 |
| One of the many wild cards in play right now. |
With the league taking a break to accommodate Gold Cup 2019,
the schedulers at Major League Soccer HQ decided to put the regular season on
hold until June 22, i.e., when teams across CONCACAF will play...their second
group stage game. I don’t know what to say, except that the schedulers seem to
like the U.S. Men’s chances about as much as anybody – which is to say, not at
all.
Still, with the league on ice for just short of two weeks,
I wanted to post this place-holder on the state of play across MLS. Also, with
21 of the league’s 24 teams having 15 games under their belts, it finally feels
like pundits have enough data to make generally applicable statements about how
every team in the league stacks up in terms of form and quality. I’ve made my
own judgments below by lumping them into four broad categories. And
those are:
Contenders: The teams who win more often than not and
who look like reasonable bets for the playoffs and beyond.
Mid-Table Plus: Teams more likely to beat your team
than not, if depending on circumstances (the Houston Dynamo defines this
category), but without showing clear signs they can hang with the contenders.
Mid-Table Minus: Teams who are unlikely to compete
for anything real (e.g., “we're focusing on Cup play”), but who can be a real pain
in the ass when you play them – again, circumstances depending.
Road-Kill: The league’s reliable patsies, the team
your team should dunk on every time, and you should be sad when they don’t.
A real select group, this one…
I used those four loose categories to come up with the
freshly-added “strength of schedule” information now folded into the Info-Boxes
down below. And, because that took no small amount of work, and because I’ve
got much, much (much, much) more left to do tonight, I’m calling this preamble
finished. Just one final note:
For the same reason that it’s hard to meaningfully rank
teams, it’s hard to precisely lump teams into four categories. Also, this post
came together in stages – e.g., I did the strength of schedule work after
writing my notes on every team – so there might be a contradiction or two
below. And some typos. I endeavored to keep both to a minimum - but I'd pay more mind to the strength of schedule stuff because that dug up real wrinkles in six (6) cases (wow). With that, here is
this data dump.
CONTENDERS
LOS ANGELES FC, 11-1-4,
37 points, 39 gf, 13 ga, (7-0-1 home, 4-1-3 away)
Last 10 games: WLWDDWWDWW (6-1-3)
Last 10 at home: WWDWW
Last 10 away: LDWDW
Strength of Schedule: More soft than hard, but they’re still
rockin’ it.
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
|
v CIN
|
a VAN
|
v SEA
|
a SEA
|
v CHI
|
a CLB
|
v FCD
|
a FCD
|
v MTL
|
a POR
|
|
2-0
|
0-1
|
4-1
|
1-1
|
0-0
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
1-1
|
4-2
|
3-2
|
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. Running away the league at present, and in a
way that should remind people how simple The Beautiful Game can be: it’s all
about scoring more goals than you allow. Doing it three times as often wins you
titles. I will harp on the midfield three of Kaye, Blessing and Atuesta till
someone gags me; that’s the secret of their success.
Next Games: @ Colorado (6/28), @ SKC (7/3), v Vancouver
(7/6), @ Houston (7/12), @ LA Galaxy (7/19). At least three of those matches
should stretch them a bit, but LAFC has been fine on the road. I’d expect 7+
points, and anything more than 9 should feel ominous.
PHILADELPHIA UNION, 9-4-4,
31 points, 31 gf, 20 ga, (6-2-2 home, 3-2-2 away)
Last 10 games: WDWWWDLDWW (6-1-3)
Last 10 at home: WWWDLD
Last 10 away: DWW
Strength of Schedule: Pretty soft, which makes the win over
Red Bulls look bigger.
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
|
v MTL
|
a VAN
|
v CIN
|
v NE
|
a TFC
|
v SEA
|
v POR
|
v COL
|
a MIN
|
v NYR
|
|
3-0
|
1-1
|
3-0
|
6-1
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
1-3
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
3-2
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
C
|
Notes. There’s a weird wobble in Philly’s recent
history – the DLD they put up hosting West coast teams through three home
games, but it’s 6-0-1 outside of that. Another sturdy, well-constructed team
with good depth (e.g., Fabian has barely worked, but Aaronson is there), and
special pieces (Medunjanin and, especially, Ilsinho) in useful places.
Next Games. @ New England (6/26), @ NYCFC (6/29), @
Orlando (7/3), v Orlando (7/6), @ RSL (7/13). Starts with the kind of road test
where a true contender picks up points – especially v. conference rivals.
