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| Let's lean all the way in... |
Shortly before First Kick 2022, I wrote a couple post in which I set expectations for every team in Major League Soccer – one in January, aka, before most teams had done shit, and another in February that talked about which teams I thought would be competitive, or had taken good steps to get there...which I'm not sure I ever posted...shit. At any rate, two weeks before America’s top-flight, male domestic league nods off for a couple of weeks (for the most part), I took what I’d internalized based on what I’d seen to that point to project where I thought those same teams would be as of…well, today, basically, a thought process that amounted to resetting expectations.
With a solid majority of teams having 14 games behind them – which, for those teams, means they have 20 games ahead – and with some time off for every team in MLS and/or time/space to recalibrate, tonight felt like a good time to run all the theories in those posts against what's happened so far. Down below, and in alphabetical order, and with (I think) no links (success!), I’m going to look back at my preseason expectations – and, here, I pulled notes from that conceivably-unposted February post where I had them, and ran with the January notes where I didn’t, and if/when you see quotes around anything, I’m pulling it directly from those posts, the rest is paraphrasing – and then revisit what I thought going into the final two-to-four games going into the June break (dated May 16, 2022, for reference), to try to see which teams are meeting expectations, which have tripped some varying miles short thereof.
That’s it for the preamble. Hey, ho, let’s go…
Atlanta United FC
Preseason Theory
“I’m going to mentally downgrade them out of spite,” but I believe I wrote that before Thiago Andrade showed up…then again, I probably read him as a like-for-like replacement for Ezequiel Barco whenever he arrived.
Pre-June Break Projection
“So…more of the same, then?” (@ NSH, v CLB)
Updated Theory
Atlanta got exactly one point from those two games and they’re two points below the playoff line in the Eastern Conference. As of now, I’d put their ceiling at one side or the other of the playoff line – i.e., a combination of needing to clean up their own backyard and needing some stumbles to come down from above.
Austin FC
Preseason Theory
N/A, not enough data. They’d only played one season, didn’t do so hot, didn’t go nuts with the upgrades, which felt like a tiny ball of clay with which to work.
Pre-June Break Projection
“I’m fully expecting a stall, so anything less will impress me.” (@ LAFC, v ORL, @ LAG)
Updated Theory
And, four points from that run seems pretty damn good. They remain a tough team to read, but they’re also just seven points under their total points for 2021, they have a six-point cushion on no less than five teams one would expect to beat them, whether based on history or the 2021 season (e.g., Nashville, Minnesota, Colorado, Seattle, and Portland), and yet there they are at fourth place, what looks like a good system in place, and 20 games still to play. Austin stays up if even…two of the under-achieving teams in parenthesis immediately above keeps under-achieving…and, goddamn you, don’t you dare check my math. If I see so much as one fucking permutation…
Charlotte FC
Preseason Theory
“N/A, literally no data.” Still feels apt.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Feels like three points to me…” (v VAN, @ SEA)
Updated Theory
Yep. I think it’s safe to say Charlotte has succeeded their coach’s and everyone else’s expectations to this point. Worst case, the data says they won’t embarrass themselves. Best case remains up in the air. [UPDATE: Charlotte canned their head coach, wherefore I cannot say.]
Chicago Fire FC
Preseason Theory
Damn my eyes, I placed them among the “arguably upgraded” and called additions like Xherdan Shaqiri, Kacper Przybylko, plus some promising young players “serious shit.” I pushed back against that exuberance by calling “betting on Chicago like going all-in on one number in roulette.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“The fact the Red Bulls haven’t won at home is the only bright spot in all of that.” (@ RBNY, @ NYC, @ TOR)
Updated Theory
The fact they got one point at Red Bull, and lost the next two games with just two goals scored, both against a slightly-less helpless Toronto team points to another season of suffering for a fan-base that has, by now, done penance for the sins of three rotten teams and four local billionaires.
FC Cincinnati
Preseason Theory
I called them “a very expensive punch-line,” and continued with, “Not much to explain. Domestic soccer’s equivalent of throwing darts blindfolded and lighting money on fire.” That should have read “while lighting money on fire,” but we’re none of us perfect.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Call three points good, four points great, and two points respectable…though I’d really dig a whole ‘Fortress Tickle’ thing.” (v NE, @ MTL)
Updated Theory
I didn’t expect a damn thing from Cincinnati, didn’t rate their existing players, didn’t think their (then-)new acquisitions (John Nelson, Junior Moreno, Ian Murphy) could turn around their dismal past. Cincinnati got bupkiss from the two games going into the stretch, but they also scored a lot of goals while also letting in a bunch against two teams playing…if for varying reasons and to varying degrees, the same model they are. To riff a little here (I embrace FC Cincinnati as my step-team in the spirit of a stepfather (which I am)), I’m a little wary of what I read as a choice to give up points now in order to gain success later. That’s to say, Cincy appears to have prioritized sorting out how to attack over the dark arts of how not to lose games. I respect that choice and see the upside, even as I'm lightly shitting myself in the back-seat.
