MLS at 20 (or Thereabouts): Looking Back, Ahead, and Up and Down

He's not sure what he's seeing either.

Going into the June international break, I posted a State-of-the-League behemoth, which amounted to an update of a preview post I put up when Major League Soccer kicked off the 2022 season. On June 10 – i.e., just before the league picked up again after the June break - I followed that up with a pretty damn sloppy post (if structurally spot-on; that was Plan A all along!) that previewed the next five games for all the teams across MLS.

This post will pull notes from those, and look forward to the future with two thoughts in mind: 1) showing what I got and what I missed – which I see as a proxy for the relevant teams actually being what they looked like; and 2) reassessing, oh, everything now that we’ve got 20 games with which to work, my grand pronouncements should stand on a steadier soapbox – and I’ve organized the teams below on that firmer ground. The ranking system should ring a couple bells – e.g., “Contender,” “Playoff-Caliber,” “Margin Walkers,” and “Fodder” – but, again, it’s projection, something that most people should know well enough through everything between weather forecasting more than, oh, three days out. Bring an umbrella and warm clothes, basically, and trust no one and nothing.

Wrapping up the preamble, I thought I’d give quick definitions for each category:

Contenders: Teams that have done consistently well all season.

Playoff Caliber: Teams I can’t see slipping under the playoff line in the next five games…but never say never.

Margin Walkers: Teams I can see falling out of, or climbing into the playoffs over the next five games and for any reason whatsoever.

Fodder: Teams that have done consistently poorly all season, some of whom have been thinking about next season for the past several seasons.

That’s everything. As you’ll see, the “Margin Walker” category is the chunkiest. I explain the calls where I feel like I need to. And…we’re off….

MLS Weakly 01 16 2021: Player Moves, a SuperDraft, Negotiations & No Firm Schedule

A late-winter/spring of cowboy metaphors...

The phrase “silly season” has made its annual return to the soccer lexicon, but the 2021 North American domestic season doubles down on the term. At time of speculating, nobody knows when the 2021 season will start or what it’ll look like; everyone’s counting on a vaccine to make the whole thing possible, as the fucking moronic distribution of that same vaccine races against one or more new and improved strain of COVID-19 in real-time. Also playing for Team COVID: the naked and belligerent unwillingness among tens of millions of Americans to accept reality and take even baby steps to aid and comfort other Americans.

So, this one’s less a “silly season” than a “really fucking stupid with heaping tablespoons of delusion season," which is considerably harder to navigate and/or understand.

On the other hand, that same fucking stubborn stupidity shares a distant relation to a more positive human trait - hope - and so all concerned will prepare for a 2021 season that will kick off ____________, 2021 and end ____________, 2021 (probably) skipping over one obstacle after another outbreak and so on until The Last Team Standing lifts MLS Cup 2021.

 A whiff of parody will follow these posts for the foreseeable future, and mostly because there’s nothing tangible to write about. Tucked into the notes on the negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA; more later) between MLS ownership and the MLS Players’ Association (MLSPA) is the cold, hard fact that no one involved is even talking about opening preseason training, never mind planning for it, which means no preseason games to write about. People have started to talk about whether or not one MLS team or another (e.g., the Portland Timbers) have a shot in 2021’s CONCACAF Champions’ League (CCL), but that competition doesn’t have a start date either, so…

Even qualifying for U-23 soccer tournament in the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo remains “slated to unfold” by the end of March, though there will be friendlies for both the U.S. Men’s National Team (USMNT) and the U.S. Women’s National Team (USWNT) in January, and the USWNT has a whole damn mini-tournament in the second half of February. So, yeah, there is soccer on the horizon, if of a sort not really connected to anything but a vague, hopeful, post-pandemic future…

MLS 2020 Down the Stretch: Expectations, Oddballs & Watercoolers

Valeri's goal, amirite?

Before getting into the details, I’ll start with an observation: I see almost no real give in the Eastern Conference standings - i.e., I don’t really see any of the bottom four climbing out of the outhouse - while the Western Conference looks decently interesting from 6th place on down. Do note, however, the 8th-place Colorado Rapids’ two-three games in hand on everyone around them.

As threatened last week, I’m back to handicapping MLS as a whole, if from a greater distance. The formula will likely evolve from the original plan of separating expected results from the oddballs, but the general idea is to dig deeper on the results that don’t make sense to try to figure out how they happened. I want to go Monday-to-Monday for the long haul, but I got this itch to drop a prototype and that’s what this is. Plus, I wanted to see (some of) what happened when FC Cincinnati visited Philadelphia last Wednesday. (The short, familiar answer: nothing good.)

What I’m fishing for with these weekly posts is enough information to clock some general trends, maybe drop some names about who did what and how often. Call it an acquaintance level relationship with Major League Soccer in sum, enough to join a water-cooler conversation about comings and goings and talking from somewhere more sophisticated than my ass.

Most weeks, I’ll start by ticking through the expected results, touching (very) briefly on stray points of interest. I’ll then close with as many of the oddballs as I can get to - which, for this week, included only two games (though it should've included one more) - and dig deeper into those. The biggest difference comes with the amount of video review - e.g., “baby highlights” + box scores for the expected results and MLS-in-15 plus box scores for the oddballs.

I’ll start this edition with a (very) late round-up of FC Cincy’s midweek loss to Philly, a result that was…so very expected.

New York Red Bulls 0-1 FC Cincinnati: Shall We Dance Again?

RBNY tomorrow, RBNY forever!

For what it’s worth, refreshing my memory by watching the MLS-in-15 cast a brighter light on FC Cincinnati’s grinding 1-0 road win over the New York Red Bulls. If nothing else, it made the whole thing come off as less of a grind - at least on Cincy’s end of things. Oh, and the goal that won it was an absolute delight: Haris Medunjanin floated an olimpico over Red Bulls’ ‘keeper David Jensen’s head, who was dead to rights even before he bumbled backward a defender who’s name doesn’t really matter. Better still, seeing all those Cincy players come up to Medunjanin during the after-game handshakes with dazed and happy looks on their faces might count as my personal highlight of their 2020 season so far. If there were other, better ones, blame it on recency bias.

My strongest overall reaction to the game is pretty simple: wow, do the Red Bulls suck. I accept that’s a strange thing to say, what with them two whole points over FC Cincy in the Eastern Conference standings, but my eyes aren’t lying to me either. New York managed just two shots on goal last Saturday, one of them a pathetic slow-roller that Cincy ‘keeper saw coming from a mile away and had to wait on its arrival. They flailed a couple shots from range - Brian White probably had the best one of those at just half a dozen feet over the crossbar - but, overall, the Red Bulls strained for openings and didn’t look like they’d ever score.