ATLANTA UNITED FC, 8-5-2,
26 points, 19 gf, 11 ga, (5-1-2 home, 3-4-0 away)
Last 10 games: LWWWWWLLWW (7-3-0)
Last 10 at home: LWWWWW
Last 10 away: WWLL
Strength of Schedule: It’s been easy, but they’ve also been
really damn good.
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
|
v FCD
|
v COL
|
a SKC
|
v TFC
|
v ORL
|
a VAN
|
a NYR
|
a RSL
|
v MIN
|
v CHI
|
|
1-2
|
1-0
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
|
M+
|
M-
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
Notes. Had you told people last year that Atlanta’s
defense would carry them in 2019, I doubt they would’ve bought it. But here it
is, clearly league-best. With the attack coming online – especially Martinez –
Atlanta is all the way back. Both Red Bulls and RSL are tough home teams, but do
keep an eye on that road record going forward.
Next Game. @ TFC (6/26), v Montreal (6/29), @ Chicago
(7/3), v Red Bulls (7/7), @ Seattle (7/14). Put it this way: I can see them
winning every one of those games, even if I doubt they will. With three road
games in the mix, three wins over the time is pretty goddamn serious.
NEW YORK RED BULLS, 7-6-3,
24 points, 27 gf, 19 ga, (5-3-1 home, 2-3-2 away)
Last Ten: LWWLWWDWWL (6-3-1)
Last 10 at home: WWLWDW
Last 10 away: LWWL
Strength of Schedule: Reasonable mix, but a lot of home
games…again, the Philly loss.
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
|
a NE
|
v CIN
|
v LAG
|
v MTL
|
a FCD
|
v ATL
|
v VAN
|
a CIN
|
v RSL
|
a PHI
|
|
0-1
|
1-0
|
3-2
|
1-2
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
2-2
|
2-0
|
4-0
|
2-3
|
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
Notes. They’re methodically stacking up results, but
the under-current with the Red Bulls shows up in their box scores: they don’t
generate a lot of chances - the win over RSL was an outlier; the win over Dallas is closer to their normal – so they’re grinding out games more than most
people might appreciate.
Next Games. v Chicago (6/28), @ Houston (7/3), @
Atlanta (7/7), v NYCFC (7/14), @ TFC (7/17). That’s a gauntlet filled with
pointy things, at least until Toronto. That stretch will tell you a lot about
how seriously to take the Red Bulls.
NEW YORK CITY FC, 5-1-8,
23 points, 23 gf, 17 ga, (2-0-4 home, 3-1-4 away)
Last 10 games: DDWWDWWDDW (5-0-5)
Last 10 at home: DWDW
Last 10 away: DWWWDD
Strength of Schedule: Softer than hard, and therefore
something to watch.
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
|
v MTL
|
a MIN
|
a DC
|
v CHI
|
v ORL
|
a MTL
|
a LAG
|
a CHI
|
a CLB
|
v CIN
|
|
0-0
|
3-3
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
2-0
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
5-2
|
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
R
|
Notes. They have trouble putting away games and, no,
kicking Cincinnati’s ass doesn’t change that; see home draws against Minnesota
and Orlando, and their last two road games. All the same, with all five wins
have come over their last 10 games and how strong they play on the road speaks
well to their chances in post-season.
Next Game: v Philly (6/29), v Seattle (7/3), v
Portland (7/6), @ Red Bulls (7/14), @ Colorado (7/20). How NYCFC manages to run
that absolute freakin’ GAUNTLET will give a pretty clear signal as to where
they are.
MID-TABLE PLUS
LOS ANGELES GALAXY, 9-6-1,
28 points, 22 gf, 19 ga, (6-3-0 home, 3-3-1 away)
Last 10 games: DWLLLLWWWL (4-5-1)
Last 10 at home: WWLLL
Last 10 away: DLLWW
Strength of Schedule: Another case where opposition and
results line up pretty cleanly.