Colorado Rapids
Preseason Theory
I called them competitive, good, and with a “solid foundation” in midfield. I expected them to punch above their weight in salary in a happy continuation of their 2021.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Calling that run at 4-6 points. Less than three would worry me.” (@ SKC, v SEA, v NSH)
Updated Theory
Colorado found the middle space in that prediction as if aiming for it. And they’re in a three-way tie for the most-minimally competent teams in the Western Conference as a result. Still good at home (5-1-2) and crappy on the road (0-5-1) as they’ve been for a couple seasons now, but do note they’ve played two more games at home. And that Nashville just kicked their asses in Commerce City (nice old tyme Western vibe on that name).
Columbus Crew SC
Preseason Theory
I expected a turn-around, I expected their new additions – e.g., Yaw Yeboah and Milos Degenek (and who the fuck is that guy?) – to help with said turn-around.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Another pretty good bet for a near-term stall…” (v LAFC, @ ATL)
Updated Theory
I pegged them to shoot over a low bar going into the season and, so far, they’ve hit that mark. They've also joined the pack that seems primed to brawl in the space between, expansively, fourth and eleventh in the East. To Columbus’ credit, they followed a predictable home loss to LAFC with an unpredictable home win away to Atlanta. If there’s a theory to how I read the Eastern Conference, I just paraphrased it.
DC United
Preseason Theory
I figured Brad Smith would plug the hole left by Kevin Paredes with energy if nothing else and took the pedigree of Taxi Fountas and Michael Estrada on faith. As such, I ranked them among the “perhaps upgraded.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“Toronto should give ‘em some relief, and the game against Red Bull should be a bruiser, but that’s still a tough run.” (v NYC, v TFC, @ RBNY)
Updated Theory
Toronto gave only a pittance of relief, and DC lost the other two games, and by a margin of 6 goals allowed to one goal scored. My read was more optimistic than the actual outcome. Despite seeing some good efforts and a couple results, the near-term future doesn't look great for DC. No shades required.
FC Dallas
Preseason Theory
Fretted about the defense a bit, and with the departure of Ryan Hollingshead (LAFC) as a hook, but also thought they scored a good player in Marco Farfan and expected good things from a “high work-rate veteran” like Paul Arriola. Ranked them among the “perhaps upgraded.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“Just noticed that Dallas has played more games at home than away - and this win made the their road record look less like a cold turd in the hand - but those are both gettable road games. Another good test.” (@ VAN, v MIN, @ ORL, as for what that means…your guess is good as mine, honestly.)
Updated Theory
Despite dropping the dumbest points from those games (Dallas beat Orlando away 3-1, and lost the other two) they’re still second in the West, they still have a solid home record (5-1-1, the majority against good/TCOB (taking care of business) teams, plus they’ve got a seven-point cushion between them and the playoff line. Things could fall apart, sure, but has put good distance between themselves and perdition.
Houston Dynamo FC
Preseason Theory
“My Impression of Their 2021:They pushed money-ball to a self-destructive extreme.” And I wasn’t impressed by any of the players they signed (to that point) or the arrival of Paolo Nagamura.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Anything north of three points will convince me I misjudged them.” (v SEA, @ LAG, @ RSL)
Updated Theory
And…the Dynamo got the three points and nothing more. And yet, they’re still hanging on the top-side of that three-way tie for 7th in the Western Conference (along with Minnesota and Colorado), and they’ve got some genuinely playoff-worthy wins this season – e.g., 2-0 over Nashville at home an 3-0 over the Galaxy at home. That doesn't mean I'd up-sell Houston at this point, but I wouldn't write them off either.
Sporting Kansas City
Preseason Theory
I called them “a whole and good team” (shit), but noted they might struggle without the semi-talismanic Alan Pulido.
Pre-June Break Projection
“If SKC can’t get five points from this stretch, start looking for the fork.” (v COL, @ SJ, v VAN)
Updated Theory
The surprise win over Colorado (but was it?) doesn’t change the fact that Kansas City has straight-up murdered my theory they’d be competent in 2022. Sure, they’re only five points from clean over the playoff line, but it's not like the teams above them are gonna stop running; moreover, any team worth a shit gets at least four points from that run. The fact they just lost to Vancouver suggests they'd do best to starting deciding arrangements in the Western Conference basement.
Los Angeles Galaxy
Preseason Theory
Generally believed they didn’t do much besides sign Douglas Costa – which I thought would matter – worried about the defense, and figured they’d only last as long as they kept Chicharito healthy…and yet I ranked them among the “perhaps upgraded.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“the ‘good team/bad day’ thing gets an immediate test. Anything less than four points and I’ve got questions.” (@ MIN, v HOU, v ATX)
Updated Theory
As much as it kind of gets lost in…I don’t know, their reputation(?), the Galaxy picked up just four points from a stretch where five or more fits their sense of themselves. Back in reality, they've hit my expectations for them so far this season.