That adds up a little better when you check the standings (already one game stale) and see that New York has scored just one more goal than Cincinnati during the 2020 season - and, so long as you accept that Cincy’s attack sucks (it does, but…) certain obvious things follow from. Every time I’ve watched the Red Bulls over the past couple seasons, I see a team that doesn’t do anything particularly well. And that’s a hell of a fall off for a team that won the Supporters’ Shield three times during the 2010s. While I’m still able to place most of the players in their starting XI, New York’s overall vibe is an anonymous collection of guys role-playing their assigned positions. Again, Cincinnati hasn’t been good, but New York hasn’t been much better: just 1-4-1 over their last six games.

Just one more thing about the Red Bulls: FC Cincy seems to have their number. They hold the edge in the series between the teams for 2020, two wins to New York’s one and, now, a 5-3 advantage in goals scored. A related fun(?) fact: Cincinnati has scored just three goals against teams that aren’t the Red Bulls this fucked-up season for a frankly wretched 0.33 goals for average against all other comers (well, four goals if you add the one they bagged against the Portland Timbers in the MLS Is Back tournament). I mean…what do you do with this information except ask for more games against New York?

FC Cincinnati 2-0 New York Red Bulls: The Incredible Power of Being Under-Estimated

Stunningly, this is not an oft-used phrase...

When I first started writing about the Portland Timbers the second time around, there was a guy in the blogging community who named his site Possession with Purpose. Before going on, I want to make one thing very clear, he was a good guy (met him once or twice), I had no beef with his content, etc. etc. It was the name of his site that got to me, specifically, the implication of possession itself as an objective good. I found that unbelievably distracting, and with the emphasis on unbelievably. Possession is fine when, obviously…when it works.

Before I start obsessing about the New York Red Bulls, I want to make one more thing very clear, clearer even than the point above: FC Cincinnati deserved its sleepwalk-of-2-0 win over New York. More than that, I want to talk about what they’ve accomplished over…two short games (I mean, obviously, what happened against Columbus, 1) stands tall against the point I’m making and, 2) was extraordinarily agonizing to watch…like a bully beating his victim, I tell you.). The 2019 season saw (for those who need reminding, aka, no one) Cincinnati post the record for the most goals allowed in Major League Soccer history; they turned in the worst-ever goal differential, and by a wider margin. Cincy’s defense was fucking horrific last season - and yet they’re headed into the knockout rounds of MLS Is Back with just a -1 goal differential. Yes, both Atlanta United FC and the Red Bulls sucked far, far worse than anyone (or most people) expected and that’s part of it. I’ll get to that, trust me. Sticking with Cincinnati…

My wife came down mid-way through the second half and, things being as they were by that time, of course I drifted out of the game now and again (and again) talking to her, sometimes about completely different subjects. When I looked up, though, the same broad plot-lines stood out. First, Cincinnati rarely had possession, but they always looked sharper and, this is big, more certain in possession when they had it. I wouldn’t even call it counter-attacking soccer, either, and that’s as a good thing. Once Cincy established possession and got their heads up, they started moving forward, creating passing options and looking for them. By the time went up two goals (56th minute), and forgot all about the trap-door they’d stood on going into the game, I’d even say that got a little jiggy with it, e.g., throwing in the odd back-heel, stepping over the ball to dummy it to another player; they looked like a team having fun, and why not? I’m not arguing it was random, or that it came from nothing, so much as I’m praising its composure.

An MLS History Project, 2015: Symmetry, Tragedy and Triumph

Yes, on multiple levels...

Of the 24 (full, unfucked) seasons in Major League Soccer history, 2015 counts as the most consequential for me, personally – and not for the obvious reason. Yes, the Portland Timbers won MLS Cup and, yes, it was one hell of a ride and I’ll cover all of that below, probably to the point of short-changing the rest of the league. To paraphrase the great moral philosopher, U.S. Attorney General William Barr, the writing of history falls to the victors (and, to finish his thought, yes, I just put Baby in the fucking corner, deal with it).

To get the personal weirdness out of the way, I barely enjoyed watching the Timbers win MLS Cup. It wasn’t a great game for one – and I mean that in terms of spectacle – Portland’s goals were cheap (the first) and dirty (the second) and, because their opponents, Columbus Crew SC, never really recovered from Diego Valeri’s sucker-punch goal in the very first minute, it was effectively over as a contest by the 7th minute when the Timbers’ Rodney Wallace scored their second, naughty goal (here's a wrap-up of all the malfeasance in MLS Cup 2015). On a deeper level – and a misplaced one, as explained below – I experienced the 2015 season as seven months of (at times deep) mediocrity followed by two weeks of joy. I struck out on a metaphor in my post on the 2014 season, so I’ll borrow a cliché and say I want at least four of those seven months back, dammit.

In fewer words, 2015 was the season I decided I’d take the Supporters’ Shield over MLS Cup every goddamn time. Watching a better team get results all year long sounds like a better season to me, thank you very much (and winning the U.S. Open Cup will always be a happy accident and/or a sporadic confidence builder for your bench, will be rewarded for their service by watching the starters step in to steal the glory over the final two games). The grass is always greener, the cup will never be anything but half-full, the pope wears a funny hat and shits in the woods, etc.

Moving on to programming notes, I’m not going to list all the teams, their records and some notes at the end of the post anymore. Back when I started this, that seemed like the best way to provide hard information about a season, but you can read and digest the final 2015 conference tables as well as I can, and now I’ve got the Form Guide, fresher memories, and more reliable access to video highlights, and that gives me enough material to create and/or embellish a narrative of the season. [Ed. – Point in fact, I could watch highlights of most games from the 2015 season, but I love myself too much for that madness.] Now, to our regularly scheduled programming…

An MLS History Project, 2014: Of DPs and an Indifferent, Yet Angry Universe

I have my limits....

Several times in prior posts in this series, I’ve talked about Major League Soccer becoming the league it is today (e.g., 2020, only without COVID-19), with established rules and practices that carry over from year to year (I devoted a messy paragraph to this argument in my 2013 post). As I keep discovering, oh, every time I look to the next season (or five), that doesn’t hold up. There will always be the next stupid idea, another cheapening of the competitive structure that will devalue the regular season until the ice caps melt and we all drown. The circle of life, etc. Happily, we get relief from the worst ideas here and there and, the league did make one little big tweak to the rules of competition for the 2014 season and that one caught all of my eye:

“The first tiebreaker remains total wins, but the second and third tiebreakers have been swapped—goal difference is now second and goals scored is third.”

