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| Not subtle, therefore glorious. |
Three weeks in a row on these posts, baby. Officially hell-bent for leather…
I tried to tighten up the model this week, so we’ll see how that goes (good?). The due diligence felt…decent this week, watched a respectably stupid amount of soccer, took some notes, etc. – I even cribbed some helpful quotes from Matt Doyle’s (mostly) weekly column. I won’t bore you with the viewing schedule, but I want to close the preamble with this: I’d hoped to watch the Colorado Rapids stirring, if poorly recorded, 3-2 win over Real Salt Lake, but Apple TV+ still has that result at 2-1 and with no full replay available. Maybe they had John Denver on the tapes in the grips of a Rocky Mountain High? Or was it because it looked like a 90s-throwback night, only with shit attendance as the concept?
With that, here is your Major League Soccer Week 25, Leagues Cup Eve Snapshot Review. And, by way of chelebration, I’m gonna start big. And if anyone can remember which gutter-wine company used “chelebrate” for the ad copy, you’ve got a shiny quarter coming your way. Then again, it’ll never touch Orson Welles’ finest pitches.
1) This Is Not Postseason Hope
“Montréal’s three-game unbeaten run came to an end, but they still head into the break with real postseason hopes as they’re just one point under the red line, and just three back of Toronto in 8th.”
- Matt Doyle
In a league with all an Oprah-esque approach to the postseason – you get a berth! you get a berth! you get a berth! – the bare act of making the playoffs just means the local fans aren’t blushing at the end of the regular season. “Postseason hope" should mean exactly one thing: making the playoffs with an actual shot at doing something once you get in. Club du Foot Montreal has just three wins over their past eighteen (18) games. As you’ll see below (at No. 8), the bar for entry in the Eastern Conference hangs lower than the Count de Monet’s cuffs and Montreal’s just one of many teams who will, barring a miracle or a couple miraculous acquisitions, see their foot cut off the second it steps onto any playoff pitch they play over their heads to crash. That’s hardly unique, of course. Atlanta United FC looked genuinely good against a hot-streakin’ Columbus Crew SC in this weekend’s 2-1 win, but they’re still yo-yoing up and down in the middle of nowhere in the East. FC Dallas presents an even starker example, thanks to their recent revival – e.g., 5-3-2 in their last 10. That would matter if they could win a game on the road. Just one. So, again, when I use phrases like “postseason hopes,” I’ll be using it specifically.
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| Voted most likely to get me sued... |
“New York City FC manager Nick Cushing had his team change their pressing triggers and line of confrontation throughout, which did a nice job of preventing Orlando from building any rhythm.”
- Matt Doyle
One has to think a number of teams at least attempt a similar system, but that’s a really eloquent explanation of the concept. And it is worth noting in the context of NYCFC’s result in Orlando this weekend: I know I slept on this, but Orlando rolled into last weekend’s game against NYCFC with five wins over the past six games. It wasn’t a “rock-‘n’-roll-all-night-and-party-ev-e-ry-day” romp through the cream of the East – the five wins, in order: v CHI, @ TFC, v DC, @ NE, @ NSH (see No. 9) – but that still amounts to taking care of business in a way that would do Elvis proud. Another way to look at that: did NYC just run the ruler against Orlando’s real-world level. (Fwiw, Orlando is 7th in the East, 15th overall.)
3) This Is How Good Defensive Teams Work
“Finding and winning the little moments like those – turning them into big moments – are why Charlotte are where they are in the standings."
