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| Feeling equal parts grandiose and Luddite. |
Not so long ago, I made myself swear I’d never do something like this again, while I also swearing that I’d figure it out one day, dammit. Ahem....
WHEREAS, everything below explains itself well enough; and
WHEREAS, it’s already a goddam whale of a post (but also a template I’m brainstorming);
LET IT BE RESOLVED, that’s it for the preamble, but for some light housekeeping. Below is information on every team in Major League Soccer. And, for this edition, I used very few sources – e.g., the (current) Form Guide, the (current) Conference Standings, plus a lightly-jumbled memory – and most of it is pretty damn big picture. That said, it also has the very simple goal of looking at 1) where each teams is in the standings and against their peers, 2) what they’ve done over the past 10 games, and 3) what they have left for games. That’s it....
Oh, and all the references to average or either side thereof references the present average number of goals coming and going across all teams in MLS: 42.8.
One last thing: assuming I carry this thing to the end of the season, you’ll start to see teams fall off the bottom. For what it’s worth, I’ve got seven teams listed as “The Dead” below – that’s against The Quick and The Lingering – but they’re mostly only present In Memoriam. Let’s just say I was generous.
Finally, are the teams ranked? Yeah, but only loosely.
The Quick
Philadelphia Union
Top-End Data: 1st in the East, 60 points, 21(!) above the line, straight-up killin' it on O and D, more blemished than flawed at home (10-0-5), and better on the road than most teams are at home (7-4-4). Have to be the new favorites, yeah?
Week 20 Theory
“I’d put money on more progress for Philly, even if it isn’t linear.” And then this happened...
The Last 10: WWWLWLWWWW (8-2-0)
Strength of Schedule: There are literally three consistent playoff teams in that mix, but when you’re taking care of that much business and running up numbers at a sprint (i.e., 32 goals for, 7 goals allowed) that’s not so much announcing intentions as threatening violence.
The End-Run: v ORL, @ ATL, @ CLT, v TFC
Updated Theory
Even with LAFC’s game in hand, between their form and that schedule, Philly looks to have the inside track to the Supporters’ Shield...not to mention an outstanding shot at momentum going into the games that truly matter. If the Union aren’t the consensus top contender...I don’t understand. My only concern: when’s the last time Philly played a tough stretch?
Los Angeles FC
Top-End Data: 1st in the West, 60 points, 22(!) above the line, good, wide spreads over the goals average on both sides, strong at home (12-1-2) and .500 on the road (or does a tie count as, like, a .005?).
Week 20 Theory
They’d regained their pace to where I didn’t think it mattered if they dropped points here and there. All signs pointed to them as the team to beat.
The Last 10: WWWWWWLLLW (7-3-0)
Strength of Schedule: Four long-time playoff teams, one marginal one, then a lot of fodder. And they got two of those recent losses against the fodder (e.g., @ SJ, @ HOU).
The End-Run: @ FCD, @ MIN v HOU, @ POR, v NSH
Updated Theory
And suddenly dropping points mattered quite a bit, if only for the history books. They’re better than fine, obviously, and juggernaut-esque form is rare in MLS, but dropping three straight games in the last third of the season ain’t recommended, regardless of venue.
Austin FC
Top-End Data: 2nd in the West, 51 points, 13 above the line, a good healthy attack (an MVP candidate will do that for you), right on average for goals allowed, and pretty damn strong (until recently) regardless of venue.
Week 20 Theory
Based on a soft schedule, I figured they had a chance to regain the inside lane to the Supporters’ Shield. They did not, but they’re back in it. Or were. Nine points is a big gap.
Last 10 Results: WTLWTWLWLL (4-4-2)
Strength of Schedule: Four struggling stragglers, but pretty stout from there. If there’s a knock, their recent wins came against the West’s weaker teams (e.g., Houston and SKC X 2) and, as much as people gushed about home blowout over LAFC, that one has three multi-goal losses around it.
The End-Run: @ SEA, v RSL, v NSH, @ VAN, v COL
Updated Theory
At zero risk of missing the post-season, but at semi-real risk of heading in at a stumble. On the plus side, I see a couple potential confidence-builders in the end-run. And, on a good night, they’ll fuck a team up.
Club du Foot Montreal
Top-End Data: 2nd in the East, 52 points, 14 above the line, good goals for, but a little shaky on the goals against side, a bit better on the road, but solid in any venue.
Week 20 Theory
“...they feel like a good bet to stay in fourth. They might even challenge the Red Bulls (just two points above) for third."
The Last 10: WWTWTWWWLW (7-1-2)
Strength of Schedule: There are just three playoff teams in that mix – one of them a recent arrival (Columbus) – but that only matters if you lose. And L’Impact picked up five of those wins on the road (against shit teams, sure, but...)
The End-Run: v CLB, v CHI, @ NE, v DC, @ MIA
Updated Theory
And look who’s 2nd in the East. And the bit about “challenging” the Red Bulls? Prescient like Nostradumbass. They should stroll to the playoffs on that schedule, but it’d take a near-fatal face-plant by Philly for L’Impact to overtake them. Despite the notes in the Strength of Schedule section, Montreal presents as a decent bet for a longer run in the playoffs.
New York Red Bulls
Top-End Data: 3rd in the East, 47 points, 11 above the line, better on defense than offense, but on the good side of average for both, still far better on the road (9-3-3) than they are at home (4-6-5), and that’s probably down to the way they play.
Week 20 Theory
“And yet that schedule strikes me as favorable for them. More of what they got after the June break, basically. Breaks. At the very real risk of another face-plant, I expect the Red Bulls to stay in third place five games from today.”
The Last 10: LWLTLWTWWL (4-4-2)
Strength of Schedule: I mean, what does it matter? They won two on the road against playoff teams (Austin and Montreal) and let a notoriously bad-on-the-road Colorado team absolutely break their defensive record (five goals allowed; five?!).
The End-Run: v NE, @ NYC, @ CLB, v CLT
Updated Theory
And where are they today? Third! As for the end-run, the bizarro-state of the Red Bulls home/away makes that pretty damn favorable. That said, they only need a good run if they want to stay in the top four. And given their home-v-road form........do they?
New York City FC
Top-End Data: 4th in the East, 45 points, seven above the line, better on the goals-for side of average, but respectable on defense; the same concept applies to their home-v-away, i.e., “better” versus “respectable.”
Week 20 Theory
Some anxiety over what would happen if/when they lost Tata Castellanos, but they’d just carried a smart streak forward and that prompted me to type, “They can trip, in other words, without it mattering a ton.”
The Last 10: WWWTLLLWLL (4-5-1)
Strength of Schedule: Harder on the front end than the back, and also a ton of away games (8), but they dropped five of the past six, which gets to how they wound up on a respectable 5-7-2 road record instead of running with the big fish.
The End-Run: v CIN, @ CLT, v RBNY, v ORL, @ ATL
Updated Theory
Huh. They won the tough ones (@ FCD, @ RBNY) then flubbed the easy(er) ones (v CLT, @ ORL or @ CLB?). Most signs point to trouble for Les Pigeons. Had they not just lost five of their past six, and given up too many goals (13) on top of that, the above schedule would look a lot different. At time of writing, it looks like a question mark.
