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| That's to say, people were still on the big boat. |
Despite what you see online, I haven’t stopped thinking about our clumsy little domestic league, but, GODS, how the monstrous, charnel house that is Qatar 2022 (aka, the Winter World Cup) put the just, regular and long-established rhythms of the MLS regular season through the blender. In years past, October was the month for checking out on the league/pissing off for the anniversary. Thanks to FIFA hitting new heights of corruption and venality, it’s entirely possible I’ll miss the decisive moment of my Portland Timbers’ 2022 season. And that's after missing so many for FC Cincinnati down the stretch. On the plus side, if some very reasonable things break the right way, fans may get a Decision Day 2022 chock-full of momentous decisions.
And I’ll do anyone who finds this post the favor of not pretending I’m doing anything new here, results and schedules are my bag, I’m reaching in again and generally, etc. I am, however, going to sharpen the focus to back up two half-bold statements:
Why FC Cincinnati Will Make the 2022 Playoffs; and
Why the Portland Timbers Will Make the 2022 Playoffs
I went with “half-bold” because only one of those feels at all risky. So, let’s start with the safe one:
Why FC Cincinnati Will Make the 2022 Playoffs
First, and funnily, the positional range of teams in the Eastern Conference with a reasonable shot at making the playoffs has barely shrunk since Week 32. Due respect to the New England Revolution, but they have more teams above them than places in the lifeboat – i.e., they have to win out to top out at 7th and it would take every team above them failing to make it happen. Related, I only kept Charlotte in the mix due to their game in hand. With that, here are the teams I can call alive in the East without getting shady about it, their total number of points and their remaining opponents and where they play them:
FC Cincinnati, 46 points, v CHI, @ DC
Orlando City SC, 46 points, v @ NYC, @ MIA, v CLB
Inter Miami CF, 42 points, @ TFC, v ORL, v MTL
_________________ (aka, the playoff line)
Columbus Crew SC, 42 points, v RBNY, @ CLT, @ ORL
Atlanta United FC, 40 points, @ NE, v NYC
Charlotte FC, 38 points, v PHI, v CLB, @ RBNY
First, Cincinnati has a good chance of topping that group. I’m not confident they’ll do it – and that’s with suspecting Orlando gets at most four points out of that stretch – but I also don’t see them finishing fourth or fifth as a big deal. That would (almost certainly) pit them against Red Bull New York or New York City FC in the first round, aka, a high-energy, low-scoring grind, but that can only happen if they get there. The real question is, can anyone seriously threaten them from below?
I expect Cincy to get four points out of their last two games - less than three would move me to question how I spend my free time – and either total rules out Charlotte and Atlanta (even two points blots out all but the most absurd scenarios). That leaves Columbus and Miami as live threats and, sure, if Cincinnati stalls, both could get over them...and I’m not even gonna try to puzzle out how the tie-breakers work when teams end tied on points – and I don’t think that’ll matter much where Cincy’s concerned. Despite their respective games in hand, neither Columbus nor Miami have easy end-runs ahead. Again, Columbus isn’t great on the road and facing one solid home team (Charlotte’s 9-6-0) plus one 50/50 proposition (Orlando is 8-8-0 at home) does not bode well – nor does home game against the Red Bulls. If you want to put money on a team stalling, Columbus isn’t a wild bet. Miami, meanwhile, will need every inch of runway their...let’s go with strong (9-3-3) home record gives them down the stretch. If I’m worried about any team bumping Cincy to 7th, it’s the Herons...
And I’ll do anyone who finds this post the favor of not pretending I’m doing anything new here, results and schedules are my bag, I’m reaching in again and generally, etc. I am, however, going to sharpen the focus to back up two half-bold statements:
Why FC Cincinnati Will Make the 2022 Playoffs; and
Why the Portland Timbers Will Make the 2022 Playoffs
I went with “half-bold” because only one of those feels at all risky. So, let’s start with the safe one:
Why FC Cincinnati Will Make the 2022 Playoffs
First, and funnily, the positional range of teams in the Eastern Conference with a reasonable shot at making the playoffs has barely shrunk since Week 32. Due respect to the New England Revolution, but they have more teams above them than places in the lifeboat – i.e., they have to win out to top out at 7th and it would take every team above them failing to make it happen. Related, I only kept Charlotte in the mix due to their game in hand. With that, here are the teams I can call alive in the East without getting shady about it, their total number of points and their remaining opponents and where they play them:
FC Cincinnati, 46 points, v CHI, @ DC
Orlando City SC, 46 points, v @ NYC, @ MIA, v CLB
Inter Miami CF, 42 points, @ TFC, v ORL, v MTL
_________________ (aka, the playoff line)
Columbus Crew SC, 42 points, v RBNY, @ CLT, @ ORL
Atlanta United FC, 40 points, @ NE, v NYC
Charlotte FC, 38 points, v PHI, v CLB, @ RBNY
First, Cincinnati has a good chance of topping that group. I’m not confident they’ll do it – and that’s with suspecting Orlando gets at most four points out of that stretch – but I also don’t see them finishing fourth or fifth as a big deal. That would (almost certainly) pit them against Red Bull New York or New York City FC in the first round, aka, a high-energy, low-scoring grind, but that can only happen if they get there. The real question is, can anyone seriously threaten them from below?