Los Angeles FC
Preseason Theory
I expected “the dread ‘transition’ season for them,” and piled on with “missing the playoffs was the defining visual for the wheels finally coming off. It was like seeing a bully get a wedgie.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“I’d be surprised by anything under 5 points.” (v ATX, @ CLB, v SJ)
Updated Theory
An oddball home loss against Austin aside, LAFC hit that mark. And, as noted in the “Preseason Theory,” I did not see this coming. Even to the extent they owe to NYCFC’s CCL run, LAFC is the best team in MLS right now. And they’re hitting that mark both on the road and at home, and with a non-dominant Carlos Vela.
Inter Miami CF
Preseason Theory
“Part of me doesn’t believe they really exist.” C’mon. That’s a catty masterpiece.
Pre-June Break Projection
“They’re currently 2nd to last in the East. Don’t see that changing much, and/or for the better.” (@ PHI, v RBNY, v POR)
Updated Theory
So, yeah, Miami got seven points of nine out of that run. And that lifted them to sole possession of 7th in the Western Conference. Again, those games did. Miami doesn’t have a ton of wins this season – in fact, and literally, half the teams in the league have more of them – but they have punched some now-free points out of teams they should not have. The more points they get out of games they should (i.e., against the semi-flexible galaxy of weaker teams), the more Phil Neville looks like a good bet/antidote to their roster fuck-ups.
Minnesota United FC
Preseason Theory
“I think of Minnesota as one of those ugly, organized teams that grinds out results and reaches the playoffs, where they confront the limits of the method.” Then I followed with: “I suspect their 2021 season [will revive] the above observation."
Pre-June Break Projection
“Certainly not easy, and Minnesota has mostly beaten shaky teams at home, so…yeah, I’d get nervous were I them, or their fans.” (v LAG, @ FCD, v NYC)
Updated Theory
I’d call four points from that stretch a good response to the pessimism of the note. Between everything above and below them, Minnesota still seems very much in it.
Club du Foot Montreal
Preseason Theory
“Mostly that MLS’s in-house pundits kept trying to sell me on them, and I kept refusing to buy.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“They don’t need to get all the points, but, if they do…” (@ NSH, v RSL, v CIN)
Updated Theory
Montreal…did not get all those points. Worse, they dropped three dumb ones against RSL and based on what I watched, deservedly so. That said, the “in-house pundits” I pissed on in January look smarter than I do right now. Montreal's definitely competitive. Fragile, but competitive.
Nashville SC
Preseason Theory
I saw good bones, a helpful upgrade in the attack during 2021, and thought they had a decent succession plan for Dax McCarty in Sean Davis. I expected good things, basically.
Pre-June Break Projection
I assumed they’d drop points at Colorado, which made the home games “as close to must-win as mid-season MLS gets.” (v MTL, v ATL, @ COL)
Updated Theory
They didn’t answer in the way I expected – e.g., they stripped three points out of Commerce City and from the starting whistle - but Nashville answered all the same. After a fairly protracted road-trip/general struggle, Nashville’s in it, and with four points to spare.
New England Revolution
Preseason Theory
I saw Jozy Altidore and Omar Gonzalez as “a couple of high-end rejects” and plainly stated that I’d rather have Tajon Buchanan than Sebastian Lletget. I also thought Matt Turner’s departure could hurt a bit, though that hasn’t even happened yet.
Pre-June Break Projection
“I can see them getting less three. Also, the Revs haven’t won on the road…” (@ CIN, v PHI)
Updated Theory
The Revs got four points out of that, three where last year’s team should have (at Cincy), but then pissed away two points through one of the “high-end rejects” noted above in a game that could have got them back on track, if only mentally. At the same time, they rejoined the pack chasing the playoff line – and they’ve got a decent chance of gaining some more ground over the next 10 games. I wouldn’t write them off yet, especially not given the stable Saragosa Sea-esque eddy in the middle of the East.
New York Red Bulls
Preseason Theory
I put a lot of faith in their defensive record and a return to their energy-drink methods. I also saw promise in Luquinhas and them picking up Lewis Morgan.
Pre-June Break Projection
“I’d call that a fair chance of topping the East by the end of May.” (v CHI, @ MIA, v DC)
Updated Theory
A solid hammering of DC at home patched up what I still track as a three-game prat-fall, but they’re still fourth in the East and just three points off the pace. I've cooled on this team, but still expect to see them on the Eastern side of the post-season.
New York City FC
Preseason Theory
I called them solid, admitted I resented them for beating the Portland Timbers in 2021 MLS Cup, but wondered what would happen after they lost Taty Castellanos and whether Maxi Moralez had another season in those wee legs.
Pre-June Break Projection
“If they roll through that - e.g., six points or better, which isn’t beyond them - get nervous.” (@ DC, v CHI, @ MIN)
Updated Theory
NYC swept all of those games. The margins didn’t impress like they did in April, but NYCFC didn’t allow a goal throughout. No matter how unimpressive you find each of those teams, a perfect run is a perfect run. They haven’t lost a step yet…but they also haven’t lost Taty (et. al.) yet.