The first time I considered goal differential as (perhaps) a key tell for future success specifically in the MLS playoffs showed up in my post on the 2010 season. And, yes, this change feels like validation…which is why I assume it won’t last. All the same, when I finally wrap up 2019 season, I will create an index/summary post that links to all of this “history project” shit and tie it all together with some details that stand out. The goal differential thing will get explored, along with a number of others. There was one other tweak to the rules in 2014 – MLS decided that away goals would count a little more in the playoffs. And they would.

While some big shifts await – mostly thinking TAM and GAM, but also how the league managed the playoffs –2014 was a curious mix of old and new. On the “old” side, the Los Angeles Galaxy (again) battled the new-model New England Revolution (again) in an MLS Cup at the Galaxy’s home ground (again; 6th fucking time at that venue, people). Because the Seattle Sounders had been reliably good since joining the league in…wow, forgot already…2010(? nope, 2009), seeing them lift the 2014 Supporters’ Shield twists the “new” side of the above into another step toward Seattle’s eternally bright future…yeah, yeah, you can hate it, Portland Timbers fans, you just have to swallow the reality of it.

When Seattle won the Supporters' Shield, they pulled off their…shit, fourth or fifth trophy as an MLS team (the U.S. Open Cup ends before the playoffs, right? So, their first Shield was their 5th trophy) by running up the score all season long. The forward tandem of Obafemi Martins (17g, 13a) and Clint Dempsey (15g, 10a) did the heavy rowing to get them to 65 goals over the regular season. A couple teams kept up nicely – the Timbers among them (just four goals behind at 61), but the Los Angeles Galaxy makes the greater point of interest. They topped Seattle by four goals (69), and pulled a highly-similar trick with Robbie Keane (19g, 14a) and Landon Donovan (10g, 19a) leading the way. The difference was, those two made more players better than Dempsey and Martins: it starts with Gyasi Zardes hitting higher numbers than Lamar Neagle (16g, 2a for Zardes, 9g, 9a for Neagle), but it carried all the way down to about the 8th spot on the statistical ladder for the Galaxy. Still, in both cases, your better DPs raise all boats.

An MLS History Project, 2013: The First MLS 2.0 Final?

Pictured thinking of phrasing for me...

Due to the way my brain does and doesn’t retain things, I have two broad memories about the 2013 Portland Timbers team. The first is unconscious: I believe this team planted the deep memory in my mind that Portland has never had a bad season. 2013 was, in fact, a very good regular season for the Timbers. Even if you remember they battled for the Supporters’ Shield to the death, you may not remember how close they came: the New York Red Bulls went 6-0-2 in their last 8 games, while Portland went 5-0-3; the Timbers fell two points short. Pretty damn close.

Second, Diego Valeri, Diego Chara aside – OK, yes, and Rodney Wallace (7 goals, 6 assists) and Will Johnson (what? 9 goals, 5 assists?!) – this team relied on players who scan as mediocre in my memory. That’s particularly true in defense, where I saw Pa Modou Kah as clumsy (mostly in disposition) and Mamadou “Futty” Danso, who I’ve always read as playing over his talent – to his credit - but who I can’t bring myself to buy as an MLS defender. (That’s why it came as less of a surprise when FC Cincinnati’s Forrest Lasso didn’t cut it; I’d seen the movie; also, the word “top-flight defender” doesn’t feel right in my mouth, so I went with “MLS defender.” Back to it…)

Whatever I thought of them, Danso and Kah anchored MLS’s second best defensive team in 2013: they allowed just 33 goals in a season with a league-wide, goals for/against average of 46.7; only Sporting Kansas City allowed fewer (30), and they won MLS Cup that season. SKC also finished fairly high – and I’ll get to that – but, to finish off Portland, the other “scan(s) as mediocre” player was Ryan Johnson. I’ve seen wistful backward glances at Ryan Johnson recently as a year ago, and he did have a pretty broad tool kit as a forward, but I’ve never heard anyone say, “that’s the guy to win Portland trophies.” A complementary piece, a second banana, Johnson fits all of that, but he did have a solid season, chipping in 9 goals and 4 assists. Those aren’t great numbers in the grandest of schemes, but they weren't far off the norm for 2013, so, in context, not so bad. Honestly, it was a tough room…

…then again, Camilo Sanvezza posted 22 goals and three assists for Vancouver that season, and Marco di Viao was the Montreal Impact’s first league-wide fascination the same season (20 goals, two assists; classy, lethal player, the guy was a total gas; a worthy predecessor to Ignacio Piatti). Johnson suffers in comparison here and there – e.g., Mike Magee hitting 15 goals and 4 assists with his hometown Chicago Fire - but he was at the low end of average at worst. And that’s really how MLS’s 2013 season worked: a tight-fisted season, which ended with a tight-fisted, balls-shriveling MLS Cup (cold AF) hosted by Sporting Kansas City, and won by Sporting Kansas City, after a fascinatingly interminable penalty-kick shoot-out, because Nick Rimando and Jimmy Nielsen, and a fiver (I’ll venmo) if you can tell me his nickname (no googling!).

An MLS History Project, 2006: My First Heartbreak (& New England's Third)

Buy the ticket, take the ride.

The “firsts” start to dry up as Major League Soccer’s history moves closer to the present – does adding a new team really count in a league that adds two a season? - but 2006 saw a few. The Chicago Fire opened the league’s third soccer-specific stadium up in Bridgeview, Illinois (per franchise tradition, it was a mixed bag) and the ridiculously-named New York/New Jersey MetroStars became the no less ridiculously-named New York Red Bulls (or Red Bull New York, I can never truly remember). Parenthetical specifics aside, both moves amounted to what the domestic top-flight needed more than anything else: long-term investment and stability.

The biggest on-field change saw the San Jose Earthquakes move to Houston, Texas for the 2006 season. It didn’t look great, but it looked nothing like the contraction that culled the Florida teams after the 2001 regular season (my notes here). In fact, a general failure to invest in the San Jose market prompted the move, not league-wide financial struggles. I’ll get to all that and more, but, to paraphrase a line from the Jaws 3 trailer, the 2006 season was unusually personal.