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
|
v HOU
|
a MIN
|
v RSL
|
a RB
|
a CLB
|
v NYC
|
v COL
|
a ORL
|
a SKC
|
v NE
|
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
2-1
|
2-3
|
1-3
|
0-2
|
0-1
|
1-0
|
2-0
|
1-2
|
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
Notes. Zlatan will carry them, not least because he
has and he’s hell to defend, but injuries and a lack of support, plus a frankly
bizarre inversion of their home and away records, gives support to the idea
that they’re too messy to succeed in 2019…and that they put too many eggs in
the Zlatan basket. It raises some compelling questions about the designated
player in the current MLS era. And yet, they’re still second in the Western
Conference…
Next Games. @ Cincinnati (6/22), @ San Jose (6/29), v
TFC (7/4), v San Jose (7/12), v LAFC (7/19). Strong recent showings on the road
means they should get at least three points out of those first two. The
question is what they do after that to get the home record back to normal.
HOUSTON DYNAMO, 7-3-3,
24 points, 21 gf, 14 ga, (6-0-3 home, 1-3-0 away)
Last 10 games: WWLWWLDWLD (5-3-2)
Last 10 at home: WWWDWD
Last 10 away: WLLL
Strength of Schedule: Fairly soft, and with most games at
home. Keep an eye on this one.
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
|
a COL
|
v SJ
|
a LAG
|
v CLB
|
v HOU
|
a SEA
|
v POR
|
v DC
|
a MIN
|
v SKC
|
|
4-1
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
2-0
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
Notes. With their road reputation threatening to
reassert itself, every slip by the Dynamo at home feels more like a cat losing
one of its lives. It’s almost not worth trying to get a read on them until
their home/away numbers even out.
Next. @ Portland, 6/22, @ San Jose (6/26), @ New
England (6/29), v Red Bulls (7/3), @ Cincinnati (7/6). And they will, with a
vengeance. At the same time, at least three of their next road games will make
the transition gentle as possible. If they get anything than less than six
points out of that run, start selling your Houston stock.
PORTLAND TIMBERS, 4-7-2,
14 points, 19 gf, 26 ga, (0-1-0 home, 4-6-2 away)
Last 10 games: LLLWWWLDWL (4-5-1)
Last 10 at home: L
Last 10 away: LLLWWWLDW
Strength of Schedule: The earlier wins don’t look as good…but
the late results do.
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
|
a LAG
|
a SJ
|
a FCD
|
a CLB
|
a TFC
|
a RSL
|
a VAN
|
a HOU
|
a PHI
|
v LAF
|
|
1-2
|
0-3
|
2-1
|
3-1
|
2-1
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
2-3
|
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
Notes. They finished the long road trip strong and
gave LAFC literal hell in their home opener (see my extended notes)…but the
fact remains that Portland goes into the GCB (aka, "Gold Cup Break") at the foot of the Western
Conference. They have to start picking up steady Ws to climb out of the hole.
Next Games. v Houston (6/22), @ Montreal (6/26), v
Dallas (6/30), @NYCFC (7/7), v Colorado (7/13). I’m a little puzzled to see two
more road games in there (and what’s the rush with squeezing so much into
freakin’ June?), and any delay in the process of picking up those Ws will make
me nervous till it stops…
FC DALLAS, 6-6-4, 22
points, 22 gf, 22 ga, (4-1-3 home, 2-5-1 away)
Last 10 games: WWDLLLDLWD (3-4-3)
Last 10 at home: WDLDW
Last 10 away: WLLLD
Strength of Schedule: One of the toughest last 10 in MLS,
which MIGHT explain some things.
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
|
v POR
|
a ATL
|
v SJ
|
a HOU
|
v RB
|
a LAF
|
v LAF
|
a VAN
|
v SEA
|
a SJ
|
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
C
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Notes. The quiet middle child of MLS, average in
every way with over-achievers on one side and burn-outs on the other, they’re
still young and it’ll probably take either a couple upgrades or a couple more
years for youngsters like Pomykal to age into themselves. And they still need a
striker. It’s notable how hard the stumbled in that middle stretch above.
Next Games. v TFC (6/22), v Vancouver (6/26), @
Portland (6/30), v DC (7/4), @ Minnesota. If they’re going to get anywhere,
that stretch gives them a chance to start moving. I’d read anything less than
six points as a bad sign.
SEATTLE SOUNDERS, 7-4-5,
26 points, 26 gf, 21 ga, (6-0-2 home, 1-4-3 away)
Last 10 games: LDDDWWDLLL (2-4-4)
Last 10 at home: DDWW
Last 10 away: LDDLLL
Strength of Schedule: A tougher than average run, but they
have two TERRIBLE losses at the end.