Orlando City SC
Preseason Theory
Blessed their spine (i.e., viewed it as an asset) and thought they did the right thing in terms of turnover - e.g., ditching Nani, Daryl Dike, and Chris Mueller and adding Facundo Torres, Ercan Kara, and Cesar Araujo.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Tough, but Orlando has a fair shot at four points or better.” (@ ATX, v FCD)
Updated Theory
And they pissed it away and picked up just one point from that – plus Dallas blew them out. At this point, I expect Orlando to keep wins ahead of losses by the narrowest of margins, and for an unhealthy number of those losses to be, for lack of a better word, dumb. Competing (and laboring) more than winning, basically. That said, they should get a bump from their near-term schedule (i.e., their next 10 games).
Philadelphia Union
Preseason Theory
Accepted they might have replaced Jamiro Monteiro and Kacper Przybylko with Julian Carranza(? what?) and Mikael Uhre), but expected another solid season from the team with the theme (e.g., a tactical theory and youth development to die for…though in fairness, that last bit is sub-text).
Pre-June Break Projection
“I don’t even want to think about what happens when they play Portland, but that strikes me as a four point stretch for my understanding of Philly.” (v MIA, @ POR, @ NE)
Updated Theory
Hey-oh, they picked up five points. I continue to expect Philly to achieve more than they succeed...if that makes sense. If not, I expect them to put the fear of…a very stern principal into every team they face, but without expecting them to make either grade (aka, win either Cup or Shield).
With a solid majority of teams having 14 games behind them – which, for those teams, means they have 20 games ahead – and with some time off for every team in MLS and/or time/space to recalibrate, tonight felt like a good time to run all the theories in those posts against what's happened so far. Down below, and in alphabetical order, and with (I think) no links (success!), I’m going to look back at my preseason expectations – and, here, I pulled notes from that conceivably-unposted February post where I had them, and ran with the January notes where I didn’t, and if/when you see quotes around anything, I’m pulling it directly from those posts, the rest is paraphrasing – and then revisit what I thought going into the final two-to-four games going into the June break (dated May 16, 2022, for reference), to try to see which teams are meeting expectations, which have tripped some varying miles short thereof.
That’s it for the preamble. Hey, ho, let’s go…
Atlanta United FC
Preseason Theory
“I’m going to mentally downgrade them out of spite,” but I believe I wrote that before Thiago Andrade showed up…then again, I probably read him as a like-for-like replacement for Ezequiel Barco whenever he arrived.
Pre-June Break Projection
“So…more of the same, then?” (@ NSH, v CLB)
Updated Theory
Atlanta got exactly one point from those two games and they’re two points below the playoff line in the Eastern Conference. As of now, I’d put their ceiling at one side or the other of the playoff line – i.e., a combination of needing to clean up their own backyard and needing some stumbles to come down from above.
Austin FC
Preseason Theory
N/A, not enough data. They’d only played one season, didn’t do so hot, didn’t go nuts with the upgrades, which felt like a tiny ball of clay with which to work.
Pre-June Break Projection
“I’m fully expecting a stall, so anything less will impress me.” (@ LAFC, v ORL, @ LAG)
Updated Theory
And, four points from that run seems pretty damn good. They remain a tough team to read, but they’re also just seven points under their total points for 2021, they have a six-point cushion on no less than five teams one would expect to beat them, whether based on history or the 2021 season (e.g., Nashville, Minnesota, Colorado, Seattle, and Portland), and yet there they are at fourth place, what looks like a good system in place, and 20 games still to play. Austin stays up if even…two of the under-achieving teams in parenthesis immediately above keeps under-achieving…and, goddamn you, don’t you dare check my math. If I see so much as one fucking permutation…
Charlotte FC
Preseason Theory
“N/A, literally no data.” Still feels apt.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Feels like three points to me…” (v VAN, @ SEA)
Updated Theory
Yep. I think it’s safe to say Charlotte has succeeded their coach’s and everyone else’s expectations to this point. Worst case, the data says they won’t embarrass themselves. Best case remains up in the air. [UPDATE: Charlotte canned their head coach, wherefore I cannot say.]
Chicago Fire FC
Preseason Theory
Damn my eyes, I placed them among the “arguably upgraded” and called additions like Xherdan Shaqiri, Kacper Przybylko, plus some promising young players “serious shit.” I pushed back against that exuberance by calling “betting on Chicago like going all-in on one number in roulette.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“The fact the Red Bulls haven’t won at home is the only bright spot in all of that.” (@ RBNY, @ NYC, @ TOR)
Updated Theory
The fact they got one point at Red Bull, and lost the next two games with just two goals scored, both against a slightly-less helpless Toronto team points to another season of suffering for a fan-base that has, by now, done penance for the sins of three rotten teams and four local billionaires.