Soccer fans talk about “bleeding” for their teams all the time, and of “living and dying on every goal.” I don’t do that. In fact, I can count on the number of games that transported me to real rapture on two hands at most. To name two that should give you some idea of where I set the bar, the United States Men’s 3-2 win over Portugal in their 2002 World Cup opener and the Portland Timbers’ famous double-post victory over Sporting Kansas City make the cut. (Another is highly personal, a random league game that saw Liverpool put four goals past Newcastle in a back-and-forth barn-burner they ultimately won; I took a shot of gin for every goal Liverpool scored that season, and it took some work to talk the bartender into honoring the tradition). I’ve got moments where joy and rage boiled over by the hundreds, but it takes a lot to get me to transcendence.

MLS Cup 2006 was another one.

New York Red Bulls 3-2 FC Cincinnati: The Battle They Won & A Special Little Miracle

Deck still works. (That's taking the positives, baby!)

I’d argue that result makes the bigger, poorer statement on the state of the New York Red Bulls than it makes about FC Cincinnati. More to the point, New York absolutely needed that late, unlikely goal from Daniel Royer to win the game 3-2 and to stay one small step ahead of opening day embarrassment. Cincinnati held a fairly clear, universal edge over the game’s last 30 minutes – and, most encouraging for them, new, spendy kid Jurgen Locadia provided a focal point for forward traffic once he took the field.

As for the bad news, the Red Bulls scrambled the bejesus out of Cincy’s defensive shape throughout the first half. Their passing and movement made the Orange and Blue’s defensive midfield, in particular, about as useful to the overall effort as me sitting on my sofa quietly whispering, “dear gods, what is happening over there?” For as long as they had the energy to pull it off, New York worked their usual, preferred formula of forcing turnovers and immediately finding good, often novel ways of getting vertical toward the opposition goal.

There’s a cautionary tale for both teams in that: as much as Cincinnati’s defensive posture improved (i.e., defenders started tracking the movement and anticipating the next pass), nearly every Red Bulls’ player’s legs had given out before the game’s end. Scuffed touches saw them looking down to make sure they took the ball with them on dribbles and under-hit/wayward passes made it easier for Cincy’s defenders to pick off the strays than it had been during a first half of smart, sure touches.

They might not have won the game, but Cincinnati won the fitness battle…though it’s also worth wondering whether the Red Bulls run their collective legs off whilst building their cushion in the first half. To reduce that to an analogy, did Cincinnati push the Red Bulls to the edge, or a lactic acid burn take the Red Bulls out of the way?

Portland Timbers 0-2 New York Red Bulls: Short (Pfft!), Sharp and Disappointed

Happy Halloween, motherfuckers!! (aka, how crosses work).

I want to start with one thought, something I feel escapes fans from time to time.

If your accountant fucks up your taxes, you complain, yes? If the kitchen sent you something you didn’t order and it’s cold, you send that wrecked fucking garbage back to the kitchen and demand an apology, right?

When a ref calls a bad game, you lose your whole goddamn mind and tell him you wish he would die in a fiery crash tomorrow with his whole worthless, myopic family, don’t you?

Professional athletes are not sacred spirit creatures. They are people who are hired to do a job. When they fail at the job, there is nothing wrong with pointing it out.

When you insult them personally, or, for example, wish them bodily harm (as in the refereeing example above; i.e., neither say nor think such things), yes, you have crossed the line and, as MLS says, don’t cross the line.

The point is, there’s nothing wrong with saying this player or that hasn’t done well for some time or, to borrow a point from someone else (@isaacfharris), that a coach isn’t making the proper adjustments. Now, to tonight’s game. Bullet-point style.

Form Guide ULTRA, Week 18: ....Slippage Theory

Since when does a trapdoor open upward? What the hell is up with Google.

Given the metric shit-ton of data below, and it’s late, so I’ll keep this brief. First, here is the scale I use to “rank” each team in MLS. It’s meant to be vague, and don’t pay too much attention to the order in which I list them. It’s all very much contingent.

C – Contender: a team you can plausibly see winning every time it takes the field.

M+ - Mid-Table-Plus: a team you expect to get results that make sense, plus some strays.

M- - Mid-Table-Minus: they have a little something to them, just not enough of it.

R – Road-Kill: can and will lose anytime and anywhere.

Those letters show up in the last row of the set of tables down below, which I call the Info-Boxes (plus addenda). That’s meant to provide strength of schedule for all the games each team has played, or least a shifting opinion of it. I update (or try to) the letter rankings for every team each week, but without touching the past weeks’ rankings; that’s meant to capture how I felt at the time/fallibility. That feels sufficiently caveated so, moving on…

I went a little nuts with knocking teams off a pedestals in Week 18. Most of the damage happened amongst the Contender class: there I knocked the New York Red Bulls down to M+, despite their record (5-3-2, over their last 10 games), and on the grounds that they no longer look like a team that can beat anyone anywhere. I kicked Atlanta United FC’s ass all the way down to M- because their away record, along with the goal differential that kept them among the top, fell apart. Again, the defining trait of MLS's upper classes turns on beating anyone, anywhere. Down among the dreges, the Houston Dynamo slipped from M+ to M- for a similar reason: they're terrible on the road, and patterns matter once they become entrenched.

There’s trapdoors all over MLS as it turns out, because I also put a bunch of teams on something not far off from an avalanche watch (i.e., the conditions are right for something to fall downhill and fuck up all kinds of things). That group includes: the Seattle Sounders, who have their credibility on the line in real time over their next five games; meanwhile, between their easy recent schedules and tougher times ahead, DC United and the Colorado Rapids round the Avalanche Watch category. (Related, I’d file two teams under “precarious” – as in, they’re fine so long as they can stay on top of the higher branches: FC Dallas and the Chicago Fire).

MLS Form Guide ULTRA: Week(s) 14/15: We Have Strength of Schedule Data

One of the many wild cards in play right now.

With the league taking a break to accommodate Gold Cup 2019, the schedulers at Major League Soccer HQ decided to put the regular season on hold until June 22, i.e., when teams across CONCACAF will play...their second group stage game. I don’t know what to say, except that the schedulers seem to like the U.S. Men’s chances about as much as anybody – which is to say, not at all.

Still, with the league on ice for just short of two weeks, I wanted to post this place-holder on the state of play across MLS. Also, with 21 of the league’s 24 teams having 15 games under their belts, it finally feels like pundits have enough data to make generally applicable statements about how every team in the league stacks up in terms of form and quality. I’ve made my own judgments below by lumping them into four broad categories. And those are:

Contenders: The teams who win more often than not and who look like reasonable bets for the playoffs and beyond.

Mid-Table Plus: Teams more likely to beat your team than not, if depending on circumstances (the Houston Dynamo defines this category), but without showing clear signs they can hang with the contenders.

