MLS Weakly 01 16 2021: Player Moves, a SuperDraft, Negotiations & No Firm Schedule

A late-winter/spring of cowboy metaphors...

The phrase “silly season” has made its annual return to the soccer lexicon, but the 2021 North American domestic season doubles down on the term. At time of speculating, nobody knows when the 2021 season will start or what it’ll look like; everyone’s counting on a vaccine to make the whole thing possible, as the fucking moronic distribution of that same vaccine races against one or more new and improved strain of COVID-19 in real-time. Also playing for Team COVID: the naked and belligerent unwillingness among tens of millions of Americans to accept reality and take even baby steps to aid and comfort other Americans.

So, this one’s less a “silly season” than a “really fucking stupid with heaping tablespoons of delusion season," which is considerably harder to navigate and/or understand.

On the other hand, that same fucking stubborn stupidity shares a distant relation to a more positive human trait - hope - and so all concerned will prepare for a 2021 season that will kick off ____________, 2021 and end ____________, 2021 (probably) skipping over one obstacle after another outbreak and so on until The Last Team Standing lifts MLS Cup 2021.

 A whiff of parody will follow these posts for the foreseeable future, and mostly because there’s nothing tangible to write about. Tucked into the notes on the negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA; more later) between MLS ownership and the MLS Players’ Association (MLSPA) is the cold, hard fact that no one involved is even talking about opening preseason training, never mind planning for it, which means no preseason games to write about. People have started to talk about whether or not one MLS team or another (e.g., the Portland Timbers) have a shot in 2021’s CONCACAF Champions’ League (CCL), but that competition doesn’t have a start date either, so…

Even qualifying for U-23 soccer tournament in the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo remains “slated to unfold” by the end of March, though there will be friendlies for both the U.S. Men’s National Team (USMNT) and the U.S. Women’s National Team (USWNT) in January, and the USWNT has a whole damn mini-tournament in the second half of February. So, yeah, there is soccer on the horizon, if of a sort not really connected to anything but a vague, hopeful, post-pandemic future…

…going the other way, I’m seeing things that suggest March will be a real shit-show, at least unless “Uncle Joe” Biden (c’mon; have fun with it) really delivers on delivering the vaccine. In other words, fans of American soccer have several months of “soccer porn” ahead - i.e., a period of talking about things preparatory to the real world events that measure success and failure, aka, the baby-making, aka, actual games where the results count toward a final deciding event in a clear and definite future. Speaking of shit-shows…

Gimme a “C,” Gimme a “B,” Gimme an “A”! Now, Give the Players Fucking Money…
During the past week, the MLSPA responded ($ site)…sort of to the league’s basic offer (same $ site) for a renegotiated CBA - which, in broad strokes traded no pay cuts for 2021 in exchange for extended the terms of an updated CBA two years into the future, e.g., to 2027. So, basically, keeping money now while potentially/almost certainly forgoing more money later - especially with two likely revenue bumps lurking in the future, e.g., “MLS’s next broadcast deal, which will be signed after the 2022 season, and seeing the bounce associated with the 2026 World Cup.” The sense the league is rushing the players by calling January 28 a deadline for bargaining introduces another source of tension among players - especially considering they took a hit in pay (5% less), but also something at least I missed on the first pass, “the elimination of a large chunk of player bonuses.”

Given all that, I get the players’ frustration with the league’s offer. That said, two sentences jumped out in The Athletic’s write-up on the MLSPA’s response to the owners offer. First, this:

“[MLSPA executive director Bob] Foose acknowledged that neither the MLSPA nor the league could project with any certainty the magnitude of COVID-19-caused losses in 2021. He did say that the union is confident that those losses will be less than what they were in 2020.”

I’d only call the “confidence” in that sentence is misplaced; I don't think anyone should assume anything about 2021 with confidence. The bigger point was this one - and, again, this is Foose talking:

“We had that negotiation last summer. The players have taken and continue to take a significant financial hit that is equal to a significant portion of those losses. So what is the negotiation about? It’s simple: It’s about 2021 and about 2021 only.”

