FC Cincy Preview: at Atlanta United FC, Unlikely Does Not = Impossible

But, if Atlanta keeps handing out giant checks...

It pains me to lead with this, but I don’t think I’ve spent a full, uninterrupted 90 minutes looking at Atlanta United FC this season. I have, however, kept an eye on their doings, heard some stuff about Josef Martinez not looking like himself before he checked out for six weeks to get some free-floating bone out of his body and recovery from the surgery. I’ve floated the idea that they got “their mojo” back in a Week 3 recap I regret and/or still think I’m paying for in lost interest and, despite arguing they mostly survived their home draw to Club du Foot Montreal in my Week 4 recap, and, against the general tenor of what little commentary I read, I still suspect that Atlanta will be playoff competitive in 2022…

…yes, even after losing to Charlotte just last week. And yet I still end at the same thought: if Atlanta isn’t the most inscrutable team in MLS’s young 2022 season, they aren’t far off. Games that look like accomplishments - e.g., their confident win over Sporting Kansas City in Week 1, or even Week 5’s road win at DC United - look different in context (e.g., SKC’s slow start and just…DC in 2022). They’re better at home - seven points from nine on offer - but they still don’t present as a GOOD team, not according to their early record. Had they won at Charlotte - and, yeah, losing on an olimpico is the soccer equivalent of getting real money off a scratch-it, but they also failed to score themselves - sticking with the whole “mojo” theory wouldn’t feel like such a stretch. But they did lose…

As such, FC Cincinnati will walk into a minor mystery Saturday afternoon (evening, Eastern Standard, right around dinner time). By one of the broadest measures available - goals scored and allowed - Atlanta comes in on the right side of middling in the attack (nine goals scored) and the wrong side of the same in defense (again, nine goals), but the word “middling” does the most work in that thought. Moreover, and as much as the condensed game of the Montreal game made me question the defense, that’s a respectable home record. More to the point, I wouldn’t expect any neutral observer to look to FC Cincy to put a dent in that adjective…

…but it wouldn’t surprise me to see them steal this one. And let me make one thing perfectly clear before continuing: I’ll feel all right about anything better than Cincy losing in a blow-out, aka, the psychological benefits of playing as the underdog. Every win is a tablespoon of gravy, in my mind, and a road draw isn’t much different - especially when punching up nails a (for now) proximate rival.

Los Angeles FC 4-2 Portland Timbers: Half-Empty Glasses and the State of the Auditions

Are we sad glass?!

“Nobody thought we’d have five goals in this half, but we do!”
- Max Bretos, at the end of the first half

Why wouldn’t people expect five goals? The Portland Timbers came into the game having given up 11 goals over their past four games; add the four goals they, by and large, handed Los Angeles FC in last night’s 4-2 loss, and the Timbers now average three goals against per game. Fun fact, LAFC let in three goals in three of their past five games (they did better against the San Jose Earthquakes, and now the Timbers). Fans should have expected goals, in other words, because both these teams have taken to bleeding them.

Concerns about the Timbers’ defense, which has officially reached “holy shit” levels of concern, have merged into worries about the team's future. That doesn’t make it unreasonable, however, to ask what the average Timbers fans expected out of a game with two vertebrae removed from Portland’s defensive scheme (e.g., Larrys Mabiala and Diego Chara) and one arm tied behind its back in the attack (aka, the wounded Sebastian Blanco). I can’t account for what caused it - extreme recency bias (aka, the win over Seattle)? a perfect balance and quantity of chemical encouragement? a wildly burning lust for any positive sensation? - but I somehow went into the game thinking that things would work out. And, for as long as Portland contained everything LAFC tried to do, and after they pulled them apart and ran riot through the openings for a beautiful and impressive team goal, the delusion held up very nicely, thanks!

Reality started knocking rather loudly, however, and shortly after the hydration break. I saw some chatter during the game about that stalling the Timbers’ momentum, but it seems just as likely that LAFC made some adjustments I didn’t notice (see, “balance and quantity of chemical encouragement”). Their first goal didn’t bother me overly - a set-piece, a lost mark, etc. - but, when LAFC returned the “pull ‘em apart and run riot” favor for the go-ahead goal, and then Portland's defenders shared a collective, simultaneous snooze on another set-piece that, frankly, sucked, the alarms that had been blaring before the win over Seattle blared anew. Fortunately, just when you started to wonder how bad things could get, Jeremy Ebobisse lobbed Jorge Villafana’s pin-point cross over LAFC ‘keeper Pablo Sisniega on the last play of the first half.

