Portland Timbers 3-2 Minnesota United FC: Some Wild, Wholly Appropriate Shit

Behold, the "fairy tales gone bad" universe.

First, I don’t think I’ve ever seen an xG of 5.0 and, having watched this one live, I need to see MLS’s math on that. That doesn’t mean the Portland Timbers didn’t earn last night’s glorious, dramatic, come-from-behind, instant-classic 3-2 win over Minnesota United FC; that just points to how perilously close they came to fucking up the fairy-tale ending Timbers fans demanded.

The “fairy tale” piece of that relates less to the win than giving a proper send-off to long-time fan-favorite Dairon Asprilla, who played his last game in Portland Timbers green last night. I figure I’m irrelevant enough at this point to confess that I still don’t get Asprilla-mania. I do, however, accept that a genuinely stunning number of fans love him to pieces and I appreciate that love, perhaps more than the man himself. He’ll probably never make it to the Timbers’ Ring of Honor, but it somehow feels like he should; he transmuted from player to local lore over time, and in a way I doubt anyone could locate during the ten seasons he wore Timbers green (or, just as often, those rose-colored kits they wouldn’t stop wearing last season). If there’s a secret password to true Timbers fandom, I’m guessing Dairon Asprilla is part of the formula.

The fact it took some time for Portland to get going and back into last night’s game felt like a fitting tribute to The Man of the Hour (who took 5-6 seasons to bloom) – though, honestly, the first half was less about the Timbers playing like shit than going down by two goals, one of them fortunate, the other the bastard-child of a dumb mistake. For as much as they struggled to find the net and paths thereto, Portland created a couple good looks early and had players (with Felipe Mora carrying the banner) making the most out of half-chances. That doesn’t mean waving away what might have been had Minnesota not had a third goal pulled back for offside toward the end of the first half (gotta be in here, right?). That’s more about acknowledging that the general vibe wasn’t nearly as dire as it felt up to the penalty kick – earned by Mora, scored by Evander – that shoved Portland’s big toe back into the game; in keeping with that exotic xG, they had an entire foot in for most of the game.

A damned sturdy Clint Irwin made the first of his eight saves(!) immediately before the penalty kick he couldn’t keep out and, as the second half progressed, talk of wave-after-wave or pressure from the Timbers slips into the broadcast. With Minnesota barely able to get out of their own half by somewhere around the 60th minute, they game turned into a test of how much pressure the Loons could bear before they cracked and, finally, broke.

Minnesota United FC Scouting Report: The Tale of an Old Gray Mare

Why, yes, I am showing my age.

The Minnesota United FC team coming to visit this weekend ain’t the one that started 2024 with balls-a-swingin’ and shouting, “Reynoso, who?” (He's gone, apparently, off to Xolos in Liga MX.) The Loons really did roll for a while, picking up six wins over their first 10 games – and they did cap a nice run from mid-late April to mid-late May by kicking their foot up the Portland Timbers’ ass (ah, memories). That said, things have changed a bit...

Minnesota United FC
The Basics
8-6-5, 29 pts., 31 gf, 29 ga (+2); home 4-2-4, away 4-4-1; 5th in West; 11th overall
Last 10 Results: WTWTLWTLLL
Where They Played 'Em:: AHHAAHHAAH

A Narrative
After going 7-2-3 over their first (why not?) 12 games, Minnesota has slowed down to 1-4-2 in recent weeks – including dropping the last three straight games. Their schedule has been tough-ish, but getting on the wrong side of a slugfest against a woeful, stumbling FC Dallas side and picking up a red card, a…let’s call it a significant suspension (see below), plus a loss at home against Austin FC(!?) points to something that looks an awful lot like a limp in the Loons once-mighty stride. (And what do you do to a horse with a limp? All together now!)

As noted in past posts, I really am trying to tighten up these posts (and largely failing), so, without further ado let’s move on to...

10 Things I’d Tell People About Minnesota United FC, as of June 27, 2024
1) The Old Gray Mare, Etc.
Back when I was previewing FC Cincy’s opposition, I saw Minnesota coolly dismantle a Charlotte FC that has proven sturdy and effective in 2024 (e.g., currently 4th in the East and 7th overall), i.e., not at all like the team Dallas ran ahead of, or the one the Seattle Sounders absolutely stuffed (and, no, 90th minute red cards don't count). Then again…is that so surprising?