Orlando City SC
Top-End Data: 5th in the East, 42 points, four above the line, short of the goals for average, and only marginally on the right side on goals allowed, a 50/50 proposition at home (7-7-0), but pretty stout on the road (5-3-6).
Week 20 Theory
“I can’t see any reason to expect anything, but more of the same. Or any reason to think that’ll drag them down. If they do trip up – say, getting less than four points – that might do it. And that’s far from crazy.” Translation: they were treading water, but keeping their heads clear.
The Last 10: WTTLLLWWWW (5-3-2)
Strength of Schedule: Given their last four results (@ RBNY, @ CLT, v NYC, v SEA), how much does it matter (especially with them being a contributing cause to three of those stumbles)?
The End-Run: @ PHI, v ATL, v TFC, @ NYC, @ MIA, v CLB
Updated Theory
Won’t lie, I counted them among the teams likely to make room above the East Conference playoff line, but, Orlando will make it and, yeah, the rest of the East should fret if they pick up nine or more over that run.
FC Dallas
Top-End Data: 3rd in West, 46 points, seven above the line, a hair above average on goals scored, well under for goals allowed, better home than away but respectable (4-5-6) on the latter.
Week 20 Theory
They’d gone through a dry spell just prior, leaving me to declare “they no longer look like contenders,” followed by a subordinate clause that made no damn sense. Going the other way, I did call them “stubborn” due to all the draws they forced.
The Last 10: TWWLTWWLTW (5-2-3)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn hearty, honestly. Seven of 10 teams /near above the playoff line. Related, they may be behind Austin, but they’re outrunning them.
The End-Run: v LAFC, @ SJ, @ COL, v SKC
Updated Theory
Dallas is going to make the playoffs. The question is whether they can avoid an ill-timed off night once they get there. That said, teams that score well enough and have a solid defense to back it up tend to go places. And they already have a real “any given night” vibe about them.
Nashville SC
Top-End Data: 4th in the West, 45 points, six above the line, the right side of average on both goals for and allowed, and they finally cleaned up that home form.
Week 20 Theory
“With the way they’re pissing away points at home, some of them close to free (e.g., goal-less draw v San Jose, 1-2 home loss to SKC), I don’t see any reason to expect them to clean up on that run. Just three home wins...Jesus...” Not confident, in other words.
The Last 10: LTTTLLWWWW (4-3-3)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty freakin’ soft, honestly; just three consistent playoff teams in that whole run. And then they go and win four straight in good and just ways, thereby making that home form come good at long last.
The End-Run: v LAG, @ ATX, v HOU, @ LAFC
Updated Theory
The cushion should get them into the post-season, even if they only got around to inflating the damn thing over the past two weeks/three games. In the very real plus column, they started lighting teams UP over their past four games, with 14 goals scored and Hany Mukhtar making loud noises in the MVP chase. Yes, three of those four straight, rather-impressive wins came at home, but the run looks real.
Minnesota United FC
Top-End Data: 5th in West, 44 points, six above the line, well within the rounding error of average on offense and defense, and decent regardless of venue (7-4-4 home, 6-7-1 away)
Week 20 Theory
They’d just come off a soft stretch that they handled well, and they felt like a safe bet to barter points with immediate rivals. Pretty bullish, basically.
The Last 10: WWTWLWWWLL (6-3-1)
Strength of Schedule: Some soft, some hard, some middling. Your av-e-rage schedule, basically, and they handled it well; their only eye-catching loss was the last one (loud brain-fart at home v Dallas).
The End-Run: @ POR, v LAFC, @ SKC, @ SJ, v VAN
Updated Theory
More of the same would be ample to get them proverbially there. I hate the cliche, but sometimes they tell the story: they’re competitive so long as Reynoso is whole. And yet, those two straight 0-3 losses (@ RSL, v FCD) bear watching.
WHEREAS, everything below explains itself well enough; and
WHEREAS, it’s already a goddam whale of a post (but also a template I’m brainstorming);
LET IT BE RESOLVED, that’s it for the preamble, but for some light housekeeping. Below is information on every team in Major League Soccer. And, for this edition, I used very few sources – e.g., the (current) Form Guide, the (current) Conference Standings, plus a lightly-jumbled memory – and most of it is pretty damn big picture. That said, it also has the very simple goal of looking at 1) where each teams is in the standings and against their peers, 2) what they’ve done over the past 10 games, and 3) what they have left for games. That’s it....
Oh, and all the references to average or either side thereof references the present average number of goals coming and going across all teams in MLS: 42.8.
One last thing: assuming I carry this thing to the end of the season, you’ll start to see teams fall off the bottom. For what it’s worth, I’ve got seven teams listed as “The Dead” below – that’s against The Quick and The Lingering – but they’re mostly only present In Memoriam. Let’s just say I was generous.
Finally, are the teams ranked? Yeah, but only loosely.
The Quick
Philadelphia Union
Top-End Data: 1st in the East, 60 points, 21(!) above the line, straight-up killin' it on O and D, more blemished than flawed at home (10-0-5), and better on the road than most teams are at home (7-4-4). Have to be the new favorites, yeah?
Week 20 Theory
“I’d put money on more progress for Philly, even if it isn’t linear.” And then this happened...
The Last 10: WWWLWLWWWW (8-2-0)
Strength of Schedule: There are literally three consistent playoff teams in that mix, but when you’re taking care of that much business and running up numbers at a sprint (i.e., 32 goals for, 7 goals allowed) that’s not so much announcing intentions as threatening violence.
The End-Run: v ORL, @ ATL, @ CLT, v TFC
Updated Theory
Even with LAFC’s game in hand, between their form and that schedule, Philly looks to have the inside track to the Supporters’ Shield...not to mention an outstanding shot at momentum going into the games that truly matter. If the Union aren’t the consensus top contender...I don’t understand. My only concern: when’s the last time Philly played a tough stretch?
Los Angeles FC
Top-End Data: 1st in the West, 60 points, 22(!) above the line, good, wide spreads over the goals average on both sides, strong at home (12-1-2) and .500 on the road (or does a tie count as, like, a .005?).
Week 20 Theory
They’d regained their pace to where I didn’t think it mattered if they dropped points here and there. All signs pointed to them as the team to beat.
The Last 10: WWWWWWLLLW (7-3-0)
Strength of Schedule: Four long-time playoff teams, one marginal one, then a lot of fodder. And they got two of those recent losses against the fodder (e.g., @ SJ, @ HOU).
The End-Run: @ FCD, @ MIN v HOU, @ POR, v NSH
Updated Theory
And suddenly dropping points mattered quite a bit, if only for the history books. They’re better than fine, obviously, and juggernaut-esque form is rare in MLS, but dropping three straight games in the last third of the season ain’t recommended, regardless of venue.
Austin FC
Top-End Data: 2nd in the West, 51 points, 13 above the line, a good healthy attack (an MVP candidate will do that for you), right on average for goals allowed, and pretty damn strong (until recently) regardless of venue.
Week 20 Theory
Based on a soft schedule, I figured they had a chance to regain the inside lane to the Supporters’ Shield. They did not, but they’re back in it. Or were. Nine points is a big gap.
