2)
Last 10 at home: LLWWW
Last 10 away: LLWDD
Strength of Schedule: This Info-Box puts a different shine
on their recent results. Sure, they’re winning, but who are they beating?
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
|
a CHI
|
a ATL
|
v VAN
|
v RSL
|
a LAG
|
v CLB
|
a PHI
|
v CIN
|
v MIN
|
a VAN
|
|
4-1
|
0-1
|
2-3
|
2-3
|
1-0
|
3-2
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
2-2
|
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
M-
|
Notes. “How much did losing Benny Feilhaber and
gaining Conor Casey as an interim coach help them?” We’re still learning that,
but the Rapids have unquestionably made the most of their assets since…that
guy, their coach, left (Anthony Hudson?). The condensed game showed a good
share of moments for Colorado, but it also showed Tim Howard bailing out one ass after another.
Coughing up the points sucks (for them), but this was still a competitive
results against a team on the margin.
Next Game: v LAFC (6/28), v New England (7/4), @
Portland (7/14), v NYCFC (7/20), @ San Jose (7/27). We are about to learn a lot
about Colorado. If they get more than six points out of that stretch – and that
assumes most present trends continue – I’ll be impressed.
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS,
4-6-7, 19 points, 19 gf, 22 ga, (3-3-4 home, 1-3-3 away)
Last 10 games: LDWWLDDWDD (3-2-5)
Last 10 at home: DWLWDD
Last 10 away: LWDD
Strength of Schedule: They have some good results in there –
if you trust my math, they’re 3-1-0 against “M+” teams.
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
|
a ORL
|
v PHI
|
a COL
|
v POR
|
v ATL
|
a SKC
|
a NYR
|
v FCD
|
v TFC
|
v COL
|
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
Notes. Holy crap, could this game have got away from the ‘Caps – and do mind my view of Colorado (for now). At the same time, they
really did pile on the pressure, and they do have a couple serious, real-time
weapons in Yordy Reyna and Ali Adnan. I suspect they’ll take part in whatever
tug-o’-war pulls back and forth across the playoff line, but those last three
results put sharp questions to that.
Next Games. @ Dallas (6/26), @ Seattle (6/29), @ LAFC
(7/6), v SKC (7/13), @ New England (7/17). Against those next five games,
Vancouver’s growing habit of playing for draws looks like a prelude to doom. At
least three of those read like probable losses.
CHICAGO FIRE, 4-6-7,
19 points, 25 gf, 24 ga, (4-1-4 home, 0-5-3 away)
Last 10 games: LLDWWLDDLD (2-4-4)
Last 10 at home: WWDD
Last 10 away: LLDLDL
Strength of Schedule: Another tough schedule, and the same
set of result as FC Dallas. Food for thought? (Fwiw, I landed on “no.”)
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
|
a NYC
|
a MTL
|
a LAF
|
v NE
|
v MIN
|
a SJ
|
v NYC
|
a DC
|
a ATL
|
v RSL
|
|
0-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
5-0
|
2-0
|
1-4
|
1-1
|
3-3
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
Notes. I still think I’d start selling Chicago stock.
Whatever the quality of their parts (e.g., Gaitan, Schweinsteiger, McCarty –
the latter started some good situations last weekend), nothing I saw between
the condensed game and the box score tells me they did much to put RSL back on
their heels. Sputterings of that sort should dent one’s faith in a team. Hence the
downgrade.
Next Games. @ Red Bulls (6/29), v Atlanta (7/3), @
SKC (7/6), v Cincinnati (7/13) v Columbus (7/17). “They need six points minimum
out of that (RSL and Cincy).” While I give them slim chances of getting more
than stray points out of their next three, the State of Ohio has very much
giveneth in 2019. I don’t think whupping minnows wins trophies.
MINNESOTA UNITED FC,
6-7-3, 21 points, 23 gf, 25 ga, (3-1-3 home, 3-6-0 away)
Last 10 games: LDWDLWWLLL (3-5-2)
Last 10 at home: DWDWWL
Last 10 away: LLLL
Strength of Schedule: Their recent results suddenly look
less bleak all of the sudden.
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
|
a TFC
|
v LAG
|
v DC
|
v SEA
|
a CHI
|
v CLB
|
v HOU
|
a ATL
|
v PHI
|
a COL
|
|
3-4
|
0-0
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
0-2
|
1-0
|
1-0
|
0-3
|
2-3
|
0-1
|
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
Notes. They’re standing up to decent teams at home
(but is that good?), but their early returns on road games have evaporated.
