MLS Week 32 (or Thereabouts) Narrative Preview: A Look at the Mid-Section

Today's area of interest.

With the finish line looming, I thought I’d circle back to where things are in the Major League Soccer playoff race. And, because I couldn’t handle the constraints of another twitter thread…don’t fence me in, baby…

Here, I’m less concerned with what’s ahead (with the unusual exceptions; see below) than where teams are going into, for most, their 32nd regular season game of 2022. About that, some teams have a game in hand right now – e.g., Orlando City SC, FC Cincinnati, Columbus Crew SC, Inter Miami CF, the Los Angeles Galaxy and the Seattle Sounders – but it’ll take a little aligning of the stars for most of them to make said game come good.

Moreover, this quick post focuses on the middle of the table – i.e., fourth place through tenth in both conferences. I don’t know how the question of who will finish first in each conference remains open – it’ll be the Philadelphia Union in the East and Los Angeles FC in the West – but figure it’s a math thing; the second-place teams look safe as well, even if the math’s a little tighter there, but the battle to finish third ain’t over…though it could get there in either conference or both if the results go a certain way this weekend. And yet all of that strikes me as far less important than the bleached-bones existential question of who will make the 2022 playoffs, hence the focus on (over-)broad middle of the table…

…which, truth be told, reminds of a mosh-pit at a Jimmy Buffett concert – i.e., inexplicable, hard to watch and by and large a race to nowhere. Now, for a closer, narrative look going by conference.

The Eastern Conference Scrum

While I still can’t see New York City FC going under – they’re still seven points over the line – they’ve stagnated badly enough to join the conversation. And if there is a theme to the East, stagnation ain’t a bad fit. Only two teams can lay a positive claim on momentum – Cincy and, of all teams, Atlanta United FC – but neither can argue they’re moving fast: Atlanta kept themselves relevant on the back of two straight wins (v Toronto FC and at Orlando), while Cincinnati has done nothing more than win games they should (v Charlotte FC and v San Jose Earthquakes). Orlando had a good run going till Atlanta tripped them up – four straight wins, a couple of them impressive – but it’s pretty goddamn bleak from there. Each of Columbus, Miami and New England have just one win in their past seven games and all them are fairly agnostic when it comes to whom they fail against and where they do it. With that in mind, here are the match ups for the relevant teams in the East (and where they stand on points, organized according to the standings):

NYCFC v Red Bull New York (NYC is on 46 points)

Orlando v Toronto (Orlando’s on 42 points)

Real Salt Lake v Cincinnati (Cincy’s on 42)

Columbus v Portland Timbers (Columbus has 41)

DC United v Miami (Miami has 39)

Atlanta v Philly (Atlanta has 39)

New England v Club du Foot Montreal (the Revs have 38)

And…I don’t see a lot changing. Orlando and Miami have the easiest games, at least on paper, though it bears noting that Miami kinda sucks on the road (1-5-1 over their past seven road games; they beat San Jose), they have a thin margin of error, and DC has stymied better teams at home. As for Orlando, if they can’t win that…

NYC probably doesn’t need more than a draw to hit the snooze button till the playoffs commence and – who knows? – maybe they’re feeling their oats after winning the [Made-Up] Cup midweek. Cincy, Columbus and the Revs all have tough games, while Atlanta’s sitting down to one of the only shit-sandwiches that MLS serves these days. All in all, the likeliest scenario(s) point to NYC and Orlando getting a little distance, Miami getting into a tangle with Columbus and Cincy, and both Atlanta and New England looking at longer odds. And, if that comes to pass, that would be clarifying.

FC Cincinnati Sidebar: Because they end soft – they host Chicago Fire FC then go to DC on Decision Day – RSL on the road doesn’t strike me as make-or-break. A draw would be good, in other words, and a win glorious.

The Western Conference Scrum

There’s more momentum, for one, with a couple teams having four wins in recent weeks - the Timbers, who have four straight, and Nashville, who had four straight, but gifted the Galaxy a draw in their last one - and a couple more having a pair of them, Seattle and the Colorado Rapids. The latter two teams have more ground to cover, as well as a shrinking window in which to do it, and there’s not a ton of give above them – i.e., they have a better chance of catching RSL and, due to circumstances (e.g., injuries, a moment of idiocy by/a suspension for Emmanuel Reynoso), Minnesota than they do Portland. Welcome to the West: it’s a little simpler out here.

Now, let’s look at this weekend’s match-ups for the Western Conference teams in the scrum:

Austin FC v Nashville (Nashville has 46)

Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota (Minnesota has 45)

Columbus v Portland (Portland has 45)

RSL v Cincy (RSL has 43)

LA Galaxy v Colorado ((LA has 40, Colorado 39)

Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle (Seattle has 39)

First and foremost, LA v Colorado has all the stakes…which too often translates as loud choking sounds and an equal share of the points. It’s pretty interesting from there.

For all their late stumbles, Austin’s solid at home (even against decent teams), but I still give Nashville a decent chance at a point or three. Going the other way, between Minnesota’s missing players and SKC’s latter-day improvement, the Loons face a surly visit – and that has real potential to create an opening for the Timbers. Columbus stands in the way, of course, and they have a solid defense, if one with a knack for allowing ill-timed, win-breaking goals…so I guess that should have showed up in the “all the stakes” space above.

On paper, then, RSL and Seattle look to have the best shot at gaining ground, only RSL hasn’t won in three games and Seattle hasn’t won on the road since the opening days of July…dear gods, will all the above end with every team above moving one point forward?

Portland Timbers Sidebar: Columbus on the road versus RSL on the road (the Timbers’ Decision Day game) strikes me as a toss-up – though I do feel like Portland has a good history against RSL. Portland only has LAFC at home between them and…taken together, that’s neither hard nor really easy; it feels like a lot of duels against peers. And, given that, the less the Timbers leave to chance, the better. So, yeah, I’m slapping a “big game” label on the Columbus game.

At any rate, that’s the situational round-up. We’ll see how things come out.