2) Minnesota Is a Team of Average
I sincerely rate, even admire a number of players on Minnesota’s roster – e.g., Robin Lod, Michael Boxall, and Dane St. Clair – but, with the exception of Lod, I wouldn’t call any of them league-elite – and Lod’s only league-elite attribute is his flexibility. Dude’s like getting a wild card in every deal. Very much related…

Checking in at MLS Week 19: Trends, Hard Facts and Notes!

Quicksand is a major theme for this one.

Welcome to the MLS Week 19 Round-Up – and, again, with 14 teams on 19 games played, 12 teams on 20 games, and the remaining teams below that, this is MLS Week (Fucking) 19.

With the rush to stack the schedule before Leagues Cup 2024, plenty of games have taken place since my last global review of “Where Things Stand” in MLS (dated May 19, 2024) – five to six for most teams, seven for some outliers, and just four for the freakshow that is Columbus Crew SC – so today felt like a good day for an update to global picture.

The format for this one departs from past editions in that I’m going to lead with some top-line trends, i.e., items that, now that we have enough season behind us, feel sticky enough to feel real. I’ll close the post with the biggest picture stats for every team in MLS – e.g., their record, the results from the past 10 games, and where they played them – plus the one thing I’d tell someone about them if they asked. Full disclosure, I’m basing that note less on deep, first-hand knowledge of any given team, than on where those biggest-picture stats suggest they’re trending. Speaking of, let’s talk about those trends:

1) The Top 3 Teams From Each Conference
All three of Inter Miami CF, FC Cincinnati and Los Angeles FC have between seven (Miami) and eight (Cincy and LAFC) wins over the past 10 games. All three of Real Salt Lake, Red Bull New York and the Los Angeles Galaxy have racked up fives wins over their past 10. A few other teams are keeping that five-win pace – e.g., Columbus Crew SC, my Portland Timbers, (stunningly) Charlotte FC, and, if in a very much less promising way, New York City FC (see No. 3 below) – but those teams are piling up those Ws from a deeper spot in the table. That’s to say, the top 3 in both conferences look pretty secure for now, even if the Red Bulls have both Charlotte and Columbus nipping at their heels (and the Red Bulls have at least one warning light flashing). The have v have-not gap feels more real in the West and, so far, involves more teams than it has in recent past seasons. We’ll see how long that holds, but to flag one detail that helps explain the widening gap between the top teams and the ones getting sucked to mid-table…

2) The Three Straight Losses Club
All seven of the following teams have lost their last three matches: DC United, New York City FC, the Philadelphia Union, Toronto FC, Minnesota United FC, the San Jose Earthquakes and Sporting Kansas City. Two of those teams – San Jose and SKC – have seen an actually horrifying number of losses fall upon them whilst looking up from the bottom of a pit, but that run of crap form has real potential to tank the 2024 season for the rest of those teams, if with the arguable exception of NYCFC. Fairly related to that…

Portland Timbers 2-0 Vancouver Whitecaps: Is This Progress?

Glad to be back home.

Five wins in the last eight games, suddenly 6th in the West sure as Brooke Shields was Suddenly Susan in a sitcom I neither watched nor fully understood in terms of concept and timing. The Portland Timbers won walking away (also) 2-0 against the Vancouver Whitecaps tonight, thereby keeping their Cascadia Cup Dreams primed for the filling and suddenly looking like they’ve learned how to put one foot in front of the other (hold that thought). Better still, JPants picked up his/the Portland Timbers' 3rd clean sheet of 2024 – which makes one wonder (hold that thought, also) – and, better than all that, the entire game played out comfy as a well-worn pair of PJs.

Hold on…

Is it new format time? Yes, it’s new format time. Also, welcome back to the old gym. Hope it smells like memories! Right, back to the new format…

If I Had to Summarize This Game for Someone
Tonight’s game started as so many have: with the Timbers laboring to play the ball out of the back and ceding both possession and control. Vancouver’s Sebastian Berhalter teed up a few solid chances over the opening 20 minutes or so and that inject a little “what could have been” into this game if, say, Fafa Picault or Alessandro Schopf (probably?) could head the ball fer shit. The Timbers snatched after floor scrapings throughout that period, with the choicest pickings coming from Jonathan Rodriguez poking a couple (feeble) shots toward goal from the back-post.