FC Cincinnati
Preseason Theory
I called them “a very expensive punch-line,” and continued with, “Not much to explain. Domestic soccer’s equivalent of throwing darts blindfolded and lighting money on fire.” That should have read “while lighting money on fire,” but we’re none of us perfect.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Call three points good, four points great, and two points respectable…though I’d really dig a whole ‘Fortress Tickle’ thing.” (v NE, @ MTL)
Updated Theory
I didn’t expect a damn thing from Cincinnati, didn’t rate their existing players, didn’t think their (then-)new acquisitions (John Nelson, Junior Moreno, Ian Murphy) could turn around their dismal past. Cincinnati got bupkiss from the two games going into the stretch, but they also scored a lot of goals while also letting in a bunch against two teams playing…if for varying reasons and to varying degrees, the same model they are. To riff a little here (I embrace FC Cincinnati as my step-team in the spirit of a stepfather (which I am)), I’m a little wary of what I read as a choice to give up points now in order to gain success later. That’s to say, Cincy appears to have prioritized sorting out how to attack over the dark arts of how not to lose games. I respect that choice and see the upside, even as I'm lightly shitting myself in the back-seat.
Colorado Rapids
Preseason Theory
I called them competitive, good, and with a “solid foundation” in midfield. I expected them to punch above their weight in salary in a happy continuation of their 2021.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Calling that run at 4-6 points. Less than three would worry me.” (@ SKC, v SEA, v NSH)
Updated Theory
Colorado found the middle space in that prediction as if aiming for it. And they’re in a three-way tie for the most-minimally competent teams in the Western Conference as a result. Still good at home (5-1-2) and crappy on the road (0-5-1) as they’ve been for a couple seasons now, but do note they’ve played two more games at home. And that Nashville just kicked their asses in Commerce City (nice old tyme Western vibe on that name).
Columbus Crew SC
Preseason Theory
I expected a turn-around, I expected their new additions – e.g., Yaw Yeboah and Milos Degenek (and who the fuck is that guy?) – to help with said turn-around.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Another pretty good bet for a near-term stall…” (v LAFC, @ ATL)
Updated Theory
I pegged them to shoot over a low bar going into the season and, so far, they’ve hit that mark. They've also joined the pack that seems primed to brawl in the space between, expansively, fourth and eleventh in the East. To Columbus’ credit, they followed a predictable home loss to LAFC with an unpredictable home win away to Atlanta. If there’s a theory to how I read the Eastern Conference, I just paraphrased it.
DC United
Preseason Theory
I figured Brad Smith would plug the hole left by Kevin Paredes with energy if nothing else and took the pedigree of Taxi Fountas and Michael Estrada on faith. As such, I ranked them among the “perhaps upgraded.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“Toronto should give ‘em some relief, and the game against Red Bull should be a bruiser, but that’s still a tough run.” (v NYC, v TFC, @ RBNY)
Updated Theory
Toronto gave only a pittance of relief, and DC lost the other two games, and by a margin of 6 goals allowed to one goal scored. My read was more optimistic than the actual outcome. Despite seeing some good efforts and a couple results, the near-term future doesn't look great for DC. No shades required.
FC Dallas
Preseason Theory
Fretted about the defense a bit, and with the departure of Ryan Hollingshead (LAFC) as a hook, but also thought they scored a good player in Marco Farfan and expected good things from a “high work-rate veteran” like Paul Arriola. Ranked them among the “perhaps upgraded.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“Just noticed that Dallas has played more games at home than away - and this win made the their road record look less like a cold turd in the hand - but those are both gettable road games. Another good test.” (@ VAN, v MIN, @ ORL, as for what that means…your guess is good as mine, honestly.)
Updated Theory
Despite dropping the dumbest points from those games (Dallas beat Orlando away 3-1, and lost the other two) they’re still second in the West, they still have a solid home record (5-1-1, the majority against good/TCOB (taking care of business) teams, plus they’ve got a seven-point cushion between them and the playoff line. Things could fall apart, sure, but has put good distance between themselves and perdition.
Houston Dynamo FC
Preseason Theory
“My Impression of Their 2021:They pushed money-ball to a self-destructive extreme.” And I wasn’t impressed by any of the players they signed (to that point) or the arrival of Paolo Nagamura.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Anything north of three points will convince me I misjudged them.” (v SEA, @ LAG, @ RSL)
Updated Theory
And…the Dynamo got the three points and nothing more. And yet, they’re still hanging on the top-side of that three-way tie for 7th in the Western Conference (along with Minnesota and Colorado), and they’ve got some genuinely playoff-worthy wins this season – e.g., 2-0 over Nashville at home an 3-0 over the Galaxy at home. That doesn't mean I'd up-sell Houston at this point, but I wouldn't write them off either.
Sporting Kansas City
Preseason Theory
I called them “a whole and good team” (shit), but noted they might struggle without the semi-talismanic Alan Pulido.
Pre-June Break Projection
“If SKC can’t get five points from this stretch, start looking for the fork.” (v COL, @ SJ, v VAN)
Updated Theory
The surprise win over Colorado (but was it?) doesn’t change the fact that Kansas City has straight-up murdered my theory they’d be competent in 2022. Sure, they’re only five points from clean over the playoff line, but it's not like the teams above them are gonna stop running; moreover, any team worth a shit gets at least four points from that run. The fact they just lost to Vancouver suggests they'd do best to starting deciding arrangements in the Western Conference basement.