Last 10 Results: WTLWTWLWLL (4-4-2)
Strength of Schedule: Four struggling stragglers, but pretty stout from there. If there’s a knock, their recent wins came against the West’s weaker teams (e.g., Houston and SKC X 2) and, as much as people gushed about home blowout over LAFC, that one has three multi-goal losses around it.
The End-Run: @ SEA, v RSL, v NSH, @ VAN, v COL
Updated Theory
At zero risk of missing the post-season, but at semi-real risk of heading in at a stumble. On the plus side, I see a couple potential confidence-builders in the end-run. And, on a good night, they’ll fuck a team up.
Club du Foot Montreal
Top-End Data: 2nd in the East, 52 points, 14 above the line, good goals for, but a little shaky on the goals against side, a bit better on the road, but solid in any venue.
Week 20 Theory
“...they feel like a good bet to stay in fourth. They might even challenge the Red Bulls (just two points above) for third."
The Last 10: WWTWTWWWLW (7-1-2)
Strength of Schedule: There are just three playoff teams in that mix – one of them a recent arrival (Columbus) – but that only matters if you lose. And L’Impact picked up five of those wins on the road (against shit teams, sure, but...)
The End-Run: v CLB, v CHI, @ NE, v DC, @ MIA
Updated Theory
And look who’s 2nd in the East. And the bit about “challenging” the Red Bulls? Prescient like Nostradumbass. They should stroll to the playoffs on that schedule, but it’d take a near-fatal face-plant by Philly for L’Impact to overtake them. Despite the notes in the Strength of Schedule section, Montreal presents as a decent bet for a longer run in the playoffs.
New York Red Bulls
Top-End Data: 3rd in the East, 47 points, 11 above the line, better on defense than offense, but on the good side of average for both, still far better on the road (9-3-3) than they are at home (4-6-5), and that’s probably down to the way they play.
Week 20 Theory
“And yet that schedule strikes me as favorable for them. More of what they got after the June break, basically. Breaks. At the very real risk of another face-plant, I expect the Red Bulls to stay in third place five games from today.”
The Last 10: LWLTLWTWWL (4-4-2)
Strength of Schedule: I mean, what does it matter? They won two on the road against playoff teams (Austin and Montreal) and let a notoriously bad-on-the-road Colorado team absolutely break their defensive record (five goals allowed; five?!).
The End-Run: v NE, @ NYC, @ CLB, v CLT
Updated Theory
And where are they today? Third! As for the end-run, the bizarro-state of the Red Bulls home/away makes that pretty damn favorable. That said, they only need a good run if they want to stay in the top four. And given their home-v-road form........do they?
New York City FC
Top-End Data: 4th in the East, 45 points, seven above the line, better on the goals-for side of average, but respectable on defense; the same concept applies to their home-v-away, i.e., “better” versus “respectable.”
Week 20 Theory
Some anxiety over what would happen if/when they lost Tata Castellanos, but they’d just carried a smart streak forward and that prompted me to type, “They can trip, in other words, without it mattering a ton.”
The Last 10: WWWTLLLWLL (4-5-1)
Strength of Schedule: Harder on the front end than the back, and also a ton of away games (8), but they dropped five of the past six, which gets to how they wound up on a respectable 5-7-2 road record instead of running with the big fish.
The End-Run: v CIN, @ CLT, v RBNY, v ORL, @ ATL
Updated Theory
Huh. They won the tough ones (@ FCD, @ RBNY) then flubbed the easy(er) ones (v CLT, @ ORL or @ CLB?). Most signs point to trouble for Les Pigeons. Had they not just lost five of their past six, and given up too many goals (13) on top of that, the above schedule would look a lot different. At time of writing, it looks like a question mark.
Orlando City SC
Top-End Data: 5th in the East, 42 points, four above the line, short of the goals for average, and only marginally on the right side on goals allowed, a 50/50 proposition at home (7-7-0), but pretty stout on the road (5-3-6).
Week 20 Theory
“I can’t see any reason to expect anything, but more of the same. Or any reason to think that’ll drag them down. If they do trip up – say, getting less than four points – that might do it. And that’s far from crazy.” Translation: they were treading water, but keeping their heads clear.
The Last 10: WTTLLLWWWW (5-3-2)
Strength of Schedule: Given their last four results (@ RBNY, @ CLT, v NYC, v SEA), how much does it matter (especially with them being a contributing cause to three of those stumbles)?
The End-Run: @ PHI, v ATL, v TFC, @ NYC, @ MIA, v CLB
Updated Theory
Won’t lie, I counted them among the teams likely to make room above the East Conference playoff line, but, Orlando will make it and, yeah, the rest of the East should fret if they pick up nine or more over that run.
FC Dallas
Top-End Data: 3rd in West, 46 points, seven above the line, a hair above average on goals scored, well under for goals allowed, better home than away but respectable (4-5-6) on the latter.
Week 20 Theory
They’d gone through a dry spell just prior, leaving me to declare “they no longer look like contenders,” followed by a subordinate clause that made no damn sense. Going the other way, I did call them “stubborn” due to all the draws they forced.
The Last 10: TWWLTWWLTW (5-2-3)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn hearty, honestly. Seven of 10 teams /near above the playoff line. Related, they may be behind Austin, but they’re outrunning them.
The End-Run: v LAFC, @ SJ, @ COL, v SKC
Updated Theory
Dallas is going to make the playoffs. The question is whether they can avoid an ill-timed off night once they get there. That said, teams that score well enough and have a solid defense to back it up tend to go places. And they already have a real “any given night” vibe about them.
Nashville SC
Top-End Data: 4th in the West, 45 points, six above the line, the right side of average on both goals for and allowed, and they finally cleaned up that home form.
Week 20 Theory
“With the way they’re pissing away points at home, some of them close to free (e.g., goal-less draw v San Jose, 1-2 home loss to SKC), I don’t see any reason to expect them to clean up on that run. Just three home wins...Jesus...” Not confident, in other words.
The Last 10: LTTTLLWWWW (4-3-3)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty freakin’ soft, honestly; just three consistent playoff teams in that whole run. And then they go and win four straight in good and just ways, thereby making that home form come good at long last.
The End-Run: v LAG, @ ATX, v HOU, @ LAFC
Updated Theory
The cushion should get them into the post-season, even if they only got around to inflating the damn thing over the past two weeks/three games. In the very real plus column, they started lighting teams UP over their past four games, with 14 goals scored and Hany Mukhtar making loud noises in the MVP chase. Yes, three of those four straight, rather-impressive wins came at home, but the run looks real.
Minnesota United FC
Top-End Data: 5th in West, 44 points, six above the line, well within the rounding error of average on offense and defense, and decent regardless of venue (7-4-4 home, 6-7-1 away)
Week 20 Theory
They’d just come off a soft stretch that they handled well, and they felt like a safe bet to barter points with immediate rivals. Pretty bullish, basically.
The Last 10: WWTWLWWWLL (6-3-1)
Strength of Schedule: Some soft, some hard, some middling. Your av-e-rage schedule, basically, and they handled it well; their only eye-catching loss was the last one (loud brain-fart at home v Dallas).