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
|
a LAF
|
v SJ
|
v LAF
|
a MIN
|
v HOU
|
v ORL
|
a PHI
|
a SKC
|
a FCD
|
a MTL
|
|
1-4
|
2-2
|
1-1
|
1-1
|
1-0
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
2-3
|
1-2
|
1-2
|
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. Seattle has started slow over the past few
years before running everyone over the rest of the season. That might not hold
in the post-Chad Marshall era. Their defense has carried them through scoring
droughts and, when that dries up, you get the kind of bona fide slow-down shown
above. And do note where all those losses happened...
Next Games. v Vancouver (6/29), @ NYCFC (7/3), @
Columbus (7/6), @ Atlanta (7/14), v Portland (7/27). With two really tough road
games in that mix, those home games in their next five grow a little taller.
Anything less than six points should catch attention.
REAL SALT LAKE, 6-8-1,
19 points, 21 gf, 27 ga, (4-2-0 home, 2-6-1 away)
Last 10 games: LWWLLWWWLL (5-5-0)
Last 10 at home: WLWW
Last 10 away: LWLWLL
Strength of Schedule: Another case where strength of
schedule thickens the plot…
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
|
a SEA
|
v ORL
|
a CIN
|
a LAG
|
v POR
|
a COL
|
v TFC
|
v ATL
|
a MTL
|
a NYR
|
|
0-1
|
2-1
|
3-0
|
1-2
|
1-2
|
3-2
|
3-0
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
0-4
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
Notes. They have real weapons and real quality, they
always fight, and they can beat terrible teams on the road, but all signs point
to RSL riding the playoff line for the rest of 2019. Their defense is pretty
clearly their undoing.
Next Games: @ Chicago (6/22), v SKC (6/29), v
Columbus (7/3), @ San Jose (7/6), v Philadelphia (7/13). By the current math,
that’s two soft teams at home, and a couple doable games on the road. RSL can
re-write the script during a stretch like that…and a good team picks up the
majority of points during that stretch.
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS,
4-6-6, 18 points, 17 gf, 20 ga, (3-3-3 home, 1-3-3 away)
Last 10 games: WLDWWLDDWD (4-2-4)
Last 10 at home: WDWLWD
Last 10 away: LWDD
Strength of Schedule: They have some good results in there –
if you trust my math, they’re 3-1-0 against “M+” teams.
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
|
v LAF
|
a ORL
|
v PHI
|
a COL
|
v POR
|
v ATL
|
a SKC
|
a NYR
|
v FCD
|
v TFC
|
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
|
C
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
Notes. Even with the best left back in MLS (Ali
Adnan), they never quite convince me, even when they win. They’ve become a
devilish outing for opposing teams, but they still feel a little too light in
the roster to go far. They could go places with an addition or two.
Next Games. v Colorado (6/22), @ Dallas (6/26), @
Seattle (6/29), @ LAFC (7/6), v SKC (7/13). Unless they do some real effective
training during the GCB, they’ll be lucky to get six points out of those next
five games.
ORLANDO CITY SC, 5-7-3,
18 points, 22 gf, 21 ga, (3-4-1 home, 2-3-2 away)
Last 10 games: WLWDLLLWLW (4-5-1)
Last 10 at home: WWLWL
Last 10 away: LDLLW
Strength of Schedule: Another team more or less finding its
level in real-time.
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
|
v COL
|
a RSL
|
v VAN
|
a NYC
|
v TFC
|
a ATL
|
a SEA
|
v CIN
|
v LAG
|
a MTL
|
|
4-3
|
1-2
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
5-1
|
0-1
|
3-0
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. They’re still good for the odd, absolutely
terrible run of results (see above), but they’re also not a team anyone wants
to mess with. They’re tough, they play with pride and they have enough weapons
to be dangerous (e.g., Nani, Ruan, and, when he’s up for it, Dwyer). Just to
note it, I wonder what kind of value they could get for Sacha Kljestan. The
current arrangement feels lose/lose for team and player.
Next Games. @ DC (6/26), @ Columbus (6/29), v Philadelphia
(7/3), @ Philadelphia (7/6), v Columbus (7/13). Ah, look. Matching Eastern
Conference six-pointers. Given everything around Columbus, they have to win at
least one of those; it’s what they get out of the rest you watch for.
CHICAGO FIRE, 4-6-6,
18 points, 24 gf, 23 ga, (4-1-3 home, 0-5-3 away)
Last 10 games: WLLDWWLDDL (3-4-3)
Last 10 at home: WWWD
Last 10 away: LLDLDL
Strength of Schedule: Another tough schedule, and the same
set of result as FC Dallas. Food for thought.