Setting aside the question of whether that argument bears any relation to reality - I don’t think the players gain by confining the negotiations to 2021 only - I see the seeds of a trade-off in talking about a shorter time-line for whatever agreement players and management reach under the weight of COVID. Maybe a better answer is trading more near-term pain - e.g., a salary freeze - for letting the current CBA expire sooner. Maybe the players can’t afford to give up enough to convince the league to negotiate a new CBA before they negotiate the next TV deal, but maybe they can convince them to renegotiate a new CBA between the signing of the TV deal and the bump they expect to get out of the 2026 World Cup. The MLSPA knows better than I do what they can afford to give up, so I’ll leave that to them, but letting the league get away with two potential/probable revenue bumps in exchange for standing pat on wages today and deferring future earnings sounds something like “ain’t right” now that I’m looking a little closer.

For the rest of this post, and continuing into future ones, the plan is to talk about the two teams I follow - the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati - and then to wrap up MLS-wide news and generally in descending order of importance. Let’s get rolling…

Portland Timbers Update
A couple reported courtships percolated into Timbers news, one of them already shot down - the one involving…older forward Radamel Falcao - and another that’s still alive - the potential one-year loan for fullback Josecarlos Van Rankin.

Given Falcao’s age (35), I’m glad that one’s not happening; more minutes to manage seems like the last thing Portland needs. With the other, I’m hoping it’s a case of someone not finishing the thought - as in, if they’re talking a one-year for Van Rankin with an option to extend (and this is barring red flags I haven’t seen yet), yes, because Portland needs fullbacks like Mars needs women (don’t know the origin of that phrase; oop, now I do). Going the other way, if Van Rankin can only give the Timbers a year and he’s the only available, breathing fullback besides Pablo Bonilla and Claudio Bravo, a one-year loan beats nothing by a long shot…but there are more and longer-term options forthcoming, yes? (And don’t say no, dammit.)

Also, I was happy as a punchy pig to see the Timbers sign Larrys Mabiala to a “multi-year contract extension”…even if that sits a little uncomfortably next to the idea that Portland’s defense struggled in (fucked up) 2020. You can’t argue the defense sucks without thinking the Timbers can do better - right? I mean that just stands to reason - but returning all the same players barring one back-up (e.g., Julio Cascante) leaves open the question of what kind of work needs to be done.

FC Cincinnati Update/Anxiety
Speaking of seniors, I spotted a rumor that FC Cincy is one of a couple MLS clubs looking to sign (very) long-time German international Lukas Podolski…and, again, I don’t like signing older players and don’t think I ever will. On the belief that they need to build a foundation (articulated toward the bottom in my 2020 review), I’d call it an even worse choice for a team like Cincinnati. Whatever quality Podolski would bring can only last a year or two; moreover, the better Podolski performs the less likely they’ll be able to afford a younger like-for-like replacement whenever Podolski sheds his mortal (soccer-playing) skin.

More to the point, I’ll flag an emerging, if near-term trend when I get to the MLS-wide section and that’s where and how I believe FC Cincy should be looking. One more thing, a clammy fear in fact, and one I’m going to voice by quoting another tweet that makes a tangential point:

“#FCCincy Update: Sources close to Flamengo have told me that Lincoln does not want to play for FC Cincinnati. I’m not sure he has another choice right now but if he’s that open about not wanting to be here, why continue to go after him?”
- Travis Grimes

Cincinnati, Ohio is a tough sell for players. If nothing else, it is not a glamorous destination city. Nor, for that matter, is Columbus, Ohio. Hell, I’m not even sure Portland, Oregon works as a selling point, but at least it has a certain reputation ("Little Beirut!"), the whole “beach-and-mountains” phenomenon, not to mention increasingly reliable word-of-mouth among players from Argentina.

I don’t know anything about this Lincoln fella, or whether Cincinnati’s reputation, or lack of one, played any role in his lack of interest in living and playing in the Queen City. Going the other way, I don’t have the foggiest fucking idea how Columbus landed Lucas Zelarayan, but the reality of that signing provides some tangible hope that…glamor-deprived U.S. markets can land quality players. My largest point is this: Cincinnati should probably get some kind of useful talent pipeline in place - and soon. I understand that some people think they get this through Jaap Stam’s reputation as a player, or even Gerard Nijkamp’s…Dutchness, I guess? I’m less sure, even if I can’t back up the argument beyond reference to my gut, but I also think they’re racing against a reputation as a very bad team that grows with each season the abysmal records continue.