- Matt Doyle (last one, promise)
Charlotte FC doesn’t have the best defense in the league…sorry, that’s a shit head-fake. Point in fact, they have the second best defensive record in MLS in terms of goals allowed, somewhere around 20 of the league’s teams aren’t even close to them, and they’re nearly 12 goals better than the MLS average for goals allowed – i.e., they’ve allowed 27 against the league average of 38.9. Charlotte doesn’t score much – straight-talk this time; just four teams have scored as many or fewer goals than them – but that doesn’t matter so much when a team defends like that. While they may need to slip a little nitrous (or performance-enhancing drugs) into that O if they want to have Conifers & Citrus Confirmed “Postseason Hopes,” they just wrapped up a three-game road trip at FC Cincinnati, Columbus and Austin FC with five points of nine in their account. And the glance I saw of their draw at Austin says they should have won it.
4) Cascadia Rising? Just a Wobble?
(Was it?) last week, I talked up great runs for all three Cascadia teams – e.g., the Portland Timbers, the assholes (aka, the Seattle Sounders) and what’s their faces (aka, the Vancouver Whitecaps) – and speculated about how far they’d rise. Without leaning too far into all three teams eating shit on the same weekend – i.e., it’s just one loss for each, all three have plenty of wins in front of it, and, Seattle excepted, they all came close/tried – one detail feels worth acknowledging, if grudgingly: both Portland and Seattle got tested by the West’s best and they both fell short (fwiw, my notes on LA v Portland). Vancouver stumbled late versus Houston, of course (neat game, if you’ve got the time/interest), but Dynamo FC is getting back into it and they’re the San Antonio Spurs of MLS, aka, sturdy and drunk-on-fundamentals. To give an example of how I define by “Postseason Hopes”: I’m pretty confident Houston can make the playoffs and just as confident that they’d win one game and that any team that beats them will have to earn it. So, yeah, tough weekend for Cascadia teams, but they all played tough opposition.
5) LAFC’s Two in Hand
As hinted at above, Seattle didn’t do so good against LAFC at home. I didn’t see the full 90, but the parts I watched showed a Sounders team straining mightily to do very little and LAFC counter-punching their way to a K.O. with disturbing ease. That same LAFC team presently sits on 47 points, with two games in hand on the West's first-place Los Angeles Galaxy and just two-to-five points to make up, and one game in hand against the best teams in the East. They have some tricky games ahead, but this is a good team.
6) I Can Name One Team They’ll Catch…
At midnight (Eastern time), they sat on top of MLS and the sunbaked carcass of Inter Miami CF (and there was great rejoicing): FC Cincinnati have come back to Earth with a thud since. That’s hardly a surprise given a backline that makes the word “makeshift” do a lot of lifting (check out what they attempted at Red Bull Arena in last weekend’s 1-3 loss), but the teams they’ve played over their last three games bears noting: v CHI, v CLT, and @ RBNY. That’s a bad run for any competitive team, never mind a contender.
7) [These Weeks] Big Climber!
To paraphrase the inimitable Brian Dunseth, the Philadelphia Union rose, like a salmon, in the Eastern Conference standings over the past two match-days. Did they play (with respect and affection) crappy teams? Yes. Yes, they did – and at home both times. Still, the Union kicked the shit out of the New England Revolution (5-1) then Nashville SC (3-0). Here’s why that matters…
8) This Fucking League, Man…
Those two wins raised Philadelphia to 27 points and 10th in the East (also, 21st overall). That puts them just one point behind Atlanta (see No. 1 above) and two points behind Toronto FC; hell, even with the impressive run noted above, Orlando’s just seven points ahead of them. Which brings me to the wild/stupid thing about this league: two wins has DC United just two points behind Atlanta – and that’s after an 11-game winless streak where they went 0-8-3. It’s not just the East, either: Minnesota slogged ignominiously to an 0-7-2 record over the nine games prior to last weekend’s win over the San Jose Earthquakes (see No. 10), but there they are, three points behind the Timbers and in the last wild-card spot because, hey, they get a berth too. Even at the risk of implicating the Timbers…none of that is right. Losing streaks used to mean something in this country…
9) A Losing Streak with a Special Meaning
Nashville is, politely, falling the fuck apart, 0-6-0 over their past six and with a goal differential that looks like bad math – i.e., 3 goals for against 16 goals allowed, i.e., not even one for every four. When I saw their current -13 goal differential, I asked myself, has Nashville ever ended a season with a negative goal differential? Nope. Not since joining MLS. They had a +22 in 2021. A new world for them, and not a brave one. Very much related, I saw the same level of Spiderman-pointing disarray in the goals they allowed at Philly last weekend that I saw in their loss at Portland a couple weeks ago. It really is a mess. And yet…
10) Are They Dead Yet?