The End-Run: @ POR, v LAFC, @ SKC, @ SJ, v VAN
Updated Theory
More of the same would be ample to get them proverbially there. I hate the cliche, but sometimes they tell the story: they’re competitive so long as Reynoso is whole. And yet, those two straight 0-3 losses (@ RSL, v FCD) bear watching.
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| Just that one step.... |
The Lingering
Real Salt Lake
Top-End Data: 6th in the West, 42 points, three over the line, a bit soft on goals scored and a bit stout on goals allowed (just shy of four off on both), but reliable at home (8-2-4) and they take a point or three off teams on the road more often than they hand them over (though it bears noting they get just one more often than not).
Week 20 Theory
“I’d call whether can turn their season around they biggest question mark of that bunch. Seeing them get seven-to-eight out of that wouldn’t shock me, but I doubt five-to-six would hurt them much.” And I was right, if thanks to an uptick on the back five.
The Last 10: LWLTLWTTWL (3-4-3)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty tough. And they did all right with it. LAFC gives ‘em the fits, for what it’s worth.
The End-Run: v DC, v CIN, @ ATX(?), @ LAG, v POR (the Austin game hasn’t been scheduled yet)
Updated Theory
RSL wouldn’t be here if they weren’t the first team I’m not sure will make the playoffs. I doubt they’ll run the board on that schedule, but they don’t really have to; just taking points off the Galaxy and Portland could be enough. That requires winning elsewhere, of course, but RSL has a good shot at writing their own script.
Inter Miami CF
Top-End Data: 9th in East, 36 points, two below the line, sub-standard on both goals for and allowed - and worse on the goals for side – but quite good (8-3-3) at home, even if pretty dire (2-9-3) when traveling.
Week 20 Theory
“Looks like the Flamingos have nothing but more to prove over the next five games. To throw out a number, it’ll take getting six points out of that stretch – and probably one or two more to make up the ground.”
The Last 10: LWLTWTWWLL (4-4-2)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn stiff. Only one real punching bag – San Jose, but they played (and beat) them on the road – plus six long-time playoff teams, but that doesn't mean the last two losses didn't hurt (@ RBNY, @ CLB).
The End-Run: @ CHI, v CLB, @ DC, @ TFC, v ORL, v MTL
Updated Theory
That end-run schedule makes up for their last 10. I give the Flamingos as good a chance as any marginal team in the East.
FC Cincinnati
Top-End Data: 8th in the East (woot-woot!), 38 points, below the line on a tie-breaker I don’t care to sort out (head-to-head?), healthily above average on goals for and unhealthily above on goals allowed, decisively middling whether home or away. Churning out draws as if they think it’s the goal.
Week 20 Theory
“...the blunt reality is, this team has to start winning games if they want to go anywhere – including the playoffs – and all the above are the exact kinds of games they’ll have to win to get there. You’re either diner or dinner, and never the twain shall meet.” Yeah....
The Last 10: TTLTTWTTTW (2-1-7)
Strength of Schedule: I count four consistent playoff teams, and a bunch of teams Cincy has punched up to square off against in 2022...but those are the games a team has to start winning to get in line for a shot a glory. Beating Charlotte at home last weekend was a good start...
The End-Run: @ NYC, v SJ, @ RSL, @ SEA, v CHI, @ DC
Updated Theory
The draws definitely came home to roost, and I see a couple tricky games/situations in that end-run. Still, the stumbling all around them has widened their path. 6th through 9th in the East looks like a free-for-all to me...and, yeah, the placement is generous, don't read in volumes, etc.
New England Revolution
Top-End Data: 7th in the East, 38 points, average as Minnesota on both goals for and against, a bit shaky at home (6-3-6) and not exactly making up for it on the road (3-6-5).
Week 20 Theory
“If they can’t pick up seven-plus points from that run, I’d take that as a signal to put the Revs on the pay-no-mind list for 2022.” And what do you know? They got eight.
The Last 10: LTTWWTLLTW (3-3-4)
Strength of Schedule: A shade under 50/50 for quality opposition, but also good for the odd genuinely impressive result – e.g., 3-0 win @ ORL and a 3-0 win v NYC.
The End-Run: @ RBNY, @ HOU, v MTL, v ATL, @ CHI
Updated Theory
The mid-table scrum in the East is real enough that I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the order in which I listed them (shit...editing on the fly). And I can see that schedule breaking either way. They just have to stay ahead of two teams...
Portland Timbers
Top-End Data: 7th in the West, 42 points, 3 above the line, they have a respectable goals-for number but run a little hot on goals allowed, and they’ve drawn too many damn games, both home and away (but they’re all right at home), and the road form ain’t great (3-6-6).
Week 20 Theory
“Ah, delightful. More opportunities for lamentations and gnashing of teeth. The good news: that’s three six-point games against teams who are 1) above the Timbers, and 2) within reach. Good be transformational...” Translation: They had a path. If they could take it.
The Last 10: TWTTTLLWWW (4-2-4)
Strength of Schedule: Just four playoff teams in that mix, but the Timbers got points out of all of them. Dumb shit losses (@ TFC and @ SKC, both lopsided) put all the wrong padding on the road record. All in all, though, you (or I) would like to see them do better.
The End-Run: v MIN, @ CLB, v LAFC, @ RSL (aka, short runway)
Updated Theory
I can’t think of a more “one-game-at-a-time” team in the league right now. The best thing I can say, LAFC excepted, those are all low-scoring teams and only Columbus looks tricky defensively. The most honest thing I can say: there isn’t much for relief over those four games. If the Timbers make the post-season, they’ll have reason to feel good about it.
Columbus Crew SC
Top-End Data: 6th in the East, 40 points, 2 above playoff line, quite good defensively (2nd best on goals against), lagging on the attacking side, and not great (3-2-8) on the road.
Week 20 Theory
“We will get a real good measure of this team over the next five games. Anything respectable out of that – which, here, means seven points or better – the rest of MLS should start minding Columbus again.”
The Last 10: TWTLWTTTWT (3-1-6)
Strength of Schedule: Softer than your av-e-rage. More non-playoff than playoff teams (aka, why they don’t impress me more than Cincy). And they played a lot of those games (7) at home to boot.
The End-Run: @ MTL, @ MIA, v POR, v RBNY, @ CLT, @ ORL
Updated Theory
Between opposition and venue, seeing Columbus go under wouldn’t surprise me. They’re above the line, sure, but I don’t see a lot of advantage in it.
Los Angeles Galaxy
Top-End Data: 8th in the West, 39 points, three below the playoff line – but also a game or two in hand on literally every team above them – barely above average on goals for and a fraction above average on goals allowed, and the even split on wins and losses makes an issue out of the fact they don’t force a lot of draws (they’ve improved lately, just not against the right teams; see below).
Week 20 Theory
“The latest intelligence (which, for the record, too often comes from the same channel) describes a team at odds with itself.” Things were not good, in other words.
The Last 10: LWLLLWTWTT (3-4-3)
Strength of Schedule: Oof, just two against playoff teams, one of them in favorable circumstances, both of them losses. And there’s a lot of failure to launch around those wins.