Mid-Table Minus: Teams who are unlikely to compete for anything real (e.g., “we're focusing on Cup play”), but who can be a real pain in the ass when you play them – again, circumstances depending.

Road-Kill: The league’s reliable patsies, the team your team should dunk on every time, and you should be sad when they don’t. A real select group, this one…

I used those four loose categories to come up with the freshly-added “strength of schedule” information now folded into the Info-Boxes down below. And, because that took no small amount of work, and because I’ve got much, much (much, much) more left to do tonight, I’m calling this preamble finished. Just one final note:

MLS Form Guide ULTRA, Week 13: A Whole Bunch of Data & A Stupid Epiphany

There are dozens of more respectful images, but I liked the roman candle.

With a narrative summary of MLS Week 13 posted over on Orange & Blue Press, I can finally post the source material. [Ed. – If I edit these posts even once, the formatting falls apart; these things can actually look worse, swear to god.] While I at least touched on every game in that narrative summary, a handful of useful details/budding narratives fell to the cutting room floor.

Before that, and to wrap up the argument I started against the “West > East” line in the narrative post, the reason I resisted that is down below in how I organized…fine, ranked the teams. If you use “W” for the Western Conference, and “E” for the Eastern, my top eight ranking is: WEEWWEWW. Yes, that is five teams out of eight in favor of the Western Conference, but I also have Eastern Conference teams in the next three spots (e.g., 9-11). I don’t like the verb “rank” on these things, because I think the sports rankings only achieve clarity at the poles – e.g., it can tell you which teams are good, and which teams suck openly and weekly, but the deeper reality is that everything just sort of runs together in the middle – especially in a (relatively) tight-wad league like MLS. In so many words, the clearest judgments are at the beginning and the end - and that's how I push past the "West > East" narrative: the bad teams in both conferences are just bad. (yes, I saw that Colorado beat Columbus...but was that really so weird? See below.) and you can ignore everything in the middle. Shit. Why did explaining that make me feel like I’m the last guy to experience this “epiphany”? Now, some details…

I won’t gloat for long about the Timbers’ win over Phillly (that’s been covered), but the moved up in the crapshoot down below because they were a team on a solid run beating a strong team at home; that’s the smell of upward momentum. To continue with that theme:

- The Red Bulls went higher on ruthlessness alone, but, goddammit, are they borderline unwatchable. Without the(ir comparative) elegance from seasons past, the gegenpresse becomes hacking, send-in-the-goons stuff. One more page falls from that little red book I keep about the league…

- If their defense starts leaking, Seattle doesn’t have the offense to cover for that right now. Just a point of interstfaction.

- I have both Dallas and Houston over Atlanta down below and, that’s where the idea about closeness to the center comes from. Anyone who remembers Atlanta just rolling over teams in 2018, can’t escape the comparison. They still look a little uncertain out there - even on the defensive side (their late strength) against RSL. I can’t defend where I put Dallas because they have flat-out died out there (two points from 15 - yeah!). Also, the games can't help but get easier, so they've looked good enough for me to expect them to pick up points. With Houston, they need to visibly fuck-up before I write them off.

- LAFC are very good, but they’re mowing through a soft-ish stretch right now, so that’s to be expected. Or, the short version, kicking Montreal’s ass in any venue just isn’t that impressive.

Uh, what else? I think the Chicago Fire are playing closer to their honest level than any team in MLS. A Jimmy-Carter-esque malaise has seized DC, and I still don’t buy Minnesota, even while completely accepting that a lot of their key players are doing well (but Darwin Quintero has to make better decisions). All right, that’s that. Time for the Info-Boxes. I think they’re self-explanatory, and also a loose form of obsessive (“Weeks Since I’ve Posted This Feature Without a Factual Error: 0”). Forward any questions/arguments over twitter (@JeffBull5), I guess. I just wanna sleep...

LOS ANGELES FC, 10-1-4, 34 points, 36 gf, 11 ga, (7-0-1 home, 3-1-3 away)

Last 10 games: WWLWDDWWDW (6-1-3)

Last 10 at home: WWDWW

Last 10 away: WLDWD

W	W	L	W	D	D	W	W	D	W
a DC	v CIN	a VAN	v SEA	a SEA	v CHI	a CLB	v FCD	a FCD	v MTL
4-0	2-0	0-1	4-1	1-1	0-0	3-0	2-0	1-1	4-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Expectation met, boring as you like. If someone asked me to explain LAFC’s success with one highlight, I’d show them this one.

Next Games: @ Portland (6/1) If they beat Portland like the beat Montreal, it’s time for the rest of MLS to dig out that pair of spare pants. Happily, Portland has made that more of an open question than it was 5-6 weeks ago.

PHILADELPHIA UNION, 7-4-3, 24 points, 24 gf, 15 ga, (5-2-1 home, 2-2-2 away)

Last 10 games: WWLWDWWWDL (6-2-2)

Last 10 at home: WWWWDL

Last 10 away: WLDW

W	W	L	W	D	W	W	W	D	L
a CIN	v FCD	a LAG	v MTL	a VAN	v CIN	v NE	a TFC	v SEA	v POR
2-0	2-1	0-2	3-0	1-1	3-0	6-1	2-1	0-0	1-3
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. That’s two punches on the nose against two West Coast teams and with both games in Philly. Noted. (And the better West Coast team actually won their game. Also noted.). As noted in my extended write-up, the Union still looked very good – even losing.

Next Games. v Colorado (5/29), @ Minnesota (6/2), v RBNY (6/8). “I expect them 8-10 points higher by then,” was last week’s take away on Philly’s schedule. The window for that just shrank. And at least one of those games looks harder after today (away to Minnesota).

NEW YORK CITY FC, 4-1-7, 19 points, 16 gf, 13 ga, (1-0-4 home, 3-1-3 away)

Last 10 games: DLDDWWDWWD (4-1-6)

Last 10 at home: DDWD

Last 10 away: LDWWDD

D	L	D	D	W	W	D	W	W	D
v LAF	a TFC	v MTL	a MIN	a DC	v CHI	v ORL	a MTL	a LAG	a CHI
2-2	0-4	0-0	3-3	2-0	1-0	1-1	2-0	2-0	1-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Another game, another draw, but also a remarkable unbeaten streak. They looked a little sluggish out there, honestly, but they’ve also taken seven points of nine, all of them on the road.

Next Game: @ Columbus (6/1) v Cincinnati (6/6). To paraphrase the last post, “six points seems realistic (Thanks, Ohio!).” They feel like a good bet to get 10 of 12 from a run of four road games, and FC Cincy doesn’t look like they could stop a gaggle of toddlers right now.