Portland Timbers Get Too Damn Drunk Before the Party. Also, the Party (aka, The MLS Postseason Hurrah!)

GUYS! There are better uses for this!

I’m not going to dwell too much on the specifics of the Portland Timbers 4-(WHAT?!)-1 loss to the Vancouver Whitecaps, not least because it doesn’t matter just now. The only thought I really have is, the team needed this. The fan-base might have needed it even more. The Timbers community, as a whole, spent the second half of summer 2016 waiting on a turn-around in the team’s fortunes. Not pining for, but waiting for it – as in, expecting it, knowing it would come. I know this is how fans talk, but still, it didn’t come. Plainly.

Overwhelmed; supine; the sick, limping lamb laying down with an exceedingly hungry, possibly scientifically-bred wolf: quality of phrasing notwithstanding, they all work. No Portland Timber player really shined yesterday, the (arguably) second unquestionably decisive game of the season (the midweek hairball against Deportivo Saprissa being the only truly clear first), and when you can’t show up for games like that, well, things like missing the playoffs happen. Empty-handed seasons happen. If I had to name anyone, I’d go with Darren Mattocks and Jermaine Taylor, each role players for the team, and not stars, but each player’s game let him down in some way (long touches and the usual lack of…finesse, respectively). When the results continued souring down the stretch, the refrain from Timbers Brass spoke to what this team can do when their backs hit the wall, so I guess the question is, their backs are against the wall now, so…when’s that change kick in?

That’s the Timbers 2016 in a nutshell – i.e., the persistence of hope against all available evidence. I haven’t yet reviewed my work for this past season – that’s part of the research of The Big Post-Mortem – but I’ll pick through every (agonizing, misguided) thing I wrote this year soon enough. The dominant idea of the Timbers, though, bought into the Caleb Porter October Miracle, the idea that Ol’ Caleb gets ‘em up for the end of the season, every season. Except this year. That theory made some sense (I checked; see? see? see?), but it omitted a major reality from that myth’s defining year, 2015: Portland turned things around then because they could defend. The Timbers had at least one end of the field figured out in 2015, something that showed not just in their defensive stats, but also in road wins. (7-8-2?! Auggghhh! My heart!)

What changed between this year and last goes deeper than a change in personnel. Well, maybe. It might be closer to argue that the issues with personnel, and even inj…fuck it. Every time I try heading down that road, I get nothing. My point is, it shouldn’t have mattered as much as it did. Wait, no. Should it have mattered as much as it did? Based on Portland’s now complete 2016, and off the top of my head, post-mortem pending, I see three big tasks ahead for the Timbers:

Toronto FC v. Portland Timbers: A Clash of Fine China

Next-level Red Rover....

To shorten these preview posts a bit, I’m going listicle on the Portland Timbers’ previews and, when looking ahead to other games, I’ll stick to talking up (or down) only those with a good hook/angle. And, yes, this Wednesday game business is driving me goddamn nuts, because Sporting Kansas City v. New England Revolution? That there was a quality match-up, friends. It looked just as good on the menu as it did when it arrived on the table. (A missed penalty, a dubious penalty, big soccer players making big soccer plays; had it all, I tell ya!)

On to the main attraction: Toronto FC v. Portland Timbers. First, let’s set the stage...

Toronto FC. The buzz-boys of 2015. Major League Soccer’s big spenders. As Twitter announced yesterday, they spent over three times what the Timbers did to create their roster (just north of $20 million versus just short of $6 million). And what has all that scratch bought them? Three points fewer than Portland – though they can go even on points by winning this weekend and a keep a game in hand to boot.

Will they do it? The trends read better than the results, at least some of them. TFC started 2015 on a seven-game road-trip. Said trip started great and ended well, but a chasm yawned between in the form of five straight losses that surely reminded every Torontonian of a deeply-cursed former life (shudder to think of the atrocities committed by the former selves of every player who has ever pulled TFC’s red jersey over his shoulder). But two wins in their final road games (cough, Orlando, cough, in the bad days, cough, cough, Philly!) sent TFC rolling back to an embiggened BMO Field confident and hungry. The schedule handed TFC an opponent that looked entirely beatable, too, in the Houston Dynamo. A clear day broke. Toronto fans provided the theater, chanting and marching their way to the field. Promise swelled like the biggest, ripest fruit the club had ever seen...only to burst into a rancid puddle when Houston cut into the skin.