The End-Run: @ NSH, @ VAN, v COL, @ SJ, v RSL, @ HOU
Updated Theory
And now we’ve reached the first team I well and truly wouldn’t be surprised to miss the playoffs. I get that Riqui Puig has looked good since arriving, but the overall form over their past 10 games, coupled with failing to force a win either at Toronto or at home against SKC? They might make a run, sure, but what would you bet on it?
Toronto FC
Top-End Data: 10th in the East, 34 points, four below the line, sufficiently improved on offense to punch a bit above average on goals for, but the defense rates among the worst in MLS, and their road form isn’t much better (though they are all right at home).
Week 20 Theory
“Eyeing a soft schedule, I thought I could see a pathway for Toronto to make up some ground, but they opted to set up camp, more or less, and light it on fire. They’ve gained four points from 21 available since the June break,” i.e., not so good.
The Last 10: LWTWWTLWTL (4-3-3)
Strength of Schedule: Call it five games against peers (where they did OK), three tough ones (less well), but they made up ground on some credible wins – e.g., on the road over Nashville and...fucking Timbers.
The End-Run: @ ATL, @ ORL v MIA, @ PHI
Updated Theory
Between strength of schedule, form, and the fact their shiny new Italians (Lorenzo Insigne, Federico Bernardeschi, and Domenico Criscito...all Italian?) have made them damn hard to shut them out, I’m comfortable keeping Toronto in the mix. That said...tough end-run. I expect them to go under.
Atlanta United FC
Top-End Data: 11th in East, 33 points, five below the line, good at home (7-3-4), bad on the road (1-9-5)
Week 20 Theory
I fully expect more of the same [“the middle of middling], even if the particular team dynamics don’t follow the same narrative – e.g., about 1/3 of the points on offer, and more time close to the playoff line.
Last 10 Results: TLTWTLTWLL (2-4-4)
Strength of Schedule: Three against steady playoff teams, four against marginal ones; gives the impression they’re right where they should be.
The End-Run: v TFC, @ ORL, v PHI, @ NE, v NYC
Updated Theory
Put it this way: having just watched them flail against the Timbers makes that five-point gap looks a lot bigger. And that end-run should finish them off, but see notes about “stumbles all around” Cincy in the East. They’re a dark horse, and by many lengths, but I can’t write them out just yet.
Seattle Sounders FC
Top-End Data: 9th in the West, 36 points, six below the line, average as Minnesota on goals for and against, if a little better in defense, good at home (8-5-1-) and quite possibly traveling worse than they ever have (3-10-2?!).
Week 20 Theory
“What’s next in Seattle’s brave new world? Those look like three winnable home games, and I’m confident that would be enough to re-write the narrative. Just feels less guaranteed than in past seasons.” The “brave new world” referenced their then-shaky form. And look what has continued...
The Last 10: LWLWLLTLLW (3-6-1)
Strength of Schedule: Four playoff teams, two marginal ones, but, god-damn, how hard they’ve died on the road lately (0-5-1). A tricky schedule, in other words, but failing to navigate such things lands one in a certain place. And two of those home wins (v COL, v HOU) fall a little short of bracing.
The End-Run: v ATX, @ VAN, v CIN, @ SKC, v SJ
Updated Theory
Favorable as that is, six points amounts to a lot of ground – especially when Houston at home was your “salvation” after getting just one point out of the previous five games. This could be the year for Seattle, and in all the wrong ways.
Chicago Fire FC
Top-End Data: 13th in East, 32 points, six below the line, solid on goals allowed, which gets undone by literally the worst offense in the league, middling at home (5-5-4), and on the wrong side of middling on the road.
Week 20 Theory
“...anything better than five points – which, it bears noting, doesn’t help enough – should read as impressive, if mainly as a trap game for teams aspiring to the playoffs,” aka, not good.
The Last 10: WWWTWLLLTT (4-3-3)
Strength of Schedule: Their three losses came against the then-top 3 in the East; punching their weight against everyone else, regardless of venue.
The End-Run: v MIA, @ MTL, v CLT, @ CIN, v NE
Updated Theory
Their happy little run – i.e., the first half of their last 10 - was pretty stirring, honestly, but they started doing well enough too late (because they needed “good”). And yet, their last five games looks a lot like the games that built their little run and good results will mean taking points off teams directly above them. Will I be stunned if they do it? Oh, absolutely.
Real Salt Lake
Top-End Data: 6th in the West, 42 points, three over the line, a bit soft on goals scored and a bit stout on goals allowed (just shy of four off on both), but reliable at home (8-2-4) and they take a point or three off teams on the road more often than they hand them over (though it bears noting they get just one more often than not).
Week 20 Theory
“I’d call whether can turn their season around they biggest question mark of that bunch. Seeing them get seven-to-eight out of that wouldn’t shock me, but I doubt five-to-six would hurt them much.” And I was right, if thanks to an uptick on the back five.
The Last 10: LWLTLWTTWL (3-4-3)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty tough. And they did all right with it. LAFC gives ‘em the fits, for what it’s worth.
The End-Run: v DC, v CIN, @ ATX(?), @ LAG, v POR (the Austin game hasn’t been scheduled yet)
Updated Theory
RSL wouldn’t be here if they weren’t the first team I’m not sure will make the playoffs. I doubt they’ll run the board on that schedule, but they don’t really have to; just taking points off the Galaxy and Portland could be enough. That requires winning elsewhere, of course, but RSL has a good shot at writing their own script.
Inter Miami CF
Top-End Data: 9th in East, 36 points, two below the line, sub-standard on both goals for and allowed - and worse on the goals for side – but quite good (8-3-3) at home, even if pretty dire (2-9-3) when traveling.
Week 20 Theory
“Looks like the Flamingos have nothing but more to prove over the next five games. To throw out a number, it’ll take getting six points out of that stretch – and probably one or two more to make up the ground.”
The Last 10: LWLTWTWWLL (4-4-2)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn stiff. Only one real punching bag – San Jose, but they played (and beat) them on the road – plus six long-time playoff teams, but that doesn't mean the last two losses didn't hurt (@ RBNY, @ CLB).
The End-Run: @ CHI, v CLB, @ DC, @ TFC, v ORL, v MTL
Updated Theory
That end-run schedule makes up for their last 10. I give the Flamingos as good a chance as any marginal team in the East.
FC Cincinnati
Top-End Data: 8th in the East (woot-woot!), 38 points, below the line on a tie-breaker I don’t care to sort out (head-to-head?), healthily above average on goals for and unhealthily above on goals allowed, decisively middling whether home or away. Churning out draws as if they think it’s the goal.
Week 20 Theory
“...the blunt reality is, this team has to start winning games if they want to go anywhere – including the playoffs – and all the above are the exact kinds of games they’ll have to win to get there. You’re either diner or dinner, and never the twain shall meet.” Yeah....
The Last 10: TTLTTWTTTW (2-1-7)
Strength of Schedule: I count four consistent playoff teams, and a bunch of teams Cincy has punched up to square off against in 2022...but those are the games a team has to start winning to get in line for a shot a glory. Beating Charlotte at home last weekend was a good start...