Los Angeles Galaxy
Preseason Theory
Generally believed they didn’t do much besides sign Douglas Costa – which I thought would matter – worried about the defense, and figured they’d only last as long as they kept Chicharito healthy…and yet I ranked them among the “perhaps upgraded.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“the ‘good team/bad day’ thing gets an immediate test. Anything less than four points and I’ve got questions.” (@ MIN, v HOU, v ATX)
Updated Theory
As much as it kind of gets lost in…I don’t know, their reputation(?), the Galaxy picked up just four points from a stretch where five or more fits their sense of themselves. Back in reality, they've hit my expectations for them so far this season.
Los Angeles FC
Preseason Theory
I expected “the dread ‘transition’ season for them,” and piled on with “missing the playoffs was the defining visual for the wheels finally coming off. It was like seeing a bully get a wedgie.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“I’d be surprised by anything under 5 points.” (v ATX, @ CLB, v SJ)
Updated Theory
An oddball home loss against Austin aside, LAFC hit that mark. And, as noted in the “Preseason Theory,” I did not see this coming. Even to the extent they owe to NYCFC’s CCL run, LAFC is the best team in MLS right now. And they’re hitting that mark both on the road and at home, and with a non-dominant Carlos Vela.
Inter Miami CF
Preseason Theory
“Part of me doesn’t believe they really exist.” C’mon. That’s a catty masterpiece.
Pre-June Break Projection
“They’re currently 2nd to last in the East. Don’t see that changing much, and/or for the better.” (@ PHI, v RBNY, v POR)
Updated Theory
So, yeah, Miami got seven points of nine out of that run. And that lifted them to sole possession of 7th in the Western Conference. Again, those games did. Miami doesn’t have a ton of wins this season – in fact, and literally, half the teams in the league have more of them – but they have punched some now-free points out of teams they should not have. The more points they get out of games they should (i.e., against the semi-flexible galaxy of weaker teams), the more Phil Neville looks like a good bet/antidote to their roster fuck-ups.
Minnesota United FC
Preseason Theory
“I think of Minnesota as one of those ugly, organized teams that grinds out results and reaches the playoffs, where they confront the limits of the method.” Then I followed with: “I suspect their 2021 season [will revive] the above observation."
Pre-June Break Projection
“Certainly not easy, and Minnesota has mostly beaten shaky teams at home, so…yeah, I’d get nervous were I them, or their fans.” (v LAG, @ FCD, v NYC)
Updated Theory
I’d call four points from that stretch a good response to the pessimism of the note. Between everything above and below them, Minnesota still seems very much in it.
Club du Foot Montreal
Preseason Theory
“Mostly that MLS’s in-house pundits kept trying to sell me on them, and I kept refusing to buy.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“They don’t need to get all the points, but, if they do…” (@ NSH, v RSL, v CIN)
Updated Theory
Montreal…did not get all those points. Worse, they dropped three dumb ones against RSL and based on what I watched, deservedly so. That said, the “in-house pundits” I pissed on in January look smarter than I do right now. Montreal's definitely competitive. Fragile, but competitive.
Nashville SC
Preseason Theory
I saw good bones, a helpful upgrade in the attack during 2021, and thought they had a decent succession plan for Dax McCarty in Sean Davis. I expected good things, basically.
Pre-June Break Projection
I assumed they’d drop points at Colorado, which made the home games “as close to must-win as mid-season MLS gets.” (v MTL, v ATL, @ COL)
Updated Theory
They didn’t answer in the way I expected – e.g., they stripped three points out of Commerce City and from the starting whistle - but Nashville answered all the same. After a fairly protracted road-trip/general struggle, Nashville’s in it, and with four points to spare.
New England Revolution
Preseason Theory
I saw Jozy Altidore and Omar Gonzalez as “a couple of high-end rejects” and plainly stated that I’d rather have Tajon Buchanan than Sebastian Lletget. I also thought Matt Turner’s departure could hurt a bit, though that hasn’t even happened yet.
Pre-June Break Projection
“I can see them getting less three. Also, the Revs haven’t won on the road…” (@ CIN, v PHI)
Updated Theory
The Revs got four points out of that, three where last year’s team should have (at Cincy), but then pissed away two points through one of the “high-end rejects” noted above in a game that could have got them back on track, if only mentally. At the same time, they rejoined the pack chasing the playoff line – and they’ve got a decent chance of gaining some more ground over the next 10 games. I wouldn’t write them off yet, especially not given the stable Saragosa Sea-esque eddy in the middle of the East.
New York Red Bulls
Preseason Theory
I put a lot of faith in their defensive record and a return to their energy-drink methods. I also saw promise in Luquinhas and them picking up Lewis Morgan.
Pre-June Break Projection
“I’d call that a fair chance of topping the East by the end of May.” (v CHI, @ MIA, v DC)
Updated Theory
A solid hammering of DC at home patched up what I still track as a three-game prat-fall, but they’re still fourth in the East and just three points off the pace. I've cooled on this team, but still expect to see them on the Eastern side of the post-season.
New York City FC
Preseason Theory
I called them solid, admitted I resented them for beating the Portland Timbers in 2021 MLS Cup, but wondered what would happen after they lost Taty Castellanos and whether Maxi Moralez had another season in those wee legs.
