 |
| Yessir, shivering, sir. |
The further into the 2023 Major League Soccer season we get, the more predictable things seem – long-term, at least. And yet there’s this...
FC Cincinnati v Portland Timbers: Shivering with Antici...pation
Cincy: 5-1-2, 17 pts., 10 gf/9 ga, 2nd in East; Last 5: TWWWL (respectable strength of schedule)
Portland: 2-4-2, 8 pts., 10 goals for, 13 goals against; Last 5: LTTLW (more respectable)
My gods, where to begin?
Last Saturday was Freaky Friday, for one: the team you were sure would lose won (hello, Portland!), while the one that begged the question, “can they do it?” answered with a sulking “no.” In their defense, I read somewhere that St. Louis wildly over-performed its xG and I feel like I get that, even if I don’t entirely get xG. So, big picture, the home team wants to get back on track while the visitors want to keep things going.
Both teams also hope to get key – or, in Portland’s case, enough – players back on the field and kicking. Cincy had to play without the three-months-from-exit Brenner and Luciano Acosta last weekend – the wild card and conductor, respectively – while the Timbers finally managed to field players they’re counting on to carry them to a good season, e.g., team talisman, Dairon Asprilla, and new Ivorian striker Franck Boli. I have no clue on Acosta’s timeline for recovery, or Brenner’s for that matter (hell, I don’t even know what kept them off the pitch), but also figure Pat Noonan will want them against a Timbers defense I rate somewhere between sufficient and good enough.
For my money, the real question comes with how much and, honestly, whether Portland has improved in terms of competence and comfort on the ball. If that’s real, Cincy will have a game on their hands. Or should. More to the point, I believe the Timbers odds of actually winning this game will follow whatever improvement they’ve made on those very basics with the persistence of a shadow.
I’m going to take Portland’s present rate of recovery as a given – a thought that means I’m treating whatever excitement I feel about Yimmi Chara and Sebastian Blanco coming back as a future event (and that “whatever” does a lot) – i.e., I expect all four of Asprilla, Boli, Evander and David Ayala to be available, I’m less worried about Ayala if Cristhian Paredes can go, etc. I doubt anyone sees Portland’s attack as a finished product, but just having Asprilla and Boli provides a focal point for it that, no offense to Nathan Fogaca (who leaves his heart and ass on the field every time), suffered from the absence early in the season, particularly when they tried Jaroslaw Niezgoda up top. The same goes for the presence of Ayala/Paredes: having players comfortable playing at a given position – e.g., a defensive, or even two-way, central midfielder - matters.
The real trouble for the Timbers begins when you understand that, until Cincinnati’s serial stumbles back in Week 8, they allowed a total of four goals all season. As broad observers know, Cincy owes its lofty place in the Eastern Conference standings to its defense, specifically, the three-man backline of Matt Miazga, Junior Mosquera and Nick Hagglund, plus ‘keeper Roman Celentano, aka, the unit that backstopped all those 1-0 wins (which, come to think of it, wouldn’t be the oddest result for this one). It’d be one thing if Portland played anything like St. Louis, the only team to roll Cincy this season, but they don’t. In fact, they play something like a dead-possum opposite of it.
 |
| The Timbers defense, a visual. |
The Timbers will let Cincinnati have the ball, because that’s what they do; if next Saturday is anything like the rest of the season, I expect Portland to defend in what I call a “melting high block” – e.g., pushing the line of engagement inside the opposition’s half, only melting away at the slightest source of heat. They’ll end by compacting and forcing Cincinnati to play through them - and here’s where personnel matters for the hosts: having Acosta not just available but well introduces the free radical with the best chance of forcing the Timbers out of that block; if Brenner’s healthy, that’s one more. I don’t think Cincy’s doomed without both players, or either of them, really, and I expect Vazquez’s speed and size to make him tricky for Portland’s center backs (I’d make Dario Zuparic his primary minder, fwiw), but I also think Cincy fans would be wise to ground their optimism, or lack of it, on who’s available. Obvious, sure, but more so.