The End-Run: @ NYC, v SJ, @ RSL, @ SEA, v CHI, @ DC
Updated Theory
The draws definitely came home to roost, and I see a couple tricky games/situations in that end-run. Still, the stumbling all around them has widened their path. 6th through 9th in the East looks like a free-for-all to me...and, yeah, the placement is generous, don't read in volumes, etc.
New England Revolution
Top-End Data: 7th in the East, 38 points, average as Minnesota on both goals for and against, a bit shaky at home (6-3-6) and not exactly making up for it on the road (3-6-5).
Week 20 Theory
“If they can’t pick up seven-plus points from that run, I’d take that as a signal to put the Revs on the pay-no-mind list for 2022.” And what do you know? They got eight.
The Last 10: LTTWWTLLTW (3-3-4)
Strength of Schedule: A shade under 50/50 for quality opposition, but also good for the odd genuinely impressive result – e.g., 3-0 win @ ORL and a 3-0 win v NYC.
The End-Run: @ RBNY, @ HOU, v MTL, v ATL, @ CHI
Updated Theory
The mid-table scrum in the East is real enough that I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the order in which I listed them (shit...editing on the fly). And I can see that schedule breaking either way. They just have to stay ahead of two teams...
Portland Timbers
Top-End Data: 7th in the West, 42 points, 3 above the line, they have a respectable goals-for number but run a little hot on goals allowed, and they’ve drawn too many damn games, both home and away (but they’re all right at home), and the road form ain’t great (3-6-6).
Week 20 Theory
“Ah, delightful. More opportunities for lamentations and gnashing of teeth. The good news: that’s three six-point games against teams who are 1) above the Timbers, and 2) within reach. Good be transformational...” Translation: They had a path. If they could take it.
The Last 10: TWTTTLLWWW (4-2-4)
Strength of Schedule: Just four playoff teams in that mix, but the Timbers got points out of all of them. Dumb shit losses (@ TFC and @ SKC, both lopsided) put all the wrong padding on the road record. All in all, though, you (or I) would like to see them do better.
The End-Run: v MIN, @ CLB, v LAFC, @ RSL (aka, short runway)
Updated Theory
I can’t think of a more “one-game-at-a-time” team in the league right now. The best thing I can say, LAFC excepted, those are all low-scoring teams and only Columbus looks tricky defensively. The most honest thing I can say: there isn’t much for relief over those four games. If the Timbers make the post-season, they’ll have reason to feel good about it.
Columbus Crew SC
Top-End Data: 6th in the East, 40 points, 2 above playoff line, quite good defensively (2nd best on goals against), lagging on the attacking side, and not great (3-2-8) on the road.
Week 20 Theory
“We will get a real good measure of this team over the next five games. Anything respectable out of that – which, here, means seven points or better – the rest of MLS should start minding Columbus again.”
The Last 10: TWTLWTTTWT (3-1-6)
Strength of Schedule: Softer than your av-e-rage. More non-playoff than playoff teams (aka, why they don’t impress me more than Cincy). And they played a lot of those games (7) at home to boot.
The End-Run: @ MTL, @ MIA, v POR, v RBNY, @ CLT, @ ORL
Updated Theory
Between opposition and venue, seeing Columbus go under wouldn’t surprise me. They’re above the line, sure, but I don’t see a lot of advantage in it.
Los Angeles Galaxy
Top-End Data: 8th in the West, 39 points, three below the playoff line – but also a game or two in hand on literally every team above them – barely above average on goals for and a fraction above average on goals allowed, and the even split on wins and losses makes an issue out of the fact they don’t force a lot of draws (they’ve improved lately, just not against the right teams; see below).
Week 20 Theory
“The latest intelligence (which, for the record, too often comes from the same channel) describes a team at odds with itself.” Things were not good, in other words.
The Last 10: LWLLLWTWTT (3-4-3)
Strength of Schedule: Oof, just two against playoff teams, one of them in favorable circumstances, both of them losses. And there’s a lot of failure to launch around those wins.
The End-Run: @ NSH, @ VAN, v COL, @ SJ, v RSL, @ HOU
Updated Theory
And now we’ve reached the first team I well and truly wouldn’t be surprised to miss the playoffs. I get that Riqui Puig has looked good since arriving, but the overall form over their past 10 games, coupled with failing to force a win either at Toronto or at home against SKC? They might make a run, sure, but what would you bet on it?
Toronto FC
Top-End Data: 10th in the East, 34 points, four below the line, sufficiently improved on offense to punch a bit above average on goals for, but the defense rates among the worst in MLS, and their road form isn’t much better (though they are all right at home).
Week 20 Theory
“Eyeing a soft schedule, I thought I could see a pathway for Toronto to make up some ground, but they opted to set up camp, more or less, and light it on fire. They’ve gained four points from 21 available since the June break,” i.e., not so good.
The Last 10: LWTWWTLWTL (4-3-3)
Strength of Schedule: Call it five games against peers (where they did OK), three tough ones (less well), but they made up ground on some credible wins – e.g., on the road over Nashville and...fucking Timbers.
The End-Run: @ ATL, @ ORL v MIA, @ PHI
Updated Theory
Between strength of schedule, form, and the fact their shiny new Italians (Lorenzo Insigne, Federico Bernardeschi, and Domenico Criscito...all Italian?) have made them damn hard to shut them out, I’m comfortable keeping Toronto in the mix. That said...tough end-run. I expect them to go under.
Atlanta United FC
Top-End Data: 11th in East, 33 points, five below the line, good at home (7-3-4), bad on the road (1-9-5)
Week 20 Theory
I fully expect more of the same [“the middle of middling], even if the particular team dynamics don’t follow the same narrative – e.g., about 1/3 of the points on offer, and more time close to the playoff line.
Last 10 Results: TLTWTLTWLL (2-4-4)
Strength of Schedule: Three against steady playoff teams, four against marginal ones; gives the impression they’re right where they should be.
The End-Run: v TFC, @ ORL, v PHI, @ NE, v NYC
Updated Theory
Put it this way: having just watched them flail against the Timbers makes that five-point gap looks a lot bigger. And that end-run should finish them off, but see notes about “stumbles all around” Cincy in the East. They’re a dark horse, and by many lengths, but I can’t write them out just yet.
Seattle Sounders FC
Top-End Data: 9th in the West, 36 points, six below the line, average as Minnesota on goals for and against, if a little better in defense, good at home (8-5-1-) and quite possibly traveling worse than they ever have (3-10-2?!).
Week 20 Theory
“What’s next in Seattle’s brave new world? Those look like three winnable home games, and I’m confident that would be enough to re-write the narrative. Just feels less guaranteed than in past seasons.” The “brave new world” referenced their then-shaky form. And look what has continued...
The Last 10: LWLWLLTLLW (3-6-1)
Strength of Schedule: Four playoff teams, two marginal ones, but, god-damn, how hard they’ve died on the road lately (0-5-1). A tricky schedule, in other words, but failing to navigate such things lands one in a certain place. And two of those home wins (v COL, v HOU) fall a little short of bracing.