SEATTLE SOUNDERS, 7-2-5, 26 points, 24 gf, 17 ga, (6-0-2 home, 1-2-3 away)

Last 10 games: WWLDDDWWDL (4-2-4)

Last 10 at home: WWDDWW

Last 10 away: LDDL

W	W	L	D	D	D	W	W	D	L
v RSL	v TFC	a LAF	v SJ	v LAF	a MIN	v HOU	v ORL	a PHI	a SKC
1-0	3-2	1-4	2-2	1-1	1-1	1-0	2-1	0-0	2-3
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Details aside, this was about the result you’d expect from these two teams in a context-free game. In context, though, the Sounders just aren’t posting big results – and it goes beyond things breaking wrong for them (e.g., they missed a sure goal, but also got away with a hand-ball, so…karma’s still balanced).

Next Games. v FCD (6/1), @ Montreal (6/5). “…anything less than four points between here and the Gold Cup should be cause for concern at this point.” I think that still holds – especially since their next two games are two they should win. But that’s what you watch for.

HOUSTON DYNAMO, 7-3-2, 23 points, 20 gf, 13 ga, (6-0-2 home, 1-3-0 away)

Last 10 games: WWWLWWLDWL (6-3-1)

Last 10 at home: WWWWDW

Last 10 away: WLLL

W	W	W	L	W	W	L	D	W	L
v VAN	a COL	v SJ	a LAG	v CLB	v HOU	a SEA	v POR	v DC	a MIN
3-2	4-1	2-1	1-2	2-0	2-1	0-1	1-1	2-1	0-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Their road jinx returns(?), but I wouldn’t read too much into this loss. They kept Minnesota largely to half-chances. A little less wayward shooting, and this game was theirs for the taking.

Next. v SKC (6/1). It just got a little tougher for them to go into the Gold Cup Break on a high; still, gives the Dynamo another shot at proving they’re death at home.

NEW YORK RED BULLS, 6-5-3, 21 points, 21 gf, 16 ga, (4-3-1 home, 2-2-2 away)

Last Ten: LDLWWLWWDW (5-3-2)

Last 10 at home: LWWLWD

Last 10 away: DLWW

L	D	L	W	W	L	W	W	D	W
v MIN	a SKC	a NE	v CIN	v LA	v MTL	a FCD	v ATL	v VAN	a CIN
1-2	2-2	0-1	1-0	3-2	1-2	3-1	1-0	2-2	2-0
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. As pointed out in my extended notes, the Red Bulls didn’t look good, they barely generated offense, the press didn’t do shit, etc. They still won, and that’s two wins on the road now. The long-term trend has all of one hiccup in it (the home loss to Montreal…WTF?)

Next Games. v RSL (6/1), @ Philly (6/8). “Six points from this stretch of games, amounts to announcing its revival.” They picked up three points already, and with how RSL plays on the road…and against a possession side like Philly. This could be a real pivot for them.

PORTLAND TIMBERS, 4-6-2, 14 points, 17 gf, 23 ga, (0-0-0 home, 4-6-2 away)

Last 10 games: LLLLWWWLDW (4-5-1)

Last 10 at home: N/A

Last 10 away: LLLLWWWLDW

L	L	L	L	W	W	W	L	D	W
a CIN	a LAG	a SJ	a FCD	a CLB	a TFC	a RSL	a VAN	a HOU	3-1
0-3	1-2	0-3	2-1	3-1	2-1	2-1	0-1	1-1	a PHI
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. That’s a lot of Ws up there and, as argued in my extended notes on their win over Philly, “Portland, 1) still has viable (healthy) talent, and 2) has its shit figured out.”

Next Games. v LAFC (6/1). It doesn’t really matter if Portland wins this – they’ve got lots of season left to tear up – but, jesus fucking Christ, do I want them to win this game.

FC DALLAS, 5-6-3, 18 points, 18 gf, 19 ga, (3-1-3 home, 2-5-0 away)

Last 10 games: WLWWDLLLDL (3-5-2)

Last 10 at home: WDLD

Last 10 away: WLWLLL

W	L	W	W	D	L	L	L	D	L
a RSL	a PHI	v POR	a ATL	v SJ	a HOU	v RB	a LAF	v LAF	a VAN
4-2	1-2	2-1	2-1	0-0	1-2	1-3	0-2	1-1	1-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. “Dallas impressed me a little last weekend.” That was last weekend, and I almost wrote them off – and, with just one point from the last 15 on offer, that stands up. True, Dallas dying on the road, but they’ve played in the toughest places over that stretch (and Vancouver), their last 5 games were hell, and they put up big numbers for the second week running. They had every chance to draw this match to boot.

Next Games. v Seattle (6/1), @ San Jose (6/8). None of the above matters if they can’t convert big numbers into wins. All the tough games now means they should hit a soft patch later.

ATLANTA UNITED FC, 6-5-2, 20 points, 14 gf, 11 ga, (3-1-2 home, 3-4-0 away)

Last 10 games: LWLWWWWWLL (6-4-0)

Last 10 at home: LWWW

Last 10 away: LWWWLL

L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	L	L
a CLB	a NE	v FCD	v COL	a SKC	v TFC	v ORL	a VAN	a NYR	a RSL
0-2	2-0	1-2	1-0	3-0	2-0	1-0	1-0	0-1	1-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. While I’d be damned anxious about how many shots they gave away from range (seriously, ask Brad Guzan how he felt about this), they made RSL take every last minute to beat them. Also, that’s a curious little streak they’ve started…

Next Game. v Minnesota (5/29), v Chicago (6/1). Those two games aren’t must-wins, but they sure as hell are “should-wins.” Anything else is just giving away points.

DC UNITED, 7-4-4, 25 points, 19 gf, 14 ga, (4-2-1 home, 3-2-3 away)

Last 10 games: DWLWLWWDLD (4-3-3)

Last 10 at home: DLWW

Last 10 away: WWLDLD

D	W	L	W	L	W	W	D	L	D
v MTL	a COL	v NYC	a CLB	a MIN	v CLB	v SKC	a TFC	a HOU	a NE
0-0	3-2	0-2	1-0	0-1	3-1	1-0	0-0	1-2	1-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. A tricky game to read, honestly. The condensed game didn’t show much from them beyond Wayne Rooney getting on both sides of an ass-kicking. They had a man advantage for most of the second half, and still needed a gift of a penalty call to rescue a point. The recent road form is a cause for concern – especially given the opposition.

Next Game: v Chicago (5/29), v San Jose (6/1). They need wins in both, but less than four points is what I’m really watching for.