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
L
|
|
v COL
|
a NYC
|
a MTL
|
a LAF
|
v NE
|
v MIN
|
a SJ
|
v NYC
|
a DC
|
a ATL
|
|
4-1
|
0-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
5-0
|
2-0
|
1-4
|
1-1
|
3-3
|
0-2
|
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
Notes. I keep seeing people hype the Fire from an xG
stat angle, and this is why I find the blunt reality of following results so
useful. Chicago has yet to win on the road, and they’re not winning enough
generally. They have better parts than they do a team, but those parts still
feel some combination of insufficient (e.g., trigger-happy Katai) or misplaced
(Schweinsteiger).
Next Games. v RSL (6/22), @ Red Bulls (6/29), v
Atlanta (7/3), @ SKC (7/6), v Cincinnati (7/13). They need six points minimum
out of that (RSL and Cincy); the question is what they get above it. It’s not
the hype that bugs me; it’s the lack of support for it.
MID-TABLE MINUS
COLORADO RAPIDS, 4-9-3,
15 points, 25 gf, 34 ga, (3-4-2 home, 1-5-1 away)
Last 10 games: LLLLLLWWDWW (4-5-1)
Last 10 at home: LLLWWW
Last 10 away: LLWD
Strength of Schedule: Take away the road win in LA, and this
process puts a different shine on their recent results. Sure, they’re winning,
but who are they beating?
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
|
v DC
|
a CHI
|
a ATL
|
v VAN
|
v RSL
|
a LAG
|
v CLB
|
a PHI
|
v CIN
|
v MIN
|
|
2-3
|
4-1
|
0-1
|
2-3
|
2-3
|
1-0
|
3-2
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
Notes. There’s no getting around it: they’ve played
themselves into mid-table status in just five games – and there’s a lot of
wrinkles in this too. Better still, it goes both ways – e.g., how much did
losing Benny Feilhaber and gaining Conor Casey as an interim coach help them?
Next Game: @ Vancouver (6/22), v LAFC (6/28), v New
England (7/4), @ Portland (7/14), v NYCFC (7/20). In light of their recent
results, all bets are kinda sort off with regard to what happens when the
league starts up again. They’re on a genuinely credible run.
MINNESOTA UNITED FC,
6-7-3, 21 points, 23 gf, 25 ga, (3-1-3 home, 3-6-0 away)
Last 10 games: LDWDLWWLLL (3-5-2)
Last 10 at home: DWDWWL
Last 10 away: LLLL
Strength of Schedule: Their recent results suddenly look
less bleak all of the sudden.
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
|
a TFC
|
v LAG
|
v DC
|
v SEA
|
a CHI
|
v CLB
|
v HOU
|
a ATL
|
v PHI
|
a COL
|
|
3-4
|
0-0
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
0-2
|
1-0
|
1-0
|
0-3
|
2-3
|
0-1
|
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
Notes. The early-season optimism has to have taken a
hit by now. On a deeper level, I see real significance to them beating teams
like Columbus and Houston at home (and even DC), while losing to Philly:
they’re a good home team, but they’re not going to beat the better teams even
with home-field advantage. Also, their early returns on road games have
evaporated…
Next Games. v Cincinnati (6/29), v San Jose (7/3), @
Montreal (7/6), v Dallas (7/13), v RSL (7/20). Every one of those home games is
a must-win – the first with bells on. Dallas will be the hardest test, but I’ll
be giving anything south of 8 points from that run a serious side-eye.
DC UNITED, 7-4-6, 27
points, 23 gf, 18 ga, (4-2-3 home, 3-2-3 away)
Last 10 games: LWLWWDLDDD (3-3-4)
Last 10 at home: LWWDD
Last 10 away: WLDLD
Strength of Schedule: The correlation between wins and weak
opponents jumps out...
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
D
|
|
v NYC
|
a CLB
|
a MIN
|
v CLB
|
v SKC
|
a TFC
|
a HOU
|
a NE
|
v CHI
|
v SJ
|
|
0-2
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
0-0
|
1-2
|
1-1
|
3-3
|
1-1
|
|
C
|
R
|
R
|
R
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. Having the grid as a visual really draws out
DC’s malaise; it also begs the question of whether Columbus is the only team
they can beat. Worse, it seems like they can’t get things all the way right in
any given area.