Pre-June Break Projection
“If they roll through that - e.g., six points or better, which isn’t beyond them - get nervous.” (@ DC, v CHI, @ MIN)
Updated Theory
NYC swept all of those games. The margins didn’t impress like they did in April, but NYCFC didn’t allow a goal throughout. No matter how unimpressive you find each of those teams, a perfect run is a perfect run. They haven’t lost a step yet…but they also haven’t lost Taty (et. al.) yet.
Orlando City SC
Preseason Theory
Blessed their spine (i.e., viewed it as an asset) and thought they did the right thing in terms of turnover - e.g., ditching Nani, Daryl Dike, and Chris Mueller and adding Facundo Torres, Ercan Kara, and Cesar Araujo.
Pre-June Break Projection
“Tough, but Orlando has a fair shot at four points or better.” (@ ATX, v FCD)
Updated Theory
And they pissed it away and picked up just one point from that – plus Dallas blew them out. At this point, I expect Orlando to keep wins ahead of losses by the narrowest of margins, and for an unhealthy number of those losses to be, for lack of a better word, dumb. Competing (and laboring) more than winning, basically. That said, they should get a bump from their near-term schedule (i.e., their next 10 games).
Philadelphia Union
Preseason Theory
Accepted they might have replaced Jamiro Monteiro and Kacper Przybylko with Julian Carranza(? what?) and Mikael Uhre), but expected another solid season from the team with the theme (e.g., a tactical theory and youth development to die for…though in fairness, that last bit is sub-text).
Pre-June Break Projection
“I don’t even want to think about what happens when they play Portland, but that strikes me as a four point stretch for my understanding of Philly.” (v MIA, @ POR, @ NE)
Updated Theory
Hey-oh, they picked up five points. I continue to expect Philly to achieve more than they succeed...if that makes sense. If not, I expect them to put the fear of…a very stern principal into every team they face, but without expecting them to make either grade (aka, win either Cup or Shield).
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| I do feel this way... |
Portland Timbers
Preseason Theory
Suffice to say I was disturbingly prescient about the team I love most/follow closest. For good and ill.
Pre-June Break Projection
“I want to see five point out of that, no less…”
Updated Theory
And I’m not “mama-birding” the same thoughts on the same problems for the 10th time for the same reason. That I could accurately describe what wouldn’t work before the season even kicked off very clearly suggests that their problems are obvious, even if the solutions to those problems are not. The main questions now are, how serious are they, and is there a path to resolving them in 2022?
Real Salt Lake
Preseason Theory
“Punched at least two classes above their weight against every other team but the Timbers [last season]. Weird shit, man…” Followed by an acknowledgment of their success with “random DPs,” with Damir Kreilach and the later-departed Albert Rusnak for reference.
Pre-June Break Projection
“If that’s not four points or more…” (@MTL, v HOU, @ VAN)
Updated Theory
They still have Vancouver away between now and the resumption of the MLS regular season in mid-June 18, but RSL already yanked six points from the first two games noted above and, yeah, I’ve given up on predicting this team. They’re going to do what they do, which, for the time being, is pretty damn well.
San Jose Earthquakes
Preseason Theory
“Call it an international version of Money-Ball, a feeble attempt to keep up without a methodology or committing the resources.” That, with what I figured would be a better defense.
Pre-June Break Projection
I thought they’d beat SKC and lose to the Timbers, and ended with “yeah, they’re at risk of sinking.” (v POR, v SKC, @ LAFC)
Updated Theory
First, the Timbers suck, maybe right now, maybe longer, but San Jose avoided of the above-mentioned risk of sinking, even they stumbled against SKC. They lost at LAFC, but narrowly, they have one of the best forwards in MLS right now in Jeremey Ebobisse (take a bow, Portland Timbers FO), and they’re presently filling in the blanks of my theory on how the Timbers might miss the 2022 playoffs.
Seattle Sounders FC
Preseason Theory
Noted their spot in the three-way tie for the best defense in 2021, cautioned they may have let go more than they thought with Brad Smith (DC United) and Shane O’Neil (Toronto FC), but also argued the addition of Albert Rusnak “gives an already strong team another dimension."
Pre-June Break Projection
“The odds say they’ll ship at least two points at Colorado, but they should be good for four points or better out of that stretch…” (@ HOU, @ COL, v CLT)
Updated Theory
Exactly as foreseen, only with six points earned and on fewer goals. Moreover, they look like your better than average bet of going on a genuine, bona-fide tear over their next 10 games. The race to the top of the West will not be a coronation. And I feel the Supporters’ Shield moving East this season.
Toronto FC
Preseason Theory
Thought their upgrades in defense – e.g., adding Shane O’Neill and Carlos Salcedo – would buy them time/points until Lorenzo Insigne arrives this summer. Again, ranked them among the “perhaps improved.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“That’s a decent chance for a recovery. Let’s see what they make of it.” (@ DC, v CHI)
Updated Theory
Mostly good things, but I wouldn't take Toronto seriously yet. Sure, they did get four points for that run and just four points separating them from 19 points, aka, a clean step over the playoff line. I’m willing to throw them in the mix for the 2022 Eastern Conference mid-table melee, sponsored by Wendy’s, at this point. Not only is the East messy, I’m not even sure how far the schmutz sprawls.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Preseason Theory
“The worst Cascadia team. No offense,” followed with “They could sign Pele-Jesus and I’d still dump on their chances of going anywhere meaningful. I also see them as a boring team.”