CHICAGO FIRE, 4-5-5, 16 points, 21 gf, 18 ga, (4-1-3 home, 0-4-2 away)

Last 10 games: DDWLLDWWLD (3-3-4)

Last 10 at home: DWWWD

Last 10 away: DLLDL

D	D	W	L	L	D	W	W	L	D
a TFC	v VAN	v COL	a NYC	a MTL	a LAF	v NE	v MIN	a SJ	v NYC
2-2	1-1	4-1	0-1	0-1	1-1	5-0	2-0	1-4	1-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. They had a real opportunity to win this game and that would’ve been something. Take out the fluke against San Jose, and I’d argue that their last five games show the Fire’s level (which is decent).

Next Games. @ DC, 5/29, @ Atlanta, 6/1. “…if they give away the next nine points – sure feels possible - can they recover?” A win would have been nice, sure, but they didn’t give up the next nine points. The question is what comes next – especially with their road record.

MINNESOTA UNITED FC, 6-4-3, 21 points, 21 gf, 18 ga, (3-0-3 home, 3-4-0 away)

Last 10 games: LWDLDWDLWW (4-3-3)

Last 10 at home: DDWDWW

Last 10 away: LWLL

L	W	D	L	D	W	D	L	W	W
a NE	a NYR	v NYC	a TFC	v LAG	v DC	v SEA	a CHI	v CLB	v HOU
1-2	2-1	3-3	3-4	0-0	1-0	1-1	0-2	1-0	1-0
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. “A team simply can’t leave that much fetid air between wins and expect to get anywhere.” That was last week and, so that’s one issue fixed gap closed. On the other hand, they won it on a (damned) lucky goal, and gave Houston too much to work with.

Next Games. @ Atlanta (5/29), v Philly (6/2), @ Colorado (6/8). That’s still a nightmare schedule, and they’ll (realistically) want 4 or more points out of it.

REAL SALT LAKE, 6-6-1, 19 points, 20 gf, 21 ga, (4-2-0 home, 2-4-1 away)

Last 10 games: LLLWWLLWWW (5-5-0)

Last 10 at home: LWLWW

Last 10 away: LLWLW

L	L	L	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
a LAF	v FCD	a SEA	v ORL	a CIN	a LAG	v POR	a COL	v TFC	v ATL
1-2	2-4	0-1	2-1	3-0	1-2	1-2	3-2	3-0	2-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. RSL looked perfectly comfortable going toe-to-toe with the lately-revived reigning champs. They firmed up their case to be taken seriously over the last three games - and showing you can win without a “real” forward – bombs away (i.e., Savarino, Saucedo, and Rusnak).

Next Games: @ Montreal (5/29), @ RBNY (6/1). God knows what’ll happen in their next game (against Montreal, all cards are wild), but getting anything out of Red Bull Arena would be something.

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES, 5-6-2, 17 points, 20 gf, 24 ga, (4-3-0 home, 1-3-2 away)

Last 10 games: LWLWDDWLWW (5-3-2)

Last 10 at home: LWWWW

Last 10 away: LDDLW

L	W	L	W	D	D	W	L	W	W
v LAF	v POR	a HOU	v SKC	a SEA	a FCD	v CIN	a NE	v CHI	a TFC
0-5	3-0	1-2	4-1	2-2	0-0	1-0	1-3	4-1	2-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. They won this one on the back of having one good player (Cristian Espinoza) being able to find another one (Chris Wondolowski). Two times. Looked like an even game in most regards, but finishing and desire, and the ‘Quakes held the edge in both cases.

Next Games: @ DC (6/1), v Dallas (6/8). At the same time, “anything over six points should command people’s attention” was last week’s note. They’re halfway there by beating Chicago.

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS, 4-6-5, 17 points, 16 gf, 19 ga, (3-3-2 home, 1-3-3 away)

Last 10 games: DWLDWWLDDW (4-2-4)

Last 10 at home: WDWLW

Last 10 away: DLWDD

D	W	L	D	W	W	L	D	D	W
a CHI	v LAF	a ORL	v PHI	a COL	v POR	v ATL	a SKC	a NYR	v FCD
1-1	1-0	0-1	1-1	3-2	1-0	0-1	1-1	2-2	2-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. “Overall, they’re rounding into a tough game, minimum.” I love when my theories hold up…but, even if the ‘Caps should have made it 3-1, they got out-played in the game and it took a couple lucky bounces and a great goal to get all three. The fate of Ali Adnan’s groin could be a big deal (this is just one thing he can do).

Next Games. v TFC (5/31). “Dallas should trouble them.” And they did, just not enough. Playing a Toronto team in free-fall in Vancouver could see them over the playoff line at the break.

LOS ANGELES GALAXY, 8-5-1, 25 points, 19 gf, 17 ga, (6-2-0 home, 2-3-1 away)

Last 10 games: WWWDWLLLLW (5-4-1)

Last 10 at home: WWWLL

Last 10 away: WDLLW

W	W	W	D	W	L	L	L	L	W
a VAN	v PHI	v HOU	a MIN	v RSL	a RB	a CLB	v NYC	v COL	a ORL
2-0	2-0	2-1	0-0	2-1	2-3	1-3	0-2	0-1	0-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Jonathan dos Santos got one, and got away with win (HT; Nani). A win counts more or less according to circumstances. A necessary win, but it doesn’t re-write the Galaxy’s fate.

Next Games. @ SKC (5/29), v NE Revs (6/2). “A good team eats that run alive, that’s all I’m saying. I’d be stunned if they get less than three points.” Low bar, cleared. I’ll give ‘em credit if they get three more points.

MONTREAL IMPACT, 6-6-3, 21 points, 17 gf, 23 ga, (2-1-1 home, 4-5-2 away)

Last 10 games: DWLWWLWLDL (4-4-2)

Last 10 at home: WWLD

Last 10 away: DLWWL

D	W	L	W	W	L	W	L	D	L
a DC	v CLB	a PHI	a NE	v CHI	v NYC	a RB	a CIN	v NE	a LAF
0-0	1-0	0-3	3-0	1-0	2-0	2-1	1-2	0-0	2-4
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Were they signs of life? Nah, they got dunked on, then pulled apart; LAFC set up a shooting gallery. They got four points out of the last 15 available, and they even did that weird.

Next Games. v RSL (5/29), v Orlando (6/1), v Seattle (6/5). That’s three home games against three teams with different issues/weaknesses, plus Ignacio Piatti back in the fold. This is where they show who they are this season.