I expect Cincy to get four points out of their last two games - less than three would move me to question how I spend my free time – and either total rules out Charlotte and Atlanta (even two points blots out all but the most absurd scenarios). That leaves Columbus and Miami as live threats and, sure, if Cincinnati stalls, both could get over them...and I’m not even gonna try to puzzle out how the tie-breakers work when teams end tied on points – and I don’t think that’ll matter much where Cincy’s concerned. Despite their respective games in hand, neither Columbus nor Miami have easy end-runs ahead. Again, Columbus isn’t great on the road and facing one solid home team (Charlotte’s 9-6-0) plus one 50/50 proposition (Orlando is 8-8-0 at home) does not bode well – nor does home game against the Red Bulls. If you want to put money on a team stalling, Columbus isn’t a wild bet. Miami, meanwhile, will need every inch of runway their...let’s go with strong (9-3-3) home record gives them down the stretch. If I’m worried about any team bumping Cincy to 7th, it’s the Herons...
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| Playoff goalz. For both teams. |
...on the plus side, that would put them against Club du Foot Montreal, and Cincinnati and Montreal have played some parties in 2022. There are worst fates, in other words. Also, and unless my glance at the playoff structure didn’t take, they’d miss Philly in the 2nd round if they pulled out a wild win in Montreal. Still, barring season-altering miracles, Cincinnati will make the post-season.
Moving on now to my little team that mightn't...
Why the Portland Timbers Will Make the 2022 Playoffs
First, there is no more important game on the Timbers’ end-season calendar than the LA Galaxy v RSL this weekend. That goes double if Portland can’t get everything out of Los Angeles FC this weekend...now watch them all tie...
Before continuing, here’s where all the playoff-credible teams are going into MLS Week 33 (and they’re literally all there):
Los Angeles Galaxy, 46 points, v RSL, @ HOU
Portland Timbers, 46 points, v LAFC, @ RSL
Minnesota United FC, 45 points, @ SJ, v VAN
_________________ (again, the playoff line)
Real Salt Lake, 43 points, @ LAG, v POR
Seattle Sounders, 40 points, @ SKC, v SJ
Vancouver Whitecaps, 40 points, v ATX, @ MIN
Even if Seattle and Vancouver can still make the post-season, they can only matter if the Timbers fail to get even one point and either or both of them win out. That’s not cuckoo-bananas, not on those schedules, but, if the Timbers can’t get even one point...I mean....
Even as I acknowledge and celebrate the truth that dare not speak its name – aka, the Timbers really do hold their fate in their own hands – and the fact that they put together a good string of respectable wins before the respectable, but also comically lucky draw at Columbus, one point feels entirely too plausible for comfort. And, if that glance at the rules of competition stuck, RSL would pass the Timbers if they beat them on Decision Day 2022 should Portland get just that one lonely, all-too- plausible point.
All the teams around or above them – e.g., the Galaxy, Minnesota, even Nashville – will do what they do. For what it's worth, I expect all of them to end at 49 or 50 points. The Timbers can keep up with that, but – and because, at the end of it all, I doubt they will - Portland mostly has to stay ahead of RSL. So long as RSL doesn't beat the Galaxy in LA, the only point they really need is exactly one in Utah. And that’s why I like their chances – if only to make the playoffs. And yet I wouldn’t mind Austin in the first round.
Anyway, those are my cases. We’ll see how they play out.
Moving on now to my little team that mightn't...
Why the Portland Timbers Will Make the 2022 Playoffs
First, there is no more important game on the Timbers’ end-season calendar than the LA Galaxy v RSL this weekend. That goes double if Portland can’t get everything out of Los Angeles FC this weekend...now watch them all tie...
Before continuing, here’s where all the playoff-credible teams are going into MLS Week 33 (and they’re literally all there):
Los Angeles Galaxy, 46 points, v RSL, @ HOU
Portland Timbers, 46 points, v LAFC, @ RSL
Minnesota United FC, 45 points, @ SJ, v VAN
_________________ (again, the playoff line)
Real Salt Lake, 43 points, @ LAG, v POR
Seattle Sounders, 40 points, @ SKC, v SJ
Vancouver Whitecaps, 40 points, v ATX, @ MIN
Even if Seattle and Vancouver can still make the post-season, they can only matter if the Timbers fail to get even one point and either or both of them win out. That’s not cuckoo-bananas, not on those schedules, but, if the Timbers can’t get even one point...I mean....
Even as I acknowledge and celebrate the truth that dare not speak its name – aka, the Timbers really do hold their fate in their own hands – and the fact that they put together a good string of respectable wins before the respectable, but also comically lucky draw at Columbus, one point feels entirely too plausible for comfort. And, if that glance at the rules of competition stuck, RSL would pass the Timbers if they beat them on Decision Day 2022 should Portland get just that one lonely, all-too- plausible point.
All the teams around or above them – e.g., the Galaxy, Minnesota, even Nashville – will do what they do. For what it's worth, I expect all of them to end at 49 or 50 points. The Timbers can keep up with that, but – and because, at the end of it all, I doubt they will - Portland mostly has to stay ahead of RSL. So long as RSL doesn't beat the Galaxy in LA, the only point they really need is exactly one in Utah. And that’s why I like their chances – if only to make the playoffs. And yet I wouldn’t mind Austin in the first round.
Anyway, those are my cases. We’ll see how they play out.
All credit to this year's Cincy for making their ascension to the playoffs more assured than the Timbers'. What we Timberistas have to worry about on Sunday is LAFC's motivation level. Tied with Philly for the Supporter's Shield, they certainly have their reasons to play well against us. We'll either win by a hair or fail abjectly. Fingers crossed.
ReplyDeletePart of me wonders if the players' heads are on right - and on any team. I get that they're professionals, but I know my brain isn't ready for the playoffs yet...
ReplyDelete