The End-Run: v ATX, @ VAN, v CIN, @ SKC, v SJ
Updated Theory
Favorable as that is, six points amounts to a lot of ground – especially when Houston at home was your “salvation” after getting just one point out of the previous five games. This could be the year for Seattle, and in all the wrong ways.
Chicago Fire FC
Top-End Data: 13th in East, 32 points, six below the line, solid on goals allowed, which gets undone by literally the worst offense in the league, middling at home (5-5-4), and on the wrong side of middling on the road.
Week 20 Theory
“...anything better than five points – which, it bears noting, doesn’t help enough – should read as impressive, if mainly as a trap game for teams aspiring to the playoffs,” aka, not good.
The Last 10: WWWTWLLLTT (4-3-3)
Strength of Schedule: Their three losses came against the then-top 3 in the East; punching their weight against everyone else, regardless of venue.
The End-Run: v MIA, @ MTL, v CLT, @ CIN, v NE
Updated Theory
Their happy little run – i.e., the first half of their last 10 - was pretty stirring, honestly, but they started doing well enough too late (because they needed “good”). And yet, their last five games looks a lot like the games that built their little run and good results will mean taking points off teams directly above them. Will I be stunned if they do it? Oh, absolutely.
 |
| I, too, wish things were better. |
The Dead
Colorado Rapids
Top-End Data: 11th in the West, 33 points, nine below the line (how the sporadically mighty have fallen), not great on offense, a little worse on defense, not getting enough done at home (7-2-5), and in a race to the bottom against Atlanta for worst road team of 2022.
Week 20 Theory
“I heard they simplified their game in recent weeks – and they’ve gone three unbeaten, and with a clean win over the Galaxy thrown in – but that’s still a lot of road in their next five, they’re 0-6-3 on the road, and those home games are hardly gimmies. It’s hard to see them clawing back a three-point deficit....” And that’s from the salad days...
The Last 10: WLWWTLTLLT (3-4-3)
Strength of Schedule: Another case of, how much does it matter? They’re winless in their last six and, sure, they played four on the road, three against strong teams (or a decent home team, e.g., VAN), but they also just drew DC on the road.
The End-Run: v VAN, v SJ, @ LAG, v FCD, @ ATX
Updated Theory
Here for the lack of six-pointers that would let them drag someone down as they lifted themselves up. And I’d be stunned to see them get nine points out of that as is. Budget soccer hits its ceiling...
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Top-End Data: 10th in the West, 34 points, eight below the line, pretty damn subpar on goals scored (lowest so far, in fact, with 32 at time of writing), and almost as far on the wrong side of average for goals allowed, surprisingly solid at home (7-4-3), but the road form (2-9-4) explains a lot.
Week 20 Theory
“I’d call that a pretty favorable set of games for picking up some points. With the ‘Caps breathing hot air on the four teams above them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them jump anyone that slips,” aka, a bit bullish. Perhaps overly.
The Last 10: TTLTWLWTLL (2-4-4)
Strength of Schedule: Fairly even split, but with most clustered around marginal (i.e., teams yo-yoing over and under the playoff line); the two wins (v HOU, v COL) are games most teams should win (per the averages), but they also dropped a home game v Chicago 1-3.
The End-Run: @ COL, v LAG, v SEA, v ATX, @ MIN
Updated Theory
I wouldn’t have buried them – never say never, etc. – had I seen more life after they signed players like Andres Cubas and Julian Gressel, but I didn’t. Eight points deep is a long way down when you just can’t score.
Charlotte FC
Top-End Data: 12th in the East, 32 points, 6 below the line, on the wrong side of average for goals scored and allowed (though pretty close there), respectable at home (8-6-0), but pretty damn tragic on the road (2-11-2).
Week 20 Theory
They still surprised me enough that I saw them points out of any game against then non-elite teams.
The Last 10: WLLWLLWLLL (3-7-0)
Strength of Schedule: Two powerhouses (and they surprised NYC), a long-time playoff team, a couple marginal outfits, then the kinds of teams you just kinda hafta, if you know what I mean.
The End-Run: v NYC, @ CHI, v PHI, v CLB, @ RBNY
Updated Theory
I had them among the lingering before the weekend’s loss at Cincy, but after watching them strive to little effect and taking a look at the big picture, I don’t see them taking six points out of those final five games.
Sporting Kansas City
Top-End Data: 12th in the West, 30 points, 12 below the line, slightly better on defense than offense, but bad at both, all right at home (6-6-4), so call it another case of getting done in by the road.
Week 20 Theory
Pretty much wrote them off, but with a “big, if true” caveat in the event they went on a run over their next five games...which they did not.
The Last 10: WTLLLWLWWT (4-4-2)
Strength of Schedule: They’ve won some good games – lately, especially (LAG, POR, SJ, tho all of them at home) – but, more importantly, they wrapped up one of the toughest 10-game stretches in this whole damn whale.
The End-Run: @ HOU, v DC, v MIN, v SEA, @ FCD
Updated Theory
I’ve seen their two latest signings – Erik Thommy and William Agada – shock real life into a team...which only makes it more of shame they’re too far down to climb out. I get that no teams have been mathematically eliminated yet, but it would take SKC running up five Ws over those last games and a total collapse by literally everyone above them for them to make the playoffs.
San Jose Earthquakes
Top-End Data: 13th in the West, 30 points, 12 below the line, damn near average in the attack, but second-worst in goals allowed in MLS, reasonable at home (4-6-5), but I also should have included them in that race to the bottom for worst road team in the league, 2022 edition.
Week 20 Theory
“They’re still 5 points below the playoff line, a lot of ground to make up in the near-term. If they can make everything out of those two home games – not at all unreasonably – and pick off points in the other two they’d be pretty close to back to it.” Needless to say...yeah, didn’t happen.
The Last 10: WLLTLWLWLW (3-5-2)
Strength of Schedule: Up for the odd surprise – e.g., they beat the Galaxy in LA and LAFC in San Jose – and they played one of the tougher last 10s, but they’re down here for at least 16 ½ reasons (that’s a numerical representation of 12 losses, plus nine draws).
The End-Run: @ CIN, @ COL, v FC, v LAG, v MIN, @ SEA
Updated Theory
They’re not going to get 12 points out of that run, The End.
Houston Dynamo FC
Top-End Data: 14th in the West, 29 points, 13 below the line (oof), on the wrong side of average on both offense and defense, though not far, and that tells you everything you need to know about their results (but they suck on the road).
Week 20 Theory
“If I’m being honest, this looks like the stretch that kills whatever hope Houston had of playing past the last game of the regular season.” It did.
The Last 10: LWLLLLTLWL (2-6-2)
Strength of Schedule: Near as I can tell, they surprise everyone – including themselves – every time they get a win. As LAFC can attest to. But Houston, along with Seattle, gives a pretty stirring demonstration on the value of drawing games: they’re just one win behind four teams who are very much alive in the East, but losing half the games takes its toll.
The End-Run: v SKC, v NE, @ LAFC, @ NSH, v LAG
Updated Theory
Doomed. And they already fired Paolo Nagamura.
DC United
Top-End Data: 14th in the East, 26 points, 12 below the line, bad in the attack, somehow worse on defense, just bad, one of those freak, flaming fuck-up seasons DC does on a four, five year cycle.