It just seems like they’re playing to a mid-table level, and I count at least
three teams below them with a decent chance of crawling over them.
Next Games. v Cincinnati (6/29), v San Jose (7/3), @
Montreal (7/6), v Dallas (7/13), v RSL (7/20). Every one of those home games is
a must-win – the first with bells on. All the Western Conference rivalry teams
will be real tests, but I’d glare a jaundiced eye at anything south of 8 points
from these next five games. That's a lot of home...
MONTREAL IMPACT, 8-7-3,
27 points, 21 gf, 28 ga, (4-2-1 home, 4-5-2 away)
Last 10 games: WWLWLDLWLW (5-4-1)
Last 10 at home: WLDWLW
Last 10 away: WWL
Strength of Schedule: Not quite the opposite of opponents
and results lining up, but not far off either. I mean, who gets a road win at
Red Bull Arena than dies at home against Orlando?
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
|
a NE
|
v CHI
|
v NYC
|
a RB
|
a CIN
|
v NE
|
a LAF
|
v RSL
|
v ORL
|
v SEA
|
|
3-0
|
1-0
|
2-0
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
0-0
|
2-4
|
2-1
|
0-3
|
2-1
|
|
M-
|
M-
|
C
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. I’d say that looking at the last eight games
from the 10 above tells you everything you need to know about L’Impact. Hell,
the results against RSL and Orlando might be sufficient. Erratic as hell. Absent
a little Ignacio Piatti magic, I think they hover around nowhere in 2019.
Next Games. v Portland (6/26), @ Atlanta (6/29), v
Minnesota (7/6), v TFC (7/13), @ Columbus (7/20). God knows what they get out
of that, but I’m putting my marker down on at least six points. Because
Montreal. To put down another marker, I’ll cut out the crap if they beat
Portland at home. ‘em th
NEW ENGLAND REVS,
4-8-4, 16 points, 17 gf, 33 ga, (3-4-1 home, 1-4-3 away)
Last 10 games: LWLDLLWDDW (3-4-3)
Last 10 at home: LWLWD
Last 10 away: DLLDW
Strength of Schedule: Impressive as the turn-around has
been, they should’ve done better by my math.
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
|
v ATL
|
v NYR
|
v MTL
|
a SKC
|
a PHI
|
a CHI
|
v SJ
|
a MTL
|
v DC
|
a LAG
|
|
0-2
|
1-0
|
0-3-
|
4-4
|
1-6
|
0-5
|
3-1
|
0-0
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
Notes. Did getting rid of
Brad Friedel pay off? Or will that trip over whatever success Bruce Arena
enjoys? The trick with the Revs is that they have talent. The question is how
much you can get out of it. And whether or not Arena is the man to do it.
(Friedel, clearly, was not.)
Next Games. v Philadelphia (6/26), v Houston (6/29),
@ Colorado (7/4), @ DC (7/12), v Vancouver (7/17). Even with a recovery, that’s
a tough run of games. They need to get that home record headed in the right direction
if they’re gonna make noise in 2019…
…oh, look, the trap-door. Why not start with the beast most
likely to break out?
ROAD-KILL
SPORTING KC, 4-5-7, 19
points, 27 gf, 27 ga, (3-2-3 home, 1-3-4 away)
Last 10 games: LDLLDWLWDW (3-4-3)
Last 10 at home: DLDWL
Last 10 away: LLDDW
Strength of Schedule: Another case where the
results/opponent tea leaves spell doom.
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
|
a SJ
|
v NE
|
v ATL
|
a DC
|
v VAN
|
v SEA
|
v LAG
|
a HOU
|
a TFC
|
a CLB
|
|
1-4
|
4-4
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
1-0
|
|
M+
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
R
|
Notes. They rolled into the season looking like one
of the most talented and, crucially, deepest teams in MLS, and now they’re
scrapping for points away to the meltdown called Crew SC. If Gerso Fernandes
doesn’t get a bonus for this one, the incentives are all wrong. When you are a team trying to rise from the dead, those kinds of plays carry you. Elsewhere, Krisztian
Nemeth continues to squander every chance he gets and Tim Melia still holds the crown of best pool-‘keeper in MLS history. 2-1-3 in their last six makes a case that
they’re evening out…but they need to climb.