Pre-June Break Projection
I assumed they would eat shit across the board, “even against SKC.” (v FCD, @ CLT, @ SKC, v RSL)
Updated Theory
It feels wise to wait to say what happens when the ‘Caps host RSL on June 4, but, personal aesthetic preferences aside, Vancouver just picked up some tough points (i.e., home win over Dallas), plus some points they could (away to SKC) for a total of six against Western rivals. Again, the Timbers need to wake the fuck up.
If I missed a team, I apologize, but I think I’ve given patiently half-observed opinions on them all. Have at it, whether in the comments or twitter.
Preseason Theory
Suffice to say I was disturbingly prescient about the team I love most/follow closest. For good and ill.
Pre-June Break Projection
“I want to see five point out of that, no less…”
Updated Theory
And I’m not “mama-birding” the same thoughts on the same problems for the 10th time for the same reason. That I could accurately describe what wouldn’t work before the season even kicked off very clearly suggests that their problems are obvious, even if the solutions to those problems are not. The main questions now are, how serious are they, and is there a path to resolving them in 2022?
Real Salt Lake
Preseason Theory
“Punched at least two classes above their weight against every other team but the Timbers [last season]. Weird shit, man…” Followed by an acknowledgment of their success with “random DPs,” with Damir Kreilach and the later-departed Albert Rusnak for reference.
Pre-June Break Projection
“If that’s not four points or more…” (@MTL, v HOU, @ VAN)
Updated Theory
They still have Vancouver away between now and the resumption of the MLS regular season in mid-June 18, but RSL already yanked six points from the first two games noted above and, yeah, I’ve given up on predicting this team. They’re going to do what they do, which, for the time being, is pretty damn well.
San Jose Earthquakes
Preseason Theory
“Call it an international version of Money-Ball, a feeble attempt to keep up without a methodology or committing the resources.” That, with what I figured would be a better defense.
Pre-June Break Projection
I thought they’d beat SKC and lose to the Timbers, and ended with “yeah, they’re at risk of sinking.” (v POR, v SKC, @ LAFC)
Updated Theory
First, the Timbers suck, maybe right now, maybe longer, but San Jose avoided of the above-mentioned risk of sinking, even they stumbled against SKC. They lost at LAFC, but narrowly, they have one of the best forwards in MLS right now in Jeremey Ebobisse (take a bow, Portland Timbers FO), and they’re presently filling in the blanks of my theory on how the Timbers might miss the 2022 playoffs.
Seattle Sounders FC
Preseason Theory
Noted their spot in the three-way tie for the best defense in 2021, cautioned they may have let go more than they thought with Brad Smith (DC United) and Shane O’Neil (Toronto FC), but also argued the addition of Albert Rusnak “gives an already strong team another dimension."
Pre-June Break Projection
“The odds say they’ll ship at least two points at Colorado, but they should be good for four points or better out of that stretch…” (@ HOU, @ COL, v CLT)
Updated Theory
Exactly as foreseen, only with six points earned and on fewer goals. Moreover, they look like your better than average bet of going on a genuine, bona-fide tear over their next 10 games. The race to the top of the West will not be a coronation. And I feel the Supporters’ Shield moving East this season.
Toronto FC
Preseason Theory
Thought their upgrades in defense – e.g., adding Shane O’Neill and Carlos Salcedo – would buy them time/points until Lorenzo Insigne arrives this summer. Again, ranked them among the “perhaps improved.”
Pre-June Break Projection
“That’s a decent chance for a recovery. Let’s see what they make of it.” (@ DC, v CHI)
Updated Theory
Mostly good things, but I wouldn't take Toronto seriously yet. Sure, they did get four points for that run and just four points separating them from 19 points, aka, a clean step over the playoff line. I’m willing to throw them in the mix for the 2022 Eastern Conference mid-table melee, sponsored by Wendy’s, at this point. Not only is the East messy, I’m not even sure how far the schmutz sprawls.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Preseason Theory
“The worst Cascadia team. No offense,” followed with “They could sign Pele-Jesus and I’d still dump on their chances of going anywhere meaningful. I also see them as a boring team.”
Pre-June Break Projection
I assumed they would eat shit across the board, “even against SKC.” (v FCD, @ CLT, @ SKC, v RSL)
Updated Theory
It feels wise to wait to say what happens when the ‘Caps host RSL on June 4, but, personal aesthetic preferences aside, Vancouver just picked up some tough points (i.e., home win over Dallas), plus some points they could (away to SKC) for a total of six against Western rivals. Again, the Timbers need to wake the fuck up.
If I missed a team, I apologize, but I think I’ve given patiently half-observed opinions on them all. Have at it, whether in the comments or twitter.
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