Related to all of the above, and to very much repeat not just myself but one of the all-time great cliches in soccer, I believe this game will be won and lost in the midfield. This puts Cincy in a trickier spot, as I see it, because Junior Moreno and Obinna Nwobodo (who is real good, fwiw, Timbers fans) will have to actually win the midfield battle, while Portland will get a force-multiplier out of sinking into a compact shape. They’ll expose themselves often as they counter out of it, but they’re also playing under the profound benefit of being able to counter on the cheap. They should be able to counter with four, basically – e.g., two outside players, plus two front-runners – risking very little in every case and send one more midfielder forward as a late runner with very little risk. No promises, of course, but that seems like a fairly safe scenario for Portland and a tricky knot to untie for Cincy.
 |
| Urban legend you can't unhear. |
If I had to name the biggest threat for Cincy, I’d go with Portland’s expanded array of options on the attacking side. For Portland, I’d go with the trouble they’ve had scoring so far in 2023 (not to mention most of 2022), and coping with however high Cincinnati can raise its quality on the attacking side. All in all, I’m happy this game doesn’t look like the foreordained pummeling it appeared to be at, say, MLS Week 5.
As for the rest of MLS Week 9, I’ve broken them down into three categories: Games of Interest, Proof of Concept, and Games of Sorrow. I believe those categories explain themselves, but still fill in the blanks below. And...we’re off...
Games of Interest
Whether the quality/equality of the match up or a wild hair tickling my ass, these games just interest me.
New York City FC v FC Dallas
NYCFC: 3-2-3, 12 pts., 9 gf/9ga; Last 5: WLTTW (decent strength of schedule)
Dallas: 4-2-2, 14 pts., 11 gf/8 ga; Last 5: WLTWW (pretty soft, three home games, etc.)
Dallas has picked up points from all but the best on the road this season, so an NYC win could go a long way to building walls around Fortress Yankee Stadium. NYC has 10 points from 12 at home, so a draw should count as a win for Dallas – a scoring draw, especially.
Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC
Philly: 2-4-2, 8 pts., 10 gf/11 ga; Last 5: LLTLT (they should have four more points at least)
TFC: 1-1-6, 9 pts. 10 gf/9 ga; Last 5: WTTTT (sensing a pattern; they’ve also dropped dumb points)
Pretty simple: can Philly win a league game, or can Toronto force yet another tie? Another slip and the mystery around Philly deepens...
Nashville SC v Los Angeles FC
Nashville: 3-3-2, 11 pts., 7 gf/4 ga; Last 5: LLWTL (tough schedule; at most two more points)
LAFC: 5-0-2, 17 pts., 15 gf/5ga; Last 5: TWTWW (mildly challenging, also TCOB)
Nashville’s doing fine, but a win would make them feel finer. I don’t see it happening and that’s what makes this game interesting.
Seattle Sounders v Minnesota United FC
Seattle: 5-2-1, 16 pts., 16 gf/87 ga; Last 5: TWWWL (pretty stiff, honestly; they did well)
Loons: 3-2-2, 11 pts., 8 gf/7 ga; Last 5: WTWLL (reasonable; it’s the points they dropped at home)
In a good and sensible world, this will frame the extent to which this Sounders team can exorcise Brian Schmetzer’s frustration at another loss to the Timbers. Minnesota, needs a little momentum, which makes this a fucking terrible time to travel to Seattle. Three straight losses wouldn't exactly help, the Loons.
Atlanta United FC v Chicago Fire FC
Atlanta: 4-1-3, 15 pts., 16 gf/12 ga; Last 5: WLWTT (good at home, increasingly scrappy on the road)
Chicago: 2-1-4, 10 pts., 11 gf, 10 ga; Last 5: TWTWT (too little padding and not putting games away)
Had Chicago lost once in their last five games, I would have put this game in the category below. Big game for Atlanta, but a free point for Chicago if they can make it happen.
Proof of Concept
Here, the question is whether the team that should win does. I’ll make abundantly clear which is which.
Colorado Rapids v St. Louis CITY FC
Colorado: 1-3-4, 7 pts., 5 gf/10 ga; Last 5: LTTWT (getting soft points on the road)
St. Louis: 6-2-0, 18 pts., 20 gf/9 ga; Last 5: WWLLW (pretty good run; 12 gf/2 ga over that run, btw)
The fun question here is whether St. Louis can play their style at altitude...and what the Rapids can make of that if they can’t.