Next Game: v Orlando (6/26), v TFC (6/29), @ Dallas
(7/4), v Red Bulls (7/7), @ Seattle (7/14). It’s what they do over those first
two games that you want to watch – and neither are gimmes. If they look like
the last two games, DC is officially struggling.
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES,
5-6-4, 19 points, 23 gf, 27 ga, (4-3-1 home, 1-3-3 away)
Last 10 games: LWDDWLWWDD (4-2-4)
Last 10 at home: WWWD
Last 10 away: LDDLWD
Strength of Schedule: A team very much playing to its
real-world level.
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
|
a HOU
|
v SKC
|
a SEA
|
a FCD
|
v CIN
|
a NE
|
v CHI
|
a TFC
|
a DC
|
v FCD
|
|
1-2
|
4-1
|
2-2
|
0-0
|
1-0
|
1-3
|
4-1
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. They follow the RSL template to some extent,
in that they can beat anyone and Chris Wondolowski can’t stop scoring, but
there’s still a whiff of Daniel Vega’s Mistake about them. Despite a roster
that no one sees running for glory, they make their own by fighting like hell
and playing with real pride.
Next Games: v Houston (6/26), v LA Galaxy (6/29), @
Minnesota (7/3), v RSL (7/6), @ LA Galaxy (7/13). Even as I expect them to
continue to muddle through, I want to see what they do with those five games.
Anything north of seven points – which feels doable - would be solid and keep
them live…for a while.
MONTREAL IMPACT, 8-7-3,
27 points, 21 gf, 28 ga, (4-2-1 home, 4-5-2 away)
Last 10 games: WWLWLDLWLW (5-4-1)
Last 10 at home: WLDWLW
Last 10 away: WWL
Strength of Schedule: Not quite the opposite of opponents
and results lining up, but not far off either.
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
|
a NE
|
v CHI
|
v NYC
|
a RB
|
a CIN
|
v NE
|
a LAF
|
v RSL
|
v ORL
|
v SEA
|
|
3-0
|
1-0
|
2-0
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
0-0
|
2-4
|
2-1
|
0-3
|
2-1
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. I’d say that looking at the last eight games
from the 10 above tells you everything you need to know about L’Impact. Hell,
the results against RSL and Orlando might be sufficient. Erratic as hell.
They’ll probably get better once Piatti rounds into form, so clearly not a team
to write off.
Next Games. v Portland (6/26), @ Atlanta (6/29), v
Minnesota (7/6), v TFC (7/13), @ Columbus (7/20). God knows what they get out
of that, but I’m putting my marker down on at least six points. Because
Montreal.
NEW ENGLAND REVS, 4-8-4,
16 points, 17 gf, 33 ga, (3-4-1 home, 1-4-3 away)
Last 10 games: LWLDLLWDDW (3-4-3)
Last 10 at home: LWLWD
Last 10 away: DLLDW
Strength of Schedule: Impressive as the turn-around has
been, they should’ve done better by my math.
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
|
v ATL
|
v NYR
|
v MTL
|
a SKC
|
a PHI
|
a CHI
|
v SJ
|
a MTL
|
v DC
|
a LAG
|
|
0-2
|
1-0
|
0-3-
|
4-4
|
1-6
|
0-5
|
3-1
|
0-0
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
R
|
C
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. Another coaching
change, another new lease on life for every team in the league but FC Cincy.
Given that he’s had only one game in charge, more credit for the improvement
goes to getting rid of Brad Friedel than hiring Bruce Arena. The trick with the
Revs, though, is that the talent was always there – at least as much as teams
like RSL and San Jose.
Next Games. v Philadelphia (6/26), v Houston (6/29),
@ Colorado (7/4), @ DC (7/12), v Vancouver (7/17). Even with a recovery, that’s
a tough run of games. If they can get that home record headed in the right
direction, New England could make some noise this season.
ROAD-KILL
SPORTING KC, 3-5-7, 16
points, 26 gf, 27 ga, (3-2-3 home, 0-3-4 away)
Last 10 games: DLDLLDWLWD (2-4-4)
Last 10 at home: DDLDWL
Last 10 away: LLDD
Strength of Schedule: Another case where the
results/opponent tea leaves spell doom.