Then suddenly, some light supernatural meddling met the yips for Vancouver and, three lucky bounces and one cool finish later, Portland went up on a cool-as-you-like finish by Rodriguez. And that goal changed the game, at least in my mind. Twenty-six-plus minutes would pass before Schopf got sent off for his second stupid yellow card (gotta be in here somewhere, surely), but Vancouver was, at most, marginally better before his red card than they were after it. Felipe Mora delivered an insurance goal that made me feel as good about the assist as I did about the goal (another thought to hold), but the ‘Caps had 52+ minutes to rack up some shots and they only managed seven, with just one on goal. Vancouver barely showed up tonight, carrying forward a run of form that has seen them slip down the standings like a water buffalo struggling in quicksand.

St. Louis CITY FC 0-0 Portland Timbers: Feeling Good (No, Really) Context-Free

A young Paul Giammati was the butt of the "wNbc" bit.

I don’t actually have a ton of blow-by-blow notes for the Portland Timbers' goal-less draw at St. Louis CITY FC (“wNbc!”), even though the game amounted to a series of isolated escapes from a general muddle. In all honesty, I’m mostly thrilled to see the Timbers keep their second clean sheet of 2024.

That’s not to say St. Louis didn’t come close here and there – e.g., Timbers understudy ‘keeper, James Pantemis, made a save on a Celio Pompeu shot through a thicket of bodies toward the end of the first half and Portland came within the width of Claudio Bravo’s lower leg of going down 0-1 in the 75th minute – and even that immediately followed Eduard Lowen hitting the right far post with a free kick. Tim Parker came close with a header at the 15th too (or thereabouts), Zac McGraw had to run down a through-ball (hat-tip to Joao Klauss for whiffing the shot!), but I doubt even the most rabid St. Louis fan would argue they stormed the castle. You’ll see nearly all of that in the highlights, but about 60% of the total run-time is devoted to dudes picking up yellow cards, with most going to St. Louis.

Portland had their chances – e.g., Jonathan Rodriguez’s shot to the far post around the 3rd minute (before he largely faded into anonymity) and another shot by Evander around the 17th – but their shooting statistics and lowly xG get the story mostly right.

And yet, even if this arguably counts as the Timbers least impressive attacking performance of 2024, it might count as something just as important: one of their more coherent playing performances. Unlike countless prior outings (well, not countless; they’ve played literally 18 games, so this can be quantified), Portland players looked generally connected and less like total strangers than they have across multiple halves of multiple games this season. Given how rare (more or less) wire-to-wire competence has been this season, I see that as something to celebrate.

St. Louis CITY FC Scouting Report: In 2024, You Can Totally French the Bully

Great live band, massive goddamn loss.

This Saturday gives the Timbers yet another chance to prove they’ve earned that finger-tip’s hold on the playoff line. Staying there or, gods forbid, climbing higher means winning against teams like…St. Louis CITY FC. And I will never, never get tired of shouting “CITY” the same way Howard Stern emphasized the “N” in “WNBC” in his mediocre biopic.

The Basics & the Big Picture
3-4-8, 17 pts., 23 gf, 25 ga (-2); home 3-2-3, away 0-2-5; 11th West, 23rd overall
Last 10:    LTWTTWLLLT
Venue:      AHHAAHHAHA

St. Louis is not the punch-you-in-the-mouth-and-steal-all-your-points team they were in 2023. Confidence sustained the belief they could bully other teams into submission and I’m pretty sure that dried up by the beginning of April 2024. If not then, the beginning of May finished it off. The 2-1-7 record they had by May 5, 2024 only looks worse after a string of losses (v LAFC, @ CIN and v SEA) landed themwhere they are now (see above).

On a raw numbers level, they hew close to average for goals scored and allowed (the average across MLS is currently 24.03 goals coming and going) and their stats leaders are Joao Klauss (5 goals, 3 assists), Celio Pompeu (3 goals, 3 assists), Samuel Adeniran (2 goals, 1 assist), and Tomas Totland (2 goals, 2 assists). Also of note, their assist leader, Eduard Lowen, who has three goals (plus one assist) has played just 379 minutes this season. That’s due to a hamstring injury and doing the right thing by his wife who has had some medical issues. And good for him for doing that.