Toronto didn’t do so great against the New England Revolution last weekend, either; most reports I read said the draw flattered them, so there’s that, too. So, will Toronto make that big, beautiful stadium bounce when the Timbers come to town?

Portland Timbers v. Vancouver Whitecaps, Plus MLS Week 8 Previews

A fate to be avoided....

All the best stuff happens in Major League Soccer’s Eastern Conference for Week 9: DC United hosting Columbus Crew SC; New England Revolution v. New York Red Bulls; hell, even Philadelphia Union v. Toronto FC, if only to see if either the Union can sink deeper than the ocean floor, or Toronto can’t revive any team’s dreams of a better season.

I’ll get into all that below (briefly*), but I have to start with my preview for the game that hits closest to me.

(* I’m sure I’m not the only person who reads some of what I post here and thinks, "Yes, yes, you’re very clever. Please kindly get on with it.")

Portland Timbers v. Vancouver Whitecaps! Part Dos!

I somehow got it in my head that the Timbers had its best outing of the season the last time they played Vancouver. A couple errors in thought, there: 1) the win over FC Dallas – i.e. the hopeful highlight of this worrisome 2015 – came the weekend after; and 2) it turns out I crapped all over everything and everyone except Nat Borchers and Liam Ridgewell up to and until they 70th minute. It appears Portland turned it around after.

Related note: my gods, I am a bitchy, bitchy man. Good thing I don’t coach the team...

At any rate, my review of Portland's loss to Vancouver makes for interesting reading – especially in light of the somewhat trying times between here and there. First, and I note this fully aware that he has generated a lot of what offense the Timbers have managed, I stand by comments on Darlington Nagbe (e.g. the stuff about how long he keeps the ball and why he should shake that up – and more than a little; see second talking point). Second, and most painfully and obviously, mind the persistent, recurrent defensive gaffes; further, note that if it’s not Borchers and Ridgewell, it’s Kwarasey (see; MLS Week 8, e.g. "The Playful Kitten Goal"). La plus ca change, etc.

This week, however, something will change. Timbers fans know neither when, nor for how long, but the Timbers brass have been talking up Diego Valeri's return for this Saturday's game. This is, unequivocally, good news. No one player has made Portland's attack better, or more coherent, than Valeri over the past couple seasons. And yet, it's very, very wise to temper near-term expectations. Not that I’m speaking from actual knowledge, but I don’t think he’ll start, or even go 60 minutes; moreover, I wouldn't want Valeri out there for all that long. Ease the man in, and for the love of Christ do absolutely nothing that even remotely risks aggravating his injury. Ahem. All I want just a taste of Diego, a little early-season, one-nibble appetizer that will assure me that I’ll enjoy, what will be, a five-course goddamn extravaganza served up by Chef Valeri for the rest of the goddamn season.

As such, the rest of this preview (not much to go; stay with me!) will assume no, or minimal Valeri. On to some bullet points:

1) How I Want The Timbers to Line Up

And, wow, I LITERALLY just changed my mind on this. I was about to advocate for the 4-4-2 with an eye to getting the Timbers' overall line of engagement higher up the field. Given that the 'Caps attack best when they attack in transition, this feels like the opposite of what Portland should do. To throw something out there, I believe that Portland's 4-2-3-1 is a 4-5-PR-Stunt-1 – that’s to say, I think the club lays that out to put an attacking line-up on paper, while the team functions in a fairly defensive shape. I’m OK with this. Albeit with a caveat...

2) What (Former) Captain Jack Said

"The reality is our main role is on the defensive side."