An almost implausible rash of injuries (probably) throttled New England’s hopes of recovering their 2024 season; San Jose and St. Louis CITY FC, meanwhile, have only heard what a flicker of hope looks like from travelers passing through their blighted lands. Without really delving into it…all three of these teams are totally fucked…right? I mean, San Jose is like looking Despair in the eye right now, but the other two…they’re fucked too, right?
And…that’s it. Fwiw, I got closer to The Model That Lives in My Mind, but I feel like I got the length close as I can get, while getting carried away at the same time. Hope it’s enjoyable, informative and matches the curtains where you live. We’ll see what the Leagues Cup yields. Till the next one…
Charlotte FC doesn’t have the best defense in the league…sorry, that’s a shit head-fake. Point in fact, they have the second best defensive record in MLS in terms of goals allowed, somewhere around 20 of the league’s teams aren’t even close to them, and they’re nearly 12 goals better than the MLS average for goals allowed – i.e., they’ve allowed 27 against the league average of 38.9. Charlotte doesn’t score much – straight-talk this time; just four teams have scored as many or fewer goals than them – but that doesn’t matter so much when a team defends like that. While they may need to slip a little nitrous (or performance-enhancing drugs) into that O if they want to have Conifers & Citrus Confirmed “Postseason Hopes,” they just wrapped up a three-game road trip at FC Cincinnati, Columbus and Austin FC with five points of nine in their account. And the glance I saw of their draw at Austin says they should have won it.
4) Cascadia Rising? Just a Wobble?
(Was it?) last week, I talked up great runs for all three Cascadia teams – e.g., the Portland Timbers, the assholes (aka, the Seattle Sounders) and what’s their faces (aka, the Vancouver Whitecaps) – and speculated about how far they’d rise. Without leaning too far into all three teams eating shit on the same weekend – i.e., it’s just one loss for each, all three have plenty of wins in front of it, and, Seattle excepted, they all came close/tried – one detail feels worth acknowledging, if grudgingly: both Portland and Seattle got tested by the West’s best and they both fell short (fwiw, my notes on LA v Portland). Vancouver stumbled late versus Houston, of course (neat game, if you’ve got the time/interest), but Dynamo FC is getting back into it and they’re the San Antonio Spurs of MLS, aka, sturdy and drunk-on-fundamentals. To give an example of how I define by “Postseason Hopes”: I’m pretty confident Houston can make the playoffs and just as confident that they’d win one game and that any team that beats them will have to earn it. So, yeah, tough weekend for Cascadia teams, but they all played tough opposition.
5) LAFC’s Two in Hand
As hinted at above, Seattle didn’t do so good against LAFC at home. I didn’t see the full 90, but the parts I watched showed a Sounders team straining mightily to do very little and LAFC counter-punching their way to a K.O. with disturbing ease. That same LAFC team presently sits on 47 points, with two games in hand on the West's first-place Los Angeles Galaxy and just two-to-five points to make up, and one game in hand against the best teams in the East. They have some tricky games ahead, but this is a good team.
6) I Can Name One Team They’ll Catch…
At midnight (Eastern time), they sat on top of MLS and the sunbaked carcass of Inter Miami CF (and there was great rejoicing): FC Cincinnati have come back to Earth with a thud since. That’s hardly a surprise given a backline that makes the word “makeshift” do a lot of lifting (check out what they attempted at Red Bull Arena in last weekend’s 1-3 loss), but the teams they’ve played over their last three games bears noting: v CHI, v CLT, and @ RBNY. That’s a bad run for any competitive team, never mind a contender.