Orlando City SC v DC United
Orlando: 3-2-2, 11 pts., 7 gf/7 ga; Last 5: TLWLW (three road games, seven points)
DC: 2-4-2, 8 pts., 8 gf/12 ga; Last 5: LLTLW (they beat Montreal, and not one other team)
A game Orlando must win. Not draw, but win. If they want to preserve their pretensions.
Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC
Charlotte: 1-4-3, 6 pts., 9 gf/16 ga; Last 5: WTTLT (solid, three road games)
Columbus: 4-4-2, 14 pts., 18 gf/9 ga; Last 5: LWWWT (fairly tough stretch, pretty solid results)
A chance for Columbus to prove they can win on the road (they haven't been), a chance for Charlotte to prove they can win at home (same). Still, the proof of concept comes on Columbus’ side: trophy competitive teams win games like this.
Houston Dynamo FC v Inter Miami CF
Houston: 3-3-1, 10 pts., 9 gf/8ga; Last 5: WWLWT (all wins at home, decent teams tho)
Miami: 2-5-0, 6 pts., 6 gf/8ga; Last 5: LLLLL (does it matter, really?)
Houston should win this game, but Miami’s stinginess makes for a tough barrier (on paper). Proof of limitation is a concept...
Real Salt Lake v San Jose Earthquakes
RSL: 2-5-0, 6 pts., 7 gf/16 ga; Last 5: LLLWL (they should have three more points at least)
San Jose: 4-2-2, 14 pts., 10 gf/8 ga; Last 5: LTWTW (mostly good at home, road record sucks)
After Austin in Week 3, this looks like the easiest home game RSL has had yet...which would make a San Jose win an even bigger feather in their cap.
Games of Sorrow
One team should lose and I don’t expect anyone’s mind to change if the other one does. Or draws, for that matter.
Club de Foot Montreal v Red Bull New York
Montreal: 1-6-0, 3 pts., 3 gf/17 ga; Last 5: LLLLL, right? (does it matter?)
RBNY: 1-2-5, 8 pts., 6 gf7 ga; Last 5: WTLTT (a good team would have four more points)
It’s in Montreal, I get it, but this is very much a case of “get in line” for the Red Bulls, and one they shouldn’t squander...and yet there’s the pitiable nine goals total scored between both teams....
New England Revolution v. Sporting Kansas City
Revs: 5-1-2, 17 pts., 13 gf/7 ga; Last 5: WWTWT (Montreal aside, pretty solid; yes, even DC away)
SKC: 0-5-3, 3 pts., 2 gf/11 ga; Last 5: LLTLL (doesn’t matter; they are wildebeests)
I’ll be shocked if the Revs fail to win this by two goals, and “fail” is the key operative word.
Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin FC
Galaxy: 0-4-3, 3 pts., 5 gf/12 ga; Last 5: TTLLL (solid, but not outlandish)
Austin: 2-3-2, 8 pts., 6 gf/10 ga; Last 5: WLTLT (dropping dumb points at home is rarely a good sign)
I fully expect the Galaxy to fuck this one up. And most people will say, “it’s just Austin” if they don’t. All of which makes this an opening for Austin, just not one I see them walking through.
Those are my thoughts. We’ll see what the weekend serves up.
Well, for the Timbers- it wouldn't be Friday without new absences. No Zuparic and no Coach Gio - it's Covid protocol, per the Redditors. Zuparic, we'll miss. As for Gio, maybe substitute coach Llamosa will work as well as last week's player sub's did?
ReplyDeleteI feel your ambivalence, covering both teams. But as a Timbers guy, I would not be bothered if you pulled for Cincy. They're on some sort of roll. The Timbers are just hoping for weekly miracles with random player assortments. Which could happen again this week, for all I know...
Every time I've sat down to watch Cincinnati play Portland...think this is the third time so far(?), it just happens. Stuck pulling for Portland, for better or worse.
ReplyDelete