That comment came up in comments Jack Jewsbury made about Valeri's impending return. And there's something a little disturbing in it. Last weekend, especially, Portland punched even with an essentially punch-less Seattle Sounders squad; I read this as a failure to commit numbers forward. Even if you don't accept that particular premise, please assume it in service of the following point: if Portland wants to win – and this is until Valeri’s return – the team needs to send either FC Jack (new nickname for Jewsbury) or Diego Chara (nickname pending) forward with some regularity. This isn’t an easy call, by any means, because I feel both players suffer their own limitations, but I’d make it FC Jack; Chara covers ground and breaks up play more effectively, and I think his passing is safe to the point of being obvious. Bottom line, though: Portland needs another player closer to the attack and more often. Diego will provide this soon, but the club needs something in the now.

3) Scouting Vancouver

When I think of the 'Caps in the context of them facing Vancouver, one name sticks with me: Octavio Rivero. Yeah, his goals have dried up a little since his early-season days of stealing the 'Caps three points on the weekly, but his upside, and the challenge he poses, becomes immediately clear if you watch even what he did in a wild effort against DC United last weekend. In a word, the man is relentless. He's mobile to boot – which gets at the clammy, arrhythmically-beating heart of the matter. If there's a big weakness among all of Portland's defenders, it's tracking players. A slippery shit like Rivero requires a lot of attention. Worse, he's got a cast of great-to-rockstar midfielders feeding him. Key on him too much, another Canadian (actual, or honorary/temporary) gets free; go back to them, and suddenly you’ve lost Rivero again.

The second point is this: Vancouver's defense has exactly two weaknesses: Pa Modou Kah and Kendall Waston's temper. Both outside backs are really, really good – even their depth is sound. Basically, scoring on the 'Caps will be hard. Matias Laba being out does hurt them, but Gershon Koffie is a solid back-up. And Russell Teibert's a straight-up pest.

Bottom Line

I feel that patience is key. If the Timbers have to chase this game, it's going to be three-legged-race complicated. The advice I have reads like so: start in an honest 5-4-1 to feel out the game, but definitely shift that thing to that 4-2-3-1 before too much of the 90 is gone.

I have some faith in this one. Honest.

OK, on to the rest of the mess.

Houston Dynamo v. FC Dallas

I feel goals in this one. Houston ships 'em, Dallas scores 'em. But it's April/May, Dallas' Season of Suck. Plus, there's a cannon involved! Eeeeeee!

Real Salt Lake v. San Jose Earthquakes

The equation is a little ugly on this one: RSL struggles to score, but defend pretty well; same goes for San Jose (from what I gather: all I know for sure is that I’m honoring my personal pledge to sit through the full 90 of a San Jose game for the first time this season).

Philadelphia Union v. Toronto FC

Philly's desperate energy meets Toronto's capacity to genuinely ball when they want to...and to cough up back-breaking goals: throw this one in a box, shake it up, and dump the contents on the ground. More interesting than most games this weekend, if you ask me. If I'm the Union, I am absolutely keying on Nick Hagglund.

DC United v. Columbus Crew SC

Cold, calculating discipline (DC) against (intended) artistry (Columbus). Kei Kamara ability to win just about everything passed/lofted toward him helps even out the physicality a little, along with the Crew’s back of feisty Argentines. DC doesn't need the ball to beat anybody. Which makes them a little maddening.

New England Revolution v. New York Red Bulls

The next feature in what promises to be a fun 'n’' full weekend (exception: DC v. Columbus; and Portland v. Vancouver, probably; or if only for the locals). The thing to watch here: if Red Bull can't get their infamous/occasional roll-‘em-like-drunks press rolling, New England's going to take full measure of their defense. In other words, this sucker could get awfully revealing...

Los Angeles Galaxy v. Colorado Rapids

One injury-ravaged squad meets another injury-ravaged squad. Add heavy legs for the Rapids and a home game for the Galaxy and this one appears pretty straightforward: three points for LA, only without the valiant effort. I'm expecting 1-0. Sadly, there will be no grudge match for Marcelo Sarvas (not that he’s ever so much as hinted at that mind-set).

Sporting Kansas City v. Chicago Fire

Another one with promise. If you have not watched David Accam play for Chicago, do yourself a favor and watch David Accam play for Chicago. I'm guessing (and I totally mean that) that KC lives and dies in this one according to how well they boss the midfield. And I mean that in the negative sense. If they can keep Chicago in front of them, I think they get this one.

New York City FC v. Seattle Sounders

I simply cannot imagine this will go well for NYCFC...

All right. That's the weekend ahead. Savor this one, people. Then again, this is from the same guy who thought Week 8 would suck.