I built my impression of St. Louis CITY 2024 on stats and highlights review of the home win over Chicago Fire FC, the home loss versus Los Angeles FC, and the road loss at FC Cincinnati, plus the stats and longer looks at the home loss versus the Seattle Sounders and last weekend’s wild road draw at Inter (Asshole) Miami CF. Some details aside – e.g., I expect them to get all up in Portland the same way they did against Chicago (and Miami; honestly, MLS’s big-spending darlings basically handed them a loaded gun) – I didn’t see a ton of what Portland typically does in all my review. Still, LAFC and Seattle offered some smart pointers as to how to absorb St. Louis’ pressure and break them – e.g., they don’t have a ton of ideas outside of turning the ball over in dangerous places, so don’t let them – but, bluntly, Seattle had no goddamn business winning that game (per either numbers or eye-test). I can, however, see Portland riding out the pressure and wrecking St. Louis a la LAFC, even without a Denis Bouanga to call our own…

MLS Weakly, MLS Week 16 (Trust Me, I Did the Math): Trends and Hiccups, but Mostly Trends

The end of Hour 1. Just two hours to go.

I’m attempting to revive the MLS, Weakly concept, only with a trimmed down model.

And, goddamn Inter Miami CF and goddamn the man, yes, I’m calling this MLS Week 16. Know why? I averaged the number games played for all the teams in Major League Soccer, including the ones without Lionel Messi on the roster, and guess what said average came to? 16.1 games played.

Most weeks (assuming I ever do this again), I’m mostly looking for some combination of trends or hiccups – e.g., did [Team X] (which, here, means FC Cincinnati) keep that absurd winning streak going to jam-band states of eternity, or did [Team Y] (which, here, means Sporting Kansas City) keep eating shit like they were participating in the Nathan’s Famous on the Fifth Ring of Hell? (Yeah, I recycled that joke. Shame.)

This time, and this is because I last posted league-wide content on May 19, I’ve got three games’ worth of trends and hiccups to catch up. That said, the format/framing will look should look the same – i.e., this will just be me doing a steam-of-consciousness data-dump – and I’ll be doing the same basic thing – i.e., riffing from the last snapshot post – which is the May 19 post referenced above (LINK), where I posted little data blocks and narratives for every team in the league. Fun fact, that May 19 post referenced a similar snapshot post that went up on April 2 (LINK).

Best case, I’ll keep this going. Likeliest case, I’ll do everything wrong, abandon this and threaten to shut down this blog for what has to be the 10th time. To paraphrase the intro to Black Star’s “Brown Skin Lady,” even my neuroses have neuroses.

With that, time to dig into the meat of this thing.

Portland Timbers 2-2 Houston Dynamo FC: A Word Search

At least they got a poem out of theirs...

The Portland Timbers…what is the verb here? Held on? Stumbled? Rallied? What verb best describes what the Timbers did or failed to do last night in their 2-2 draw against Houston Dynamo FC?

Portland crafted two gilded chances to take all three points late – and crafted matters here because neither Evander’s looping shot from range nor Nathan Fogaca’s second glorious header of the night came easy (relive the agony at the end of the full highlights) – but Houston also had a good goal rightly called back for offside just four or five minutes earlier. Kamal Miller even had a second bite after Fogaca’s header. All that after the 80th minute. Chances abounded at the end, but none became the goal to decide it.

Happily (because I hate cliches), this was no tale of two halves. The game pitted Houston’s steady, if imperfect game-plan against Portland’s opportunism. That some how translated into a freewheeling, swinging arms and legs affair – and I was delighted to have it – and read as two teams taking part in a game they sincerely believed they could win. Personally, I find that equal parts satisfying and disturbing*, but the one true thing I know: the points keep slipping out of the Timbers’ hands – and, ye GODS, how the Timbers needed two more points from this one – and 2024 has left bloody stubs where my fingernails used to be.

* Here’s why: I’d argue the way Houston came out to start the game makes a pretty strong case that Ben Olsen approached Portland as a team his could break. Sebastian Kowalczyk’s early opener supported the theory – and the fact this guy came within an offside flag of scoring a brace speaks to the chaos ball on the pitch. Fast, loose and open as the game got, it never achieved true Wild-West shoot-out status. Houston’s total number of shots comes close to reflecting the number of times they put a good attack together. As for Portland…was this even a moral victory?