Next Games. @ RSL (6/29), v LAFC (7/3), v Chicago
(7/3), @ Vancouver (7/13), v Dallas (7/20). Getting three wins out of that
stretch would get me to buy-in. Maybe even M+.
TORONTO FC, 5-7-4, 19
points, 26 gf, 28 ga, (3-3-3 home, 2-4-1 away)
Last 10 games: LWLLDLLDDL (1-6-3)
Last 10 at home: LLDL
Last 10 away: LWLLDL
Strength of Schedule: The last five games show how bad
Toronto really has been.
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
L
|
|
v POR
|
a ORL
|
a ATL
|
v PHI
|
v DC
|
a RSL
|
v SJ
|
a VAN
|
v SKC
|
a FCD
|
|
1-2
|
2-0
|
0-2
|
1-2
|
0-0
|
0-3
|
1-2
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
0-3
|
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
Notes. Every time calling Toronto dead feels like a
hot take, they get run over by Dallas. That said, watching Dallas’ third,
frankly delectable goal shows Toronto at their sixes-and-sevens worst. They’re
never all there and, when they are, Toronto just isn’t that good.
Next Games. v Atlanta (6/26), @ DC (6/29), @ LA
Galaxy (7/4), @ Montreal (7/13), v Red Bulls (7/17). “If they’re gonna flip the
script, they need to start doing it now.” Yeah, no, not against that run of
games. Away to Montreal looks like their best bet in that entire run. Where’s
your money on that one?
COLUMBUS CREW SC, 5-10-2,
17 points, 16 gf, 25 ga, (4-4-2 home, 1-6-0 away)
Last 10 games: LLLLWLLLDL (1-8-1)
Last 10 at home: LLWLDL
Last 10 away: LLLL
Strength of Schedule: They get some comfort from the quality
of opposition in their last five, but not nearly enough.
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
|
v POR
|
v DC
|
a HOU
|
a DC
|
v LAG
|
v LAF
|
a MIN
|
a COL
|
v NYC
|
v SKC
|
|
1-3
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
3-1
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
2-3
|
2-2
|
0-1
|
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
C
|
R
|
Notes. Their fullbacks returned in this game, but to
very little effect. For what it’s worth, I put their ceiling at a player for
whom I once had high hopes: Patrick Mullins doesn’t always miss first-look sitters, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that he’s not the kind of forward
who can do what needs doing in Columbus’ set-up…related, has anyone else set up
a “Caleb Porter Watch” yet?
Next Games. v Orlando (6/29), @ RSL (7/3), v Seattle
(7/6), @ Orlando (7/13), @ Chicago (7/17). They could have an easier run, but –
and I mean no offense to Orlando – if they can’t get four points out of those
two games, and they can’t make up the points elsewhere, this team drops to pay
no mind.
FC CINCINNATI, 3-12-2,
11 points, 14 gf, 35 ga, (2-4-1 home, 1-8-1 away)
Last 10 games: LLLLWLLLLL (1-9-0)
Last 10 at home: LWLLL
Last 10 away: LLLLL
Strength of Schedule: Yeah, they’re dying, but they’ve also
played a tough schedule lately.
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
|
v RSL
|
a NYR
|
a PHI
|
a SJ
|
v MTL
|
a ORL
|
v NYR
|
a COL
|
a NYC
|
v LAG
|
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
0-1
|
2-1
|
1-5
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
2-5
|
0-2
|
|
M-
|
C
|
C
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
Notes. Sure, the game would have played out
differently had LA not scored two goals in as many minutes in the first half.
Outside those make-out sessions with a tire fire, Cincinnati 1) wasn’t so
bad, while 2) continue to be headless. The Galaxy was the better team,
without question, but FC Cincy had their chances, players like Leonardo
Bertone, Kekuta Manneh, and Emmanuel Ledesma are coming together to where they
could really boost a guy like Roland Lamah when he returns (or, gasp, Fanendo Adi?). The two fuck-ups
aside (and in-game dynamics notwithstanding), Cincinnati’s defense played a
globally decent game once they did less screwing up.
Next Games. @ Minnesota (6/29), v Houston (7/6), @
Chicago (7/13), v DC (7/18), v New England (7/21). I want them to get more than
four points out of this stretch, even if I’m not sure where they do it.
Anything above six points indicates they’ve figured something out.
All right, till next weekend.
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