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
|
v NYR
|
a SJ
|
v NE
|
v ATL
|
a DC
|
v VAN
|
v SEA
|
v LAG
|
a HOU
|
a TFC
|
|
2-2
|
1-4
|
4-4
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
Notes. SKC has to go down as one of the biggest
shocks of 2019. They rolled into the season looking like one of the most
talented and, crucially, deepest teams in MLS. As it turns out, just like a
person, a soccer team can’t function without a spine: injuries to Roger
Espinoza hurt them, and Matt Besler’s injury has killed them.
Next Games. @ Columbus (6/23), @ RSL (6/29), v LAFC
(7/3), v Chicago (7/3), @ Vancouver (7/13). I’d say they need three wins out of
that stretch if they want to have any hope of turning around 2019.
TORONTO FC, 5-6-4, 19
points, 26 gf, 25 ga, (3-3-3 home, 2-3-1 away)
Last 10 games: WLWLLDLLDD (2-5-3)
Last 10 at home: WLLDL
Last 10 away: LWLLD
Strength of Schedule: The last five games show how bad
Toronto really has been.
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
|
v MIN
|
v POR
|
a ORL
|
a ATL
|
v PHI
|
v DC
|
a RSL
|
v SJ
|
a VAN
|
v SKC
|
|
4-3
|
1-2
|
2-0
|
0-2
|
1-2
|
0-0
|
0-3
|
1-2
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
Notes. With a glorious start as dead as it gets, any
talk of this team as some kind of sleeping giant should fall silent by now. For
all his talent, Pozuelo hasn’t paid off enough to lift them and they don’t have
a safe place for results – one of your surer signals for a struggling team.
Next Games. @ Dallas (6/22), v Atlanta (6/26), @ DC
(6/29), @ LA Galaxy (7/4), @ Montreal (7/13). If they’re gonna flip the script,
they need to start doing it now. And against that brutal layout.
COLUMBUS CREW SC, 5-9-2,
17 points, 16 gf, 24 ga, (4-3-2 home, 1-6-0 away)
Last 10 games: LLLLLWLLLD (1-8-1)
Last 10 at home: LLWLD
Last 10 away: LLLLL
Strength of Schedule: They get some comfort from the quality
of opposition in their last five, but not nearly enough.
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
|
a MTL
|
v POR
|
v DC
|
a HOU
|
a DC
|
v LAG
|
v LAF
|
a MIN
|
a COL
|
v NYC
|
|
0-1
|
1-3
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
3-1
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
2-3
|
2-2
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
C
|
Notes. They get good a result in something like one
game out of five – hardly a recipe for success. Moreover, their season so far
plays to the heart of what makes a bad team in the Eastern Conference: a crappy
attack. It hardly helps that they lost Higuain…though it’s possible that Pedro
Santos and David Guzman can cover for that (just don’t ask Guzman to defend).
Next Games. v SKC (6/23), v Orlando (6/29), @ RSL
(7/3), v Seattle (7/6), @ Orlando (7/13). They could have an easier run, but –
and I mean no offense to Orlando – if they can’t get four points out of those
two games, AND they can’t make up the points elsewhere, this team drops to pay
no mind.
FC CINCINNATI, 3-11-2,
11 points, 14 gf, 33 ga, (2-3-1 home, 1-8-1 away)
Last 10 games: LLLLLWLLLL (1-9-0)
Last 10 at home: LWLL
Last 10 away: LLLLLL
Strength of Schedule: Yeah, they’re dying, but they’ve also
played a tough schedule lately.
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
|
a LAF
|
v RSL
|
a NYR
|
a PHI
|
a SJ
|
v MTL
|
a ORL
|
v NYR
|
a COL
|
a NYC
|
|
0-2
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
0-1
|
2-1
|
1-5
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
2-5
|
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
Notes. Appropriately, FC Cincy serves as a mirror
image for LAFC: when you allow (something like) three times as many goals per
game than you score, the bottom of the table becomes your natural habitat. Between
a poorly constructed roster and a misfiring DP, things like profoundly bleak
for Cincinnati this season.
Next Games. v LA Galaxy (6/22), @ Minnesota (6/29), v
Houston (7/6), @ Chicago (7/13), v DC (7/18). They need to do anything but what
they’ve done recently. Hosting DC looks like their best opportunity to me…just
repeat that in your head a few times and you’ll get a sense of the situation…
All right, that’s everything. This feature will return when
league play does...after the first group stage game of the Gold Cup, which,
again, raises questions of competence from those in charge.
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