Week 20 Theory
“...what does being last mean besides not being very good anywhere? I see them getting somewhere between not much and not nearly enough over that stretch,” aka, very bad.
The Last 10: LLWLTLLLLT (1-7-2, aka, the worst team in MLS getting worse)
Strength of Schedule: Pfft.
The End-Run: @ RSL, @ SKC, v MIA, @ MTL, v CIN
Updated Theory
Nothing that'll fix anything...
Again, think of this as a resource. Just a really blunt and clunky one. Like an encyclopedia. Fin.
Colorado Rapids
Top-End Data: 11th in the West, 33 points, nine below the line (how the sporadically mighty have fallen), not great on offense, a little worse on defense, not getting enough done at home (7-2-5), and in a race to the bottom against Atlanta for worst road team of 2022.
Week 20 Theory
“I heard they simplified their game in recent weeks – and they’ve gone three unbeaten, and with a clean win over the Galaxy thrown in – but that’s still a lot of road in their next five, they’re 0-6-3 on the road, and those home games are hardly gimmies. It’s hard to see them clawing back a three-point deficit....” And that’s from the salad days...
The Last 10: WLWWTLTLLT (3-4-3)
Strength of Schedule: Another case of, how much does it matter? They’re winless in their last six and, sure, they played four on the road, three against strong teams (or a decent home team, e.g., VAN), but they also just drew DC on the road.
The End-Run: v VAN, v SJ, @ LAG, v FCD, @ ATX
Updated Theory
Here for the lack of six-pointers that would let them drag someone down as they lifted themselves up. And I’d be stunned to see them get nine points out of that as is. Budget soccer hits its ceiling...
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Top-End Data: 10th in the West, 34 points, eight below the line, pretty damn subpar on goals scored (lowest so far, in fact, with 32 at time of writing), and almost as far on the wrong side of average for goals allowed, surprisingly solid at home (7-4-3), but the road form (2-9-4) explains a lot.
Week 20 Theory
“I’d call that a pretty favorable set of games for picking up some points. With the ‘Caps breathing hot air on the four teams above them, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them jump anyone that slips,” aka, a bit bullish. Perhaps overly.
The Last 10: TTLTWLWTLL (2-4-4)
Strength of Schedule: Fairly even split, but with most clustered around marginal (i.e., teams yo-yoing over and under the playoff line); the two wins (v HOU, v COL) are games most teams should win (per the averages), but they also dropped a home game v Chicago 1-3.
The End-Run: @ COL, v LAG, v SEA, v ATX, @ MIN
Updated Theory
I wouldn’t have buried them – never say never, etc. – had I seen more life after they signed players like Andres Cubas and Julian Gressel, but I didn’t. Eight points deep is a long way down when you just can’t score.
Charlotte FC
Top-End Data: 12th in the East, 32 points, 6 below the line, on the wrong side of average for goals scored and allowed (though pretty close there), respectable at home (8-6-0), but pretty damn tragic on the road (2-11-2).
Week 20 Theory
They still surprised me enough that I saw them points out of any game against then non-elite teams.
The Last 10: WLLWLLWLLL (3-7-0)
Strength of Schedule: Two powerhouses (and they surprised NYC), a long-time playoff team, a couple marginal outfits, then the kinds of teams you just kinda hafta, if you know what I mean.
The End-Run: v NYC, @ CHI, v PHI, v CLB, @ RBNY
Updated Theory
I had them among the lingering before the weekend’s loss at Cincy, but after watching them strive to little effect and taking a look at the big picture, I don’t see them taking six points out of those final five games.
Sporting Kansas City
Top-End Data: 12th in the West, 30 points, 12 below the line, slightly better on defense than offense, but bad at both, all right at home (6-6-4), so call it another case of getting done in by the road.
Week 20 Theory
Pretty much wrote them off, but with a “big, if true” caveat in the event they went on a run over their next five games...which they did not.
The Last 10: WTLLLWLWWT (4-4-2)
Strength of Schedule: They’ve won some good games – lately, especially (LAG, POR, SJ, tho all of them at home) – but, more importantly, they wrapped up one of the toughest 10-game stretches in this whole damn whale.
The End-Run: @ HOU, v DC, v MIN, v SEA, @ FCD
Updated Theory
I’ve seen their two latest signings – Erik Thommy and William Agada – shock real life into a team...which only makes it more of shame they’re too far down to climb out. I get that no teams have been mathematically eliminated yet, but it would take SKC running up five Ws over those last games and a total collapse by literally everyone above them for them to make the playoffs.
San Jose Earthquakes
Top-End Data: 13th in the West, 30 points, 12 below the line, damn near average in the attack, but second-worst in goals allowed in MLS, reasonable at home (4-6-5), but I also should have included them in that race to the bottom for worst road team in the league, 2022 edition.
Week 20 Theory
“They’re still 5 points below the playoff line, a lot of ground to make up in the near-term. If they can make everything out of those two home games – not at all unreasonably – and pick off points in the other two they’d be pretty close to back to it.” Needless to say...yeah, didn’t happen.
The Last 10: WLLTLWLWLW (3-5-2)
Strength of Schedule: Up for the odd surprise – e.g., they beat the Galaxy in LA and LAFC in San Jose – and they played one of the tougher last 10s, but they’re down here for at least 16 ½ reasons (that’s a numerical representation of 12 losses, plus nine draws).
The End-Run: @ CIN, @ COL, v FC, v LAG, v MIN, @ SEA
Updated Theory
They’re not going to get 12 points out of that run, The End.
Houston Dynamo FC
Top-End Data: 14th in the West, 29 points, 13 below the line (oof), on the wrong side of average on both offense and defense, though not far, and that tells you everything you need to know about their results (but they suck on the road).
Week 20 Theory
“If I’m being honest, this looks like the stretch that kills whatever hope Houston had of playing past the last game of the regular season.” It did.
The Last 10: LWLLLLTLWL (2-6-2)
Strength of Schedule: Near as I can tell, they surprise everyone – including themselves – every time they get a win. As LAFC can attest to. But Houston, along with Seattle, gives a pretty stirring demonstration on the value of drawing games: they’re just one win behind four teams who are very much alive in the East, but losing half the games takes its toll.
The End-Run: v SKC, v NE, @ LAFC, @ NSH, v LAG
Updated Theory
Doomed. And they already fired Paolo Nagamura.
DC United
Top-End Data: 14th in the East, 26 points, 12 below the line, bad in the attack, somehow worse on defense, just bad, one of those freak, flaming fuck-up seasons DC does on a four, five year cycle.
Week 20 Theory
“...what does being last mean besides not being very good anywhere? I see them getting somewhere between not much and not nearly enough over that stretch,” aka, very bad.
The Last 10: LLWLTLLLLT (1-7-2, aka, the worst team in MLS getting worse)
Strength of Schedule: Pfft.
The End-Run: @ RSL, @ SKC, v MIA, @ MTL, v CIN
Updated Theory
Nothing that'll fix anything...
Again, think of this as a resource. Just a really blunt and clunky one. Like an encyclopedia. Fin.
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