To paraphrase the inimitable Brian Dunseth, the Philadelphia Union rose, like a salmon, in the Eastern Conference standings over the past two match-days. Did they play (with respect and affection) crappy teams? Yes. Yes, they did – and at home both times. Still, the Union kicked the shit out of the New England Revolution (5-1) then Nashville SC (3-0). Here’s why that matters…
8) This Fucking League, Man…
Those two wins raised Philadelphia to 27 points and 10th in the East (also, 21st overall). That puts them just one point behind Atlanta (see No. 1 above) and two points behind Toronto FC; hell, even with the impressive run noted above, Orlando’s just seven points ahead of them. Which brings me to the wild/stupid thing about this league: two wins has DC United just two points behind Atlanta – and that’s after an 11-game winless streak where they went 0-8-3. It’s not just the East, either: Minnesota slogged ignominiously to an 0-7-2 record over the nine games prior to last weekend’s win over the San Jose Earthquakes (see No. 10), but there they are, three points behind the Timbers and in the last wild-card spot because, hey, they get a berth too. Even at the risk of implicating the Timbers…none of that is right. Losing streaks used to mean something in this country…
9) A Losing Streak with a Special Meaning
Nashville is, politely, falling the fuck apart, 0-6-0 over their past six and with a goal differential that looks like bad math – i.e., 3 goals for against 16 goals allowed, i.e., not even one for every four. When I saw their current -13 goal differential, I asked myself, has Nashville ever ended a season with a negative goal differential? Nope. Not since joining MLS. They had a +22 in 2021. A new world for them, and not a brave one. Very much related, I saw the same level of Spiderman-pointing disarray in the goals they allowed at Philly last weekend that I saw in their loss at Portland a couple weeks ago. It really is a mess. And yet…
10) Are They Dead Yet?
An almost implausible rash of injuries (probably) throttled New England’s hopes of recovering their 2024 season; San Jose and St. Louis CITY FC, meanwhile, have only heard what a flicker of hope looks like from travelers passing through their blighted lands. Without really delving into it…all three of these teams are totally fucked…right? I mean, San Jose is like looking Despair in the eye right now, but the other two…they’re fucked too, right?
And…that’s it. Fwiw, I got closer to The Model That Lives in My Mind, but I feel like I got the length close as I can get, while getting carried away at the same time. Hope it’s enjoyable, informative and matches the curtains where you live. We’ll see what the Leagues Cup yields. Till the next one…
This column, discussing teams hovering around the playoff cut, makes me think how our Timbers are now a long way mentally from being 'the new kid in town'.
ReplyDeleteWe went through a heady number of years in the beginning when our mission statement was, "Mediocre on the pitch; unmatched off of it." Then a Cup-winning moment when team and fans were both clicking. Now the Common Era - low expectations with some battered fan syndrome, where any encouraging signs cause Cup fantasies.
I doubt that we could regain that self-congratulating 'soccer city' vibe of twelve years ago. We're a mature organization, not the quirky new guys who'll show the league how to do it. We're more a normal, good-fans-and-team soccer club.
Sorry. I should follow your example and restrict myself to the week-by-week action. It's much saner.
This was kind of fascinating, actually. The zeitgeist around Timbers fandom has shifted, for sure. Whether they're actually less at the center of it, or if I'm just off the soc-med platforms where they communicate, the Timbers Army definitely doesn't feel like the all-consuming focal point for of the early-/mid-2010s. It could also be that I've just aged out of noticing it. Definitely worth wondering about - and this blog is still Timbers-centric, so this comment totally comes in. I even meant to include a "what it all means for the Timbers section for this post, if just to keep them front and center, but then sleep (and, who knew? insomnia) came for me. Still working on the timing of these posts...
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