TORONTO FC, 5-6-2, 17 points, 23 gf, 22 ga, (3-3-2 home, 2-3-0 away)

Last 10 games: DLWLWLLDLL (2-6-2)

Last 10 at home: DWLLDL

Last 10 away: LWLL

D	L	W	L	W	L	L	D	L	L
v CHI	a SEA	v MIN	v POR	a ORL	a ATL	v PHI	v DC	a RSL	v SJ
2-2	2-3	4-3	1-2	2-0	0-2	1-2	0-0	0-3	1-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Their last four results at home should be enough to underscore just how reasonable the doubts surrounding TFC have become.; the record over their last 10 games is straight-up sobering. Missing Bradley and Pozuelo hurts, but the goals they allowed…way too easy. Watch Drew Moor. He knows.

Next Games. @ Vancouver (5/31), v SKC (6/7). “Also, worried about a disaster ahead of the break.” That’s from two weeks prior now, and I still stand by it.

SPORTING KC, 3-4-5, 14 points, 23 gf, 22 ga, (3-1-3 home, 0-3-2 away)

Last 10 games: DWDDLDLLDW (2-3-5)

Last 10 at home: WDDLDW

Last 10 away: DDLL

D	W	D	D	L	D	L	L	D	W
a COL	v MTL	a CIN	v NYR	a SJ	v NE	v ATL	a DC	v VAN	v SEA
1-1	7-1	1-1	2-2	1-4	4-4	0-3	0-1	1-1	3-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. A great win, but…does it really matter yet? Johnny Russell will not do this every week, bluntly, and look at the gap between their wins – and how that’s with four games at home. And Matt Besler limped off again to boot…

Next Games. v LA Galaxy (5/29), @ Houston (6/1), @ TFC (6/7). “The crazy thing is, all they have to do is wake up.” They’ve hit the snooze button with that result. If they get six points between now and the Gold Cup break, they return to the watch list.

COLUMBUS CREW SC, 5-9-1, 16 points, 14 gf, 22 ga, (4-3-1 home, 1-6-0 away)

Last 10 games: WLLLLLWLLL (2-8-0)

Last 10 at home: WLLWL

Last 10 away: LLLLL

W	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L
v NE	a MTL	v POR	v DC	a HOU	a DC	v LAG	v LAF	a MIN	a COL
1-0	0-1	1-3	0-1	0-2	1-3	3-1	0-3	0-1	2-3
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Caleb Porter’s deer-in-the-headlights post-game comments say something global, but, despite playing an even game, lllooooonnnngggggg runs of failure are built on flukes and fuck-ups, and Columbus simply cannot quit them.

Next Games. v NYCFC (6/1). “…the Crew will very likely hit the break on a major down.” Another prediction panned out. This team desperately needs to clear its collective head.

ORLANDO CITY SC, 4-7-3, 15 points, 19 gf, 21 ga, (3-4-1 home, 1-3-2 away)

Last 10 games: LWLWDLLLWL (3-6-1)

Last 10 at home: LWWLWL

Last 10 away: LDLL

L	W	L	W	D	L	L	L	W	L
v DC	v COL	a RSL	v VAN	a NYC	v TFC	a ATL	a SEA	v CIN	v LAG
1-2	4-3	1-2	1-0	1-1	2-0	0-1	1-2	5-1	0-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. When your DP chokes on a penalty kick, right? The Lions racked up chances and drove them game, but I offer one grasping moment as a symbol for this loss (ask yourself; why did that look so half-assed?), and Orlando’s season as a whole.

Next Games. @ Montreal (6/1). This loss also amounted to fucking up their best shot at redemption. Good thing Montreal plays with loose dice.

COLORADO RAPIDS, 2-9-2, 8 points, 20 gf, 32 ga, (1-4-2 home, 1-5-0 away)

Last 10 games: LLLLLLLLLWW (2-8-0)

Last 10 at home: LLLLW

Last 10 away: LLLLW

L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W
a FCD	v HOU	a ORL	v DC	a CHI	a ATL	v VAN	v RSL	a LAG	v CLB
1-2	1-4	3-4	2-3	4-1	0-1	2-3	2-3	1-0	3-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. A glorious win – and Nicolas Mezquida deserves celebration/freak-out of Week 13 – but it’s vital to acknowledge just how tenuous this was; Columbus got more looks than the highlights suggested. For Colorado, though, Jonathan Lewis looks like an addition to their modest collection of good pieces.

Next Game: @ Philly (5/29), v Cincinnati (6/1), v Minnesota (6/8). “The Columbus game is one to watch.” And now we have part of the answer. “If they’ve really found their feet, the Rapids will get six points out of those home games.” That leaves watching Cincy and the Loons.

NEW ENGLAND REVS, 3-8-4, 13 points, 15 gf, 32 ga, (3-4-1 home, 0-4-3 away)

Last 10 games: LLWLDLLWDD (2-5-3)

Last 10 at home: LWLWD

Last 10 away: LDLLD

L	L	W	L	D	L	L	W	D	D
a CLB	v ATL	v NYR	v MTL	a SKC	a PHI	a CHI	v SJ	a MTL	v DC
0-1	0-2	1-0	0-3-	4-4	1-6	0-5	3-1	0-0	1-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. You have to squint to see it, but the Revs started in a better direction after getting rid of Brad Friedel. They scored after going down a player – they lost their starting ‘keeper and his replacement had to stand immediately tall – and came close to winning. New kids (e.g., Tajon Buchanan and Brandon Bye) showing well, and Cristian Penilla is waking up.

Next Games. @ LA Galaxy (6/2). As much as the Revs could use a win, file that game under doable, but also unlikely.

FC CINCINNATI, 3-9-2, 11 points, 11 gf, 25 ga, (2-3-1 home, 1-6-1 away)

Last 10 games: LDLLLLLWLL (1-8-1)

Last 10 at home: LDLWL

Last 10 away: LLLLL

L	D	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L
v PHI	v SKC	a LAF	v RSL	a NYR	a PHI	a SJ	v MTL	a ORL	v NYR
0-2	1-1	0-2	0-3	0-1	0-2	0-1	2-1	1-5	0-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. It’s as bad as it looks and, as argued in my extended notes, I don’t see it going away soon. They have an optimal line-up, and I think that’s their ceiling. And it’s damned low.

Next Games. @ Colorado (6/1), @ NYCFC (6/6). With the road as cruel as it has been, I give Cincy no chance in that second game. Which means they need to get something out of that first one.

Right. That’s my crystal ball spit-shined as clean as I can get it…yeah, I’ve always been a fraud…