MLS Round-Up (Yee-haw!)
Again, this is descending order of importance, so mind that…

1) In the Warm Embrace of My Armas
As someone who’s opinion of Chris Armas as a head coach was shaped by a year or so of watching one New York Red Bull’s fan (Ben Mines Stan) bay for his firing, I was shocked to see Toronto FC hire him as their new head coach - and with no apparent strings attached. The Mothership’s Tom Bogert wrote a defense of the decision and he makes some decent arguments - up to and including guiding them to the Supporters’ Shield in 2018, but…again, I’m weighing that case against the baggage of real-world results - specifically, the formerly Shield-winning Red Bulls basically becoming a .500 team over the course Armas’ two full seasons in charge. In other words, there’s an element of driving Jesse Marsch’s car to Armas’ 2018 success…

…going the other way, Armas gets to write his own history in Toronto…even as that team is going through a generational transition of its own, e.g., the (dusky) twilight of the Michael Bradley, Jozy Altidore years. Armas just feels like a stretch here, which is to say I'll be suprised if it works.

2) Playa Moves (and this is where you pay attention, FC Cincy fans)
I’ll put more stock into the trades and transfers I’m qualified to comment on below, but I mostly wanted to flag the kinds of players that MLS teams are picking up in this earliest part of the off-season - e.g., Freddy Vargas and Kalil ElMedkhar to FC Dallas, Sunusi Ibrahim to…Club de Foot Montreal (is it smoother in the native French?), Santiago Rodriguez to New York City FC (speculatively), Deiber Caicedo to the Vancouver Whitecaps (again, speculatively), and Jhon Jader Duran to Chicago…whatever the fuck they’re called (eventually, as in 2022, when he turns 18). The through-line is that these are all young players - 18 on the low end, and 21, maybe 22 on the high.

This is the market I want FC Cincinnati to much around in - as they have with Alvaro Barreal, who showed decent signs of life in late 2020. Podolski is the kind of player a team signs under two circumstances: 1) when they’re struggling to get butts in seats, something Cincinnati hasn’t struggled with so far (so far…), and 2) when you’re close to a trophy-winning squad and you just need some fresh ideas and proven talent to put you over the top - something both clearly and painfully non-operative with FC Cincinnati.

Now, some player moves I’m qualified to comment on:

- Wil Trapp to Minnesota United FC: for all his talents, I’ve always heard Trapp treated as a defensive liability and that makes me wonder. Minnesota is doing some strange shit…

- Los Angeles FC added Corey Baird last week, which seemed a smart piece of business, then they added a fullback with South Korean national team experience (11 caps) in Kim Moon-hwan. This goes back to having a sellable market for luring international players, if only to some extent, but the strength-to-strength vibe of those moves is daunting.

- My blockbuster of the week - even if it’s at least 50% about making room for Freddy Vargas - I can’t believe FC Dallas let go of Michael Barrios. The Colorado Rapids benefitted in their (limited) moneyball way, but Barrios has been such a big part of Dallas’ plans and for so long that the move still takes me by surprise.

- Finally, a truly odd one, if only given the history: the forever low-ambition Houston Dynamo (wait...they changed their name too, right?) signed a forward named Tyler Pasher from USL side Indy Eleven this past week. Given the history of USL players "leveling up" to MLS, I'd call this move depressingly on-brand for a Houston team that has spent the past five years arguing for the logic of promotion/relegation. Going the other way, prove me wrong, kid...

3) The MLS Not-So-SuperDraft
Not to be a snarky shit about this, but the MLS SuperDraft doesn’t tend to produce more than future stars for the USL and some of the most athletic people who will ever enter the “normie” work-force. All the same, here's the full list of eligble players and, as a bonus, The Mothership has done its usual scouting and produced a list of Top 10 prospects. Best of luck to all of them, but they’d all do well to learn to travel light…

That’s all for this week and, as always, that’s plenty.